Dairy Market R
Dairy Management Inc.
Vol u m e 2 5 | N o. 3
Overview
E
P
O
R
T
March 2022
D MI | NMP F
U.S. milk production fell below year-ago levels by increasing amounts during the period from November 2021 through January 2022, following a period of flat
growth last fall. January production was 1.6 percent below a year ago. Meanwhile, domestic commercial dairy use during the same period was strong for yogurt, butter, and all major types of cheese. That combination of lower supply and increased demand generated a spectacular $2.40/cwt monthly jump in the U.S. average all-milk price in January, to $24.20/cwt, the sixth highest monthly U.S. milk price ever. The Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) feed cost formula cost rose by only $0.39/cwt from a month earlier in January, catapulting the DMC well above the maximum $9.50/cwt coverage level to $11.54/cwt.
Commercial Use of Dairy Products Nationwide fluid milk sales showed the smallest consecutive three-month loss in almost a year during November–January. During the intervening period, rolling quarterly losses averaged 461 million pounds and 4 percent. These rates were unusually large since they were in comparison to the first year of the pandemic, when fluid milk sales mostly rose year-over-year. Domestic commercial use during these three months was particularly robust for yogurt, butter and all major types of cheese, which was reflected in equally solid growth in milkfat-based total milk equivalent use.
U.S. Dairy Trade U.S. dairy exports pulled back in December and January from the record pace they had set for much of the previous
year. While monthly exports ranged from about 17 to 19 percent of U.S. milk solids production from February through November, averaging about 18 percent, that level dropped to 14 percent in December and 13.6 percent in January. Reductions in skim milk powder, dry whey and whey protein concentrate exports largely drove the decline. Lower milk production in Europe and New Zealand, coupled with continued strong overall demand from dairy importing countries, would indicate that 2022 could also be a good export year for the U.S. dairy industry, despite its slow start. U.S. cheese imports had grown annually for more than a year but then flattened out in December and January. Imports of casein and protein concentrated whey products have also been growing.
Domestic Commercial Use
Nov 2021–Jan 2022
Total Fluid Milk Products Yogurt Butter American–type Cheese All Other Cheese Total Cheese Dry Skim Milk All Products (milk equiv., milkfat basis) All Products (milk equiv., skim solids basis) All Products (milk equiv., total solids basis)
11,514 1,106 591 1,348 1,967 3,314 168 56,178 45,435 48,815
Nov 2020–Jan 2021
2021–2022 Change
Percent Change
-203 33 39 28 48 76 -71 1,586 70 567
-1.7% 3.1% 7.1% 2.1% 2.5% 2.4% -29.7% 2.9% 0.2% 1.2%
(million pounds)
11,717 1,073 552 1,320 1,919 3,238 239 54,591 45,365 48,248