Retail News|October 2013|www.retailnews.ie|45
ECR Ireland Annual Conference
Pictured are Conor Kilduff, Keelings; Gary Desmond, Gala CEO; Tony Cluskey, Marketing & Promotions Manager, Gala; Alan Freehill, Grocery Channel Manager, Johnson & Johnson; and Eoin Kellett, Head of Sales, Convenience Channel, Mondelez Ireland.
The Leader’s Congress was opened by Minister for Finance, Michael Noonan, TD.
to support you by injecting confidence into Ireland and the Irish.” Balanced Assessment Professor John Fitzgerald from the ESRI provided attendees with a very balanced assessment of the current climate and possible future changes. Domestically, both households and the Government have continued deleveraging and on one of many notes of optimism at the conference, he suggested that 2013 may be the last austerity budget the country has to face. The possible economic conditions that the country faces in the next few years depend very much on external conditions. If there is another significant shock to European economies or the US, then the outlook for the domestic market would be bleak. However, on balance, Prof. Fitzgerald was hopeful that a more optimistic scenario, with EU economies showing growth of 3% to 4% for the 2015 to 2020 period, would lead to growth in the domestic market. On a strong cautionary
note, Prof. Fitzgerald told the conference that if we do see a recovery, this country needs a stable, profitable banking system that is capable of lending to customers. He also said that there is a scenario where Irish taxpayers may yet have to give the banks more money, although that is relatively unlikely. But he stressed that it is vital if Irish companies are to take advantage of any recovery, that Irish banks are extending them credit to do so. Some positive figures that point towards recovery are the significant falls in unemployment figures last year. Prof. Fitzgerald said that there is even a scenario that sees us at full employment again by 2020. 2020 could also see Ireland’s debt to GDP ratio fall to 100%, he revealed. In short, the ESRI described a number of possible outcomes for the next five to 10 years, from a zombie Europe with a lost generation of young workers, to one where the EU has completed almost full recovery by 2020. The Irish domestic market depends heavily on what
Edel Russell, Consumer and IT Director at Musgrave Retail Partners Ireland (MRPI), pictured addressing delegates.
happens internationally but at the moment the figures are giving reasons for optimism. Brian Donaldson, Chief Operating Officer, The Maxol Group, explained how the petrol retailer and forecourt operator had cash in hand, rather than debt to manage during the recession, which saw Maxol investing €66m over the last few years.
Summer 2013 was extremely good for the group and consumer spending was strong. In general, the last 12 months has seen the end of the fall in spend, according to Donaldson, although he did point out that there was a significant fall in sales in April when the property tax bill was paid and that next year, consumers will be hit with twice the amount.