Q3 2021
Utah continues to lead the nation with increasing job growth, jumping to 3.5% in the third quarter for two straight years of increases. Business leaders were mixed on their outlook for the future with almost an even split: 51% expecting better conditions and 49% expecting conditions to be the same or worse. Executives are also looking at headwinds for their own industry for the coming six months but expect firm profits to rise over the coming year. The outlook remains mixed for the immediate short-term due to structural factors weighing on the economy. Inflation remains a concern, with two-thirds of respondents expecting prices to remain higher for the longer term. Utah’s near record low unemployment rate means companies are continuing to face workforce shortages while Continued on page 5
CEOutlook
The Salt Lake Chamber's CEOutlook Confidence Index decreased from 74.3 in 2021-Q2 to 65.9 for 2021-Q3. 4.0% 3.0%
3.1% 2.9%
2.6%
3.1% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.1% 2.9% 2.9% 2.7% 2.5%
2.0% 1.0%
3.5%* 2.3%*
1.8% 0.8%*
2.5%*
1.7%*
0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0%
-2.6%*
80.0 70.0 66.3 62.8 61.2 59.4 62.0 60.6 62.4 62.3 60.9 60.1 55.5 53.2 60.0 53.3
75.3 74.3 57.358.9
65.9
Optimism
Year-Over Job Change
50.0 40.0
32.3
30.0
Concern
The CEOutlook Index dropped for a third consecutive quarter this year with a rating of 65.9, down from a 74.3 in the second quarter. Much of the drop was attributed to the coronavirus Delta variant resurgence and growing concerns for other possible variants. For context, confidence remains above average and is 2x the lowest point of the index at the beginning of the pandemic. This continued drop signals that executives are concerned about the uncertainty caused by the lingering pandemic along with supply chain woes and workforce shortages.
Confidence Index and Job Change
Confidence Index
Derek B. Miller, President and CEO, Salt Lake Chamber
20.0 10.0 0.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020 2019 2018 2017 2021 *Q2 calculated on 2-year percent change
The Salt Lake Chamber’s CEOutlook Confidence Index is based on responses to the four standard questions included in each quarter’s survey (Questions 1-4). The Index can range from 0 to 100. A score below 50 indicates executives believe the economy will worsen; a score above 50 indicates a belief among executives that the economy will improve. Source: Index is produced from the Salt Lake Chamber’s CEOutlook with support from the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, including analysis of the employment data prepared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Natalie Gochnour, Director and Chief Economist, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute and Salt Lake Chamber The CEOutlook index slipped to 65.9 in the third quarter, as the Delta variant surged and concerns developed that we are not out of the pandemic just yet. This quarter’s index tallies well above the 32.3 low point recorded when the pandemic began and remains higher than average for the period. This strength signals that business leaders are more confident in navigating the new coronavirus variant. Utah remains the nation’s bright spot in terms of job growth, leading the nation at 3.5% two-year growth. Only two other states—Idaho and Arizona—experienced positive change during this period. The nation contracted by 2.1% on average. Utah’s unemployment reached near record lows of 2.5% in the third quarter, significantly less than the nation’s 5.1% unemployment rate. Risks to the outlook include global supply chain disruptions that continue to pressure prices, Utah’s labor shortage, and rising COVID cases as we progress into the holiday season. Utah is well positioned for these challenges, as our businesses, residents, and state leadership have proven time and time again just how resilient the Beehive State can be. Third Quarter
I 2021