MAIN FACTS
The most recent GDP data, released in early March by the IBGE, showed a 2024 that was much better than expected, with a 3.4% increase against an initial projection of 2%. On the production side, industry grew 3.3% and services grew 3.7%. From a demand perspective, household consumption rose 4.8%, with a 7.3% increase in investments standing out. This buoyant economy, however, has consequences for inflation, with prices of products and services rising above the ceiling of the target set by the National Monetary Council, of 4.5% . In February alone, inflation in the country rose 1.31%, accelerating in relation to the 0.16% in January, and has accumulated 5.06% in the last 12 months. The monthly variation was the highest in 22 years. The price of electricity soared in February, reflecting the end of the discount granted on electricity bills in January. The seasonal adjustment of school enrollments, the increase in the state tax (ICMS) on gasoline and diesel, and the rise in food prices, which continue to put pressure on the country’s official index, also put pressure on inflation. The accumulated figure above 5% is likely to remain throughout the year.
In light of this scenario, the Central Bank has once again decided to raise the basic interest rate, from 13.25% to the current 14.25%. Even so, this does not seem to be the limit, with projections indicating that it could reach 15% at the next COPOM meeting in May. Interestingly, this is a domestic move, since in the United States, the FED has chosen to maintain the basic rate between 4.25% and 4.50%.
With the increase in real interest rates, Brazil becomes more attractive to foreign investors. This interest rate differential in relation to the United States has impacted the exchange rate, which continues to fall, currently below R$5.70 per dollar, after starting the year close to R$6.00. Despite the recent devaluation, the exchange rate is still above the level seen at the beginning of last year, which is a benefit to agribusiness, especially given the projection of a record soybean harvest and an increase of almost 9% in corn production for 2025. The agricultural sector has a significant weight in the GDP for the first quarter and should contribute positively to the result.
The initial data for 2025 point to a still strong economy, with no major signs of slowdown
Retail sales grew 2.2% in January compared to the previous year, while the vehicle sector recorded an 8.9% increase in sales, even on a high base, given that in January of last year, the increase was 11.9%.
Despite the increase in credit costs, durable goods sectors continue to perform well. This is due to the ease of access to credit for Brazilian families, supported by a buoyant labor market. The country recorded its lowest unemployment rate in history, at 6.5% in the quarter ending in January. With the real increase in income, the total resources available to families reached a record level of R$380 billion in the same period. With more money in hand, families increased their spending, not only in commerce, but also in the services sector, which grew 1.6% in January, according to the IBGE. National Tourism, according to a survey by FecomercioSP, grew 5.5% in the annual comparison, with record revenue for
CONFIDENCE INDEXES:
The Consumer Confidence Index (ICC) fell for the second consecutive month and reached 120.5 points in February, a 2.5% drop compared to January and a 12.8% drop compared to the previous year. This was the lowest level since November 2022. Whenever there is a stronger inflationary process, especially in food, there is an impact on confidence, with caution regarding income and expenses, even though strong employment still brings a lot of security to the home.
The Business Confidence Index for Commerce (ICEC) reached 103.2 points in February, representing a monthly decline of 4.4% and an annual decline of 6.4%. The current level is the lowest since July 2021. Although retail sales are growing strongly throughout the country, there are concerns about the impact of higher inflation on consumption, in addition to a more fragile economic outlook, resulting from the increase in interest rates.
Consumer Confident Index (ICC) and Comerce Businessman (ICEC)
Note: The ICC and ICEC range from 0 to 200. From 100 to 200 points is considered an optimistic level, and below 100 points is pessimistic.
Although the indicators are for the city of São Paulo, they follow the trend of what is happening in the rest of the country, since the city, the largest in Brazil, represents 11% of the national GDP.
ICC ICEC
TRAVEL AND TOURISM
BRAZILIAN TOURISTS HEADING TO THE US
The US National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) has updated its official forecast for foreign tourist arrivals in the United States in the coming years. The agency predicts that the total volume of international visitors will reach 77.1 million in 2025, an increase of 4.7 million (+6.5%), compared to 72.4 million in 2024.
The main entry markets for the US today are Canada, Mexico, France, Germany, Italy, United Kingdom, China, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia and BRAZIL. Together, these countries accounted for 78% of total international arrivals to the US in 2024.
Brazil is one of the countries that should surpass pre-pandemic levels (from 2019) as early as 2026, along with Germany, France, Canada and Mexico.
In 2025, counting the first two months of the year, Brazil will already be the second largest long-distance market for the United States, behind only the United Kingdom.
In 2024, 1.91 million Brazilians visited the United States.
In 2025, this number is expected to reach 2.08 million.
In 2026, the US is expected to receive 2.34 million Brazilians.
In 2027, there will be 2.5 million Brazilians in the United States.
In 2028, the projection is for 2.62 million Brazilian tourists.
And in 2029, 2.7 million.
TOUR OPERATORS ON THE MOVE
The year began with a major crisis at the tour operator ViagensPromo, which ran out of cash to
honor future embarkments, especially after Carnival. Some charter flights had to be cancelled, due to lack of payments, some of them with Gol Brazilian Airlines. Travel agencies, franchise agencies and suppliers had to bear the costs of boarding customers and the vast majority of employees left and are migrating to other tour operators. ViagensPromo is a company with greater strength in the domestic market, but which had an international presence, in diverse destinations, such as the Caribbean and even Asia.
Two other tour operators brought good news on the other hand:
Orinter announced that its parent company, Mondee, will not enter Chapter 11, as it received approval from the American court for the sale of 25% to the TCW Group, from Los Angeles. The investment will be US$ 200 million (more than R$ 1 billion), which provides peace of mind for the restructuring of Mondee and its growth in Latin America, where Orinter and Interep are its anchors.
CVC Corp announced its highest profit since 2018, R$ 54 million, and opened one CVC store per business day in 2024, for a total of 260. This is the final turning point for the company, which found itself in a difficult situation during the pandemic and was rescued by the Paulus family and the management of Fabio Godinho.
Other tour operators have invested in personnel, new departments and operations outside their bases, especially in the Northeast and South of the country. The market is gradually getting back on its feet after the disruption caused by the ViagensPromo crisis. The debate continues, however, about how everyone can take precautions and protect themselves from crises like this.
NEW FLIGHTS
The beginning of the year has been intense for airlines and their plans for international flights in Brazil, especially from cities in the Brazilian Northeast:
AZUL: Recife will have regular flights to Madrid, Spain, and Porto, Portugal, starting in June. Starting in July, Asunción, Paraguay, will receive a seasonal route.
IBERIA: The Spanish company will expand its network in Europe in the next winter season, adding three new long-haul destinations to the Americas. There will be direct flights from Madrid to Fortaleza, Recife and Orlando.
The two new destinations in Brazil join São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, to which it currently offers 14 and five weekly flights, respectively. On December 13, 2025, the airline will start flights to Recife, with three weekly frequencies, which will increase to five starting in February. On January 19, 2026, Iberia will begin flights to Fortaleza, initially with three weekly frequencies and, starting in February, increasing to four.
LATAM: The company will have direct flights between Fortaleza and Lisbon. Operations will take place between April 7 and October 20 of this year. This is the company’s first direct flight between the Northeast and Europe since 2009.
AIR FRANCE: Air France will have flights between Fortaleza and Cayenne, the capital of French Guiana, starting on April 22. This will be the first flight from the Northeast to Cayenne. Air France already has 5 direct flights per week, connecting Fortaleza to Paris.
AMERICAN AIRLINES: American will offer up to 10 weekly flights between Dallas and São Paulo for the next winter season (end of this year), a 40% increase compared to last summer season
in Brazil. From all over the United States, American will offer up to 10 daily flights to Brazil, more than any other airline.
The increase in flights between Dallas and São Paulo will begin on December 3, 2025. There will be 10 weekly flights operated by B787-9s and B787-8s.
TAP AIR PORTUGAL: The Portuguese airline has resumed flights between Porto Alegre and Lisbon. The capital of Rio Grande do Sul had no connections with Portugal since the closure of Salgado Filho Airport in May last year, due to the floods that devastated the state of Rio Grande do Sul.
WHO ARE THE LARGEST DISTRIBUTORS IN THE BRAZILIAN MARKET?
PANROTAS prepared its traditional ranking of the largest travel distributors in the country. The values were provided by the companies themselves and some (listed at the end) did not want to have their sales results publicly displayed.
THE BIGGEST IN 2024
1 – DECOLAR: R$9 billion in sales in Brazil alone. Period from January to September 2024, because by the time this issue went to press, the company, which is listed on the stock exchange, had not yet published its balance sheet. In Latin America, the figure was R$21 billion.
2 – CVC CORP: R$8.42 billion in sales in Brazil alone. Period from January to September 2024, because by the time this issue went to press, the company, which is listed on the stock exchange, had not yet published its balance sheet. In Latin America, the figure was R$11.1 billion.
At the end of March, CVC Corp published its balance sheet for 2024: R$14.4 billion in total sales
and a profit of R$53 million. A 6.2% drop compared to 2023, which is explained by the paralysis of the Rio Grande do Sul market (outbound and inbound) for approximately six months; and by the 32% drop in Argentina. Sales in Brazil alone totaled R$11.5 billion (an increase of 3.9% over 2023).
3 – BEFLY: R$ 10,2 billion
4 – GRUPO CONFIANÇA: R$ 3,25 billion
5 – MONDEE BRASIL: R$ 2,47 billion (inclui Orinter, Interep e Mondee Consolidadora)
6 – COPASTUR: R$ 2,41 billion
7 – SAKURA: R$ 2,1 billion
8 – GRUPO BRT: R$ 2,06 billion
9 – KONTIK: R$ 1,725 billion
10 – BCD TRAVEL: R$ 1,7 billion
11 – GRUPO ANCORADOURO: R$ 1.53 billion (includes the operator Mondiale)
12 – GRUPO ARBAITMAN: RR$ 1.42 billion (includes brands such as Maringá and Central de Eventos)
13 – AVIPAM: R$ 1,4 billion
14 – ONFLY: R$ 1,389 billion
15 – CWT: R$ 1,22 billion
16 – SKYTEAM: R$ 1,15 billion
17 – GRUPO FRT: R$ 1,02 billion (inclui a FRT Operadora e FRT Consolidadora)
18 – TP GROUP: R$ 1,017 billion (inclui marcas como Teresa Perez Tours, TP Air e New Age)
19 – VOETUR: R$ 989,5 million
20 – EHTL: R$ 950 million
21 – VOLL: R$ 936 million
22 – BEST BUY: R$ 856 million
23 – CNT: R$ 802 million
24 – BANCORBRÁS: R$ 737,8 million
25 – VIAGENSPROMO: R$ 720 million
26 – EUROPLUS: R$ 530,7 million
27 – TYLLER: R$ 507,2 million
28 – ABREU: R$ 506 million
29 – COSTA BRAVA TRAVEL: R$ 440 million
30 – PROMOTIONAL TRAVEL: R$ 400 million
31 – AGAXTUR: R$ 394 million
32 – BWT: R$ 368 million
33 – CATIVA: R$ 330 million
34 – LTN BRASIL: R$ 316,6 million
35 – INCOMUM: R$ 305 million
36 – QUICKLY: R$ 302 million
37 – PRIMETOUR: R$ 300 million
38 – TRANSPAC: R$ 255 million
39 – CLUBE TURISMO: R$ 240 million
40 – SUNCOAST USA: R$ 239,6 million
41 – SCHULTZ: R$ 216,5 million
42 – JUST TRAVEL: R$ 200 million
43 – LUCK RECEPTIVO: R$ 188 million (inclui R$
47 million da Luck Viagens)
44 – PÁTRIA CONSOLIDADORA: R$ 168,2 million
45 – FLOT: R$ 128 million
46 – AGM: R$ 115,6 million
47 – LATITUDES: R$ 100 million
48 – AMERICAN TRAVEL: R$ 83 million
49 – AMBIENTAL: R$ 78 million
Não divulgaram seus números por política interna de cada empresa: Azul Viagens, Click Bus, Grupo Arbo (Diversa Turismo), Mobility, Paytrack, R11 Travel, RCA, Raidho, TTW Group e Tour House.
This report is produced by PANROTAS and FECOMERCIOSP to support your business decisions. The contents are valuable assets to Destinations and Travel Organizations, both domestic as well as international. For further information please contact ri@ fecomercio.com.br redacao@panrotas.com.br
