group project: Trend forecasting report

C ontents

I ntrodu C t I on

We conducted this research report with the intention of discovering future trends among consumers with regards to sustainability. As a group we have developed our analysis skills and ability to uncover emerging mega, macro and micro trends. During the project there has been specific emphasis on the importance of teamwork, and we have been able to improve on these skills, despite the Covid-19 pandemic which restricted our ability to meet in person. Teamwork was an important element of our report as we all communicated ideas and research to discover future trends based on broad research and analysis. Teamwork is particularly important when all members have a shared goal to succeed. In order to work in a team successfully and

achieve the best outcome, we organised a team charter at the start of the project which outlined the strengths and weaknesses of each member. This aided the process of selecting suitable weekly tasks to play on strengths. An effective team incorporates a range of work styles (Parker, 2008) to achieve success, so it was advantageous that our team have strengths in different areas. As well as this, we were able to track our progress using a series of weekly logs which we completed to reflect on the standard of work set in the previous weeks and assign tasks for the following week. This was a helpful tool which enabled us to be more organised and proactive.

The task required us to collect research on zeitgeist themes of which we selected: Coronavirus, the Ageing Population and Climate Change. We conducted a presentation which included extensive research on these mega trends focusing on three macro trends for each, before coming to the decision to further explore the

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theme of Climate Change, due to its contemporary relevance and growing importance. We soon after titled the theme Hyperconscious Consumerism, due to the focus on living a more sustainable and thoughtful lifestyle, acting on zero-waste decisions where possible. The decision for the name was continually modified throughout the research and writing process of the report. Many ideas around zero waste, conscious consumption and ethical living were considered to represent the best-case scenario for the future of sustainability. Cooperatively the name Hyperconscious Consumerism was chosen to represent and summarise the identified trend of living with only what is required to reduce waste.

Although our research allowed us to make important breakthroughs regarding our chosen theme, the main objective of this project was to develop our understanding of trend shifts

from a social and political viewpoint, as well as how they occur within society. Academic resources are central to the report, including a PESTEL analysis, Trend Cartograms (visual) and relevant theories and standpoints which we became aware of through academic readings. Awareness of the importance of the consumer was shown within our report. Using market segmentation, we broke-down the psychographics, behavioural and demographic aspects of how we envisioned our ideal consumer. It is important to understand the consumer in the present day due to the continually changing external environment which largely impacts product life cycles. With multiple opportunities arising, it is important for businesses to be aware of how to capitalise on which.

trend F ore C ast I ng

Trend Forecasting involves predicting future consumer trends based on changes in attitudes and lifestyles (Raymond, 2010, p.12). These can be global implications. For industries, trend forecasting enables companies to calculate and forecast developments and upcoming consumer preferences. Anticipating trends offers a competitive advantage by aligning product development with consumer preferences and timing the arrival of products within the marketplace (Brannon, 2000). Trend forecasting is utilized in order to provide an outlook into product positioning, ensuring companies stay on trend, providing insight into potential future fluctuations.

Trend forecasting predicts awaiting shifts and is essential for recognising developing patterns within humanity. “Forecasters use a battery of techniques and processes that have been derived from disciplines as diverse as sociology, psychology and ethnography” (Raymond, 2010, p.14), meaning a broad range of data is collected, applicable to a variety of industry sectors. It is mandatory to use preliminary trends from a broad range of subjects in order to develop predicting trends for the present day.

By using older studies from long lasting subjects a more analytical approach can be undertaken as more information can

be acquired.

In terms of the fashion industry, forecasting is used in several ways to foresee diverse outcomes. Professionals in the fashion industry use integrated fashion forecasting to establish long-term marketing strategies, while designers and merchandisers use it for seasonal product development (Brannon, 2010). This process combines different sectors together, allowing for greater evidence in how consumers select products. Large industries observe public attitudes and behaviors to provide market research for wider organizations.

For example, Lisa White at WGSN explains how cultural trends for the past six months are analysed and changes are predicted for the following years in order to provide a background for consumer trends. This allows brands to understand how their consumers have behaved in the past to make more accurate predictions for how they may behave in the future, working ahead of consumer behaviour as opposed to reacting to which (WGSN, 2020).

“Forecasters use a battery of techniques and processes that have been derived from disciplines as diverse as sociology, psychology and ethnography” (Raymond, 2010, p.14)

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r esear C h M ethods

Trend Forecasters use a variety of research methods in order to assist the prediction of new emerging trends. Intuition is used alongside market research to develop a setting “which they then communicate through writing and mood boards” (The British Library, 2020). Observing society gives insight into what trends will emerge in the future.

By analysing trends, forecasters observe the interaction between buying habits, lifestyles and values for a broad understanding (Brannon, 2000, p.12). Predominantly, trend cartograms assist an exploration into trend origin by examining the innovators, drivers, impact, consequences and futures of the trend. Forecasters can decode and understand a trend using a cartogram; disclosing which trends may emerge and develop in the future, investigating themes that may congregate to form a trend. The five elements of the framework enable forecasters to consider a range of contexts, utilising PESTEL analysis to appreciate the external environment as well as current consumer and business behaviours in order to effectively predict potential future trends.

In addition, effective market research is essential, investigating real markets and the drivers that cause trends to emerge. Data can be

collected from a variety of methods including surveys to analyse a wide range of products, allowing future trend predictions to take place. Previous markets are analysed, allowing further background research prior to the investigation. This method is closely related to Visionary Forecasting which involves “personal insights, prophecies, judgement and when possible, facts about different scenarios of the future” (Kumar, 2000, p.242). This technique utilises personal judgement based on initial research and market knowledge. Observation involves taking note of the world around them by mapping places, people and items.

Moreover, Historical Analogy observes past scenarios, predicting that the future will resemble a similar pattern of behaviour again. For example, new products are expected to have similar outcomes to previous objects that adopt a similar form (Kumar, 2000, p.241). However, this method is reliant on the forecasters’ understanding of past trends and behaviours and so, often requires indepth market experience (Vasigh et al., 2016, p.288).

which imposes a “more logical, visual and textually coherent framework”

allowing the characteristics of the trend to be prevalent. In order to predict trends, certain methods are used including secondary sources such as academic books, and articles, as well as primary media sources including, newspaper, and magazine articles, TV, and radio, as well as trade fairs (Raymond, 2010, p.44). This ensures forecasters are up to date with the latest trends and are aware of potential upcoming themes.

Trend Framing is another method

(Raymond,2000, p.60),

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e I tge I sts

The purpose of this task was to gauge a deeper understanding of the external environment in which brands operate. Through carrying out a PESTEL analysis (Appendix B), it was possible to identify a range of current trends and decide on three themes to research in greater detail. Analysis of the themes involved understanding the mega, macro and micro trends for each as well as the relevant zeitgeists. The three mega trends chosen for the presentation (Appendix A) were climate change and sustainability, COVID-19, and the ageing population. A range of reliable sources were utilised to research each mega trend and understand consumer behaviours and lifestyle choices.

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A megatrend is “a large social, cultural, economic, political or technological change that is slow to form but will influence a market over an extended time-frame” (Posner, 2015, p.93). Megatrends shape the world around us and have profound impact on our lives and organisations (PWC, 2020). The megatrends chosen were Climate Change and Sustainability, COVID-19, and the Ageing Population.

Macro trends are the large-scale impacts on consumer behaviour from global driving forces (Future Lab, 2020). The drivers are identified through a PESTEL analysis that considers changes in the external environment and their consumer impact. Macro trends are made up of numerous micro trends and represent how consumers likes and wants are changing (Higham, 2009, p.88). Three macro trends were identified for each mega trend. These include veganism, sustainable fashion, and zero waste; PPE, homebound living, and digital dependency; and the adapted workplace, healthy living, and decreased marriage.

Micro trends are the most specific of the three often only impacting a minimal group of customers; “larger than fads but smaller than macro trends” (Higham, 2009, p.87). They are often restricted to a specific geographical location but will likely gain momentum and spread over time. Different micro trends were identified as a result of the chosen macro trends, including rental fashion, virtual meetings, and living-aparttogether.

M ega M a C ro

M IC ro

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(Buller et al, 2020) (Houghton & Buller, 2020). Environmental activists are strengthening consumer and business attitudes towards sustainability with the ‘Greta Effect’ encouraging a reduction in carbon-footprint (Larville, 2019).

C l IM ate C hange & s usta I nab I l I ty

in greenwashing, thus devaluing the meaning of sustainability, bringing to question whether fashion really can be sustainable (Indvik, 2020).

Although climate change and sustainability are not new concepts, recent changes have been shaped around growing interest and awareness. More than ever before, consumers understand the current climate and are changing their behaviour to reduce their impact. The three macro trends chosen were: veganism, sustainable fashion, and zero waste.

There is a link between transportation and air pollution due to the emission of greenhouse gases (Torok, 2008).

Recent shifts in consumer lifestyles have caused greater demand for sustainable travel including public transport and bicycle use; the driving of cars is projected to reduce by 10% by 2030; to account for less than half of all city transport (Elks, 2020). Another important consumer change is the rise of veganism. The Vegan Society (2020) reported an increase in the number of vegans in 2019 in the UK by four times the amount in 2014, with the market being worth £443m. This shift in consumer behaviour has encouraged the opening of vegan-only supermarkets, meat-free butchers and greater availability of vegan alternatives P E S

A circular economy employs a continuous cycle which considers all elements of a product from design to end-of-life, ensuring zero-waste (Hestin & Poukka, 2020). One business who adopts a circular framework is the Modern Milkman delivering milk and other essentials in reusable glass bottles and containers, adopting plastic-free packaging which can also be recycled (Modern Milkman, 2020). Moreover, the Australian Close the Loop brand reuse plastic print cartridges to create longer-lasting road surfaces, reducing the number of materials ending up in landfill (Thornton, 2019). T E L

Consumer shifts in fashion consumption is apparent through increased demand for sustainable options. Previously restricted to the designer market, rental fashion has made its way to the highstreet with more consumers opting to rent clothing for one-off outfits, a market estimated to reach a value of £1.46bn by 2023 (Bishop, 2019). The growth of Depop as a platform to sell second-hand/vintage clothing has also attracted the Gen Z market, with many young people starting their own businesses (Remsen, 2017). Sustainable fashion has been promoted by designers such as Stella McCartney for some time, and whilst some brands are committed to limiting their impact, the trend has attracted a rise

Protests AffordAble renewAble energy VegAnism

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Figure 11 sustAinAble mAteriAls lAndfill single-use PlAstic

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C oronav I rus

The pandemic has had long-standing impacts on a variety of sectors, and despite being somewhat predicted, the extent to which it would impact the world as well as the exact time it would occur could not have been foreseen. The three macro trends chosen were: PPE, reduced travel and digital dependency.

Hospitals and healthcare were most significantly impacted, with the reorganisation of the NHS to prioritise coronavirus patients as well as those needing urgent care as a way of coping

with the increased admissions (Lewis, 2020). Moreover, medical research and scientific testing was assigned to COVID-19, with a recent breakthrough of a better-than-expected 90% efficacy vaccine (Financial Times, 2020). Budd et al (2020) credit the use of digital technologies in the medical sector, including contract tracing to identify

cases and the source of which (Budd et al, 2020). Moreover, the demand for PPE has surged, meaning not all demand could be met. Many individuals have contributed by making reusable face coverings and scrubs, along with several fashion brands who have now begun to capitalise on the growing trend for stylish versions.

Border restrictions and lockdowns have placed the travel industry in a concerning decline. “Several longstanding travel companies have failed during the pandemic” (Choat, 2020) as consumers have remained at home due to fears of catching the virus as well as self-isolation and social distancing rules. As a result, the tourism industry has been significantly impacted as holiday destinations are below average capacity. Alongside personal travel, trade services

have also been impacted globally, falling by £33.1bn over a threemonth period. Demand for fuel and machinery were most affected due to changing lifestyles, spending more time at home and prioritising necessary goods (ONS, 2020).

Consumer lifestyles have altered with non-essential stores closed, and workplaces and education relocated online. Consumers are increasingly dependent on digital devices. Broadband and mobile networks saw an increased demand with aims to improve quality. The shift to online retail is sooner than expected, with additional reorganisation from consumer attitudes to supporting local. Younger generations will also be more techsavvy as education relies greater on online platforms for teaching. Whilst most children own a mobile or tablet, a percentage do not have access to technology and so schemes will be implemented for equal access to educational materials (Kleinman et al, 2020).

trAde distruPtion unemPloyment stAying At Home

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TVAccine AdVAncements disPosAble PPe isolAtion lAws/lockdown

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meaning home adaptations are in higher demand, including stairlifts, rails/grips, and alert systems (NHS, 2018).

a ge I ng P o P ulat I on

The growing impact of the ageing population is effecting the workplace with a smaller working age population and a growing dependency among older generations. The recent decline in fertility rates and the rising age of the Baby Boomer generation has increased the average age of the population and is projected to continue growing. The three macro trends chosen for this theme were: adapted workplace, healthy living and decreased marriage.

With heart disease being the leading cause of death for those aged over

80, there has been an increased trend towards healthier lifestyles (Williams, 2020). Greater knowledge of the impact diet has on health means that more people are adopting healthy eating to improve their well-being (BHF, 2020). Moreover, there is an increased trend for older generations to stay at home as opposed to moving to care homes, P E S

Despite the belief this trend has reduced the size of the working population and increased dependency, research suggests that many Baby Boomers expect to retire late, with 1 in 3 working until at least 70. As a result, many workplaces are adapting to accommodate the older generation, such as TSH Collab in Amsterdam adding ramps and supportive chairs to their offices. Moreover, older people are

increasingly competent with technology, in particular online banking in the US and WeChat in China (Berden & McGregor, 2019), increasing the trend for digital technologies. Furthermore, older consumers tend to have more disposable income, often spent on holidays, thus boosting tourism and travel industries.

More people today are choosing to start a family later or not at all, prioritising education and careers over marriage and children (ONS, 2018). This is a global trend and can be seen even in countries where marriage is commonplace, including sub-Saharan Africa (Houghton & Walker, 2019). As a result, there is an increased trend for living alone, leading to higher demand for single-use products as well as smaller houses and cars to accommodate single people. T E L

unemPloyment growing dePendency cAreer oVer fAmily

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Figure 23 increAsed life exPectAncy increAsed energy consumPtion increAsing retirement Age

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Upon completing a PESTEL analysis (Appendix B) of our initial three macro trends (Climate Change and Sustainability, Covid-19, and Ageing Population), as a group we agreed that environmentalism stood out as a significant emerging trend. This is a conclusion made from reflecting on the current state of society – through reading magazines, watching the news, and social media, the environment is a reoccurring trend with extensive research available. The fast-paced nature of sustainability, with reference to Hyperconscious Consumerism, offers a breadth of analysis that could be useful to forecast trends for a range of business sectors.

Sustainability is a significant challenge in the present day. In consequence to current and past events, an abundance of research has been conducted and produced, giving insight into the current global climate crisis, feeding information

on how to adjust our attitudes, to be more environmentally driven. When reviewing our initial three themes we found the environment always leaked into each trend, thus felt we had more to discuss and address. Upon initial consideration for the identified trend, name ideas concerned climate positive and zero waste lifestyles, developing through more in-depth research and consideration of the future to arrive at Hyperconscious Consumerism.

With the current climate around social media, trends are more conveniently transferred, offering the opportunity for our lifestyle trend to emerge and receive global support through social platforms. The recent social media

phenomenon, ‘Konmari Method’ has encouraged a minimal, need-focused lifestyle to motivate the identified trend around minimal consumption, to reduce waste and live simpler lives (Woods, 2019). A large portion of society has adopted a sustainable approach and popularised looking toward and aiming for a greener planet by altering how they live. Sustainability is a vital emerging trend, shaping everyday decisions, and is just as impactful on older generations as younger ones in adjusting norms to move towards a greener future.

Moreover, with the current COVID-19 pandemic, sustainability has undoubtedly accelerated to encourage more conscious consumerism. With travel restrictions and a greater focus on needs, as opposed to wants. Due to the damaged economy, consumers are more aware of their environmental impact and their ability to live comfortably under minimalistic lifestyles. For example, Internet Retailing (2020) found that consumers are more aware of the impact of their spending habits on the environment, with the retail industry experiencing lower demand for luxury items, with

37% avoiding buying more than they need. As a result, consumers are more prepared for and willing to adopt our identified lifestyle trend and are likely to regard it is necessary for the future of sustainability and the environment. Nevertheless, not all members of society hold the same views, and so we created a cross-case scenario Trend Cartogram to account for the opposing views held and how this may restrain future changes.

A range of methods were utilised to develop research around our chosen theme. Secondary sources included academic books and journal articles to collect information around sustainability in general. To understand consumer’s past responses, Historical Analogy was developed as a method to predict the future climate. Furthermore, primary sources were used, such as newspaper articles, environmental campaigns, and trend reports to apply more relevant and specific research. Trend Cartograms were an important method for researching our chosen theme of Hyperconscious Consumerism, with regards to Sustainable Living. Producing two Trend Cartograms, comparing the best-case scenario to the cross-case scenario, offered a visual representation of raw, strategic information to simplify our group ideas. The framework broke down areas of the trend into who (the innovators), why (the drivers), where (impact), and when (consequences) to derive at potential trend futures (what) regarding consumer behaviour patterns (Raymond, 2010). During the complete research process consideration was given to the characteristics of a good forecaster as proposed by Raymond, which includes scenario planning to prepare for future possibilities (Raymond, 2019).

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Greta sets an example for younger consumers by challenging world leaders to address environmental issues, thus “looking to the edge of popular culture” (Hur, 2020).

We found Greta Thunberg to be of great importance through her research into advancements regarding the trend. Being young and influential, emerging into the spotlight and earning a voice in a political environment, Greta sets an example for younger consumers by challenging world leaders to address environmental issues, thus “looking to the edge of popular culture” (Hur, 2020). We were also intrigued as a group, at the innovator demographic. With another of our identified influential figures being David Attenborough, we considered a broad demographic spectrum who both influence the trend and are impacted by it. Not restricted to climate change, we also explored the impact of food and world hunger activist Vandana Shiva who communicates the impact of increasing food shortages, proposing another demographic group.

With reference to Roger’s Theory of Diffusion, consumers are at different stages in terms of an adoption of trends, with innovators being the first and laggards last, adopting the trend once many consumers have moved on (Posner, 2015). This can be seen with sustainability as trends have been introduced by innovators such as home recycling and veganism as well as ethical fashion. When first established trends are often rejected or overlooked by the majority, but with time they are accepted by the mainstream. For example, zero waste consumption is now being accepted by more members of society but is not yet widely adopted. This can be seen in the consequences section of the Trend Cartogram which outlines the impact on the late majority.

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s o CI al l egal

One of the trend drivers for a move towards sustainable living is the change in attitudes regarding the environment which has led to greater social consciousness. ADEC innovations have labelled this shift ‘social sustainability’ (2020), and comment upon how this will lead to an improvement on one’s prosperity and quality of life, which could be a reason for the growth of this trend. Compliance may also be a social factor as people feel more inclined to do something if it suggested to them (McLeod, 2014). Household recycling is an example of this as, since recycling bins were commonplace in people’s homes, recycling has increased to almost 50% of all waste (Tieso, 2020).

Another driver involves UK and European law banning single-use plastic by 2021 (European Parliament, 2019). Plastics have a massive impact on the environment, with only 32% of all plastic being recycled across Europe (British Plastics Federation, 2020). Thus, displaying that too much plastic is thrown away, despite recycling initiatives. One way to combat this is through prevention, as was set out in the ‘Waste Framework Directive’, published by the European Commission (2008). Therefore, if single-use plastics are banned people are going to have to invest in reusable alternatives such as metal straws, thus forcing people into a more sustainable lifestyle, changing behaviour patterns by eliminating choice.

te C hnolog IC al

An additional driver of the move towards sustainable living is the technological advances that have occurred over the past few years, making sustainable living more convenient. One example is electric cars, which produce zero air-pollution (Earth Justice, 2020). Global electric car stock has increased by almost 5 million in the past decade (IEA, 2020), supporting their increased popularity. Another example is LED lighting, which is more energy-efficient than traditional incandescent bulbs, and by 2030 will reduce energy consumption by 40% (Rogers, 2019). LED lighting is an example of a small swap people are prepared to make in order to live a more sustainable life.

I nnovators & I n F luent I als

Two people who have been vocal about the need for more sustainable living, are Greta Thunberg and David Attenborough. Higham (2009) discusses Innovators in ‘The next big thing’ and separates innovators into ‘Professionals’ and ‘Amateurs’; Thunberg, who campaigns to raise awareness of the climate crisis (BBC, 2020) is considered an amateur, whereas Attenborough is considered a professional as a result of the extensive TV documentaries he has produced (BBC, 2020).

Higham (2009) also comments upon the people who spread the ideas of the innovators to the masses and labels them ‘Influentials’. Social Media platforms, such as Instagram are effective ways to find these influentials. Emma Slade Edmondson, and Tolmeia Gregory are two examples (Common Objective, 2020), sharing how they live their lives more sustainably. Moreover, Gen X Bea Johnson’s Zero Waste blog directs her daily patterns around preventing waste. These influentials then infiltrate consumers’ social media, thus raising awareness and desire to lead a more sustainable life.

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There is no age demographic for this trend, as the desire to be sustainable and conscious of consumerism appears in all age groups. However, those with more disposable income are more likely to be a conscious consumer as they can afford to live the often more expensive lifestyle.

Behaviourally, innovators recycle and purchase reusable alternatives for household products such as straws and paper towels to eliminate one-use disposable items. In addition, they are more conscious when shopping for clothes and food (Csutora and Vetóné Mózner, 2014), and may be more inclined to buy products with greater transparency, operating ethically to support the supply chain.

d e M ogra P h IC s

In terms of Psychographics, this group of people care about the increasing issue of climate change, and want to help in every way they can, beginning by reducing their waste and consuming less often. However, the rise in demand for sustainable products has increased the level of disingenuous, performative applications, known as greenwashing (Icarus Complex, 2019). Thus, it is more difficult to distinguish between truly sustainable products and those that do not uphold claims past face-value.

b ehav I oural

As the trend for sustainable consumption continues to grow, it is interesting to look at how it may manifest in the future within different sectors. Four of these potential future trend directions are detailed and explored below.

l IF estyle P rodu C ts

A lifestyle shift that is going to occur in the coming years as part of Hyperconscious Consumerism is the phasing out of fossil-fuel powered cars, with a ban on the sale of new combustion-engine vehicles to come into effect by 2030 (The Verge, 2020). Electric cars aren’t a new concept, but with law being introduced the percentage of electric cars on the road will inevitably increase by removing the choice for consumers, thus lowering emissions.

One way in which supermarket chains could improve their sustainability and reduce consumer waste is by creating in-store herb gardens, to allow customers to purchase only what they need, thus reducing food waste. Moreover, the removal of plastic packaging for herbs will also reduce the amount of plastic waste. This concept has already been introduced in the Dutch supermarket chain, Albert Heijn, who believe it is a “simple and effective way to cut down on plastic packaging” (Alexander, 2020).

b rands t e C hnology

One method for fast fashion brands to be more sustainable is to have customers input measurements to ensure the clothes they are ordering will fit, thus reducing the number of returns or items being left in storage. This idea has been introduced by Metail, known as MeModel (Springwise, 2020) allowing consumers to see 3D representations of how the clothing may look on them based on their body dimensions. Additional fast fashion brands such as Pretty Little Thing could adopt this model, in order to reduce the amount of returned clothes going to landfill (Constable, 2020). With the COVID-19 pandemic, this would be even more beneficial as consumers rely more on online shopping platforms as a result of store closures, preventing their ability to try on garments.

Due to the impact of washing machines and tumble driers on the environment some influentials are refusing the ownership of which and instead relying on traditional washing lines or shared laundrette facilities (Helbig, 2020). Moreover, technological advancements have included self-wash clothing using chemical coatings on fabrics to remove the need for washing machines (Verma, 2020). Future consumer trends may display the adoption of such, both for a positive environmental impact and to reduce the burden of clothes washing. This may also be part of the minimal living trend, adopted by many innovators and influentials to reduce their home capacity by owning only what they need.

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a PP end I x

a

PP end I x a : P resentat I on

The following pages encompass each slide from our group presentation from 31 October 2020 which was completed on teams and recorded for feedback. We given positive feedback regarding the visual and verbal presentation of initial research into the three mega trend identified, and we completed the recording within the 10 minutes allocated. To improve we could have used images more affectively to present the information alone as opposed to repeat the text presented, therefore, we have tried to do this in this report in order to improve.

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PESTEL is a strategic framework for analysing the external environment in which macro trends operate. Businesses have no direct control over each of political, economic, social, technological, environmental and legal aspects, but must plan for and react upon which (Posner, 2015, pp.66-67).

Political Degree of intervene from Government

Political protests around sustainability

Carrier bag charge

Environmental activists like Extinction Rebellion & youth activists like Greta Thunberg

Political unrest – threat of terrorist acts & disputes between countries Brexit, impacting taxation and exports

Unemployment increased due to pandemic US presidential election

Economic Performance relative to affluency, GDP etc.

Fast fashion is cheap but creates a throwaway society

Sustainable fashion often expensive, not everyone can afford it

Economic decline/ recession as a result of COVID-19 (LSN, 2020)

Payment support for COVID-19 business closures (Furlough Scheme & loans)

Pandemic caused reduction in disposable income due to job losses (LSN, 2020)

Rapid growth in China & India (Bughin & Woetzel, 2019)

Social Norms & values & demographic features

Changing attitudes to sustainability, reduce waste, recycling more

Rise of veganism

Conscious of health impacts of pollution

Convenience culture, stay at home to eat/shop etc. (LSN, 2020)

Increased care for health & wellbeing – demand for gyms & healthy food

More women work, demand for convenient products, time (PWC, 2020)

Uncoupled living, focus on career & start family later

Move towards greater equality & inclusion

Technological Innovation & R&D, positive or negative impact

Development of new materials to prevent/ reduce animal produce

Renewable energy sources

Use of social media by Gen Z

Manufacturing technology to reduce waste

Massproduction for lower cost products

Artificial intelligence & automation, lead to job losses & reskilling as machines are cheaper & more accurate (Bughin & Woetzel, 2019)

5G Data: faster, more reliance of online

Environmental Pollution, raw materials, climate change

Rising global temperature, melting ice caps & causing forest fires & flooding

Overflowing landfill sites

Waste disposed into the Ocean, harming animals

CSR

-Treatment of workers in factories, poor conditions, low pay, long hours

Increasing importance of sustainability

Scarcity of resources, use of renewable resources & sustainable living to save for future generations (PWC, 2020)

Circular economy & zero-waste

Lack of food production

Legal Specific laws & recent legislations

Worker’s rights prevent sweatshop production & unethical practice

Ban singleuse plastics in France (Fleming, 2020)

Reusable bags not thin plastic bags in US (Fleming, 2020)

Animal Welfare Act (2019)

Health & Safety laws

UK Slave labour –fast fashion businesses caught out for unethical treatment of workers in factory in Leicester

a PP end I x C: t rend C artogra M s

The following two double-page spreads display our two trend cartograms to represent the potential best-case and cross-case future scenarios regarding our trend. We have used both visuals and text to display our research findings and predictions based on which.

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t he C ross -C ase ’ s C enar I o

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l I st o F r e F eren C es

ADEC innovations. 2020. What is social sustainability? [Online]. [Accessed 26 November 2020]. Available from: https://www.esg.adec-innovations.com/about-us/faqs/what-is-social-sustainability/ Alexander, D. 2020. 21 Sustainability innovations that might just change the world. [Online]. [Accessed 2 December 2020]. Available from: https://interestingengineering.com/21-sustainabilityinnovations-that-might-just-change-the-world

BBC. 2020. Greta Thunberg: Who is she and what does she want? [Online]. [Accessed 30 November 2020]. Available from: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-49918719

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Figure 23: BBC. 2019. McDonald’s paper straws ‘fully recyclable’ makers say [Online]. [Accessed 19 November 2020]. Available from: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-49247049

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Figure 27: Wired. 2019. Electric Buses Globally. [Online]. [Accessed 11 December 2020]. Available from: https://www.wired.com/story/electric-buses-havent-taken-over-world/

Figure 28: Travel Earth. 2019. Plastic Waste at Festivals. [Online]. [Accessed 11 December 2020]. Available from: https://travel.earth/plastic-waste-discarded-at-glastonbury/

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