By Hannah Prins
This economic report is an analysis of the economic conditions of the city of Flint Michigan. The report seeks to analyze data in order to make informed observations regarding the challenges and opportunities for the future economic development of Flint Michigan. It recognizes more chronic issues that have been present in Flint including a dramatic decline in population, long term disinvestment, and the 2014 Flint Water Crisis. However, this paper really strives to take a deeper look at how the city has been doing over the last decade in comparison to the state of Michigan and the United States overall.
Therefore, the focus will be on determining the status of chronic and new problems in the last 10 years. This will be done through the analysis of 5 major metrics including: Population growth, median household income, unemployment rate, educational attainment, and environmental justice. It will also look further at location quotients and a shift share analysis of Genessee County in comparison the nation. The shift share analysis will give insight into what industries are doing well in the region and opportunities for investment.
The report will review statements from “Public Opinion of the New Economy, Placemaking and Economic Development Strategies for Michigan” and apply them to the city of Fllint. Lastly, the report will comprehensively assess and describe what challenges and oportunities exist in the area and what an ecnomic development plan should consider to address them.
Total Population: 81,252
Median Household Income: $37,102
Race: 54% Black | 34.8% White |
6% 2 or More Races | 4.6% Latino
The city of Flint is located in Mid-Michigan along the Flint River. It is the largest city in Genesee County and serves as the County seat. Flint like many other Michigan cities began as a fur trading post that was founded into a village in 1819 by proiminent fur trader Jacob Smith. Flint expanded with the arrival of the lumber industry in the 19th century and the city became incorporated in1855.1
Towards the end of the 19th century, Flint became widely known for its carriage making with the Durant Dort Carriage Company becoming the largest producer in the world.2 Flint continued to evolve its reputation for vehicle manufacturing when the Buick Motor Company was purchased and moved to Flint Michigan in 1903. Chevrolet and General Motors were founded shortly after and all three companies were incorporated into General Motors. During 20th century, General Motors brought many people to Flint and at it’s peak employed nearly half the city. This growth halted with the regression of the American auto industry and the movement of General Motors facilities to other locations.2 This decline began in the 1970’s and has continued resulting in high rates of unemloyment, property vacancy, and poverty.
More recently in 2014, the City of Flint was placed into a state of emergency by the federal govenrment due to the toxic lead and bacteria present in its water source, the Flint River. This event was the result of a decision by state officials to transition the water supply from Detroit to the Flint River. The event and its aftermath are ongoing and it is a highly controversial issue that has raised several questions about environmental equity and govermental transparency.3
Data obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey 5-year estimate tables.4
One of the major causes of concern for the City of Flint over the last 50 years has been the sharp decline in population. At it’s height in the 1970’s Flint was home to 190,000 people, yet today the population is less than half of what it was at only 80,000 people.2 This dramataic decline has resulted in a massive revenue loss for the city and susequent disinvestment of critical infrastructure and services.
The graph above depicts the population growth rate of Flint, Michigan, and the United States. The United States has been growing steadily at about 0.7% annually while Michigan’s population has remained fairly stable but growing ever so slightly at 0.1% annually. Flint on the other hand has continued to lose population every year in the last decade. However, this rate is slowly approaching zero, meaning the city is losing less people than it was at the start of the decade. This implies the population is stabilizing and gives a hopeful outlook for city revenue.
*From 2020-2021 Michigan and the United States experienced a sharp increase in population growth while Flint experienced a sharp decrease. The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on these sudden trend shifts remains uncertain.
The graph above depicts the median household income for Flint, Michigan, and the United States over the last decade in inflation-adjusted dollars. The median household income in Flint has been historically low when compared to the rest of the state of Michigan and this remained true over the last decade. However, Flint followed the same upward trend as Michigan and the United States, and more promisingly, the gap between median income has been shrinking over the last few years. Flint Michigan saw a noteable increase in median income by 22% from 2020 to 2021compared to a 7.1% increase in Michigan and a 7.2% increase in the nation overall. This indicates an increase of econonmic wellbeing and spending power for residents of Flint.
% Population with Bachelor’s Degree or Higher
Data obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey 5-year estimate tables.4
The city of Flint has experienced a 3.3% increase in the number of residents with a Bachelor’s degree or higher in the last decade. A trend of higher educational attainment generally correlates with higher household incomes and lower unemployment.5,6 It also indicates an opportunity for the growth of skilled industries with higher job multipliers within Flint.
Obtained from https://datausa.io/profile/geo/flint-mi/#education7
The top degrees earned in Flint Michigan as of 2020 are in Mechanical Enginnering (18.2%) and Registered Nursing (16.8%)7. In order to retain people who earn these degrees in the city, Flint should focus on expanding opportunities, networking, and jobs for these industries. Keeping these jobs in Flint will work to increase and diversify income tax revenue.
% Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate in Flint has been high for decades largely due to the relocation of the automotive industry and long term disinvestment. In the last decade, Flint’s unemployment rate has fallen from its peak of 13.5% in 2013 to 8.6% in 2021, a total decrease of 4.9%. This trend has placed the city’s unemployment rate closer to the unemployment rate in Michigan and the nation overall. The data trend indicates that less people who live in Flint are looking for work than before. This is usually a positive sign for the economy and an indicator of household economic stability. Flint should continue to focus on opportunities that bring good jobs with higher multipliers and to increase revenue.
Obtained from: https://onemap.cdc.gov/portal/apps/sites/#/eji-explorer3
While perhaps less often associated directly with economnic conditions, environmental justice is a critical factor that can exacerbate existing social and economic conditions for the better or worse.8 The table above shows the social justice index percentiles for Flint Michigan. These percentile numbers compare Flint to the nation; the higher the score the higher the environmental burden. Flint rates fairly poorly for environmental justice ranking above the average for environmental burden. Especially in water pollution, air pollution, and built environment factors with scores of 0.8, 0.5, and 0.6 respectively. Some parts of the city have percentile rankings above a 0.9. These conditions will have subsequent economic demands including higher healthcare, infrastructure, and public service costs. Poor environmental equity also presents barriers to further economic growth by damaging city reputation and reducing population growth.
Data obtained from MichiganREAProject.org9
The table above shows the calculated location quotients (LQ) in 2010 and 2020 at the sector level in Genesee County based off from the national growth (NG), industry mix (IM), and regional shift (RS). Certain subsectors had a LQ > 1 as well as a RS >1. The following subsectors are of particular importance because the industries are concentrated in the area and are regionally competitive thus they may be assets for future development:
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Administrative & Waste Services
The subsector Health Care & Social Assistance had a LQ > 1 and an IM value of 7.34. However the RS value was -24.39 indicating that this subsector is doing much worse in terms of growth than the national industry average. While this subsector may be an asset for future development, Genesee County will have to determine and address why it is not regionally competitive.
The subsector Management of Companies and Enterprises could be a potential development target as it has an LQ < 1 but an IM = 21.65 and a RS = 291.15. This subsector is experiencing positive growth nationally and is doing especially well in Genesee County, yet it is less concentrated than the national average.
The graph and results above depict a shift share analysis for Genesee County employment change from 2015-2020. Genesee County experienced a growth rate of -4.68% and an overall loss of 8,389 jobs compared to the nation which conversely experienced a growth rate of 10.34% and gained 18,538 jobs.8 The industry mix of Genesee County was -0.71% meaning that the combined industries present in the county are slower growing and declining nationally. In addition to this, the regional shift was -14.31% indicating that the industries present in Genesee County are less competitive and experiencing less growth than the national average of their counterparts. The shift share analysis has overall negative economic implications for Genesee County and suggests that the county needs to facilitate the change of the types of industries present in the region as well as addressing what makes the region less competitive overall.
A review of three statements in the report “Public Opinion of the New Economy, Placemaking and Economic Development Strategies for Michigan”10. Flint Michigan is identified as being in East Central Michigan.
Statement 3: “Michigan’s future economic success depends on having a large portion of the population with a post high school degree.”
73.95% of East Central Michigan agreed with this statement while 26.1% disagreed. While respondents primarily agreed, the region was the second most disagreeable behind the Upper Penninsula. This could suggest that there is less emphasis placed on higher education in the region and potentially lower educational attainment. I would speculate that the city of Flint is likely more agreeable to this statement than Central East Michigan overall however.
Statement 4: “Michigan’s future economic success depends on having a diversified economy.”
100% of respondents in East Central Michigan agreed with this statement and 67.4% of respondents agreed strongly. This indicates that East Central Michigan is supportive of the growth of new industries and buisnesses. I believe this is representative of Flint Michigan because lack of economic diversity is what ultimately left the city vulnerable to economic failure.
Statement 5: “Young people today are more likely than young people in previous generations to choose a place to live based on quality of life rather than job opportunities.”
51.1% of respondents in the East Central region agreed with this statement. The results for this statement were fairly mixed across the board, yet interestingly, younger people tended to agree more this statement. Flint Michigan has a younger median age than Michigan overall so it may be that the city is more agreeable to this statement. The implications of this are that younger people are likely more heavily weighing quality of life when choosing where to live. This futher stresses the need for Flint to address some of it’s long term structural and environmental issues if it wants to retain the younger population.
General Motors has long been the top employer of Flint Michigan and despite the relocation of many of it’s jobs, it still remains the top employer today. The outlook for General Motors jobs in Flint is promising when looking at a manufacturing regional shift value of 20.87. The company has also recently announced the plans for the investment of electric vehicle manufacturing infrastructure in a GM plant in Orion Township.12 While this plant is not located in Flint, it indicates the company has an interest in reinvesting in it’s Michigan based plants. Overall, the future is uncertain however as the risk of relocation has presented problems in the past.
McLaren Medical Center - 2,785 Employees
Hurley Medical Center - 2,780 Employees
Genesys, McLaren, and Hurley are all prominent medical employers in the East Central and Central regions of Michigan. They contribute several skilled jobs and provide an important service that nearly everyone needs at some point in their lives. The educational attainment in the medical field is increasing in Genesee County which is a promising outlook. However the regional share value was -24.39 in the healthcare subsector indicating that the region likely has barriers preventing growth to it’s full potential.
The Flint School District is the 5th leading employer in the city of Flint. The outlook for education at the national level is positive and slow growing. While it may not present the most opportunity for growth, is an essential service and valuable to the community. I believe that the employment of the school district will likely remain stable or increase if there is an influx in population.
Genesee County provides economic development assistance and information on it’s website. The Economic Development Corporation of Genesee County provides small buisness loans up to $100,000 to pay for improvements, equipment, inventory, and working capital.13 The Flint and Genesee Economic Alliance provides information and assistance to entrepenuers and starting buisnesses and encourages local enconomic growth. They assist with site selection, talent aquisition, technical assistance, customer connetions, capital loans, and resource partner connections.14
Overall, the County website was well organized and easy to navigate. It likely makes a positive impression on entrepenuers and investors looking into the region.
After conducting a multisided review of Flint’s economic conditions, there are several identifiable challenges and opportunities for an economic development plan to address. The heart of many of Flint’s struggles stem from it’s population loss and subsequent loss of revenue. Flint needs to address factors that are preventing people from staying in and moving to the city. The Flint Water Crisis damaged the city’s already declining reputation and greatly lowered the percieved and actual quality of life. The crisis and its root problems are perhaps the most prominent barrier to population growth and addressing them will require planned solutions to long term environmental issues and repairing trust between the governement agencies and general public.
While there are several complex challenges to overcome, there are also several opportunities that Flint can look to simultaneously. First and foremost it should strive to bring people back with good jobs. The city plan should focus on it’s regionally competitive subsectors of manufacturing, wholesale trade, and administration and waste services. Additionally, management of companies and enterprises is a promising subsector that is unconcentrated and experiencing a lot of growth. The industry should be considered in future economic plans and should not be overlooked. Medical jobs are concetrated in the area and the city should do it’s best to plan for support of this industry in partnership with it’s local universities. Second, the city needs to invest in services and placemaking factors that increase quality of life and make it a competitive place to live. It will be important that the city continue to focus on events that attract people to the city such as it’s yearly jazz and automotive festivals and supporting new trendy buisnesses and services. Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, an economic plan should focus on diversifying the city’s jobs and industries to make it more resilient in the long run.
1. About Flint. City of Flint. (2022, July 25). Retrieved October 12, 2022, from https://www.cityof flint.com/about-flint/
2. History of Genesee County. (n.d.). Retrieved October 12, 2022, from https://www.tiki-toki.com/timeline/entry/1023356/ History-of-Genesee-County/
3. Bureau, U. S. C. (n.d.). Explore census data. Retrieved October 20, 2022, from https://data.census.gov/cedsci/all?q=flint+michigan
4. Bureau, U. S. C. (n.d.). Explore census data. Retrieved October 14, 2022, from https://data.census.gov/cedsci/all?q=flint+michigan
5. Coe - annual earnings by educational attainment. (n.d.). Retrieved October 30, 2022, from https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator/cba/annual-earnings
6. Coe - employment and unemployment rates by educational attainment. (n.d.). Retrieved October 30, 2022, from https:// nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator/cbc/employment-unemployment-rates
7. Flint, MI. Data USA. (n.d.). Retrieved November 1, 2022, from https://datausa.io/profile/geo/flint-mi/#education
8. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (2013, November 26). CDC Health Disparities & Inequalities Report (CHDIR) - minority health - CDC. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Retrieved October 20, 2022, from https://www. cdc.gov/minorityhealth/chdireport.html
9. Shift-share analysis of Michigan employment growth and shift share analysis tools for Michigan. Michigan Regional Economic Analysis Project. (n.d.). Retrieved October 10, 2022, from https://michigan.reaproject.org/analysis/shift-share/
10. Michigan State University. (n.d.). Retrieved November 1, 2022, from http://ippsr.msu.edu/publications/SOSS61_ LandPolicy.pdf
11. Flint & Genesee major employers. Flint and Genesee Chamber of Commerce. (2019, November 18). Retrieved November 1, 2022, from https://webdev.flintandgenesee.org/data-center/flint-genesee-major-employers/
12. Gov. Whitmer secures historic $7 billion investment by GM to create thousands of manufacturing jobs, making Michigan a home for company’s Electric Vehicle Future. SOM - State of Michigan. (n.d.). Retrieved November 2, 2022, from https:// www.michigan.gov/whitmer/news/press-releases/2022/01/25/secures-historic-7-billion-investment-by-gm-to-createthousands-of-manufacturing-jobs-
13. Genesee County, MI. (n.d.). Retrieved November 1, 2022, from https://www.geneseecountymi.gov/business/economic_ development_corportation_of_genesee_county.php
14. Home. Flint and Genesee Economic Alliance. (2022, May 17). Retrieved November 1, 2022, from https:// developflintandgenesee.org/