A Position Statement of The Right Climate Stuff Research Team
Marty Cornell, Vice Chairman, Communications
February, 2023
Net Zero: A Hunt for Unobtainium
A Position Statement of The Right Climate Stuff Research Team
Marty Cornell, Vice Chairman, Communications
February, 2023
Net Zero
A state in which anthropogenic CO2 and CH4 going into the atmosphere
A ban on fossil fuels
are balanced by removal out of the atmosphere.
Net Zero
By 2100,Prevent 2.0 OC
1.5 OC warming from preindustrial temperature.
Net Zero
By 2100,Prevent 2.0 OC
1.5 OC warming from preindustrial temperature.
The earth has already warmed 1.1 OC.
Net Zero
+0.5 OC → Catastrophe?
By 2100,Prevent 2.0 OC 1.5industrial temperature.
The earth has already warmed 1.1 OC.
Reality: it ain’t warming like its supposed to
5yr Running mean 300200hPa Tropical Temperature Anomalies CMIP6 (Historical + ssp245 after 2014) Model Mean
average runs
hotter
reality
Model
2½ X
than
The climate crisis exists only in models, not in the real world.
9
Impact of Inflation Reduction Act
0.0009 F to 0.028 F Lower
Bjorn Lomberg, Wall Street Journel
Impact of USA Net Zero by 2050
-0.126 C in 2100
100% Renewable Electricity
-0.083 C in 2100 Ban all Fossil Fuels (including cars)
MAGICC6 Model
It’s Not About Climate Change
Re. $4.85 a gallon gasoline:
Brian Deese
1Jul22
Global head of Sustainable Investing,
"This is about the future of
the liberal world order, and we have to stand firm.“
White House National Economic Council director
The Liberal World Order Requires Ignoring Consequences
Number of People In Extreme Poverty
1.9 Billion People (36% World Population)
South Asia
Middle East and North Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
Other High Income
Europe and Central Asia
East Asia and Pacific
Sub-Saharan Africa
2 Billion 0.5 Billion
1.5 Billion
1 Billion 1990 2000 2010 2030 2020
Projection by World Bank
730 Million People (9.9% World Population)
Number of People In Extreme Poverty
1.9 Billion People (36% World Population)
Middle East and North Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
Other High Income
Europe and Central Asia
Projection by World Bank
2
0.5
1 Billion 1.5 Billion 1990 2000 2010 2030 2020
Billion
Billion
May, 2021
The Path to Net Zero
Buildings
Vehicles
Industry
Electricity
NZE Global Electricity Generation NGas Adapted from IEA Net Zero 2050, Oct21
22,780 square miles (.72% land area)
227,530 square miles (7.2% land area)
227,530 square miles (7.2% land area)
W & S Farms $3.5 Trillion HV Transmission $1.5 Trillion
Materials Intensity for Power Generation
Kg per MW
Capacity
Adapted from March, 2022
Steel, concrete, and aluminum not included
Nameplate
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 Offshore Wind Onshore Wind Solar PV Nuclear Coal CCNG
Kg/MW
Capacity
concrete, and aluminum not included
Materials Intensity for Power Generation
Nameplate
Steel,
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 Offshore Wind Onshore Wind Solar PV Nuclear Coal CCNG
Generation Kg/delivered MW Nameplate Capacity Capacity normalized to operation efficiency of unhindered CCNG Steel, concrete, and aluminum not included Delivered
Materials Intensity for Power
227,530 square miles (7.2% land area)
Metric tons Steel, concrete, and aluminum not included Adapted from Princeton E+ Pathway
Onshore
Offshore
0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 Zinc Silicon Copper Nickel Manganese Chromium Molybdenum Rare Earth Copper
NZE Material Needs by 2050, Contiguous USA
1.5 TW Solar 1.5 TW
Wind 0.2 TW
Wind
Bingham Canyon Open Pit Copper Mine Enabled by Fossil Fuels
Battery Backup for NZE U.S. Grid
250 million MWh for Contiguous 48 States
$0 $50 $100 $150 US GDP MIT 2050 Projection NREL 2050 Projection NREL 2030 Projection Gregory, Friends of Science EIA 2019 Trillion $ Adapted from Astronomical battery cost looms over “renewables”; CFACT 15Dec22, David Wojick $23T
Battery Backup for NZE U.S. Grid
250 million MWh for Contiguous 48 States
$0 $50 $100 $150 US GDP MIT 2050 Projection NREL 2050 Projection NREL 2030 Projection Gregory, Friends of Science EIA 2019 Trillion $ Adapted from Astronomical battery cost looms over “renewables”; CFACT 15Dec22, David Wojick $23T US GDP
Alex Epstein Refuting the myth that just a small area of solar panels plus storage can power the world (substack.com)
227 Tons of Earth* per 1,000 Lb. EV Battery Tons of Ore * Includes overburden removal 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Lithium Brine Cobalt Ore Nickel Ore Graphite Ore Copper Ore 30 Lbs. Lithium 60 Lbs. Cobalt 60 Lbs. Copper 190 Lbs. Graphite 130 Lbs. Nickel
Wrenches in the Net Zero Machinery
Surging coal demand
277 GW New Coal Power Capacity
Added 2020 & 2021 Under Construction
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 China India Indonesia Japan Vietnam Other
Gigawatts
Global Energy Monitor
Other Asia USA EU ROW
India
China
10,000 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 0 Million
2000 2024
tons
Wrenches in the Net Zero Machinery
Europe’s energy security wakeup call
Wrenches in the Net Zero Machinery
Disrupted supply of key materials
Vulnerabilities of Critical Materials Supply for Net Zero
➢High geographical concentration of production
Energy Transmission Materials, 2019
Extraction USA
Energy Transmission Materials, 2019
Processing
➢High geographical concentration of production
➢Long project development lead times Production
Vulnerabilities of Critical Materials Supply for Net Zero
Discovery
➢High geographical concentration of production
➢Long project development lead times
➢Declining resource quality
➢Growing scrutiny of environmental and social performance
➢Higher exposure to climate risks
➢Security of mineral supply
➢Recycling, e.g. spent batteries
➢Not in my backyard, e.g., USA
Net
Vulnerabilities of Critical Materials Supply for
Zero
Copper, Nickel, and Platinum Plus 88% of US Cobalt Reserves
Artisanal miners work at a cobalt mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo on Oct. 12, 2022. (Junior Kannah / AFP via Getty Images)
Wrenches in the Net Zero Machinery
Public awareness, (less censoring?)
Adapted from “Energy Transition”
Delusion: A Reality Reset Mark P. Mills
Embodied Emissions
EV via low-grade ores
EV Emits Less CO2
Tons CO2 per Car 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 Thousand Miles 120 0 30 60 90
Miles Driven Before an
than a Diesel Car
Embodied Emissions EV via low-grade ores
from “Energy Transition”
A Reality Reset Mark P. Mills Green Energy Isn’t Carbon Free Miles Driven Before an EV Emits Less CO2 than a Diesel Car Tons CO2 per Car 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 Thousand Miles 120 0 30 60 90 Zero Emission Vehicle
Adapted
Delusion:
Wrenches in the Net Zero Machinery Green vs. Green
NIMBY
Not Good for Birds and Bats
Not Good for Whales
Whale Migration Route Right Whale Migration Route
Right
Wrenches in the Net Zero Machinery
>>$28T USA
Wrenches in the Net Zero Machinery W & S Farms $3.5 Trillion HV Transmission $1.5 Trillion Battery Backup >>$23Trillion
Wrenches in the Net Zero Machinery
NZE $275 Trillion for physical assets, 2021 to 2050
“The cost will not be net zero”
Wrenches in the Net Zero Machinery West Virginia vs. EPA 30Jun22
Unambiguous Congressional instruction required for Executive regulations having national impact.
Climate Change Dogma Reality
Oil, Natural Gas, & Coal Dogma Reality
“What could work, however, would be to challenge the core premise of the climate alarmist movement. Learn the facts, evaluate the arguments of contrarian experts, and make up your own mind.
If you no longer believe we actually face a climate emergency, say so, without reservations, in every venue and to every person and institution you can possibly influence.
Advocate
“What could work, however, would be to challenge the core premise of the climate alarmist movement. Learn the facts, evaluate the arguments of contrarian experts, and make up your own mind.
If you no longer believe we actually face a climate emergency, say so, without reservations, in every venue and to every person and institution you can possibly influence.
Advocate
“What could work, however, would be to challenge the core premise of the climate alarmist movement. Learn the facts, evaluate the arguments of contrarian experts, and make up your own mind.
If you no longer believe we actually face a climate emergency, say so, without reservations, in every venue and to every person and institution you can possibly influence.”
Advocate
ERCOT Winter Storms Renewable Power Integration
Gregg Goodnight, TRCS Member
References
➢ NET-ZERO AMERICA: Potential Pathways, Infrastructure, and Impacts, October, 2021 Net-Zero America Project (princeton.edu)
➢ Net Zero by 2050, A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector; International Energy Abency, May, 2021 Net Zero by 2050 – Analysis – IEA
➢ https://explorer.aapg.org/story/articleid/63263/examining-the-unintended-consequences-of-energy-transition
➢ The Cost of Net Zero Electrification of the U.S.A., Ken Gregory, Friends of Science, December, 2021 The Cost of Net Zero Electrification of the U.S.A. | Friends of Science Calgary
➢ New presentation by John Christy: models for AR6 still fail to reproduce trends in tropical troposphere – Clintel
➢ The “Energy Transition” Delusion: A Reality Reset | Manhattan Institute (manhattan-institute.org); Mark P Mills, August 2022
➢ The tough calculus of emissions and the future of EVs | TechCrunch
➢ The Role of Critical Materials in Clean Energy Transitions CriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitions IEA.pdf
➢ Rare Earth Permanent Magnets Supply Chain Deep Dive Assessment U.S. Department of Energy EERE Technical Report Template (energy.gov)
➢ Biden admin issues 20-year mining ban as it turns to foreign supply chain amid green energy push | Fox News
➢ The Environmentalist Assault on Civilization › American Greatness (amgreatness.com)