Tokyo
• Robustdemand from3PLsandonlineretailers.
• Overallvacancyincreasesforthefirst timeintwoquarters.
• Averagerentsgrowmoderately.
Strong demand from3PLsandonline retailers,coupled withmajor newsupply, sawnetabsorptionreacharobust448,000sqminQ3 2024.Foryeartodate,thefigurewasmorethan1,251,000sqm.As transportcostsrise,demand forproperties withgood accesstothe citycentre isstrong, whileproperties infringe areaswithhigher transportcoststothecity centre arestruggling.
Newsupplytotalled 566,000sqminQ32024,increasing totalstockby 3%q-o-q and11%y-o-y. Sixfacilities,including MFLPLOGIFRONT Tokyo Itabashi(NLA219,000sqm), HulicLogisticsHashimoto(NLA 55,000sqm)andCBREIMNoda(NLA98,000sqm),enteredthemarket. ThevacancyrateinGreaterTokyo stood at9.9%forQ32024, increasing30bpsq-o-q and230bpsy-o-y. Thevacancy rateinthe Bayareafellto8.1%,decreasing 10bpsq-o-q, whileTokyo Inland reached 10.6%,increasing by40bpsq-o-q.
GrossrentsinGreaterTokyo averaged JPY4,687pertsubo,permonth inQ32024,increasing by1.1%q-o-q and2.3%y-o-y. Rents intheBay
areaincreased0.5%q-o-q and1.4%q-o-q intheInland area, reflecting new completions withrelativelyhighrents.
CapitalvaluesinGreaterTokyo hasincreased by0.8%q-o-q andby 1.6%y-o-y inQ32024,reflecting astablecaprateandrentgrowth. A notablesalestransactioninvolved GICacquiringDPLYokohama Totsuka.
Outlook
Asdemand continues togrow andconstruction costsrise,overall rentsareexpected togrowmoderately; however, given thehigher vacancy rate,rentsarelikelytobeunder downward pressureinsome Inlandareas.According toOxfordEconomics, thelong-term interest rateisexpected toriseforthenext fewyears.However, thereisstrong investment demand, especiallyfromcoreinvestors. Capitalvalues areexpected togrowascaprateswillremainrelativelystableand rentswillincrease.
Fundamentals
Note:TokyologisticsreferstotheGreaterTokyoprimelogisticsmarket.Dataisonan NLAbasis.
Historicalsupplyanddemandtrends
(thousands)
Research
TokyoLogistics MarketDynamics Q32024
JonesLangLaSalleK.K.
Tokyo Headquarters
KioiTower, Tokyo Garden Terrace Kioicho
1-3Kioi-cho Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 102-0094
+81343611800
Kansai
Nippon Life
Yodoyabashi Building 3-5-29KitahamaChuo-ku, Osaka541-0041
+81676628400
Fukuoka
DaihakataBldg. 2-20-1Hakata-ekimae, Hakata-ku,Fukuoka-shi
Fukuoka812-0011
+81922336801
Nagoya
JPTowerNagoya 1-1-1Meieki, Nakamura-ku,Nagoya-shi
Aichi450-6321
+81528563357
Formoreinformation,pleasecontact
ManabuTaniguchi
Senior Director
Research-Japan manabu.taniguchi@jll.com
COPYRIGHT ©JONESLANGLASALLEIP,INC.2024
Thisreporthasbeenpreparedsolelyforinformationpurposesanddoesnotnecessarilypurporttobeacompleteanalysisofthetopicsdiscussed,whichareinherentlyunpredictable. It has been based on sources we believe to be reliable, but we have not independently verified those sources and we do not guarantee that the information in the report is accurate or complete. Any views expressed in the report reflect our judgment at this date and are subject to change without notice. Statements that are forward-looking involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause future realities to be materially different from those implied by such forward-looking statements Advice we give to clients in particularsituationsmaydifferfromtheviewsexpressed inthisreport. Noinvestment orotherbusinessdecisions shouldbemade basedsolelyontheviewsexpressed inthisreport.