__MAIN_TEXT__
feature-image

Page 1

Q1 2020

Methodology

The Salt Lake Chamber is Utah’s largest and longest-standing business association. A statewide chamber of commerce with members in all 29 Utah counties, the Chamber represents the broad interests of the state’s 63,000-plus employers, which employ more than 1.4 million Utahns. This includes thousands of members and their employees. The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah develops and shares economic, demographic and public policy data and research that help individuals and the community make informed decisions. Housed in the David Eccles School of Business, the Institute seeks to be a vital gathering place and center for independent economic, demographic and public policy thought leadership that helps the Utah economy to prosper. The Institute is a strategic partner with the Salt Lake Chamber in serving Utah.

2020

I First Quarter

For More Information Heidi Walker COO, Salt Lake Chamber 801-328-5081, hwalker@slchamber.com Natalie Gochnour Director and Chief Economist, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute and Salt Lake Chamber 801-585-5618, natalie.gochnour@eccles.utah.edu Marin Christensen Research Associate, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 801-581-6521, marin.christensen@utah.edu

CEOutlook

The Salt Lake Chamber partners with the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah to design, tabulate and assist in analyzing the survey. Sixty business executives from Utah’s fourteen major industries are asked to respond to 6-8 questions, depending on their responses, about their company and Utah’s economic performance. Respondents are selected by each industry’s contribution to the Utah economy. Panelists come from a range of firm sizes and locations within Utah.

CEOutlook

The Salt Lake Chamber’s CEOutlook Confidence Index decreased slightly from 61.2 in 2019 Q4 to 59.4 for 2020 Q1, as executives report economic conditions holding steady. 4.0% Year-Over Job Growth

3.5% 3.0%

3.0%

3.4%

3.1%

3.0%

3.3%

3.4%

3.2%

3.1%

3.4% 2.9%

3.0%

2.5%

2.5%

2.6%

2.0%

70.0

66.3

62.8

62.0

60.6

62.4

62.3

60.9 55.5

60.0

61.2

60.1 53.2

59.4

53.3

Optimism

80.0

50.0 Concern

The Salt Lake Chamber’s CEOutlook is a statewide economic survey of Utah business executives. Modeled after other national business sentiment surveys, it provides a forward-looking view of the Utah economy. The results of the survey are intended to help business and community leaders make informed decisions about likely future economic conditions. The survey will continue to be evaluated through 2020 to assess its predictive value.

Confidence Index and Job Growth

Confidence Index

About the Salt Lake Chamber’s CEOutlook

40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

2017

Q2

Q3

2018

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

2019

Q4

Q1 2020

The Salt Lake Chamber’s CEOutlook Confidence Index is based on responses to the four standard questions included in each quarter’s survey (Questions 1-4). The Index can range from 0 to 100. A score below 50 indicates executives believe the economy will worsen; a score above 50 indicates a belief among executives that the economy will improve. Source: Index is produced from the Salt Lake Chamber’s CEOutlook with support from the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, including analysis of the Utah Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Respondent Industry Make Up • Arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation, and food services • Construction • Educational services, health care, and social assistance • Finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing • Information

• Manufacturing • Mining • Other services, except government • Professional and business services • Retail Trade • Utilities • Wholesale Trade

First Quarter

I 2020


30% 45%

Better

A Look Back and to The Future

DoN=38 you expect the overall headcount at your company to increase, decrease or stay the same over the next 12 months?

How would you describe the current economic conditions in Utah compared to six months ago? How would you describe the current economic conditions in Utah compared to six months ago? What is your expectation for economic conditions in Utah six months from now? What is your expectation for economic conditions in Utah six months from now? 80.0

70.0

Confidence Index

60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0

67.0

70.0

Confidence Index

80.0

60.0

66.1

65.0

66.1 61.7

50.059.2

Better

58.8

65.0 61.7

64.2 61.4

64.4

65.0

58.8 61.4

64.2

65.0

55.6 58.8

61.4 55.6

61.4 55.5

55.5 50.0

50.0

50.0 56.3

45.6

58.8 50.0 54.8

59.0

56.3 57.7 45.6 48.2

54.8 56.6 48.2 52.6

59.0 57.7

56.6 52.6

0.0 Q1

Q2

Q1

Q3

Worse

Q2

Q4 2017

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q3

Q2

2018

Q4 2018

Q3

Q1

Q4

Q2

Q1

Q3

Q2

2019

Q4 2019

Q3

Q1 2020

Q4

Q1 2020

11%

11%

21%

21% Same Better

37% 34%

45% 37%

53% 45%

N=38

Q4 2017

42%

9% Q1

8%

53%

43% 3%

Increase

Q2

62% 47%

48%

41%

45%

48%

6%

8%

5%

3%

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3 Decrease

36%

2018

Stay the same Increase

41%

46%

2%

3%

Q3

Q4

2019 Decrease

Worse

21% 16%

Same

21%

30%

Better

50% 8% Q1 2020

Stay the same

Q1 2020

The Federal Reserve (FED) cut rates three times in 2019. Do you expect the FED to decrease, hold steady, or increase rates in 2020? 13%

Hold steady

82% 5%

42% 72.3 50% 8% 55.9 Q1 2020

Q1 2020

What emerging trends, risks and other factors do you think may have a positive or negative impact on Utah’s economy in the next 12 months? Coronavirus Lack of available workforce Concerns about affordable housing and environment National election may have an impact Tax reform next year Available labor pool for semi-skilled labor positions. Affordable housing for needed workforce and community growth. Labor shortage and wage increase pressure Low unemployment is a drag on growth Continuing trade war

34% 30% 45%

With a target range for the federal funds rate now at 1.5% to 1.75%, do you think the U.S. monetary policy is well-positioned for an economic slowdown? Why or why not? No (17)

Yes (9)

With yesterday’s emergency cut, the fed will have very few options available to it. This is a concern if there is some slowdown.

Yes, I do believe monetary policy is being effectively administrated by the Fed. I do have a concern, however, that any further cuts in the federal funds rate will have a minimal effect on the overall economy.

No, the US is poorly positioned: Federal budget deficit is at an all-time high (despite good economic times) and the Fed rates are already low. The federal government has very little room to counter ANY downturn. No. Not enough meat on the bone in case of a slowdown The current fed funds rate target is reasonable (based on available data). However, monetary policy, alone, is not sufficient to address other serious structural problems that will likely have a negative impact on the economy.

All things being equal it is set to support the current economic growth and positive results currently being enjoyed in the economy. Yes. Interest rates are relative. We need better fiscal policy that removes $1 trillion deficits. Yes. We are well-positioned as long as the below items stay strong: stock market increasing, low unemployment rates, and strong 401K programs. Yes. It’s been expected, but economy still strong, no real signs of slow down in the short term.

45% 54%

N=38

42%

34%

16% 34%

51%

56%

TIMELY TOPICS

Increase

Confidence Index

Better

2020 Q1*

Confidence Index

Same

10%

34%

Decrease 53%

What is your expectation for your own industry six months from now? What is your expectation for your own industry six months from now? What are your expectations for your firm's profits in the next 12 months? 62% What are 70% your expectations for your firm's 57%profits in the next 12 months? 62% 41% 60% 54% 53% 51% 80.057% 45% 41% 54% 53% 48% 47% 42% 69.7 51% 48% 80.0 45% 50% 47% 68.5 72.3 66.4 67.9 66.0 69.7 40% 70.0 48% 63.3 64.1 68.5 45% 66.4 61.9 46% 67.9 61.743% 59.3 66.0 48% 61.3 45% 56% 41%61.4 70.0 46% 45% 64.1 63.3 30% 43% 56% 61.9 61.7 34% 61.3 41% 61.4 59.3 36% 45% 50% 36% 64.3 20% 60.034% 62.5 60.0 10% 63.6 9% 64.3 8% 59.9 59.7 62.5 58.1 59.4 6% 10% 10% 50.0 9% 57.8 5% 8%3% 58.3 8% 63.6 3% 3% 2% 59.9 59.7 3% 58.3 58.1 6% 3% 3% 2% 53.1 57.85% 53.1 59.4 55.9 50.0 0% 53.1 48.2 Q4 40.0 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 53.1 48.2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q4 Q1 Q4 40.0 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 2020 30.0 30.0 Increase Decrease Stay the same Increase Decrease Stay the same 20.0 20.0 10.0 10.0 0.0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 0.0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 2020

Worse

45%

54%

50%

Industry vs. Firm Expectations 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

57%

45%

20.0

N=38

N=38

61.7

61.7

70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

10.0

2020 Q1*

Same

59.2

64.4

30.0

2017

Worse

65.9

40.0

10.0 0.0

65.9

67.0

54%

54%

*Data for all quarters available online here: chamber.org/CEOutlook

2020

I First Quarter

CEOutlook

42%

CEOutlook

First Quarter

I 2020

Profile for Salt Lake Chamber

CEOutlook 2020-Q1  

The Salt Lake Chamber’s CEOutlook is a statewide economic survey of Utah’s foremost business executives. As an authoritative business survey...

CEOutlook 2020-Q1  

The Salt Lake Chamber’s CEOutlook is a statewide economic survey of Utah’s foremost business executives. As an authoritative business survey...

Recommendations could not be loaded

Recommendations could not be loaded

Recommendations could not be loaded

Recommendations could not be loaded