Q3 2023 Market Report Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point • Greater Carmel • Carmel Valley • Pebble Beach • Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast • Monterey & Del Rey Oaks • Pacific Grove • Seaside • Marina & East Garrison
MONTEREY COAST REALTY
Our Featured Listings One of Carmel’s Most Charming Neighborhoods
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Exceptional East Garrison Residence
Sea Haven Neighborhood Home in Marina
13418 Warren Ave. • 4 beds, 3.5 baths • $1,110,000
2965 Rainer Way • 3 beds, 2.5 baths • $1,398,000
Private and Quiet Condo in Monterey Woods
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325 Hannon Ave. • 3 beds, 1 bath • $895,000
Q3 2023 Market Report Get in-depth market updates for key areas across the Monterey Peninsula.
02
Market Overview
03
Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point
05
Greater Carmel
07
Carmel Valley
09
Pebble Beach
11
Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast
13
Pacific Grove
15
Monterey & Del Rey Oaks
17
Seaside
19
Marina & East Garrison
Market Reports Q3 2023
MONTEREY COAST REALTY’S
Significant Sales in Q3 2023
01
Peaceful Carmel Home Walkable to the Beach
Beautifully Renovated Home in Monterey
26246 Carmelo St. • SP: $3,900,000 • Rep. Buyer & Seller
172 Via Gayuba • SP: $2,100,000 • Represented Seller
Delightful Carmel-by-the-Sea Cottage
Picturesque Dream Retreat in Big Sur
Dolores 4 SE of 2nd • SP: $1,910,000 • Represented Seller
5038 Garrapatos Rd. • SP: $1,351,000 • Rep. Buyer & Seller
Exquisite Home in East Garrison Community
Inviting Coastal Home in The Dunes, Marina
13813 Sherman Blvd. • SP: $1,175,000 • Represented Seller
2731 Bungalow Dr. • SP: $1,025,000 • Represented Seller
Market Reports Q3 2023
Q3 2023
Market Overview The Monterey Peninsula had a busy summer beginning with the first ever US Women’s Open in July and continuing through a very successful Concours d’Elegance in August. Over the last three months, the streets have been bustling, shops busy and restaurants flourishing. Demand for real estate remained high and while inventory has improved a bit, the number of available homes for sale on the Peninsula is still well below pre-Covid levels.
Real estate sales, sales volume and pricing performance varied meaningfully by area this quarter. Overall, the nine markets we track on the Monterey Peninsula experienced an increase in total dollar volume over Q2 of 2023 and saw the second highest average sales price we have experienced in years. This performance was driven by an exceptional quarter in Carmel-by-the-Sea, where the number of sales increased over 50% above the previous quarter and the same quarter last year. Moreover, there were a few significant sales including the record sale of The Butterfly House, listed and sold by Carmel Realty Company, which drove the average sale price in Carmel to $4.2M.
Other markets did not fare as well. Pebble Beach for example, saw only 16 sales for a total of $58.5M in volume this quarter, both of which were the lowest in Pebble Beach over the last 12 quarters. This slowdown was driven by fewer highend sales, with only three homes sold in the quarter for more than $5M. While the Pebble Beach market was difficult this quarter, Carmel Realty Company continued to perform extremely well in the market accounting for over 50% of sales volume of all the listed homes sold. Currently, 16 of the 29 active listings in Pebble Beach are listed for over $5M. The market on the Peninsula is normalizing into a healthy balance and performing better than most markets across the country. After an extraordinary spike in home values coming out of Covid, our market experienced a much smaller reduction in Real Estate values than most of the country. Across the entire market, we estimate that the reduction in values coming out of Covid was somewhere in the 9% range. Now, with limited inventory and continued demand, it appears that in several of our markets the reduction in value has already evaporated. Average price for homes in many of our neighborhoods is already back to post-Covid levels that peaked in late 2021, and in some markets like Carmel, it is even higher. There are several macro-economic and geo-political issues that will continue to impact the real estate market over the next several quarters. However, given the strong desire to live in our amazing community, we expect our market to continue to outperform others and believe that sales, sales volume, and price to remain healthy for the rest of this year and into 2024.
John Romley
831.574.9393 • John@JohnRomley.com • www.JohnRomley.com REALTOR® DRE#01966766
M A R K E T U P DAT E
Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point Carmel-by-the-Sea had its best quarter in terms of number of sales and total sales volume since 2021. The number of sales jumped to 44, up from 27 and 17 the two previous quarters, and back to the typical average near 40 home sales per month. The average sales price reached its second highest mark on record at $4.2M, behind only Q4 2022 when there were just 19 sales. Total sales volume ($185M) was almost double that of last quarter and Q3 of 2022. Ten sales over $5M bumped the average sales price and total volume up this quarter after we saw just six such sales over the first six months of the year. The average days on market rose to 58 days, due to nine sales of houses that were on the market for over 100 (four of which were over 200) days before selling.
Q3 2023 AT A GLANCE
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE
$4,203,932 21.2%
versus Q2 2023
27%
versus Q3 2022
DAYS ON MARKET
58 56.8%
versus Q2 2023
70.6%
versus Q3 2022
SALES VOLUME
$184,973,000 97.5%
versus Q2 2023
99.5%
versus Q3 2022
UNITS SOLD
44 63%
versus Q2 2023
03
57.1%
versus Q3 2022
Q3 2023
Market Breakdown AVERAGE VS. MEDIAN SALES PRICE
SALES BY SEGMENT
in millions
23%
16%
10 homes
7 homes
32%
29%
14 homes
13 homes
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 Average
< $1m
Median
CLOSED SALES VOLUME BY QUARTER
NUMBER OF CLOSED SALES BY QUARTER
$1m–$2m
$2m–$3m
$3m–$5m
$5m+
MEDIAN SALES PRICE in millions
in millions
Q1
Q2
2022
Q3
2023
Q4
Q1
Q2
2022
Q3
Q4
2023
Q1
Q2
2022
Q3
Q4
2023
DID YOU KNOW? Carmel-by-the-Sea’s one-square mile village is as unique in charm as it is in fun facts. No high heels law, no street addresses, Clint Eastwood was once mayor, and Doris Day helped make Carmel dog heaven on Earth. “Monterey County Fun Facts”, Monterey County Convention & Visitors Bureau, 2020
Market Reports Q3 2023
M A R K E T U P DAT E
Q3 2023 AT A GLANCE
Greater Carmel The areas outside of Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point Greater Carmel experienced its fifth straight quarter with low sales numbers, tallying just 13 sales, below typical levels in the low twenties. Six of the 13 sales topped $2M, bringing the average sales price ($2.1M) up almost 25% versus last quarter. With just $71.8M in total sales volume thus far in 2023, the Greater Carmel area is on track for its lowest full-year total sales volume ($95.8M) since 2012.
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE
$2,111,087 24.7%
versus Q2 2023
11.6%
versus Q3 2022
DAYS ON MARKET
55 77.4%
versus Q2 2023
161.9%
versus Q3 2022
SALES VOLUME
$27,444,125 24.7%
versus Q2 2023
3.3%
versus Q3 2022
UNITS SOLD
13 no change versus Q2 2023
05
13.3%
versus Q3 2022
Q3 2023
Market Breakdown AVERAGE VS. MEDIAN SALES PRICE
SALES BY SEGMENT
in millions
8%
1 home
15%
2 homes
31%
4 homes
46%
6 homes
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 Average
< $1m
Median
CLOSED SALES VOLUME BY QUARTER
NUMBER OF CLOSED SALES BY QUARTER
$1m–$2m
$2m–$3m
$3m–$5m
$5m+
MEDIAN SALES PRICE in millions
in millions
Q1
Q2
2022
Q3
2023
Q4
Q1
Q2
2022
Q3
Q4
2023
Q1
Q2
2022
Q3
Q4
2023
DID YOU KNOW? Point Lobos State Reserve near Carmel hosts a geologic wonder: rocks of four “ages” can be found there, including the unusual Carmel formation dating back to the Paleocene age (over 60 million years old). “Monterey County Fun Facts”, Monterey County Convention & Visitors Bureau, 2020
Market Reports Q3 2023
M A R K E T U P DAT E
Q3 2023 AT A GLANCE
Carmel Valley AVERAGE SELLING PRICE After a strong Q2, Carmel Valley saw sales drop from 53 to 43 (typical levels range in the low to mid 50s). Average sales price was strong for the quarter at $1.85M, up 3.6% versus last quarter, and down just 5.5% from the record high Q3 of 2022. Between Monterey Coast Realty and sister brokerage Carmel Realty Company, our company double ended the top two sales in the area for the quarter: 1 Vuelo De Las Palomas and 128 Rancho Road.
$1,850,367 3.6%
versus Q2 2023
5.5%
versus Q3 2022
DAYS ON MARKET
53 8.2%
versus Q2 2023
39.5%
versus Q3 2022
SALES VOLUME
$79,565,788 15.9%
versus Q2 2023
13.6%
versus Q3 2022
UNITS SOLD
43 18.9%
versus Q2 2023
07
8.5%
versus Q3 2022
Q3 2023
Market Breakdown AVERAGE VS. MEDIAN SALES PRICE
SALES BY SEGMENT
in millions
5%
2%
2 homes
1 home
28%
30%
12 homes
13 homes
35%
15 homes
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 Average
< $1m
Median
CLOSED SALES VOLUME BY QUARTER
NUMBER OF CLOSED SALES BY QUARTER
$1m–$2m
$2m–$3m
$3m–$5m
$5m+
MEDIAN SALES PRICE in millions
in millions
Q1
Q2
2022
Q3
2023
Q4
Q1
Q2
2022
Q3
Q4
2023
Q1
Q2
2022
Q3
Q4
2023
DID YOU KNOW? Monterey County is the largest grower of Chardonnay in the United States and the largest grower of Pinot Noir in California. Monterey County has 349 vineyards, 82 bonded wineries and 65 tasting rooms. “Monterey County Fun Facts”, Monterey County Convention & Visitors Bureau, 2020
Market Reports Q3 2023
M A R K E T U P DAT E
Q3 2023 AT A GLANCE
Pebble Beach AVERAGE SELLING PRICE High-priced sales remained difficult to come by in Pebble Beach during Q3 2023. Just two sales over $10M and one sale between $5-$10M occurred in Q3. MCR’s sister brokerage, Carmel Realty Company, represented both the seller and buyer of the top sale during the quarter and also represented the seller for the second $10M+ sale and the singular $5M+ sale. Back-to-back quarters of just 16 and 17 home sales resulting in $58.5M and $63.8M respectively in total sales volume, were each the lowest in the area over the last three years. 29 homes remain on the market heading into Q3, including 16 homes over $5M, six of which are over $10M.
$3,658,594 2.5%
versus Q2 2023
6.7%
versus Q3 2022
DAYS ON MARKET
58 20.8%
versus Q2 2023
123.1%
versus Q3 2022
SALES VOLUME
$58,537,500 8.2%
versus Q2 2023
44.7%
versus Q3 2022
UNITS SOLD
16 5.9%
versus Q2 2023
09
40.7%
versus Q3 2022
Q3 2023
Market Breakdown AVERAGE VS. MEDIAN SALES PRICE
SALES BY SEGMENT
in millions
6%
1 home
19%
3 homes
19%
3 homes
56%
9 homes
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 Average
< $1m
Median
CLOSED SALES VOLUME BY QUARTER
NUMBER OF CLOSED SALES BY QUARTER
$1m–$2m
$2m–$3m
$3m–$5m
$5m+
MEDIAN SALES PRICE in millions
in millions
Q1
Q2
2022
Q3
2023
Q4
Q1
Q2
2022
Q3
Q4
2023
Q1
Q2
2022
Q3
Q4
2023
DID YOU KNOW? The Lone Cypress tree, located on 17-Mile Drive in Pebble Beach, is a scenic landmark for the Peninsula and is nearly 300 years old. Monterey Cypress trees are a species native only to this region and can live up to 4,000 years. “Monterey County Fun Facts”, Monterey County Convention & Visitors Bureau, 2020
Market Reports Q3 2023
M A R K E T U P DAT E
Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast Six total sales during Q3 was the most of any quarter this year after five homes sold the previous two quarters. The average sales price in the area came in at $3.8M for the quarter. There were no $10M+ homes sold, but two which sold over $5M. Ten of the 20 remaining active listings in the area are above $5M in list price, six of which are over $10M.
Q3 2023 AT A GLANCE
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE
$3,821,833 40.1%
versus Q2 2023
0.8%
versus Q3 2022
DAYS ON MARKET
56 28.2%
versus Q2 2023
31.7%
versus Q3 2022
SALES VOLUME
$22,931,000 28.1%
versus Q2 2023
39.5%
versus Q3 2022
UNITS SOLD
6 20%
versus Q2 2023
11
40%
versus Q3 2022
Q3 2023
Market Breakdown AVERAGE VS. MEDIAN SALES PRICE
SALES BY SEGMENT
in millions
33%
17%
2 homes
1 home
17%
1 home
33%
2 homes
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 Average
< $1m
Median
CLOSED SALES VOLUME BY QUARTER
NUMBER OF CLOSED SALES BY QUARTER
$1m–$2m
$2m–$3m
$3m–$5m
$5m+
MEDIAN SALES PRICE in millions
in millions
Q1
Q2
2022
Q3
2023
Q4
Q1
Q2
2022
Q3
Q4
2023
Q1
Q2
2022
Q3
Q4
2023
DID YOU KNOW? The Bixby Bridge in Big Sur was built by prisoners eager to earn “good time” off their prison sentences. It is one of the world’s highest single-span bridges at 714 feet long by 260 feet high. “Monterey County Fun Facts”, Monterey County Convention & Visitors Bureau, 2020
Market Reports Q3 2023
M A R K E T U P DAT E
Q3 2023 AT A GLANCE
Pacific Grove AVERAGE SELLING PRICE Quarter 3 of 2023 in Pacific Grove was consistent with its previous three quarters dating back to Q4 2022 in terms of sales with 30 for the quarter (versus 32, 30, 30). Average sales price, hit a record high, nearing $1.78M. This was up 15% versus both last quarter and the same quarter of last year. Average days on the market finished the quarter at just 22 days, showing strong buyer demand when quality homes come on the market in Pacific Grove. Unfortunately for buyers, supply continues to be low with just 18 active listings on the market moving into Q4.
$1,779,178 15%
versus Q2 2023
15%
versus Q3 2022
DAYS ON MARKET
22 26.7%
versus Q2 2023
4.3%
versus Q3 2022
SALES VOLUME
$53,375,342 7.8%
versus Q2 2023
28.1%
versus Q3 2022
UNITS SOLD
30 6.3%
versus Q2 2023
13
37.5%
versus Q3 2022
Q3 2023
Market Breakdown AVERAGE VS. MEDIAN SALES PRICE
SALES BY SEGMENT
in millions
7%
2 homes
23%
20%
7 homes
6 homes
50%
15 homes
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 Average
< $800k $800k–$1.2m $1.2m–$2m
Median
CLOSED SALES VOLUME BY QUARTER
NUMBER OF CLOSED SALES BY QUARTER
$2m–$3m
$3m+
MEDIAN SALES PRICE in millions
in millions
Q1
Q2
2022
Q3
2023
Q4
Q1
Q2
2022
Q3
Q4
2023
Q1
Q2
2022
Q3
Q4
2023
DID YOU KNOW? The Monarch Butterfly Sanctuary in Pacific Grove is one of the largest monarch overwintering sites in America. The monarchs arrive in October after a 2,000-mile migration and overwinter until February. “Monterey County Fun Facts”, Monterey County Convention & Visitors Bureau, 2020
Market Reports Q3 2023
M A R K E T U P DAT E
Monterey & Del Rey Oaks Monterey experienced 52 total sales during Q3, down 21% from last quarter and below the typical average over 75. The average sales price ($1.26M) was up 10.9% versus last quarter and back to a consistent price with what we have seen over the last two years. Just one sale over $3M occurred in the quarter, with Pasadera and Monterra contributing just one home sale over $2M in the quarter. The median sales price returned to $1.18M in Q3, after falling below $1M in Q2. A slightly higher than average 48 active listings remain on the market at the end of the quarter, showing promise for an uptick in sales during the quarter ahead.
Q3 2023 AT A GLANCE
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE
$1,258,829 10.9%
versus Q2 2023
2.3%
versus Q3 2022
DAYS ON MARKET
35 40%
versus Q2 2023
20.7%
versus Q3 2022
SALES VOLUME
$65,459,130 12.6%
versus Q2 2023
7.6%
versus Q3 2022
UNITS SOLD
52 21.2%
versus Q2 2023
15
5.5%
versus Q3 2022
Q3 2023
Market Breakdown AVERAGE VS. MEDIAN SALES PRICE
SALES BY SEGMENT
in millions
10%
2%
5 homes
1 home
23%
12 homes
38%
20 homes
27%
14 homes
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 Average
< $800k $800k–$1.2m $1.2m–$2m
Median
CLOSED SALES VOLUME BY QUARTER
NUMBER OF CLOSED SALES BY QUARTER
$2m–$3m
$3m+
MEDIAN SALES PRICE in millions
in millions
Q1
Q2
2022
Q3
2023
Q4
Q1
Q2
2022
Q3
Q4
2023
Q1
Q2
2022
Q3
Q4
2023
DID YOU KNOW? The Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary covers 5,312 square miles. This is one and a half times the size of the largest national park in the continental U.S. At its center is a submarine canyon twice as deep as the Grand Canyon. “Monterey County Fun Facts”, Monterey County Convention & Visitors Bureau, 2020
Market Reports Q3 2023
M A R K E T U P DAT E
Q2 Q3 2023 2023 AT AT A A GLANCE GLANCE
Seaside AVERAGE SELLING PRICE This quarter, Seaside hit a record high in average sales price at $993K, up an incredible 16% from last quarter and 29% from last year. Thirteen homes sold for over $1M during the quarter after just five such sales over the previous six months. The new development, The Enclave at Cypress Grove, had three MLS sales over $1M during the quarter and Seaside Highlands also contributed three sales over $1M. The median sales price also reached a record high at $875K, showing the rising price of other homes in the area, separate from the new developments. The number of sales in the area came in at 35 for the quarter, the most since Q3 of last year, but still below the typical levels in the mid to high forties. Lack of inventory is still affecting this market, assisting in the increase in sale prices.
$993,840 16.3%
versus Q2 2023
29.2%
versus Q3 2022
DAYS ON MARKET
38 8.6%
versus Q2 2023
5.6%
versus Q3 2022
SALES VOLUME
$34,784,394 35.7%
versus Q2 2023
7.7%
versus Q3 2022
UNITS SOLD
35 16.7%
versus Q2 2023
17
16.7%
versus Q3 2022
Q3 2023
Market Breakdown AVERAGE VS. MEDIAN SALES PRICE
SALES BY SEGMENT
in millions
3%
1 home
37%
13 homes
40%
14 homes
20%
7 homes
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 Average
< $400k
Median
CLOSED SALES VOLUME BY QUARTER
NUMBER OF CLOSED SALES BY QUARTER
$400k– $600k
$600k– $800k
$800k– $1m
$1m+
MEDIAN SALES PRICE in millions
in millions
Q1
Q2
2022
Q3
2023
Q4
Q1
Q2
2022
Q3
Q4
2023
Q1
Q2
2022
Q3
Q4
2023
DID YOU KNOW? The widely acclaimed Monterey Jazz Festival has occurred since 1958, and is the longest continuously running jazz festival in the world. Past jazz greats who have performed include Miles Davis, Stan Getz and Dizzie Gillespie. “Monterey County Fun Facts”, Monterey County Convention & Visitors Bureau, 2020
Market Reports Q3 2023
M A R K E T U P DAT E
Marina & East Garrison Marina and East Garrison saw another quarter of high sale prices. The average sales price during the quarter was $950K, just 2.4% below the record high set last quarter at $973K. 37 Sales during the quarter was consistent with last quarter’s 36, but still below the typical 40-plus sale quarters we have seen since 2017. Days on market came down to an average of 27. While most areas went up in days on market this quarter, the Marina and East Garrison region and Pacific Grove are the only two that fell, showing buyer demand remains high here.
Q2 Q3 2023 2023 AT AT A A GLANCE GLANCE
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE
$949,783 2.4%
versus Q2 2023
8.6%
versus Q3 2022
DAYS ON MARKET
27 10%
versus Q2 2023
15.6%
versus Q3 2022
SALES VOLUME
$35,141,983 .03%
versus Q2 2023
4.3%
versus Q3 2022
UNITS SOLD
37 2.8%
versus Q2 2023
19
11.9%
versus Q3 2022
Q3 2023
Market Breakdown AVERAGE VS. MEDIAN SALES PRICE
SALES BY SEGMENT
in millions
13%
5 homes
27%
38%
10 homes
14 homes
22%
8 homes Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 Average
< $600k
Median
CLOSED SALES VOLUME BY QUARTER
NUMBER OF CLOSED SALES BY QUARTER
$600k– $800k
$800k– $1M
$1M– $1.2M
$1.2M– $2M
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
in millions
Q1
Q2
2022
Q3
2023
Q4
Q1
Q2
2022
Q3
Q4
2023
Q1
Q2
2022
Q3
Q4
2023
DID YOU KNOW? As the number one agricultural region in the United States, Salinas Valley earned its nickname “Salad Bowl of the World” due to the wide variety of fruits and vegetables grown here. “Monterey County Fun Facts”, Monterey County Convention & Visitors Bureau, 2020
Market Reports Q3 2023
Representing Buyers & Sellers of Quality Properties Across the Monterey Peninsula
The quality of life on the Monterey Peninsula is unmatched. Let us help make it your reality.
Monterey Coast Realty represents buyers and sellers of quality properties from cozy cottages to magnificent estates throughout the Monterey Peninsula all the way east to Salinas Valley, through Carmel Valley and south to Big Sur.
Top 1% of Licensed Agents in California*
John Romley
REALTOR® DRE#01966766
Character, Community, and Lifelong Relationships
831.574.9393 John@JohnRomley.com • www.JohnRomley.com *by sales volume according to Real Trends and as featured in The Wall Street Journal
Locally Owned. Globally Connected. Results Driven Experts. MontereyCoastRealty.com • 831.624.2300 • DRE #01871677