General Election 2 July 2016 Relevant counts not conventional for two-party preferred vote Barker (SA)
Tony Pasin (Liberal) James Stacey (Nick Xenophon Team) Swing needed by Nick Xenophon Team: 4.8%
Cowper (NSW)
Luke Hartsuyker (Nationals) Robert Oakeshott (Independent) Swing needed by Oakeshott: 4.6%
51,698 42,747
54.74% 45.26%
56,443 47,017
54.56% 45.44%
Denison (Tasmania) - to be called Clark in 2019 Andrew Wilkie (Independent) Jane Austin (Labor) Swing needed by Labor: 17.8%
Grayndler (NSW)
Anthony Albanese (Labor) Jim Casey (Greens) Swing needed by Greens: 15.9%
Grey (SA)
Rowan Ramsey (Liberal) Andrea Broadfoot (Nick Xenophon Team) Swing needed by Nick Xenophon Team: 2.0%
Higgins (Victoria)
Kelly O’Dwyer (Liberal) Jason Ball (Greens) Swing needed by Greens: 8.0%
Indi (Victoria)
Cathy McGowan (Independent) Sophie Mirabella (Liberal) Swing needed by Liberal: 4.9%
Kennedy (Queensland)
Bob Katter (Independent) Jonathan Pavetto (Liberal National Party) Swing needed by Liberal National Party: 11.2%
Maranoa (Queensland)
David Littleproud (Liberal National Party) Lynette Keehn (Pauline Hanson’s One Nation) Swing needed by Pauline Hanson’s One Nation: 15.9%
Mayo (SA)
Rebekha Sharkie (Nick Xenophon Team) Jamie Briggs (Liberal) Swing needed by Liberal: 5.0%
Melbourne (Victoria)
Adam Bandt (Greens) Le Liu (Liberal) Swing needed by Liberal: 18.5%
Warringah (NSW)
Tony Abbott (Liberal) Clara Williams Roldan (Greens) Swing needed by Greens: 11.6%
Wills (Victoria)
Peter Khalil (Labor) Samantha Ratnam (Greens) Swing needed by Greens: 4.9%
45,176 21,478
67.78% 32.22%
57,872 30,050
65.82% 34.18%
46,692 43,184
51.95% 48.05%
52,359 37,932
57.99% 42.01%
49,421 40,716
54.83% 45.17%
52,570 33,440
61.12% 38.88%
59,308 30,741
65.86% 34.14%
52,283 42,833
54.97% 45.03%
64,771 29,808
68.48% 31.52%
53,346 33,320
61.55% 38.45%
51,646 42,462
54.88% 45.12%
Subsequent by-election counts not conventional for two-party preferred vote Batman (Victoria) 17 March 2018 - to be called Cooper in 2019 Ged Kearney (Labor) Alex Bhathal (Greens) Swing needed by Greens: 4.4%
Mayo (SA) 28 July 2018
Rebekha Sharkie (Centre Alliance) Georgina Downer (Liberal) Swing needed by Liberal: 7.6%
Wentworth (NSW) 20 October 2018 Kerryn Phelps (Independent) Dave Sharma (Liberal) Swing needed by Liberal: 1.3%
46,446 38,958
54.38% 45.62%
51,042 37,687
57.53% 42.47%
38,988 37,139
51.21% 48.79%
Note: With Malcolm Turnbull having secured 67.75 % in 2016 (in a contest with Labor) and Dave Sharma getting 48.79 % in 2018 the swing against the Liberal Party was 18.96%. By way of contrast the swing against the National Party (when it lost the Lyne by-election in September 2008) was 32.45% while the swing against Labor (when it lost the Wills by-election in April 1992) was 23.63%. For Pendulum see other side.
Malcolm Mackerras 12 February 2019
Mackerras Pendulum Federal 2019
GOVERNMENT SEATS
OPPOSITION SEATS
Liberal Nationals Other Total Majority 4 77 3 57 16 Nicholls (Nat, Vic) Bradfield (Lib, NSW) Curtin (Lib, WA) Farrer (Lib, NSW) Mallee (Nat, Vic)
141 139 137 135 133 131 129 127 125 123 121 119
18.2 17.9 17.8 17.6 16.5 16.5 16.4 15.8 15.4 15.3 15.1 15.1
Gippsland (Nat, Vic) Mitchell (Lib, NSW) Wentworth (Phelps, NSW) Maranoa (Nat, Qld) Berowra (Lib, NSW) Riverina (Nat, NSW) New England (Nat, NSW) Mackellar (Lib, NSW) Cook (Lib, NSW) Groom (Lib, Qld) Parkes (Nat, NSW) O’Connor (Lib, WA)
117 115 113 111 109 107 105 103 101 99 97 95 93 91 89 87 85 83
14.6 13.9 13.6 12.9 12.7 12.6 12.6 11.8 11.7 11.6 11.3 11.2 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.0 10.2 10.1
Moncrieff (Lib, Qld) Barker (Lib, SA) North Sydney (Lib, NSW) Kooyong (Lib, Vic) Goldstein (Lib, Vic) Cowper (Nat, NSW) Forrest (Lib, WA) Calare (Nat, NSW) McPherson (Lib, Qld) Lyne (Nat, NSW) Fadden (Lib, Qld) Fairfax (Lib, Qld) Warringah (Lib, NSW) Tangney (Lib, WA) Durack (Lib, WA) Moore (Lib, WA) Hume (Lib, NSW) Higgins (Lib, Vic)
81 79 77 75 73
9.8 9.7 9.4 9.2 9.1
Bennelong (Lib, NSW) Wright (Lib, Qld) Hughes (Lib, NSW) Wannon (Lib, Vic) Ryan (Lib, Qld)
71 69 67 65
8.9 8.4 8.3 8.1
Fisher (Lib, Qld) Hinkler (Nat, Qld) Wide Bay (Nat, Qld) Grey (Lib, SA)
63 61 59 57 55
7.8 7.6 7.5 7.2 7.1
Menzies (Lib, Vic) Aston (Lib, Vic) Monash (Lib, Vic) Flinders (Lib, Vic) Bowman (Lib, Qld)
53 51 49 47 45
6.9 6.8 6.5 6.2 6.1
Kennedy (Katter, Qld) Canning (Lib, WA) Deakin (Lib, Vic) Stirling (Lib, WA) Brisbane (Lib, Qld)
43 41
5.4 5.1
Sturt (Lib, SA) Indi (McGowan, Vic)
39
4.7
%
%
20
20
15
9
8
8
7
7
6
6
5 4
5 4 3
1
on (
ck
(L
ib ,W A) L ib, ie ( L Ql ib, Ban d 1.2 Ql ks ( d) ) Lib Rob , NS erts W) 1.1 on (Lib Flyn , NS n (N W) at, Q ld) 0.8 Gilmo re (Lib , NSW 0.7 ) Forde (Lib , Qld) 0.6 Capricornia (Nat, Qld )
2
1.7
1.8
Pe tr
Di
ck s
Ha slu
2.1
/Gr een sm
ajorit
y
3
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
1.5
15
Ind
151 149 147 145
Fraser (Vic) Blaxland (NSW) Calwell (Vic) Chifley (NSW) Gorton (Vic) Watson (NSW) Fowler (NSW) Spence (SA) Melbourne (Greens, Vic) Clark (Wilkie, Tas) Sydney (NSW) Gellibrand (Vic)
19.8 19.5 19.4 19.2 18.5 17.6 17.5 17.2 16.9 15.4 15.3 15.2
143 141 139 137 135 133 131 129 127 125 123 121
Bruce (Vic) Lalor (Vic) Newcastle (NSW) Whitlam (NSW) Kingston (SA) Cunningham (NSW) Hunter (NSW) Canberra (ACT) Fenner (ACT) McMahon (NSW) Brand (WA) Rankin (Qld) Makin (SA) Paterson (NSW) Franklin (Tas) Maribyrnong (Vic)
14.3 14.2 13.9 13.8 13.6 13.4 12.5 12.4 12.2 12.1 11.5 11.3 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.4
119 117 115 113 111 109 107 105 103 101 99 97 95 93 91 89
Shortland (NSW) Holt (Vic) Oxley (Qld)
9.9 9.8 9.1
87 85 83
Bean (ACT) Corio (Vic) Hindmarsh (SA) Kingsford Smith (NSW) Blair (Qld) Macarthur (NSW) Barton (NSW) Werriwa (NSW) Lingiari (NT)
8.9 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.2 8.1
81 79 77 75 73 71 69 67 65
Adelaide (SA) Parramatta (NSW) Fremantle (WA) Ballarat (Vic) Burt (WA)
7.9 7.7 7.6 7.4 7.1
63 61 59 57 55
Greenway (NSW) Solomon (NT)
6.3 6.1
53 51
McEwen (Vic) Lilley (Qld) Jagajaga (Vic) Bass (Tas)
6.0 5.7 5.6 5.5
49 47 45 43
1
2
Dobell (NSW) 4.8 41 Hotham (Vic) 4.2 39 Moreton (Qld) 4.1 Richm 37 ond (N SW ) Lyon 4.0 s ( Ta Ben s) 35 digo 3 .9 ( Vic Per ) 33 th ( 3.8 WA Isa Ed ) acs en 31 ( Vi 3.4 -M c) on M aro 3.1 ac 29 qu (N SW ar ie ) 27 (N SW 3.0 )
ity Lib/Nat/Other major
2.
2
25
Labor 49.6%
23
21
La bo r/
22.4 22.0 21.6 20.1
10
9
3
Total 74
Grayndler (NSW) Cooper (Vic) Wills (Vic) Scullin (Vic)
19 1.8 17 s) 1.5 Ta n( ) do (Qld 1.2 15 ad Br riffith c) ( Vi G 1.2 ley 13 nk Vic) Du ra ( .1 1 ma cna W) Ma 11 (NS say 0.8 Lind Qld) 9 man ( .7 0 Long ( WA) 7 Cowan .1 0 ite (Vic) Corangam 5 0.1 Herbert (Qld)
Lib-Nat 50.4%
15
10
Reid (Lib, NSW) Casey (Lib, Vic) 4.6 37 ) t (Lib, Qld Leichhard 4.1 ) A S 35 harkie, Mayo (S , WA) 3.7 e (Lib 33 Pearc ib, WA) ) 3.7 Qld n (L Swa r (Lib, , Qld) 31 e n at ic) 3.6 Bon on (N ib, V ) s (L w Vic 29 3.4 Da robe ib, A) L ( T La lm ib, S ) 3.4 27 ho (L W s i .2 Ch thby t, NS 3 o a 25 o N B 3.0 e( ag 23 P 8 2. 21 2.3 19 17
SWING TO LIBERAL / NATIONAL PARTIES
22.7 21.1 20.7 20.6 20.1
SWING TO LABOR PARTY
151 149 147 145 143
Labor Greens Independent 72 1 1
KEY 5.4
Swing required to take seat
43
Majority in seats
Result of 45th general election for the Australian House of Representatives, 2 July 2016, as adjusted for the Wentworth by-election, 20 October 2018, and for boundary changes completed in July 2018. The Labor seats of Fraser, Spence, Bean, Dunkley and Corangamite are shown in red to indicate redistribution effects on Labor. Fraser and Bean are new Labor seats consequent upon Victoria and the ACT each gaining a seat. Spence is the new name for the amalgamation of the safe Labor seats of Port Adelaide and Wakefield to reduce SA from 11 seats to 10. Dunkley and Corangamite are presently held by the Liberal Party but become notionally Labor on their new boundaries. For more information see other side.