Market Intelligential August 2023

Market Intelligential

COLLIER AND LEE COUNTY FLORIDA MARKET DATA SOURCED FROM LOCAL MARKET MLS STATISTICS.

EFFECTIVE DATE AUGUST, 2023

Collier County

Here are some charts that show the changes in real estate prices over time, starting from January 2020 when the Covid pandemic began. The top chart shows the median price using a 3 month rolling average, while the bottom chart displays the month-over-month price changes. On the far right of the green line, you can see the overall change from January 2020 to the effective date of this report with the blue bar indicating the total change to date.

The pricing in Collier County has risen by 68% since January of 2020 and the current trend suggests that the market has not yet experienced any decline from its peak.

Lee County

Here are some charts that show the changes in real estate prices over time, starting from January 2020 when the Covid pandemic began. The top chart shows the median price using a 3 month rolling average, while the bottom chart displays the month-over-month price changes. On the far right of the green line, you can see the overall change from January 2020 through the effective date, with the blue bar indicating the change up to the present time.

Since January 2020, pricing in Lee County has risen by 55%.

In Lee County, the monthly unit supply has remained stable at 3.8. The three-month moving price trend shows a decrease of -1.72% YoY, lower than the high of 32.5% in May 2022. Collier County's monthly unit supply is near 3.4. The three-month moving price trend increased to 7.96% YoY, 92% lower than the high of 36% in April 2022. Pending sales in both counties have fallen to pre-pandemic levels due to insurance uncertainty and interest rate increases.

• Our report now includes slides showing the change in median prices since January 2020. This data gives insights into changes in prices over time and shows whether they are increasing or decreasing from the peak. In the past year, the monthly price appreciation rate has slowed. Collier County's median pricing has increased 66% since January 2020, and Lee County's has increased 56%. Both counties experienced pricing declines after the hurricane but rebounded during seasonal months. These slides help our clients make informed investment decisions.

• Inventory remained consistent in Lee and Collier counties from July to August, with a 48% YoY increase in active inventory and a 26% decrease in 12-month rolling sales. The median asking prices are 14% higher than the Year End 2022 Median Closed Price. The Months Supply as of August 1st for both counties is 3.71 months, a 121% YoY increase, but still below the in-balance ratio of 6 months. The shift towards equilibrium is gaining momentum as pricing falls to more sustainable rates of change.

• The median price for closed sales has slightly decreased to $445,626 as of August 1st, and the 3-month moving median price has fallen to $465,000. The 12-month rolling average price increased to $722,000 in August from $662,000 the prior year. The YoY change in median and average price contracted to 8.5% and 9.1%, respectively in the last 12 months.

Key Takeaways

© 2023 ResortProperties.com, LLC, All Rights Reserved

Prepared by Michael J. Timmerman, CRE of ResortProperties.com, LLC

Collier and Lee County, FL

Michael Timmerman, CRE

• Member of the Counselors of Real Estate (CRE)

• 40 Years Experience as a Real Estate Economist and Consultant

• Market and Feasibility Studies

• Economic Impact Studies

• New Community Product and Amenity Planning

• Consumer Preference and Engagement Analysis

• Private Club Amenity analysis

• Real Estate Investment Advisory

• 20 Years experience using GIS and Data Analytics tools to provide clients with a clear picture of market trends.

• Real Estate and Community Planning education from the Appraisal Institute and Urban Land Institute.

• Frequent Speaker and Lecturer on Economic and Real Estate Trends Analysis. Contact Information

Mike.Timmerman@ResortProperties.com www.ResortProperties.com C. 239.269.0769

© 2023 ResortProperties.com, LLC, All Rights Reserved Prepared by Michael J. Timmerman, CRE of ResortProperties.com, LLC

What does this data mean

AND HOW DO I READ IT TO GET MEANINGFUL INSIGHTS?

Market Reports and Definitions

1. Product Design Filter – Select between Single-Family Homes and Condominiums.

2. Supply and Demand Trends – Light Blue Bars represent each month's active inventory. The dark blue bars represent the cumulative sales that have occurred over the past 12 months. The orange line represents the months supply. Months supply indicates how long it will take to sell the active inventory at the current monthly sales pace. The calculation is as follows: Active Inventory – 2949 divided by Monthly Sales Pace –822 = Sales per month – 3.59. In other words, it will take 3.59 months to sell the 2949 active listings at a pace of 822 per month. (822*3.59 = 2,949)

3. Average Price Trends – The blue bars represent the average sales price in the current month, the blue line represents the past 12 month average sales price and the orange line represents the past 3 months average sales price. Normalizing the each months sales by looking at the past 12 and 3 months provide long term and short term pricing trends.

4. List Price to Sales Price History – The graph shows the ratio of list price to sales price, or the discount or premium paid above or below the listing price for the current period.

5. Market Summary – This list of variables summarizes the current months trends based on the data from sections one to four.

6. Filter Selection – Select variables for geography and property attributes.

7. Year over Year Change Last 12 Months (LTM) – This list shows the Current months market statistics on the top and the Year over Year change for each statistic on the bottom.

8. Properties Display – This map shows the location of each sales that occurred over the past 12 months.

Historical Median Price Trends

1. Rolling 3 Month Median Selling Price by Month and Year – The blue line shows the median 3 month rolling price for each month since January 2020. This date is the starting point of the market change since the start of the pandemic.

2. Month over Month Change in Median Selling Price by Month and Year – This waterfall chart shows the monthly change in the 3 month median sales price. Each month is color coded Green if the change is positive and Red if the change is negative. The solid blue bar on the right of the chart shows the total percentage change in median pricing from January 2020 to the current month. Understanding the trend in monthly change in median pricing provides insights into the long term direction of pricing and can help explain and measure how price changes are impacted by economic or weather events. In this case, the downward trend reflected the impact of Hurricane Ian on the residential real estate market.

3. Price Trend Highlights – This written summary provides highlights of the data in the two charts.

Data Analysis

Sales Count By Price Distribution

This set of graphs show the distribution of sales by price bucket or range. The ranges are; Less than $249K, $250K to $499K, $500K to $999K, $1M to $1.49M, $1.5M to $2.9M and Greater than $3M. The lines show the Median and Average Price of sales within each price range. This information provides insights into what price range is the most demanded in the market.

1. Sales and Pricing Trends by Price Distribution by Product Design (Condominium) – The blue bars show the number of sales that occurred over the last 12 months in each price band. The blue line shows the median sale price for each price bucket. The orange line shows the average sale price for each price bucket.

2. Sales and Pricing Trends by Price Distribution by Product Design (Single Family) – The blue bars show the number of sales that occurred over the last 12 months in each price band. The blue line shows the median sale price for each price bucket. The orange line shows the average sale price for each price bucket.

3. Sales and Pricing Trends by Price Distribution by Product Design (All Product Designs) – The blue bars show the number of sales that occurred over the last 12 months in each price band. The blue line shows the median sale price for each price bucket. The orange line shows the average sale price for each price bucket.

1.

Months Supply by Price

Distribution

This set of graphs show the months supply by price bucket or range. The ranges are; Less than $249K, $250K to $499K, $500K to $999K, $1M to $1.49M, $1.5M to $2.9M and Greater than $3M. The lines show the Median and Average Price of sales within each price range. This information provides insights into the supply demand ratio for each price range.

1. Sales and Pricing Trends by Price Distribution by Product Design (Condominium) – The blue bars show the number of sales that occurred over the last 12 months in each price band. The blue line shows the median sale price for each price bucket. The orange line shows the average sale price for each price bucket.

2. Sales and Pricing Trends by Price Distribution by Product Design (Single Family) – The blue bars show the number of sales that occurred over the last 12 months in each price band. The blue line shows the median sale price for each price bucket. The orange line shows the average sale price for each price bucket.

3. Sales and Pricing Trends by Price Distribution by Product Design (All Product Designs) – The blue bars show the number of sales that occurred over the last 12 months in each price band. The blue line shows the median sale price for each price bucket. The orange line shows the average sale price for each price bucket.

3.

Monthly Change by Year

This set of graphs shows the activity by month for each property status, Active Listings, Pending Listings, Closed Sales.

The Blue boxes represent the three variables for this set of graphs.

• Monthly Activity Count – monthly count of properties by status.

• YTD Change by design – Percentage change in Monthly Activity Count by product design.

• Monthly Median Price – Median price by status.

The Red boxes represent the property status for each variable.

• Active Listings – Properties currently available for sale.

• Pending Listings – Properties that are under contract, but not closed.

• Closed Sales – Properties that have closed.

This set of graphs shows the Year over Year change by month for each of the three status categories. It’s insightful as it shows seasonal trends and most importantly how the market changed due to the pandemic and hurricanes. © 2023 ResortProperties.com, LLC, All Rights Reserved Prepared by Michael J. Timmerman, CRE of ResortProperties.com,