Current climate debate
No disagreement:
• CO2 has been increasing
• Nearly all of the CO2 increase is man-made
• Temperature has risen ~0.85°C (1.5°F) since 1850
Serious disagreement:
• Increase in temperature is primarily due to man-made increases in CO2 (plus other greenhouse gases) OR
• Increase in temperature is driven primarily by natural forces with a small influence from man-made causes
• Are the changes very harmful or beneficial?
Sources of human carbon dioxide emissions Le Quéré C, Andres RJ, Boden T, Conway T, Houghton RA, House JI, Marland G, Peters GP, van der Werf G, Ahlström A, Andrew RM, Bopp L, Canadell JG, Ciais P, Doney SC, Enright C, Friedlingstein P, Huntingford C, Jain AK, Jourdain C (2012) The global carbon budget 1959–2011, Earth System Science Data Discussions, 5(2), pp. 1107-1157. Copernicus 10.5194/essdd-5-1107-2012 Wrightstone 2021
Carbon Dioxide Carbon emissions 1759 – 2016 Fossil-Fuel Burning Cement Manufacture and Gas Flaring 1751 - 2013 Boden TA, Marland G, Andres RJ (2016) Global CO2 emissions from Fossil-Fuel Burning Cement Manufacture and Gas Flaring 1751 - 2013. CDIAC, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Dept of Energy, Oak Ridge, TN, USA, DOI 10.3334/CDIAC/00001_V2010 Carbon emissions Wrightstone 2021
Wrightstone
800,000 years of Carbon Dioxide Antarctic Ice Cores
2021
In
Wrightstone 2021
climate science a long-term geologic context is important
Line
Fig I-13: 600 million years of CO2 data reveals current CO2 starvation Million years before present © 2017 Gregory Wrightstone Berner 2001 inconvenientfacts.xyz Average Paleozoic CO2 ~2,600 ppm
of death Berner RA, Kothavala Z (2001) GEOCARB III: A revised model of atmospheric CO2 over Phanerozoic time, IGBP PAGES and World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Data Contribution Series # 2002-051. NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA 8000 ppm 7000 4000 3000 2000 1000 5000 6000 Wrightstone 2021
Carbon Dioxide
Fig I-12: The dangerous 140-million-year decline in CO2
140 million year decline of CO2 to dangerously low levels
2017 Gregory
Berner 2001 inconvenientfacts.xyz
Berner RA, Kothavala Z (2001) GEOCARB III: A revised model of atmospheric CO2 over Phanerozoic time,
# 2002-051. NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatolo-gy
IGBP PAGES and World Data Center for Paleoclima-tology, Data Contribution Series
Program, Boulder CO, USA.
Wrightstone 2021
©
Wrightstone
1.2 degrees C
CO2 vs. Temperature
Satellite Temperature
33 year cooling trend just as CO2 was ramping up
Source temperature data: HadCRUT4 (2017) The Hadley Climate Research Unit (HadCRUT4) annual global mean surface temperature dataset, http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/data/current/download.html
Source CO2 data Boden TA, Marland G, Andres RJ (2016) Global CO2 emissions from Fossil-Fuel Burning Cement Manufacture and Gas Flaring 1751 - 2013. CDIAC, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Dept of Energy, Oak Ridge, TN, USA,
Longer term perspective… Beginning of modern warming trend: 1695 Beginning of warming: 1695
Parker DE, Legg TP, Folland CK (1992) A new daily Central England Temperature Series, 1772 – 1991. Int. J. Clim., Vol 12, pp 317–342, www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs.
© 2017 Gregory Wrightstone
© 2017 Gregory Wrightstone
Oerlemans 2005
inconvenientfacts.xyz
Extreme Weather
© 2017 Gregory Wrightstone
Oerlemans 2005
inconvenientfacts.xyz
Virginia Avg. Mean Temperature
Virginia Avg. Maximum Temperature
Virginia Avg. Minimum Temperature
Virginia % of days above 100oF
Virginia % of nights below 20oF
Monthly Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index (PHDI), 1895-present.
Virginia Avg. Precipitation
Virginia Avg. Minimum Temperature
Up goes CO2 & temperature… Up goes food production
Corn production in America
Virginia Avg. Minimum Temperature
© 2017 Gregory Wrightstone
Oerlemans 2005
inconvenientfacts.xyz
There is no unusual or unprecedented warming
Heat waves have been declining
Severe weather is not increasing
Crop and forest growth are increasing
Droughts are in decline
There is no increase in hurricanes
Complete elimination of carbon dioxide emissions within Virginia will have an impact that is so close to zero that it is meaningless
© 2017 Gregory Wrightstone
Oerlemans 2005 inconvenientfacts.xyz
In short, there is no climate crisis and any attempts to eliminate CO2 via regulation or taxation are simply “solutions in search of a problem.”
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Conclusion\
Life is Good & Getting Better
