Social Safety Nets and Food Insecurity in MENA in the Time of COVID-19

POLICY DIALOGUES Social Safety Nets and Food Insecurity in MENA in the Time of COVID-19 May 2022– No. 59 | AFD-ERF COVID-19 MENA Monitor Research Partnership PITCH

lost their jobs and income. Based on

selling assets in the past month as a

A total of 52 million people in the

the COVID-19 MENA Monitor Household (CMMHH) surveys, about

coping strategy.

Middle East and North Africa (MENA) were chronically undernourished in 2019. About eight million more were expected to fall into poverty and be food insecure in the Arab region by

49% of Moroccans and 36% of Tunisians reported that their household’s monthly income decreased by more than 25% in

the end of 2021 owing to COVID-19.

November 2020 compared February 2020. About 20%

This study estimates if and to what extent social safety nets (SSNs)

Egyptians and 28% of Jordanians reported that their household’s

mitigated food insecurity in MENA in

monthly income decreased by more than 25% in February 2021 compared

the context of COVID-19.

ISSUES As MENA governments have generally been able to secure the adequate supply of food, food insecurity appears to be demand rather than supply driven, at least in the shortterm. COVID-19 has made people vulnerable to food insecurity as they

to of

to a year earlier.

Households

encountering

income

loss typically resort to adverse coping strategies that can hinder their development and wipe out efforts made to alleviate poverty. About 9% of Moroccans, 15% of Tunisians, 18% of Egyptians, and 9% of Jordanians

Our researchi sheds light on how SSNs affected the risk of food insecurity and the likelihood of adopting adverse coping strategies in MENA during COVID-19.

METHODS We make use of a unique dataset from the CMMHH surveys, recently released by the Economic Research Forum, within a difference-indifferences fixed-effects model framework. The CMMHH survey provides information on individuals interviewed from Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia over four waves between November 2020 and June 2021.

reported in 2020 that they resorted to

Authors Amira EL-SHAL, Eman MOUSTAFA, Nada ROSTOM,

Key words Food insecurity, social safety nets, difference-in-

Yasmine ABDELFATTAH

differences, COVID-19, MENA

Themes Microeconomics; Food security & COVID-19; Social protection; Applied Econometrics Find out more about this project: https://www.afd.fr/en/carte-des-projets/impact-covid-19-households-and-firms-menaregion Geography Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia

RESULTS

Changes in food insecurity and receipt of non-usual support from SSNs in MENA

There is regional heterogeneity in food insecurity trends during COVID-19.

Food security slightly improved between 2020 and 2021 in Egypt and Tunisia, while it worsened or remained the same in Morocco and Jordan. The improvement recorded in Tunisia was not enough, however, to bring food insecurity down to the level of the other three countries – see Figure (a).

Income loss and employability changes are key determinants of how food insecurity developed over the course of COVID-19. In the four countries, more than 40% of respondents reported their income decreased by at least 1% compared to pre-pandemic levels.

Employability generally improved between November 2020 and June 2021 and varied by country. In Jordan, only 37% of our sample reported being employed, compared to 48% in Morocco, 55% in Egypt, and 61% in Tunisia.

Receiving benefits from SSNs increased in the COVID-19 era.

The receipt of non-usual support (shockresponsive transfers disbursed beyond regular government support) increased in Egypt and Jordan between February and June, 2021. Around 14% of the sample were receiving non-usual support in Jordan in February 2021, compared to 7% in Egypt. By June 2021, the percentage of those receiving non-usual support increased more steeply in Egypt than in Jordan, reaching 20% and 22%, respectively – see Figure (b).

In Morocco and Tunisia, the highest level of support was provided in the early stages of COVID-19. In November 2020, 15% of the sample reported receiving non-usual support in Morocco, compared to 10% in Tunisia. But very few of those entitled to receive support in the first wave were still provided benefits by January 2021 (second round of data collection). This decrease in the number of beneficiaries could be attributed to the fact that the second COVID-19 wave started around December 2020. It seems that governments and charitable institutions were just being responsive then to the pandemic.

The type of the offered support was more of temporary and shock responsive. This explains why by the third survey wave (April 2021), social support picked up again in both countries.

Shock-responsive support from nongovernmental institutions was more effective than that from the government in mitigating food insecurity following COVID-19.

Government SSNs have no effect on food security in MENA, except for Tunisia.

Specifically, the probability of Tunisians who received government SSN benefits being unable to buy the amount of food they usually buy due to food price increase is 15 percentage points (ppts) lower than those who did not receive benefits.

Nonetheless, non-usual support from nongovernmental institutions significantly reduced the likelihood of the food insecurity incidence in MENA. This result holds for both Jordan and Morocco and is highly significant for the latter. Individuals who received nonusual support from non-governmental institutions in Morocco and Jordan were 22 ppts and 15 ppts respectively less likely to report being unable to buy their typical amount of food due to decreased household income and increased food prices.

No effect was detected of non-usual social support from the government or non-

governmental institutions on food insecurity in Egypt, which warrants further investigation.

SSNs mitigated the vulnerability of few subpopulations to food insecurity in MENA as COVID-19 endures.

Our estimates for the pooled sample indicate that non-usual government SSNs mitigated the possibly negative effects of being unemployed on food security, but only for one of the three used measures of food security.

No mitigating effects were observed for the widowed/divorced or rural residents in MENA. Receiving non-usual support from nongovernmental institutions appears to have a significant mitigating effect for women in MENA but no effect on other supposedly vulnerable subpopulations in the region.

Government SSNs mitigated the effect of food insecurity on adverse coping strategies in MENA during COVID-19.

The receipt of non-usual government support significantly mitigated the negative effect of food insecurity in MENA on resorting to adverse coping strategies, namely selling assets or any.

Our results also confirm the importance of food insecurity as a vital determinant of the likelihood of resorting to any coping strategy during COVID-19, be it adverse or not.

RECOMMENDATIONS   



i

It is the right time for policy makers in MENA to reconsider the targeting and delivery mechanisms of shock-responsive transfers, especially those provided by the government.

Joining forces with non-governmental institutions is crucial in times of large-scale shocks. Distributing government emergency funds through non-governmental channels can help reach those in greatest need.

Shock-responsive transfers promoting livelihood resilience should be integrated in governments’ policy responses to shocks to avoid permanent, negative developmental effects that may be triggered by the adoption of harmful coping strategies during crises.

Further investigation is needed into the effectiveness of shock-responsive transfers in settings where regular government support is already in place.

El-Shal et al. (2022) Social Safety Nets and Household Food Insecurity in the Era of COVID-19: Selected MENA Countries, AFD Research Papers no.247

Publishing Director Rémy Rioux Editor-in-Chief Thomas Melonio

Agence française de développement (AFD) 5, rue Roland Barthes | 75012 PARIS | France

For other publications of the Policy dialogues collection: https://www.afd.fr/en/collection/policy-dialogues

Legal deposit 2nd quarter 2022 ISSN in process | © AFD