Dairy Market R
Dairy Management Inc.
Vol u m e 2 5 | N o. 6
Overview
E
P
O
R
T
June 2022
D MI | NMP F
Dairy farmers and the entire industry continue to deal with a high-price, high cost environment unlike any seen for at least a decade, and in many ways, not
in the past four decades. March and April set consecutive all-time highs for the monthly average all-milk price in the U.S., while the four federal order class prices set a collective record in May. Monthly retail prices of whole and lowfat milk, butter, ice cream and yogurt also reached all-time highs. Meanwhile, monthly U.S. dairy exports posted a strong recovery in April from a recent low in January, amounting to 18.7 percent of U.S. milk solids production, the third highest ever for a single month by this measure. The combination of continued lower U.S. cow numbers, milk production and record-high milk and retail dairy prices is beginning to show signs of impacting domestic dairy product consumption at retail and also food service. However, since retail price inflation is occurring for all food and beverages, and throughout the entire economy, it is unclear how or whether this will play out differently than if higher dairy product prices were an exception in an overall non-inflationary economy.
Commercial Use of Dairy Products Domestic yogurt consumption growth was almost entirely robust during the first two years of the COVID pandemic, but it has turned negative during 2022. Consumption of other than American-type cheese has been generally stronger than for American types during the past year. Year-over-year changes in domestic consumption of most skim milk ingredient products, including dry skim milk, dry whey and lactose, has been mostly negative during the months of the pandemic, with whey protein concentrate an
exception. Domestic use of milk in all products was about 2 percent lower than a year earlier during February–April.
U.S. Dairy Trade 18.71 percent of U.S. milk solids production was estimated to have been exported in April, the third-highest ever for a single month by this measure, potentially positioning the industry for another strong calendar year of exports following an uncertain start and a sign of how export demand may be structurally higher than in the past, given that the strength continued on page 2
Domestic Commercial Use
Feb–Apr 2022
Feb–Apr 2021
Total Fluid Milk Products Yogurt Butter American–type Cheese All Other Cheese Total Cheese Dry Skim Milk All Products (milk equiv., milkfat basis) All Products (milk equiv., skim solids basis) All Products (milk equiv., total solids basis)
10,907 1,187 473 1,321 1,930 3,251 140 52,002 43,739 46,325
11,227 1,242 509 1,329 1,846 3,176 221 53,140 44,609 47,254
2021–2022 Change
Percent Change
-320 -55 -36 -8 84 76 -81 -1,137 -869 -930
-2.9% -4.4% -7.0% -0.6% 4.5% 2.4% -36.7% -2.1% -1.9% -2.0%
(million pounds)