BREXIT that both sides will want a post-Brexit agreement in place much faster. WHAT IS THE OVERALL IMPACT ON TERRORISM IN THE UK? The UK will be unable to replicate its existing relationship in any scenario. The main impact will likely be felt in terms of time and efficiency. Even in the event of a hard Brexit, after a period of initial disruption, most challenges would likely be mitigated by strengthening existing bilateral relations with member states and other rapid adjustments. Anti-Western jihadists have shown relatively little interest in Brexit. The UK leaving the EU is unlikely to have any impact in terms of judging which countries should be targeted in future Islamist attacks. The effect of Brexit upon far right terrorism is more difficult to predict. If Brexit is perceived as a partial victory over ‘liberal internationalism’, this could inspire violent attacks to hasten its demise.
More importantly, the existing capacity of the UK to counteract any form of terrorist violence is unlikely to be greatly damaged. The reality is that neither the UK nor European governments want a terrorist attack that can be pinned, in part, on Brexit having caused a lack of preventive transnational coordination. Counter terrorism security is one of the few areas in which Brexit will ultimately make comparatively little difference. L
This article was written by Emily Winterbotham in December 2020, just prior to the published agreement governing future relations between the UK and the EU. Emily is Director of the Terrorism and Conflict group and Senior Research Fellow at RUSI, focusing on extremism and radicalisation, countering violent extremism and peacebuilding.
SECURITY IN THE BREXIT AGREEMENT There is now a Brexit agreement. In the final document the elements covering ‘Law Enforcement and Judicial Cooperation’ are set out over 84 pages. The UK retains access to critical databases, including DNA information exchange (Prüm) and Passenger Name Records (PNR). The UK will maintain a working relationship with the main EUwide law enforcement agencies, Europol and Eurojust, which provide platforms for sharing information, mounting joint investigations, operations and prosecutions. There are also some potentially important arrangements for maintaining and building practical cooperation on cybercrime, cybersecurity, and the security of emerging technologies, including working with the EU Agency for Cybersecurity. However, UK access to the EU’s criminal records exchange (ECRIS) and instant operational alerts on the movement of people and objects (Schengen Information System 2) is not preserved in a formal sense. UK police and border guards were consulting this hundreds of millions of times a year. The agreement sets out what are intended to be alternative arrangements. The effectiveness of these arrangements will be tested by events in the period ahead. The consequences of the loss of access are not yet clear.
FURTHER INFORMATION
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ISSUE 45 | COUNTER TERROR BUSINESS MAGAZINE
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