OECD Economic Outlook May 2019, Country Notes: Spain

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Spain The economy is projected to grow at a robust, but more moderate, pace in 2019 and 2020. Favourable financial conditions and continued solid employment growth will support domestic demand, which will remain the main driver of growth. The contribution of the external sector is projected to remain broadly neutral in the projection period. The government should stick to its medium-term fiscal targets to ensure a durable reduction of public debt, which remains high. If growth surprises on the upside, all windfall revenues should be used to reduce the debt ratio faster. More effective labour market policies and re-skilling are needed to reduce further unemployment and inequalities. Towards that end, increasing the share of active labour market spending on training and improving co-ordination of social and employment services are key. Growth remains resilient Driven by domestic demand, economic growth remains robust. Strong job creation, moderate inflation and some recent measures, such as increases in public sector wages, pensions and minimum wages, have boosted real disposable incomes and supported private consumption. Business investment continues to grow, supported by low financing costs and improved profit margins. Export growth has moderated in line with export markets. Labour market conditions continue to improve, with the unemployment rate having now fallen close to 14%.

Spain Domestic demand remains the main driver of growth % 8 6

Inflation and wage growth will pick up gradually

GDP

Headline inflation

Domestic demand

Core inflation¹

Net exports

Nominal wage rate

Y-o-y % changes 4 3

4 2

2 0

0

0

1

-2

0

-4 -1

-6 -8

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2014

2016

2018

2020

-2

1. Harmonised index of consumer prices excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco. Source: OECD Economic Outlook 105 database. StatLink 2 https://doi.org/10.1787/888933934926

OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, VOLUME 2019 ISSUE 1: PRELIMINARY VERSION © OECD 2019


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