NextGen Beyond the Brand Newsletter Spring 2025

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OFFICER

Bull buying can be one of the most enjoyable and stressful decisions we make every year. We enjoy few activities more than sorting through bulls to bring you the best sets of bulls in multiple breeds that you can find. Our goal is that every bull that we sell will go out and do a solid job producing quality feeder cattle, but it leaves you with the decision of sorting between a lot of quality options.

We are true believers in performance data recording and genomic selection which provides a plethora of EPDs, weights, ratios and measurements to sort through that can be overwhelming. In Fall 2024, we introduced a star rating system to make those selection decisions easier. It is a 5-star rating system with more stars being favorable for each trait.

Hopefully those rating systems help to simplify your sort. We are excited to help you in any way with bull selection. Whether you need us to go over your closeouts, help to maximize your heterosis or design some custom indexing for your operation, we can customize to you and your cowherd’s needs to help maximize your value and profit. If you are looking for groups of 1/2 to full brothers, here is a short list of some of the larger sire groups that we are excited to share with you this spring.

Look for our catalog and videos to be out towards the end of March. Follow us on Facebook for the latest news and as always our team are just a phone call or email away to help your operation in any way we can.

See you April 17-18 in Paxico!

MAKING YOUR BEST BULL BUYING DECISIONS

Phenotype – a physical scoring by our committee of graders when sorting for the sale

Calving – a measure of a bull’s suitability to be used on heifers

Weaning – this rating takes in all measures of calving and growth to weaning. A suitable selection measure for producers that market their calves at weaning

Maternal – a multi-trait measure of the maternal value of a bull’s daughters

Terminal – a measure of post weaning performance, dry matter intake and carcass value. Suitable for use for producers that retain ownership or feed their own cattle.

Docility – scored by our committee at grading and multiple times throughout the bull’s development in our system

SALE FEATURE SIRE GROUPS

LT BADGE 9184

Badge continues to be a true herd sire. Extra hip and rib shape in his sons in a moderate package, they are a cowman’s kind of beef bull.

NG ICEMAN 934J2

This is the first offering from this Fall 2022 Flints Hill Classic sale highlight. If you are looking for extra frame and performance, this is a big outlined long sided sire group.

SVY PROFOUND 145J

The Profound’s might be the flashiest set of bulls that we will offer. They’ll make feeder calves that are marked fancy every time.

MCK FLINT ROCK 142

Flint Rock is deceased, and semen is limited but we’ll offer over a dozen sons this spring. Flint continues to be one the most consistent and soughtafter bulls in the history of Beefmasters.

NG GULFSTREAM

Several 1/2 siblings will sell to the $140,000 NG King Air. The Gulfstreams do it all from calving ease and maternal to marbling in a black hided package.

SALE FEATURE SIRE GROUPS

CF BRAVADO

There is a set of flush brothers by Bravado out of NG Flint Hills Ruby that will be in the front pens. One of the most consistent flushes of bulls that we have made.

NG BRETT 1849J5

This is the first set of sons from NG Brett and you’ll see why we have used him so heavily to replace his sire Flint Rock. They are dark colored, smooth made performance bulls

E&B WILDCAT

Several sons will be offered from this featured Genex roster member and sire of the $520,000 Powercat at Select Sires.

POSS DEADWOOD

A strong set of flush brothers sired by this $900,000 valued bull from an outcross top 1% $M cow are very exciting and favorites of early visitors

MONTANA GRASSLAND 9151

Moderate calving ease bulls with excellent Angus breed character will be highlights on sale day out of this past sale highlight from the maternally focused Montana Ranch.

Record prices for all classes of cattle were posted in 2024. My view is that the 2025 and 2026 market will be even higher.

The essence of the bullish outlook is there’s simply not enough cattle to go around. Feedlot and packing capacity exceed the available cattle supply – and the imbalance is going to get far worse in the next couple of years. Smaller calf crops, increasing heifer retention, and more packing capacity coming online this year are the

RECORD PRICES TO CONTINUE CATTLE

PRODUCER OUTLOOK IS BRIGHT

factors that will combine to make the excess even bigger. That imbalance tells us the function of the market is to ration the cattle shortage. Higher prices are the market’s mechanism to solve the problem.

The tide is slowly beginning to turn for heifer retention. There are many reasons driving the change, but the impact on supply will be a noticeable decline in offerings to feedlots, and ultimately packer buyers. Given the long lag time from holding a heifer to her calf ending up at the

packing plant, this will create a substantial drop in feeder cattle and fat cattle supply in the next couple of years. That will keep feedlots scrambling for calves and feeders, and packers bidding for a “too small” fat cattle supply. Higher prices would be expected as competition heats up.

What’s the risk to this outlook? First is an economic recession. Beef demand has been exceptionally strong in recent months. A retreat in beef demand is noted as the single biggest risk to the market and bullish outlook in 2025. Even in a macro-related downturn, the tighter supply will serve to soften the blow. Second, at some point packer margins will be squeezed

What’s the risk to this outlook? First is an economic recession. Beef demand has been exceptionally strong in recent months. A retreat in beef demand is noted as the single biggest risk to the market and bullish outlook in 2025. Even in a macro -related downturn, the tighter supply will serve to soften the blow. Second, at some point packer margins will be squeezed enough that some plants will close. That will begin to correct the excess capacity dynamic. I expect that will be the single event that tops the market.

enough that some plants will close. That will begin to correct the excess capacity dynamic. I expect that will be the single event that tops the market.

The outlook for cattle producers is bright given the declining supply in combination with strong demand up and down the supply chain. Decades of financial underperformance in the nation’s cowherd is colliding with strong demand. The fix is in higher prices that incentivizes more production and curtailing demand –and prices aren’t high enough for either yet.

West Texas can either be a garden of Eden or a brutal task master. You never know which one you’re going to encounter. The South Plains have historically been a huge grassland savannah, but the development of deep well water drilling has completely changed the landscape. What once was home to millions of buffalo, and dominated by the Comanche and Apache, is now ranched and farmed. Numerous feedyards, grow yards and dairies dot the southern plains. With the growth of cattle feeding operations and dairies over the decades, agriculture has taken the dominant role as the economic driver for the region.

This is where Mike Welch Jr. comes into the picture. The story of Welch Family Cattle Company started with 3 generations of cattlemen. Mike’s grandfather, H.L. Horney, owned and operated multiple stockyards in North Carolina from the 1960’s thru the 1980’s. Mike’s father, Mike Welch Sr., worked in the stockyards and

WELCH FAMILY CATTLE COMPANY

eventually became an order buyer. Mike Sr. bought cattle all over the country that led up to a “can’t pass up” job and partnership in southeast New Mexico in 1972. Mike Sr. raised his family on the farm, which consisted of a feedyard and dairy commodity business. After owning several feedyards, calf ranches and ranching operations, Mike Sr. and Mike Jr. started a commodity and trucking business. Triple C served the commodity needs for West Texas feedyards, as well as dairy operations in Texas and New Mexico. As the company expanded, they developed a major presence in Central and South Texas as well. Serving the commodity needs of many cattle producers with grains, proteins and forage products till this day.

The desire to get back in the cow business still burned in both Mike Sr. and Mike Jr. and so Welch Family Cattle Company was created in the early 2000’s as a cow-calf operation. The owners included Mike Sr. and wife Wanda, as well as Mike Jr., wife Deanna and their four daughters. WF Cattle Co. is not a typical ranching

operation. All cows are purchased as breds and pairs, with an emphasis on northern Angus influence. All bulls used are either NextGen Charolais or NextGen AngusX on these West Texas ranches. The ground is all leased and all cattle are daily supplemented with a ration in a very intensive grazing program. Their goal is to produce super high quality feeders that can go either North or South. I can attest to the quality. We own and have owned a bunch of them over the years.

“When my good friend and commodity broker, Brian Fox with NextGen Trading, introduced me to NextGen Cattle Company, I knew I had found the outfit with which I wanted to pursue a long term relationship. Having similar goals in the cattle business, it was an easy choice to start dealing with NextGen Cattle Company. Relationships are everything in the cattle business. There is too much hard work and capital tied up, on a daily basis, to not do business with people you trust. Derek, Damon and Brad have a “can do, let’s go make it happen” mentality when it comes to the cattle and commodity business. It’s the most positive, interactive and proactive group of cattlemen I’ve ever known.”

“As we continue to improve our cows and the quality of calves we produce, it is my hope and dream that this will continue into the 4th and 5th generation. Our 15 year old granddaughter, Rynlee, has been excited from day 1. She has a love in her heart for the cattle we raise. She is a tremendous asset, helping me sort through bull data before the sales (bull sales are the fun part!!). We have recently introduced our 2 year old grandson, Hath, to the operation. Hopefully he has the same sparkle in his eye for the cattle business. I hope this love for the cattle business passes down from my daughters and their children for generations to come. There is quite simply nothing like it.” — Mike Welch

RYAN RICE

NEXTGEN CATTLE FEEDING CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER

Most know that Southwest Kansas is concentrated with beef finishing facilities. From where we are located in Stevens County, there is 1,000,000+ head of capacity within a 60-mile radius of our feedyard. The climate, access to large quantities of feed ingredients, along with packer infrastructure make it an ideal location to finish cattle.

Along with this being an ideal climate for feeding cattle, small grain production does extremely well in this part of the country. It is not uncommon to see 225+ bushels per acre in corn production and 100+ bushels per acre in wheat production. We are big proponents of growing calves prior to introducing them to the feedyard. The access to quality wheat and triticale pasture is a benefit afforded by our geography.

We currently have approximately 3,000 head turned out on wheat pasture and the bulk of those cattle are within 20 minutes of our Riverbend feedyard. We purchase these calves from all over the country and send them to a preconditioning facility for 45-60 days, prior to sending them to wheat for 90-120 days. The preconditioning yards we utilize are tasked with lining out health and ensuring health is optimal prior to shipping. Upon arrival at the preconditioning yard, we will vaccinate and worm the calves and get them started on a grow ration. Approximately 2 weeks prior to shipping to wheat, we will brand the calves and revaccinate. Upon returning to the pen after revaccination, we introduce them to an electric fence for the remainder of their stay. We get the calves “hot-wire broke” to acclimate them prior to unloading them on a 120-acre circle of wheat. This process is critical to keeping the calves where we need them to stay.

The wheat acreage we utilize is typically drilled in mid-August and we can turn out as early as November 1. A typical year we will turn out from November 1 – December 15 and start pulling calves off February 1 – March 15. We were blessed with summer and Fall rains in 2024 and abnormally warm weather throughout the Fall. Much of the wheat was over 16” tall upon turnout. The above average temperatures have made for phenomenal grazing this Winter. During an average year we will average 2.25-2.50 lbs. per day in gain on wheat. I will not be surprised to see 2.5-3.0 lbs. gain per day this winter.

WINTER WHEAT GRAZING IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS

THURSDAY, APRIL 17, 2025

Cattle Viewing All Day

4:00 pm Industry Update

5:00–6:45 pm Food Trucks Serve Dinner

6:00–7:00 pm Entertainment by Garin Nolan Band 7:00 pm Diamonds of the Flint Hills Female Sale followed by Entertainment by Garin Nolan Band, Bar, Snacks & Cigar Roller

FRIDAY, APRIL 18, 2025

8:30–11:00 am Bloody Mary Bar and Food Trucks Serve Breakfast

11:00 am Flint Hills Spring Classic Bull Sale followed by Drinks & Food Trucks Serve Lunch drinks available during the sale

This year we will start seeing cattle come into the feedyard the first week of February and continue through mid-March. We love feeding cattle with a wheat background, not only are we supporting our local farmers, but the cattle come in ready to perform. The cattle being located close to our feedyard, we have minimal shrink coming from 20 miles away. We see good age and body condition coming in and any health issues have been resolved in the previous 150 days. The large groups we bring in allow us to weight sort at processing and create even pens. With the fully developed rumen, we can get them on finish ration quickly and see consistent closeouts with efficient gains.

We pride ourselves on purchasing calves with NextGen genetics. If you have a handful of calves or several hundred, we have programs in place to fit your operation. We would love to have the opportunity to bid on your calves and share the feeding and plant data back upon closeout.

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