by ED MCKINLEY
Factfulness Meets Superforecasting
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Two movements aim to nudge society toward a more data-driven search for truth and probability
he theater reverberated with laughter and applause as a Swedish physician put a humorous spin on a profound message. Paradoxically, he was capturing the crowd’s imagination and winning their affection by revealing their ignorance. “In the last 20 years, how did the percentage of people in the world who live in extreme poverty change?” the late Hans Rosling asked the audience at one of his TED Talks. He added that “not having enough food for the day” was his definition. His listeners entered their estimates on handheld devices offering three options. They could declare extreme poverty had doubled, stayed about the same or was reduced by half. While their choices were being tabulated, Rosling announced that only 5% of Americans had responded correctly in a previous iteration of the test. Yes, 95% didn’t know the percentage of the population in extreme poverty had fallen by 50% in just two decades. But the audience at this particular TED Talk had done much better. Thirty-two percent got it right, nearly equaling the 33½3 % a group of chimpanzees would score by responding at random, he told the group. This was their introduction to what Rosling called “Factfulness,” a crusade to combat false notions of how the world works.
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TRUTH
80%
of the world’s population has some access to electricity. Most in the West get it wrong. — FAC T F U L N E SS
LU C KBOX
12/21/23 10:23 PM
