Opinion A4 Monday, December 7, 2020 — DAILY REPUBLIC
This week’s question:
What type of disaster alert system should Solano County use? Go to www.dailyrepublic.com/pulsepoll to vote.
the right stuff
We need sensible, compassionate Covid strategy
I
am triple board certified in hematology, oncology and internal medicine with significant post-doctoral training in public health and epidemiology (experts that deal with incidence, distribution and control of disease). I am also a professor of medicine emeritus. Three epidemiologists and public health experts, Dr. Sunetra Gupta of Oxford University, Dr. Martin Kulldorff of Harvard University and Dr. Jay Bhattacharya of Stanford University, met and published an analysis of Covid-19 policy called the Great Barrington Declaration. Forty-three thousand medical doctors and public health scientists have endorsed this declaration, making it central to the debate. Let’s see how deadly Covid-19 is, who is at risk, and comment on the lockdowns and Kevin P. Ryan school closure policies with recommendations for policy shift now that we know more. We must distinguish Covid-19 cases from infections. What we ideally need to test for are antibodies as they stay around longer after an infection. Lack of in-depth knowledge of the infections’ epidemiology drove an aggressive public policy. Fear and confusion have been created. The fatality rate, when considering all infections and deaths from Covid-19, is not 3% but closer to 0.2% to 0.3%. Early adequate testing of large numbers couldn’t be done. Infection extent was unknown. This has improved. The higher rate of 3% in March sowed fear and panic. Case fatality is not just a function of how deadly a virus is. It depends on who gets infected and the quality of the health care systems. Initial management was difficult and treating in the dark. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo sent droves to nursing homes, allowing more to get infected and die. Covid-19 is not equally dangerous for all. There is a thousand-fold difference in people over 70 (fatality rate of 4%) and children and young adults for whom the disease is less deadly than the seasonal flu by a factor of two, at 2 in 1,000. Lockdowns have never before been tried for primary disease control and they have dire economic consequences. To be sure, my argument is a clinical one, not to dwell, per se, on economic consequences. Initial rationale was to slow the disease and not overwhelm health care. The U.N. estimates 130 million will starve. Children will not get immunizations such as polio, diphtheria and pertussis (whooping cough). Large numbers are delaying cancer screening and treatment. This is not good. Diabetes care may spiral out of control. Worsening cardiovascular outcomes will occur. Mental health problems are shocking; 1 in 4 young adults have seriously considered suicide. Domestic violence and discord have risen (30% increase in Solano County). Young, low-risk folks bear the burden. Keeping children out of school has long-term consequences. Performance data of our distance learning children are abysmal and doing so is literally a grave injustice. As immunity builds in the public, the risk falls; all populations will reach herd immunity, the point at which the rate of new infections is stable. This will be assisted by a vaccine. We must have focused protection and interventions allowing those at lower risks to build up immunity through natural infection. Nursing homes should use immune staff and not rotate care. Simple hygiene, a mask and staying home when slightly sick will reduce the herd immunity threshold. Schools and universities should be open for in-person teaching and vital socialization. Extracurricular activities such as sports should be resumed. Young, low-risk adults should work normally, not at home. Restaurants and other businesses should open. Arts, music, sports and other cultural activities should resume. Society at whole, with the aid of vaccines, will enjoy the protection attributed/contributed by those who have built up herd immunity. Herd immunity is not a strategy but a biological fact that applies to most infectious diseases. Coupled with a vaccine, high herd immunity is the endgame for this disease. Finally, there has been political pushback against these policies. As experience has developed this knowledge, the resistance must stop now. Kevin P. Ryan is a retired U.S. Air Force colonel and professor of medicine, author and musician. Reach him at Ryan_k@comcast.net.
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On the Left
We’re fed sophistry for breakfast, lunch, dinner
T
blowers are saying.” I shouted hree S’s are running to the screen, “No, those are through my head today: safe, seditwo of the world’s greatest newspapers!” But Hannity tion and sophistry. continued on as if he First, the United States of hadn’t heard me. America remains a demo“We exposed the whole cratic republic. The very real Russia-collusion hoax. We got threat of an American-style it right – they didn’t. We single-party, charismatic dictatorship has Jack Batson exposed Joe Biden’s financial corruption. We rebuked the passed. We’re safe. Ukraine impeachment hoax. They Second, sedition against a norgot that wrong, too.” See how sedimally functioning democracy continues full bore. The right-wing tious and depressing this is? propaganda megaphones still blast And then the sophistry. After out the alternate truth – the elecshowing Kamala Harris saying, “I want to thank the whistleblower (in tion was stolen. This is being compared to the Nazi the Ukraine phone call) for his Big Lie that was foundational to Adolf courage,” Hannity triumphantly announced, “That means all the Hitler’s eventual rise – that the whistleblowers who testified today German army was never defeated in 1918 but was betrayed by liberals and are all courageous.” No. This is the “false equivalency” Jews. Wrong, wrong, wrong. It had error. A whistleblower is a federal been shattered. But that lie was the employee who has “credible” evibasis for the resentment felt by 40% of the Germans who finally boosted dence of wrongdoing. Hannity’s Hitler into power. people are simply “witnesses” or Then last Tuesday evening I “complainants” whose evidence is tortured myself for an hour watching probably not credible in a courtroom. Sean Hannity’s sophistry. Sophistry? “The media mob could care less Surely you recall that high school about the affidavits made under vocabulary word. penalty of perjury. Real election Long ago in ancient Greece, integrity means nothing to them! Socrates was searching for new Now the same conspiracy theorists meanings of life and religion. There who led to us pushing the Russia-colarose a school of “Sophists” who lusion hoax, the Ukrainian hoax are argued against him that used flawed going to lecture us for the good of arguments won because of emotional democracy. We’re not going to take appeal or deceptive logic. Crudely advice from such hypocrites and put, they would win at any cost, sanctimonious jackasses like them!” hence, “sophistry.” On display are the techniques of That’s what poured forth from my repetition of lies and emotional TV last Tuesday. appeal. First, Hannity claimed that “the “Tonight our investigation leads Washington Compost, the New York us to Michigan where multiple Toilet Times, and the media mob is allegations of election abuse were ignoring what witnesses and whistle- brought forward by eyewitnesses –
whistleblowers.” And so the parade began. Some of these people probably spoke truthfully but didn’t understand standard procedures. One woman breathlessly told Hannity, “Republican poll watchers were ejected from the room repeatedly and the room erupted in thunderous applause each time.” I called our county for comment. John Gardner, the assistant registrar of voters, a 19-year veteran of election work in Colorado and now here in Solano County, spoke to me. He emphasized that every state has different rules so it’s difficult to know what happened in Wisconsin. In Solano County we have two ballot counters who can be observed by partisan “poll watchers.” I think that it is probable that those Wisconsin folks, upset by the unfolding loss of their idol, got disruptive and were ejected. Hannity isn’t interested in truth. He’s a demagogue. He and his likes have convinced 40% of the population that the election was stolen by massive fraud. He doesn’t care that on that very day Attorney General William Barr had declared that – wrong, wrong, wrong – there was no massive fraud. Further, more than 32 civil lawsuits have been turned down by judges, some of whom are Trump appointees. Trump’s appeals to fund these nuisance lawsuits have garnered him and the RNC some $200 million from the 40%. Yes, our democracy is safe . . . for now. Jack Batson is a former member of the Fairfield City Council. Reach him by email at jsbatson@prodigy.net.
cALmatters Commentary
Who will have priority for Covid-19 vaccine?
T
A new political free-for-all here’s nothing new about political jousting over is just beginning and this shares of a limited but time it is all-or-nothing, valuable resource. potentially with life-or-death For instance, Californians consequences – who gets the have been squabbling for very limited initial supply of decades over divvying up vaccine against the potenwater supplies among tially deadly agricultural interests, novel coronavirus. municipal consumers and the Gov. Gavin Newsom said Dan Walters natural environment. The last week that he expects conflict never goes away but California to receive an initial increases in intensity every time the allocation of 327,000 doses of vaccine state experiences one of its periodic in mid-December. His administration droughts – and this so-far dry wants to prioritize vaccinations of autumn may be a harbinger of health care workers who are most another such dry spell. in danger of being infected with The annual business of writing a –––the virus. new state budget is always an Few would argue with that intent, exercise in political rationing. Even but the initial vaccine supply doesn’t in times of prosperity, when the state come close to covering everyone who treasury is awash in tax money, falls into that general category. there’s never quite enough to satisfy California has more than 2 million all of the demands and expressions of health care workers, and even within urgent need. More for schools, more that group, there’s a certain level for health care, more for colleges, of competition. more for child care or Organizations representing more for prisons? local-term care facilities, otherwise Those who hire the most and best known as nursing homes, are lobbyists, shower legislators with pressing for first-tier priority, campaign contributions and wage contending that their elderly clients lavish media campaigns tend over are being disproportionately infected, time to fare the best when Capitol often with fatal consequences. politicians decide who gets how However, another argument is much cash. being made for nurses, doctors and The allocations of water and others who are directly caring for money obviously have serious Covid-19 victims in hospitals. impacts on the contending parties, Expanding vaccinations beyond but usually they are not all-or-nothhealth care workers will be even ing situations. Even the losers more daunting because no one knows generally wind up with something, when and how many additional doses even if they see it as not enough. of vaccine will be coming, other than
sometime next year. After the implicit demand from health care workers is met, who’s next? Two state legislators are pressing for teachers to be placed near the top of the prioritization list, citing the sharp decline in educational achievement while students are confined at home and the urgent need for resuming classroom instruction. Assembly members Jordan Cunningham, a San Luis Obispo Republican, and Patrick O’Donnell, a Long Beach Democrat, said in a letter to state health officials, “Interim reports from across the state show increasing rates of failure among students, especially those in lower-income neighborhoods. . . . Our state’s children cannot afford to wait.” A recent national study estimated that lower levels of education among students forced to attend classes via the internet could result in shorter life spans. Several recent articles, including one in CalMatters.org, have detailed how absenteeism has increased and learning has decreased, especially among poor students. This is heavy-duty stuff. Deciding who gets – and who doesn’t get – the vaccine in the earliest stages of the vaccination effort could be deciding who lives and who dies. CALmatters is a public interest journalism venture committed to explaining how California’s state Capitol works and why it matters. For more columns by Dan Walters, go to calmatters.org/commentary.
