Connecting with the Region report

Connecting with the Region: Examining Development Conditions along a Proposed North Shore to Metrotown Light Rail Corridor S.H. Nieweler, Department of Geography, Simon Fraser University C. Humphries, Department of Geography and Program in Planning, University of Toronto 1

Overview

This research project examines population and employment concentrations along a proposed 23km rapid transit corridor across the North Shore from Ambleside to the Second Narrows, and connecting with SkyTrain at the Brentwood and Metrotown regional hubs. As a result of worsening traffic congestion and lagging transport investment on the North Shore over the past several decades, concerns were expressed by North Shore businesses and residents regarding the deterioration of travel reliability and subsequent negative effects on the local economy and quality of life. The North Shore acts as a significant source of regional employment and port activities, and is served by a major regional transport corridor connecting with highly utilized natural amenities, tourist attractions, regional ferries and the Sea to Sky corridor. The significant growth of interaction between the North Shore and the region, in the absence of rapid transit, has resulted in a disproportionate impact on the Ironworkers Bridge, as the main point of entry for most traffic and goods movement. In conjunction with the adjacent freight rail bridge and its critical role for international trade, the Second Narrows area of Burrard Inlet represents a critical link in regional, provincial and national transportation systems.

Furthermore, its regional importance greatly outweighs that of the Lions Gate Bridge (First Narrows) road crossing, where growth has been more modest, and the mid-harbour SeaBus, which serves a more localized market. While acting as the eastern terminus of a dense lower North Shore corridor, the Second Narrows feeds into the Willingdon corridor, which is more centrally located in relation to rapidly increasing densities emerging along SkyTrain lines in the suburbs east of Vancouver, including dense transfer hubs at the Millennium Line in Brentwood and the Expo Line in Metrotown.

In light of these conditions, and the potential for an integrated multi-modal solution of regional significance at the Second Narrows, the research team reviewed recent academic literature related to optimum population and employment densities for rapid transit, seeking to determine whether the North Shore is ready for rapid transit today, and if current and future development conditions are favourable in comparison to regionally prioritized projects in Surrey and Vancouver/UBC.

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Methodology

This study has examined the suitability of current and future development conditions for a proposed rapid transit corridor connecting Ambleside in West Vancouver with Maplewood in North Vancouver and Metrotown in Burnaby, via the Second Narrows. Informed by the work of Cervero and Guerra (2011), the study team sought to objectively quantify population and employment levels within 400 metres of the corridor, or the catchment area capable of attracting the highest proportion of transit trips. While other factors should be considered as part of a more detailed study, our team considers Cervero’s extensive research on optimum catchment densities as being a critical factor in determining the suitability of rapid transit technology options (light rail, light Metro, Subway), and comparing them

among proposed corridors seeking large-scale investments. It is an objective measure in a field that is heavily influenced by political factors.

The proposed corridor alignment was determined by utilizing frequent transit corridors that connect major employment, population and amenity centres, including the Marine/Main corridor on the North Shore and Hastings/Willingdon corridors in Burnaby. With the exception of minor aberrations, we do not believe that there are logical alternative corridors for this proposed rapid transit line. For comparative purposes, we utilized the planned Arbutus-UBC corridor along Broadway-10th in Vancouver, and the Surrey-Newton-Guildford corridor in Surrey, as that project was nearly underway when this study was in its preliminary stages. While somewhat shorter in length, the capital cost of these projects may exceed that of the longer North Shore-Burnaby corridor in light of route and technology choices, therefore a comparison is necessary to assist in determining overall value for money.

Figure 1 – Ambleside to Metrotown Corridor and the Regional Rapid Transit Network

The strict use of a 400m radius was applied when calculating figures along each corridor. Extended catchment areas were utilized at major hubs for comparative purposes in some scenarios, where indicated, including the simultaneous inclusion of the full UBC campus and extended Lonsdale corridor.

The study team examined 2016 Census data to determine population levels within 400 meters of the corridor, augmenting these figures based on more recent development taking place. Employment was determined by utilizing the Simply Analytics database and verifying these figures with the assistance of local Chambers of Commerce, employers and through selective site visits. Full time equivalent students (FTE’s) were considered employment at post-secondary institutions. Future local and regional plans and some reasonable assumptions were made to determine long term population and employment.

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Findings and Analysis

Current Densities Current densities along the North Shore corridor easily justify investment in LRT according to the criteria set out by Cervero and Guerra (2011). The east-west corridor from Ambleside-Capilano University

reaches the upper threshold of LRT (30 persons and jobs per acre), while the Lonsdale corridor (75 persons and jobs per acre) exceeds subway thresholds. In comparison, the Arbutus-UBC corridor along Broadway cannot be justified as a subway corridor, as densities drop significantly west of Arbutus and are virtually non-existent for nearly 2km through the Endowment Lands. With relatively low growth planned, and few opportunities for large scale density, it would be well served by LRT in the long term.

Densities in Surrey are much lower at this time, and significant new development would be required to justify any rapid transit investment.

Current Population and Employment Comparison: North Shore On its own, the North Shore corridor between Ambleside and Capilano University exceeds the Broadway and Surrey corridors for absolute population and employment within its immediate catchment area.

Figure 2: Current Population and Employment - North Shore vs UBC vs Surrey

The balanced distribution of population and employment density (and extensive mixed uses) across the North Shore results in good ridership potential at most stations, with significant employment concentrations identified in several locations, including the Cap U-Lower Lynn-Maplewood area, the Lonsdale corridor, the Harbourside-Capilano Mall area and at Park Royal and Ambleside.

Figure 3: North Shore – Employment Concentrations

There are numerous areas of medium to high residential density including Ambleside, Park Royal, Capilano-Marine, Lonsdale and the emerging Lower Lynn district, and a significant quantity of low and mid-rise apartments have been developed along Marine and 3rd Street, and in Maplewood. These neighbourhoods can potentially generate significant ridership for this corridor.

Current Population and Employment Comparison: Ambleside to Metrotown When the Burnaby and North Shore corridors are combined, current population and employment figures greatly exceed those of the UBC and Surrey corridors. Burnaby adds several major mixed-use hubs to the corridor, including Hastings, Brentwood and Metrotown, as well as a major employment node in the vicinity of BCIT (including over 30,000 FTE students) and the Grand Villa casino. The jobshousing balance is of particular note along the combined corridor, as this generates strong two-way flows, thus maximizing the efficiency of train utilization and overall ridership. In contrast, the Arbutus to UBC and Surrey corridors each only possess a single major node and would be subject to less balanced travel patterns in the absence of significant new development throughout their routes.

Figure 4: Current Population and Employment – Ambleside-Metrotown vs UBC vs Surrey

Future Population and Employment Comparison: Ambleside to Metrotown With 20% of long term regional growth destined for the North Shore and Burnaby (mostly in the proposed rapid transit corridor), as compared to only 1.5% at UBC, the combined population and employment gap between the two corridors continues to widen, as compared to the present day (Metro Vancouver 2011). While Surrey is expected to receive significant growth in the long term, its traditional pattern has been dispersed rather than concentrated, which is not conducive to high transit ridership.

Official plans on the North Shore indicate significant growth along the corridor in North Vancouver District and City, including thousands of new residential units distributed among the Maplewood, Lower Lynn, 3rd Street, Lonsdale, Harbourside and Marine-Capilano areas. West Vancouver has more modest targets, but growth is being targeted to the Park Royal and Ambleside areas along the proposed corridor. The Squamish Nation has identified the potential for a very significant residential development in the vicinity of Park Royal, which could add several thousand new residential units to that area.

Burnaby is already one of the fastest growing municipalities in the region, and this growth is expected to continue based on the Official Plan, which seeks to focus nearly all municipal growth in their four major

urban hubs, including Brentwood and Metrotown, which are both slated to receive tens of thousands of new jobs and residents.

Figure 5: Future Population and Employment – Ambleside-Metrotown vs UBC vs Surrey

There are also additional opportunities for low and mid-rise growth along Willingdon Avenue and Hastings Street in Burnaby, and near the PNE in East Vancouver. The PNE has the potential to be a significant generator of trips during event times and as the area evolves in the future, particularly if a West Coast Express/light rail station were developed there.

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Conclusions

The Ambleside to Metrotown corridor is already dense and possesses widespread mixed uses throughout. Even in the absence of broader considerations related to bridge congestion and the potential for a large number of transfer passengers from the Expo Line, Millennium Line, West Coast Express and other transit services, the corridor on its own is well positioned to generate ridership conducive to a light rail system. Significant future corridor growth, and the disproportionate growth of suburban transit hubs east of Vancouver, only bolsters this argument. Furthermore, there is great potential for high levels of off-peak discretionary (non-work) travel to access the many natural amenities, ferries and attractions on the North Shore, which would be more easily accessible with a direct rapid transit connection to the rest of the region. The UBC and Surrey corridors do not possess the potential for a significant number of off-peak discretionary trips, nor do they possess any obvious congestion choke point, which would make transit significantly more attractive than driving.

In the spirit of performance-based investment, this study indicates that the Ambleside to Metrotown corridor should be considered at the same time as other prioritized rapid transit projects in Surrey and Vancouver/UBC. In light of the decision to pursue high cost technology options elsewhere, a broader analysis of costs and benefits associated with alternative technologies like LRT would be prudent, in order to match an appropriate technology with current and aspirational development conditions. In the context of limited transit capital budgets, this would likely lead to the conclusion that greater network coverage could be achieved, with better overall transportation outcomes, than is currently proposed, as the cost of LRT ($88 million/km – recent Canadian average) is far less than Light Metro ($233 million/km in Surrey) or subway ($500 million/km on Broadway) (Nieweler 2018).

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References

Cervero, R. and Guerra, E. (2011). Urban Densities and Transit: A Multi-dimensional Perspective. Berkeley, CA: UC Berkeley Center for Future Urban Transport.

City of North Vancouver (2019). Official Plan (updated). Viewed Dec. 2019.

District of North Vancouver (2020). Official Plan (updated). Viewed Dec. 2019.

District of West Vancouver (2020). Official Plan (updated). Viewed Dec. 2019.

City of Burnaby (2019). Official Plan (updated). Viewed Dec. 2019.

Metro Vancouver (2011). Metro 2040: Shaping our Future, the regional growth strategy. Burnaby: Metro Vancouver.

Nieweler, S. (2018). A Review of Recent Rapid Transit Project Costs in Canada. Course Material.

Burnaby: Simon Fraser University.

Statistics Canada (2016). Canada Census 2016. Ottawa: Statistics Canada.