Fukuoka
• Newsupplyoutpaces absorption, driving vacancyrateshigher
• Averagerentssoftenmarginallyfollowing rental adjustmentsatselectproperties
• Newsupplyexpectedin2026–2027couldincreasevacancyrisks
In3Q2025,theGreaterFukuokalogisticsmarketsawnew supply exceed netabsorption. Newcompletions totalledapproximately 80,000sqmagainstnetabsorption ofjust4,000sqmduring the quarter.
Thecompletion ofLogistationFukuokaOgoribroughttotalstockto 1,688,000sqm, an11.0%increasey-o-y. Consequently, thevacancy rateinGreaterFukuokaroseto7.5%,up440bpsq-o-q and200bpsyo-y. However, thisincreasewasprimarilydriven bynew supply properties, whileoccupancy atexistingfacilitiesremained robust.
GrossrentinGreaterFukuokawasJPY3,547pertsubopermonth, down 0.1%q-o-q butup1.8%y-o-y. Rentaladjustmentsatselect properties toalignwithlocalmarketratesresultedinmarginal declines, thoughoverallmarketrentlevels remained stable.Some areaswithnew supplyalsorecorded rentincreases.
Investment yieldscontinued toremain flat.Despitesomerental adjustmentactivity,capitalvaluesforlogisticsfacilitiesmaintained
elevated levels.Investor interestremainsstrong, butinvestment opportunities areextremely limited.
Outlook:
Vacancyratesareexpected toimprove graduallyasleasingactivity progresses. Multipleinquiriesaboutnewdevelopments before completion, particularlyforhigh-specification properties withcold storagecapabilitiesandrampaccess,areexpected tounderpin marketdemand.
However, properties withsuboptimal roadaccessorlocation constraints mayexperience leasingchallenges, leadingtorent polarisationbasedonlocation andspecifications. From2026to2027, selectivedemand expansion centred ondistributionandcoldstorage facilitiesisexpected tocontinue, withtheoverallmarkettransitioning fromastablegrowthphasetoarecovery phase.
Capitalvaluesareforecasttocontinuerisinginlinewithrentalgrowth.
Fundamentals
Note:FukuokalogisticsreferstotheGreaterFukuokaprimelogisticsmarket.Datais onanNLAbasis.
Historicalsupplyanddemandtrends
FukuokaLogistics
MarketDynamics Q32025
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ManabuTaniguchi
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Research-Japan manabu.taniguchi@jll.com
YokoYamada Manager
Research-Japan yoko.yamada@jll.com
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