Economic Outlook Report

Metropolistics Report 2016 info@metropolistgroup.com | Metropolist Group | Office: 206.623.5118 | 2931 1st Avenue South| Seattle, WA 98134

Market data Around the Sound

General stats

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Number of Seattle solds

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Average prices, ranges, std. dev.

info@metropolistgroup.com | Metropolist Group | Office: 206.623.5118 | 2931 1st Avenue South| Seattle, WA 98134

 

Interest Rate Predictions -

Add Chart that shows 4 data sources and interest rate predictions Chart: Interest rates and impact on average sales price – Source data: Federal Housing Financing Administration

info@metropolistgroup.com | Metropolist Group | Office: 206.623.5118 | 2931 1st Avenue South| Seattle, WA 98134

Seattle Area Sale Price, Average $670,000

$642,500

$615,000

$587,500

$560,000

Feb-19

Apr-19

Jun-19

Aug-19

Oct-19

Dec-19

Source: Northwest Multiple Listing Service Sale Price, Median $590,000

$565,000

$540,000

$515,000

$490,000 Feb-19

Apr-19

Jun-19

Aug-19

Oct-19

Dec-19

Source: Northwest Multiple Listing Service

info@metropolistgroup.com | Metropolist Group | Office: 206.623.5118 | 2931 1st Avenue South| Seattle, WA 98134

Sale Price to List Price Ratio 105.00%

103.75%

102.50%

101.25%

100.00%

Feb-19

Apr-19

Jun-19

Aug-19

Oct-19

Dec-19

Source: Northwest Multiple Listing Service Active Listings, Number of 1000

752

750 588

606

562

630

633

647

666

676

475

500

450 358

250

0

Feb-19

Apr-19

Jun-19

Aug-19

Oct-19

Dec-19

Source: Northwest Multiple Listing Service

Buyer’s Marketplace

The Great Migration info@metropolistgroup.com | Metropolist Group | Office: 206.623.5118 | 2931 1st Avenue South| Seattle, WA 98134

Buyer’s stats highlights and insights

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Net migration to Seattle

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Number of residential units currently under development

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Cost of rent predictions

You’ve likely heard of the great tech migration to King County. As major technology corporations (Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Tableau, Zillow, the list goes on) are actively recruiting new employees from the San Francisco Bay Area. But it is not just technology, with a healthy job market and steady economic growth, King County is a desirable city to relocate to for a career in a variety of industries.

Just how many new residents are we talking about? And where else are all these new faces coming from?

According to the Washington Department of Licensing, King County recorded a staggering 71,058 new drivers from out of state or out of the country in the year of 2015, or approximately 195 per day. That accounts for approximately 36% of the total migration to Washington State.

Comparing 2015 to the last ten years, we see that both 2014 and 2015 net migration numbers have surpassed the previous “height of the market” before the 2008 crash.

170000

127500

85000

42500

0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Figure 2 Net Migration by Year, Washington State

Source: Washington Department of Licensing info@metropolistgroup.com | Metropolist Group | Office: 206.623.5118 | 2931 1st Avenue South| Seattle, WA 98134

The numbers reported for January 2016 predict another strong year for net migration. With the Department of Licensing reporting 6,220 people for the migration in January of 2016. This is up 5.5% from the 5,895 reported in January of 2015.

Breaking the January of 2016 numbers down further, we can see that the states of California, Texas, Oregon, Illinois, Florida, Arizona, New York, Colorado, Georgia and Virginia account for more than 50% of the total migration to King County for the month.

1400

1328

1050

700 386

350

324

230

0 CALIFORNIA OREGON

227

219

FLORIDA

214

198

158

133

NEW YORK GEORGIA

Figure 1 King County Migration, January 2016, Top 10 States

Source: Washington Department of Licensing What does this mean for real estate?

These migration numbers are the primary driver behind a hypercompetitive marketplace, with record low inventory supplies. With greater than 5% increase from January 2015 to January 2016, these market conditions look like they will continue for the foreseeable future.

Seller’s Marketplace 

info@metropolistgroup.com | Metropolist Group | Office: 206.623.5118 | 2931 1st Avenue South| Seattle, WA 98134

Market data

Seller’s stats highlights and insights

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Year over year appreciation

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Property tax predictions

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Development predictions

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Cost of selling your home

NWMLS Data

Questions about the offer review process?

KCM Data

info@metropolistgroup.com | Metropolist Group | Office: 206.623.5118 | 2931 1st Avenue South| Seattle, WA 98134

Upcoming events Movie Night

Disco Night

info@metropolistgroup.com | Metropolist Group | Office: 206.623.5118 | 2931 1st Avenue South| Seattle, WA 98134

Working with Grace Your home is a special place. Imagine all the ways your home impacts your life, your happiness and your financial future.

Whether you are a first time home buyer or a full-time investor, home buying and selling can be and should be an educational and enjoyable process. That is why it is important to work with someone who understands this. The understanding of this process comes from experience. I am incredibly fortunate to have joined the Meister & Stewart team at Metropolist. Our team has over 20 years of experience in the Seattle market and has successfully closed hundreds of transactions.

I have been interested in houses my entire life. When I was young, I would spend hours playing my version of video games, which was designing houses in my three-dimensional architectural program.

While studying Civil Engineering at Vanderbilt University, I continued to learn about conceptual and structural design as well as construction project management. I practiced the engineering approach to problem solving, working with known requirements and determining the necessary steps to produce the best possible end result. You already know what your real estate goals are, it is my job to walk you through the challenging and rewarding steps of getting there.

Recent Transactions •

Add in 2-3 recent transactions

info@metropolistgroup.com | Metropolist Group | Office: 206.623.5118 | 2931 1st Avenue South| Seattle, WA 98134

Real Estate Talk (NEED TO REVISE, taken from Redfin) Absorption Rate Absorption rate is the rate at which homes sell in an area. The higher the absorption rate, the faster homes are selling. Absorption rate is calculated by taking the number of homes that sold in a month in and divide it by the total number of homes for sale at the end of the month. If an area contains homes in two different price ranges, you can calculate the absorption just for homes in your price range.

For example, if 6 homes sell in June for between $300,000 – $500,000 and 30 are still for sale at the end of the month, the absorption rate is 6/30 or 20%. If 1 home sells and 15 remain, the absorption rate is 1/15th or 6%. An absorption rate above 20% has traditionally been associated with a seller's market, in which homes are selling fast. Absorption rates below 15% are associated with a buyer's market, which means homes are selling relatively slowly.

Months of Supply This number tells you how many months it would take for all the current homes for sale on the market to sell, given a monthly sales volume. Four to five months of supply is average: if the number is smaller, this means that buyers are dominating the market and there are relatively few sellers. The greater the number, this means there are more sellers than buyers. You can calculate the months of supply by dividing the total number of homes for sale over the number of homes sold in one month. For example, if you search in a neighborhood and notice that there were 30 homes for sale in June, but only 10 actually sold, this means that there are 3 months of supply left in the market if only 10 homes sold for each month and no more homes came on the market.

 

info@metropolistgroup.com | Metropolist Group | Office: 206.623.5118 | 2931 1st Avenue South| Seattle, WA 98134

My Neighborhood Focus Beacon Hill Add a few sentences of why Beacon Hill here.

AVERAGE

BEACON HILL

LIST PRICE

$427,255

PRICE PER SF

255

SQUARE FOOTAGE

1826

LOT SIZE

7157

 

3% 4%

8%

14%

Single Family Residential Townhouse Condo/Coop Multi-Family Vacant Land

71%

ade Built of Sold Properties (Beacon Hill)

13

73 58 40

38

29

25

17 17 info@metropolistgroup.com | Metropolist Group | Office: 206.623.5118 | 2931 1st Avenue South| Seattle, WA 98134 1941-1950

1961-1970

1981-1990

2001-2010

Neighborhoods Downtown Seattle Average

DOWNTOWN

List Price

$425,033

Price Per SF

$569

Square Footage

1,184

Lot Size

N/A Decade Built of Sold Properties (Downtown)

500

431

375 250 116

125 41

38 20 23

67

74

10 19 0 1 0 1901-1910 1931-1940 1961-1970 1991-2000

% Other

Number of Sold Properties - Downtown (Feb 2015 – Jan 2016)

917 Source: NWMLS

info@metropolistgroup.com | Metropolist Group | Office: 206.623.5118 | 2931 1st Avenue South| Seattle, WA 98134

Things that I need from the team •

PHOTOS of neighborhoods

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Two sentences about why they love the neighborhood.

info@metropolistgroup.com | Metropolist Group | Office: 206.623.5118 | 2931 1st Avenue South| Seattle, WA 98134