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Netherlands After slowing to 0.2% in 2023, GDP is projected to pick up gradually to 0.5% in 2024 and 1.1% in 2025. Headline inflation is expected to fall to 3.7% in 2024 and to be close to target by the end of 2025. As the labour market remains tight, core inflation will remain elevated at 3.9% in 2024 before gradually falling towards 2% by the end of 2025. Export growth is expected to improve in 2024 and 2025 as external demand recovers. The fiscal stance is projected to be mildly restrictive despite a purchasing power package for low-income households and increased defence spending. In the medium term, the fiscal deficit is expected to deteriorate with rising expenditure on interest, climate policy and health care. While prudent fiscal policy is still required, the government should continue to tackle structural challenges, focusing on accelerating the green transition and reducing labour market tightness. The economy faces severe headwinds in 2023 The economy contracted in the first three quarters of 2023 driven by declines in the trade balance and household consumption. Headline inflation has declined steadily since April 2023, due to falling energy and food prices, with consumer prices in October 1% lower than a year earlier. However, core inflation remains elevated at 4.7% on the back of sharply rising collective labour agreement wage rates and a persistently tight labour market. Private consumption remains subdued, with stable but below long-term average consumer confidence. Business confidence has deteriorated steadily, with production in the industrial sector contracting by 9.3% over the year to September.
Netherlands
Source: CBS; and OECD Short-Term Indicators database. StatLink 2 https://stat.link/4sohgy
OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, VOLUME 2023 ISSUE 2: PRELIMINARY VERSION © OECD 2023