Here are some charts that show the changes in real estate prices over time, starting from January 2020 when the Covid pandemic began. The top chart shows the median price using a 3 month rolling average, while the bottom chart displays the month-over-month price changes. On the far right of the green line, you can see the overall change from January 2020 to the effective date of this report with the blue bar indicating the total change to date.
The pricing in Collier County has risen by 68% since January of 2020 and the current trend suggests that the market has not yet experienced any decline from its peak.
Collier County Rolling sales and Median price trends.
Collier County
Collier County
Collier County
Collier
Lee County
Here are some charts that show the changes in real estate prices over time, starting from January 2020 when the Covid pandemic began. The top chart shows the median price using a 3 month rolling average, while the bottom chart displays the month-over-month price changes. On the far right of the green line, you can see the overall change from January 2020 to the effective date of this report with the blue bar indicating the total change to date.
The pricing in Collier County has risen by 68% since January of 2020 and the current trend suggests that the market has not yet experienced any decline from its peak.
Lee County Rolling sales and Median price trends.
Lee County
•As of December 1, 2024, the average monthly supply of housing units in Lee County increased from the prior month to 7.43 units. The current 3-month moving median price trend for December 1, 2024, was $384,310, compared to $390,000 in December 2023. The 3-month rolling average price on December 1, 2024, was $497,000, down from $511,000 on December 1, 2023. Median 3 Month rolling pricing decreased by -1.5% on December 1, 2024, compared to .1% in the same month the previous year, while the 3 Month rolling average price decreased by -2.8% on December 1, 2024, compared to 1.8% in the same month the prior year.
•Collier County's average monthly housing supply was 7.79 on December 1, 2024, slightly higher than the prior month at 6.8 months supply. The current 3-month moving median price trend for December 1, 2024, was $617,000, compared to $616,000 on December 1, 2023. The 3-month rolling average price on December 1, 2024, was $1,071,000, is unchanged from November 1, 2024, and up from $989,000 from December 2023. Median 3 Month rolling pricing decreased by -2.2% on December 1, 2024, compared to 4.1% in the same month the previous year, while the 3 Month rolling average price increased by 4.4 on December 1, 2024, compared to 1% in the same month the prior year.
•Based on the rolling sales and median price trends chart, we can see the changes in monthly median prices and whether they increase or decrease from the peak. Over the past 12 months, the monthly price appreciation rate has slowed. The waterfall chart measures the variance in median price up or down from the peak. Cumulatively, Collier County experienced a 71% increase in median pricing from January 2020 to its current peak in May 2024. As of the current period, median pricing is unchanged at 17% discount from its peak in May 2024. Cumulatively, Lee County experienced a 58% increase in median pricing from January 2020 to its current peak in July 2022. As of the current period, median pricing is unchanged at 5.6% discount from its peak in July 2022. Note: The monthly change has been level for the past three months, suggesting a stable price trend.
•The Micro Market Results for Lee and Collier counties show similar trends to the counties overall. On December 1, 2024, the inventory supply was 16,808, a 3% increase from the prior month. The active inventory has increased 36% YoY, while the 12-month rolling sales have decreased by -8.2%. The months' supply as of December 2024 for Lee and Collier's counties combined is 7.55 months, indicating a balanced market that favors the buyer. The market activity is stagnant, with the sales pace slowing down and inventory accelerating
•Based on the Micro Market Results for Lee and Collier counties, the 12-month rolling median price increased slightly to $449,000. The 3-month moving median price increased on December 1, 2024, to $425,000. The 12-month rolling average price increased slightly to $734,000 in December 2024 from $725,000 in the same month the prior year, while the 3-month moving average increased to $678,000. Over the past year, the YoY change in the 12-month rolling median declined -1.3 % from the previous year, with the rolling average price unchanged from last year. The limited sales activity and increasing inventory are slowly moving the market favorability to the buyer.
Lee and Collier County
Michael Timmerman, CRE
• Member of the Counselors of Real Estate (CRE)
• 40 Years Experience as a Real Estate Economist and Consultant
• Market and Feasibility Studies
• Economic Impact Studies
• New Community Product and Amenity Planning
• Consumer Preference and Engagement Analysis
• Private Club Amenity analysis
• Real Estate Investment Advisory
• 20 Years experience using GIS and Data Analytics tools to provide clients with a clear picture of market trends.
• Real Estate and Community Planning education from the Appraisal Institute and Urban Land Institute.
• Frequent Speaker and Lecturer on Economic and Real Estate Trends Analysis.
What does this data mean?
AND HOW DO I READ IT TO GET MEANINGFUL INSIGHTS?
Market Reports and Definitions
1. Product Design Filter – Select between Single-Family Homes and Condominiums.
2. Supply and Demand Trends – Light Blue Bars represent each month's active inventory. The dark blue bars represent the cumulative sales that have occurred over the past 12 months. The orange line represents the months supply. Months supply indicates how long it will take to sell the active inventory at the current monthly sales pace. The calculation is as follows:
Active Inventory – 2949 divided by Monthly Sales Pace –
822 = Sales per month – 3.59. In other words, it will take 3.59 months to sell the 2949 active listings at a pace of 822 per month. (822*3.59 = 2,949)
3. Average Price Trends – The blue bars represent the average sales price in the current month, the blue line represents the past 12 month average sales price and the orange line represents the past 3 months average sales price. Normalizing the each months sales by looking at the past 12 and 3 months provide long term and short term pricing trends.
4. List Price to Sales Price History – The graph shows the ratio of list price to sales price, or the discount or premium paid above or below the listing price for the current period.
5. Market Summary – This list of variables summarizes the current months trends based on the data from sections one to four.
6. Filter Selection – Select variables for geography and property attributes.
7. Year over Year Change Last 12 Months (LTM) – This list shows the Current months market statistics on the top and the Year over Year change for each statistic on the bottom.
8. Properties Display – This map shows the location of each sales that occurred over the past 12 months.
Historical Median Price Trends
1. Rolling 3 Month Median Selling Price by Month and Year – The blue line shows the median 3 month rolling price for each month since January 2020. This date is the starting point of the market change since the start of the pandemic.
2. Month over Month Change in Median Selling Price by Month and Year – This waterfall chart shows the monthly change in the 3 month median sales price. Each month is color coded Green if the change is positive and Red if the change is negative. The solid blue bar on the right of the chart shows the total percentage change in median pricing from January 2020 to the current month. Understanding the trend in monthly change in median pricing provides insights into the long term direction of pricing and can help explain and measure how price changes are impacted by economic or weather events. In this case, the downward trend reflected the impact of Hurricane Ian on the residential real estate market.
3. Price Trend Highlights – This written summary provides highlights of the data in the two charts.
Sales Count By Price Distribution
This set of graphs show the distribution of sales by price bucket or range. The ranges are; Less than $249K, $250K to $499K, $500K to $999K, $1M to $1.49M, $1.5M to $2.9M and Greater than $3M. The lines show the Median and Average Price of sales within each price range. This information provides insights into what price range is the most demanded in the market.
1. Sales and Pricing Trends by Price Distribution by Product Design (Condominium) – The blue bars show the number of sales that occurred over the last 12 months in each price band. The blue line shows the median sale price for each price bucket. The orange line shows the average sale price for each price bucket.
2. Sales and Pricing Trends by Price Distribution by Product Design (Single Family) – The blue bars show the number of sales that occurred over the last 12 months in each price band. The blue line shows the median sale price for each price bucket. The orange line shows the average sale price for each price bucket.
3. Sales and Pricing Trends by Price Distribution by Product Design (All Product Designs) – The blue bars show the number of sales that occurred over the last 12 months in each price band. The blue line shows the median sale price for each price bucket. The orange line shows the average sale price for each price bucket.
Data Analysis
Months Supply by Price
Distribution
This set of graphs show the months supply by price bucket or range. The ranges are; Less than $249K, $250K to $499K, $500K to $999K, $1M to $1.49M, $1.5M to $2.9M and Greater than $3M. The lines show the Median and Average Price of sales within each price range. This information provides insights into the supply demand ratio for each price range.
1. Sales and Pricing Trends by Price Distribution by Product Design (Condominium) – The blue bars show the number of sales that occurred over the last 12 months in each price band. The blue line shows the median sale price for each price bucket. The orange line shows the average sale price for each price bucket.
2. Sales and Pricing Trends by Price Distribution by Product Design (Single Family) – The blue bars show the number of sales that occurred over the last 12 months in each price band. The blue line shows the median sale price for each price bucket. The orange line shows the average sale price for each price bucket.
3. Sales and Pricing Trends by Price Distribution by Product Design (All Product Designs) – The blue bars show the number of sales that occurred over the last 12 months in each price band. The blue line shows the median sale price for each price bucket. The orange line shows the average sale price for each price bucket.
Monthly Change by Year
This set of graphs shows the activity by month for each property status, Active Listings, Pending Listings, Closed Sales.
The Blue boxes represent the three variables for this set of graphs.
• Monthly Activity Count – monthly count of properties by status.
• YTD Change by design – Percentage change in Monthly Activity Count by product design.
• Monthly Median Price – Median price by status.
The Red boxes represent the property status for each variable.
• Active Listings – Properties currently available for sale.
• Pending Listings – Properties that are under contract, but not closed.
• Closed Sales – Properties that have closed.
This set of graphs shows the Year over Year change by month for each of the three status categories. It’s insightful as it shows seasonal trends and most importantly how the market changed due to the pandemic and hurricanes.
