The Secrets of Investing in Rare Collectible Watches
The Secrets of Investing in Rare Collectible Watches
Good timing... it’s vital for watches, and especially when you’re investing in them.
Luckily, you’re reading this at the perfect time. Because no other area of collecting is as exciting and ripe for investment right now as rare collectible watches. This is a young and growing market. One with huge potential.
Before the 1980s, nobody collected watches. Open a Sotheby’s watch catalogue up until the 1990s and it was full of pocket watches and carriage clocks. Watches were an afterthought. This means values for watches have much catching up to do. They are far behind more established sectors such as classic cars or art. That’s huge scope for growth.
So while I’m hugely encouraged by the recent growth in value in this sector, I believe it’s only the start. The experts at Deloitte agree. A recent report predicts the rare collectible watch market will grow by 75% between now and 2030, fuelled by Millennial and Gen Z consumers.
You’re about to discover the closely-guarded secrets of rare collectible watch investment, including:
> The top 5 brands to invest in
> The 4 questions you should ask yourself before buying
> The 5 keys to investing in watches for profit - that only insiders know
Enjoy,
Paul
Fraser Chairman | Paul Fraser Collectibles
Paul Fraser | Chairman
Why invest in rare collectible watches?
• A relatively new market with long-term potential
• Huge interest from emerging economies
• Rare collectible watches are produced in low quantities; many are unique
• Strong recent historical prices
Historical prices
The value of rare collectible watches, such as Rolex and Patek Philippe, rose by 5% in 2023, according to the Knight Frank Luxury Investment Index, with the sector up 147% in value over the past 10 years.
These numbers are backed by figures from the ChronoPulse Watch Index. Their analysis of the rare collectible watch market, prices of 14 watch brands (140 individual models) reveals growth of 32.8% between May 2019 and May 2024.
Passion investment 10 year price change
Source:
5 year growth from May 2019
Figures courtesy ChronoPulse Watch Index.
Analysis: The figures above reveal the importance of choosing the right brands to invest in. Over the past five years Audemars Piguet, Patek Philippe, Vacheron Constantin, Rolex, Cartier, Jaeger-LeCoultre and Omega have led the way. These are the blue chips in the sector, and while past performance offers no guarantees, these numbers provide a good indication of where to focus attention.
Future growth
The rare collectible watch market is projected to experience significant growth by 2030, with an estimated market size reaching approximately $62.3 billion from $45 billion today. This represents compound annual growth of 5.0% per annum from 2023 to 2030, according to research by independent analysts Grand View.
These findings are replicated by projections from Introspective Market Research, which suggests the market will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 5.3% from 2023 to 2032.
Four key factors will drive this growth
1 Growing brand awareness and exclusivity
There is a growing consumer demand for rare collectible watches as status symbols, influenced by brand awareness and the desire for exclusive products.
2 E-commerce growth
The online watch retail sector is expected to grow at a fast rate, driven by the convenience of online shopping and better transparency of pricing.
3 Rising demand among women
The rare collectible watch market is seeing a notable increase in demand from women, contributing significantly to market expansion.
4 Regional changes
The Asia Pacific region is anticipated to dominate the market, largely due to economic growth in countries like China, India, and Japan, which is leading to higher disposable incomes and greater luxury spending.
The top
Established in London in 1905, Rolex has a reputation and pedigree like no other watchmaker. It’s a reputation that has been well earned.
The company maintains the same drive for perfection today as it did when it was established over 100 years ago.
• Rolex makes every watch from the finest precious metals and materials
• They tell time incredibly accurately for a mechanical watch
• The movements are all made by hand by skilled artisans
Which is why, if you’re investing in watches, Rolex is the common place people start owing to its global brand recognition.
Rolex is synonymous with quality. Craftsmanship. The best. There’s a reason Edmund Hillary wore a Rolex when he conquered Everest in 1953.
Investment-grade Rolex
Rolex GMT-Master
Rolex launched the original GMT-Master in 1954 in collaboration with Pan American World Airways. The airline wanted a watch to enable their crew to easily track local and GMT time. Rolex’s brilliant answer was the rotating 24-hour bezel. A legend was born.
In the early 1980s Rolex managed to improve upon the original with the GMT-Master II. It introduced an extra, independent hour hand that enabled the user to now read the time in three time zones instantaneously.
Rolex Sky-Dweller
Rolex’s first completely new watch since 1992. Launched in 2012, with the now iconic blue dial released in 2017. Rolex has created its most complicated watch ever in the Sky-Dweller. Rolex’s patented bezel system is the standout feature. It enables you to adjust several functions easily with a single crown.
Designed for the world traveller, the GMT function displays a second time zone on a 24-hour wheel. The annual calendar automatically tells you the date and month. Only February requires manual assistance. Crafted with a robust stainless steel case and iconic fluted bezel.
Investment-grade Rolex
Rolex Submariner
The Rolex Submariner is the classic dive watch, introduced by Rolex in 1953. It was the first watch rated to be water resistant to 100 metres. Rolex created the Submariner with divers in mind and included a rotatable bezel to track immersion times. Throughout the 1950s and 60s Rolex continued to improve the Submariner’s water resistance up to 200 metres. Modern Submariners now boast water resistance up to 300 metres.
The Submariner has enjoyed 70 years of continuous production. It is the most instantly recognisable dive watch ever made, and is among Rolex’s flagship offerings. Waiting lists for new examples can now stretch out for years. So collectors are increasingly turning to the rare collectible watch market - pushing prices ever higher.
Rolex Daytona
In 1963, Rolex unveiled an extraordinary watch designed for race car drivers: the Rolex Cosmograph. It featured a tachometre around the bezel for measuring speed, and three miniature timing dials.
Two years later Rolex gave it the name “Cosmograph Daytona”, when Rolex became the official timekeeper for the Daytona NASCAR race.
The watch remained relatively low key until Rolex unveiled the first automatic Daytona in 1988. Following its release, sales surged, ensuring its status as the coveted series it is today. The watch gained further prestige in 2017 when a vintage model, owned by actor Paul Newman, achieved a watch record $17.8 million at auction.
Daytonas are now famous for being almost impossible to buy from Rolex authorised dealers worldwide. This is because they have demand of a massive multiple, to low quantities produced.
If you’re investing in watches - you must think of Patek Philippe.
Among rare watch collecting connoisseurs, Patek Philippe has no equal. That’s due to the fact Patek creates and finishes each watch entirely by hand, to the highest of standards. They are highly complex timepieces. Only skilled and experienced watchmakers can make them.
The demand for Patek Philippes has soared in recent years. Yet Patek continues to produce its models in limited numbers. It crafts just 60,000 watches a year. It’s thought less than 1 million Pateks have ever been made. Waiting lists for new examples can now be years long. Collectors are increasingly being forced to the rare collectible watch market.
Around 80 of the top 100 most valuable watches to appear at auction have been Patek Philippes. It produced its first watch in 1868.
In an interview, Ed Sheeran discussed buying watches to signify and remember special moments in his life. For his first ever Grammy nomination, he purchased a Patek Phillippe 5004.
Investment-grade Patek Philippe
Patek Philippe Nautilus
Although the Complications and Grand Complications are wonderful lines, the Nautilus is a current favourite with collectors. It was launched in 1976 as a usable, sports/professional watch that could command a luxury price and be worn anywhere.
The great Gérald Genta designed the first Nautilus, now nicknamed the Jumbo, for reasons that are apparent when you first encounter one. The range has grown since 1976, and branched off to the Aquanaut line too. The Nautilus 5711/1A is a standout of modern times.
A Patek Philippe Nautilus Ref. 5711/1A-018 sold for $6.5 million in 2021. Less stellar prices can be found, but you should think about paying 10s of thousands on the rare collectible watch market.
Investment-grade Patek Philippe
Patek Philippe Aquanaut 5167A-001
The now iconic Aquanaut family began in 1997 with the 5060A, which was soon regarded as the younger sibling of the then twenty one year old Nautilus.
The young and modern distinctive dimensions of the Aquanaut perfectly encapsulated the mood at the end of the 1990s with the statement grenade patterned dial and “tropical” rubber strap attracting attention. Fast forward to 2007, and the tenth anniversary saw the collection updated, and the 5167A-001 appear as we know it today.
A statement 40.8mm stainless steel case has been expertly polished and satin finished to display a strong presence on the wrist, and continue the now familiar look of this famous younger sibling.
Housing the famous self-winding mechanical calibre 324 S C the 5167A-001 has a useful maximum 45 hour power reserve. Favoured by Paul McCartney and Ringo Starr for everyday wear this model is presented on a practical and stylish black “tropical” composite texture strap ensuring it can be enjoyed from day to night, and has a water resistance of 30m.
Investment-grade Patek Philippe
Patek Philippe Calatrava 5227
For watch connoisseurs, the Calatrava belongs in the Top 10 of all time iconic watches. With all the obsession over the Nautilus and Aquanaut, it is easy to forget, perhaps, the most elegant and understated piece in Patek Philippe’s collection - the Calatrava.
First created in 1932 the Calatrava line’s sleek and elegant designs might seem generic to the untrained eye, but discerning watch lovers will see that it is one of the few dress watches out there that has everything ‘just right’. Yes, there’s the Patek Philippe name on the dial, but there’s a host of other good reasons to put this on your list of great Patek Philippe watches to invest in.
There’s the beautiful movement and the detailing, visible through the new ‘invisible’ hinged caseback which Patek Philippe apparently spent a good few years developing. Hinged case backs are a charming oddity, a vestige of pocket watch designs from yesteryear. On a Patek Philippe watch, they are about style and offer a place for personalisation on the watch as well as an opening onto an unobstructed view of that superb movement.
Omega are the name in this list that is closest to a mass consumer brand. That’s very much its present, as part of the Swatch family of companies, with whom they recently started releasing budget versions of their iconic timepieces. Don’t let that cloud your judgement though. Omega were founded, in Switzerland of course, in 1848, taking on the Omega name in 1903.
They’ve racked up a host of impressive technical achievements: the world’s first minute repeater, the best magnetic resistance to date, and the first tourbillon watch.
The company are intimately linked with top-level sport and are the official timekeeper of the Olympic Games. Their “professional” watches include the Speedmaster, one of only two watches worn on the Moon. Omega also make diving, sailing and racing watches.
Their watches hold their own in aesthetic terms too, boasting sleek, classic lines that are a match for any rare collectible watchmaker.
The record price for an Omega watch is the $1.8 million paid in Geneva in 2018 for a Ref. H6582/D96043 made in 1960. It’s a fine watch, but its owner – one Elvis Presley –and the buyer (the Omega Museum) must also be factored into the high price.
You can buy a new Omega for under £3,000, and a Speedmaster starts at around £5,000.
As is the case for all these brands, numerous factors – special editions, ownerships, shortlived issues – play into the value of watches as collector’s or investment pieces.
007’s Choice
It was undoubtedly a good marketing move to oust Rolex as the “James Bond watch”. This brings a new collecting market into play.
Investment-grade Omega
Omega Speedmaster
One look at the Speedmaster is enough to tell a watch enthusiast it’s a sport watch. The three dials on the face speak of the accuracy needed to record veryhigh-speed events to a high degree of accuracy. The Speedmaster isn’t linked to sports though. This is an astronaut’s watch.
The line was introduced in 1957 and has everything you could wish for in a super-accurate timing device. Astronaut Wally Schirra donned his Omega for a space mission in 1962. Subsequently, the company was one of several who submitted watches for testing by NASA.
They won, and the Omega Speedmaster became the NASA watch, and the Speedmaster reference 105.012 and 145.012 made it to the Moon. Speedmasters are now forever “moon watches” and they remain the brand’s flagship model and the favourite of collectors.
OFFICIAL WATCH
Investment-grade Omega
Omega Seamaster ‘No Time to Die’
Just like the normal OMEGA Seamaster Diver 300M, the ‘No Time to Die’ edition features a 42mm case (with 20mm lugs) fitted with a rotating bezel, screw-down crown, and helium escape valve.
However, instead of stainless steel, this edition is constructed from grade 2 titanium. The sapphire crystal has a more pronounced dome, to mimic vintage dive watches, and the dial and bezel insert are both made from brown ‘tropical’ aluminium and finished with coloured lume to further play into its vintage-inspired aesthetic.
The ‘No Time to Die’ edition also features a slightly different movement than its standard counterpart. Unlike the normal version, which features a date window and 6 o’clock, the latest 007-edition is a nodate model and is therefore powered by the Co-Axial Caliber 8806 (rather than the Cal. 8800).
The standard version comes with a display case-back, however, the ‘No Time to Die’ edition features a solid case-back that is finished with the proper engravings as if it were actually issued by Britain’s Ministry of Defence.
Audemars Piguet are synonymous with just one model: the Royal Oak, a 1972 watch dubbed the first luxury sports watch. That’s no reflection on the quality of the rest of their production. It’s all worthy to hold its head high in the company it keeps on this list.
But the Royal Oak was something special.
The timing of its release, during the so-called Quartz Crisis of the early 1970s when a vibrating crystal threatened the entire mechanical watch industry, added spice to its attraction.
AP, as they call themselves, were founded in 1875 in Le Brassus, Switzerland. They have forged new ground in watch making. Among their achievements are making the minute-repeater movement that Omega used in the first such watch.
Jules-Louis Audemars (1851- 1918)
Edward-Auguste Piguet (1853-1919)
Investment-grade Audemars Piguet
The Royal Oak
The chief visual features of the Royal Oak hit you quickly: the mix of hexagonal bezel and circular dial, the exposed screw heads and the integrated metal bracelet can’t be missed.
On its release it was extremely thin for a sports model, with a 7mm-thick case that had hitherto been the stuff of dress watches. It works as well as any sports model though, with a Caliber 2121 movement that’s extremely accurate and delivers shock resistance.
To the initial model have been added various complications and a couple of notable new references: the 15400:ST and the 15500:ST. The Offshore and Concept lines offer new depth to the collection. Sought-after Royal Oak models can easily make $100,000 on the rare collectible watch market. There have been 500 editions since its launch, so there’s plenty of scope to collect just this single watch.
You won’t find a better pedigree than Vacheron Constantin. The Swiss company boasts an uninterrupted history going back to 1755, making them possibly the world’s oldest continuously operating watch maker.
They pride themselves on innovation. 1992’s Calibre 1755 is the world’s thinnest repeater. In 2015, reference 57620 was released as the world’s most complicated pocket watch.
Investment-grade Vacheron Constantin
The Patrimony
It’s relatively new – released in 2004 – and extremely uncomplicated, but the Patrimony must be one of the most elegant watches ever made. The design is simple, and many of the finest examples of the line won’t even tell you the date. Its thin case and leather strap are key to its appeal.
Naturally, a huge array of special designs is available to tempt new buyers and tantalise collectors.
Vacheron Constantin makes fewer than 30,000 watches each year. The Patrimony accounts for just a small number of those. As such, it is hugely scarce.
Why choose Paul Fraser Collectibles as your investment partner?
As with all investments, expertise and knowledge are invaluable in making the correct decisions.
You know we only acquire rare collectible watches from the most reliable of sources. You know we are fastidious when it comes to provenance. You know we protect and look after you.
Our mission is simple: to help you profit from buying and selling rare collectible watches.
Expertise: Our team of experts has a combined 250 years’ experience in the rare watches and rare collectibles sector. Our founder, Paul Fraser, has been investing in collectibles since 1977.
Extraordinary items: We have the world’s largest private stockholding of investmentgrade collectibles, including the rarest, most desirable timepieces.
Our ethos: Investing in collectibles isn’t right for everyone. If it doesn’t fit with your investment goals and financial situation, we will say so.
Invest in rare collectible watches today.
Build a high-performing rare watch collection with our guidance, arrange an introductory call with one of our watch specialists, at a time convenient to you.
Call +44(0)1534 639998 or email info@paulfrasercollectibles.com
The most valuable watches ever sold
The most valuable watches ever sold
10 Patek Philippe
Titanium Ref. 5208T-010
Date of manufacture: 2017
Auction price: $6.2 million
Auction date: November 2017
Did you know? Patek Philippe rarely uses titanium, but it makes an exception here. This is the only titanium version of this reference. Patek Philippe made the timepiece specifically for the Only Watch charity auction.
9 Patek Philippe Nautilus Ref. 5711/1A-018
Date of manufacture: 2021
Auction price: $6.5 million
Auction date: December 2021
Did you know? The most recent watch in the top 10, it’s a collaboration between Patek Philippe and Tiffany. A love it or hate it timepiece. The Tiffany blue dial features the words: “Tiffany & Co.”
8 Patek Philippe
Stainless Steel Ref. 5016A-010
Date of manufacture: 2015
Auction price: $7.3 million
Auction date: November 2015
Did you know? The watch is a major rarity: a combination of tourbillon, minute repeater and perpetual calendar, with moon phase.
The most valuable watches ever sold
7
Patek Philippe
Two-Crown Worldtime Ref. 2523 Eurasia
Date of manufacture: 1953
Auction price: $7.7 million
Auction date: May 2021
Did you know? This is the top auction price for a yellow gold watch. Nicknamed the “Silk Road,” due to its depiction of Eurasia on the dial.
6
5
Patek Philippe
Gobbi Milan “Heures Universelles” Ref. 2523
Date of manufacture: 1953
Auction price: $9 million
Auction date: November 2019
Did you know? This is a collaboration between Patek Philippe and lux retailer Gobbi. It’s one of just seven pink gold, dual-crown world time 2523s.
Patek Philippe
Pink Gold Ref. 1518 with French calendar.
Date of manufacture: 1948
Auction price: $9.6 million
Auction date: December 2021
Did you know? One of just 14 examples of the pink 1518, with this the pick of the bunch.
The most valuable watches ever sold
4
Patek Philippe Stainless Steel Ref. 1518
Date of manufacture: 1943
Auction price: $11.1 million
Auction date: November 2016
Did you know? One of only four stainless steel examples of this reference, this being the top condition of the four.
3
Rolex Paul Newman Daytona Ref. 6239
Date of manufacture: 1968
Auction price: $17.8 million
Auction date: October 2017
Did you know? The only nonPatek Philippe in the top 10, this was actor Paul Newman’s personal Paul Newman Daytona. Those without the personal connection to the film star auction for around $250,000.
The most valuable watches ever sold
2
Patek Philippe Henry Graves Supercomplication
Date of manufacture: 1932
Auction price: $24.0 million
Auction date: November 2014
Auction place: Geneva
Auction house: Sotheby’s
Did you know?
The oldest watch in the top 10, and also the only pocket watch. Just goes to show how the balance has shifted to watches in the last 30 years. Incredibly complex, US banker Henry Graves commissioned it as the ultimate status symbol.
1
Patek Philippe Grandmaster Chime Ref. 6300A-010
Date of manufacture: 2019
Auction price: $31.0 million
Auction date: November 2019
Did you know?
With 20 complications, including an array of chimes, this is Patek Philippe’s most complex watch. Patek unveiled the timepiece in 2014 to mark its 175th anniversary. It took Patek seven years and more than 100,000 hours to make.
Features to look for in an investment watch
Complications
The number of “complications” or “functions” the watch has. Some collectors are “complication junkies”, who love complications like time zones, the date of Easter, Moon phases, and the star chart in their timepiece. The most desirable complication – and the one that really pushes up values of rare collectible watches – is the minute repeater, which can chime the time.
Innovation
Look for brand new complications or watches tailored for a particular use (in the 1950s, Rolex pioneered watches for use by divers (Submariner) or pilots (GMT), for example. These pioneering watches have since become icons of the collecting world, and are highly sought after.
Condition
A rare collectible watch needs to be working for it to achieve its full price at auction. Collectors also like to see all-original parts – no replacements. Scratches and marks can also detract from the value – one good reason why wearing a watch is not a good idea if you’ve bought it as an investment.
Provenance
Has a noted collector or prominent name commissioned or owned the watch? For instance, Patek Philippe produced only 349 ref 2499s in their 35-year history, with only two of them being platinum. Eric Clapton owned one of them. It sold for $3.6 million at Christie’s in 2012.
Material
The value of the metal has a strong bearing on price, particularly at the lower end of the market. There is a long-established hierarchy of platinum, white gold, rose gold, yellow gold and stainless steel. But, some vintage watches that are made of steel are very rare, so don’t dismiss them.
Rarity
Rarity is a key factor, but only if the watch is desirable.
Questions to ask yourself when considering an investment.
Has anyone ever worn the watch?
Is it in perfect condition?
Has it been polished?
Rare watch collectors place a large premium on pristine, unworn examples - unless it has been worn by a celebrity of course.
Does it come with the original warranty card, also known as “papers”?
That adds greatly to the watch’s appeal and provides strong authenticity.
Does it come in its original box?
This adds to its desirability and value.
Does it have the original inserts, bezel protector, and bill of sale?
These are all “nice to haves” that increase value.
Top 5 celebrity-worn watches sold at auction
Sold for: $254,273
Daniel Craig’s James Bond Omega Seamaster
Craig wore the Automatic Seamaster Professional ‘Planet Ocean’ watch in 2012 film Skyfall. Rolex built a unique version in Titanium for use in action scenes. Christie’s offered the watch at the ‘50 Years of James Bond’ auction in 2012. It sold for $254,273.
Sold for: $350,000
JFK’s Omega gold Ultrathin
In 1960, John F. Kennedy’s close friend Grant Stockdale gave him a gold Omega Ultrathin watch. The message on it read: “President of the United States John F. Kennedy from his friend Grant.” Kennedy wasn’t elected President until a year later. But, he clearly saw the watch as a good sign. He wore it at his inauguration in January 1961. The Omega Museum bought the watch for $350,000 in 2005.
Sold for: $596,000
Albert Einstein’s gold Longines
The gold Longines watch was presented to Einstein in 1931 by Rabbi Edgar Magnin at a luncheon in Los Angeles. Bearing the inscription “Prof. Albert Einstein, Los Angeles, Feb. 16, 1931”, the watch soared past its estimate of $25,000-$35,000 to sell for $596,000 in 2008 – a record price for a Longines watch at auction.
Sold for: $799,500
Steve McQueen’s Swiss Heuer Monaco Series
Steve McQueen wore this Swiss Heuer Monaco Series watch during production and promotion for his 1971 racing drama Le Mans. At least two further examples were also worn by the actor during filming, with one residing in the Tag Heuer museum. However, this model – in the best condition of the three – sold for $799,500 in 2012, setting a record for a movie-worn watch.
Sold for: $974,500
Elizabeth Taylor’s Bvlgari Serpenti
The sale of Elizabeth Taylor’s jewellery collection in 2011 set a new world record for a singleowner collection. Every single lot on offer smashed its estimate, on the way to a total of $116 million. The gold Bvlgari ‘Serpenti’ watch, made circa 1961, was expected to sell for $12,000-$15,000 but made $974,500.
5 keys to investing in rare collectible watches for profit
Buy quality
Buy the best you can afford, as only the top pieces show investment potential. Quality remains long after the price is forgotten. Stick to the best known brands, such as Patek Philippe and Rolex, as their reputation is unlikely to fade in the minds of fellow collectors.
Buy rarity
Rarity drives the market: a rare watch collector will pay more for a model they haven’t been able to find before. The desire to own the unobtainable is a primary driver of price growth.
Buy best condition
Collectors are willing to pay significantly more for a timepiece in pristine condition. So hunt for the best condition you can afford - it will reap dividends in the long run. Ideally you want an unworn watch. Second-best is a worn example that shows barely a trace of use.
Buy provenance
A watch can be worth thousands, but if the ownership history is uncertain, collectors are less likely to find it attractive. Buy boxed rare collectible watches that have full documentation, and if you can find a watch worn by a famous name, you could be on to a winner.
Buy iconic
Certain watch lines will never go out of fashion, and are likely to hold their value long into the future. Think Rolex Daytona rather than Rolex Milgauss.
Invest in rare collectible watches today.
Build a high-performing rare watch collection with our guidance.
Invest in an asset which will provide you with years of pleasure and pride of ownership, with the confidence of expecting an ultimate sale and attractive investment returns.
Arrange an introductory call with one of our watch specialists, at a time convenient to you.
Call +44(0)1534 639998 or email info@paulfrasercollectibles.com
info@paulfrasercollectibles.com
paulfrasercollectibles.com
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