2024 Annual Report
2024 SUMMARY
Despite volatile mortgage rates, the market in King County remained resilient, continuing to operate as a seller’s market across most price segments and regions.
In the single-family housing market, inventory for sale increased by approximately 25% compared to the previous year. While this may appear significant, it is important to view it in context. The single-family market in King County is so constrained that, even during periods of softening demand, there is still enough buyer activity to absorb the available supply at a pace that prevents inventory from reaching balanced levels (typically 4–5 months of supply) or anywhere close to it.
In 2024, the annual average months of supply stood at just 1.26 months. Put simply, in any given month, it would have taken only 1.26 months to sell all the homes on the market at the current pace of sales. For context, since the recovery from the Great Recession, there have only been two brief periods where months of supply approached a more balanced state—September 2018 and March 2012. Otherwise, it has been a consistent struggle, particularly since 2015, to even hit two months of supply, underscoring just how constrained the market remains.
The median sale price for a single-family home in King County increased by 10% in 2024 but appears to be trending toward the long-term average. Historically, based on NWMLS data, the average annual appreciation for single-family homes in the region has been around 7%. Since Q2 2022, erratic mortgage rates along with their impact relative to already high prices—have driven the recent reversion to more moderate appreciation levels. That said, any decline in mortgage rates in 2025 could easily shift the rate of price growth upward again
Following the Federal Reserve’s December FOMC meeting, the consensus among bond markets, top economists, and financial institutions is that rates are likely to remain "higher for longer" throughout 2025. If this outlook holds, there may be room for price growth to decelerate further, though prices will likely remain strong due to the ongoing supply shortage.
2024 SUMMARY
One question that has frequently arisen with clients is how the Missing Middle Housing Bill legislation passed in 2023 requiring jurisdictions to update their comprehensive plans to allow for more housing might impact future price growth First, considering the lengthy timelines for development and construction, we do not foresee any significant downside risk to price growth for single-family homes in the near term. Second, much of the construction stemming from this legislation has so far focused on ADUs (Accessory Dwelling Units) and DADUs (Detached Accessory Dwelling Units). While these units may create downward price pressure on condos and townhomes since a 1,000-square-foot DADU can serve as an alternative they are unlikely to directly compete with traditional single-family homes
As we approach the Spring 2025 market, we’ll be closely monitoring key indicators, including mortgage rates, inventory levels, sales price ratios (the ratio of sold price to original list price), tech stock performance, inflation trends, and Federal Reserve policy. These factors will play a critical role in shaping the housing market’s trajectory for the year. If consensus expectations for mortgage rates hold steady, we anticipate King County’s price appreciation will outperform the national forecast of 2%–4.5% and land between 7-10% in 2025.
If you or someone you know is considering buying or selling real estate in 2025, the Lawrenson team is here to provide expert guidance through market conditions and discuss tailored strategies. Wishing you a prosperous and wonderful 2025!
Warm Regards,
AARON LAWRENSON
MANAGING BROKER
LAWRENSON HOMES
SHEILA LAWRENSON MANAGING BROKER
LAWRENSON HOMES
SINGLE-FAMILY
ABSORPTION RATE (MONTHS OF SUPPLY)
*KING COUNTY SINGLE-FAMILY
EASTSIDE AREAS
SEATTLE METRO AREAS
PRICE APPRECIATION
KING COUNTY SINGLE-FAMILY - MEDIAN SALE PRICE
PRICE APPRECIATION
*Data from NWMLS Only includes single-family homes in King County Data excludes waterfront properties
PRICE APPRECIATION
SEATTLE METRO AREAS
*Data from NWMLS Only includes single-family homes in King County Data excludes waterfront properties
CONDOS
ABSORPTION RATE (MONTHS OF SUPPLY)
*KING COUNTY CONDOS Months of Inventory Balanced Market (4
ABSORPTION RATE (MONTHS
EASTSIDE AREAS
SEATTLE METRO AREAS
PRICE APPRECIATION
KING COUNTY CONDOS - MEDIAN SALE PRICE
PRICE APPRECIATION
*Data from NWMLS Data includes condos and townhomes in King County
PRICE APPRECIATION
SEATTLE METRO AREAS -
*Data from NWMLS Data includes condos and townhomes in King County
US MARKET FORECASTS
US MARKET FORECASTS
INDUSTRY EXPERTS
“The FOMC cut its rate target by another 25 basis points as the market had anticipated However, while the cut was expected, and the statement was little changed, FOMC members’ projections regarding the future path for the federal funds rate moved up in the near term, and for their expectations for the longer-term neutral rate. The median member now expects that there will only be 2 cuts in 2025 and that the federal funds target will be 3% in the long run. MBA forecasts that the federal funds rate will only drop to 3.75% this cycle. The projections also showed somewhat faster growth and somewhat higher inflation in the near term relative to the projections in September While the unemployment rate has increased over the past year, and inflation has trended down, in recent months, inflation has plateaued. It was not surprising to see a dissent at this meeting, with one member voting to keep rates steady. Expectations that the Fed will cut rates less than had been anticipated have been priced into the market in the form of higher 10-year Treasury and higher mortgage rates in recent weeks MBA’s forecast for mortgage rates moved up after the election, anticipating this change and recognizing the market’s reaction to the likely path for fiscal policy and the deficit. MBA is forecasting that mortgage rates will average close to 6.5% over the next few years, with significant volatility around that average.”
Mike Fratantoni, Chief Economist at MBA
“NAHB is forecasting additional interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2025, but with inflation pressures still present, we have reduced that forecast from 100 basis points to 75 basis points for the federal funds rate. Concerns over inflation risks in 2025 will keep longterm interest rates, like mortgage rates, near current levels with mortgage rates remaining above 6%.” Robert
Dietz, Chief Economist at National Association of
Home Builders
“Before January, mortgage rates are likely to climb a bit higher as markets digest the latest Fed news. Eventually, I expect mortgage rates to move back toward the low 6% range. Whether the turnaround begins in January or a bit later in the year is going to depend on incoming data, particularly on the labor market and inflation. The stickiness of recent price data and relative economic strength despite higher rates has markets positioning cautiously in 2025. Even though the Fed’s revised projections of higher rates in 2025 and 2026 were largely baked into Fed funds futures, markets have tightened a bit further so as to not be caught off guard. This raises the possibility of a move lower if inflation data relent in the months ahead.”
Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com
US MARKET FORECASTS
INDUSTRY EXPERTS
“Mortgage rates, which are loosely benchmarked to the 10-year Treasury yield, are likely to be slightly elevated in January, following the Fed’s projected slower pace of easing in 2025. The Fed’s slower pace of easing next year is based on stronger-than-expected economic activity and stalled progress in bringing down inflation in recent months. However, emerging signs of economic weakness or lower-than-expected inflation could exert downward pressure on rates in January.”
Sam Williamson, Senior Economist at First American
“Signs point to mortgage rates easing in 2025, but as we saw in 2024, mortgage rates rarely follow the expected path. What is more certain is that buyers should expect plenty of ups and downs throughout the year. Mortgage rates fell in September, briefly bringing the share of affordable listings to a 19-month high. They have since climbed back to nearly 7%, changing the affordability picture for home buyers More swings like this are expected in 2025, with refinancing sprints occurring during the dips.”
Skylar Olson, Chief Economist at Zillow
“Mortgage rates are likely to remain in the high-6% range throughout 2025, with the weekly average rate fluctuating throughout the year but averaging around 6.8%. Investors are anticipating that if President-elect Donald Trump implements a significant portion of his proposed tax cuts and tariffs, and the economy stays strong, the Fed will only cut its policy rate twice in 2025, keeping mortgage rates high Tariffs could be inflationary, and enacting more tax cuts would increase the U.S. deficit, both of which would push mortgage rates up. High mortgage rates are the second part of the equation that will keep homebuying unaffordable.”
Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist at Redfin
“Everything changed after the December Federal Reserve meeting and Chairman Powell’s comments. Bond yields soared, taking mortgage rates with them, where they seem likely to stay above 7% during January. The market senses some uncertainty on the part of the Fed when it comes to inflation, and what looks like a plan that will keep borrowing costs ‘higher for longer.’ That doesn’t bode well for anyone waiting for mortgage rates to fall dramatically. There’s still a chance that mortgage rates will decline over the course of 2025, but probably not as much as had been predicted earlier So we may stay in the 7% range for January and possible the first quarter as well.”
Rick Sharga, CEO at CJ Patrick Company
SELLER REPRESENTATION
WHAT WE DO ON A HIGH LEVEL
LIST PREP
It’s all about first impressions We offer suggestions for maximizing buyer attraction and help coordinate vendors to get any work done. We also provide a concierge service that will front the costs of getting your house to market. Projects include major updates to minor fixes. We provide you all of the proper legal disclosures and analyze title to address any concerns upfront to make sure the closing process goes smoothly. According to the National Association of Realtors, 86% of potential buyers find it easier for themselves to visualize a property when it's staged. We have great stagers and as part of our service, we offer a complimentary design consultation, once a listing agreement is signed.
PROFESSIONAL PHOTOGRAPHY
We hire only the best photographers in the region Our images, (dusk, daylight, aerials and lifestyle) are then shared to thousands of viewers online and in print. Using our high-quality print collateral, we showcase your home’s best features.
PROFESSIONAL VIDEO
When it comes to creating an emotional appeal, nothing does it better than video. Not only that, but video is also critical when it comes to getting eyes on real estate listings. Our videographers create engaging experiences for potential buyers, piquing their interest and establishing a connection to the home.
VIRTUAL TOURS
With 3D Matterport technology and 2D layouts, Buyers can tour your home from anywhere in the world
SYNDICATION
Your home is shared locally and globally
Once your home goes live, it is shared to Coldwell Banker’s 24 local offices and 1,300+ brokers. Your home is also shared to 94 websites and 54 countries worldwide. Our listings can also be featured on sites such as the WSJ, Bloomberg and JamesEdition
TRANSACTION MANAGEMENT
Once we get under contract, we ensure you’re continually informed on contractual deadlines, advise you on your negotiation strategy, coordinate inspections, regularly communicate with the buyer's lender and escrow, justify value to the appraiser, help advise you on issues that may arise, and ensure re we meet our closing date.
