Tokyo
• Continued ExpansionofE-Commerceand3PLDemand.
• Overallvacancydecreases butremains above9%.
• Averagerentgrowsmoderately.
Demand from3PLsandonline retailerspushednetabsorptionto 221,000sqminQ42024.Infull-year2024,thefigurewas1.5million sqm.Compared to2023,demand hasfalleninlinewithlesssupply. Astransportcostsrise,demand isstrongforproperties closetothe citycentre andwithshorttransportation distances,whileproperties infringe areaswithhighertransportcoststothecity centre are struggling.
Newsupplytotalled 152,000sqminQ42024,increasing totalstockby 0.7%q-o-q and9.3%y-o-y. Twofacilities,LogiSquare FujiminoBbldg (NLA101,000sqm)andLogicross Atsugi3(NLA51,000sqm),entered themarket.Botharelocated intheInland area.Thevacancyratein GreaterTokyo stoodat9.5%forQ42024,decreasing 40bpsq-o-q and increasing140bpsy-o-y. Thevacancy rateintheBayareafellto7.3%, decreasing 90bpsq-o-q, Tokyo Inlandfellto10.4%,decreasing by20 bpsq-o-q.
GrossrentsinGreaterTokyo averaged JPY4,688pertsubopermonth inQ42024,flatq-o-q andup1.8%y-o-y. Newproperties withhigh rentspushedtheaveragesup,whileexistingproperties withvacant spacespulledthemdown, resultinginoverallflatrents.Capital valuesinGreaterTokyo increased 0.1%q-o-q and1.3%y-o-y inQ4 2024,reflecting stablecapratesandrentgrowth. Anotable sales transactioninvolved Nippon LifeInsurance, whichacquireda portfolio withthreeproperties fromGLP.
Outlook
Asdemand continues togrow andconstruction costsrise,overall rentsareexpected togrowmoderately; however, given thehigher vacancy rate,rentsareunder downward pressureinsomeInland areas.Thelong-term interestrateisexpected toriseover thenextfew years.However, thereisstrong investment demand, especiallyfrom core investorssuchasinsurancecompanies. Capitalvaluesare expected togrowasrentsgrow.
Fundamentals
Note:TokyologisticsreferstotheGreaterTokyoprimelogisticsmarket.Dataisonan NLAbasis.
Historicalsupplyanddemandtrends
TokyoLogistics MarketDynamics Q42024
JonesLangLaSalleK.K.
Tokyo Headquarters
KioiTower, Tokyo Garden Terrace Kioicho
1-3Kioi-cho Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 102-0094
+81343611800
Kansai
Nippon Life
Yodoyabashi Building 3-5-29KitahamaChuo-ku, Osaka541-0041
+81676628400
Fukuoka
DaihakataBldg. 2-20-1Hakata-ekimae, Hakata-ku,Fukuoka-shi
Fukuoka812-0011
+81922336801
Nagoya
JPTowerNagoya 1-1-1Meieki, Nakamura-ku,Nagoya-shi
Aichi450-6321
+81528563357
Formoreinformation,pleasecontact
ManabuTaniguchi
Senior Director
Research-Japan manabu.taniguchi@jll.com
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