News Trends Contributors Record year for real estate Opinion Business Briefs Business People Almanac
OctOber 14-27, 2021
The Business Times
Page 15
INDICATORS AT A GLANCE
n Business filings
s New business filings in Colorado, 39,252 in the second quarter, up 25.7% from the second quarter of 2020.
n Confidence
t Consumer Confidence Index 109.3 in September, down 5.9. t Leeds Business Confidence Index for Colorado, 56.1 for the fourth quarter, down 11.2. t National Federation of Independent Business Small Business Optimism Index 99.1 for September, down 1.0.
n Foreclosures
t Foreclosure filings in Mesa County, 2 in September, down from 8 in September 2020. t Foreclosure sales in Mesa County, 2 in September, down from 3 in September 2020.
n Indexes
t Conference Board Employment Trends Index, 110.35 for September, down 0.33. s Conference Board Leading Economic Index 117.1 for August, up 0.9%. s Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing, 61.1% for September, up 1.2%.
n Lodging
s Lodging tax collections in Grand Junction, $211,635 for August, up 75.9% from August 2020.
n Real estate
t Real estate transactions in Mesa County, 510 in September, down 9.9% from September 2020. s Dollar volume of real estate transactions in Mesa County, $205 million in September, up 14.5% from September 2020.
n Sales
s Sales and use tax collections in Grand Junction, $5.9 million for August, up 18.2% from August 2020. s Sales and use tax collections in Mesa County, $4.23 million for September, up 16.9% from September 2020.
n Unemployment t Mesa County — 5.7% for August, down 0.8. t Colorado — 5.9% for August, down 0.2. t United States — 4.8% for September, down 0.4.
Dollar volume of Mesa County transactions climbing to new heights Phil Castle
The Business Times
A combination of higher prices and large commercial transactions has pushed one measure of real estate activity to new heights in Mesa County. With three months still left in 2021, the dollar volume of real estate sales has reached a record $1.729 billion. That tops the previous peak of $1.72 billion in 2006. While the pace of transactions has slowed in recent months, dollar volume still could Robert Bray surpass $2 billion by the end of 2021. “It’s still extremely healthy,” said Annette Young, administrative coordinator at Heritage Title Co. in Grand Junction. Robert Bray, chief executive officer of Bray Real Estate in Grand Junction, said he’s not surprised given higher home prices and an increase in commercial activity. Meanwhile, a softening in residential activity and increase in inventory offers more and better selection. Annette Young “It’s good news for buyers.” Young said 510 transactions worth a total of $205 million were reported in Mesa County in September. While transactions decreased 9.9 percent compared to the same month last year, dollar volume increased 14.5 percent. Twenty large transactions accounted for a combined $42 million, Young said. They included the sale of two deeds for the Subaru dealership and service center in Grand Junction for a total of $13.3 million, an industrial property in Fruita for $3.8 million and a luxury home on 18 acres in Whitewater for $2.8 million. Through the first three quarters of 2021, 4,711 transactions worth a total of nearly $1.73 billion were reported. Compared to the same span in 2020, transactions increased 15.6 percent and dollar volume rose 38.7 percent. Just 127 large transactions accounted for a combined $276 million. If real estate sales continue at the same pace through the
fourth quarter, 2021 will conclude with 6,281 transactions worth a total of more than $2.3 billion. Real estate activity peaked in Mesa County with 7,198 transactions in 2005 and $1.72 billion in dollar volume in 2006. According to numbers Bray Real Estate tracks for the residential market in Mesa County, 341 transactions worth a combined $132 million were reported in September. Compared to the same month last year, transactions retreated 9.3 percent and dollar volume advanced 4.8 percent. Year-to-date residential activity for 2021 still outpaces 2020. Through September, 3,097 transactions worth a total of more than $1.1 billion were reported. Compared to the same span last year, transactions rose 4.5 percent and dollar volume rose 23.2 percent. Bray said he suspects some buyers have taken a break in recent months from what previously was a “frenzy” of competition that often included multiple offers above listing prices. Residential inventories remain below last year, but increased in September for the first year-over- year gain since July 2017. That’s a reflection of more inventory left on the market and an increase in new listings, Bray said. Still, low supplies and high demand pushed prices higher over the past year. The median price for homes sold through the first three quarters increased 15.1 percent to $328,000. New home construction lagged in September and for the third quarter with year-over-year declines in single family building permits issued in Mesa County. Bray said builders faced higher prices for materials as well as supply chain issues that slowed activity. However, 727 permits were issued through the first three quarters of 2021, up 26.2 percent from the same span in 2020 and on the way to what Bray expects will be a record year. Property foreclosure activity continues to decrease. Young said 21 filings and 15 sales were reported during the first three quarters of 2021. That’s down 74 percent and 42.3 percent, respectively, from the same span in 2020. The seven resales of foreclosed properties in the first three quarters of 2021 constituted less than 1 percent of all real estate transactions, well below the 10 percent threshold Young considers indicative of a healthy market. F
Small Business Optimism Index retreats A measure of optimism among small business owners has decreased even as concerns over shortages of labor and supplies increased. “Small business owners are doing their best to meet the needs of customers, but are unable to hire workers or receive the needed supplies and inventories,” said Bill Dunkelberg, chief economist of the National Federation of Independent Business. “The outlook for economic policy is not encouraging to owners as lawmakers shift to talks about tax increases and additional Bill Dunkelberg regulations,” Dunkelberg added. The NFIB reported its Small Business Optimism Index fell a point to 99.1 in September. The index is based on the results of monthly surveys of members, most of them small business owners. For September, five of 10 components of the index declined, three advanced and two remained unchanged. The proportion of those responding to the survey upon which the September index was based reporting unfilled job openings rose a point from August to a net 51 percent, a record high for the 48-year index for a third consecutive month. Asked to identify their single most important business
problem, 28 percent cited labor quality and 12 percent labor costs — both record proportions. A net 42 percent reported raising compensation, up a point to yet another record. A net 30 percent reported plans to increase compensation over the next three, up four points from August. A net 26 percent reported plans to increase employment, down six points. The share of those who said they expect the economy to improve in coming months fell five points. At a net negative 33 percent, more respondents anticipated worsening conditions. A net 28 percent reported plans to increase capital outlays in coming months, down two points to below the 48-year average reading for the index. A net 11 percent said they consider now a good time to expand, unchanged from August. The proportion of those who said they expect more sales rose another four points to 2 percent. The share of those reporting higher earnings rose a point. But at a net negative 14 percent, a bigger portion reported lower earnings. Among those reporting lower earnings, 26 percent blamed materials costs, 23 percent weaker sales and 19 percent labor costs. A net 9 percent of respondents reported plans to increase inventories, down two points. A net 10 percent said they consider current inventories too low, down a point. F
