SEQ
SOUTH EAST QUEENSLAND GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT NOVEMBER 2024
FEATURE
About RPM
RPM is at the forefront of the property industry, setting new standards in market intelligence, expertise, and creativity. With a proven track record spanning three decades, our unsurpassed market knowledge and data-driven insights have ensured our partners achieve excellent outcomes, and our clients, exceptional returns.
Our services include:
• Project Sales & Marketing
• Research Data & Insights
• Land Transactions & Advisory
Highly respected, trusted development partner
$4B+
Development land transactions
Research partner of the Urban Development Institute of Victoria
100+
A multi-disciplined team of property experts
40,000+
Lot yield on current projects
55+
Active projects across Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria
A Data Driven, Holistic Approach to Property
RPM’s Research, Data & Insights division provides in-depth analysis on current local and overseas economic and property market conditions. The team consists of economists, property experts, and GIS analysts that provide real-time market intelligence, and analytical and strategic advice.
Our knowledge and expertise are an invaluable resource for RPM’s developer clients, empowering them to make intelligent, informed, and strategic decisions when evaluating residential developments and investment opportunities.
Our data and analysis help clients maximise their marketing efforts and achieve sales targets on their estates. Each month we collect extensive data on approximately 350 estates in Victoria, 140 estates in Queensland and 180 in New South Wales, providing our clients with a comprehensive understanding of the market dynamics. This also underpins the core strategic decision-making of our own business.
We profile every lot including lot size, price, orientation, sqm rate and title status, monitoring through to final sale.
This rich data helps our team and clients to better understand:
Your dedicated research team:
Michael Staedler General Manager Research, Data & Insights
Andrew Raponi
Senior Research Manager
Research, Data & Insights
Research Manager - QLD
Research, Data & Insights
Simon Brinkman
Dollar per sqm rates
Stock release levels
Volume of stock returned to market
Volume of lots sold
Distribution of price points
Activity levels by market, product & developer
Stock level fluctuations
Distribution of lots of a particular size
Overview
• SEQ continues to face a significant housing demand-supply imbalance. Building approvals remain stagnant and available land stock is low, pushing prices higher.
• Affordability remains a barrier with only a small portion of properties accessible to median-income households.
• Close collaboration between the Queensland government and developers is the way forward; infrastructure and streamlined processes could expedite the delivery of affordable housing solutions.
The SEQ housing market continues to navigate strong demand driven by rapid population growth and increased investor activity. As we approach the end of 2024, this intense demand continues to outpace supply. Building approvals have stagnated over the past year and lot registrations are falling short of targets set by the SEQRP1. Despite government efforts to fast-track housing supply, the actual increase in new dwellings remains minimal.
Building approvals show a clear trend; while house and townhouse approvals rose by 9% and 5% respectively, apartment approvals declined by 11%.
Rising construction costs and a limited pool of building companies in SEQ are adding pressure, particularly on high rise developments, which are struggling to gain momentum beyond the planning stage. While current government initiatives favour high-density living, the high cost of construction prevent many of these
projects from progressing. Developers like Walker Corporation are a recent stand out for advancing projects that offer affordable housing and Build to Sell (BTS) apartments, helping to address some of this unmet housing needs with higher density living options.
Investor activity has surged by 24%, positioning Queensland as a more attractive investment environment than Victoria, with a larger share of new loans. However, affordability challenges persist, disproportionately affecting first home buyers. Our analysis shows that households earning the median SEQ income of $101,887 can afford only 7% of available houses and 23% of units2; these figures drop for families with children. Without a reduction in interest rates or changes in lending regulations, affordability is likely to decline further.
First home buyer activity has seen a modest rise following the state’s doubling of the state’s First Homeowner Grant to $30,000, yet it remains below levels observed during the low interest rate period. The scrapping of stamp duty by the new state government
could positively impact first home buyers who are already shifting their focus to more affordable areas like Logan-Beaudesert.
Land demand continues to outstrip supply, with less than a months’ stock available in major greenfield markets, such as Ipswich, Moreton Bay, and Logan. This scarcity has driven the median price of settled land in SEQ up 19% to $427,000 for a 455sqm lot. House and land packages remain the most cost-effective option for many buyers, though the need to reduce lot sizes to maintain affordability is increasingly evident. In response, developers are offering more compact lot sizes with dwellings aimed at $650,000 or under; meeting the budget needs of a larger population.
To address the affordability and supply gaps, Queensland can benefit from adopting elements of Victoria’s planning framework, such as the Small Lot Housing Code (SLHC) which waives the need for planning permits on lots under 300sqm. There should also be a clear focus delivering infrastructure to unlock more land and on enhancing the accessibility,
connectivity, and liveability of greenfield communities. Leveraging this approach could expedite the delivery of more affordable and highly desirable housing options in SEQ.
We encourage the newly elected LNP government to tackle these pressing challenges by collaborating with developers and councils to streamline the approval process.
Lead Indicators
Australian Indicators Queensland Indicators
Strong indication the cash rate has peaked. Unlikely to see a rate cut until Q1 2025 at the earliest. Cash Rate 4.35%
November 2024
615,300
A pickup in growth over Q1 2024 was due to an increase in overseas students. A 2.3% annual change. Population Growth (AUS)
This is the lowest annual inflation rate since Q1 2021. Consumer Price Index 2.8% Year to September 2024
Anemic rise of 0.2% over the quarter resulting from subdued domestic demand and falling investment. Gross Domestic Product 0.2%
to June 2024
Population Growth (QLD)
Remains sticky at 4.1% while participation rate remains at a record high of 67%.
The highest since May 2022 when interest rates began to rise.
2024
Up 2.5% for the year.
134,600 Year to March 2024
Remains below market equilibrium. Vacancy Rate (QLD)
Lot Registrations (SEQ)
17,873
Around half the level required under the SEQ Regional Plan.
September 2024
Unemployment Rate (QLD) 4.1%
Hovering around 3.9-4.3% over the past 12 months and remains largely in line with the national level.
September 2024
Median House Price - Brisbane
Total Dwelling Approvals (QLD)
34,920
An increase of 7.9% over the year to September.
$903,500 September 2024
A 3% increase from the previous year’s 33,769 approvals.
September 2024
SEQ Home Prices Outpace Median Incomes
Affordability remains a significant challenge in Queensland’s housing market, especially in SEQ, where rising costs and a shortage of supply have put affordable homes beyond the reach of many.
As of the 2021 Census, SEQ’s median household income was $1,765 per week. Adjusted for wage price growth, the figure is now estimated to be around $1,950 ($102,000 per year); meaning the purchasing power, based on current interest rates, for the median household is limited to homes priced below $490,0000.
However, over the past 12 months, only 5% of houses sold in SEQ were priced within this range, highlighting the limited availability of affordably priced houses. The borrowing situation is slightly better for households without children who can afford around 7% of houses based on the same assumptions. By comparsion, 23% of units were sold at or below $500,000, offering slightly more (but still relatively little) options for buyers earning the median SEQ income.
In light of these trends, the way people traditionally think of homeownership (a large house on a block of land) is evolving.
Affordability is now the most influential factor for buyers who are reconsidering what they desire in a home against their financial capabilities.
While demand for new homes remains strong, buyers’ preferences are shifting to homes with smaller footprints or those located further afield. Apartments and townhouses offer affordable options on smaller lots, and government efforts to expedite medium density developments are commendable. Yet, the majority of new housing is still anticipated to emerge from greenfield developments – as it has done so historically.
To effectively support these emerging greenfield communities, investment in the planning and creation of thriving satellite cities, walkable communities, and infrastructure to unlock more developable land is essential. We must ensure communities are built with a true vision for the future. Existing PDAs like Caboolture West, Flagstone, Ripley Valley, and Maroochydore show the potential for liveable, connected communities.
The need for strategic planning and action is undeniable. Government support is needed to unlock land, enhance infrastructure, and realise this vision on a larger scale.
$6,000 -
SEQ Home Prices Outpace Median Incomes
$4,500
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Building Approvals
In the year to September 2024, there were 34,920 buildings approved in Queensland - a slight 3% increase from the previous year’s 33,769 approvals. The approval rate across the different dwelling types varies considerably. While approvals for houses and townhouses grew by 9% and 5% respectively, apartment approvals dropped by 11%. This decline reflects increasing pressure from rising construction costs, particularly impacting high rise developments.
Count of Building Approvals
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Average Build Costs
Queensland saw an apartment boom between 2014 and 2017. During that period, the average build value of an approved apartment was comparable to a house; both sitting at around $280,000 per dwelling. Investor demand, much of it from overseas buyers, fueled this surge in apartment construction. Following this boom, regulatory changes (including increased stamp duty and land taxes for foreign buyers) began to dampen demand. Local banks also started restricting financing for foreign investors, further cooling the market.
$800,000
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
House Townhouse Apartment
Queensland Average Build Cost by Dwelling Type - 12 Month Rolling
Average Build Costs
In response, the focus shifted from investor-driven apartments to high-end apartments catering to owner occupiers, particularly empty nesters. These apartments were often more luxurious and designed for long term living, unlike the smaller, investortargeted units of the boom years.
Fast forward to 2024, and the cost landscape for apartments has changed dramatically. The average build cost for an apartment now stands at $670,766 – 39% higher than the cost to build a house, which averages $481,709.
This price difference is significant, especially considering that apartments typically offer a smaller living space compared to traditional houses.
Queensland Average Build Cost - Approvals
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Housing Finance - Owner Occupier Loans
Over the past 12 months, Queensland saw a 4% increase in owner occupier loans. Established housing (which represents the bulk of new loans) grew by just 2%, while residential land loans surged by 25% reflecting a strong increasing demand in the land market.
Housing Finance - Investor Loans
Investor loans, on the other hand, saw significant growth, rising by 24% overall. Residential land again led the way, with a 30% increase over the year. All other segments also saw growth.
September 2023 September 2024 % Change
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Housing Finance - Share of Investor Loans Across Australia
Share of Investor Loans by State
In terms of new investor loans, Queensland accounted for 23.4% of all new investor loans in the year to September 2024, slightly more than Victoria’s share of 23%.
Just four years earlier, in September 2020, Victoria and New South Wales together made up nearly twothirds of all new investor loans. However, Victoria’s share has sharply declined, particularly after the introduction of new land taxes.
This shift has benefited states like Queensland and Western Australia, where investors are drawn to more favorable tax environments, lower property prices, and stronger rental yields; making these states increasingly attractive for investment which will ease the strain on the rental market.
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
First Home Buyers in Queensland
With property prices reaching record highs, getting first home buyers into the market has become a prominent political issue across all levels of government.
In November 2023, the Queensland Government responded by doubling the First Homeowner Grant to $30,000. In addition, the new government has agreed to scrap stamp duty on all new homes for first home buyers.
Since the increased grant was introduced, applications have risen notably, with a 32% increase recorded between December 2023 and June 2024 compared to the same period the previous year. However, despite this upward trend, the total number of applications for FY2024 (3,969) remains just over a quarter of the volume seen in FY2021 (14,792), when interest rates were at their lowest and the HomeBuilder Grant was available. This suggests that while the grant is helping, it falls short of the impact seen during earlier periods of greater financial support.
The rise in property prices and reduced borrowing power have also shifted where first home buyers are entering the market. Affordable areas such as Logan-Beaudesert have seen their share of Queensland’s applications double from 12% in FY2019 to 24% in FY2024. Meanwhile, more expensive regions like Brisbane and Gold Coast have seen their markets shrink to less than half of what they were five years ago, reflecting the changing landscape for first home buyers.
First Home Buyers in Queensland
Greater Brisbane Property Market
Vacant Land Market Overview
After a prolonged period of rapid house price growth in Greater Brisbane, unit and land prices are now outpacing house prices, signalling a return to their long term relative fair value.
In Q3 2024, the median house price in Greater Brisbane dropped by 5%, falling to $903,500. Despite this decline, house prices still recorded a 7.6% increase compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, unit prices continue to rise. The median unit price increased by 2.3% over Q3 to $630,000, reflecting a significant annual growth of 18.9%.
Land prices also saw strong gains, with the median land price reaching $401,000 in Q3. Over the past year, land prices grew by 21.1%, marking the most significant increase across all property types.
Greater Brisbane Median Property Prices
Source: Pricefinder, Settled Sales Greater Brisbane -
Greater Brisbane includes: Brisbane, Ipswich, Moreton Bay, Logan, Redland, Somerset, Lockyer Valley and parts of Toowoomba and Scenic Rim.
$532,500
What does a 375sqm lot cost?
$302,000
Walloon
$345,000
Lilywood
$350,000
Deebing Heights
$335,794
Greenbank
$368,000
Burpengary
$409,900
South Ripley
$532,500
$288,000
Banya
Ormeau Hills
Flagstone
$352,900
$659,000
$370,000
$349,823
Caboolture South
Nerang
Logan Reserve
Redbank Plains
SEQ Vacant Land Market
Pictured: Sceniq Bilambil Heights - Developed by SKF Development
SEQ Vacant Land Market Overview
In Q3, the median settled land price in SEQ reached $427,000, representing a significant 11% increase for the quarter and a remarkable 26% increase over the past year.
While this figure does not account for unregistered lots sold during the period, it still reflects the strong price growth seen throughout the year.
Major markets such as Ipswich and Logan have broken through the $350,000 price point this quarter, while Moreton Bay recorded a notable 19% increase, also reaching $427,000.
Among the 12 LGAs in SEQ, only two saw a decline in median land prices over the past year. Brisbane saw a slight 1% drop, and Noosa’s price fluctuated due to low sales volumes of land.
Additionally, median land prices in SEQ increased by 8% to 455sqm. This increase is likely attributed to the sale of larger, higher-priced lots closer to registration, and we can expect this number to decrease as more lots are settled.
The median rate per square metre across SEQ stood at $925 in September, reflecting a 12% increase over the year. The Gold Coast experienced the highest growth, with rates surging by 39% to nearly $2,000 per square metre.
Median Settled Land Price $427,000
Median Land Size 455sqm
Pictured: Flagstone City
Median Price by LGA
Median Land Size by LGA (sqm)
Pricefinder Settled Land Sales <2500sqm, Extracted 10 October 2024
Note: Tables capture settled land sales by sale date. Fluctuations can occur in recent quarters due to lower volumes of registered lots.
Pricefinder Settled Land Sales <2500sqm, Extracted 10 October 2024
Note: Tables capture settled land sales by sale date. Fluctuations can occur in recent quarters due to lower volumes of registered lots.
Settled Land Sales
Pricefinder Settled Land Sales <2500sqm, Extracted 10 October 2024
Development Sites
Tim Hyland National Strategy Manager
Transactions & Advisory tim@rpmgrp.com.au
Land scarcity boosts value in SEQ development sites
SEQ’s development land market has shown strong performance this year, fuelled by sharp price increases in retail lots within major growth corridors.
Rising lot prices have bolstered developer confidence, with many seeing higher returns on land releases. This profitability has attracted more buyers – further intensifying competition.
Within the development land market, the muchdiscussed supply-demand imbalance is compounded by a shortage of large-scale sites. Most available sites are relatively small, leading developers to seek opportunities to amalgamate multiple parcels of land. These amalgamations are increasingly popular, enabling large-scale projects in otherwise fragmented areas.
Interstate developer interest is also helping to reshape SEQ’s development site landscape. Many
Victorian developers are now eyeing opportunities in Queensland, drawn by the price gap between the two states. Although Queensland’s retail lot prices have crept closer to Victoria’s, development sites can still be acquired for lower rates. SEQ development land transactions recently averaged $1.6 million per net developable hectare, compared to $2.2 million in Victoria – the disparity strengthening SEQ’s appeal among out of state buyers.
The strong development market, coupled with land scarcity, has created prime opportunities for SEQ landowners to unlock the true value of their holdings.
For those with substantial parcels, 2024 has proven particularly advantageous for capitalising on their land’s value, with prospects looking even brighter for the near future.
SEQ’s development land market is poised for continued growth, solidifying its role as a key area for both local and interstate developers.
Outlook
Queensland’s housing supply is set to remain below targets in the foreseeable future, reflecting the depth of the housing crisis.
In SEQ, median income households (earning $1,950 per week) can only afford about 5% of homes sold on the market over the last 12 months. This highlights a stark reality, and looking ahead, we call for a multi-faceted approach to the ongoing challenges.
Current government efforts have not sufficiently accelerated new housing construction where new land supply is limited by infrastructure. These limitations mean that most housing supply in the short to medium term will come from developments already underway or recently approved, likely constraining sales volumes to the rate of land releases and production rates. This supply demand imbalance will continue to drive prices upward, with affordability as the only factor tempering demand in the near term.
High construction costs and a shortage of labour, compounded by a strong pipeline of public sector projects, are placing additional pressure on new apartment supply, making greenfield developments the most viable source of new housing.
To keep these developments affordable, further reductions in both lot and build sizes are expected, creating a need for enhanced community amenities to offset the relative compactness of individual dwellings. Affordability challenges are best addressed through a mix of traditional detached houses, townhouses, and apartments in well-planned precincts with access to essential services and amenities.
We have also noted a shift in dwelling types, with approvals for houses and townhouses rising over the past year while apartment approvals have declined. Rising construction costs have made apartments more expensive to build than detached houses. This trend further emphasises the need for affordable land and diverse housing options in the form of detached homes, townhouses, and affordable Build to Sell (BTS) apartments.
One clear path forward is the endorsement of satellite cities like Springfield to provide more options for future homebuyers. PDAs such as Yarrabilba, Flagstone,
Ripley Valley, and Waraba present opportunities for developing these cities. With comprehensive planning and support, these PDAs can provide communities where people can live, work, and play without the need for long commutes. The focus should be on creating communities that are both liveable and sustainable, featuring town centres, transport nodes, and efficient connectivity.
Support from all levels of government is necessary to unlock additional affordable land, particularly in high growth corridors. The recent opening of land in the Waraba PDA (after a 15-year delay) is a promising step. A targeted approach that leverages both existing PDAs and creating new urban centres is essential. With strategic planning and collaboration among developers, councils, and government bodies, SEQ can work toward a more balanced housing market.
Clinton Trezise
Managing Director
Queensland & New South Wales clinton@rpmgrp.com.au
Peter Neale
Managing Director
Queensland & New South Wales petern@rpmgrp.com.au
For more information, please visit: www.rpmgrp.com.au
For a detailed market analysis or a tailored report, email the team at: contactus@rpmgrp.com.au
RPM’s SEQ Team
Project Sales & Marketing
Clinton Trezise
Managing Director
Queensland & New South Wales clinton@rpmgrp.com.au
Research, Data & Insights
Michael Staedler
General Manager
Research, Data & Insights m.steadler@rpmgrp.com.au
Land Transactions & Advisory
Tim Hyland
National Strategy Manager
Transactions & Advisory tim@rpmgrp.com.au
Peter Neale
Managing Director
Queensland & New South Wales petern@rpmgrp.com.au
Jasmin McDougall
Project Marketing Manager
Queensland & New South Wales jasmin@rpmgrp.com.au
Andrew Raponi
Senior Research Manager
Research, Data & Insights a.raponi@rpmgrp.com.au
Simon Brinkman
Research Manager
Queensland & New South Wales simon@rpmgrp.com.au
Megha Saha
Research Analyst
Queensland & New South Wales megha@rpmgrp.com.au
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