Trends

OctOber 14-27, 2021 The Business Times News Page 15 Trends

INDICATORS AT A GLANCE n Business filings Contributors Record year for real estate s New business filings in Colorado, 39,252 in the second quarter, up 25.7% from the second quarter of 2020. Opinion Dollar volume of Mesa County transactions climbing to new heights Phil Castle The Business Times n Confidence t Consumer Confidence Index 109.3 in September, down 5.9. t Leeds Business Confidence Business Briefs A combination of higher prices and large commercial transactions has pushed one measure of real estate activity to new heights in Mesa County. Business People Index for Colorado, 56.1 for the fourth quarter, down 11.2. t National Federation of Independent Business Small With three months still left in 2021, the dollar volume of real estate sales has reached a record $1.729 billion. That tops the previous peak of $1.72 billion in 2006. Almanac Business Optimism Index While the pace of transactions has slowed 99.1 for September, down 1.0. in recent months, dollar volume still could n Foreclosures t Foreclosure filings in Mesa County, 2 in September, down from 8 in surpass $2 billion by the end of 2021. “It’s still extremely healthy,” said Annette Young, administrative coordinator at Heritage Title Co. in Grand Junction. September 2020. Robert Bray, chief executive officer of t Foreclosure sales in Mesa County, 2 in September, down from 3 in Bray Real Estate in Grand Junction, said he’s not surprised given higher home prices and an increase in commercial activity. Meanwhile, a September 2020. softening in residential activity and increase n Indexes in inventory offers more and better selection. “It’s good news for buyers.” t Conference Board Employment Young said 510 transactions worth a total of $205 million Trends Index, 110.35 for were reported in Mesa County in September. While transactions September, down 0.33. decreased 9.9 percent compared to the same month last year, dollar s Conference Board Leading volume increased 14.5 percent. Economic Index 117.1 for Twenty large transactions accounted for a combined $42 million, August, up 0.9%. Young said. They included the sale of two deeds for the Subaru s Institute for Supply Management dealership and service center in Grand Junction for a total of Purchasing Managers Index $13.3 million, an industrial property in Fruita for $3.8 million and for manufacturing, 61.1% for a luxury home on 18 acres in Whitewater for $2.8 million. September, up 1.2%. Through the first three quarters of 2021, 4,711 transactions n Lodging s Lodging tax collections in Grand Junction, $211,635 for August, up 75.9% from August 2020. worth a total of nearly $1.73 billion were reported. Compared to the same span in 2020, transactions increased 15.6 percent and dollar volume rose 38.7 percent. Just 127 large transactions accounted for a combined $276 million. If real estate sales continue at the same pace through the fourth quarter, 2021 will conclude with 6,281 transactions worth a total of more than $2.3 billion. Real estate activity peaked in Mesa County with 7,198 transactions in 2005 and $1.72 billion in dollar volume in 2006. According to numbers Bray Real Estate tracks for the residential market in Mesa County, 341 transactions worth a combined $132 million were reported in September. Compared to the same month last year, transactions retreated 9.3 percent and dollar volume advanced 4.8 percent. Year-to-date residential activity for 2021 still outpaces 2020. Through September, 3,097 transactions worth a total of more than $1.1 billion were reported. Compared to the same span last year, Robert Bray transactions rose 4.5 percent and dollar volume rose 23.2 percent. Bray said he suspects some buyers have taken a break in recent months from what previously was a “frenzy” of competition that often included multiple offers above listing prices. Residential inventories remain below last year, but increased in September for the first year-over- year gain since July 2017. That’s a reflection of more inventory left on the market and an increase in new listings, Bray said. Still, low supplies and high demand pushed prices higher over the past year. The median price for homes sold through the Annette Young first three quarters increased 15.1 percent to $328,000. New home construction lagged in September and for the third quarter with year-over-year declines in single family building permits issued in Mesa County. Bray said builders faced higher prices for materials as well as supply chain issues that slowed activity. However, 727 permits were issued through the first three quarters of 2021, up 26.2 percent from the same span in 2020 and on the way to what Bray expects will be a record year. Property foreclosure activity continues to decrease. Young said 21 filings and 15 sales were reported during the first three quarters of 2021. That’s down 74 percent and 42.3 percent, respectively, from the same span in 2020. The seven resales of foreclosed properties in the first three quarters of 2021 constituted less than 1 percent of all real estate transactions, well below the 10 percent threshold Young considers indicative of a healthy market. F

n Real estate

t Real estate transactions in Mesa County, 510 in September, down 9.9% from September 2020. s Dollar volume of real estate transactions in Mesa County, $205 million in September, up 14.5% from September 2020. n Sales

s Sales and use tax collections in Grand Junction, $5.9 million for August, up 18.2% from August 2020. s Sales and use tax collections in Mesa County, $4.23 million for September, up 16.9% from September 2020. n Unemployment

t Mesa County — 5.7% for August, down 0.8.

t Colorado — 5.9% for August, down 0.2. t United States — 4.8% for September, down 0.4.

Small Business Optimism Index retreats

A measure of optimism among small business owners has decreased even as concerns over shortages of labor and supplies increased.

“Small business owners are doing their best to meet the needs of customers, but are unable to hire workers or receive the needed supplies and inventories,” said Bill Dunkelberg, chief economist of the National Federation of Independent Business. “The outlook for economic policy is not encouraging to owners as lawmakers shift to talks about tax increases and additional regulations,” Dunkelberg added. The NFIB reported its Small Business Optimism Index fell a point to 99.1 in September. The index is based on the results of monthly surveys of members, most of them small business owners.

For September, five of 10 components of the index declined, three advanced and two remained unchanged.

The proportion of those responding to the survey upon which the September index was based reporting unfilled job openings rose a point from August to a net 51 percent, a record high for the 48-year index for a third consecutive month.

Asked to identify their single most important business problem, 28 percent cited labor quality and 12 percent labor costs — both record proportions.

A net 42 percent reported raising compensation, up a point to yet another record. A net 30 percent reported plans to increase compensation over the next three, up four points from August.

A net 26 percent reported plans to increase employment, down six points.

The share of those who said they expect the economy to improve in coming months fell five points. At a net negative 33 percent, more respondents anticipated worsening conditions.

A net 28 percent reported plans to increase capital outlays in coming months, down two points to below the 48-year average reading for the index. A net 11 percent said they consider now a good time to expand, unchanged from August.

The proportion of those who said they expect more sales rose another four points to 2 percent.

The share of those reporting higher earnings rose a point. But at a net negative 14 percent, a bigger portion reported lower earnings. Among those reporting lower earnings, 26 percent blamed materials costs, 23 percent weaker sales and 19 percent labor costs.

A net 9 percent of respondents reported plans to increase inventories, down two points. A net 10 percent said they consider current inventories too low, down a point.

Bill Dunkelberg

The Business Times

OctOber 14-27, 2021 U.S. payrolls up, jobess rate down Labor index slips

Payrolls keep growing in the United States, albeit at a slower pace, and the unemployment rate continues to drop.

Nonfarm payrolls increased 194,000 and the jobless rate dropped four-tenths of a point to 4.8 percent in September, according to the latest estimates from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The latest payroll increase was about a third of the average monthly gain of 561,000 through the first three quarters of 2021.

Estimated payroll gains for August and July were combined upward a total of 169,000 to 366,000 and 1,091,000, respectively.

Employment has increased 17.4 million since April 2020, but remains 5 million below February 2020 and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States.

For September, 7.7 million people were counted among those unsuccessfully looking for work, down 710,000 from August. Among those, 2.7 million have been out of work 27 weeks or longer.

Another 4.5 million people were counted among those working part-time because their hours were reduced or they were unable to find full-time positions.

The labor force participation rate slipped a tenth of a point to 61.1 percent.

Employment increased 74,000 in the leisure and hospitality sector, 60,000 in professional and business services, 56,000 in retail trades and 47,000 in transportation and warehousing.

Employment decreased 144,000 in local government education with lower-than-usual back-to-school hiring.

The average workweek increased two-tenths of an hour to 34.8 hours. The average manufacturing work week remained unchanged at 40.4 hours.

Average hourly earnings rose 19 cents to $30.85 as increasing labor demand associated with recovery from the pandemic pushed wages higher.

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An index tracking labor trends has slipped, suggesting job growth could slow.

The Conference Board reported its Employment Trends Index fell 0.33 points to 110.35 in September. The decline was the first for the index in seven months.

“The chief culprit behnid lagging job growth has been the summer surge in COVID-19 infections associated with the Delta variant,” said Gad Levanon, head of the Conference Board Labor Markets Institute. F