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the right stuff We need sensible, compassionate Covid strategy

Iam triple board certified in hematology, oncology and internal medicine with significant post-doctoral training in public health and epidemiology (experts that deal with incidence, distribution and control of disease). I am also a professor of medicine emeritus.

Three epidemiologists and public health experts, Dr. Sunetra Gupta of Oxford University, Dr. Martin Kulldorff of Harvard University and Dr. Jay Bhattacharya of Stanford University, met and published an analysis of Covid-19 policy called the Great Barrington Declaration. Forty-three thousand medical doctors and public health scientists have endorsed this declaration, making it central to the debate. Let’s see how deadly Covid-19 is, who is at risk, and comment on the lockdowns and

Kevin P. Ryan school closure policies with recommendations for policy shift now that we know more.

We must distinguish Covid-19 cases from infections. What we ideally need to test for are antibodies as they stay around longer after an infection. Lack of in-depth knowledge of the infections’ epidemiology drove an aggressive public policy. Fear and confusion have been created. The fatality rate, when considering all infections and deaths from Covid-19, is not 3% but closer to 0.2% to 0.3%. Early adequate testing of large numbers couldn’t be done. Infection extent was unknown. This has improved.

The higher rate of 3% in March sowed fear and panic.

Case fatality is not just a function of how deadly a virus is. It depends on who gets infected and the quality of the health care systems. Initial management was difficult and treating in the dark. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo sent droves to nursing homes, allowing more to get infected and die.

Covid-19 is not equally dangerous for all. There is a thousand-fold difference in people over 70 (fatality rate of 4%) and children and young adults for whom the disease is less deadly than the seasonal flu by a factor of two, at 2 in 1,000.

Lockdowns have never before been tried for primary disease control and they have dire economic consequences. To be sure, my argument is a clinical one, not to dwell, per se, on economic consequences. Initial rationale was to slow the disease and not overwhelm health care. The U.N. estimates 130 million will starve. Children will not get immunizations such as polio, diphtheria and pertussis (whooping cough). Large numbers are delaying cancer screening and treatment.

This is not good.

Diabetes care may spiral out of control. Worsening cardiovascular outcomes will occur. Mental health problems are shocking; 1 in 4 young adults have seriously considered suicide. Domestic violence and discord have risen (30% increase in Solano County).

Young, low-risk folks bear the burden. Keeping children out of school has long-term consequences. Performance data of our distance learning children are abysmal and doing so is literally a grave injustice.

As immunity builds in the public, the risk falls; all populations will reach herd immunity, the point at which the rate of new infections is stable. This will be assisted by a vaccine. We must have focused protection and interventions allowing those at lower risks to build up immunity through natural infection.

Nursing homes should use immune staff and not rotate care. Simple hygiene, a mask and staying home when slightly sick will reduce the herd immunity threshold. Schools and universities should be open for in-person teaching and vital socialization. Extracurricular activities such as sports should be resumed. Young, low-risk adults should work normally, not at home. Restaurants and other businesses should open. Arts, music, sports and other cultural activities should resume. Society at whole, with the aid of vaccines, will enjoy the protection attributed/contributed by those who have built up herd immunity.

Herd immunity is not a strategy but a biological fact that applies to most infectious diseases. Coupled with a vaccine, high herd immunity is the endgame for this disease.

Finally, there has been political pushback against these policies. As experience has developed this knowledge, the resistance must stop now.

Kevin P. Ryan is a retired U.S. Air Force colonel and professor of medicine, author and musician. Reach him at Ryan_k@comcast.net.

DAILY REPUBLIC

A McNaughton Newspaper Locally Owned and Operated Serving Solano County since 1855 • Foy McNaughton President / CEO / Publisher On the Left We’re fed sophistry for breakfast, lunch, dinner

Three S’s are running blowers are saying.” I shouted whistleblowers.” And so the parade through my head to the screen, “No, those are began. Some of these people probably today: safe, sedi- two of the world’s greatest spoke truthfully but didn’t undertion and sophistry. newspapers!” But Hannity stand standard procedures. One

First, the United States of continued on as if he woman breathlessly told Hannity, America remains a demo- hadn’t heard me. “Republican poll watchers were cratic republic. The very real “We exposed the whole ejected from the room repeatedly threat of an American-style Russia-collusion hoax. We got and the room erupted in thunderous single-party, charismatic it right – they didn’t. We applause each time.” dictatorship has passed. We’re safe. Jack Batson exposed Joe Biden’s financial corruption. We rebuked the I called our county for comment. John Gardner, the assistant registrar Second, sedition against a normally functioning democracy continues full bore. The right-wing propaganda megaphones still blast out the alternate truth – the election was stolen. This is being compared to the Nazi Big Lie that was foundational to Adolf Hitler’s eventual rise – that the German army was never defeated in 1918 but was betrayed by liberals and Jews. Wrong, wrong, wrong. It had been shattered. But that lie was the basis for the resentment felt by 40% of the Germans who finally boosted Hitler into power. Then last Tuesday evening I tortured myself for an hour watching Ukraine impeachment hoax. They got that wrong, too.” See how seditious and depressing this is? And then the sophistry. After showing Kamala Harris saying, “I want to thank the whistleblower (in the Ukraine phone call) for his courage,” Hannity triumphantly announced, “That means all the whistleblowers who testified today are all courageous.” No. This is the “false equivalency” error. A whistleblower is a federal employee who has “credible” evidence of wrongdoing. Hannity’s people are simply “witnesses” or “complainants” whose evidence is probably not credible in a courtroom. of voters, a 19-year veteran of election work in Colorado and now here in Solano County, spoke to me. He emphasized that every state has different rules so it’s difficult to know what happened in Wisconsin. In Solano County we have two ballot counters who can be observed by partisan “poll watchers.” I think that it is probable that those Wisconsin folks, upset by the unfolding loss of their idol, got disruptive and were ejected. Hannity isn’t interested in truth. He’s a demagogue. He and his likes have convinced 40% of the population that the election was stolen by Sean Hannity’s sophistry. Sophistry? “The media mob could care less massive fraud. He doesn’t care that Surely you recall that high school about the affidavits made under on that very day Attorney General vocabulary word. penalty of perjury. Real election William Barr had declared that –

Long ago in ancient Greece, integrity means nothing to them! wrong, wrong, wrong – there was no Socrates was searching for new Now the same conspiracy theorists massive fraud. meanings of life and religion. There who led to us pushing the Russia-col- Further, more than 32 civil arose a school of “Sophists” who lusion hoax, the Ukrainian hoax are lawsuits have been turned down by argued against him that used flawed going to lecture us for the good of judges, some of whom are arguments won because of emotional democracy. We’re not going to take Trump appointees. appeal or deceptive logic. Crudely advice from such hypocrites and Trump’s appeals to fund these put, they would win at any cost, sanctimonious jackasses like them!” nuisance lawsuits have garnered hence, “sophistry.” On display are the techniques of him and the RNC some $200 million

That’s what poured forth from my repetition of lies and emotional from the 40%. Yes, our democracy is TV last Tuesday. appeal. safe . . . for now.

First, Hannity claimed that “the “Tonight our investigation leads Washington Compost, the New York us to Michigan where multiple Jack Batson is a former member of Toilet Times, and the media mob is allegations of election abuse were the Fairfield City Council. Reach him ignoring what witnesses and whistle- brought forward by eyewitnesses – by email at jsbatson@prodigy.net.

cALmAtters cOmmentAry

Who will have priority for Covid-19 vaccine?

There’s nothing new about A new political free-for-all sometime next year. After the political jousting over is just beginning and this implicit demand from health care shares of a limited but time it is all-or-nothing, workers is met, who’s next? valuable resource. potentially with life-or-death Two state legislators are pressing

For instance, Californians consequences – who gets the for teachers to be placed near the top have been squabbling for very limited initial supply of of the prioritization list, citing the decades over divvying up vaccine against the poten- sharp decline in educational achievewater supplies among tially deadly ment while students are confined at agricultural interests, novel coronavirus. home and the urgent need for municipal consumers and the natural environment. The Dan Walters Gov. Gavin Newsom said last week that he expects resuming classroom instruction. Assembly members Jordan conflict never goes away but California to receive an initial Cunningham, a San Luis Obispo increases in intensity every time the allocation of 327,000 doses of vaccine Republican, and Patrick O’Donnell, a state experiences one of its periodic droughts – and this so-far dry autumn may be a harbinger of another such dry spell. The annual business of writing a new state budget is always an exercise in political rationing. Even in times of prosperity, when the state treasury is awash in tax money, there’s never quite enough to satisfy all of the demands and expressions of urgent need. More for schools, more for health care, more for colleges, more for child care or more for prisons? Those who hire the most and best lobbyists, shower legislators with campaign contributions and wage lavish media campaigns tend over time to fare the best when Capitol politicians decide who gets how much cash. in mid-December. His administration wants to prioritize vaccinations of health care workers who are most in danger of being infected with –––the virus. Few would argue with that intent, but the initial vaccine supply doesn’t come close to covering everyone who falls into that general category. California has more than 2 million health care workers, and even within that group, there’s a certain level of competition. Organizations representing local-term care facilities, otherwise known as nursing homes, are pressing for first-tier priority, contending that their elderly clients are being disproportionately infected, often with fatal consequences. However, another argument is being made for nurses, doctors and Long Beach Democrat, said in a letter to state health officials, “Interim reports from across the state show increasing rates of failure among students, especially those in lower-income neighborhoods. . . . Our state’s children cannot afford to wait.” A recent national study estimated that lower levels of education among students forced to attend classes via the internet could result in shorter life spans. Several recent articles, including one in CalMatters.org, have detailed how absenteeism has increased and learning has decreased, especially among poor students. This is heavy-duty stuff. Deciding who gets – and who doesn’t get – the vaccine in the earliest stages of the vaccination effort could be deciding who lives and who dies.

The allocations of water and others who are directly caring for money obviously have serious Covid-19 victims in hospitals. CALmatters is a public interest impacts on the contending parties, Expanding vaccinations beyond journalism venture committed to but usually they are not all-or-noth- health care workers will be even explaining how California’s state ing situations. Even the losers more daunting because no one knows Capitol works and why it matters. generally wind up with something, when and how many additional doses For more columns by Dan Walters, even if they see it as not enough. of vaccine will be coming, other than go to calmatters.org/commentary.