Metropolist Magazine: WInter 2022, By The Numbers

MAGAZINE

by thenumbers

2022 | WINTER

LETTER FROM THE FOUNDERS

2022: COVID, CONNECTION & COMMUNITY IT REALLY DOES SEEM LIKE A NEVER-ENDING GROUNDHOG DAY… But, despite the persistence of Covid, the housing market has remained strong. Metropolist is growing thanks to our amazing brokers and clients, due to high buyer demand, low inventory, and historically low interest rates. Our own Metropolist data-dog Eric Martin said it so well with this; “The graphs in both the single family and condo pages (pages 5-6) are beautiful studies in cause-and-effect correlation. As inventory drops, prices go up.” Eric’s take is music to the ears of single-family home sellers and homeowners watching their equity rise. But it is tough news for buyers and especially first-time buyers who, to a great degree, are getting priced out of single-family homes in the Seattle area. Condos have essentially become the only option for buyers looking under $400,000 in Seattle.

STAYING THE COURSE WITH GROWTH AND CONNECTION Our brokers have collaborated, played, and innovated (even over Zoom) to maintain company culture and continue to improve the real estate industry and the experience of our clients. While Covid remains a profound and constant factor in the way we do business, keeping our culture connected and our colleague and client relationships sound and supported are still the keys to everyone’s success.

AND BECAUSE OF THIS WE ARE GROWING! Metropolist is so proud and excited to announce the opening of our new West Seattle office in the first quarter of 2022. We have also opened two satellite meeting spaces, one in NE Seattle and one on the East Side, so that our brokers and their clients have a place to do business with more ease and convenience.

We are thrilled to share that our SODO Events Space, The Factory, is back online and available for private event rentals, corporate events, and yes, weddings!

We, like so many, have missed this dynamic and beautiful place to connect and celebrate with each other. We are looking forward to a bustling events season with lots of celebrations in the queue.

WE GIVE WHERE WE LIVE

: Love Song Photography

Lack of affordable housing is a crisis in King County. The wealth gap is ever growing, and the result is thousands of neighbors experiencing homelessness. This disproportionately effects People of Color, specifically women and children. At last count over 39% of these neighbors were black and indigenous while only comprising about 6% of the overall population.

Metropolist pledges 25% of our annual profits to support these neighbors by partnering with Evergreen Treatment Services’ REACH program because we believe giving where we are living is the best way to make an impact. And serving people impacted by the lack of affordable housing in our city just makes good sense.

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COMMUNITY MATTERS

COMMUNITY PARTNER We are proud of our ongoing partnership with

EVERGREEN TREATMENT SERVICES

+ The REACH program of Evergreen Treatment Services improves the lives of more than 3,500 King County residents each year.

Whether it’s a visit to a doctor, a warm meal, or getting into substance use treatment, their work changes lives.

: DIWAS Photography

We look forward to continuing to work closely with Evergreen Treatment Services and their REACH team by donating 25% of our profit, elevating their voice on our channels, and taking part in activities and events that support their work. ‘s

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INSIGHTS

INSIDER INSIGHTS

SARAH GEORGER-CLARK Broker

MITZI VERLINDI Sr. Loan Advisor

GRETCHEN SCHMIDT Managing Broker

DAVID WARREN Managing Broker

HOW TO: A DIAMOND IN THE ROUGH

USE THE STARBUCKS METHOD

S.G.C. Look for homes that aren’t staged, poorly lit photographs, dated kitchens, decorated with owner’s dated belongings, and anything else that turns you off at first glance. Go see it anyway and listen to your Realtor.

D.W. You cannot predict the future. I recommend focusing on an area that works best for you and your lifestyle first. If you plan on living in the home long-term appreciation will grow eventually everywhere. If you’re an investor and want a quicker way to appreciation, use the Starbucks method. Starbucks spends millions per year tracking population shifts and growth; specifically a populous with disposable income. New stores are often placed in areas that are estimated to grow during the early stages of a neighborhood change.

THE MEANING OF RISING INTEREST RATES IN 2022 M.V. The rates are expected to rise to 3.75%, so not too huge a hike. This is an increase of about $200 per month in monthly payments for a $750,000 purchase price with 20% Down Payment, so a loan amount of $600,000.

The brokers that work with me know that I am pretty conservative and this increase of $200 should not impact the debt to income ratios (DTI) of your clients if you have me pre-qualify them. I will make sure their DTI will qualify by using that higher rate to play it safe.

WHERE OH WHERE HAS THE BUYER’S MARKET GONE G.S. We have such a long standing, and not-improving shortage of new housing starts, I don’t think we will see a buyer’s market until there is a very dramatic increase in new home construction. We’ve been building homes basically the same way for hundreds of years – individually, on-site – and that doesn’t go quickly. Until we completely reimagine the way homes are built, the housing supply won’t catch up. Some innovative companies are starting to build homes modularly, off-site. When new construction methods can start producing more homes en masse, we might see a more balanced market. Until then, it will remain a seller’s market.

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A VIEW WILL DO S.M. Unless there is something specific recorded on title, views are not protected. You should be aware of any potential for construction on neighboring homes that might block your view at some point. You can check for building permits on the city website, and/or talk to the neighbors to find out if they or someone they know has any plans to go up at some point. If the house is on a hill and the houses below it are already 2-3 levels and not blocking the view, then you are generally pretty safe to know you’ll be able to enjoy your view without it changing.

BUT WHAT ABOUT THE BUBBLE J.B. There are no economic indicators that our market is a housing bubble. In any case, I ALWAYS advise my clients not to try to time the market. It’s best to make decisions based on your own personal circumstances and priorities, family needs, employment situation, financial well being, etc.

INSIGHTS

SARAH MOSLEY Broker

AUSTIN & MARTIN Broker Team

JIM BARRETT Broker

SARA POULSEN Broker

PREPARATION IS THE KEY TO A SELLER’S POTENTIAL...

A&M There is a reason “lights” is the first word in “Lights, camera, action.” Put bright, new, warm light bulbs in every fixture in the home.

The

Think about where prospective buyers are going to park when viewing the home. Walk that path from the car door to the front door. Notice every thing that detracts from a great first impression and fix it.

Have the home inspected before you put it on the market and make the inspection available to prospective buyers.

This gives you a chance to fix what you can and disclose what you need to. It also removes the risk of having buyers do an inspection after you have accepted their offer and then needing to renegotiate based on what they find.

problematic nature of RealEstate

S R E T T E L E V O L (and videos)

• Love Letters are a practice steeped in discrimination

• They encourage unconscious bias to take over during the decision making process

• They support a system that pushes quality buyers out for no tangible or legitimate reason

• They have the potential to cause a seller to unknowlingly violate fair housing laws

...AND TO A BUYER’S SMOOTH SAILING “We would love a family to buy our home.”

“This couple seems so great.”

“He He has such a great job, it seems more likely to close”

Other resources:

S.P. I prepare my buyers ahead of time by giving them the itinerary of how many homes we are seeing and the schedule. Explaining that we don’t have unlimited time, and when/where the next one is, helps keep us on track.

I also bring snacks if we are seeing 5 or 6 houses. If possible I recommend leaving children with a caregiver.

It’s easier to see the house for what it is without chasing a child or answering questions.

Metropolist is doing our best to make changes in our marketplace by informing our buyers, sellers and fellow brokers about the problematic nature of this practice and discouraging it.

• Washington Realtors blog post (2014): The Ultimate Love Letter • Washington Realtors blog post (2020): What is a Buyer Love Letter • NAR Fair Housing Corner: Love Letter or Liability Letter • Nerdwallet mortgages article: Why It’s Time to Dump Home Buyer Love Letters

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BY THE NUMBERS // SEATTLE METRO SINGLE FAMILY HOMES

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has been a real lesson in economics. Supply-chain issues have resulted in diminished supply and higher prices for many products. The real estate market already had a shortage of inventory prior to the pandemic and the lack of supply has only gotten worse over the past two years. The number of homes available in the Seattle market at the end of 2021 was at an historic low. These graphs illustrate that when inventory goes down, prices go up.

1184

1157 1097 1000

1008

961

910

940

868

823

662

661 583 559

517

827

808

792 647

918

876

720

725

691

716 649

622

530 357 201

10/20 11/20 12/20

1/21

2/21

MONTHS OF INVENTORY A healthy balanced market is between 4 and 6 months of inventory available. At the end of 2021, we were at fewer than 1 months of inventory: an extraordinarily strong seller’s market.

3/21

5/21

6/21

7/21

8/21

9/21

10/21

11/21

12/21

MONTHS OF INVENTORY

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3 1.2

1.2 1.1

1.1 1.0 0.9

0.8 0.7

0.7

10/20 11/20 12/20 1/21 2/21 3/21 4/21 5/21 6/21 7/21 8/21 9/21 10/21 11/21 12/21

HIGHER = BUYER’S MARKET LOWER = SELLER’S MARKET We are currently in a very strong seller’s market, and buyer’s have very little leverage at the negotiation table.

MEDIAN HOME PRICES 2021 saw a clear trend of prices rising as available inventory fell.

4/21

MEDIAN SOLD PRICE

769

775

780

785

790 792

799

805

816

825

825 830

835 837 845

10/20 11/20 12/20 1/21 2/21 3/21 4/21 5/21 6/21 7/21 8/21 9/21 10/21 11/21 12/21 All figures are based on single family home sales, which include townhomes and exclude condos. Graphs were created by METROPOLIST using NWMLS data, but information was not verified or published by NWMLS. Data reflects all new and resale single-family residences sold.

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BY THE NUMBERS // SEATTLE METRO CONDOS

CONDOS Available condo inventory increased significantly in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic and prices became stagnant compared to single family home appreciation. That created a window of opportunity for condo buyers through the first half of 2021. However, condo inventory steadily dropped in the second half of the year as first time buyers got pushed into the condo market and people downsizing took advantage of the hot single family seller’s market. As months of inventory dropped, prices rose almost in a mirror image in both the single family and condo markets.

975 821

612

581

589

586

579

329

283

250

209

199

10/20 11/20 12/20

590

547

303

617

3.2

3.3

3.5

3.6

3.6

312

1/21

2/21

3/21

4/21

5/21

6/21

7/21

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.0 3.1

2.4 2.2

10/20 11/20 12/20 1/21 2/21 3/21 4/21 5/21 6/21 7/21 8/21 9/21 10/21 11/21 12/21 MEDIAN SOLD PRICE

490 489 490 490 480 473

475 475

331 265

286

257 251

166

2.6

475 475

336

222

2.8

475

530 407

356

MONTHS OF INVENTORY

3.4

557

555

478

483 482

481

8/21

9/21

10/21

11/21

12/21

WHAT ABOUT THE MARKET? For 2022 we suspect that rising prices, combined with rising interest rates, will further cause affordability issues and dampen buyer enthusiasm somewhat.

The underlying issue of low inventory will not change though, and so the seller’s market continues.

BOTTOM LINE Denise Lones, a well respected real estate industry expert said this, “There is no such thing as a crash in a market where there is a deficiency in inventory.” The seller’s market is likely to persist through 2022, though some cooling of price gains seems inevitable.

10/20 11/20 12/20 1/21 2/21 3/21 4/21 5/21 6/21 7/21 8/21 9/21 10/21 11/21 12/21 All figures are based on condo sales. Graphs were created by METROPOLIST using NWMLS data, but information was not verified or published by NWMLS. Data reflects all new and resale condos sold.

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NEIGHBORHOOD // YEAR OVER YEAR COMPARISON

LEGEND | SEATTLE METRO AREA AS DEFINED BY THE NWMLS Ballard | Greenlake | Wallingford (NWMLS 705) Ravenna | U District | Laurelhurst (NWMLS 710) Queen Anne | Magnolia (NWMLS 700) Capitol Hill | Central District | Madison Park (NWMLS 390) Downtown/Belltown(NWMLS 701)

BUT LET’S TALK ABOUT YOU! Not everyone wants to look at the big picture. Maybe you already own your home and want to get a pulse on your value and how it has changed. Or maybe you are curious what it would look like if you wanted to sell.

These areas are still pretty wide.

If you really want to get down to the detail of your home or your target area this is a great time to reach out to your broker.

They can pull data for your exact location or desired neighborhood, focused on the micro locale, to help you learn exactly what your home is worth and what your competition might look like.

Mt. Baker | Leschi | Madrona (NWMLS 380)

QUEEN ANNE (NWMLS 700) MONTHS OF INVENTORY 2019 2020 2021

MEDIAN SOLD PRICE

Within these pages you will find all the same information provided in the Seattle Metro section.

But here you will see it broken out into color coded Seattle neighborhood areas.

West Seattle (NWMLS 140)

1.2M

2.1 | 3.3 2.0 | 2.9 0.9 | 2.1

AVG DAYS ON MARKET 2019 37 | 41 2020 23 | 41 2021 22 | 38

JAN 2020 - DEC 2021

900k 600k 300k

2020

2021 single family homes | condos

MAGNOLIA (NWMLS 700) MONTHS OF INVENTORY 2019 2020 2021

MEDIAN SOLD PRICE

It’s also possible you are a buyer looking to focus in on a particular neighborhood and can use this information to help choose your target area, or strategize within an already identified perfect fit.

Beacon Hill | Rainier Valley (NWMLS 385)

1.2M

1.9 | 2.5 1.2 | 1.9 0.6 | 1.6

AVG DAYS ON MARKET 2019 31 | 68 2020 22 | 40 2021 17 | 30

JAN 2020 - DEC 2021

975k 750k 625k 300k 2020

2021 single family homes | condos

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NEIGHBORHOOD // YEAR OVER YEAR COMPARISON

BALLARD (NWMLS 705) MONTHS OF INVENTORY 2019 2020

AVG DAYS ON MARKET 2019 23 | 44 2020 17 | 31 2021 11 | 35

2020 2021

JAN 2020 - DEC 2021 800k 600k 400k 2020

MONTHS OF INVENTORY 2019

MEDIAN SOLD PRICE

MEDIAN SOLD PRICE

2021

1.3 | 3.2 0.6 | 2.2 0.5 | 1.2

RAVENNA (NWMLS 710)

2021

1.1M

1.0 0.8 0.3

AVG DAYS ON MARKET 2019 23 2020 13 2021 11

JAN 2020 - DEC 2021

1.0M 900k 800k

2020

2021

single family homes | condos

single family homes | condos

GREENLAKE (NWMLS 705) MONTHS OF INVENTORY 2020

MEDIAN SOLD PRICE

2021

1.0M

1.6 | 1.8 1.0 | 1.7 0.6 | 1.2

AVG DAYS ON MARKET 2019 22 | 43 2020 17 | 22 2021 13 | 39

JAN 2020 - DEC 2021

600k 2020

2020 2021

800k

400k

MONTHS OF INVENTORY 2019

MEDIAN SOLD PRICE

2019

U DISTRICT (NWMLS 710)

2021

900k

1.8 | 3.2 3.3 | 3.5 1.2 | 3.5

JAN 2020 - DEC 2021

700k 500k 300k

2020

single family homes | condos

MONTHS OF INVENTORY

MEDIAN SOLD PRICE

2021

1.0M

MONTHS OF INVENTORY 2019 2020 2021

JAN 2020 - DEC 2021

800k 600k 400k

LAURELHURST (NWMLS 710)

MEDIAN SOLD PRICE

2020

1.7 | 3.2 1.3 | 3.5 0.7 | 2.4

AVG DAYS ON MARKET 2019 25 | 36 2020 19 | 33 2021 12 | 47

2020

2021 single family homes | condos

2021 single family homes | condos

WALLINGFORD (NWMLS 705) 2019

AVG DAYS ON MARKET 2019 27 | 41 2020 35 | 46 2021 31 | 57

1.75M

2.3 1.5 0.4

AVG DAYS ON MARKET 2019 32 2020 25 2021 18

JAN 2020 - DEC 2021

1.5M 1.25M 1.0M

2020

2021 single family homes | condos

All figures are based on single family home sales (including townhomes) and condo sales. Graphs were created by METROPOLIST using NWMLS data, but information was not verified or published by NWMLS. Data reflects all new and resale single-family residences sold. Missing dots and lines on graphs indicate no sales occurred in that month.

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NEIGHBORHOOD // YEAR OVER YEAR COMPARISON

BEACON HILL (NWMLS 385) MONTHS OF INVENTORY 2019 2020 2021

2.3 | 1.8 1.5 | 4.5 0.8 | 3.0

AVG DAYS ON MARKET 2019 33 | 23 2020 27 | 30 2021 22 | 21

DOWNTOWN/BELLTOWN (NWMLS 701) MONTHS OF INVENTORY 2019 2020 2021

JAN 2020 - DEC 2021 MEDIAN SOLD PRICE

MEDIAN SOLD PRICE

JAN 2020 - DEC 2021 800k 600k 400k 2020

4.8 6.4 3.5

700k 650k 600k 2020

2021 single family homes | condos

MONTHS OF INVENTORY

2020 2021

AVG DAYS ON MARKET 2019 32 2020 23 2021 23

2.2 1.9 1.0

WEST SEATTLE (NWMLS 140) MONTHS OF INVENTORY 2019 2020 2021

1.6 | 1.6 1.3 | 3.0 0.6 | 1.8

700k 600k 500k 2021

800k 600k 400k 2020

single family homes | condos

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TO DOWNLOAD NEIGHBORHOOD PAGES AND MORE!

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AVG DAYS ON MARKET 2019 31 | 38 2020 23 | 34 2021 16 | 36

JAN 2020 - DEC 2021 MEDIAN SOLD PRICE

MEDIAN SOLD PRICE

JAN 2020 - DEC 2021

2020

2021 single family homes | condos

RAINIER VALLEY (NWMLS 385) 2019

AVG DAYS ON MARKET 2019 58 2020 43 2021 46

2021 single family homes | condos

NEIGHBORHOOD // YEAR OVER YEAR COMPARISON

MT. BAKER (NWMLS 380) MONTHS OF INVENTORY 2019 2020 2021

2.4 1.3 1.0

CAPITOL HILL (NWMLS 390)

AVG DAYS ON MARKET 2019 32 2020 25 2021 16

MONTHS OF INVENTORY 2019 2020 2021

JAN 2020 - DEC 2021 MEDIAN SOLD PRICE

MEDIAN SOLD PRICE

JAN 2020 - DEC 2021

2.2 | 2.3 2.3 | 2.5 1.6 | 2.2

900k 800k 700k 2020

1.0M 800k 600k 400k 2020

2021 single family homes | condos

MONTHS OF INVENTORY

MEDIAN SOLD PRICE

2021

1.2M

CENTRAL DISTRICT (NWMLS 390)

AVG DAYS ON MARKET 2019 45 | 51 2020 31 | 31 2021 23 | 26

MONTHS OF INVENTORY 2019 2020 2021

JAN 2020 - DEC 2021

1.0M 800k 600k 400k 2020

1.4 | 1.9 1.7 | 1.9 0.9 | 1.6

1.0M 800k 600k 400k 2020

2021 single family homes | condos

MONTHS OF INVENTORY 2020 2021

3.2 1.3 0.9

MADISON PARK (NWMLS 390)

AVG DAYS ON MARKET 2019 36 2020 28 2021 14

MONTHS OF INVENTORY 2019 2020 2021

MEDIAN SOLD PRICE

MEDIAN SOLD PRICE

JAN 2020 - DEC 2021 1.3M 1.2M 1.1M 1.0M 900k

2020

2021 single family homes | condos

MADRONA (NWMLS 380) 2019

AVG DAYS ON MARKET 2019 23 | 36 2020 19 | 32 2021 21 | 23

JAN 2020 - DEC 2021 MEDIAN SOLD PRICE

2020

2.0 | 1.6 2.2 | 2.3 0.7 | 0.9

2021 single family homes | condos

LESCHI (NWMLS 380) 2019

AVG DAYS ON MARKET 2019 31 | 30 2020 22 | 32 2021 27 | 44

2021 single family homes | condos

2.5M

3.7 | 1.4 2.8 | 3.6 1.0 | 1.8

AVG DAYS ON MARKET 2019 41 | 35 2020 30 | 34 2021 30 | 38

JAN 2020 - DEC 2021

2.0M 1.5M 1.0M 500k 2020

2021 single family homes | condos

All figures are based on single family home sales (including townhomes) and condo sales. Graphs were created by METROPOLIST using NWMLS data, but information was not verified or published by NWMLS. Data reflects all new and resale single-family residences sold. Missing dots and lines on graphs indicate no sales occurred in that month.

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