ITJEMAST V11(9) 2020 by TuEngr.com

Volume 11 Issue 9 (2020) ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642

http://TuEngr.com INCORPORATION OF ISLAMIC ARCHITECTURAL FEATURES IN NEPALESE ARCHITECTURE THE EPIDEMIC COVID-19 OUTBREAK AND ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN IN DEVELOPING ASIA: A REVIEW AN INVESTIGATION OF CAPABILITY OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE APPROACH IN DROUGHT FORECAST NEXUS AMONG SOCIAL SUSTAINABLE PERFORMANCE, SOCIAL SUSTAINABLE SUPPLY CHAIN PRACTICES AND OPERATION PERFORMANCE: DOES THE LONG-TERM ORIENTATION MATTER? HERDING BEHAVIOUR IN EMERGING MARKET: EVIDENCE FROM PAKISTAN STOCK EXCHANGE A PROTECTION SHIELD AGAINST ELECTROMAGNETIC FIELDS OF TRANSFORMER SUBSTATIONS IN RAIL TRANSPORT IMPACTS OF DEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLES ON CAUSES AND OUTCOMES OF OCCUPATIONAL STRESS: CASE OF JUDICIARY IN KPK PAKISTAN

FACTORS AFFECTING REQUIREMENTS ENGINEERING IN AGILE SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT: A SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS NEXUS OF FINANCIAL REPORTING QUALITY AND INVESTMENT EFFICIENCY EXPERIENCING GNSS ATLAS L-BAND SERVICE IN THAILAND EFFECTS OF SOIL DOMAIN SIZE ON TORSIONAL RESPONSE OF OFFSHORE PLATFORM GENDER ROLE STEREOTYPING AND ENTREPRENEURIAL INTENTION AMONG SAUDI FEMALES DETERMINANTS OF CAPITAL STRUCTURE: EVIDENCE FROM VIETNAM INDUSTRIAL FIRMS SPACE SYNTAX ANALYSIS ON INDOOR ARENA’S LAYOUT PLAN OF SPICE ARENA, PENANG BANK COMPETITION AND STABILITY RELATIONSHIP: EVIDENCE FROM SELECTED ECONOMIES OF SOUTH ASIAN REGION A REVIEW ON BIOMASS GASIFICATION FOR FUEL CELLS A STUDY ON DISABLED POPULATION IN RUSSIA AND KURGAN REGION DISSECTING NEW YORK TIMES AND THE HINDU PERSPECTIVE ON WAR ON TERROR MOOC-BASED FOR SCIENCE OF MEDICINE TEACHING TECHNOLOGICAL TOOLS FOR DATA SECURITY IN THE TREATMENT OF DATA RELIABILITY IN BIG DATA ENVIRONMENTS URBAN DESIGN ELEMENTS’ ANALYSIS OF BANDAR ENSTEK, NILAI NEGERI SEMBILAN, MALAYSIA

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

International Editorial Board

Editor-in-Chief Ahmad Sanusi Hassan, PhD Professor Universiti Sains Malaysia, MALAYSIA

Executive Editor Boonsap Witchayangkoon, PhD Associate Professor Thammasat University, THAILAND

Editorial Board:

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Mohamed Gadi (University of Nottingham, UNITED KINGDOM) Professor Dr.Hitoshi YAMADA (Yokohama National University, JAPAN) Professor Dr. Chuen-Sheng Cheng (Yuan Ze University, TAIWAN ) Professor Dr.Mikio SATOMURA (Shizuoka University, JAPAN) Professor Dr.Chuen-Sheng Cheng (Yuan Ze University, TAIWAN) Emeritus Professor Dr.Mike Jenks (Oxford Brookes University, UNITED KINGDOM ) Professor Dr.I Nyoman Pujawan (Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology, INDONESIA) Professor Dr.Toshio YOSHII (EHIME University, JAPAN) Professor Dr.Neven Duić (University of Zagreb, CROATIA) Professor Dr.Dewan Muhammad Nuruzzaman (University Malaysia Pahang MALAYSIA) Professor Dr.Masato SAITOH (Saitama University, JAPAN)

Scientific and Technical Committee & Editorial Review Board on Engineering, Technologies and Applied Sciences:

Associate Prof. Dr. Paulo Cesar Lima Segantine (University of São Paulo, BRASIL) Associate Prof. Dr. Kurt B. Wurm (New Mexico State University, USA ) Associate Prof. Dr. Truong V.B.Giang (Vietnam National University, Hanoi, VIETNAM) Associate Prof. Dr. Fatemeh Khozaei (Islamic Azad University Kerman Branch, IRAN) Assistant Prof.Dr. Zoe D. Ziaka (International Hellenic University, GREECE) Associate Prof.Dr. Junji SHIKATA (Yokohama National University, JAPAN) Assistant Prof.Dr. Akeel Noori Abdul Hameed (University of Sharjah, UAE) Assistant Prof.Dr. Rohit Srivastava (Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, INDIA) Assistant Prof. Dr.Muhammad Yar Khan (COMSATS University, Pakistan) Assistant Prof. Dr. David Kuria (Kimathi University College of Technology, KENYA ) Dr. Mazran bin Ismail (Universiti Sains Malaysia, MALAYSIA ) Dr. Salahaddin Yasin Baper (Salahaddin University - Hawler, IRAQ ) Dr. Foong Swee Yeok (Universiti Sains Malaysia, MALAYSIA) Dr.Azusa FUKUSHIMA (Kobe Gakuin University, JAPAN) Dr.Yasser Arab (Ittihad Private University, SYRIA) Dr.Arslan Khalid (Shandong University, CHINA)

:: International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies

Volume 11 Issue 9 (2020) http://TuEngr.com

ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642

FEATURE PEER-REVIEWED ARTICLES

FACTORS AFFECTING REQUIREMENTS ENGINEERING IN AGILE SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT: A SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS

11A9A

NEXUS OF FINANCIAL REPORTING QUALITY AND INVESTMENT EFFICIENCY

11A9B

EXPERIENCING GNSS ATLAS L-BAND SERVICE IN THAILAND

11A9C

EFFECTS OF SOIL DOMAIN SIZE ON TORSIONAL RESPONSE OF OFFSHORE PLATFORM

11A9D

GENDER ROLE STEREOTYPING AND ENTREPRENEURIAL INTENTION AMONG SAUDI FEMALES

11A9E

DETERMINANTS OF CAPITAL STRUCTURE: EVIDENCE FROM VIETNAM INDUSTRIAL FIRMS

11A9F

SPACE SYNTAX ANALYSIS ON INDOOR ARENA’S LAYOUT PLAN OF SPICE ARENA, PENANG

11A9G

BANK COMPETITION AND STABILITY RELATIONSHIP: EVIDENCE FROM SELECTED ECONOMIES OF SOUTH ASIAN REGION

11A9H

A REVIEW ON BIOMASS GASIFICATION FOR FUEL CELLS

11A9I

A STUDY ON DISABLED POPULATION IN RUSSIA AND KURGAN REGION

11A9J

DISSECTING NEW YORK TIMES AND THE HINDU PERSPECTIVE ON WAR ON TERROR

11A9K

MOOC-BASED FOR SCIENCE OF MEDICINE TEACHING

11A9L

TECHNOLOGICAL TOOLS FOR DATA SECURITY IN THE TREATMENT OF DATA RELIABILITY IN BIG DATA ENVIRONMENTS

11A9M

URBAN DESIGN ELEMENTSâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; ANALYSIS OF BANDAR ENSTEK, NILAI NEGERI SEMBILAN, MALAYSIA

11A9N

INCORPORATION OF ISLAMIC ARCHITECTURAL FEATURES IN NEPALESE ARCHITECTURE

11A9O

THE EPIDEMIC COVID-19 OUTBREAK AND ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN IN DEVELOPING ASIA: A REVIEW

11A9P

AN INVESTIGATION OF CAPABILITY OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE APPROACH IN DROUGHT FORECAST

11A9Q

NEXUS AMONG SOCIAL SUSTAINABLE PERFORMANCE, SOCIAL SUSTAINABLE SUPPLY CHAIN PRACTICES AND OPERATION PERFORMANCE: DOES THE LONG-TERM ORIENTATION MATTER?

11A9R

HERDING BEHAVIOUR IN EMERGING MARKET: EVIDENCE FROM PAKISTAN STOCK EXCHANGE

11A9S

A PROTECTION SHIELD AGAINST ELECTROMAGNETIC FIELDS OF TRANSFORMER SUBSTATIONS IN RAIL TRANSPORT

11A9T

IMPACTS OF DEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLES ON CAUSES AND OUTCOMES OF OCCUPATIONAL STRESS: CASE OF JUDICIARY IN KPK PAKISTAN

11A9U

Contacts: Professor Dr.Ahmad Sanusi Hassan (Editor-in-Chief), School of Housing, Building and Planning, UNIVERSITI SAINS MALAYSIA, 11800 Minden, Penang, MALAYSIA. Tel: +60-4-653-2835 Fax: +60-4-657 6523, Sanusi@usm.my, Editor@TuEngr.com Associate Professor Dr.Boonsap Witchayangkoon (Executive Editor), Thammasat School of Engineering, THAMMASAT UNIVERSITY, Klong-Luang, Pathumtani, 12120, THAILAND. Tel: +66-2-5643005 Ext 3101. Fax: +66-25643022 DrBoonsap@gmail.com, Editor@TuEngr.com Managing Office TUENGR Group, 88/244 Moo 3, Moo Baan Saransiri, Klong#2, KlongLuang, P h i 12120 THAILAND T l/Wh A 66 995535450 Side images are high quality delicious pineapple gardens, grown in Thailand.

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A9A

FACTORS AFFECTING REQUIREMENTS ENGINEERING IN AGILE SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT: A SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS Muhammad Ali Abid 1

, Zia Ud Din , Muhammad Ijaz Khan , Tariq Naeem

Institute of Computing and Information Technology, Gomal University, Dera Ismail Khan, PAKISTAN.

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 16 January 2020 Received in revised form 05 March 2020 Accepted 10 March 2020 Available online 24 March 2020.

Requirements Engineering (RE) has been considered as agile software development initial routes that include system stakeholders in problem analysis iterative process, elicitation requirements, specification, and validation. A successful project is often dominated by the RE process. Numerous techniques about requirement engineering practices are existent to ensure that requests are complete from each Keywords: dimension. This paper presents an exposition of requirements Requirements Engineering (RE); Agile engineering challenges as well as complexities, beset on large software Requirement Engineering research division. In this drive, developing requirements is a Models (AREM); challenging undertaking that helps in identifying the related issues. In Traditional Models; RE, the involved events are defined and facets of an iterative procedure Agile RE practices; are offered. Removing complexities from AREM is a very tedious and IEEE database; ACM laborious task. We pointed out those complexities who dominate the database; Springer REM, badly affect the Agile Requirement Engineering Model towards database; Elsevier success. If we omit the pointed complexities or have care during the RE database; Science direct model development, then we achieve as we desire accordingly. database. Disciplinary: Information Technology, Software Engineering. ©2020 INT TRANS J ENG MANAG SCI TECH.

1. INTRODUCTION Many organizations, in the modern era, are working in an agile environment to ensure the provision of high‐quality fast software. In this regard, in 2001, seventeen people produced the manifesto of the Agile Software Development (ASD) in the USA (Utah), as representatives from diverse renowned organizations like extreme programming, scrum, the crystal family of the methodologies, Kanban and dynamic development systems method and feature-driven development. ASD focuses upon fast recapitulations, causing slight and recurrent releases in the development process and considered the substantial exit from document-driven heavyweight methodologies for software development. Agile development in no-way taken as a methodology in itself. This “agile development” is considered as “umbrella term” that explains multiple Agile methodologies. Four *Corresponding author (M.Ali Abid). E-mail: abidawan.gu@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering,

Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9A http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9A.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.163

core values are provided by agile manifesto those are assorted as follows (Abrahamsson, 2002)  Working software through inclusive documentation;  Individuals interaction through tools and processes;  Retorting to alterations through subsequent planning;  Customer cooperation through indenture negotiation. Requirement engineering is considered to be a cardinal area in software development. A successful project is often dominated by the Requirements Engineering (RE) process. Requirements elicitation, documentation, analysis, management, and validation are vital parts of the traditional software engineering (Sommerville et al., 1998). The requirement stands for and what is to be done, but nothing is mentioned about the implementation. Numerous techniques about RE practices occur to ensure that supplies are consistent, relevant and comprehensively completed (Inayat et al., 2014). The sole aim of RE is to show prior the system development becomes functional. It is intending to stop costly rework. However, upfront requirements specification and gathering exertions are time-consuming and limited scope is left to enlist requirements changing in the cycle of development. The organization of software development deals often with requests that change rapidly and go out of use before the project gets completed. The stakeholder preferences, due to quick alterations in viable threats, market pressures and development technology reduce the pre-specified inappropriate requirements. Agile methods are very much liked by scholars and practitioners. The regular feedback from the stakeholder requirements come up throughout the development process. This is how the RE process of Agile software differs from that of traditional development. Varied groups of the people hailing from different organizational and individual goals, social positions, hold a stake in a project. The requirements development processes differ vastly in Agile as it depends upon the people who are involved (Pandey et al., 2010). The overall knowledge respecting the requirements development methods is of great importance for the engineers to predict the requirements development process and choose/select the proper method. Some Agile requirement collection techniques are like user stories, prototyping, joint application design, interviews and brainstorming (Grau et al., 2013). There are many good practices of requirement engineering which make rich Agile approaches with benefits and challenges. Communication (face to face) specification (over-written) is advantageous because communication (informal) checks the requisites for the approval processes and time-wasting documentation that are thought to be irrelevant, especially with evolving requirements. But various organizations described that attaining customer representation onsite is problematic in this regard. When different groups are involved (more than one customer) and each of them concerned with different system aspects then it is challenging to attaining compromise or consensus in diminutive development life-cycle. The iterative RE has two advantages as firstly, it makes the extra satisfactory association with customers and secondly, the requirements are clearer and comprehensible. It has three main defies likewise, as firstly, it is schedule and cost estimated and secondly, the challenge is minimal documentation. While, when breakdown communication happens, the absence of documents may cause a variety of complications. The third challenge is the neglect of requirements (non-functional) like maintainability, scalability, performance, safety, or portability (Sillitti & Succi, 2005). The requirement prioritizations are extreme since consumers are convoluted in the change

Muhammad Ali Abid, Zia Ud Din, Muhammad Ijaz Khan, Tariq Naeem

process. If continuous reprioritization is not practiced with care, it will lead to unpredictability. Thus, managing changes towards requirements over persistent scheduling minimizes largely the requisite for main changes but redesigning of architecture increases the project cost. The prototypes are used to attain customer quick response on requirements however in the production model, many organizations highlighted the jeopardies for positioning prototypes. Test-driven Development (TDD) is used to internment wide-ranging requirement and documentation design. A big challenge to TDD’s adoption is that adopters are not used to reducing tests in writing before coding. Most of the adopters in the study believe that they do not consistently adopt this repetition for discipline demands. The acceptance tests and use review consultations provide benefits and include opportunities to assess whether the project is according to the target, increasing consumer confidence and trust in teams and recognize difficulties during the process of development. The agile rehearses underline recognition challenging, some organizations find executing like testing arduous and hard because of the access exertion to the clienteles those who mature these assessments. Consequently, numerous organizations use the quality assessment personnel to assist the clientele to mature these prerequisite tests (Kumar et al., 2013).

2. LITERATURE REVIEW RE is of unique importance in all software development processes and the ASD among the software organizations has been popularly developed. However, the role of RE in Agile development has not been studied in depth. Requirement engineering in Agile consist of five major focuses.

2.1 GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF RE Few researchers explain Agile approaches to requirements elicitation and management. Regular interactions with customers are focused to add new requirements and discard outdated requirements. Researchers believe that requirements can be created through collection and prioritization activities on the outset of each iteration and Agile systems can effectively manage the requirements in lesser groups instead of large groups (Cao & Ramesh, 2008; Sillitti & Succi, 2005). Certain suggestions are there that these requirements must be collected from various interviews and stakeholders’ viewpoints be utilized. The confirmation of initial descriptions of requirements and NFRs included has been proposed (Zhu, 2009). The user stories are the points of the initial requirements gleaning and processes development in Agile systems. The preliminary requirement is starting points and it is probable to enlarge further requirements as others are identified around the products. Likewise, “I will know it when I see it (IKIWISI)” (Bose et al., 2008) has grown in its importance as a required method. An initial form of product develops archetype however; the agile systems are such as that the customers feel inclined towards IKIWISI.

2.2 TRADITIONAL RE vs AGILE RE Agile methods are considered to be people-oriented instead of process-oriented and also adaptive instead of the projective (Boehm, 2000; Paetsch et al., 2003). Major variance amid traditional and Agile means is client participation in the development procedure. It is concluded that Agile methods in small projects effectively manage requirements however not in outsized projects. *Corresponding author (M.Ali Abid). E-mail: abidawan.gu@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering,

Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9A http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9A.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.163

Large projects are managed by traditional methods soundly (Cao & Ramesh, 2008). The latest research-based on case study outcomes revealed that on large Agile adopting context, scattered projects develop worth, agree for the change in the requirements and enhances customer satisfaction as compared to the traditional development methodologies developed for the same purpose (Racheva et al., 2010).

2.3 ISSUES AND BENEFITS OF AGILE RE An analysis of 16 organizations of software development underlined the advantages and disadvantages 7 Agile requirements engineering practices: communication (faceâ&#x20AC;?toâ&#x20AC;?face) over specifications (written), requirements engineering (iterative), prioritization (requirements) drives risky, the requirements managing changes over consistent prototyping, planning, test development determined, reviewing meetings and acceptance tests (Kumar et al., 2013). Agile requirement engineering activities are talked about and difficulties of apiece activities are portrayed, remedy and solution of these difficulties are sorted out. Efficient applications of RE practice in Agile requirements are found out. Likewise, the traceability amid Agile artifacts software is not lucidly described. The balance between agility and stability within the development team and customer remains another challenge (Fowler, 2001; Lucia & Qusef, 2010). A review of challenges and their solutions from 2007-2012 has been presented and it is concluded that the communication, coordination, collaboration, and differences (cultural) are main tasks of Agile distributed development (Svensson et al., 2008).

2.4 RE TECHNIQUES IN AGILE Various approaches for requirement elicitation in Agile like customersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; participation in shared development application sessions, modeling, prioritization, brainstorming, interviews have been proposed (Boehm, 2000). A summary of RE techniques has been provided. UnsTable requirements are dealt in a better way by Agile. Also, two methods for requirement elicitation user stories and prototyping are discussed (Grau et al., 2013; Bjarnason et al., 2011). The Communications serves in Agile an important RE practice between developer and customer (Kumar, 2013). A systematic review of literature during past decades, (2002 & 2013) has recognized seventeen Agile RE practices likewise customer involvement, communication (face-to-face), iterative supplies, user stories, change management, requirements prioritization, prototyping, cross-functional teams-testing afore coding, modeling desires, requirements management, the acceptance tests, and review meetings, shared conceptualizations, code refactoring, continuous and retrospectives planning and requirements analysis pairing (Rizvi, 2013).

2.5 TOOLS AND MODELS FOR RE IN AGILE An Agile model, with four abstraction levels, has been presented to integrate the traditional engineering requirements in an agile environment. The researchers investigated probability by taking the case company to hold engineering requirements in a scrum situation (Papadopoulos, 2015). In this regard, no real process exists for the agile method suggested to adapt the requirement engineering. To surmount this impediment, it is suggested to adopt the requirements model group to an agile setting so that to construct an agile requirement engineering procedure. The hybrid model namely agile requirements model generation is the lenient organized course that paves way for Agile intents

Muhammad Ali Abid, Zia Ud Din, Muhammad Ijaz Khan, Tariq Naeem

approach. Thus, this model amalgamates the superlative structures of Agile software development and the requirements generation model (Tomayko, 2002). The important mechanism of Agile is famous as reprioritization which helps and assists in accommodating unstable requirements. The conceptual model based on multiple case studies has also been derived. This model helps us to comprehend the iteration prioritization process this model answers questions as to what are cardinal concepts when requirements prioritization is brought under consideration (Soundararajan et al., 2009).

3. RESEARCH DESIGN In this connection, the literature systematic review is piloted systematically by succeeding the guidelines set to “collect & analyze” all accessible confirmation around the particular demand in the repeatable and unbiased manner. Therefore, the aim is to meet the most relevant literature to requirement engineering, by viewing out the factors which are the causes of the failure of the Requirement Engineering Models. The following steps will be performed during this SLR.

3.1 RESEARCH QUESTION This study is mainly focused on the notion that what are the factors affecting the requirement engineering model in ASD?

3.2 SEARCH STRATEGY AND QUERY STRING For this review, the search standards used involves two measures likewise C1 & C2, which are well-defined with the following descriptions like C1 is the sequence fabricated for keywords towards methods for software agile development like extreme programming, agile, agility, scrum, test-driven development, development feature-driven, Kanban and lean. While, C2 is the string keywords made-up linked with requirements engineering like requirement, user story, requirements engineering as well as features.

3.3 SEARCH TERMS Table 1 shows the major keywords concerning better validate the concepts through existing research studies. Using the below keywords, the following search query is made. All the keywords and their alternate terms are logically ORed together and then logically ANDed to form the query search. The AND Software (agility OR agile OR ‘‘XP’’ OR scrum OR FDD OR extreme programming OR feature-driven OR TDD OR feature-driven development OR test-driven OR development test-driven OR Kanban OR lean) AND (requirements OR requirements engineering OR feature OR user story OR prioritization).

3.4 PRIMARY AND SECONDARY SEARCH STRATEGIES The above-elaborated query has been applied to well-known databases. Date filter is applied since 2001 as an agile manifesto was introduced in 2001. Search Results from each database were kept in a separate file. At the results of all databases were combined and removed duplicate results. Eventually, we got a total of 211 papers. The detail of the search is listed in Table 2.

Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9A http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9A.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.163

Table 1: The Concepts through Existing Research Keywords Agile Extreme Programming Scrum Feature Driven Development Kanban Dynamic Systems Development Method Lean Test Driven Development Requirement Requirement Engineering Requirement Modeling User Story

References Sillitti & Succi, 2005; Bose et al., 2008; Soundararajan & Arthur, 2009; Fowler, 2001) Pandey at al., 2010; Bose, 2008; Sillitti & Succi, 2005; Paetsch, 2003; Fowler, 2001) Cao & Ramesh, 2008; Paetsch, 2003; Racheva, 2010; Inayat, 2014; Bose, 2008;) Grau et al., 2013; Zhu, 2009; Bose et al., 2008; Sommerville & Kotonya, 1998; Pressman, 2005). Cao & Ramesh, 2008; Abrahamsson, 2002; Pandey, 2010; Kumar, 2013; Bose, 2008; Tomayko, 2002). Abrahamsson, 2002; Pandey, 2010; Boehm, 2000; Paetsch, 2003; Bose, 2008; Fowler, 2001; Soundararajan & Arthur, 2009). Paetsch, 2003; Bjarnason, 2011; Inayat, 2014; Sommerville & Kotonya, 1998; Lucia & Qusef, 2010; Zainab et al., 2017). Kumar et al., 2013; Sillitti & Succi, 2005; Cao & Ramesh, 2008; Bose et al., 2008; Sommerville & Kotonya, 1998; Pressman, 2005). Grau, 2013; Kumar, 2013; Zhu, 2009; Bose et al., 2008; Paetsch et al., 2003; Lucia & Qusef, 2010; Tomayko, 2002; Papadopoulos, 2015; Svensson, 2008; Sajjad, 2010). Grau, 2013; Sillitti & Succi, 2005; Zhu, 2009; Sommerville & Kotonya, 1998; Pressman, 2005; Sajjad, 2010; Bhatti, 2016; Sehrish, 2010). Grau, 2013; Zhu, 2009; Bose, 2008; Kumar, 2013; Paetsch, 2003; Svensson, 2008; Lucia & Qusef, 2010; Sajjad, 2010). Abrahamsson, 2002; Pandey et al., 2010; Bose et al., 2008; Boehm, 2000; Fowler, 2001; Soundararajan & Arthur, 2009; Lucia & Qusef, 2010; Sajjad, 2010; Swarnalatha, 2014; Davey & Chris, 2008; Lizbeth, 2017).

Table 2: Search Results. Databases IEEE ACM Springer Elsevier Science direct Total

Before 120 112 90 105 80 507

After 57 75 42 81 41 211

3.5 SELECTION CRITERIA Keeping in mind the purpose of current SLR the following inclusion/exclusion criteria were defined. 3.5.1 INCLUSION CRITERIA The inclusion criteria comprised of the papers published; papers English has written; papers presenting approaches and papers under the peer-review process to assimilate the users into processes of agile development; Agile RE papers related; papers related to documentation of agile requirements and definite book sections/chapters. 3.5.2 EXCLUSION CRITERIA Similarly, the studies those who did not emphasis clearly on agile approaches, however only mention to methods for agile development software as the side-by-side topic (studies which cites agile as adjective) while studies which did not deliberate requirements engineering in agile approaches, likewise the studies which did not come across the criteria for inclusion and viewpoint, opinion, discussions, keynote, comments, editorials, prefaces, tutorials, and papers anecdote and slide presentations formats starved of any related papers.

Muhammad Ali Abid, Zia Ud Din, Muhammad Ijaz Khan, Tariq Naeem

3.6 STUDY SELECTION PROCESS This section is divided into the following two stages to cover the criteria required for the systematic study and to achieve the desired information. 3.6.1 TITLE & ABSTRACT LEVEL SCREENING The exclusive and inclusive standards are pragmatic to abstract and title of 211 primaries studies. At that point, those studies were excluded which are not relevant to the current research, ended up with 30 papers. 3.6.2 FULL-TEXT LEVEL SCREENING In this stage, all 30 papers were studied in detail. Exclusion/inclusion standards were practical to the contents of all 30 papers. ten papers were excluded in this stage.

3.7 QUALITY ASSESSMENT The rest of the 20 papers were evaluated against the quality criteria given in (Soundararajan & Arthur, 2009) as shown in Table 3. Table 3: Checklist of Quality Assessment (adopted by Soundararajan & Arthur (2009) No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Question Was the study intended to attain certain objectives? Are the study specified the research aims? Are techniques of estimation used selection and described justified? Are the considered variables by the study have measured suiTable? Are the data gathering adequately described the methods? Is the data analysis determination is clear? Is the data composed described adequately? Are the negative consequences have been accessible? Are to analyze data, statistical procedures used justified &described? Are all the answers to the research questions effectively presented? Do scholars discourse any issues with reliability/validity of results? Are the results based on compound projects? How strong are the connections among data, clarification & decision?

Score Y|N|A Y|N|A Y|N|A Y|N|A Y|N|A Y|N|A Y|N|A Y|N|A Y|N|A Y|N|A Y|N|A Y|N|A Y|N|A

Using the 3-points scale, each question was answered by Yes (Y=1), No (N=0), Average (A=0.5). Each study could get 0-13 points. Using quartile first (13/4= 3.25) as for including endpoint the study. When the study got equal or more than 3.25 it would be selected otherwise removed.

4. RESULTS OF STUDY This section shows the overall results of the current SLR. Tables 4 and 5 show the numbers of papers which are evaluated in various phases, detail of accepted and rejected papers are given. Table 4 Paper Evaluated at |Different Phases Databases Search Result After Title & Abstract Selection Papers inaccessible Excepted on inclusive /exclusive measures Study duplicated Low Score Quality Papers Final Paper (b-c-d-f)

Search 211 30 00 10 00 02 18

*Corresponding author (M.Ali Abid). E-mail: abidawan.gu@gmail.com ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering,

Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9A http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9A.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.163

Table 5: Year wise summary of the research paper in study selection and QA Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Before exclusion After Exclusion 2 1 0 0 0 0 4 4 8 7 12 11 13 12 11 11 12 10 14 12 12 10 15 13 10 9 14 12 18 18 11 10 14 14 19 17 22 22 211 193 Total Papers = 211, Remaining = 193, Excluded papers = 18

Table 6: RQ: Factors affecting the Requirement Engineering Factors Underspecified requirements Revisions of requirements The weak relationship between customer and project lead Lack of executive support Lack of planning freezing of task distribution and redistribution Ambiguous requirements Leeds to ill-spent time and rework. Moving objectives (business processes, changing goals & requirements) Technically unfeasible requirements

Frequencies 4 8 5 14 11 9 15 11 9

Table 6 shows the complex issues that mark the process of requirement engineering in ASD.

5. CONCLUSION The present study aimed at the systematic analysis of the factors affecting the RE in agile development software. The common complexities in software requirement models have been identified. If these complexities are properly addressed, the process of software requirements can be significantly improved. During the groundwork of Agile Requirement Engineering Model if Intention of Model, Design constraints, Selection of appropriate modulus and their dimension concerning the targeted goals be attentive then major complications never are happened and shaped a well versed and versatile Agile Requirement Engineering model.

6. DATA AND MATERIAL AVAILABILITY Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding author.

7. REFERENCES Abrahamsson, P. (2002). Agile Software Development Methods: Review and Analysis. VTT.

Muhammad Ali Abid, Zia Ud Din, Muhammad Ijaz Khan, Tariq Naeem

Bjarnason, E., Wnuk, K., & Regnell, B. (2011). A case study on benefits and side-effects of Agile practices in large-scale requirements engineering. In Proceedings of the 1st Workshop on Agile Requirements Engineering. 3. Boehm, B. (2000). The requirements that handle IKIWISI, COTS and rapid change. Computer, 33(7), 99-102. Bose, S., Kurhekar, M., & Ghoshal, J. (2008). Agile Methodology in the Requirements Engineering. SET Labs Briefings Online. Cao, L., & Ramesh, B. (2008). Agile requirements engineering practices: An empirical study. Software, IEEE, 25(1), 60-67. Davey, B., & Bendigo, C. (2008). Requirement Elicitation-what´s Missing? Issues in information sciences and information technology, 5, 543-551. Fowler, M. (2001). The new methodology. Wuhan University Journal of Natural Sciences, 6(1-2), 12-24. Grau, R., Lauenroth, K., Bereza, B., Veenendaal, E., & Zee, S. (2013). The Requirements Engineering and Agile Development-collaborative, just enough, just in time, sustainable. Inayat, I., Salim, S. S., Marczak, S., Daneva, M., & Shamshirband, S. (2014). A systematic literature review on Agile requirements engineering practices & challenges. Computers in Human Behavior. Kumar, M., Shukla, M., & Agarwal, S. (2013). A Hybrid Approach of Requirement Engineering in Agile Software Development., International Conference on Machine Intelligence and Research Advancement (ICMIRA). IEEE. 515-519 Lizbeth, Z., Alfonso, A., Carolina, T., & Sanjay, M. A. (2017). Requirements Engineering Techniques Review in Agile Software Development Methods. Lucia, A. D., & Qusef, A. (2010). The requirements engineering in Agile software development. Journal of Emerging Technologies in Web Intelligence, 2(3), 212-220. Paetsch, F., Eberlein, A., & Maurer, F. (2003). Requirements engineering and Agile software development. In 2012 IEEE 21st International Workshop on Enabling Technologies: Infrastructure for Collaborative Enterprises. IEEE Computer Society. 308. Pandey, D., Suman, U., & Ramani, A. K. (2010). An effective requirement engineering process model for software development and requirements management. International Conference on Advances in Recent Technologies in Communication and Computing (ARTCom), 287-291. Papadopoulos, G. (2015). Moving from Traditional to Agile Software Development Methodologies Also on Large, Distributed Projects. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 175, 455-463. Pressman, R. S. (2005). The Software engineering: a practitioner's approach. Palgrave Macmillan. Racheva, Z., Daneva, M., & Herrmann, A. (2010). A conceptual model of client-driven Agile requirements prioritization: Results of a case study. Rizvi, B., (2013). A systematic review of the distributed Agile software engineering. In Proceedings of the 2010 ACM-IEEE International Symposium on Empirical Software Engineering and Measurement. 39. Sajjad, U., & Hanif, M. (2010). “Issues and challenges of requirement elicitation in large web projects”, School of computing, Blekinge institute of technology ronne by Sweden. *Corresponding author (M.Ali Abid). E-mail: abidawan.gu@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering,

Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9A http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9A.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.163

Sehrish, A., Shahid, N., Shumaila, A. (2016). Analysis of Requirement Engineering Techniques in Agile Development Method. International Journal of Computer Science and Information Security. 14(11), 889-894 Sillitti, A., & Succi, G. (2005). Requirements engineering for Agile methods. In Engineering and Managing Software Requirements. Springer. 309-326 Sommerville, I., & Kotonya, G. (1998). Requirements engineering: processes and techniques. John Wiley & Sons. Soundararajan, S., & Arthur, J. D. (2009). A soft-structured Agile framework for larger scale systems development. ECBS 2009. 16th Annual IEEE International Conference and Workshop on the Engineering of Computer Based Systems. 187-195. Svensson, R. B., Birgisson, S. Ö., Hedin, C., & Regnell, B. (2008). The Agile Requirements Abstraction Model–Requirements Engineering in a Scrum Environment. Department of Computer Science, Lund University. Tomayko, J. E. (2002). The Engineering of unsTable requirements using Agile methods. International Workshop on the Time-Constrained Requirements Engineering (TCRE’02). Essen. Zainab, S., Rabiya, A., Shahid, N., & Asim, A. (2017). Analytical Review on Test Cases Prioritization Techniques: An Empirical Study. IJACSA, 8(2), 2017. Zhu, Y. (2009). The Requirements Engineering in an Agile Environment. Muhammad Ali Abid is a PhD Scholar and an Assistant Director (IT), Institute of Computing & Information Technology, Gomal University, Dera Ismail Khan, Pakistan.

Dr. Zia ud Din is an Associate Professor and Director Institute of Computing & Information Technology, Gomal University, Dera Ismail Khan, Pakistan. His research is Agile Software Development, Wireless Technology, and topics in Software Engineering. He can be reached at ijaz171 @ gmail.com

Muhammad Ijaz Khan is a Lecturer and Director IT, Institute of Computing & Information Technology, Gomal University, Dera Ismail Khan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. He can be reached at Ziasahib @ gmail.com

Tariq Naeem is a Lecturer at the Institute of Computing & Information Technology, Gomal University, Dera Ismail Khan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. He can be reached at tariqnaeem @ gu.edu.pk

Trademarks Disclaimer: All product names including trademarks TM or registered® trademarks mentioned in this article are the property of their respective owners, using for identification and educational purposes only. The use of them does not imply any endorsement or affiliation.

Muhammad Ali Abid, Zia Ud Din, Muhammad Ijaz Khan, Tariq Naeem

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A9B

NEXUS OF FINANCIAL REPORTING QUALITY AND INVESTMENT EFFICIENCY Irfan-Ullah 1

, Usman Ayub , Hashim Khan

Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University, Islamabad, PAKISTAN.

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 16 January 2020 Received in revised form 05 March 2020 Accepted 10 March 2020 Available online 24 March 2020.

This paper examines the bi-directional relationship between financial reporting quality and investment efficiency. Prior studies suggest that financial reporting quality improves the investment efficiency of firms. Using firm-level data one measure of financial reporting quality namely liability side accrual quality confirms this association. Further, we find that firms involve in accruals earnings management thereby decreasing financial reporting quality in an attempt to conceal firm performance from outsiders. Our measure of investment efficiency excessively predicts financial reporting quality. This relationship can be seen for both proxies of financial reporting quality- asset side accruals quality and liability side accruals quality. Results on the two-way relationship between variables are robust even when we use total accruals quality as an alternative proxy of financial reporting quality.

Keywords: Earnings management; Adverse selection; Liability side accruals quality; Moral hazard; Firm performance; Asset side accruals quality; Total accruals quality (TAQ).

1. INTRODUCTION In light of Jensen and Meckling (1976) seminal work, finance scholars perceive the company as a nexus of contractual relationships between different interested groups. These relationships exist between various stakeholders of the firm such as between shareholders (principals) and managers (agents); shareholders (principals) and shareholders (principals); and creditors (principals) and shareholders (agents). This agency relationship which makes bases of agency theory is defined as a contract between a person (principal) and another person (the agent) under which agent performs some duties on behalf of principal; and the principal pays the agent for their duties (Jensen and Meckling, 1976). As the interests of both parties are not aligned, conflict is aroused. This conflict of interest is named the agency problem. In the neoclassical approach, managerial investment behavior is a sole determinant of marginal q (Hayashi, 1982). In other words, companies should continue to invest as long as the marginal benefits *Corresponding author (Irfan-Ullah). Email: irfanullah429@yahoo.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9B http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9B.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.164

of investment are greater than the marginal cost. However existing literature provides evidence that due to agency problems management either under-invest or over-invest to get incentives. The intuition is that outside investors usually do not take part in business operations as its responsibility is assigned to the firmâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s management. Due to the nature of the job, management has more information than shareholders. Information asymmetry increases when due to agency conflict managers do not disseminate important information through financial reports to investors or convey incorrect information to mislead investors (Healy & Wahlen, 1999). Information asymmetry has two consequences. One is the adverse selection and the other is a moral hazard that leads to inefficient investments by the firm (Biddle et al., 2009). On the other hand quality financial reporting diminishes asymmetric information between managers and shareholders, thereby mitigates problems of moral hazard and adverse selection (Verdi, 2006). Biddle et al., (2009) define financial reporting quality as the accuracy of financial reports through which management conveys information to stakeholders of the firm on business activities, particularly about cash flows expected from these activities. Researchers mainly use proxies of earnings management to examine the reporting quality of firms. Earnings management is closely related to attributes of financial reporting quality. For instance, Lara et al., (2016) find that earnings management is negatively associated with earnings conservatism. Park & Shin (2004) show that more managed earnings are less persistent. Mainly managers of firms involve in earnings management to get capital market incentives. Such as Barth et al. (1999) identified higher stock prices for firms having managed earnings. Bartov et al. (2002) find better performance for firms that meet earnings targets. According to the neoclassical approach, efficient investments are those projects that are accepted based on having positive net present (NPV), therefore it is assumed that these projects when are taken, generate cash for a firm that is increasingly firmâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s earnings. On the other hand, inefficient investments are not based on fundamentals and have negative consequences on firm performance. Burgstahler and Dichev (1997) document that firms mostly involve in accruals manipulation to avoid a decline in earnings. Therefore relying on empirical evidence, it can be assumed that the investment efficiency of projects affects managerial earnings management activities to achieve desired earnings targets.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW AND HYPOTHESES DEVELOPMENT Schipper and Vincent (2003) argue that stakeholders of the firm require accurate financial information for their investment decisions and low-quality information can deceive investors. Financial information serves capital markets and assists in optimal resource allocation. If earnings information is only based on judgments about future events then it has adverse effects on investors specifically and employees and other people generally (Pergola and Verreault, 2009). McNichols and Stubben (2008) identify that the investment efficiency of firms having managed earnings figures are low. Comparing to firms having unmanaged earnings, firms with managed earnings have a higher likelihood to overinvest in fixed assets. Biddle and Hilary (2006) show that financial reporting quality is negatively associated with investment-cash flow sensitivity. Further, the negative relationship between variables is more pronounced in economies where firms rely on the stock market to finance projects. Verdi (2006) studies the association between financial reporting quality and investment efficiency of firms prone to deviate from optimal investment. It is concluded that the financial reporting quality decreases overinvestment when a firm has much cash resources to invest and ownership structure is dispersed.

Irfan-Ullah, Usman Ayub, Hashim Khan

Similarly financial reporting quality decreases underinvestment when firms are financially constrained. Biddle et al. (2009) examine whether financial reporting quality affects the investment efficiency of the firm. Results of their study are a) reporting quality negatively affects investment when the firm has much cash resources to invest (financially unconstrained) and proportion of equity financing is high b) reporting quality increases investment when firms are financially constrained and proportion of equity financing is low and c) reporting quality is negatively related with inefficient investments as measured by firm deviation from optimal investment. In lines with previous literature (for example, Leuz et al., 2003 use magnitude of total accruals as a proxy of accruals earnings management), we segregate total accruals into its components- asset side accruals and liability side accruals; and construct proxies of financial reporting quality separate for each category of accruals. Thus, the two hypotheses are developed o o

H1a: Financial reporting quality based on asset side accruals positively affects investment efficiency H1b: Financial reporting quality based on liability side accruals positively affects investment efficiency

Prior literature documents that corporate insiders have different motives to manage earnings numbers and therefore misrepresent firm performance (see, e.g., Leuz et al., 2003; Shleifer and Vishny, 1997). Hope et al. (2013) assert that management of firms engages in increasing or decreasing earnings management to get consistent earnings figures, keeping in view current firm performance. Such that when firm performance is low they are motivated to involve in upward earnings management to meet benchmarks. On the other hand, when the firm is performing well, they tend to manage accruals downwards to beat the benchmark to some extent. In this way managers reserve earnings that may be reversed through upward earnings management in the future when firm performance is poor (Jackson and Liu 2010). Graham et al. (2005) survey shows that firms mostly set previous year earnings as a benchmark for the current year. On the other hand, investment efficiency affects firm performance. In the neoclassical approach investments based on positive (negative) NPV are considered efficient (inefficient). In other words efficient (inefficient) investments when undertaken have positive (negative) effects on operating cash flows subsequently and consequently on net income. Barth et al. (1999) show that stockholders reward firms in the shape of higher share price for their consistent earnings increases and that share price fall when earning decreases. Bartov et al. (2000) reported that managers engage in earnings management when the firm generates less cash from business activities and its ROA is low. Thus based on previous literature, it can be concluded that investment efficiency is a determinant of earnings management that is managers by considering the efficiency of a firmâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s investments formulates a strategy to report accruals to get persistent earnings numbers consequently affecting financial reporting quality. The hypotheses are developed o o

H2a: Investment efficiency positively affects financial reporting quality based on asset side accruals H2b: Investment efficiency positively affects financial reporting quality based on liability side accruals

*Corresponding author (Irfan-Ullah). Email: irfanullah429@yahoo.com ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9B http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9B.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.164

3. METHODOLOGY For collecting data, we select nonfinancial firms that were listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) from 2008-2018 as our target sample. As some variables of the study have lag year calculations, therefore earlier years’ data of 2004 and onwards are also used in some cases. Next, firm-year observations with missing variables data are removed. Thus our sample is reduced to 290 firms. The data source used is Banker Thomson DataStream.

3.1 VARIABLES MEASUREMENT The main variables include financial reporting quality and investment inefficiency. Several control variables are also used along with the main independent variables. 3.1.1 FINANCIAL REPORTING QUALITY Our proxies of financial reporting quality base on the magnitude of aggregate asset side accruals and aggregate liability side accruals. Where ceteris pubis higher magnitude of accruals means that managers availed more chances to manage earnings and resulted in financial reports have low quality. Specifically, we compute asset side accruals quality and liability side accruals quality of firm as * (-1)

(1)

* (-1)

(2)

In Equation (1) AAQ stands for assets side accruals quality which equals the ratio of absolute change in total current assets excluding cash and short term investments (abs ΔCA) to total assets (TA), multiplied by -1. In Equation (2) LAQ is abbreviated for liabilities side accruals quality. It equals to the ratio of absolute change in total liabilities (abs ΔLA) to total assets (TA), multiplied by -1. Both ratios are multiplied by -1 so that low value of it shows low financial reporting quality due to high accruals. i,t are subscripts denoting firm and year respectively. In both equations, total assets are used to remove size effects. 3.1.2 INVESTMENT INEFFICIENCY The investment inefficiency variable is measured as the residuals of a model that predicts the investment of the firm as a function of its growth opportunities (e.g., Biddle et al. 2009). Negative residuals show that the firm invested less than expected investment (underinvestment). On the other hand, positive residuals identify that firm invested more than expected investment (overinvestment). Absolute values of both underinvestment and overinvestment are combined with the investment inefficiency variable. Estimated model is (3). Investment (Inv) represents the sum of capital expenditures and research and development (R& D) expenditures less sale of property, plant, and equipment (PPE) in the current year, and sales growth (SG) shows the change in sales in the previous year. Sales growth serves as a proxy of growth opportunities for the firm (Biddle et al., 2009). Equation (3) model is estimated through least squares for each industry group based on the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system each year with at least 10 observations in a given year from 2008-2018.

Irfan-Ullah, Usman Ayub, Hashim Khan

3.1.3 CONTROL VARIABLES A list of all control variables used in each equation is given in Table 1. Table 1: Control variables, its calculation, and studies on it. Ser 1 2

Model Investment Efficiency

Variable Size

Natural log of total assets

Leverage

Total debt divided by total assets

Growth

Tangibility

5 6

Financial slack CFOSales

StdCFO

StdSales

StdInv

Loss

Age

1 2 3 4

Financial reporting quality

5 6

Size Leverage Growth CFOSales Loss Age

Method

The market value of stockholders equity divided by book value of stockholders equity PPE divided by total assets Cash and cash equivalent divided by PPE Cash flows from operations divided by total sales SD of operating cash flow divided by total assets for the previous five years SD of sales divided by total assets for the previous five years SD of total investment including capital expenditure and R& D expenditure for the previous five years Dummy variable. It takes value â&#x20AC;&#x153;1â&#x20AC;? for the loss by the firm in the previous year and â&#x20AC;&#x153;0â&#x20AC;? otherwise Natural log of the difference between the year of establishment of firm and current year Same calculation as for Investment efficiency model Same calculation as for Investment efficiency model

Sources Shahzad et al. (2019); Houcine (2017), Lara et al. (2016) and Biddle et al. (2009) Shahzad et al.., (2019), Lara et al. (2016) and Biddle et al.(2009) Shahzad et al. (2019) and Houcine (2017) Shahzad et al.., (2019), Lara et al.., (2016) and Biddle et al..,(2009) Houcine (2017), Lara et al.., (2016) and Wang et al., (2011) Houcine (2017), Lara et al.., (2016) and Biddle et al. (2009)

Lara et al. (2016) and Biddle et al. (2009) Houcine (2017) and Lara et al. (2016) Shahzad et al. (2019), Lara et al. (2016) and Biddle et al. (2009) Shahzad et al. (2019), Houcine (2017) and Lara et al. (2016) Hope et al. (2013), Wang (2006), Abdul Rahman & Ali (2006) and Bartov et al. (2000)

Same calculation as for Investment efficiency model Same calculation as for Investment efficiency model Same calculation as for Investment efficiency model

Abdul Rahman & Ali (2006) and Bartov et al. (2000) Wang (2006) and Cheng & Warfield (2005)

Same calculation as for Investment efficiency model

Wang (2006), Anderson & Reeb (2003a)

3.2 MODELS Effect of financial reporting quality on investment efficiency is given as (4). Effect of investment efficiency on financial reporting quality is given as (5). IE is investment inefficiency defined as residual from parsimonious investment Equation (3). FRQ is financial reporting quality based on the magnitude of assets side accruals or liabilities side accruals calculated from Equations (1) and (2) respectively. Control variables of the respective equation and its calculation are given in Table 1. Subscripts i and t are used to denote firm and year respectively. The dependent variable is based on the future year and independent variables correspond to current year observations of the firm. The terms đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝ and đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź are regression coefficients.

4. RESULTS

4.1 DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS Table 2, descriptive statistics of investment inefficiency (raw form), its components underinvestment and overinvestment; and asset side accruals quality (AAQ), liability side accruals quality (LAQ) and control variables are provided. Summarized results show that 63% of firms belong *Corresponding author (Irfan-Ullah). Email: irfanullah429@yahoo.com ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9B http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9B.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.164

to underinvestment groups while the remaining 37% belong to the overinvestment group. The average total assets are 18410 million Rs. On average, sample firms finance 57 % of their total assets by debt. Sample firms include both young and old firms. The minimum value of firm age is 3 years and the maximum value of age is 158 years during the study period 2008-2018. Table 2: Descriptive Statistics Variable INV INEFFICIENCY RAW UNDERINVESTMENT OVERINVESTMENT AAQ LAQ ASSETS LEVERAGE GROWTH TANGIBILITY SLACK CFOSALE STDCFO STDINV STDSALE LOSS AGE

Mean 0.002 0.04 0.075 -0.088 -0.101 18410.61 0.573 1.819 0.473 0.072 -0.073 0.094 551.893 0.361 0.237 39.128

Median -0.015 0.034 0.037 -0.057 -0.068 4372.879 0.56 0.773 0.472 0.022 0.049 0.077 101.981 0.257 0 34

Maximum 1.834 0.758 1.834 0 0 666477.2 3.739 248.223 0.985 0.888 2.882 0.637 23461.9 6.384 1 158

Minimum -0.758 0 0 -2.762 -0.697 71.801 0.007 -127.809 0 0 -103.73 0.003 0 0.003 0 3

SD 0.1 0.039 0.127 0.112 0.101 50203.71 0.306 8.033 0.221 0.112 3.009 0.07 1590.268 0.384 0.425 20.403

Observations 2290 1443 847 2290 2290 2290 2290 2290 2290 2290 2290 2290 2290 2290 2290 2290

Inv Inefficiency Raw is the signed residuals from Equation (3). Underinvestment is a negative residual from Equation (3) multiplied by -1. Overinvestment is positive residuals from Equation (3), Assets are reported in million Rs. Age is in years

4.2 CORRELATION ANALYSIS

LOSS

STDSALES

STDINV

STDCFO

CFOSALE

SLACK

TANGIBILITY

GROWTH

LEVERAGE

SIZE

LAQ

AAQ

INV INEFFICIENCY

Table 3 provides Pearson correlations between investment inefficiency (based on future year observations) and other variables (based on current year observations). Among variables, a maximum correlation exists between firm size and SD of investment. Its correlation coefficient is 0.62 which is greater than -0.7 and less than 0.7. So there are no chances of multicollinearity between explanatory variables and unbiased regression estimates can be obtained through regression analysis in the next step. The first measure of financial reporting quality- asset side accruals quality (AAQ) has an insignificant positive correlation with investment inefficiency. The second measure of financial reporting quality- liability side accruals quality (LAQ) has a significant negative correlation with investment inefficiency. Table 3: Pearson correlations between investment inefficiency (based on future year observations) and other variables (based on current year observations).

0.006 -0.043** 0.472*** -0.001 0.066*** 0.013 LEVERAGE -0.05 -0.032 -0.211*** -0.073*** GROWTH 0.072*** -0.017 -0.026 0.114*** -0.03 TANGIBILITY 0.012 0.334*** 0.056*** -0.028 0.248*** -0.155*** SLACK 0.033 -0.085*** 0.049** 0.189*** -0.341*** 0.145*** -0.421*** CFOSALE 0.004 0.127*** 0.113*** 0.222*** -0.317*** 0.124*** 0.043** 0.184*** STDCFO 0.017 -0.212*** -0.156*** -0.111*** -0.044** 0.115*** -0.222*** 0.185*** 0.005 STDINV -0.014** 0.112*** 0.042** 0.629*** 0.013 0.074*** 0.135*** 0.047** 0.195*** -0.095*** STDSALES 0.003 -0.239*** -0.171*** -0.204*** 0.078*** 0.074*** -0.202*** 0.087*** -0.068*** 0.326*** -0.150*** LOSS -0.068*** 0.092*** 0.035* -0.154*** 0.416*** -0.127*** 0.264*** -0.245*** -0.261*** -0.067*** -0.055*** -0.090*** LNAGE 0.02 -0.004 0.034 0.077*** -0.053** 0.077*** -0.059*** 0.021 0.014 -0.083*** 0.031 -0.092*** -0.064*** AAQ LAQ SIZE

Inv Inefficiency is the absolute value of residuals from Equation (3). *,** and *** show significance at 10%, 5% and 1% significance level.

Irfan-Ullah, Usman Ayub, Hashim Khan

Table 4 provides Pearson correlations between proxies of financial reporting quality (based on future year observations) and other variables (based on current year observations). Here maximum correlation exists between leverage and loss. Its correlation coefficient value is 0.41 which is greater than -0.7 and less than 0.7. This value can be justified for no multicollinearity between independent variables and therefore no issues will be raised in regression analysis. Investment inefficiency is negatively correlated with both asset side accruals quality and liability side accruals quality. However the correlation between investment inefficiency and liability side accruals quality is only significant.

-0.03 -0.317*** 0.416*** -0.053**

0.124*** -0.127*** 0.077***

-0.261*** 0.014

LOSS

CFOSALE

-0.073*** 0.114*** 0.222*** -0.154*** 0.077***

GROWTH

0.035* 0.036* 0.063*** -0.033 -0.033 -0.005

LEVERAGE

-0.090*** 0.028 -0.190*** -0.060*** 0.060*** 0.006 0.047**

SIZE

0.445*** -0.033 0.085*** -0.024 -0.024 0.027 0.073*** -0.019

INV INEFFICIENCY

LAQ

LAQ INV INEFFICIENCY SIZE LEVERAGE GROWTH CFOSALE LOSS LNAGE

AAQ

Table 4: Pearson correlations between proxies of financial reporting quality (based on future year observations) and other variables (based on current year observations).

-0.064**

*,** and *** show significance at 10%, 5% and 1% significance level

4.3 RESULTS Table 5 (first three columns) reports results on regression analysis performed to test H1a. Model has adjusted R-square of 6.9%. Low adjusted R-square may be due to a small number of data periods and independent variables. Further, it seems that in the Pakistani context there are other variables also that affect the investment efficiency of firms not included in this study. On the part of slope coefficients, results do not reject our assumed null hypothesis that financial reporting quality (asset side accruals quality) does not affect positively investment efficiency (β= -0.003, t= -0.268). Results on testing H1b are provided in Table 5 (last three columns). The model has adjusted R-square of 7%. Coefficient on liability side accruals quality (LAQ) is negative and significant at 10% significance level (β = -0.022, t= -1.64). In the earlier analysis, we find an insignificant negative coefficient value for asset side accruals quality (AAQ) in relationship with investment inefficiency (Inv Inefficiency). On part of liability side accruals quality (LAQ) significant negative relationship shows that in contrary to asset side accruals, investors in Pakistan weight to liability side accruals while making investment decisions. This makes firm ease in raising funds for launching efficient projects. For testing hypothesis H2a which assumes the negative effect of investment inefficiency (Inv Inefficiency) on asset side accruals quality (AAQ), AAQ is regressed on Inv Inefficiency, and results are reported in Table 6 (first three columns). The model has adjusted R-square of 24.7%. Inv Inefficiency has significant negative coefficient value (β = -0.268, t= -5.077). Thus increase in investment inefficiency (Inv Inefficiency) negatively affects financial reporting quality (AAQ) of the firm. In other words, when investment efficiency is low, managers mask true underlying firm performance by managing asset side accruals leading to inferior financial reporting quality.

*Corresponding author (Irfan-Ullah). Email: irfanullah429@yahoo.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9B http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9B.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.164

Table 5: Effect of Financial Reporting Quality on Investment Efficiency (dependent variable: investment inefficiency.) Variable Coefficient t-Statistic Variable Coefficient t-Statistic AAQ -0.003 -0.268 LAQ -0.022 -1.649 SIZE -0.018 -2.751 -0.019 -2.905 LEVERAGE -0.043 -3.966 -0.045 -4.413 GROWTH 0.002 2.433 0.002 2.404 TANGIBILITY -0.009 -0.355 -0.01 -0.43 SLACK 0.095 5.176 0.096 5.356 CFOSALE -0.018 -2.864 -0.017 -2.756 STDCFO -0.016 -0.716 -0.014 -0.659 STDINV 0.001 -2.55 0.001 -2.505 STDSALE -0.001 -0.337 -0.001 -0.431 LOSS -0.003 -0.908 -0.003 -0.784 LNAGE 0.035 1.406 0.036 1.464 C 0.113 1.251 0.111 1.253 Adjusted R-squared 0.069 0.07 F-statistic 1.568 1.579 Prob(F-statistic) 0 0 Firm fixed effect Yes Yes Correction for Heteroscedasticity Yes Yes

Results on testing H2b are presented in Table 6 (last two columns). The model of liability side accruals quality (LAQ) in relation to investment inefficiency (Inv Inefficiency) has adjusted R-square of 16.7 %. Coefficient on Inv Inefficiency is negatively and significantly associated with LAQ (Î˛ = -0.134, t= -3.29). Thus increase in investment inefficiency (Inv Inefficiency) negatively affects financial reporting quality (LAQ) of the firm. In other words, when investment efficiency is low, managers mask true underlying firm performance by managing liability side accruals leading to inferior financial reporting quality. Table 6: Effect of investment inefficiency (Inv Inefficiency) on AAQ and effect of AAQ on Inv Inefficiency. Dependent variable: AAQ Variable Coefficient t-Statistic INV INEFFICIENCY -0.097 -5.078 SIZE 0.019 1.206 LEVERAGE -0.028 -1.294 GROWTH 0 -0.575 CFOSALE -0.011 -0.639 LOSS 0.009 1.917 LNAGE -0.026 -0.93 C -0.13 -0.777 Adjusted R-squared 0.247 F-statistic 3.55 Prob(F-statistic) 0 Firm fixed effect Yes Correction for Heteroscedasticity Yes

Dependent variable: LAQ Coefficient t-Statistic -0.135 -3.3 0.04 4.552 -0.068 -1.615 -0.004 -2.334 0.007 0.427 0.011 1.489 -0.075 -3.207 -0.125 -1.431 0.167 2.552 0 Yes Yes

4.4 ROBUSTNESS CHECKS To check the generalizability of the results we perform robustness analysis. It is accomplished by re-examining the relationship between financial reporting quality measured through another proxy and investment efficiency. Our new measure of financial reporting quality uses the magnitude of total accruals as a proxy of earnings management (Leuz et al., 2003). It is computed as

Irfan-Ullah, Usman Ayub, Hashim Khan

* (-1)

(6).

TAQ is total accruals quality. TAC is total accruals in absolute form. TA is the absolute value of total assets. To make the measure of financial reporting quality consistent, the ratio is multiplied by -1 so that a low value of it shows low financial reporting quality due to the high use of accruals. Total assets are used in the denominator to control for differences in firm size. No changes are made in investment inefficiency measures. Models estimated are (7) (8) TAQ is total accruals quality calculated using Equation (6). All other variables in Equations (7) and (8) are the same as in their respective Equations (4) and (5). Table 7: Effect of TAQ on investment inefficiency and effect of investment inefficiency (Inv Inefficiency) on TAQ. Effect of TAQ on Investment Efficiency

Dependent variable- Investment inefficiency Variable Coefficient t-statistic TAQ -0.0002 -0.915 SIZE -0.019 -2.734 LEVERAGE -0.043 -4.000 GROWTH 0.002 2.431 TANGIBILITY -0.010 -0.404 SLACK 0.095 5.146 CFOSALE -0.018 -2.835 STDCFO -0.019 -0.815 STDINV 0.000 -2.500 STDSALE -0.001 -0.319 LOSS -0.004 -0.975 LNAGE 0.035 1.321 C 0.115 1.272 Adjusted R-squared 0.070 F-statistic 1.576 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000 Firm fixed effect Yes Correction for Heteroscedasticity Yes

Effect of Investment Efficiency on TAQ

Dependent variable- Total accruals quality Variable Coefficient t-statistic INV INEFFICIENCY -8.375 -1.662 SIZE -0.299 -0.604 LEVERAGE 2.497 1.217 GROWTH -0.133 -0.862 CFOSALE -0.580 -0.522 LOSS -1.771 -2.894 LNAGE 1.497 0.643 C -5.861 -0.662

0.134 2.193 0.000 Yes Yes

Overall, results on the relationship between TAQ and investment inefficiency (Inv Inefficiency) are similar to those found through other measures of financial reporting quality (e.g AAQ and LAQ) and Inv Inefficiency. Table 7 (first three columns) reports results on examining the effect of TAQ on Inv Inefficiency. The model has adjusted R-square of 7 %. Consistent with AAQ, TAQ makes insignificant negative relationship with Inv Inefficiency (β= -0.0002, t= -0.915). Table 7 (last three columns) provides results on studying the effect of Inv Inefficiency on TAQ. The model has adjusted R-square of 13.4%. Coefficient on Inv Inefficiency is negative and significant at 10% significance level (β= -8.37, t= -1.66). Thus increase in Inv Inefficiency negatively affects financial reporting quality (TAQ) in the form of high use accruals. *Corresponding author (Irfan-Ullah). Email: irfanullah429@yahoo.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9B http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9B.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.164

5. CONCLUSION This research explores the two-way relationship between financial reporting quality and investment efficiency in the Pakistani context. Financial reporting quality affects investment efficiency in two ways. First, it helps firms in reducing underinvestment by raising funds for investment at a low cost. Second financial reporting quality works as a monitoring tool and avoids firms overinvesting. One of the measures of financial reporting quality used in past literature is based on accruals earnings management. Mostly, researchers use various estimation models such as the Jones model to capture discretionary accruals as a proxy of earnings management. However, these models are criticized by researchers due to measurement error in model estimation. Accruals appearing in the income statement are also reflected in assets and liabilities accounts of the balance sheet. Due to these facts, our measures of earnings management vis-a-vis financial reporting quality are aggregate of asset side accruals and aggregate of liability side accruals. Asset side accruals quality does not make a significant association with investment efficiency. These results can be seen in the perspective that investors in Pakistan do not consider asset side accruals to judge the financial reporting quality of the firm. On the other hand liability side accruals quality positively affects investment efficiency. Thus investors consider liability side accruals while making investment decisions which leads to the efficient investment of firms. Shahzad et al., (2019) using the same context for different periods examine among others association between financial reporting quality and investment efficiency. Results show that financial reporting quality is positively associated with current year investment efficiency. In our study, we find that financial reporting quality positively affects future year investment efficiency. Thus it is evidenced that financial reporting quality affects both current and future year investment decisions of firms. On the other hand findings on the effect of investment efficiency on financial reporting quality show that managers engage in earnings management keeping in view the current year performance of the firm.

6. DATA AND MATERIAL AVAILABILITY Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding author.

7. REFERENCES Abdul Rahman, R., & Haneem Mohamed Ali, F. (2006). Board, audit committee, culture and earnings management: Malaysian evidence. Managerial Auditing Journal, 21(7), 783-804. Anderson, R. C., & Reeb, D. M. (2003). Foundingâ&#x20AC;?family ownership and firm performance: evidence from the S&P 500. The journal of finance, 58(3), 1301-1328. Barth, M. E., Clinch, G., & Shibano, T. (1999). International accounting harmonization and global equity markets. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 26(1-3), 201-235. Bartov, E., Gul, F. A., & Tsui, J. S. (2000). Discretionary-accruals models and audit qualifications. Journal of accounting and economics, 30(3), 421-452. Biddle, G. C., & Hilary, G. (2006). Accounting quality and firm-level capital investment. The accounting review, 81(5), 963-982. Biddle, G. C., Hilary, G., & Verdi, R. S. (2009). How does financial reporting quality relate to

Irfan-Ullah, Usman Ayub, Hashim Khan

investment efficiency?. Journal of accounting and economics, 48(2-3), 112-131. Burgstahler, D., & Dichev, I. (1997). Earnings management to avoid earnings decreases and losses. Journal of accounting and economics, 24(1), 99-126. Cheng, Q., & Warfield, T. D. (2005). Equity incentives and earnings management. The accounting review, 80(2), 441-476. Graham, J. R., Harvey, C. R., & Rajgopal, S. (2005). The economic implications of corporate financial reporting. Journal of accounting and economics, 40(1-3), 3-73. Hayashi, F. (1982). Tobin's marginal q and average q: A neoclassical interpretation. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 213-224. Healy, P. M., & Wahlen, J. M. (1999). A review of the earnings management literature and its implications for standard setting. Accounting Horizons, 13(4), 365-383. Hope, O. K., Ma, M. S., & Thomas, W. B. (2013). Tax avoidance and geographic earnings disclosure. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 56(2-3), 170-189. Houcine, A. (2017). The effect of financial reporting quality on corporate investment efficiency: Evidence from the Tunisian stock market. Research in International Business and Finance, 42, 321-337. Jackson, S. B., & Liu, X. (2010). The allowance for uncollectible accounts, conservatism, and earnings management. Journal of Accounting Research, 48(3), 565-601. Jensen, M. C., & Meckling, W. H. (1976). Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure. Journal of financial economics, 3(4), 305-360. Lara, J. M. G., Osma, B. G., & Penalva, F. (2016). Accounting conservatism and firm investment efficiency. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 61(1), 221-238. Leuz, C., Nanda, D., & Wysocki, P. D. (2003). Earnings management and investor protection: an international comparison. Journal of financial economics, 69(3), 505-527. McNichols, M. F., & Stubben, S. R. (2008). Does earnings management affect firmsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; investment decisions?. The accounting review, 83(6), 1571-1603. Park, Y. W., & Shin, H. H. (2004). Board composition and earnings management in Canada. Journal of Corporate Finance, 10(3), 431-457. Pergola, T. M., & Verreault, D. A. (2009). Motivations and potential monitoring effects of large shareholders. Corporate Governance: The international journal of business in society, 9(5), 551-563. Schipper, K., & Vincent, L. (2003). Earnings quality. Accounting Horizons, 17, 97-110 Shahzad, F., Rehman, I. U., Colombage, S., & Nawaz, F. (2019). Financial reporting quality, family ownership, and investment efficiency: An empirical investigation. Managerial Finance, 45(4), 513-535. Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. W. (1997). A survey of corporate governance. The journal of finance, 52(2), 737-783. *Corresponding author (Irfan-Ullah). Email: irfanullah429@yahoo.com ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9B http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9B.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.164

Verdi, R. S. (2006). Financial reporting quality and investment efficiency. Wang, D. (2006). Founding family ownership and earnings quality. Journal of accounting research, 44(3), 619-656. Irfan Ullah is a PhD scholar at the Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Pakistan. He got his Masterâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s degree in Finance, from International Islamic University Islamabad, Pakistan. His research interests include Corporate Governance, Earnings Management, Financial Reporting Quality and Assets Mispricing.

Dr. Usman Ayub is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Pakistan. His research interests are Portfolio Theory, Asset Pricing, Corporate Finance, Fuzzy Sets, Artificial Neural Networks and Islamic Finance.

Dr. Hashim Khan is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Pakistan. He is interested in Corporate Governance, Earnings Management, Financial Reporting Quality and Corporate Fraud.

Irfan-Ullah, Usman Ayub, Hashim Khan

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A9C

EXPERIENCING GNSS ATLAS L-BAND SERVICE IN THAILAND 1

Seksun Pluemsawasd , Kritsada Anantakarn , Rerkchai Fooprateepsiri , 1 3 Wunchock Kroehong , Boonsap Witchayangkoon 1

Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Architecture, Uthenthawai Campus. Rajamongala University of Technology Tawan-ok, THAILAND. 2 Department of Information Technology, Faculty of Business and Information Technology, Rajamongala University of Technology Tawan-ok, THAILAND. 3 Department of Civil Engineering, Thammasat School of Engineering, Thammasat University, THAILAND. ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 23 January 2020 Received in revised form 26 February 2020 Accepted 02 March 2020 Available online 24 March 2020

Many civil engineering and construction tasks require highly accurate land surveying information. The Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) provides positioning locations for land surveying and navigation technology. To achieve high accuracy, Real-Time Kinematic (RTK) differential correction method is mainly applied for Differential GNSS measurement. The Royal Thai Survey Department (RTSD) has established many local Continuously Operating Reference Stations (CORS). Information from CORS can be used for RTK differential correction via mobile Internet connection. However, many rural remote areas in Thailand such as forest, agricultural lands have no GSM mobile signal and Internet. The alternative solution is to use the GNSS L-band global correction service that is connected to a satellite communication system. Such system uses precise point positioning (PPP) technology to give corrected data for improving positioning measurement accuracy without internet connection requirement. This study employs is GNSS L-Band Global correction service for many test sites in Thailand and the results are compared with static. The user receiver accessing to GPS, GLONASS and BEIDU satellites, the static comparison study of Atlas L-Band correction and AUSPOS confirms centimeters horizontal accuracy and decimeters height accuracy.

Keywords: Land survey; GPS; GNSS, RTK; internet; CORS; L-band correction; L-band differential correction service; AUSPOS.

1. INTRODUCTION Land survey and cadastral mapping for issuing landowner certificate and rural development play an important role in Thailand, especially in the remote area as mountainous and islands where *Corresponding author (Kritsada Annatakarn). Email: singut51@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9C http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9C.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.165

there is no internet communication for applying modern survey equipment. Up to date land surveying technology is mostly used Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) that employs GPS United States of America, GLONASS Russia, Galilleo European and Beidu China for a constellation of the satellite to provide positioning location for land surveying and navigation technology (Rajeswari and Christopher, 2020). With the purpose to achieve high accuracy with Root Mean Square (RMS) error with less than 5 centimeters, Real-Time Kinematic (RTK) differential correction method is mainly applied for Differential GPS measurement. Continuously Operating Reference Station (CORS) is a form of RTK differential correction that is done through the use of a cellular modem and base station network (Yanming and Jinling, 2008). The method shows that rather than using the conventional base station and radio to send correction data to a rover, data is sent using the internet to a cellular mobile device in Network Transport of RTCM via Internet Protocol (NTRIP). Virtual Reference Station (VRS) uses a tool of RTK correction that makes the rover to send its position to the VRS network; the network then produces a virtual base near to the rover that is assigned for correction. All the communication is using a radio signal or internet connection, and a radio signal has distance limitation which is replaced by internet communication. Therefore, the Royal Thai Survey Department (RTSD) in Thailand has established the CORS networks that provide VRS/RTK networks via an internet connection to the land surveyor for cadastral mapping and civil engineering development. The limitation of internet coverage problem in Thailand, many rural and forest areas have no mobile and internet connection. The CORS network of the Royal Thai Survey Department (RTSD) in Thailand provides VRS/RTK networks via an internet connection but many remote areas in Thailand have no GSM mobile signal and internet. These remote areas such as forest, agricultural and rural land are highly required for land development and landowner certificate issuing processes. Without GSM mobile signal and internet connection in these rural areas make it impossible for the surveyor to measure geodetic positioning for land survey and mapping. In order to solve these problems, L-Band Atlas data correction services that can be used for positioning measurement.

2. REVIEWS The existing CORS operation and services for RTK networks have been developed by some organizations in Thailand. Atlas L-band GNSS measurement for precise point positioning (PPP) is an alternative method for areas where the internet is not available.

2.1 EXISTING AND PLANNING FOR CORS OPERATION AND SERVICES There are four main government organizations such as the Department of Land (DOL), Royal Thai Survey Department (RTSD), and Department of Public Works and Town & Country Planning (DPT). These organizations have planned to build 276 CORS up to the year 2021, see Table 1. Table 1: Thailand GNSS 276 CORS networks (Source: DOL 2019) Years 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total

DOL 11 51 30 36 6 47

RTSD

DPT 15

Total 26 51 110 36 6 47

276

Seksun Pluemsawasd, Kritsada Anantakarn, Rerkchai Fooprateepsiri, Wunchock Kroehong, Boonsap Witchayangkoon

2.2 L-BAND ATLAS SERVICES Modern L-Band GNSS receivers are cost-efficient devices having hand-held size. Such receivers can be used for land and water surveying applications (Anantakarn and Witchayangkoon, 2019). Using an external GNSS antenna, the receiver includes free Land Survey App and postprocessing software. L-Band data correction service is a low-cost solution for all survey applications and data collection types such as Real-Tme Kinematic (RTK), Post-Process Kinematic, and static measurement (Anantakarn et al., 2019; Witchayangkoon, 2000). At the time being, some equipment brands are used L-Band global correction services such as Atlas (Hemisphere), CenterPoint RTX (Trimble; Ken et al., 2013), StarFire (Nacom) and SmartLink (Leica GeoSystem). This method can achieve 4-centimeter accuracy positional measurement by precise point positioning (PPP). The system infrastructure is based on a global network of GNSS receivers (Ken et al., 2013) of Continuously Operating Reference Stations (CORS). The CORS operates around the clock for collecting the GNSS data measurements from the GNSS satellites. At the processing facilities, the network data is combined with other auxiliary data and is processed, aiming to generate satellite precise information. That information for precise point positioning (PPP) includes the satellite orbits, the clock errors, and other quantities from the International GNSS Service (IGS) networks that are used for high-accuracy global positioning (Yoichi and Takashi, 2007).

Figure 1: Operation of Atlas L-Band services (Source: Hemisphere GNSS 2018) For subscribe users, each receiver in the network is linked to a satellite communication system via L-Band, and receives corrected data for its improving measurement accuracy for land and maritime survey. L-Band with the frequency between 1,525-1,646.5 MHz has some advantages over other frequencies, as it is good for poor weather conditions, such as heavy rain (Rajeswari and Christopher, 2020). The obvious advantage is its connection is using L-Band frequency instead of *Corresponding author (Kritsada Annatakarn). Email: singut51@gmail.com ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9C http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9C.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.165

the Internet connection. Therefore, this L-Band correction service can be employed in the remote areas where Internet connection is not required. Being a worldwide differential correction service, L-band GNSS offers the most advanced corrections via Atlas L-band satellites. Users can have improved accuracies, from meters level to sub-meter, decimeters and centimeters. L-band option for precise point positioning (PPP) from Hemisphere GNSS 2012 provides worldwide decimeter positioning to smartphones, tablets or notebook computers, as described in Figure 1. There have been about 200 IGS reference stations worldwide and L-Band satellites distributing coverage from 75°N to 75°S, all of the earth’s landmass is covered (Ken et al., 2013). Atlas Hemisphere has provided three levels of service as H100 with 1m 95% (50 cm RMS), H30 with 30cm 95% (15 cm RMS), and H10 with 8cm 95% (4 cm RMS). GNSS data are collected from IGS CORS located all over the world. Data is then processed at the Control Centers and corrections are up-linked to the geostationary satellites. Each satellite broadcasts corrections for its region over specific for precise point positioning (PPP) L-band frequencies.

2.3 COORDINATE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOCAL AND IGS SYSTEM There is a difference in coordinate measurement between local CORS and IGS CORS system. This coordinate difference makes local surveyors having trouble when they use L-band or Postprocessing techniques by referring to IGS CORS. The study objective is to provide L-Band Atlas data correction service to use in the areas where the internet is not available for RTCM data communication by RTK method. This solution contributes many benefits to land surveyors who work for forestry and agriculture in a remote area without internet communication.

3. METHODOLOGY The ATLAS L-band GNSS system has an advantage of using L-Band frequency 1545.855MHZ to connect to the communication satellite and it does not use the internet connection that can be used in the remote area where internet connection is not available. The L-Band measurement from Atlas service is collected in 45 minutes until to get the fixed mode to be sure that corrected data is met the sufficient accuracy requirement (Yoichi M. and Takashi T., 2007). The L-Band frequency 1545.855MHZ data measurements for precise point positioning (PPP) with the CORS mobile are evaluated for its accuracy by relative comparing with the static measurement at the same survey points (Suelynn et al., 2015). The static measurement is collected for 2 hours and is then post-processed by using RINEX for online processing on AUSPOS services provided by Geoscience Australia at http://www.ga.gov.au/bin/gps.pl. The L-Band measurement data is relatively compared with the results of post-processing static data for evaluating the accuracy of positioning.

3.1 L-BAND ATLAS DATA COLLECTION L-band data measurement is collected by using the dual-frequency receiver Hemisphere Smart Antenna model S321 with L-Band Atlas frequency 1545.855MHZ service type of H10 with 8cm 95% (4 cm RMS). The data is collected for 45 minutes from single to fixed mode as shown in Table 2. The average of 200 epochs is applied for the result of the measurement for each site. This

Seksun Pluemsawasd, Kritsada Anantakarn, Rerkchai Fooprateepsiri, Wunchock Kroehong, Boonsap Witchayangkoon

L-Band data results are relatively compared with post-processing static data for accuracy assessment.

3.2 STATIC GNSS MEASUREMENT The GNSS data static was collected as raw data in more than two hours during the L-band measurement mode as described in Table 2. The antenna height was measured and recorded for the Post-processing technique. Then this static data was on-line post-processing by using AUSPOS Online GPS Processing Service. The post-process AUSPOS is a free-of-charge online differential GPS data processing facility provided by Geoscience Australia. It uses both the IGS CORS networks and the IGS product types. The International GNSS Service (IGS) has open access, it has combined high-quality GNSS data products since 1994. These products can be accessed for scientific, educational, and commercial applications with the definitive global reference frame. The post-process AUSPOS has operated with data collected around the world. Static measurement data is online submitted in dual-frequency geodetic quality GPS RINEX by any internet browser at http://www.ga.gov.au/scientific-topics/positioning-navigation/geodesy/auspos. The results of postprocess static data are applied for evaluating the accuracy of the L-Band Atlas measurement data. Table 2: Description of data collection Sites

Observation Date dd/mm/yyyy

AYA BKK CBI KRI NYK NPT PTE RBR SRI SPB1 SKM SKN SPB

18/02/2020 29/01/2020 13/02/2020 20/02/2020 14/03/2020 09/01/2020 18/02/2020 15/02/2020 15/03/2020 14/03/2020 15/02/2020 15/02/2020 15/03/2020

Observation time hh:mm-hh:mm Static/raw L-band Atlas data RINEX 200 (1 sec. per epoch) 13:58-16:09 16:00-16:46 13:46-16:03 15:32-16:26 15:36-17:38 16:00-17:54 17:18-19:41 18:50-19:37 11:24-13:42 12:10-13:35 10:37-13:43 14:35-15:25 09:43-12:02 11:53-12:38 19:18-21:29 21:02-21:55 09:48-12:05 11:55-12:59 17:06-19:18 18:10-19:14 14:44-16:51 16:04-16:55 10:52-13:00 12:03-12:56 15:06-17:19 16:13-17:16

Satellite: GPS, GLONASS and BEIDU (cut-off angle 10Â°) No. PDOP HDOP VDOP sat. 27 28 29 28 27 29 27 28 29 27 28 30 28

1.206 1.100 1.22 1.000 1.200 1.000 1.000 1.050 1.000 1.033 1.300 1.00 1.100

0.500 0.500 0.52 0.500 0.500 0.600 0.552 0.550 0.500 0.532 0.600 0.500 0.500

1.106 0.902 1.100 0.809 1.100 0.828 0.800 0.900 0.900 0.900 1.100 0.832 0.900

3.3 THE STUDY AREA The Atlas L-band GNSS and GNSS RTK data were collected in the central of Thailand and they were located as in Figure 3. There are nine test sites in rural and urban areas where GNSS RTK from RTSD can be measured as reference data. The field survey was conducted from 09 January to 15 March 2020 in the drying season. Twelve provinces in the central of Thailand was selected as the test sites because they can be easy to travel and access from Bangkok as listed in Table 3. The coordinate system used in this study is WGS 84 UTM zone 47 N and geoid height EGM96.

*Corresponding author (Kritsada Annatakarn). Email: singut51@gmail.com ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9C http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9C.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.165

Figure 3: The Atlas L-band GNSS and GNSS RTK data collection in the central of Thailand (Courtesy of Google).

4. RESULT AND DISCUSSION The results include the processing of L-Band frequency 1545.855MHZ measurement data for accuracy assessment in comparing with post-processing static data.

4.1 L-BAND MEASUREMENT DATA FOR ACCURACY ASSESSMENT The results of the AUSPOS post-process of static data were used as the source of benchmarks for comparing Atlas L-band GNSS results. The results of the AUSPOS post-process of static data are presented in Table 3. The post-process AUSPOS has operated with data collected from CORS in Asia with Orbit type as IGS rapid data. Orbit type IGS rapid data is available after 48 hours after the observation time. All coordinates are based on the IGS realization of the ITRF2014 reference frame with geoid height EGM2008 geoid. Table 3: L-band GNSS measurement compared with the AUSPOS post-process Provinces

Site ID

Ayuthaya AYA Bangkok BKK Chonburi CBI Kanchanaburi KRI Nakhon Nayok NYK Nakhon Pathom NPT Pathumthani PTE Ratchaburi RBR Saraburi SRI Suphanburi SPB1 Samut Songkham SKM Samut Sakhon SKN Suphanburi SPB RMS Confident level (C.L. 95%)

Atlas GNSS L-band Diff. N Diff. E Diff. H 0.018 0.066 0.140 0.014 0.133 0.071 0.022 0.056 0.177 0.015 0.041 0.105 0.050 0.024 0.299 0.007 0.019 0.277 0.005 0.018 0.219 0.047 0.010 0.004 0.024 0.035 0.234 0.026 0.060 0.107 0.010 0.077 0.222 0.026 0.080 0.307 0.005 0.081 0.041 0.021 0.054 0.169 0.009 0.021 0.060

Seksun Pluemsawasd, Kritsada Anantakarn, Rerkchai Fooprateepsiri, Wunchock Kroehong, Boonsap Witchayangkoon

Atlas L-band GNSS frequency 1545.855MHZ measurement results are relatively very good compared with the AUSPOS post-process of static data as displayed in Table 3. With the average of 200 epochs measurement for each site, the RMS differences of L-band data are 0.021m, 0.054m and 0.169m in North, East, and Height respectively.

5. CONCLUSION The study describes the new methodology for applying Atlas L-band GNSS measurement for precise point positioning (PPP) by using a GNSS dual-frequency rover alone. The total test sites are conducted in eleven provinces in the central of Thailand from 09 January to 15 March 2020. The measurement is applied in different survey modes for accessing the accuracy such as Atlas L-band, RTK GNSS with reference to RTSD CORS, and static data for post-processing In comparing with the results from static post-processing from AUSPOS, the RMS differences of L-band data are centimeters for North, East, and decimeters for Height respectively. The Atlas Lband GNSS data is referenced to IGS CORS.

6. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIAL Data in this study can be provided upon contacting the corresponding author.

7. ACKNOWLEDGMENT This research is funded by the Faculty of Engineering and Architecture, Rajamangala University of Technology Tawan-ok.

8. REFERENCES Anantakarn, K., & Witchayangkoon, B. (2019). Accuracy assessment of L-band Atlas GNSS system in Thailand. International Transaction Journal of Engineering Management & Applied Sciences & Technologies, 10(1), 91-98. Anantakarn, K., Sornchomkaew, P., Phothong, T. (2019). Improve Quality of Global DEM for Topographic Mapping: Case Study of Petchaburi Province, Thailand. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. 10(9), 10A09H, 1-9. Hemisphere 2012. Global Correction Services for GNSS. Hemisphere GNSS Whitepaper. 8515 E. Anderson Drive, Scottsdale, AZ 85255, USA Ken D., Michael H., Adrian K., Philip K., Herbert L., Rodrigo L., Matthias M. and Christian P., 2013. Introducing Ambiguity Resolution in Web-hosted Global Multi-GNSS Precise Positioning with Trimble RTX-PP. Trimble TerraSat GmbH, Germany. Rajeswari B. and Christopher R., 2020. Characterization of rain impact on L-Band GNSS-R ocean surface measurements. Remote Sensing of Environment 239 (2020) 111607. Witchayangkoon, B. (2000). Elements of GPS Precise Point Positioning. Ph.D. Thesis, University of Maine, USA. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.3282.6402 Yanming F. and Jinling W., 2008. GPS RTK Performance Characteristics and Analysis. Journal of Global Positioning Systems (2008) 7(1). *Corresponding author (Kritsada Annatakarn). Email: singut51@gmail.com ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9C http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9C.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.165

Yoichi M. and Takashi T., 2007. DGPS, RTK-GPS and StarFire DGPS performance under tree shading. Environments. IEEE Xplore.· DOI: 10.1109/ ICITECH-NOLOGY. 2007.4290370 Seksun Pluemsawasd is a Lecturer at the Department of Construction Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Architectures, Rajamongala University of Technology Tawan-ok, Uthenthawai Campus, Thailand. He earned his Bachelor of Engineering (Civil Engineering) from Faculty of Engineering Rajamangala Institute of Engineering. He received a scholarship to pursue a Master’s degree study in Civil Engineering at Rajamongala University of Technology Tawan-ok, Uthenthawai Campus. His research focuses on the area of GPS/GNSS and Spatial Technology. Dr. Kritsada Anantakarn is a Lecturer at the Department of Civil Engineering Technology, Faculty of Engineering and Architectures, Rajamongala University of Technology Tawan-ok, Uthenthawai Campus, Thailand. He earned his Bachelor of Engineering (Civil Engineering) from Faculty of Engineering Rajamangala Institute of Engineering, and a Master’s degree in Urban and Environmental Planning from King Mongkut's Institute of Technology Ladkrabang, and his PhD from Thammasat University. He is interested in GPS/GNSS and Spatial Technology.

Dr. Rerkchai Fooprateepsiri is an Associate Professor and President of Rajamangala University of Technology Tawan-ok. He got his Master’s degree in Computer Engineering. He earned his PhD in Information Technology both from Mahanakorn University of Technology. His research focuses on the Area of Computer Engineering, Computer Vision and Data Analysis.

Dr. Wunchock Kroehong is a Lecturer at the Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Architectures, Rajamongala University of Technology Tawan-ok, Uthenthawai Campus, Thailand. He earned his Bachelor of Engineering (Civil Engineering) from Faculty of Engineering Rajamangala Institute of Engineering, and a Master’s degree from the school of Civil Engineering at the Mahanakorn University of Technology, and his Ph.D. from the Suranaree University of Technology. He is interested in Concrete, Geopolymer, and Durability. Dr. Boonsap Witchayangkoon is an Associate Professor at the Department of Civil Engineering, Thammasat University. He received his B.Eng. from the King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi with Honors in 1991. He continued his Ph.D. study at the University of Maine, USA, where he obtained his Ph.D. in Spatial Information Science & Engineering. His research encompasses Emerging Technology to Civil Engineering Applications.

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Seksun Pluemsawasd, Kritsada Anantakarn, Rerkchai Fooprateepsiri, Wunchock Kroehong, Boonsap Witchayangkoon

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A9D

EFFECTS OF SOIL DOMAIN SIZE ON TORSIONAL RESPONSE OF OFFSHORE PLATFORM Abdulameer Qasim Hasan

, Rafi M. Qasim

Department of Environmental and Pollution Engineering, Basra Engineering Technical College, Southern Technical University, Basra, IRAQ. 2 Department of Fuel and Energy Engineering, Basra Engineering Technical College, Southern Technical University, Basra, IRAQ. ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 12 December 2019 Received in revised form 18 February 2020 Accepted 04 March 2020 Available online 24 March 2020

The main target of this work deals with the investigation of the dynamic behavior of offshore platform structure to the torsional load which produces from two ships collision load in opposite direction considering the impact of soil size domain. The ABAQUS software is employed to achieve the structural response considering soil-pile-offshore platform interaction. Two soil models are adopted in this study and these Keywords: Offshore platform; Ship models are elastic model and elastoplastic model, while this study adopted collision force; Soil-Pile six soil size domains as a function of pile diameter and these sizes are (4D,6D,8D,10D,12D,14D) where D represent pile diameter. The interaction; Pile foundation; investigation includes pile response and can be described by Elastoplastic soil; displacement, twist angle, shear force, bending moment, and shear stress. Elastic soil; Two ships Also, the displacement of deck slab variation with time is investigated. collision load. The investigation illustrates that always the response of piles which comprises displacement, twist angle, shear force, bending moment and shear stress is higher when the pile foundation embedded in elastoplastic soil as compared with elastic soil, also the variation in deck slab response is higher when the pile foundation embedded in elastoplastic soil as compared with elastic soil. It is evident from the result as the soil domain size increases the response of piles and deck slab decrease regardless of the soil model. Disciplinary: Civil & Geotechnical Engineering. ©2020 INT TRANS J ENG MANAG SCI TECH.

1. INTRODUCTION With rapid development in offshore engineering, a large number of the platform are being constructed and installed in the marine environment, the fixed steel jacket platform is the most commonly used. The work [1] studied the response of an offshore platform to the impact load from a ship by adopting the finite element method. The ABAQUS software is used for structural problem *Corresponding author (A.Q.Hasan, R.M.Qasim). A.almubarak@stu.edu.iq, Rafi.mohammed@stu.edu.iq ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9D http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9D.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.166

analysis, their study considered soil-pile-structure interaction, also their study is concerned with lateral displacement of the pile, the twist angle of the pile, shear force and bending moment distribution of the pile respectively, Also displacement of deck slab is investigated. In [2] investigated the Um-Qaser dolphin structure behavior to the lateral impact load. The investigation comprises the impact of pile dimensions and soil properties on the structural response to the ship impact load however the simulation of soil described as an elastic-plastic model. The studied [3] observed the jacket platform collapse behavior under impact load which applied from the ship by using ANSYS software and compare the result obtained from ANSYS software with a theoretical formula that depends on a rigid plastic mechanism approach. Work [4] investigated the behavior of the dolphin of Khor AL-Amaya berth No.8 to the force of the ship berthing considering the influence of soil-pile interface on dynamic response. In [5], the dynamic behavior of the offshore structure was investigated under combined load, these loads are wave load and ship impact, also soil-pile interaction is considered in this work. The study [6] analyzed the dolphin of Khor AL-Amaya berth No.8 to the impact load from the berthing from an oil tanker of 330000 DWT at 60% cargo. The study [7] focused on the tubes' dynamic behavior to the lateral excitation and obtained that preloading lead to a much more essential altered in a beam-column cylindrical member dynamic properties, in which global buckling is more significant than in member with a low-aspect-ratio. In [8], the steel tube's behavior was investigated under lateral quasistatic loads at their mid-span considering the variation in end conditions types. They found that the axial preload have a substantial influence on the load-bearing capacity for the dissipation of energy was effected dramatically. This work main target investigates numerically the impact of soil size domain on the structural response of offshore platform considering soil-pile interaction and deck slab response when the offshore platform under torsional load resulting from two ships collision load that is applied in the opposite direction at the platform deck slab. The ABAQUS software is employed to model and simulate this study to observe the structural response considering the soil-pile-structure interaction.

2. PROBLEM FORMULATION This work studies the response of an offshore platform to the impact load from the ship during berthing. The ABAQUS software is employed to examine the response of the offshore structure to the ship's impact under the effect of changing the soil size domain dimensions. It investigates 123456-

The influence of soil size domain on pile displacement. The influence of soil size domain on pile rotation. The influence of soil size domain on pile shear force. The influence of soil size domain on pile bending moment. The influence of soil size domain on pile shear stress. The influence of soil size domain on deck displacement.

The soil-pile-structure system can be modeled by using the suiTable required elements. Beam element B32 (Timoshenko beam): it is a beam has three nodes, this beam is utilized to model piles and structure with linear elastic properties of a material. Brick element C3D20: it is a brick solid element that has 20 nodes and it is used for soil model with linear and nonlinear properties of soil, the soil nonlinear properties are represented by adopting Mohr-Coulomb. Two different continua finite elements are used to model the soil. The elastic soil model

Abdulameer Qasim Hasan, Rafi M. Qasim

required soil modulus of elasticity and Poisson's ratio to perform the analysis while the elastoplastic soil model required modulus of elasticity, cohesion, and Poisson ratio to perform the analysis. The coulomb criteria are given as [9]. |đ?&#x153;?đ?&#x153;?| â&#x2030;¤ đ?&#x153;&#x17D;đ?&#x153;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A; tan â&#x2C6;&#x2026; + đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?

(1),

đ??¸đ??¸đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; = 500 Ă&#x2014; đ??śđ??śđ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘

(2),

where đ?&#x153;?đ?&#x153;? is shear stress, đ?&#x153;&#x17D;đ?&#x153;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A; is effective normal stress, đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;? is cohesion, and â&#x2C6;&#x2026; is the internal angle of shearing friction. The elasticity modulus of clay soils can be considered as a constant value with soil depth (10), it is also regarded as proportional to the cohesion of soil according to [11, 12].

in which đ??śđ??śđ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ is the undrained clay soil shear strength. The consideration of structure-foundation-soil system interaction altered the real behavior of the structure as compared with considering the structure alone [13]. Three criteria must be satisfied in the design of offshore piles and pile group [14] a-suitable lateral and axial capacities. bacceptable response in load-deformation. c- feasibility of installation of the piles. The boundary of the soil must be set at a sufficient distance from the edge of the pile, this distance should be sufficiently large but not less than a distance equal to at least five times the diameter of the pile or out of the load area of the envelope [15, 11].

2.1 BOUNDARY CONDITION It indicates that the entire soil domain is considered fixed while the top of the soil is considered free. Six different soil size domains are considered in this study and express in terms of pile diameter and these distance are 4D, 6D, 8D, 10D, 12D, and 14D. For more clarification, the distance 4D represents the distance measured from pile to soil boundary, also represent the distance measured from the end of the pile to the soil boundary. A full bond is adopted to make the required linkage between piles and soil. The damping ratio is utilized to perform the required analysis of the whole system equal to 0.05.

2.2 LOADING CONDITION Lateral collision loads from two ships are applied in opposite directions at a platform deck slab to generate the torsion in the platform structure. Overall, it is required to assess the response of the offshore structure platform considering soil- pile-structure interaction.

Figure 1: the side view of the whole system

Figure 2: the top view of the whole system

*Corresponding author (A.Q.Hasan, R.M.Qasim). A.almubarak@stu.edu.iq, Rafi.mohammed@stu.edu.iq ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9D http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9D.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.166

Figure 1 illustrates the side view of the whole system, Figure 2 illustrates the top view of the whole system, Figure 3 illustrates the top view of platform structure and Figure 4 illustrates the whole system. Table 1 includes all the elements of structure with its dimensions, Table 2 includes the soft clay soil and steel pipe properties that are adopted in the analysis of the current work and Table 3 comprises the applied ship collision load with time.

Figure 3: Top view of the platform structure.

Figure 4: Whole system.

Table 1: the dimensions of the offshore platform elements. Element Piles Beams Piles head beam Brace Deck

Diameter (mm) 1000 600 700 500 600

Thickness (mm) 25 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7

Table 2: Properties of soft clay soil and steel pipe. Material Soft clay soil Steel

Elastic modulus (MPa) 12 200000

PoissonÂ´s ratio 0.4 0.3

Cohesion (KPa) 24

Density (Kg/m3) 1800

Table 3: Ship impact force variation with time. Time (sec) 0 2 13 15

Load (KN) 0 2500 2300 0

3. RESULT AND DISCUSSION Figure 5 shows the variation in lateral displacement of the pile (P1) which embedded in soft clay soil where the soil has elastic properties, while Figure 6 illustrates the variation in lateral displacement of the pile (P1) which embedded in soft clay soil where the soil has elastoplastic properties. It is clear from figures that the maximum pile head displacement occurs when the pile embedded in elastoplastic soil as compared with elastic soil. Also, Figure 7 shows the variation in lateral displacement of the pile (P2) which embedded in soft clay soil where the soil has elastic properties, while Figure 8 illustrates the variation in lateral displacement of the pile (P2) which embedded in soft clay soil where the soil has elastoplastic properties. It is clear from figures that the

Abdulameer Qasim Hasan, Rafi M. Qasim

maximum pile head displacement occurs when the pile embedded in elastoplastic soil as compared with elastic soil. This happens because of the excess in elastic model stiffness as compared with the elastoplastic model. It is evident from figures as the soil size domain increases the pile response decreases, this is due to an interaction between travel waves and reflected waves and the fluctuation in energy transfer from soil to piles with depth will reflect on the pile's response.

Figure 5: Lateral displacement of P1 pile embedded in soft clay soil with elastic properties

Figure 6: Lateral displacement of P1 pile embedded in soft clay soil with elastoplastic properties

Figure 7: lateral displacement of P2 pile embedded in elastic soft clay soil.

Figure 8: lateral displacement of P2 pile embedded in elastoplastic soft clay soil.

Figure 9: Rotation of the embedded P1 piles embedded in elastic soft clay soil

Figure 10: Rotation of the embedded P1 piles embedded in elastoplastic soft clay soil.

Figures 9 and 11 show the rotation of the embedded piles (P1 and P2) in elastic soft clay soil and Figures 10 and 12 show the rotation of the embedded piles (P1 and P2) in elastoplastic soft clay soil. It is obvious from figures that the rotation (twist angle) of piles embedded in the elastoplastic model is higher as compared with a rotation of piles embedded in the elastic model. This happens because of the difference in stiffness between the elastic model and the elastoplastic model. This is clear from figures as the soil size domain increases the pile rotation decreases, this is due to the interaction between travel waves and reflected waves and the fluctuation in the transfer of energy from soil to piles with depth will reflect on the response of the piles.

Figure 11: Rotation of the embedded P2 piles embedded in elastic soft clay soil

Abdulameer Qasim Hasan, Rafi M. Qasim

Figure 12: Rotation of the embedded P2 piles embedded in elastoplastic soft clay soil.

Figures 13 and 15 illustrate the shear force along with the piles embedded in elastic soft clay soil while Figures 14 and 16 illustrate the shear force along with the piles embedded in elastoplastic soft clay soil. It appears that the behavior of piles in elastic soil is not the same behavior of piles in elastoplastic soil, also the values of shear force for piles embedded in elastoplastic soil is higher as compare with piles embedded in elastic soil. The variation in behavior depends on soil stiffness and size of the soil domain, these factors which dominate the piles' response.

Figure 13: Shear force along with the P1 piles embedded in elastic soft clay soil

Figure 14: Shear force along with the P1 piles embedded in elastoplastic soft clay soil.

Figure 15: Shear force along with the P2 piles embedded in elastic soft clay soil

Figure 16: Shear force along with the P2 piles embedded in elastoplastic soft clay soil.

Figures 17 and 19 illustrate the bending moment along with the piles embedded in elastic soft clay soil while Figures 18 and 20 illustrate the bending moment along with the piles embedded in elastoplastic soft clay soil. It appears that the behavior of piles in elastic soil is not the same behavior of piles in elastoplastic soil, also the values of bending moment for piles embedded in elastoplastic soil is higher as compare with piles embedded in elastic soil. The variation in behavior depends on soil stiffness and size of the soil domain, these factors which dominate the piles' response.

Figure 17: Bending moments in the P1 piles embedded in elastic soft clay soil

Figure 18: Bending moments in P1 piles embedded in elastoplastic soft clay soil.

Figure 19: Bending moments in the P1 piles embedded in elastic soft clay soil

Figure 20: Bending moments in P1 piles embedded in elastoplastic soft clay soil.

Abdulameer Qasim Hasan, Rafi M. Qasim

Figure 21: Shear stress in the P1 piles embedded in elastic soft clay soil

Figure 22: Shear stress in P1 piles embedded in elastoplastic soft clay soil.

Figure 23: Shear stress in the P2 piles embedded in elastic soft clay soil

Figure 24: Shear stress in P2 piles embedded in elastoplastic soft clay soil.

Figures 21 and 23 show the shear stress distribution along with the pile depth when the pile embedded in elastic soil, it is obvious that the shear stress starts from the pile head and develop to reach the maximum value and then decreases with depth until it reaches the end of the pile, while. Figures 22 and 24 shows the shear stress distribution along with the pile depth when the pile *Corresponding author (A.Q.Hasan, R.M.Qasim). A.almubarak@stu.edu.iq, Rafi.mohammed@stu.edu.iq ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9D http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9D.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.166

embedded in elastoplastic soil, it is obvious that the shear stress starts from the pile head and develop to reach the maximum value and then decreases with depth until it reaches the end of the pile. It is evident from figures that the values of pile shear stress are higher when the piles embedded in elastoplastic soil as compare with the values when the piles embedded in elastic soli. Also, it is clear from figures as soil domain increase the response of piles decrease due to interaction between travel waves and reflect waves, also the effect of soil domain boundary condition.

Figure 25: Temporal deck displacement (elastic case)

Figure 26: Temporal deck displacement (plastic case) Figure 25 shows the response of deck slab with time (node A) when the piles of platform structure embedded in elastic soil. Figure 26 shows the response of deck slab with time (node A) when the piles embedded in elastoplastic soil. The response of the deck slab describes by the variation in the displacement of node A with time under torsion load that produces from ship impact in the opposite direction. Apparently, the response of deck when the piles embedded in elastoplastic soil is higher compared with the response of deck when piles embedded in elastic soil, this happened due to the difference in stiffness between elastic soil and elastoplastic soil. It is clear from figures as soil domain increases the response of deck slab decrease due to interaction between travel waves and reflect waves, also the effect of soil domain boundary condition.

Abdulameer Qasim Hasan, Rafi M. Qasim

4. CONCLUSION There are main noticeable points from this study. Soil size domain plays a vital role in the response of piles and deck slab regardless of the soil model. The response of piles and deck slab based on and effect by soil model, so the response of piles and deck slab when the supporting soil is described elastoplastic always higher as compare with elastic soil. The torsional load which results from two ships collision in the opposite direction can be considered a significant problem that must be assessed to prevent the structure ultimate capacity losses due to the damage from the ship's impact lateral load. The interaction between travel waves and reflect waves into the soil will dominate the response of the whole offshore platform structure. It is essential to investigate the pile displacement, twist angle, shear force, bending moment, and shear stress to assess and modify the required behavior under damage or any accidental load. The investigation of deck slab behavior under the torsional load considered an important matter because of the ship lateral collision applied directly at the deck slab. The size domain of soil has a major influence on the structural behavior of piles and deck slab.

5. DATA AND MATERIAL AVAILABILITY This study data can be provided upon contacting the corresponding author.

6. REFERENCES [1] Qasim.R.M., Hasan. A.Q. (2020) Investigating the behavior of an offshore platform to ship impact. Civil Engineering Journal, 6(3). [2] Hasan.A.Q. (2016). Dynamic analysis of steel offshore structures considering the effect of soilstructure interaction. Ph.D. Thesis, University of Basrah. [3] Dahiwalkar.V., Solanki. J.G., Behaviour of jacket platform subjected to ship impact. International Journal of Engineering Research & Technology (IJERT), 4(8), 2015. [4] Kadim.A.J., Dynamic analysis of offshore steel structures using the finite element method. Ph.D., Thesis. University of Basrah, 2013. [5] Hussain. A.H., Dynamic analysis of offshore structures using finite element method. M.SC. Thesis. University of Basrah, 2003. [6] Al] Jasim S., Dynamic analysis of offshore template structures with soil] structure interaction, Ph.D., Thesis. University of Basrah, 2000. [7] M. Zeinoddini, J. E. Harding, and G. A. R. Parke. Dynamic behavior of axially pre] loaded tubular steel members of offshore structures subjected to impact damage. Ocean Engineering, 26(10), 963-978, 1999. [8] M. Zeinoddini, J. E. Harding, and G. A. R. Parke, “Effect of impact damage on the capacity of tubular steel members of offshore structures. Marine Structures. 11(4), 141–157, 1998. [9] Naylor. D.J., Pande. G.N., Simpson. B., and Tabb. R. Finite Elements in Geotechnical Engineering. Pineridge Press Swansea, UK, 1981. [10] Poulos H. G. and Davis E. H. Pile Foundation Analysis and Design, Canada: Rainbow Bridge Book, 1980. [11] Bowles J. E. Foundation Analysis and Design, 5th Ed., The McGraw-Hill, 1997. *Corresponding author (A.Q.Hasan, R.M.Qasim). A.almubarak@stu.edu.iq, Rafi.mohammed@stu.edu.iq ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9D http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9D.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.166

[12] Braja M. Das, Principles of Foundation Engineering, 7th Ed., Australia: CENGAGE Learning, 2011. [13] Dutta S.C, Roy R. " A critical review on idealization and modeling for interaction among soil] foundation] structure system" Computers and Structures 80, 1579-1594. 2002. [14] Poulos. H. G., Marine Geotechnics. 1988. [15] Zienkiewics O. C., Lewis R. W., and Stagg K. G., Numerical Methods in Offshore Engineering, USA: John Wiley, 1978. Dr.Abdulameer Qasim Hasan obtained a Ph.D. from the University of Basrah. His research is in Concrete Structures, Offshore Structure; Structural Analysis ; Soil and Foundation Engineering.

Dr. Rafi M. Qasim is with the Department of Fuel and Energy Engineering; Basra Engineering Technical College, Southern Technical University, Basra, IRAQ. His research encompasses Hydraulic Structures, Offshore Structure, Fluid Mechanics, Soil and Foundation Engineering.

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Abdulameer Qasim Hasan, Rafi M. Qasim

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A9E

GENDER ROLE STEREOTYPING AND ENTREPRENEURIAL INTENTION AMONG SAUDI FEMALES Muhammad Ilyas 1

Department of Management & MIS, College of Business Administration, University of Hail, Hail, SAUDI ARABIA.

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Article history: Received 23 December 2019 Received in revised form 23 January 2020 Accepted 02 March 2020 Available online 28 March 2020

This study’s prime objective examines the impacts of entrepreneurial self-efficacy, social culture, and education on entrepreneurial intentions among Saudi Women. Additionally, this study has also examined the mediating role of gender role stereotyping in the relationship between entrepreneurial self-efficacy, social culture, and the education and the entrepreneurial intentions among Saudi Women. The study has employed surveys-based, using questionnaires. The females with entrepreneurship startups during the last three years have chosen as a final sample. The SEM-PLS is employed as a research tool. The findings indicate that entrepreneurial self-efficacy has a significant impact on the entrepreneurial intention among Saudi females. The gender role stereotyping, culture and education all appear as a significant determinant of entrepreneurial intention among Saudi females. The study has highlighted the women contributed to the growth of the economy through establishing SMEs and the creation of jobs. A gap has been identified in existing literature irrespective of the significance of attitudes in entrepreneurial actions, intentions, and success. The study is among the pioneer study on the issues related to gender role stereotyping, culture, and entrepreneurial intention among Saudi females.

Keywords: Women empowerment; Saudi females’ entrepreneurs; Social culture; Entrepreneurial self-efficacy; women in education.

1. INTRODUCTION A key role is played by women in supporting the competitiveness and development of several economies. Almost half of the population is comprised of women in several countries. This 50% of the women population is half of the total potential labor force (Cuberes & Teignier, 2016). However, in some regions, i.e. Southeast Asia, the population of women is more than 50%. At the same time, 25% of women in Europe are doing their businesses. In Russia, 65% of women run their empire. This contribution is significant for any economy in the process of development (Minniti & *Corresponding author (M.Ilyas). Tel: +966-500368487 Email: m.ilyas@uoh.edu.sa ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9E http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9E.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.167

NaudĂŠ, 2010, Koohi & Feizbakhsh, 2018). Entrepreneurship is regarded as an independent activity, based on self-employment. Entrepreneurship is highly crucial for social inclusion, the creation of employment opportunities, and economic growth (Dean et al., 2019). Based on all these reasons, it is important to analyze the advantages of self-employment, improve the level of job satisfaction, and individualism of the economy. The intrinsic motivation is equal in effect with the pull factors. Intrinsic motivation is referred to as the desire for doing a specific activity. It tends to create a significant influence as compared with the push factors (Giddy & Webb, 2018). The existence of entrepreneurs is not exclusively explained by the cultural-institutional and socio-economic conditions. In the same way, the factors of individualized psycho-attitudinal including intention and selfefficiency are crucial and when combined with other variables of attitudes i.e. risk aversion can be highly important in the process of entrepreneurship (Zhang & Cain, 2017). The attitudes specific to the gender of female entrepreneurs have been examined in this research paper. This has been examined by analyzing the stages of entrepreneurship at MSMEs level in KSA (micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (Ahmad, 2012). The key emphasis has been made on the factors related to gender. For two reasons, it is considered important. It has been suggested by research that the number of participating women in the process of entrepreneurship is less as compared with men(Ladge et al., 2019). In the Gulf Cooperation Council region and KSA, the percentage of women participating in business activities is considerably low as compared with global levels. Another reason is the increase in studies on women entrepreneurs over some recent years. Further, there is a need for more studies in the context of developing economies (Yadav & Unni, 2016). It has been highlighted by current studies on gender that several challenges and opportunities are faced by women entrepreneurs (Hashmi, 2019: Melton et al., 2019). Some studies have identified the factors, which influence motivation, and some have highlighted the issues linked with the empowerment of women. The context of this research study is Saudi Arabia, highlighting the women contributed to the growth of the economy through establishing SMEs and the creation of jobs (Sabri & Thomas, 2019). A gap has been identified in existing literature irrespective of the significance of attitudes in entrepreneurial actions, intentions, and success. There is a gap of research on the role and impact of attitudes specific to women entrepreneurs within the context of developing economies. It has been confirmed by studies based on the Arab region that cultural norms and social structure influence the intention of women to run a business (Al Subhi & Smith, 2019). Further, Saudi Arabia women experience at meso and macro levels of the social, institutional, and cultural norms (Syed et al., 2018). Therefore, there is a need to analyze the attitudes of women entrepreneurs regarding the Saudi Vision 2030, per planning for economic reform through improved drivers of growth and diversification. The greater participation of female entrepreneurs in business activity is a key driver, which has been identified (Henning & Akoob, 2017). Moreover, it is considered to analyze the determinants of entrepreneurial intention among females such as subjective norms and entrepreneurial self-efficacy (ESE) (Entrialgo & Iglesias, 2016). Literature has suggested that these two perceptions have a considerable influence on the decision-making among women for starting a new business.

M.Ilyas

2. LITERATURE REVIEW AND CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK 2.1 WOMEN ENTREPRENEURSHIP IN KSA In Saudi Arabia, the entrepreneurship by women has been an area of interest. Traditionally, women in Saudi Arabia have been restricted to contribute to economic growth. A considerable improvement has been seen in this field regarding the status of women. This has been because of the changing vision of the government of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), which supports gender equality and the empowerment of women (Aleidi & Chandran, 2017). A new phase has been marked by the Ninth Development Plan of Kingdom (2010-2014) in development through the provision of improved opportunities for employment of women and motivating them to do jobs. The recent policy of the KSA government based on Vision 2030 has initiated a new phase in the promotion of SME entrepreneurship for the creation of employment opportunities and improving the participation rate of women in the workforce (Denizci et al., 2019). Several initiatives have been launched by the government to improve the roles of women in the economic sector and labor force through entrepreneurship leadership including Aramco Entrepreneurship Center, and Al-Sayedah Khadijah Bint Khuwailid Businesswomen Center. It also includes KACST’s (King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology) Badir. These programs have been formulated to improve entrepreneurial leadership and support its culture among the young generation of Saudi Arabia (Chandran & Aleidi, 2018). The participation of women in these programs or initiatives is growing and is a trending economic potential.

2.2 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK In literature, the model of behavioral intention has been adopted at a wide-scale(Shiau & Chau, 2016). The intentional theory has been adopted by Moghavvemi et al. (2012) to analyze the IT entrepreneurial behavior and its determinants empirically and found that self-efficacy of computers and some other variables could create an influence on the intention of IT entrepreneurship. The intentional theory has been applied by several researchers in their research based on the context of women entrepreneurship (Chandran & Aleidi, 2019). Researchers have made a comparison of intention for business startup and growth between men and women. Moreover, the theory of Liñán and Fayolle (2015) as a standard for study based on cross-culture. The researchers analyzed the perceptions of potential entrepreneurs for both men and women. It was concluded by the researchers that there is low entrepreneurial attract and self-efficacy among women as compared with men. Therefore, it results in the low intention for entrepreneurship. It is important to analyze the intention of female entrepreneurs as a determinant in IT entrepreneurial behavior. 2.2.1 ENTREPRENEURIAL SELF- EFFICACY The concepts of self-efficacy among individuals are linked with the social environment and behavioral intention. The confidence of an individual in self-abilities to become a successful entrepreneur is reflected by the concept of ESE in the field of entrepreneurship (Nowiński et al.,2019). In psychology, this variable has been used as individual differences. It has been suggested by several studies that high ESE in individuals reflect high intention for entrepreneurship. Some researchers have focused on the influence of entrepreneurial beliefs and decisions among individuals by self-efficacy (Crespo et al., 2018). The focus of research based on gender aspects has been on the belief of self-efficacy, skills, and perceptions of abilities from the social aspect and *Corresponding author (M.Ilyas). Tel: +966-500368487 Email: m.ilyas@uoh.edu.sa ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9E http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9E.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.167

female entrepreneurs. In traditional and male-dominant sectors, the literature reveals that the perception of women for entrepreneurial skills is less at times irrespective of their real abilities and skills (Chandran & Aleidi, 2018). The entrepreneurial intention is influenced by this perception, which leads to a low entrepreneurial behavior level. It was observed by some researchers that women feel that the environment is not feasible for them to do entrepreneurship as compared with men. This may create negative consequences for them. Moreover, it has been found in the literature that there are limited career choices for women than men because of the low perception of required capabilities and skills (Derks et al., 2016). It has been suggested by similar studies that opportunities might not be utilized by some women for becoming entrepreneurs. Therefore, women have low self-efficacy for entrepreneurship. It has been revealed by some recent studies that there is a significant and positive influence of ESE on entrepreneurial intention among women. It was found by (Chang et al., 2019) that a strong gender effect, low ESE rate, and intention for entrepreneurship exists among MBA students and female adolescents as compared with men. Alternatively, it was found by Wang et al. (2016) that the relation between entrepreneurial intention and gender is low by the incorporation of self-efficacy. It has been confirmed by some authors that a strong influence is created by high self-efficacy of women entrepreneurs on innovative behavior as compared with low self-efficacy women entrepreneurs. Similarly, it was found by Kazumi and Kawai (2017) that a strong influence is created by self-efficacy on the development of entrepreneurial behavior and intention among women particularly in non-traditional sectors such as technological entrepreneurship. It is important to consider that a considerable role is played by women's perceptions of decision making for starting a new business at the IT level. Therefore, the following hypothesis has been formulated. Hypothesis 1: ESE has a significant impact on the entrepreneurial intention among Saudi entrepreneurship.

2.2.2 SOCIAL CULTURE Social Culture generally, it is assumed that there is high gender inequality in the Arab region. Therefore, difficulties are created by this hindrance in the respect of rights and liberties of women as revealed by some laws. Women in Saudi Arabia are still fighting for their rights. The economy has a clear depiction of gender inequality, as women of all ages require a male guardian (Hales & Hodos, 2010). Saudi Arabia was ranked 130 out of 134 countries based on the index of gender parity in 2009 by the World Economic Forum Global Gender Gap Report (Qureshi, 2014). Several reasons explain that there is a lack of leadership roles for women and gender inequality in Saudi Arabia. The culture of the country does not allow women to reach the positions of leadership. Several obstacles are faced by women, which creates a negative influence on their journey towards such positions. Secondly, even if women get such positions, they experience issues in managing employees particularly men reflecting negative values for them (Howe-Walsh & Turnbull, 2016). Therefore, issues are created in achieving the objectives of the organization. Ultimately, women might be influenced to do wrong decisions in negative circumstances. However, the society of Saudi Arabia is witnessing many changes in terms of women empowerment. Women are appearing as a salesperson, waiters, lawyers, tellers, etc. moreover, in the 2012 London Olympics, women also competed from Saudi Arabia for the first time. The religious and traditional institutions are being changed by the social changes supported by

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modernization (Inglehart & Welzel, 2010). However, the great renaissance was seen for women in the era of King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz AlSaud. He supports women in taking high positions such as Education Minister. Moreover, women are allowed to take part in the parliament of Saudi Arabia and vote for municipal councils. Irrespective of the modernized aspects of Saudi Arab, there is still a lot to do. There is a low percentage of women who support modernity. The policies of gender segregation are supported by conservatives(Giddy & Webb, 2018). Social control is significantly fostered by society and religion. There is still gender segregation by society and state. The variable of social norms refers to the perceived pressure from society such as friends, family, and society in the depiction of entrepreneurial behavior (Zhang & Cain, 2017). The attitude of an individual refers to the level of positive or negative self-evaluation of an individual for becoming an entrepreneur (Hales & Hodos, 2010). It is predicted by the theory that intention for behavior is greater when there is a positive influence of social norms. In this regard, the following hypothesis has been formulated: Hypothesis 2: Social culture has a significant impact on the entrepreneurial intention among Saudi entrepreneurship.

2.2.3 EDUCATION An experience or act, which has a formative influence on the individual’s character, mind, or physical ability, is referred to as Education. It can be regarded as the process of obtaining knowledge during adolescence or childhood (Ormrod & Jones, 2014). When an individual is educated and has access to the optimal mind state, he can think clearly, and behave effectively. Undoubtedly, the knowledge base is created by education and it adds to economic and personal well-being. In Gulf countries, the literacy rate among women (aged 15-24) has reached 100% as per the report of OECD (2014) for Women in Business Report in the Middle East and North Africa Region (Mena). The similar applies to women in Tunisia, Jordan, and Syria. However, it is decreasing to 70-75% in Yemen, Egypt, and Morocco. In some MENA economies, the literacy rate of tertiary education level is not even. However, more than 50% of women in Libya and Lebanon aged 15-24 years have tertiary education (Yadav & Unni, 2016). However, it is just 10% in some economies of MENA. Nowadays, the priority of the Saudi Government is education. The government now considers education as the backbone for economic development. With this realization, important developments have been seen in the education sector of Saudi Arab. The government has established many colleges, schools, and universities. The education is free to the post-secondary level. Moreover, the government gives financial support for male and female students in specific education areas. Free housing and financial support are given to the students of the university. Moreover, books, means, and transportation are given at subsidized rates. For female students, free transportation is given (Sabri & Thomas, 2019). There has been an improvement in the number of students in different educational phases in KSA as per the recent statistics revealed by the Ministry of Education in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The figures estimated in March 2015 reveal that there has been a considerable increase in female students in every university of KSA as compared previously. Similarly, the students’ percentage was between 49-50% during 2006-2007-2008-2009. It was found by the last statistics in 2015 that there are 42.0928 female students out of 66.9271. This makes 63% of the total students in universities in Saudi Arabia. It has been admitted by the Gulf *Corresponding author (M.Ilyas). Tel: +966-500368487 Email: m.ilyas@uoh.edu.sa ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9E http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9E.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.167

Cooperation Council (GCC) that several strides have been made by women in education access particularly in Saudi Arabia and UAE (70 and 60% respectively). Women are sponsored by governments of GCC to study abroad to acquire new skills and capabilities for serving their home country(Al Subhi & Smith, 2019). Hypothesis 3: Education has a significant impact on the entrepreneurial intention among Saudi entrepreneurship. Entrepreneurial Self-Efficacy (ESE)

Gender RoleStereotyping (GRS)

H1, H4

Entrepreneurial Intention H5, H6

(EI)

Social Culture (SC)

H3 Education (ED)

Figure 1: Conceptual Framework 2.2.4 GENDER ROLE- STEREOTYPING OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP Another important aspect of socio-cultural, which influences the intention of entrepreneurship, is Gender. The previous studies on women entrepreneurship and IS have considered it as biological sex. The current research is based on several theories (Syed et al., 2018). The study has taken into account previous studies on gender differences to forecast entrepreneurship intention. The gender variable has been used as a state of psychology and social construct (Melton et al., 2019). The gender stereotypes related to the qualities linked with every sex tell about the job types, which are regarded as suitable for them. These are regarded as feminine and masculine jobs. Traditionally, entrepreneurship is considered as a masculine field, which is dominated by males. There are less women owners of businesses as compared with men (Henning & Akoob, 2017). A relation has been established by scholars of entrepreneurship between entrepreneurial intention and gender stereotypes. Specifically, negative influence can be created on entrepreneurial intention among women by gender stereotyping. This can restrict their ability to acquire human, social, and financial capital. An important role is played by gender stereotypes between the social norms and environmental perception, as well as the intention of entrepreneurship among women. Women can be discouraged by negative perceptions of the creation of new businesses. This is because of the significant impact of societal norms (Aleidi & Chandran, 2017). The role of social norms on the potential of females for entrepreneurship has been examined by some researchers. It was found that this variable could result in low attraction for entrepreneurship and self-efficacy among women than men. Therefore, it influences the intention of entrepreneurship. Moreover, the risk of failure can be created through social norms and negative environmental perception, which may influence the intention of entrepreneurship (Chandran & Aleidi, 2018). It can be observed that an important role is played by social norms in the IT entrepreneurial intention among women. This statement is in line with the assertion of Cuberes and Teignier (2016) from IS perspective, which states that women are influenced by the IT subjective norms perceptions and intention to use IT. Therefore, this concept is crucial for consideration (Henning & Akoob, 2017). Therefore, the

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developed hypotheses are Hypothesis 4: ESE has a significant impact on the Gender Role- Stereotyping among Saudi entrepreneurship. Hypothesis 5: Gender Role Stereotyping has a significant entrepreneurial intention among Saudi entrepreneurship.

impact

the

Hypothesis 6: Gender Role Stereotyping mediates the relationship between the ESE and entrepreneurial intention among Saudi entrepreneurship.

Figure 1 shows the conceptual model of this study.

3. METHODOLOGY In this surveys-based study, the data is collected with the aid of questionnaires. The females with entrepreneurship startups during the last three years have chosen as a final sample, with a random sampling procedure. The questionnaire is distributed among 430 respondents. The responses were 47.5 percent, considerably higher than the threshold level of 30 percent (Basheer et al., 2018: Hafeez et al., 2018). The SEM-PLS is employed to analyze the collected data.

3.1 MEASUREMENT EI was measured by six items using a seven-point Likert scale and is adopted from Miralles et al. (2016). The construct of ESE has been measured by using a six-item scale taken from NowiĹ&#x201E;ski et al. (2019). The 12-item gender role-stereotyping is adopted from Eriksson et al., (2017). Scale related to social culture and entrepreneurship is adopted from Shin (2018). The scale of education is adopted from Pahurkar (2009).

Figure 2: Measurement Model.

4. ANALYSIS The SEM-PLS comprises two steps namely the measurement model and the structural model (Muneer et al., 2019). The earlier, evaluate the reliability of items, scales, and variables used in the current study. Whereas the latter is used to determine the path coefficient between and among the variables. Figure 2 shows the measurement model of this study. The individual item reliability is accessed that the items with loadings less than 0.70 are *Corresponding author (M.Ilyas). Tel: +966-500368487 Email: m.ilyas@uoh.edu.sa ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9E http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9E.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.167

deleted. The items namely EI-2, GRS-3, and GRS-17 are deleted from the analysis. Table 1: Outer Loadings. Variables

Education (EDU)

Entrepreneurial Intention (EI)

Entrepreneurial self-efficacy (ESE)

General Role of Stereotyping of Entrepreneurship (GRS)

Social Culture (SC)

EDU1 EDU2 EDU3 EDU4 EI1 EI3 EI4 EI5 EI6 ESE1 ESE2 ESE3 ESE4 ESE5 ESE6 GRS1 GRS10 GRS11 GRS12 GRS2 GRS4 GRS5 GRS6 GRS8 GRS9 SC1 SC2 SC3 SC4 SC5 SC6 SC7 SC8

EDU 0.934 0.910 0.889 0.900

ESE

GRS

0.874 0.903 0.888 0.902 0.871 0.887 0.894 0.899 0.884 0.915 0.884 0.848 0.816 0.894 0.900 0.835 0.912 0.889 0.916 0.879 0.854 0.908 0.852 0.914 0.891 0.910 0.859 0.824 0.865

The reliability of the model is accessed through the measures namely the Cronbachâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s alpha, composite reliability (CR), and average variance extracted. Table 2, the reliability analysis results revealed the fact that all three measures are above the threshold levels and there is no issue of reliability in our study. Table 2: Reliability Variable EDU EI ESE GRS SC

Cronbach's Alpha 0.929 0.933 0.950 0.966 0.958

rho_A 0.932 0.936 0.951 0.967 0.959

CR 0.950 0.949 0.960 0.970 0.964

(AVE) 0.825 0.788 0.799 0.765 0.772

Fornell and Larckerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s (1981) criterion was adopted to assess discriminant validity, that the upper diagonal values of the validity matrix must be higher than lower values.

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Table 3: Discriminant Validity EDU 0.908 0.847 0.786 0.715 0.673

EDU EI ESE GRS SC

ESE

GRS

0.888 0.616 0.685 0.642

0.894 0.694 0.616

0.875 0.728

0.878

The bootstrapping procedure is employed to examine the path coefficient. The 500 bootstraps are used to examine the structural relationship between and among the variables (Junoha et al., 2019). The findings indicate that, all the paths namely EDU  EI, ESE  EI, ESE  GRS, GRS  EI, and SC  EI are significant at p-value less than 0.05. Table 4: Direct Relationships EDU  EI ESE  EI ESE  GRS GRS  EI SC  EI

(O) 0.089 0.335 0.694 0.379 0.240

Mean 0.093 0.325 0.694 0.380 0.248

SD 0.131 0.213 0.064 0.156 0.167

(|O/SD) 3.681 3.574 10.770 3.434 3.438

p-values <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001

The mediating role of GRS in the relationship between ESE and EI is also examined. The mediating path ESE  GRS  EI is also significant at p-value less than 0.05. The R-square value of the current study is above the threshold value (see Table 6). Table 5: Mediation Mediation ESE  GRS  EI

(O) 0.263

Mean 0.263

SD 0.111

(|O/SD|) 2.372

p-values 0.009

Table 6: R-square EI GRS

R Square 0.515 0.482

The hypotheses adopted for this research, the p-values are less than 0.05 indicating statistically significant. Thus all the research hypotheses are accepted.

5. CONCLUSION In this research, theoretical foundations have been provided by two main streams of literature. The first stream is based on the female entrepreneurship literature, depicting roles of intention for entrepreneurship and its determinants, i.e. social norms and gender stereotypes. The second stream is the information systems literature, highlighting the significance and role of two factors specific to context including expertise and knowledge in technology and IT innovativeness. These two key factors determine intention for entrepreneurship in the field of technological entrepreneurship. The findings indicate that ESE has a significant impact on the entrepreneurial intention among Saudi females. The gender role stereotyping, culture and education all appear as a significant determinant of entrepreneurial intention among Saudi females. Researchers can explore several variables *Corresponding author (M.Ilyas). Tel: +966-500368487 Email: m.ilyas@uoh.edu.sa ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9E http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9E.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.167

including attitudes to obtain an in-depth understanding of intention through socio-psychological theories. Intentional and planned behavior is represented by entrepreneurship. Therefore, research can be done through formal models of entrepreneurial intention. A broad theory of human behavior proposed by Zhang et al. (2014) refers to the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB).

6. DATA AND MATERIAL AVAILABILITY This study data can be provided upon contacting the corresponding author.

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*Corresponding author (M.Ilyas). Tel: +966-500368487 Email: m.ilyas@uoh.edu.sa ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9E http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9E.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.167

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International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A9F

DETERMINANTS OF CAPITAL STRUCTURE: EVIDENCE FROM VIETNAM INDUSTRIAL FIRMS Thu-Trang Thi Doan 1

Faculty of Finance and Banking, Industrial University of Ho Chi Minh City (IUH), VIETNAM.

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 26 December 2019 Received in revised form 24 February 2020 Accepted 09 March 2020 Available online 24 March 2020

The paper observes the factors affecting the capital structure of 102 industrial firms listed on the Vietnam stock market for 2008-2018. The study used table data methods including Pooled Regression (Pooled OLS), Fixed effects model (FEM), Random effects model (REM). Afterward, the Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) is adopted to test the hypotheses and control autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity, and Keywords: potential endogeneity issues. The results reveal the positive impact of Capital structure; firm size and previous capital structure on the current capital structure. M&M theorem; Also, they report that liquidity, tangibility, firm profitability, and foreign Industrial companies; The dynamic panel data; ownership are negatively correlated to capital structure. The study GMM; Firm profitability; greatly contributes towards the enrichment of empirical evidence on Firm size; Firm liquidity; capital structure in the industry. Firm tangibility; Firm foreign ownership.

1. INTRODUCTION An earlier study of Modilligani and Miller (1958) suggested that capital structure does not affect the firm’s market value in a well-functioning market. Firms with similar business risk and expected rate of return share the same firm value regardless of the differences in how their capital is structured. Therefore, should financial managers pay attention to their firms’ debt policy or capital structure in a well-functioning market? With the presence of the imperfection in the capital market, it is always necessary to calculate how firms should utilise their loans, issue bonds, stock or use their remaining profit for the optimal capital structure. Accordingly, many scholars have developed other trade-off, pecking order, and agency theories in the effort to explain how the capital structure works in reality. In the recognition of its importance in financial management, many empirical studies try to examine the plausibility of these theoretical models. These studies are divided into two mainstreams which are examining the impact of capital structure on firm value and identifying determinants of capital structure. However, these studies have spotlighted developed countries, not emerging economies. *Corresponding author (Thu-Trang Thi Doan). Email: doanthithutrang@iuh.edu.vn ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9F http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9F.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.168

As an emerging country, Vietnam has not only opportunities but also challenges thanks to international integration (Doan, 2020). Also, its firms cannot avoid facing big challenges that capital structure is one of the big concerns of financial managers. How is capital structured? How much should equity be? How much should they loan? Should they issue bonds or utilise their remaining profit for the optimal effect? As a result, research on the capital structure of industrial firms in Vietnam contributes both theoretical and practical values. This paper aims to explain the theory of capital structure as well as identify determinants of capital structure among industrial firms in Vietnam. The study identifies how these determinants influence capital structure decisions, thereby making suitable decisions on how capital is structured for good firm performance.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW Capital structure: The theory of Modigliani and Miller (M&M theorem) is the foundation of other studies on capital structure theories. M&M theorem is stated into 2 basic propositions. Meanwhile, the first proposition assumes on the valuation of a firm, the second one assumes on the capital cost. These propositions are respectively considered in environments with taxes and no taxes. On the other hand, Modilligani and Miller also assume that the capital market is perfect, so transaction and bankruptcy cost are nil. According to Modigliani and Miller (1958), using more debt brings the owner higher profitability ratios which are exactly what they compensate for a higher risk in the debt-equity ratio in return. Alternatively, the valuation of firms using debt is equal to one of the firms using no debt. With a firm income tax, the value of a firm increases as its debt ratio increases (Modigliani & Miller, 1963). Because interest expenses are a reasonable expense deducted when calculating firm income tax, a portion of the firm's income goes to investors. In general, the above statements are assumed on the propositions of the perfect market. However, these hypotheses are difficult to perform in reality, thereby constraining the application of the M&M theorem. Static Trade-off Theory: Following the M&M theorem, Kraus and Litzenberger (1973) developed static trade-off theory. According to this theory, firms set different targets on debt-equity ratios for the optima firm benefits. The firm's capital structure is determined by the trade-off between the benefits of tax shields and the cost of exhaustion. The trade-off theory can explain the differences in capital structure among different firms and fields. Nevertheless, this theory is sufficient to explain the low debt ratio of big successful firms. Pecking Order Theory: The first foundation of pecking order theory is the studies of Donaldson (1961). The pecking order theory primarily considers the impact of information asymmetry on firmsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; investment and financing decisions (Myers and Majluf; 1984). Information between managers and investors is disproportionate, which can lead to an increase in the costs of external sources of finances. Hence, these firms prefer to use internal sources to external ones. This is why big and successful firms tend to have a low debt ratio. Agency Cost Theory: Agency cost arises due to conflicts of interest among firm parties. There are two types of conflict: between owners and management; between owners and creditors (Jensen & Meckling, 1976). The management intends to invest in risky businesses to bring shareholders more profits. However, the failure of the investment can bring borrowers more risks, so shareholders only accept limited liability. From the agency cost theory, the optimal capital structure is determined by reducing agency costs. Further, the debt allocation in capital structure is a good way to minimise agency costs (Jensen (1986). More specifically, this provides the borrowers with a right to obtain part of their capital in case the firm is not able to afford interest and initial loan.

Thu-Trang Thi Doan

In this section, we will examine the impact of firm profitability, tangibility, liquidity, firm size, foreign ownership on capital structure. Firm profitability: There is a close relationship between firm profitability and capital structure. From the trade-off theory, vastly profitable firms tend to have financial distress at a low cost. Benefits from the tax shield encourage the firm to borrow more. Conversely, according to the pecking order theory, profitability has a negative impact on the debt ratio. Because firms with high profitability will prefer to use internal capital. Thus, the findings vary considerably between specific situations. A majority of earlier scholars who are Bauer (2004), Baharuddin et al. (2011), Tongkong (2012), Ajanthan (2013), Chang et al. (2014), Wahab and Ramli (2014), Acaravci (2015), Le and Tannous (2016), Windayu (2016), Vuran et al. (2017), Cevheroglu-Acar (2018), Thai (2018), and Li and Islam (2019) in particular support the trade-off theory. Their results affirm the reverse influence of profitability on capital structure. Conversely, with their analyses, Moosa and Li (2012), and Agrawal and Singh (2014) affirmed that profitability is concurrently related to how capital is structured. In Vietnam, the author expects that there is a negative impact of firm profitability on the capital structure of industrial firms. Therefore, the following assumption is proposed: H1: Firm profitability negatively affects the capital structure of industrial firms. Firm size: According to the trade-off theory, firm size exerts concurrent influence on capital structure. Particularly, big size firms with and diversified portfolios have lower financial exhaustion costs and better access to financial organizations than a small firm. This eventually encourages firms to borrow more. Many studies corroborate this parameter including those of Baharuddin et al. (2011), Moosa and Li (2012), Tongkong (2012), Agrawal and Singh (2014), Chang et al. (2014), Wahab and Ramli (2014), Le and Tannous (2016), Vuran et al. (2017), Thai (2018) and Li and Islam (2019). Conservely, Windayu (2016) confirmed that firm size is inversely correlated to capital structure. Acaravci (2015) also found the positive and negative impact of firm size on capital structure. In particular, this impact is negative with firms in sectors of fabricated metal products, machinery and equipment, and positive with the rest sectors. In Vietnam, the author expects a positive impact of firm size on the capital structure of industrial firms. Therefore, the assumption is proposed: H2: Firm size positively affects the capital structure of industrial firms. Tangibility: Most researches on capital structure show the relationship between tangibility and capital structure of the firm. According to the trade-off and pecking order theory, tangibility is positively associated with capital structure. By their recent analyses, Baharuddin et al. (2011), Jame-Kausar (2012), Moosa and Li (2012), Agrawal and Singh (2014), Chang et al. (2014), Wahab and Ramli (2014), Cevheroglu-Acar (2018) and Thai (2018) support this hypothesis. On the other hand, Acaravci (2015), Windayu (2016) and Li and Islam (2019) support the agency cost theory. The results of these studies show a negative correlation between tangibility and capital structure. In Vietnam, the author expects that there is a negative impact between tangibility on the capital structure of industrial firms. So, the assumption is proposed: H3: Tangibility negatively affects the capital structure of industrial firms. Liquidity: Liquidity represents the ability to pay short-term liabilities, and is measured by short-term assets divided by short-term liabilities. Research on the impact of liquidity on capital structure reveals different results. A majority of the studies affirm the reverse influence of liquidity on capital structure (Moosa & Li, 2012; Wahab & Ramli, 2014; Le & Tannous, 2016; Cevheroglu*Corresponding author (Thu-Trang Thi Doan). Email: doanthithutrang@iuh.edu.vn ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9F http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9F.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.168

Acar, 2018). Differently, Pahuja and Sahi (2015) reported that liquidity is concurrently related to capital structure. In Vietnam, the author expects a negative impact between liquidity on the capital structure of industrial firms. Thus, the assumption is proposed as H4: Liquidity negatively affects the capital structure of industrial firms. Foreign ownership: In emerging countries, foreign ownership is considered as the most essential element in a firm’s capital structure. According to Le & Tannous (2016) and Thai (2018), foreign ownership is negatively correlated to the capital structure. These firms have access to diverse sources of capital and the ability to control excessive investments. In Vietnam, the author expects a negative impact of foreign ownership on the capital structure of industrial firms. Therefore, the assumption is given H5: Foreign ownership negatively affects the capital structure of industrial firms. Capital structure in the previous year: The current capital structure is relevant to capital structure in the past and the hypothesis that the adjustment in capital structure does not raise any expense is unreal (Gaud et al., 2005). The author expects a positive impact on the capital structure in the previous year on the current capital structure of industrial firms. Hence, H6: Capital structure in the previous year positively affects the current capital structure of industrial firms.

3. DATA AND METHODOLOGY The study employs audited financial statements data available from websites of 102 listed industrial firms in Vietnam for 2008-2018. Following Gaud et al. (2005), the author employs dynamic panel data to examine the factors affecting the capital structure of industrial firms. Pooled Regression (Pooled OLS), both Fixed effects model (FEM) and Random effects model (REM), and Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) are selected to test the hypotheses and control issues on autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity and potential endogeneity. The estimated model is given as CSit = β0 + β1 CSi(t-1) + β2 FSit + β3 LIQit + β4 TANGit + β5 FPit + β6 FOit + εit.

(1).

Table 1: Summary of variables in the study model. No

Variable

Method of calculation Dependent variable

1 1 2 3 4 5 6

CSit

Capital structure

Total debt/ total assets

Independent variables CSi(t-1) Capital structure in the previous year Total debt in year t-1 / total assets in year t-1 FSit Firm size The logarithm of total assets LIQit Liquidity Current assets/ current liabilities TANGit Tangibility Fixed assets/ total assets FPit Firm profitability Net profit/ total assets FOit Foreign ownership Ordinary shares held by foreign investors/ shares outstanding

All the β terms are the model regression coefficient and ε represents the error term.

4. RESULT AND DISCUSSION 4.1 RESULT The correlation among variables, Table 2 indicates that FS is positively correlated to CSt while

Thu-Trang Thi Doan

other independent variables are negatively related to CSt. Table 2: Correlation coefficients among variables Variable CSt CSt-1 FS LIQ TANG FP FO

CSt 1.000 0.922 0.259 -0.632 -0.204 -0.453 -0.199

CSt-1

LIQ

TANG

1.000 0.243 -0.587 -0.180 -0.395 -0.197

1.000 -0.151 0.212 -0.017 0.294

1.000 -0.077 0.349 0.000

1.000 -0.045 0.123

1.000 0.179

1.000

The author uses panel data regression models including Pooled Regression (Pooled OLS), Fixed effects model (FEM) and Random effects model (REM). Results of F test (F(101, 912) = 3.80 at the significance level of 1%) and Hausman test (chi2(6) = 394.46 at the significance level of 1%) show that FEM is more suitable. Therefore, the FE model is chosen for the analysis. (Table 3) Table 3: Results of Pooled OLS, FEM, REM models CS Constant CSt-1 FS LIQ TANG FP FO R2 Significance level

Pooled OLS -0.184*** 0.747*** 0.033*** -0.015*** -0.100*** -0.259*** -0.055*** 88.10% F(6, 1013) = 1250.14 Prob > F = 0.000***

F test Hausman test

FEM REM -0.607*** -0.186*** 0.465*** 0.745*** 0.085*** 0.034*** -0.023*** -0.015*** -0.200*** -0.100*** -0.288*** -0.260*** -0.106*** -0.056*** 84.57% 88.10% F(6, 912) = 220.14 Wald chi2(6) = 7403.78 Prob > F = 0.000*** Prob > chi2 = 0.000*** F(101, 912) = 3.80 Prob > F = 0.000*** chi2(6) = 394.46 Prob > chi2 = 0.000***

Table 4. Results of Multicollinearity, Heteroscedasticity and Autocorrelation tests Multicollinearity test Variable

VIF

CSt-1 2.11 FS 1.33 LIQ 1.69 TANG 1.20 FP 1.26 FO 1.24 Mean VIF = 1.47

Heteroscedasticity test

Autocorrelation test

chi2 (102) = 1065.15 Prob > chi2 = 0.000***

F(1, 101) = 105.295 Prob > F = 0.000***

Table 4 shows that the research model has multicollinearity is considered not serious. However, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation issues really exist. Hence, the paper uses a GMM estimator for the analysis. This is because GMM allows restricting autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity, and potential endogeneity issues (Doytch & Uctum, 2011).

*Corresponding author (Thu-Trang Thi Doan). Email: doanthithutrang@iuh.edu.vn ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9F http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9F.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.168

Table 5. Model estimation results by GMM method CS Constant CSt-1 FS LIQ TANG FP FO Significance level Number of instruments Number of groups Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences Sargan test

Coef. P>|z| -1.058 0.039** 0.116 0.052* 0.173 0.000*** -0.055 0.000*** -0.757 0.000*** -0.215 0.005*** -1.011 0.001*** Wald chi2(5) = 7188.22 Prob > chi2 = 0.000*** 11 102 Pr > z = 0.110 Prob > chi2 = 0.475

The result of the Sargan test reveals that adopted instruments are valid. Meanwhile, the Arellano-Bond test shows that there is no autocorrelation among errors. Thus, the model is appropriate and utilisable.

4.2 DISCUSSION From the analysis results, the model becomes CSit = -1.058 + 0.116 CSi(t-1) + 0.173 FSit - 0.055 LIQit - 0.757 TANGit - 0.215 FPit - 1.011 FOit + εit.

(2).

4.2.1 FIRM-SPECIFIC FACTORS Regression results confirm that capital structure is influenced by firms’ factors. Foreign ownership (FO) is negative (-1.011) and significant at the 1% level. Firms having high foreign ownership have a low debt ratio as they can simply attract capital from other sources. Besides, foreign investors have the ability to control the problem of excessive investment of firms, thus facilitating to limit the firms’ debt ratio. This result agrees with what has been found by Le & Tannous (2016), and Thai (2018). Tangibility (TANG) exerts a significantly negative impact (-0.757) on the capital structure at the 1% level. This corroborates the results of Acaravci (2015), Windayu (2016), Li and Islam (2019). This implies that industrial firms with high fixed assets tend to borrow less. This result absolutely reflects the reality in Vietnam where firm debt is mainly short-term, so it will cause high risks if this source is used to finance the firms’ fixed assets. Consequently, these firms usually invest in fixed assets by their equity. This finding supports the agency cost theory. Firm profitability (FP) is negatively (-0.215) and significantly related to the capital structure at the level of 1%. This is consistent with findings of Baharuddin et al. (2011), Tongkong (2012), Ajanthan (2013), Chang et al. (2014), Wahab and Ramli (2014), Acaravci (2015), Le and Tannous (2016), Windayu (2016), Vuran et al. (2017), Cevheroglu-Acar (2018), Li and Islam (2019), and Thai (2018). This can be explained that the management frequently has a better understanding of the firm business situations as well as profitability than external investors. For potential and profitable projects, the best financing is to use available capital from the remaining profit because the capital cost of external capital accumulation will be higher. In case the internal source is insufficient, the accumulation from external sources should be chosen to avoid the high capital cost.

Thu-Trang Thi Doan

This finding is consistent with the pecking order theory. Firm size (FS) is positively (0.173) and significantly associated with the capital structure at the level of 1%. This result supports the trade-off theory which implies that firms with big size and diversified portfolio can minimise risks, lower borrowing costs, better the ability to access to creditors as compared to small ones. This encourages these big firms to get more loans. Existing studies also reveal the similar result (Baharuddin et al., 2011; Moosa & Li, 2012; Shah & Jam-eKausar, 2012; Tongkong, 2012; Agrawal & Singh, 2014; Chang et al., 2014; Wahab & Ramli, 2014; Le & Tannous, 2016; Vuran et al., 2017; Li & Islam, 2019; Thai, 2018). Capital structure in the previous year (CSt-1) is positively (0.116) and significantly related to the current capital structure at the level of 10%. This confirms the importance of capital structure in the previous time in how capital is the structure at present. This totally suits the reality of Vietnam. This result is in line with those Khémiri & Noubbigh, 2018; Rao et al., 2019 have confirmed. Liquidity (LIQ) exerts a negative impact (-0.055) on the leverage with the significance at the level of 1%. This finding is similar to those of Moosa and Li (2012), Wahab and Ramli (2014), Le and Tannous (2016), and Cevheroglu-Acar (2018). It can be deduced that firms with high liquidity tend to have a higher ability to pay off their current liabilities and lower debt ratio. This is because more liquid firms possess more current assets, finance and other equivalent amounts, thus financing themselves from internal sources without owning to debt.

5. CONCLUSION The paper examines the impact of factors on the capital structure of 102 listed industrial firms in Vietnam during 2008-2018. The analysis is performed using Pooled OLS, FEM, REM, and GMM to collect consistent and efficient results. According to results of the investigation, foreign ownership (FO), tangibility (TANG), firm profitability (FP), firm size (FS), capital structure in the previous year (CSt-1) and liquidity (LIQ) are significantly associated with the capital structure. The results provide industry firms in Vietnam with an insight into how the factors affect their capital structure. This paper contributes to the theoretical perspective on the capital structure in the scenario of an emerging economy. Moreover, this study enriches the collection of studies on the capital structure because all variables employed are proved to exert a significant influence on capital structure. However, the study only determines firm-specific factors, not business characteristics, firm international diversification, or characteristics of the financial market. These may be interesting proposals for future research.

6. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIAL Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding author.

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Thu-Trang Thi Doan

Shah, S. Z. A., & Jam-e-Kausar (2012). Determinants of capital structure of leasing companies in Pakistan. Applied Financial Economics, 22(22), 1841–1853. Thai, A. (2018). The Effect of Foreign Ownership on Capital Structure in Vietnam. Review of Integrative Business and Economics Research, 8(1), 20–32. Tongkong, S. (2012). Key factors influencing capital structure decision and its speed of adjustment of Thai listed real estate companies. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 40, 716–720. Vuran, B., Taş, N., & Adiloğlu, B. (2017). Determining the Factors Affecting Capital Structure Decisions of Real Sector Companies Operating in ISE. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 9(8), 25–32. Wahab, S. N. A., & Ramli, N. A. (2014). The determinants of capital structure: an empirical investigation of Malaysian listed government linked companies. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 4(4), 930–945. Windayu, C. R. (2016). Factors Affecting the Capital Structure in Textile and Garment Listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange. IOSR Journal of Business and Management, 18(10), 83–88. Thu-Trang Thi Doan is a Lecturer at Faculty of Finance and Banking, Industrial University of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. She holds a Master of Finance and Banking from University of Finance – Marketing (UFM), Vietnam. Her researches are in the fields of Finance and Banking, Real Estate Market and Applied Econometrics.

*Corresponding author (Thu-Trang Thi Doan). Email: doanthithutrang@iuh.edu.vn ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9F http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9F.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.168

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A9G

SPACE SYNTAX ANALYSIS ON INDOOR ARENA’S LAYOUT PLAN OF SPICE ARENA, PENANG 1*

Tan Yong Ann , Ahmad Sanusi Hassan , 1,2* 2 , and Boonsap Witchayangkoon Asif Ali 1

School of Housing, Building & Planning, Universiti Sains Malaysia, MALAYSIA. Architecture Section (University Polytechnic), Aligarh Muslim University, INDIA. 3 Department of Civil Engineering, Thammasat School of Engineering, Thammasat University, THAILAND. 2

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Article history: Received 23 2020 Received in revised form 23 January 2020 Accepted 02 March 2020 Available online 28 March 2020

Space syntax is a human-focused approach tool that supports humans to identify the relationship between human activities and the spaces within a habited area. This paper mainly focusses on the space syntax that defined from the existing case study Spice Arena, Penang. Method of utilising information found from the resources like the internet and interview the respective parties involved in the building renovation. Likert scale method is used to present the finalist of the research which justifies the wayfinding and permeability of Spice Arena. The finding of this paper showing the wayfinding in the Spice Arena is instead a dilemma. Based on the outcome, the round spatial arrangement of Spice Arena is somewhat supportive for the visitors to seek for wayfinding. However, some areas are narrow and dense which are not suitable to cater to the large volume of visitors. Hence, the finding of this paper hopes to aid the designer in their future arena design.

Keywords: Human activities and the spaces; Space syntax graph; Wayfinding and permeability; Spatial configuration.

1. INTRODUCTION The objective of this research paper is to provide a proper practice toward the space syntax by analysing and providing an in-depth study based on the design intentions learned from the selected case study arena. The process of this research can give a better understanding of wayfinding and pick up the arena design weaknesses and strengths. Peculiarities of the arena design often different compare to other arena designs around the globe. Such a unique design feature of spatial arrangement often come in two types of perceptions. The perception of inexperienced visitors often the most important in this study due to them are the primary use for the arena to be served. The understanding of inexperienced wayfinding will show the different navigation strategies compare to the user with prior experience with the building (Hölscher et al., 2006). Hence, *Corresponding author (Tan Yong Ann). Tel: +60-14-3302200 Email: lexztan@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9G http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9G.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.169

different methods of direction will be obtained in this method. Space syntax the other name as an individual study about accessibility within graphs (Penn, 2003). It is an accessibility study within the aiding of graphical presentation way to present the finding. The graphical presentation mainly will be utilising the aid of software to produce. The result for this paper believes mostly in identifying the possibilities of the accessibility based on the inexperienced visitors toward the selected arena layout as well as the space syntax.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW Space syntax is a tool for identifying the relationships between human activities and the spaces within habited space (Bafna, 2003). Investigation for the spatial transition of human movement from one area to another is the primary purpose of space syntax. Transition spaces and connectivity often come across during the analysing process, space syntax analysis often representing by the level of permeability which lies within building design. However, the building design is based on the purpose and functions that the designer intended to portrait. Space syntax can be considered as a study of accessibility within graphs for deriving the results of wayfinding (Yusoff, 2019). Kevin A. Lynch (1960) used the term for his book “The Image of the City”, where he defined wayfinding as “consistent use of organisation of definite sensory cues from the external environment". In another word, space syntax allows people to investigate the relationship between human activities and spaces from the structure of the inhabited area in all different forms (Penn, 2003). The habituated societies often use space as the keyword and necessary information to organise themselves. The arena is a space that designed intentionally to occupy many functional spaces within and allow to hold huge capacities of spectators in a time per event. It is being labelled as “Place of Assembly” in Fifth Schedule of Uniform Building By-Laws where people with the same motive are using a public or private for social, education, recreation, business, and other activities (UBBL, 2013). The internal planning, wayfinding and level of permeability must be able to cater to the high volume of human movement to avoid unnecessary trouble in all aspects. Other words, the control of securities and the ingress-egress often are the most significant challenge when designing arena. This research is being carried out with the intention of analysing the positive and negative aspect of selected case study and providing information from the finding to enhance future arena design. Architecturally, the arena always designed to contribute and revitalisation of neighbourhoods. In other words, it is a space that design for events is gathering. However due to the security issues, information regarding the plans of the arena hardly able to be released to the public from the respective parties who were in charged (Ahlfeldt & Maennig, 2009). Furthermore, architecturally designed to occupy more than 10,000 people always being categorised for high complexity. Given a limited timeframe to carry out the analysis for such typology is challenging to complete in time. The nature of space syntax in this paper is centric toward wayfinding and identification of the level of permeability from the selected case study (Hillier, 1999). Building floor plans are the primary information to be obtained before the research being carried out. Floor plans of the case study chosen able to give us a clear view of the information that we required. Indications are to be labelled and organized correctly on the floor plans which later lead to the second stage where the data is translated into graphs or diagrams. Likert scale method comes in when the findings need to be rated formally.

Tan Yong Ann, Ahmad Sanusi Hassan, Asif Ali, and Boonsap Witchayangkoon

2.1 SPICE ARENA The Spice Arena (Figures 1-3) is known as the new pulse of Penang where the arena capable of hosting for many significant events. Events such as concerts, exhibitions, indoor sports competitions and Trade Centre often being held here. The newly renovated Spice Arena from original Pisa Arena which is located at the central heart of Bayan Lepas Southern Province of Penang Island Malaysia. It is designed with the capacities of a minimum of 10,000 terrace seats, and flexibilities of internal space layout often become the main attraction from many events.

Figure 1: the Spice Arena from opposite shop-lots view.

Figure 2: the side entrance of the Spice Arena

Figure 3: the main sheltered entrance of Spice Arena from the Spice Convention Hall

Spice Arena was selected due to the availability of information and multiple awards winning projects such as No. 1 The Edge Malaysia Awards, FLABCI World Prix dâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; Excellence Awards, FLABCI Malaysia Property Awards (Setia Spice, 2018). Its location near to Universiti Sains Malaysia, this provides an easy to understand the spaces and circulation (Figures 4-9) in the arena.

*Corresponding author (Tan Yong Ann). Tel: +60-14-3302200 Email: lexztan@gmail.com ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9G http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9G.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.169

Figure 4: Key Plan of Spice Arena

Figure 5: Location Plan of Spice Arena.

Figure 6: the Site Plan of Spice Arena

3. METHODOLOGY The selection of a proper case study for space syntax is the crucial part to start for this research to begin. The case study selection must have close typology with the design thesis topic. In this case, Spice Arena had been selected to be the case studies due to the location and information availability and nearer to be visited for a site visit. Despite the selection of a case study to begin, proper information should be collected along the way. Such information like drawing will need to retrace to produce our version. As proceeding toward the analysis progress, labelling system required to be appropriately defined to avoid confusion happen on further stages. For example, Spice Arena having three storeys in total which the number or symbol system will require to indicate according to level to avoid the repetition to other level spaces. As the research proceeds further in detail, different kinds of presentation graph methods will need to be introduced. This is due to the circulation design of the Spice Arena are in the form of a loop. All the spaces within able to be connected through a continuous walking corridor. Besides that, multiple entrances are situated around the arena which allows the ingress and egress to be happening all around. Conventional vertical and horizontal space syntax graphs are difficult to present the flow of connectivity and the level of permeability. Ended up might cause a missinterpretation of the design. However, the circular space syntax graph is being introduced in this case due to the circular space syntax graph able to fulfill the placement and circulation of the Spice

Tan Yong Ann, Ahmad Sanusi Hassan, Asif Ali, and Boonsap Witchayangkoon

Arena designs. The circular space syntax graph having the level of permeability will be differentiated by the colour zone growing from the outermost line toward the centre point. Meantime, building levelling will be indicated base on the position of the mainline. Spaces relationship able to be presented in the more natural form in this case due to all the labelling and symbols able to place accordingly.

4. ANALYSIS This analysis will start from the basement plan (Figure 7-12). As the analysis moves up, the floor number increases along as well. The process of analysis will be presented as a view of a visitor who visits the Spice Arena for the event.

Figure 7: Basement Plan indication. There are two main entrances (blue colour indication) in the basement that mainly serve the vehicular ingress and egress. The current basement plan contains two main lift lobbies (brown colour indication), and multiple lift cores come with fire staircases (green colour indication). The vertical access is situated around the building. When visitors enter the basement carpark, they can park all the parking whichever available. The whole basement circulation is connected. Visitors can walk from one end to another. Besides the carpark and motor parking, there are a few spaces and services contained in the basement such as multiple mechanical rooms, fire tanks, pump rooms, airconditional compressor units, loading bay, and so on. Most visitors will approach directed toward the lift lobbies after they parked. Even though they address the approach to lift lobby, most of them will prefer to park their vehicle near to both lift lobbies. The way of movement for the car will be filled starting from both the lift lobbies then slowly until the middle of the basement carpark.

Figure 8: the Basement Plan Space Syntax Diagram

Figure 9: Basement Lobbies

Figure 11: Basement open carparks

Figure 10: the Basement Lobbies

Figure 12: Basement open carparks

Tan Yong Ann, Ahmad Sanusi Hassan, Asif Ali, and Boonsap Witchayangkoon

Figure 13: Ground Floor Plan indication There are several entrances on the ground floor (Figures 13-20). Such entries are being situated at all rounds of the building. All the entries come along with the fire staircases beside entries with label 1E1, 1E2, 1E5 and 1E6 are come with lift core attached. Generally, the ground of Spice Arena is design with equipped main function rooms, rental offices, management office, back of the house, VIP room, artist rooms, function rooms, temporary police station and so on. The overall ceiling height of the spaces is about 2.4m which causing the ground floor to feel like a very narrow space although the 3m width of the corridor is being introduced here. It is good that all passages are connected in a loop yet segmented by the fire rated door according to zoning. However, without proper indication in all the spaces at the corridor can be very confusing in the wayfinding experience. Furthermore, linking all passages in a loop will lead the visitor toward the back of the house quickly. Usually, the back of the house is where the most hidden part that people wanted to hide it away for security and safety purposes. In this case, might not be a good practice that leads the visitor toward it.

Figure 14: Shown the Ground Floor Plan Space Syntax Diagram.

Figure 15: VIP Lounge at Ground Floor area

Figure 17: Rental office corridor

Figure 16: Circulation A at Ground floor area

Figure 18: Pre-function area of multipurpose Hall

Tan Yong Ann, Ahmad Sanusi Hassan, Asif Ali, and Boonsap Witchayangkoon

Figure 19: Transition area between the arena and back of house

Figure 20: Loading bay at back of house

Figure 21: the First Floor Plan Space Syntax Diagram.

Figure 22: Pre-function area of first floor

Figure 23: Circulation space at the first floor

*Corresponding author (Tan Yong Ann). Tel: +60-14-3302200 Email: lexztan@gmail.com Â©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9G http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9G.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.169

Figure 24: The First Floor Plan indicating the Space Syntax Diagram. The First-floor plan layout (Figures 21-24) has wider and loosen space planning. The common area circulation still designed to be connected as a loop but with the benefit of more comprehensive and relaxing space, it has become suitable to be the proper exhibition area or pre-function area for the event. A visitor that comes from the Spice Convention Centre, will have to walk through the main entrance (2E2) which shown in Figure 22. The interior design in this area is somehow different compared to other circulation around due to this is the primary ingress and egress sheltered connection from Spice Convention Centre. However, the wayfinding on this floor are more transparent, and easier compared to the ground floor.

5. DISCUSSION There are categories of visitors and users (Purpose of Visit) who visiting Spice Arena. Method for categorising them will able to relate to the function of Spice Arena itself closely. First, Spice Arena is mainly designed to cater to the "Performance". Performance can be closely linked to such events like concerts, public talks, competitions which involve entrance fees. Visitors who come for such an event often have a specific direction while walking in the arena. They will direct themselves toward the concourse area based on the entrance indication after they park their vehicle. However, the level of wayfinding is found to be very different for the event such as organising an exhibition for a particular event. Such exhibition often encourages the visitor to move around the internal layout of the arena. The level of permeability is often hardly able to apply in this case due

Tan Yong Ann, Ahmad Sanusi Hassan, Asif Ali, and Boonsap Witchayangkoon

to different motives having. Commonly exhibition will maximise the functional spaces as much as possible. It is tough to control the visitor movement while there are multiple entrances around the arena. High visitor volume usually will affect human change also. Most visitors often like to find the shortest travel distance to travels within the building. However, the third phenomenon often happens to the visitor who travels to Spice Arena to visit the offices or the office workers. We can find multiple organisation offices within Spice Arena such as Branch of Penang Municipal Council, SP Setia Management, SP Setia Voluntary Police Station, Media Studio and so on. Such offices are located around the ground floor. The visitor often moves from one end to another due to the compartmentalising of all circulation in the ground floor. Compartmentalised ground floor plan circulation often makes the visitors confuse for the direction.

5.1 WAYFINDING IN THE BASEMENT Basement design rather simple. They have an open plan layout which most of the visitor are free to park at the parking lot freely. Wayfinding in the basement shown rather direct in the way that visitors can approach the lifts directly after they parked. However, to determine their course of travel for the first time will be difficult. This is due to all the lifts at the basement that will lead them to a different part of the arena.

5.2 WAYFINDING IN THE GROUND FLOOR Ground floor layout presented in a low ceiling and narrow space designs. The visitor must go through many tiers of the compartment to reach their destination. Due to the location is situated below the first-floor arena grandstand thus the ceiling height is minimal by the floor height. The overall experience of the ground floor given for the visitor is not very appropriate due to the reasons mentioned, and the circulation will lead to the back of the house quickly.

5.3 WAYFINDING IN THE FIRST FLOOR The visitor who not park their car at the arena basement most of them will walk through the 2E2 entrance. This is due to there are alternative parking located at Spice Convention Centre. The first floor has rather direct and straightforward of wayfinding for exhibition and arena performance. However, a visitor who came for the office and admin work has nothing to do to the first floor. The overall user experience for the first floor is slightly better than the first floor due to having more extensive pre-function space and design with a higher ceiling. It has felt welcoming in the way of the design approach. Having the study of space syntax analysis on the indoor arena of the Spice Arena, Penang, the summarized result is given in Table 1. Table 1: Summarized permeability result of Spice Arena, Penang. Element Basement Ground floor First floor

Very easy

Easy 

Neutral

Hard

Very hard

 

6. CONCLUSION Spice Arena was renovated from the previous arena name Pisa which design by oversea architect 30 years ago. Most of the layout design might not be suitable based on the current urban *Corresponding author (Tan Yong Ann). Tel: +60-14-3302200 Email: lexztan@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9G http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9G.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.169

context. This paper has shown the limitations and the advantages of Spice Arena which can adopt as a reference to future arena design. Overall wayfinding in Spice Arena can be considered acceptable base on the current renovated building design and building layout of 30 years ago. The only part that shown the unsatisfied wayfinding is the ground floor layout. This is mainly due to the ceiling height constraints from the grandstand in arena and compartmentalisation of the entire corridor by the facilities in it. Visitors might easily lose their direction in there. However, to overcome such situation, proper signages are required. Furthermore, low ceiling and compact spaces causing the unpleasant air quality at ground floor which will bring the unfortunate experience to the visitors. The common area in the arena should be designed as large as possible to cater to the large volume of crowds.

7. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Special appreciation is given to the BYG Architect for SPICE development for providing the information required for this research. This research paper is financially supported by the Bridging Grant (Number 304.PPBGN.6316521).

8. DATA AND MATERIAL AVAILABILITY This study data can be provided upon contacting the corresponding author.

9. REFERENCES Ahlfeldt, G., & Maennig, W. (2009). Arenas, arena architecture and the impact on location desirability: the case of Olympic Arenas' in Prenzlauer Berg, Berlin. Urban Studies, 46(7), 1343-1362. Bafna, S. (2003). Space syntax: A brief introduction to its logic and analytical techniques. Environment and Behavior, 35(1), 17-29. Hillier, B. (1999), Space is the Machine: A Configurational Theory of Architecture, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press Hรถlscher, C., Brรถsamle, M., & Vrachliotis, G. (2012). Challenges in multilevel wayfinding: A case study with the space syntax technique. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 39(1), 63-82. Kamarudin, H., Hashim, A. E., Mahmood, M., Ariff, N. R. M., & Ismail, W. Z. W. (2012). The implementation of the Malaysian Standard Code of Practice on access for disabled persons by local authority. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 50, 442-451. Lynch, K. (1960). The image of the city, vol.11. MIT press. Penn, A. (2003). Space syntax and spatial cognition: or why the axial line?. Environment and & A. Churchman (Eds.), Handbook of environmental psychology. John Wiley. 271-291 Setia Spice (2018). The Largest Multipurpose Indoor Venue In Malaysia Northern Region. http://www.setiaspice.com/arena.aspx UBBL (2013). Laws of Malaysia (Act 133): Uniform Building By-Law 1984 (UBBL). Sixteenth Edition ed. Kuala Lumpur: MDC Publishers Sdn Bhd.

Tan Yong Ann, Ahmad Sanusi Hassan, Asif Ali, and Boonsap Witchayangkoon

Yusoff, N., Hassan, A.S., Ali, A. & Witchayangkoon, B. (2019). Public Space and Private Space Configuration in Integrated Multifunctional Reservoir: Case of Marina Barrage, Singapore. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. 10(10), 10A09J: 1-16. Tan Yong Ann is a postgraduate student from the Master of Architecture Programme at the School of Housing, Building and Planning, Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM), Penang, Malaysia.

Professor Dr.Ahmad Sanusi Hassan is a Professor in Architecture Programme at the School of Housing, Building and Planning, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Penang, Malaysia. He obtained a Bachelor and Master of Architecture degrees from University of Houston, Texas, USA, and Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) degree focusing on Sustainable Architecture and Urban Design Development for Southeast Asia from University of Nottingham, United Kingdom.

Asif Ali is an Assistant Professor of Architecture in the University Polytechnic of Aligarh Muslim University, India. He received his B.Arch. from Aligarh Muslim University with Honors in 1998. He did his M. Arch.from Aayojan School of Architecture, Jaipur, India. Asif Ali's current interests include Sustainable Development and Islamic Architecture in India. Presently he is pursuing his PhD at School of Housing, Building and Planning, University of Science, Malaysia.

B. Witchayangkoon is an Associate Professor of Department of Civil Engineering at Thammasat University. He received his B.Eng. from King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi with Honors. He continued his PhD study at University of Maine, USA, where he obtained his PhD in Spatial Information Science & Engineering. Dr. Witchayangkoon current interests involve Applications of Emerging Technologies to Engineering.

*Corresponding author (Tan Yong Ann). Tel: +60-14-3302200 Email: lexztan@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9G http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9G.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.169

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PAPER ID: 11A9H

BANK COMPETITION AND STABILITY RELATIONSHIP: EVIDENCE FROM SELECTED SOUTH ASIAN ECONOMIES Muhammad Amir Alvi 1

, Amir Rafique

Department of Management Sciences COMSATS University Islamabad, PAKISTAN.

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Article history: Received 16 December 2019 Received in revised form 14 February 2020 Accepted 21 February 2020 Available online 28 March 2020

This study explores the impact of bank competition on the stability of 88 banking institutions in four South Asian economies (Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka) for 2012-2018. Both structure and nonstructure measures of competition are used in empirical measurements along with z-score that is mostly used measure of stability. The results using two-step system generalized method of moment (GMM) suggests Keywords: that structure measures of bank competition (Concentration ratio and Bank concentration; Hirschman-Herfindahl index) have a significant positive impact on the Banking competitionstability of banks while non-structure measures of bank competition fragility; Two-step system GMM; Z-score; (Panzar and Rosse H statistics, Conventional, Adjusted Lerner index and Commercial banks; Boone indicator) have a significant negative impact on the stability of South Asian banking; banks. The results are strongly in the favour of competition-fragility Hirschman-Herfindahl hypothesis which proposes that an increase in competition reduces the index; Wu-Hausman test; stability of banking institutions in the financial market. Stability of banking; Levin-Lin-Chu test.

1. INTRODUCTION The financial failure of 2008-2009 led to financial risk and fragility for all banks that create an interest to know the real problems associated with financial stability. The banking sector has to manage with numerous potential tasks and their stability as well. The global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008-2009 highlights real concerns not only for individual bank stability but also for the stability of the whole financial sector. The soundness of the financial system is not guaranteed even in a secure environment at the macroeconomic level. The reason is the complex nature of the relationship holds between individual bank stability and stability of banks at the macroeconomic level. So, the banking sector stability analysis cannot be ignored. The financial sector is the strength of the economy of any country. The whole economy suffers from the insolvency of the financial sector due to its impact on governments, corporations and also all stakeholders which include shareholders, employees, managers, lenders and creditors. So, policymakers and researchers need to *Corresponding author (M.Amir Alvi). Tel: +92-300-7841236. Email: amiralvi786@live.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9H http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9H.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.170

determine the factors that influence stability. Theoretical, as well as empirical literature on the stability of the financial sector, indicates that competition in banking institutions is the main factor of financial stability. So, the linkages between bank competition and stability in a financial environment especially in banking sector a prime question for policymakers especially in South Asian economies as government intervene through financial sector which has entailed mostly of the organization of restructuring strategies through acquisitions or mergers and bailouts since Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008-2009 to prevent the financial institution from the forthcoming financial crisis. Furthermore, the banking sector also faces liberalisation through tremendous consolidation, foreign bank penetration and regional integration. Two main hypotheses define the linkage between bank competition and stability in literature. The first one is the competition-stability hypothesis which proposes that competition in banking institutions accelerates the stability of banks (Mishkin, 1999; Minh et al., 2020). The second one is the competition-fragility hypothesis that proposes that competition reduces the stability of banks (Keeley, 1990; Bulatova et al., 2019). This study adds existing banking literature in various ways. Firstly, it gives addition to growing literature on bank competition-stability/fragility linkages through empirical support from four economies of the South Asian region. Secondly, it uses both structure and non-structure indicators of bank competition to enhance the robustness of the final results. Thirdly, this study explores the after a consequence of the global financial crisis (GFC) on the linkage between competition in the banking sector and stability while capturing the policy implications regarding liberalisation, activity restriction, deregulation, capitalization and consolidation using recent data from 2012 to 2018. Finally, the issue of endogeneity is controlled by using a two-step system (GMM) estimation technique by incorporating lag of variables as instruments.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW The review is given to bank competition and stability relationship

2.1 THE COMPETITION-STABILITY

Supporters of the competition-stability hypothesis state that bank competition enhances stability. Firstly, charging higher loan rates by banks having market power would lead to a moral hazard problem on the borrower’s side. The loans provided to these borrowers increased their risk of the portfolio (Stiglitz & Weiss, 1981). Secondly, too-big-to-fail (TBTF) or too-important-to-fail (TITF) banks are more likely present in concentrated markets. These TBTF-banks are the main cause of contagion risk and hence threaten bank stability (Nier et al., 2007). Managers of larger (TBTF) banks take the excessive risk due to the idea that they will be rescued when in trouble (Mishkin, 1999). Thirdly, the theory of “Too-many-to-fail” explained that banks having market power can diversify risk regardless of the related reduction in individual value of risk in banking. In a similar case, bank’s incentives to diversify their assets lower when the charter value of banks decreases as competition increased and however, it may enhance bank risk individually but helpful for bank stability as well (Acharya & Yorulmazer, 2007). Goetz (2018) conducted a study on this type of linkage in the US. In the bank-level analysis, results using a fixed-effect model described that high competition positively contributes to bank stability. Noman et al. (2017) used Panzar and Rosse H statistics (PRHS), the Lerner index used as

M.Amir Alvi, A.Rafique

a proxy of competition. Results using the system generalized method of movement showed that there exists a direct linkage between competition in the banking sector and stability in ASEAN-5. Leroy (2016) worked on the systemic measures of bank stability rather than conventional measures of bank stability. The results using systemic measures of bank stability are in favour of the competition-stability hypothesis. Liu et al. (2013) suggested that bank competition and stability are directly related to selected South East Asian economies. Soedarmono et al., (2013) found favourable results in the competition-stability hypothesis in the case of 12 Asian economies consisting the banking sector in the post-Asian financial crisis.

2.2 THE COMPETITION-FRAGILITY Proponents of the competition-fragility hypothesis state that bank competition reduces stability. Firstly, the Merton model on the pricing of deposit insurance has been extended under the traditional view on competition in the banking sector. Merton (1977) described that the value of put option of underlying assets in banking institutions is the same as the value of deposit insurance. Meanwhile, the changes in the price of underlying assets depend upon the price of an option. So, the bank has reason to enhance the variations in the price of assets with secured deposits. This strategy of increasing the value of assets of the banking sector in the existence of deposit insurance also increases default risk. Keeley (1990) extended the earlier argument by describing that bank charter has no value because it increases bankruptcy costs and resultantly, the charter of the bank is lost in case of default. Similarly, sometimes, the charter value of the bank also called franchise value. Moreover, an increase in competition in the deposit market alleviated the bankâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s future rents (profits) and thus, decreasing the values of the charter of the bank so that large banks found it ideal to select risk maximizing policy. Hence, bank competition is a detriment to stability (Allen & Gale, 2000). Additionally, Hellmann et al. (2000) simplify the results in which capital requirements included in the model. They also explored that limiting competition in the deposit market using deposit rate ceilings are an active way to enhance bank stability due to the reason of the charter value-maximizing approach. Secondly, a model developed by Cordella and Yeyati (2002) in which proper screening of borrowers (loan applicants) reduced the degree of bank risk. They described that accelerating bank competition would result in the reduction of screening benefits. Thus, a reduction in the screening benefits of loan applicants made banks riskier (Chan et al., 1986). Thirdly, Marquez (2002) examined that the screening of borrowers is not easy in case of when a large number of banks present in the market due to the reason that each bank screen loan applicants in a smaller portion among the larger number of loan applicants. As a result, finance is given to low-quality loan applicants with negative consequences for bank stability in the long run. Lastly, some argued that it is difficult to monitor a structure with a large number of small banking institutions in the whole banking system (Wagner, 2010). Leroy and Luccotte (2017) explored the linkage between competition and stability of banking institutions. Z-score, Merton distance to default, systemic risk is used measures for bank stability. Results using random effect, fixed effect and two-stage least square are in the favour of competition-fragility hypothesis which means that competition in the banking sector and stability are negatively related. Kabir and Worthington (2017) investigated a similar hypothesis in sixteen developing countries for 2000-2012. Results demonstrate that accelerating competition would result *Corresponding author (M.Amir Alvi). Tel: +92-300-7841236. Email: amiralvi786@live.com ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9H http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9H.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.170

in a reduction of the stability of banking institutions in the financial market. Albaity et al., (2019) deeply worked on the linkages between competition and stability of banking institutions in MEANA-18 countries using the moderating role of Islamic banks. Results are similar to competition-fragility hypothesis and also Islamic bank moderates this relationship.

3. METHODOLOGY Bank balance sheet data for empirical analysis used for four countries (Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Srilanka) across the South Asian region for 2012-2018 has been taken from bank focus. The bank-level sample included commercial banks of four countries for which bank focus provide data for seven years. Following (Duprey & Le, 2015), this paper dropped duplicate values using the Duprey-Le algorithm to iteratively for sample banks to kept time series data for every single bank as long as needed and also used combined data wherever needed (Bikker et al., 2012). Data on variables (e.g. GDP growth rate, real interest rate and inflation) has been taken from the World Bank. For discovering the linkage between bank competition, and stability, the detailed description of variables is given as;

3.1 BANK COMPETITION Structure and non-structure measures of competition have its benefit and drawbacks. The scholars are not reached at a consensus that which measure is a more suitable measure of competition. This is the reason; this paper used the maximum measure of competition to reach the robustness of findings. 3.1.1 COMPETITION: STRUCTURE MEASURES Structure measures of bank competition under traditional Industrial Organization (IO) literature are concentration ratios (CRn) and Hirschman-Herfindahl Index (HHI). This approach demonstrates that competition is derived from the market structure. Lower values of these measures indicate low market power which shows high competition. This paper followed by khan et al. (2017) to calculate the concentration ratio and Hirschman-Herfindahl Index. 3.1.2 COMPETITION: NON-STRUCTURE MEASURES 3.1.2.1 PANZAR-ROSSE MODEL It is a more commonly used non-structure indicator of competition in the financial industry (Panzar & Rosse, 1982). For the calculation of PRHS, this model is given as (Bikker et al., 2012). đ?&#x2018;&#x2122;đ?&#x2018;&#x2122;đ?&#x2018;&#x2122;đ?&#x2018;&#x2122;ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą ďż˝ = đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; + đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝1 đ?&#x2018;&#x2122;đ?&#x2018;&#x2122;đ?&#x2018;&#x2122;đ?&#x2018;&#x2122;ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x160;đ?&#x2018;&#x160;1,đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą ďż˝ + đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝2 đ?&#x2018;&#x2122;đ?&#x2018;&#x2122;đ?&#x2018;&#x2122;đ?&#x2018;&#x2122;ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x160;đ?&#x2018;&#x160;2,đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą ďż˝ + đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝3 đ?&#x2018;&#x2122;đ?&#x2018;&#x2122;đ?&#x2018;&#x2122;đ?&#x2018;&#x2122;ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x160;đ?&#x2018;&#x160;3,đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą ďż˝ + đ?&#x203A;žđ?&#x203A;žđ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014; â&#x2C6;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;=1 đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;,đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą + đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą

(1),

where đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą represents the income of banking institution đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; in time đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą; input prices are indicated

by đ?&#x2018;&#x160;đ?&#x2018;&#x160;1 (financial cost), đ?&#x2018;&#x160;đ?&#x2018;&#x160;2 (operating cost ), and đ?&#x2018;&#x160;đ?&#x2018;&#x160;3 (personal cost). đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;,đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą is a matrix of bank-

level control variables and đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą is the error term. PRHS is calculated by adding the coefficients on ( đ?&#x2018;&#x160;đ?&#x2018;&#x160;1 ), (đ?&#x2018;&#x160;đ?&#x2018;&#x160;2 ) and ( đ?&#x2018;&#x160;đ?&#x2018;&#x160;3 ) i.e. (đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝1 + đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝2 + đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝3 ). The term Îł is the regression coefficient for đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;,đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą . The

term Îľ is the regression error term.

The dynamic PRHS is given as

M.Amir Alvi, A.Rafique

â&#x2C6;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2122;đ?&#x2018;&#x2122;đ?&#x2018;&#x2122;đ?&#x2018;&#x2122;ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą ďż˝ = đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝0đ??şđ??ş â&#x2C6;&#x2020;lnďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąâ&#x2C6;&#x2019;1 ďż˝ + đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝1đ??şđ??ş lnďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x160;đ?&#x2018;&#x160;1,đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą ďż˝ + đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝2đ??şđ??ş lnďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x160;đ?&#x2018;&#x160;2,đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą ďż˝ +đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝3đ??şđ??ş lnďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x160;đ?&#x2018;&#x160;3,đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą ďż˝ + đ?&#x203A;žđ?&#x203A;žđ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014; â&#x2C6;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;=1 đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;,đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą

(2).

3.1.2.2 LERNER INDEX (CONVENTIONAL) A well-used indicator of competition in finance and economics literature is the Lerner index (Lerner, 1934) =

đ??żđ??żđ??żđ??żđ??żđ??żđ??żđ??żđ??żđ??żđ??żđ??żđ?&#x2019;&#x160;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;,đ?&#x2019;&#x2022;đ?&#x2019;&#x2022;

ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;,đ?&#x2019;&#x2022;đ?&#x2019;&#x2022; â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x2018;&#x20AC;đ?&#x2018;&#x20AC;đ?&#x2018;&#x20AC;đ?&#x2018;&#x20AC;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;,đ?&#x2019;&#x2022;đ?&#x2019;&#x2022; ďż˝

(3),

đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;,đ?&#x2019;&#x2022;đ?&#x2019;&#x2022;

where the price of output price (bankâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s price) is denoted by đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą and marginal cost is denoted by đ?&#x2018;&#x20AC;đ?&#x2018;&#x20AC;đ?&#x2018;&#x20AC;đ?&#x2018;&#x20AC;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;,đ?&#x2019;&#x2022;đ?&#x2019;&#x2022;. Marginal cost is the cost incurred to make an extra item of output individually. For the calculation of marginal cost, the trans-log cost function is given as đ?&#x2018;&#x2122;đ?&#x2018;&#x2122;đ?&#x2018;&#x2122;đ?&#x2018;&#x2122;đ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą = đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x;&#x17D;đ?&#x;&#x17D; + đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝1 ln đ?&#x2018;&#x201E;đ?&#x2018;&#x201E;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą +

đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝2 2

2 lnđ?&#x2018;&#x201E;đ?&#x2018;&#x201E;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą + â&#x2C6;&#x2018;3đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;=1 đ?&#x203A;žđ?&#x203A;žđ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą ln đ?&#x2018;&#x160;đ?&#x2018;&#x160;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;,đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą + â&#x2C6;&#x2018;3đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;=1 â&#x2C6;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC; lnđ?&#x2018;&#x201E;đ?&#x2018;&#x201E;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą ln đ?&#x2018;&#x160;đ?&#x2018;&#x160;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;,đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą + đ?&#x203A;żđ?&#x203A;ż

2 â&#x2C6;&#x2018;3đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;=1 â&#x2C6;&#x2018;3đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;=1 đ?&#x203A;żđ?&#x203A;żđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014; ln đ?&#x2018;&#x160;đ?&#x2018;&#x160;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;,đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą ln đ?&#x2018;&#x160;đ?&#x2018;&#x160;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;,đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą + â&#x2C6;&#x2018;3đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;=1 ďż˝ đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; ďż˝ ln đ?&#x2018;&#x160;đ?&#x2018;&#x160;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą,đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą + 2

â&#x2C6;&#x2018;2đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;=1 đ?&#x153;&#x201A;đ?&#x153;&#x201A;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC; đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC; â&#x2C6;&#x2018;3đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;=1 đ?&#x153;&#x201D;đ?&#x153;&#x201D;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; ln đ?&#x2018;&#x160;đ?&#x2018;&#x160;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;,đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą + đ?&#x2018;Łđ?&#x2018;Ł ln đ?&#x2018;&#x201E;đ?&#x2018;&#x201E;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą,đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014; đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą + đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;

(4),

where total cost and output for banking institution đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; in time đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą is denoted by đ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą and đ?&#x2018;&#x201E;đ?&#x2018;&#x201E;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą

respectively. The input prices of deposit funds, labour and capital is represented by đ?&#x2018;&#x160;đ?&#x2018;&#x160;1 ,đ?&#x2018;&#x160;đ?&#x2018;&#x160;2 and đ?&#x2018;&#x160;đ?&#x2018;&#x160;3 . Equation (5) shows the trans-log function of Equation (4). đ?&#x2018;&#x20AC;đ?&#x2018;&#x20AC;đ?&#x2018;&#x20AC;đ?&#x2018;&#x20AC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą =

đ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą đ?&#x2018;&#x201E;đ?&#x2018;&#x201E;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą

ďż˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝1 + đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝2 ln đ?&#x2018;&#x201E;đ?&#x2018;&#x201E;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą + â&#x2C6;&#x2018;3đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;=1 đ?&#x153;&#x192;đ?&#x153;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC; ln đ?&#x2018;&#x160;đ?&#x2018;&#x160;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;,đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą + đ?&#x203A;żđ?&#x203A;ż3 đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą ďż˝

(5).

3.1.2.3 ADJUSTED LERNER INDEX For the adjustment of conventional to Adjusted Lerner index, this paper followed the method used in (Koetter et al., 2012). The adjusted Lerner index is đ??żđ??żđ??żđ??żđ??żđ??żđ??żđ??żđ??żđ??żđ??żđ??ż (đ??´đ??´đ??´đ??´đ??´đ??´đ??´đ??´đ??´đ??´đ??´đ??´đ??´đ??´đ??´đ??´ ) =

đ?&#x153;&#x2039;đ?&#x153;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; +đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; â&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; â&#x2C6;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x17E;đ?&#x2018;&#x17E;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; đ?&#x153;&#x2039;đ?&#x153;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; +đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;

(6),

where đ?&#x153;&#x2039;đ?&#x153;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; ,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; , đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; â&#x2C6;&#x2014; đ?&#x2018;&#x17E;đ?&#x2018;&#x17E;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; denote the total profit, cost, marginal cost and output of banking institution đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;. The interpretation of values is the same just like the conventional Lerner index.

3.1.2.4 BOONE INDICATOR Based on the efficiency assumption, the Boone indicator defined as efficient banks is more compensated in a more competitive environment as compared to inefficient banks which are less compensated and more penalized (Boone, 2008). A complete explanation of the Boone indicator is given in (Boone et al., 2013). Profitability is used to capture the competition in the market đ?&#x2018;&#x2122;đ?&#x2018;&#x2122;đ?&#x2018;&#x2122;đ?&#x2018;&#x2122;đ?&#x153;&#x2039;đ?&#x153;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; = đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź + đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝ ln đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; + đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;

(7),

lđ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; = đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź + đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝ ln đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; + đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;

(8).

where đ?&#x153;&#x2039;đ?&#x153;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; , đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; represent the indicator of profit and costs; đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝ shows the slope and gives the value of competition. Theoretically, đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝ is not a positive value. This work used marginal cost instead of the average cost in the Boone indicator calculation. Equation (8) incorporates both changes that are marginal cost instead of average cost and market share instead of total profit Van et al. (2013).

*Corresponding author (M.Amir Alvi). Tel: +92-300-7841236. Email: amiralvi786@live.com ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9H http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9H.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.170

3.2 BANK STABILITY This study used the z-score as a proxy for the calculation of bank stability. Financial statements (Income statement & Balance sheet) data have been used (Roy, 1952; Ijtsma et al., 2017). Z-score is generally used in the calculation of the stability of financial institutions that include information about capital buffers, profitability, and standard deviation (SD) of return of assets. Z-score of banking institution đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; at time đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą is described as đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ??ľđ??ľ =

(đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;)+đ??žđ??žđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; đ?&#x203A;żđ?&#x203A;ż(đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;)

Bank return on an average asset at time đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą is denoted by đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;. Furthermore, đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; =

(9).

đ?&#x2018;&#x2019;đ?&#x2018;&#x2019;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;

đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;

is the total

equity to total asset ratio of banking institution đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; at time đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą, measured as a fraction of total equity denoted by (đ?&#x2018;&#x2019;đ?&#x2018;&#x2019;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; ) by total assets denoted by(đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; ). Finally, SD of bank return on average assets is denoted by Ď&#x192; (đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026; ).

3.3 ECONOMETRIC MODEL

This section discussed the model at the individual bank level that this study used in our empirical calculations to measure the bank competition and stability relationship in the financial market. The following studies will help select the appropriate model (Noman et al., 2017). đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą = đ?&#x153;&#x201D;đ?&#x153;&#x201D;0 + đ?&#x153;&#x201D;đ?&#x153;&#x201D;1 đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąâ&#x2C6;&#x2019;1 +đ?&#x153;&#x201D;đ?&#x153;&#x201D;2 đ??ľđ??ľđ??ľđ??ľđ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą + đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020; â&#x2C6;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;=1 đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą + đ?&#x153;?đ?&#x153;?đ?&#x153;?đ?&#x153;? â&#x2C6;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;=1 đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą + â&#x201E;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą

(10),

where, đ??ľđ??ľđ??ľđ??ľđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą refer to bank stability of bank đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; in a country đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014; at time đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą, đ??ľđ??ľđ??ľđ??ľđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąâ&#x2C6;&#x2019;1 is the lag value of

bank stability of banking institutions đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; in a country đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014; at time đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą and đ??ľđ??ľđ??ľđ??ľđ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą is bank competition of country đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014; at time đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą. đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą and đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą represent control variables respectively. â&#x201E;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą is the error term.

Country related control variables are GDP growth, Inflation, and real interest rate. Bank specific control variables are Assets, Loan loss provision ratio, loan to asset ratio, net interest margin and cost to income ratio. This study concerned only the significance of đ?&#x153;&#x201D;đ?&#x153;&#x201D;2 . Significant positive value is in the favour of financial inclusion-stability view which positive association of financial inclusion and stability (z-score).

4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION This section discusses the sample statistics, correlation analysis, pre-diagnostics of using the generalized method of moment (GMM), and mainly the regression results under the two-step system (GMM) methodology.

4.1 PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS The results of the descriptive statistics of the variables used in the model are shown in Table 1. The Z-score mean value shows that insolvency risk in these South Asian economies is not so high. It means that the commercial banks operating in these economies are stable. The mean values of bank and country-specific control variables are not so high. The mean values structure and nonstructure indicator of bank competition show that the banking sector in these economies is competitive in nature. All variables under the Levin-Lin-Chu test of stationary of all the variables in the paper are significant, so there is no issue of a unit root in data and data is stationary at level. The significant value of Wooldridge test, Breusch-Pagan/Cook-Weisberg test and Wu-Hausman test indicated that there is a problem of autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity, and endogeneity in the data.

M.Amir Alvi, A.Rafique

Therefore, the generalized method of the moment is an appropriate technique for estimation and better options to counter these problems. Table 2 demonstrates the pairwise correlation matrix among the variables of interest. There are two important repercussions of these correlations. Firstly, the correlation between bank competition (Structure and non-structure measures) and bank stability is significant. Secondly, the correlation between the right-hand side variables of the econometric model is not so high. This means that there is no issue of multi-collinearity in the variables that are regressed against the dependent variable. ***, ** and * demonstrates the coefficient are significant at 1%, 5%, and 10% significant level. Table 1: Sample statistics Variables Name Z-Score CR3-Assets CR3-Deposits CR3-Loans CR5-Assets CR5-Deposits CR5-Loans HHI-Assets HHI-Deposits HHI-Loans PRHS Lerner Index(C) Lerner Index(A) Boone Indicator Cost to Income Ratio Net interest Margin Loan to Asset ratio Loan Loss Provision ratio Total Assets GDP-Growth rate Real Interest rate Inflation

Mean 27.094 .391 .338 .384 .531 .462 .521 .094 .092 .092 .697 .031 .262 -.031 55.793 3.080 58.136 .843 24793.42 6.288 5.214 5.072

SD 10.481 .140 .133 .134 .174 .165 .170 .037 .038 .035 .175 .041 .086 .041 28.326 1.599 11.930 .919 57841.66 1.421 1.537 2.186

Minimum Values 17.504 .189 .194 .182 .305 .273 .296 .048 .048 .047 .322 .002 .031 -.241 19.327 -0.704 19.117 -2.849 16.524 3.209 2.214 .400

Maximum Values 43.644 .651 .640 .656 .849 .847 .852 .178 .172 .182 .914 .241 .452 -.002 591.836 16.808 86.730 8.379 562150.3 9.144 8.321 10.828

Table 2: Correlation Matrix Variables names 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 (1)Z-Score(log) -.14*** 1 (2)CR3-Assets -.11** .98*** 1 (3)CR5-Assets -.11** .98*** .99*** 1 (4)HHI-Assets .03 -.66*** -.72*** -.691*** 1 (5)PRHS .10* -.41*** -.29*** -.38*** .022 1 (6)Lerner Index(C) .21*** -.88*** -.84*** -.83*** .55*** .23*** 1 (7)Lerner Index(A) -.09* -.022 -.11** -.08* .041 -.35*** -.10* 1 (8)Boone Indicator -.13*** .24*** .26*** .26*** -.21*** .02 -.22*** -.13** 1 (9)Cost to Income Ratio .16*** .39*** .43*** .41*** -.37*** -.08* -.28*** -.12** -.01 1 (10)Net interest Margin .17*** -.39*** -.39*** -.34*** .32*** -.33*** .54*** .09* -.08* .04 1 (11)Loan to Asset ratio 1 (12)Loan Loss Provision ratio -.32*** -.09* -.18*** -.14*** .33*** -0.29*** .10** -.13** -.15*** -.14*** .08* -.15*** .04 -.09* -.05 .24*** -.40*** -.17*** .34*** -.36*** -.29*** -.11** .33*** 1 (13)Total Assets(log) -.021 -.44*** -.54*** -.49*** .56*** -.19*** .35*** .13** -.20*** -.30*** .27*** .33*** .37*** 1 (14)GDP-Growth rate -.037 .10** .09* .087* -.06 .04 -.16*** -.154*** .03 -.00 -.23*** .08* .07 0.06 1 (15)Real Interest rate .12** -.29*** -.24*** -.25*** .15*** .17*** .35*** .10* -.04 .01 .22*** -.15*** -.26*** -0.16*** -0.62*** (16)Inflation

4.2 MAIN FINDINGS The two-step system generalized method of movement is applied to the stability model of Equation (10) and results are depicted in Tables 3 and 4. Models (1-9) consist of a structure measure of bank competition and the dependent variable (stability) is measured as Z-score (log). Models (10-13) consist of a non-structure measure of bank competition. In Models (1-3), the *Corresponding author (M.Amir Alvi). Tel: +92-300-7841236. Email: amiralvi786@live.com ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9H http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9H.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.170

Concentration ratio of the three largest banks based on Assets, deposits and Loans are used as an independent variable that is bank competition. In Model (4-6), the Concentration ratio of five largest banks based on Assets, Deposits and Loans are used as an independent variable. Table 3: Regression Results (Dependent variable: Bank stability) (Z values are in the parenthesis). Variables L.Z-Score Competition Cost to Income ratio Net Interest Margin Loan to Assets ratio Loan Loss Provision ratio Total Assets(log) GDP-Growth rate Real Interest Rate Inflation AR(2) Hansen Test Wooldridge test Breusch-Pagan / Cook Weisberg test Wu-Hausman test

Model (1) .353*** (2.49) .354*** (3.02) -.002* (-1.8) .009*** (2.65) -.002 (-.58) -.006** (-2.55) -.055*** (-2.17) -.004* (-1.67) -.001 (-.54) .002** (1.98) 0.839 .439 35.101*** 52.60*** 3.701***

Model (2) .395*** (2.45) .038 (.98) -.001* (-1.74) .009** ( 2.90) -.001 (-.92) -.004** (-1.89) -.066** (-2.47) -.003 (-1.12) .001 (.81) .002** (1.98) .557 .328 35.199*** 46.01*** 3.521*

Model (3) .365*** (2.66) .279*** (3.27) -.001* (-1.85) .009* (2.68) -.001 (-.81) -.006*** (-2.61) -.052** (-2.12) -.001 (-.58) -.001 (-1.06) .001 (.72) .775 .525 35.199*** 51.36*** 3.371*

Model (4) .347** ( 2.34) .568*** ( 3.45) -.001* (-1.72) .009* (2.75) -.001 (-.42) -.006** (-2.47) -.052** (-2.05) -.003 (-1.30) -.002 (-1.33) .001 (.69) .84 .455 35.665*** 55.20*** 3.037*

Model (5) .405*** (2.64) .051 (1.47) -.001* (-1.77) .009*** (2.73) -.001 (-.97) -.005** (-1.94) -.068** (-2.47) -.003 (-1.15) .001 (.83) .002** (2.16) .514 .312 34.806*** 45.62*** 3.027*

Model (6) .355*** (2.54) .409*** ( 3.82) -.001* (-1.88) .009** (2.54) -.001 (-.73) -.006*** (-2.59) -.049** (-1.92) -.001 (-.31) -.002 (-1.28) .001 (.48) .56 .464 34.580*** 53.30*** 3.056*

Table 4: Regression Results (Dependent variable: Bank stability) (Z values are in the parenthesis). Variables

Model (7) Model (8) Model (9) Model (10) Model (11) Model (12) Model (13) .343** .377*** .372*** .428*** .425*** .409*** .393*** L.Z-Score ( 2.21) ( 2.43) (2.57) ( 3.10) (2.94) (2.78) (2.83) .272*** .101** .236** -.022** -.011** -.004** -.00259** Competition ( 2.65) (2.17) ( 2.10) ( -2.42) (-2.21) (-2.44) (-2.47) -.001* -.001* -.001** -.001* -.001** -.001** -.001** Cost to Income ratio (-1.72) (-1.80) (-1.95) (-1.88) (-2.03) (-1.89) (-1.89) .009*** .009*** -.009*** .009*** .007** .009*** .009*** Net Interest Margin (2.81) (2.86) (-2.78) (2.60) ( 2.21) (3.04) (2.83) -.001 -.001 -.001 -.001 -.001 -.001 -.001 Loan to Assets ratio (-0.84) (-1.30) (-1.67) (-1.36) (-.90) (-1.30) (-.91) -.006*** -.005** -.005** -.005* -.004** -.005** -.006** Loan Loss Provision ratio (-2.44) (-2.25) (-2.39) (-1.93) (-2.05) ( -2.26) (-2.45) -.051** -.050 -.056** -.070*** -.076*** -.066*** -.055** Total Assets(log) (-2.29) (-2.25) (-2.43) (-2.64) ( -2.99) (-2.65) (-2.19) -.058** -.006* -.004 -.004 -.002 -.002 -.001 GDP-Growth rate (-2.08) (-2.08) (-1.65) (-.070) (-1.06) (-.99) (-.67) -.001 -.002 .001 .002 .001 .001 .001 Real Interest rate (-.48) (-.89) (.48) (1.48) (1.27) (1.49) (.07) .001* .001 .002* .003*** .003*** .003*** .002** Inflation (1.65) (.79) (1.83) (2.79) (2.98) (3.26) (2.21) AR(2) .713 .575 .595 .711 .64 .668 .829 Hansen test .477 .269 .472 .218 .295 .313 .308 Wooldridge test 36.606*** 36.146*** 37.715*** 44.731*** 33.046*** 34.807*** 35.852*** Breusch-Pagan / Cook Weisberg test 53.22*** 52.83*** 53.11*** 52.50*** 45.46*** 71.16*** 36.33*** Wu-Hausman test 4.022** 0.001 3.008* 4.599* 3.111* 3.234* 4.285* Note: ***, ** and * demonstrates the coefficient are significant at 1%, 5% and 10% level of significance. The time dummy variable also included in the regression models.

In models (7-9), the Hirschman Herfindahl index on the base of Assets, deposits and Loans is used as an independent variable that bank competition. In model (10), PRHS is used as a measure of bank competition. In model (11), the Conventional Lerner index is used to capture bank competition. In model (12), the Adjusted Lerner index is used as a measure of bank competition. In

M.Amir Alvi, A.Rafique

model (13), the Boone indicator is used as an efficiency adjusted measure of bank competition. The values in the table demonstrate that the coefficient for structure measures of bank competition is positive and also coefficient on non-structure measures of bank competition is negative for all models. The results also in favor of the negative linkage between bank competition and stability; that is a higher level of competition reduces the stability of banks. The findings using the structure and non-structure measures of bank competition for South Asian economies are in favour of the competition-fragility hypothesis. The results are also aligned with those suggested by (Leroy & Lucotte, 2017; Albaity et al., 2019).

5. CONCLUSION This study explores the relationship between bank competition and stability of banking institutions in the financial market covering four South Asian region economies. These four economies include Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka covering the period 2012-2018 using a variety of measures of competition. Balanced panel data is used for analysis. Every measure of bank competition is regressed separately in bank stability models. Our results support the competition-fragility hypothesis that indicates that bank competition has a negative impact on stability. In simple words, enhancement in bank competition results in reduce the stability of banks in South Asian economies. The main findings have significant policy implications for policymakers. Firstly, key results do not only highlight the correlation between bank competition and stability but also demonstrate a correlation between bank concentration and stability as well. The overall results are strongly in the favour of competition-fragility hypothesis which explains that banks having higher market power are usually stable in the long run. A strict policy of mergers of small and medium-sized banks should be adopted to stabilize the financial sector of the economy. The overall performance of the financial sector achieves by merging small with large banks. However, policymakers are cautious in merging of banks as it would ultimately enhance the bank concentration in the market. Furthermore, minimum capital requirements and entry barriers are also imposed to enhance financial soundness. The government can scrutinize these types of strategies like a greater capital requirement, bank consolidation and degree of co-integration of markets internationally to prevent future financial crises. To strengthen Global Financial Safety Net (GFSN), the Financial Stability Board (FSB, 2018) works with G20, since the Global financial crisis incurred. These developments emphasize four key aspects: arrangements of regional financing, adequate foreign reserves, two-way swap lines between state banks of two countries, fiscal space at the international level and IMF as a supplier of finance globally.

6. DATA AND MATERIAL AVAILABILITY The corresponding author will be liable to provide information regarding this paper.

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M.Amir Alvi, A.Rafique

Marquez, R. (2002). Competition, adverse selection, and information dispersion in the banking industry. The Review of Financial Studies, 15(3), 901-926. Merton, R. C. (1977). An analytic derivation of the cost of deposit insurance and loan guarantees an application of modern option pricing theory. Journal of Banking & Finance, 1(1), 3-11. Minh, S., Hong, V., Hoang, L., & Thuy, T. (2020). Does banking market power matter on financial stability? Management Science Letters, 10(2), 343-350. Mishkin, F. S. (1999). Financial consolidation: Dangers and opportunities. Journal of Banking & Finance, 23(2-4), 675-691. Nier, E., Yang, J., Yorulmazer, T., & Alentorn, A. (2007). Network models and financial stability. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 31(6), 2033-2060. Noman, A. H. M., Gee, C. S., & Isa, C. R. (2017). Does competition improve the financial stability of the banking sector in ASEAN countries? An empirical analysis. PloS one, 12(5), e0176546. Panzar, J. C., & Rosse, J. N. (1982). Structure, conduct, and comparative statistics. Bell Telephone Laboratories. Roy, A. D. (1952). Safety first and the holding of assets. Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society, 431-449. Soedarmono, W., Machrouh, F., & Tarazi, A. (2013). Bank competition, crisis, and risk-taking: Evidence from emerging markets in Asia. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 23, 196-221. Stiglitz, J. E., & Weiss, A. (1981). Credit rationing in markets with imperfect information. The American economic review, 71(3), 393-410. Wagner, W. (2010). Diversification at financial institutions and systemic crises. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 19(3), 373-386. Muhammad Amir Alvi is a PhD scholar at Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Pakistan. He got his Master’s degree in Finance, from COMSATS Islamabad Campus. His research interests include Bank Competition, Financial Inclusion, Stability, Stock Market Integration, Behavioral Finance, and Risk.

Dr. Amir Rafique is an Assistant Professor of Finance at COMSATS University Islamabad, Pakistan. He earns a PhD in Management Science from SZABIST Islamabad, Pakistan. He is interested in Stock Market Integration, Volatility, Terrorism, Financial Crisis, Investor’s Decision Making, Data Science and Risk.

*Corresponding author (M.Amir Alvi). Tel: +92-300-7841236. Email: amiralvi786@live.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9H http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9H.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.170

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A9I

A REVIEW ON BIOMASS GASIFICATION FOR FUEL CELLS Sucharita Mohanty 1 2

, Gowreesh S Subramanya , Prathibha B S

Department of Mechanical Engineering, JSS Academy of Technical Education, Bangalore, INDIA. Department of Chemistry, B.N.M. Institute of Technology, Bangalore, INDIA.

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 07 January 2020 Received in revised form 04 March 2020 Accepted 23 March 2020 Available online 30 March 2020

Biomass has been used as a supply of heat energy since man initially discovered fire. Biomass energy is obtained in many ways and numerous fuels are extracted from it. Traditional biomass conversion technologies like direct combustion, digestion, fermentation, and pyrolysis give low electrical efficiency compared to biomass gasification with fuel cells. The proper gasifier technologies selection supported the compatibility of the fuel cell. Fuel cell technology can be used as a standalone system or integrated with various technologies like Biomass gasification, ORC, GT, or MGT for electricity generation. The current paper included a review of different biomasses, gas cleaning methods, solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC), and finally the integration of biomass gasifiers with SOFC. Gas cleaning methods remove particulates, organic and inorganic impurities which reduces the performance of biomass-derived gases and fuel cells especially if we select gasification technology. Therefore, more researches are needed to produce a better gas cleaning system for SOFC to reduce the impurities, improve the efficiency and economical designing of the system. Therefore, the start towards the technical realization of the system is ready and presented in this paper.

Keywords: Biofuels, Gasifier, SynGas, Gas cleaning, SOFC, Gasification Technology; Combustible gases; biomass-derived gas; Biomass gasification (BG); HCl; BG-SOFC.

1. INTRODUCTION The world population has experienced continuous growth and expected to reach 9 billion by 2050 for which the global demand for energy is increasing rapidly (Perea, et al. 2019). With the ample use of fossil fuels, increasing emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels and the rapid increase in the cost of fuels cause environmental pollutions and energy scarcity. With total energy demand increasing day by day the quantity of non-renewable energy is also depleting at an alarming rate (Jing, 2011). In response to such problems, considerable research work is performed in search of clean, renewable alternatives for sustainable development (Meng et al., 2006). Biomass is one of the major renewable energy sources and available plenty on earth (Mao et al. 2018). Biomass *Corresponding author (S.Mohanty) Tel: +91-8884896021. Email: mohantysucharita3@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9I http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9I.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.171

Energy conversion can be done in two ways: (i) thermochemical and (ii) biochemical. In the thermochemical conversion process, biomass breaks down into its fundamental elements like biofuels, gases, and chemicals due to the applications of heat and pressure (Dincer, 2012). Different types of thermochemical processes are combustion, Pyrolysis, gasification, and liquefaction (Meng et al. 2006). Conventional biomass combustion-based technologies produced lowest electrical efficiency i.e. 20-25%, whereas Biomass Gasification (BG) combined with modern power generation systems like Gas Turbines and other IC Engines or Fuel Cells gives much higher efficiencies (Doherty, 2014). BG is a means of imperfect combustion of biomass which in turn produces combustible gases like carbon monoxide (CO), hydrogen (H2) and methane (CH4 ). Both liquid and gaseous fuels are generated from biomass. But compared to gas the biomass to liquid alteration efficiency is low (Huang and Zhang, 2011). However, more investigations are occurring on fuel cells due to its higher efficiency than IC Engines, and SOFC receives significant attention because of its simplicity and viability (Stambouli, 2011). Fuel cells are considered as one of the major energy resources by many researchers and also the energy admittance of the 21st century (Bocci et al. 2016). Fuel cells can convert chemical energy of the biomass-derived gas to electrical energy with higher efficiency in a CO2 neutral manner, leading to a much lesser environmental impact than the conventional power plants (Carlo, 2011, Larmininie, 2003 and Orecchine et al. 2005). Gas cleaning methods are used to remove the particulates, organic and inorganic impurities from the product gas. Hot gas technology could improve energy efficiency by reducing the loss of thermal energy and also lower operational costs by utilizing high-temperature biomass-derived gas. This work will give a brief review of BG-SOFC systems as the most inventive and well-grounded technology.

1.1 TECHNICAL OUTLINE The technical outline of the BG-SOFC system is given in Figure 1. Gasification Biomass Handling

Biomass Feedstock

• • • •

Feed stock Types Gasifier type Gasification agent Operating parameters

HighTempSyngas Gas Purification

Fuel Cell Electricity Heat

Figure 1: Technological Overview. BG-SOFC system has four major components. Usually, in the biomass handling system, the biomass feedstock is crushed into pieces. Then the prepared feedstock through the process of gasification is transferred into combustible gases or product gases. The quality of product gases depends on many factors like types of feedstock, gasifier, factors affecting gasification, and operating parameters. Product gases mainly consist of hydrogen, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrogen, water vapor and impurities like organic compounds (tar), particulates, sulfur, and alkali compounds. In the next step, using various gas cleaning methods removal of the impurities from the product gas is taken place for the selected fuel cell type.

S. MOHANTY, G.S SUBRAMANYA , PRATHIBHA B S

2. BIOMASS FEEDSTOCK OPTIONS AND CONVERSION PROCESSES Biomass is a feasible resource and environmentally favorable due to its less carbon emission and other harmful emissions like nitrogen oxides and sulfur oxides. Biomass energy is the energy contained in plants and non-fossil organic matter. Varieties of biomasses are: (i)

Energy crops

(ii)

Agricultural remains & unwanted biomass-derived products.

(iii) Forestry waste & residues (iv)

Industrial and Municipal residues (Meng Ni et al. 2006)

To convert biomass into useful products, several processes are used depending on characteristics, energy requirements, and its application (Sansaniwalet al., 2017). Energy Conversion processes from biomass

Biological

Thermochemical o

Combustion

Pyrolysis

Liquefaction

Gasification

o o o

Biophotolysis (Direct & Indirect) Water gas shift reaction Photo fermentation

Figure 2: Biomass Conversion Processes BG is a process of incomplete combustion of biomass which converts thermally solid/liquid organic compound into a combustible gas mixture. The produced gas mixture, called ‘syngas’, consists of hydrogen, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, methane along with nitrogen, water vapour and impurities. The calorific value of the syngas varies from 4-13 MJ/Nm3, depends on biomass, gasification technology, and various operating parameters (Qian et al. 2013 and Wu et al. 2014). Gasification reactions are endothermic and the required energy is obtained through an allothermal and auto thermal process. The energy required for gasification is obtained through partial combustion during the auto-thermal process and during the allothermal process, the energy supplied externally from outside the gasifier through heated bed material or from the exhausted fuel and air streams of SOFC (Din and Zainal, 2016). Gasification stages are Oxidation Stage, Drying stage, Pyrolysis stage, and Reduction Stage.

3. GAS PURIFICATION SYSTEMS The gas generated in gasifiers accommodate unwanted substances such as tar, solid particulates, ammonia, hydrochloric acid, sulfur compounds, and alkali metal species and must be removed to the acceptable levels and cleaned properly for the efficient operations of fuel cells and to meet pollution control regulations. Din and Zainal (2016) gives the six types of impurities in producer gas and its different phases are shown in. The cleaning process is classified into many types. If the impurities are removed internally, known as “primary or in-situ” clean up whereas if cleaning of the impurities taken place *Corresponding author (S.Mohanty) Tel: +91-8884896021. Email: mohantysucharita3@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9I http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9I.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.171

downstream outside of the gasifier then it is known as “secondary cleanup process”.

3.1 PHYSICAL GAS CLEANING PROCESSES Filtration or wet scrubbing methods used to remove the contaminant products by means of gas solid or gas-liquid interactions. Wet scrubbing and filter hauling usually happen at low or ambient temperature conditions and at high temperature respectively using the materials such as ceramics, composites, sand & fiber glass etc. Characteristics of tar and other particles for various applications are presented Sansaniwal et al. (2017). 3.1.1 THERMAL TAR CRACKING Thermal cracking is the decomposition of large atomic tar compounds into the lighter gases like methane, hydrogen and carbon dioxide at a higher temperature around 100°c for a certain period (Christopher, 2008). The tar quantity above 50-100 mg/Nm3 was considered critical for the end-user applications. Using any of the gas cleaning methods it can be reduced. Various studies on thermal cracking are presented in Han (2008), Anis et al. (2011), Andrea et al. (2012) and Teernai et al. (2013). 3.1.2 CATALYTIC TAR CONVERSION The catalytic cracking method is used for very fewer tar concentrations of 50-100 mg/Nm3, used in the secondary tar reformers or downstream applications outside the gasifiers. One of the major advantages of catalytic process over the physical and thermal cracking process is it can be used without further heating up or cooling down as same temperature as existing gas having. A comprehensive outline of tar cracking catalysts with their features given in Din and Zainal (2016). 3.1.3 COLD AND HOT-GAS FILTRATION In the cold gas filtration cleaning system, cooling of the end product gas is required either before cleaning or after cleaning for downstream applications. Cold gas filtration is classified as dry gas cleaning (Raman et al. 2013 and Sharma et al. 2010) or wet gas cleaning (Shave et al. 2008). But according to VDI (2010), in hot gas filtration producer gas cleaning is carried out at 260°C. A comprehensive outlines of cold and hot gas filtration presented along with their merits and demerits in Din and Zainal (2016).

4. SOFC SYSTEM DESCRIPTION Considering the environmental issues, the fuel cell has received considerable attention as ultraclean, highly efficient energy conversion device. Fuel cells can continuously make electricity if they have a constant fuel supply. Low-temperature fuel cells such as PEMFC, AFC and PAFC require uses hydrogen as the only fuel whereas high-temperature fuel cells MCFC and SOFC use the only hydrocarbon as a fuel. One of the advantages of MCFC and SOFC is Light hydrocarbons are internally reformed to H2 and CO due to their high operating temperature (Din and Zainal, 2016). Power generation using SOFC technology can reduce emissions, allow fuel flexibility and attain efficiency. The advantages of SOFC over MCFC are it has a solid construction with several stack configurations while MCFC cannot be aligned in individual directions. BG usually takes place around 900°C which is the typical operating temperature of SOFC i.e. 600-1000°C that makes the coupling of Biomass gasification-solid oxide fuel cell (BG-SOFC) simple & feasible. Presently more researches are carried out in SOFC on the identification and incorporation of ingenious materials for

S. MOHANTY, G.S SUBRAMANYA , PRATHIBHA B S

anode, cathode and electrolytes that can reduce its cost and enhance the long-lasting SOFC. In high temperature, the electrolyte of SOFC made up of Yttria Stabilized Zirconia (YSZ), a solid completely gas impermeable material contains high ionic conductivity and no electronic conductivity helped in conduction of oxygen ion. Oxygen in cathode gets reduced to the oxygen ions moved to the anode through the solid electrolyte. oxygen ions at anode combine with hydrogen produces water and carbon dioxide (Irshad et al. 2016). Nickel is used as an anode material because of its ability to withstand the operating conditions of SOFC: reducing conditions and acting as a good catalyst at 1000°C and intensify the fuel oxidation. Other possible materials are cobalt and noble metals. Another type of Ni/GDC (Gadolinium Doped Ceria) operates well with hydrocarbon fuel compared to YSZ (Jiang and Chan, 2004). It is observed that different fuel does not have a major impact on the performance of SOFC while the use of carbon-based fuel creates a problem.

5. SOME FEATURES ON GAS IMPURITIES FOR SOFC APPLICATIONS Various types of anode and its characteristics play an important role in SOFC performance on producer gas. Fuel cell performance mainly depends on the characteristics of the impurities, concentration level and poisoning technique and this can be avoided by appropriate selection of biomass type, gasification technology and operating parameters (Sharma et al. 2016).

5.1 STUDIES ON PARTICULATE MATTER For better performance of SOFC Particle size must be decreased to a size a few PPMW probably. An impurity characteristic in producer gas is given in Table 3 of Din and Zainal, (2016). Hofmann et al. (2008) reported its experiment on SOFC that increased exposure to the particulate matter could block the Ni/GDC anode, reduces the effective gas diffusion path and cause pull off of anode layer due to the reduce the catalytic area of anode through mechanically produced tension.

5.2 STUDIES ON TAR Tar removal must be carried out before it condenses i.e.at 400°C-450°C before particulate evicted. The presence of tar in the dry state leads to carbon deposition on the anode, deactivate the catalysts (Ni), and degenerate the cell (Mermelstein et al. 2009 and Liu et al. 2011). A few researchers investigated tar to be a fuel that helps in electricity production by resolving and oxidizing. Mermelstein et al. (2010) observed that cell anode with benzene (2-15 gm/m3) operated at a temperature of 765°C for 3h causes a significant reduction in carbon deposition with the increase of S/C ratio (>1). Paul et al. (2015) noted that syngas with contaminated toluene compared to uncontaminated syngas below 700°C decreases the amount of carbon and produces less graphite carbon. .However, at 700°C or above the number of carbon increases and produces more graphite carbon. Hofmann et al. (2008) observed that no carbon deposition occurs at a concentration of 1mg/m3 of real tar on Ni/GDC anode whereas slight carbon deposition takes place when the concentration was 3000 mg/m3 and the fuel utilization factor was high about 75% with a further higher concentration (10g/Nm3). It is concluded from the currently published results that further research is required to study the impact of tars on SOFC anode different operating conditions for longer durations.

5.3 STUDIES ON H₂S, NH3, HCL The influence of H2S on SOFC anode is reversible up to a few ppmv while causes *Corresponding author (S.Mohanty) Tel: +91-8884896021. Email: mohantysucharita3@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9I http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9I.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.171

irreversible damage at higher concentrations. Northim et al. (2007) tested a cell contain Ni/YSZ anode with a mixture of H2/CO2 and H2S. They observed that up to 80ppm of Sulfur content a 2.5% drop in cell voltage occurs but no further decay took place with a concentration of 80-100ppm. Aravind and DeJong (2012) studied Ni/GDC anode is not affected by a few ppmv of H2S for shortterm operation. Arvind et al. (2013) reported Ni/GDC anode can tolerate 9ppmv HCl at 850°C, H2 as fuel and cell performance did not decay in 90min. Xu et al. (2010) reported 1.6% performance loss in Ni/YSZ anode supported SOFC during the 300h test which is relatively very less than reported by Trembly et al. (2007) and Hagal et al. (2008). From the discussed literature, it concludes that cleaning of HCl to a few ppm in SOFC is required for better performance.

6. BIOMASS INTEGRATED GASIFICATION-SOFC SYSTEMS BG-SOFC offers higher electrical efficiencies due to higher operating temperatures and fuel flexibility. In the past years, many theoretical, experimental, thermodynamic investigations, as well as simulation analysis, were taken place to determine required operating conditions of SOFC, the technical feasibility of the system, efficiency as well as the merits and demerits of a variety of SOFC system with biomass gasification system. Subotic et al. (2019) performed experimental and numerical analyses on SOFC single cells of industrial-size at an operating temperature of 750 °C fueled with producer gas from a downdraft gasifier, with hot gas cleaning taking the highest fuel utilization into account. Also, they did an additional 120h long-term test to find the local degradation of cells under stated operating conditions using the online-monitoring tool locally. Perna et al. (2018) studied the performance of an integrated micro gas turbine (MGT) and a solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) fed by the syngas generated by a biomass downdraft gasifier. They observed that best performances were obtained at MGT pressure ratio equal to 4.5 and the S/C ratio to 0 which in term gives electric power is 262 kW (SOFC supplies 180kw), thermal power is 405 kW and the electric (AC) and cogeneration efficiencies are 35% and 88% respectively. Rasmus et al. (2017) conducted from five tests including polarization tests at various gas flows to study the performance of the two-stage Viking gasifier. The study compared experimentally the potential and feasibility of SOFC gasification system with a commercial gasifier and a SOFC stack provides biomass to electricity efficiency up to 43%. Qui et al. (2019) studied the performance of DC-SOFC using carbon-rich biochar derived from wheat straw, corncob, and biogases respectively as the fuels. Cells with bagasse char give the highest output performance of 260mw/cm²whereas the cells with wheat straw char and corn cob char gives peak power densities of 187 and 204mW/cm² at 800°C and the test continued for 15h, 24h, and 22h respectively. They also found that the higher CO concentration represented the faster Boudourd reaction on the fuel. Dey et al. (2014) studied the performance of hybrid SOFC-gasifiers for different types of biomass input using the Aspen Plus model for gasifier reactions and 1D mathematical fuel cell. They conducted a test on a Coconut shell and sugar cane and found that SOFC with sugarcane biogases gives good performance i.e. power density of 0.58W/m2 whereas coconut shell shows least power density i.e. 0.56W/m2 . Paengjuntuek et al. (2015) studied the energy performance of integrated biomass gasification fuel cell systems with rice straw feedstock for power generation. They found that at the optimal operating conditions with 205.35 kg rice straw/hr the total power generation from the steam turbine and SOFC is 1395.61 kW, electrical efficiency 39.55%, thermal efficiency 29.83% and total energy efficiency 69.38%. Skrzypkiewicz et al. (2016) conducted tests on a SOFC stack fueled by syngas

S. MOHANTY, G.S SUBRAMANYA , PRATHIBHA B S

using wood chips as the biomass input. They found that the gasifier converted 30 kW of fuel to syngas with an efficiency of 75%. They performed long term tests on SOFC stack fueled with the reference fuel, synthetic syngas, and the real syngas coming from gasification and concluded from the current-voltage characteristics and power curves that reference fuel gives the highest stack power of 1.1 kW. However, within the case of artificial syngas and also the syngas obtained from the gasification method process electrical power of the stack is less than for reference fuel about 250 W. It was observed that synthetic syngas operated similar to parameters for real syngas produced from the biomass gasification process, produces fewer impurities in the fuel to a good tolerance of SOFC cell. Readily seen from literature, researchers have worked theoretically and experimentally for the development of BG-SOFC systems and it has to turn out as a promising technology.

7. CONCLUSION Biomass is a renewable energy source in terms of both environmentally friendly and secured energy sources. The efficient utilization of biomass resources to produce heat and electricity is of utmost importance if it reduces the need for fossil fuels. The producer gas generated in the gasifier contains impurities particulates, tar, and alkali compounds and needs to be cleaned at various temperatures using available gas cleaning methods to meet SOFC performance. Various cleanup methods of biomass in gasification systems increase the complexity and capital costs of the system, but recently generated hot gas cleaning methods improve reliability, the efficiency of the system to a large extent. Still, the effect of impurities is an issue. The progress made in the last few decades is noticeable however no commercial systems are yet available and also the performance of the technology is challenged by few technical issues like anode materials, gasification processes, cleaning of impurities, etc. needs more attention. In the future, there are more researches needs to be carried out about more tolerant new anode materials towards impurities also elaborated investigations on the reaction mechanism find the cell degradation that reduces the cost of cleaning. Current literature does not provide sufficient information to enumerate characteristics of the contaminants with SOFC components. So that the limit for the different contaminants can be set. This study explores the feasibility of the BG-SOFC system with higher electrical efficiency and lower greenhouse gas emissions. Nevertheless, further work and researches are needed towards the improvement of system efficiency and reliability towards designing an economically feasible and environmentally sustainable fuel cell technology.

8. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIAL Information can be made available by contacting the corresponding author 9.

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S. MOHANTY, G.S SUBRAMANYA , PRATHIBHA B S

Mermelstein J, Millan M, Brandon N. (2010). The impact of steam and current density formation from biomass gasification tar on Ni/YSZ and Ni/CGO solid oxide fuel cell anodes. J Power sources 195:1657-66. Monikankana Sharma, Rakesh N, S. Dasappa. (2016). Solid oxide fuel cell operating with biomass derived producer gas: Status and Challenges. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 60: 450-463. MuneebIrshad, Khurram Siraj, Rizwan Raza, Anwar Ali, Mohammad Kallem Ullah, Arslen Usman. (2016). A brief description of high temperature SOFCs operation, Materials, Design, Fabrication Technologies and performance. Applied sciences. Northem A, Waernhus I, Brostrom M, Hustad JE, Vika. (2007). Experimental studies on the influence of H2S on SOFC performance at 800°C. .Energy fuels, 21: 1098-101. Orecchine F, Bocci E, Di Carlo A. (2005). Process simulation of a neutral emission plant using chestnut’s Coppice gasification and molten carbonate fuelcells. J fuelcell Sci Technol, 5. Paul Boldrin et al. (2015). Effect of sulfur and tar contaminated syngas on solid oxide fuel cell anode materials. Energy fuels, 29, 1, 442-446. Perea-Moreno, M.-A.; Samerón-Manzano, E., Perea-Moreno, A.-J. (2019). Biomass as Renewable Energy: Worldwide Research Trends. Sustainability, 11, 863. Qianyuan Qui, et al. (2019). A comparative investigation on direct carbon solid oxide fuel cells operated with fuels with biochar derived from wheat straw, corn cob and bagases. Biomass and Bioenergy, 121:56-63. Raman P, Ram NK, Gupta R. (2013). A dual fired downdraft gasifier system to produce cleaner gas forpowergeneration:design, development and performance analysis. Energy, 54:302-14. Rasmus Ostergaard et al. (2017). Solid oxide fuel cells powered by biomass gasification for high efficiency power generation Energy. Energy. 131: 198-206. S.K. Sansaniwal, K.Pal, M.A. Rosen, S.K Tyagi. (2017). Recent advances in the development of biomass gasification technology: A comprehensive review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 72:363-384. Sharma S D, et al. (2010). Recent developments in dry hot syngas cleaning processes. Fuel, 89:817-26. Shave A G, Vyas DK, Patel J B. (2008). A wet packed bed scrubber based producer gas cooling cleaning system. Renew Energy, 33: 1716-20. Stambouli, AB. (2011). Fuelcells: the expectations for an environmental friendly and sustainable source of energy”. Renew sustain Energy Rev, 15:4507-20. Tapobrata Dey, et al. (2014). SOFC power generation system by bio-gasification. Energy Procedia, 316: 748-755. Trembly JP, Gemmen RS, Bayless DJ. (2007). The effect of coal syngas containing HCl on the performance of solid oxide fuel cells: Investigations into the effect of operational temperature and HCl concentration. J Power sources, 169: 347-54. Vanja Subotic et al. (2019). Applicability of the SOFC technology for coupling with biomass-gasifier systems: short- and long-term experimental study on SOFC performance and degradation behavior. Applied Energy, 256: 113904. VDI. (2010). VDI Guideline 3677 sheet 3 draft. Woranee Paengjuntuek, Jirasak Boonmak, Jitti Mungkalasiri. (2015). Energy Efficiency Analysis in An Integrated Biomass Gasification Fuel Cell System. Energy Procedia, 79: 430-435. Y. Wu, W. Yang, W. Blasiak. (2014). Energies, 7: 2017-2122. *Corresponding author (S.Mohanty) Tel: +91-8884896021. Email: mohantysucharita3@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9I http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9I.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.171

Zia Ud Din, Z.A. Zainal (2016). Biomass integrated gasification-SOFC systems: Technology overview. Renewable & Sustainable Energy reviews, 53:1356-1376. Sucharita Mohanty is a student in the Department of Mechanical Engineering, JSS Academy of Technical Education, Bangalore, affiliated to Visvesvaraya Technological University, Belagavi, India. She got her Master’s degree in Heat Power Engineering from Biju Pattanik University of Technology, Odisha, India. Her research focuses on Biomass Gasifications and Fuelcells.

Dr.Gowreesh Subramanya is an Associate Professor in the Department of Mechanical Engineering, JSS Academy of Technical Education, Bangalore, affiliated to Visvesvaraya Technological University, Belagavi, India. He earned his B.E. in Mechanical Engineering and a Master’s degree in Thermal Engineering and PhD in Mechanical Engineering from JNTU, Hyderabad, India. His research interests include Computational Fluid Dynamics, Finite Element Methods and Thermal Management.

Dr.Prathibha B.S. is an Associate Professor at Department of Chemistry, BNM Institute of Technology, Bengaluru. obtained her Ph.D. from Kalasalingam University, Tamil Nadu, India. She authors a Book titled “Quaternary ammonium compounds as corrosion inhibitor”. Her area of research includes corrosion, Nanotechnology and Fuel cells. She has conferred with Indira Priyadarshini National Award for her achievements.

S. MOHANTY, G.S SUBRAMANYA , PRATHIBHA B S

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A9J

A STUDY ON DISABLED POPULATION IN RUSSIA AND KURGAN REGION N.L. Egorova 1

, V.A. Dubovskaya , S.A. Musikhina , L.C. Dmitriyevskikh

Department of Defectology, Kurgan State University, Russia, RUSSIA.

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Article history: Received 03 January 2020 Received in revised form 05 March 2020 Accepted 16 March 2020 Available online 28 March 2020

This article clarifies the need to analyze statistical data in connection with the increase in the disability rate within the Russian Federation and the Kurgan region. The study presents the main results of the research on disability and trends in the number of people with disabilities in Russia and the Kurgan region for 2017-2019. The basic concepts have been specified and differentiated: disabled people, disability, persons with special healthcare needs, incapacitation. The data analysis on the ratio of the disability rate of the population in different age groups on the territory of the Russian Federation is given. The data on the total number of disabled people and childhood disability in the Russian Federation, the Ural region, and the Kurgan region are specified. Several statistical parameters on the distribution of the number of disabled people by gender and the specificity of the childhood disability prevalence in different age groups are considered. The ratio of the disabled children to the total number of the disabled people of the Kurgan region and the Russian Federation is allocated. An attempt is made to rank the statistical data on the disability prevalence in the Kurgan region in comparison with other regions of the Russian Federation. The results of the study can be used by students, magistrates, postgraduates in scientific activities and to involve the public in this problem.

Keywords: Disabled statistics; Disabled person; Childhood disability; Person with special healthcare needs; Handicap population; Incapacitation; disabled children.

1. INTRODUCTION One of the important issues of modern society is the problem of the disability rate, taking into account its medical, social, moral, and economic value. The disabled people are a group of the population that includes persons with special healthcare needs in view of health characteristics. The number of disabled people in the world and in Russia, in particular, has been steadily increasing, especially against the background of the general worsening in the demographic situation, which is a serious concern of the society. That is why *Corresponding author (N. L. Egorova). Email: natacha10022010@mail.ru ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9J http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9J.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.172

today the state is especially focusing on the survey of the prevalence of persons with disability and special healthcare needs in various regions of Russia; on the identification of trends in the number of this category of people; on the research on the disability rate in different age groups and the development of the activities, aimed at improving all life aspects the disabled and people with special healthcare needs. The significant role is given to the statistics that allows calculating the number of people with disability and special healthcare needs as well as providing information on their lives, difficulties, and needs. Disability and special healthcare needs are different notions. In a broad sense, all the disabled persons are classified as persons with special healthcare needs, but not any state of limited health abilities gives an opportunity to get the disability with its privileges. The Declaration on the Rights of Disabled Persons, adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on 9 December 1975, provides the following interpretation of the notion “disabled”: “The term “disabled” means any person who cannot provide all or part of the needs for normal personal and/or social life on his or her own due to lack of, whether congenital or not, his or her physical or mental abilities” (Declaration on the Rights of Disabled Persons, 2019). Persons with special healthcare needs are people who have physical and/or mental development deficiencies, have significant deviations from normal mental and physical development, caused by serious congenital or acquired defects, and therefore need special education and training conditions. Thus, if children with disabilities are limited in their normal life activities, are incapable of living, moving, training independently, children with special healthcare needs have such health deficiencies, because of which their education should take place in special conditions. Incapacitation is a process of increasing the proportion of people with disabilities in the population due to the spread of disabling pathologies and external factors leading to the disability. Incapacitation is always accompanied by a decrease in the health potential of the population (Natsun, 2019).

LITERATURE REVIEW

Among the researches devoted to the disability, it is possible to single out several thematic areas. The first covers the study of the dynamics of population incapacitation and the structure of the disability, forecasting their indicators. The second direction is closely related to the previous one and includes the works on the causes and factors determining the disability structure and dynamics (Vasin S.A., 2017; Vasin, 2017; Pagán-Rodráguez, 2015). The third area of work is aimed at assessing the socio-economic consequences of population incapacitation. There is a direction of works on the socio-economic position of people with disabilities, being narrower in its subject (Natsunm 2019). This discussed issues of education, employment of the disabled persons (PagánRodráguez R.), creation of an accessible environment (Vasin, 2017, Migranova, 2015). Incapacitation helps to consider the statistical indicators of unhealthy children and adolescents, and currently, its level among this category of the population continues to increase steadily. Severe health disorders of children cause the complex of serious social, economic, moral, and psychological problems, both for the child himself and his family (Denner, 2016). The statistics of disorders in human development takes into account: causes and types of disorders, as well as possible consequences. The causes of developmental disorders may be chronic or congenital diseases, injuries, environmental conditions in the region. Types of health disorders

N.L. Egorova, V.A. Dubovskaya, S.A. Musikhina, L.C. Dmitriyevskikh

mean any physical or mental diseases (Egorova, 2020).

METHODS

To identify the trends of the disability prevalence in Russia and in the Kurgan region, the teachers of the defectology department of FSBEI HE “Kurgan state university” have collected the information database for which has become the data of the Russian official statistics for 2017-2019: Federal state information system “Federal register of disabled people, Federal State Statistics Service" and Department of Federal State Statistics Service in the Sverdlovsk and Kurgan region. In this study, analysis, and grouping of the information, the method of generalizing indicators, the sampling method, and the method of statistical groupings have been used.

RESULTS

According to the official figures of the Federal State Statistics Service (Federal Service of State Statistics: official site, 2019) dated 01.01.2019, using the method of statistical groupings, it has been revealed that the population of the Russian Federation comprises 146793744 people, in comparison to 01.01.2018 the population has decreased by 0.06%, and in comparison to the data of 01.01.2017 the decrease is by 0.01% (Table 1). The number of children under 18 years of age has increased by 2 % and comprises 32889 thousand people for three years. In terms of the population in Russia, the Kurgan region occupies the 49th place out of 85 constituent entities of the Russian Federation. According to the official figures of the Department of Federal State Statistics Service of the Kurgan region (KS, 2019) as of 01.01.2019 the population was 834666 people, the decrease in many people in comparison with data as of 01.01.2018 was 1.29%, and in comparison with the number as of 01.01.2017 - 2.28%. The number of children in the Kurgan region decreased by 0.36% for three years, but the ratio of this indicator compared to the total population in 2019 is higher than in 2017-2018 and is 23.17%. Table 1: Population, including children under 18 years of age in the Russian Federation and the Kurgan region Year

January 1, 2019 January 1, 2018 January 1, 2017

Population, persons. 146793744

Russian Federation Children under 18 years of age, thousand people 32889

Share, % 22.4

Population, persons. 834666

Kurgan region Children under 18 years of age, thousand people 193.4

Share, % 23.17

146880432

32634

22.22

845537

194.6

23.01

146804372

32238

21.95

854109

194.1

22.72

According to the statistics of the Federal State Information System, the number of disabled persons and disabled children in Russia is increasing (Federal Register of the Disability rate: official site, 2019). The analysis of the data in Table 2 indicates the trends in the Russian Federation and the Kurgan region, in particular, towards the increase in the number of disabled persons and disabled children and towards the increase in the incapacitation percentage. *Corresponding author (N. L. Egorova). Email: natacha10022010@mail.ru ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9J http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9J.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.172

Table 2: Statistics on the total number of disabled persons and children disability in Russia and the Kurgan region Russian Federation

Kurgan region

Total number of disabled people

% of incapacitation

Number of disabled children

% of incapacitation

11279992

9.65

676441

2,26

73103

January 1, 2019 11277668

9.65

670086

2,24

January 1, 2018 11460266

9.80

651122

9.96

630212

Year September 1, 2019

February 1, 2017

11640876

Total number % of of disabled incapacitation people

Number of disabled children

% of incapacitation

10.99

3711

2.06

73343

11.03

3607

2.00

2,17

75280

11.32

3565

1.97

2,10

76043

11.44

3417

1.89

At the same time, while the number of disabled adults has been decreasing for the past three years, the number of disabled children has been increasing significantly. Thus, in the situation of the reduction of the total number of disabled persons during 2017-2019 in Russia by 3.1% and in the Kurgan region by 3.9%. The number of disabled children has increased. In Russia, the percentage of the increase in the number of disabled children is 6.8%, and in the Kurgan region, it is 7.9%. Thus, compared to the average situation in Russia, in the Kurgan region, against the background of the decrease in the total number of disabled persons (by 0.8%), there is an increase in the number of childhood disabilities (by 1.1%). Table 3: Statistics on the gender distribution of disabled persons and children disabilities in Russia and the Kurgan region

September 1, 2019 January 1, 2019 January 1, 2018 February 1, 2017

386822 381499 370182 358277

57.18 56.93 56.85 56.85

Total number of disabled people

% of incapacitation

42.89 42.57 42.23 42.01

Number of disabled people 6441757 57.11 33349 6476721 57.43 33302 6620203 57.77 34083 6750972 57.99 34318 Number of disabled children 289619 42.82 2238 288587 43.07 2152 280940 43.15 2106 271935 43.15 1996

Women Total number of disabled people

4838235 4800947 4840063 4889904

Kurgan region Men % of incapacitation

September 1, 2019 January 1, 2019 January 1, 2018 February 1, 2017

Total number of disabled people

% of incapacitation

Year

Total number of disabled people

Russian Federation Men Women

45.62 45.41 45.27 45.13

39754 40041 41197 41725

54.38 54.59 54.73 54.87

60.31 59.66 59.07 58.41

1473 1455 1459 1421

39.69 40.34 40.93 41.59

Using the method of generalizing indicators, the data for three years have been analyzed. The received statistical data are provided in Table 3. They give information on the gender distribution of the number of disabled persons in the Russian Federation and the Kurgan region, including the gender distribution of the disabled childhood population under the age of 18. Comparing the percentage of incapacitation, there is a decreasing tendency in the number of the disabled persons among the female population in the country and in the Kurgan region from 57.99% to 57.11% and from 54.87% to 54.38% respectively, which leads to the increase in the number of the disabled

N.L. Egorova, V.A. Dubovskaya, S.A. Musikhina, L.C. Dmitriyevskikh

persons among the male population. Similar changes have been identified among the number of disabled children. The number of disabled boys under 18 years of age is becoming larger and the number of girls is smaller on average by 1% nationwide. For three years in the Kurgan region, the number of disabled boys has increased by 242 persons, which corresponds to 60.31% of incapacitation; the number of girls has increased by 52 persons which comprise 39.69% of incapacitation. The comparative analysis of the prevalence of the disability rate in all age groups in the Kurgan region and other constituent entities of the Russian Federation in the period of 2017-2019 has been carried out based on the Federal Service of State Statistics (Federal Service of State Statistics: official site, 2019) of the Federal Register of Disability (Federal Register of the Disability rate: official site, 2019). It has shown that according to the dynamics of incapacitation (incapacitation increase 10.99%), the Kurgan region occupies the 1st place among 6 regions and districts of the Ural Federal District and the 20th place among 85 constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Speaking of the incapacitation among the children, it should be noted that according to the percentage of children incapacitation as of 01.09.2019, the Kurgan region takes the 2 nd place across the Ural Federal District (incapacitation percentage increase by 2.06%). Slightly more disabled children are observed in the Sverdlovsk region (2.1% relative to the total child population in the region), and the Kurgan region takes the 26th place in the Russian Federation and shares it with the Omsk and Tomsk regions of the Siberian Federal District. In terms of the ratio of the disabled children among the total number of disabled persons, the Kurgan region ranks № 6 in the Ural Federal District and № 54 in the Russian Federation (4.83%). The study of the statistics on the state of childhood disability in specific age groups has allowed making some conclusions (Table 4). Table 4: Information on the specificity of the prevalence of childhood disability in age groups in the Russian Federation and the Kurgan region (2017-2019) Year

In total

September 1, 2019 January 1, 2019 January 1, 2018 February 1, 2017

676 441 670 086 651 122 630 212

September 1, 2019 January 1, 2019 January 1, 2018 February 1, 2017

3 711 3 607 3 565 3 417

Number of disabled children 0-3 years old 4-7 years old 8-14 years old Total % Total % Total % Russian Federation 59 439 8.79 153 724 22.73 328 186 48.52 61 790 9.22 155 490 23.20 323 360 48.26 65 044 9.99 154 391 23.71 310 990 47.76 65 914 10.46 151 778 24.08 298 087 47.30 Kurgan region 307 8.27 917 24.71 1 745 47.02 308 8.54 903 25.03 1 695 46.99 349 9.79 887 24.88 1 664 46.68 382 11.18 822 24.06 1 605 46.97

15-17 years old Total % 135 092 129 446 120 697 114 433

19.97 19.32 18.54 18.16

742 701 665 608

19.99 19.43 18.65 17.79

With the help of the methods of statistical groupings, we will try to interpret the data on the number of disabled children according to age groups. Both in Russia and the Kurgan region, the largest age groups of disabled children include the children of younger and older pre-school age (47 years old), as well as the children of primary and secondary school age (8-14 years old) with a clear prevalence of the number of the disabled children among the children from 8 to 14 years old. For 2017-2019, the number of the disabled children aged 4-7 in Russia has increased by 1.3%, in the group of children aged 8-14 the increase is by 9.2%, and in the age group of 15-17 years - by *Corresponding author (N. L. Egorova). Email: natacha10022010@mail.ru ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9J http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9J.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.172

15.3%. At the same time, in the group of early age (0-3 years) there is a marked tendency towards the decrease in the number of disabled children (9.8%.) There is a similar situation in the Kurgan region: the number of the disabled children at the age of 4-17 is increasing (4-7 years -10.4%, 8-14 years - 8%, 15-17 years - 18.1%), but the number of the disabled children at an early age has decreased by 19.6%. Below we are going to describe the situation of the prevalence of the childhood disability in specific age groups on the territory of the Ural Federal District for 2017-2019. The proportion of the children in the 0-3-year-old age group (early age) in the Kurgan region is 8.27%. According to this indicator, the Kurgan region occupies the 5th place in the Ural Federal District. In the Tyumen region, the percentage of childhood disability in this group is noted at a bit lower level. Among 85 constituent entities of the Russian Federation in terms of the same indicator, the Kurgan region occupies the 70th place. In the Kurgan region, the ratio of disabled children aged 4-7 with the total number of disabled children is 24.71%. This figure gives the Kurgan region the 4th place within the Ural Federal District. The less favorable situation in this age group is observed in the Tyumen and Chelyabinsk regions. Among the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the Kurgan region ranks â&#x201E;&#x2013; 13 according to this indicator. Among the children of the 8-14-year-age group in the Kurgan region, the percentage of disabled children is 47.02%. These figures slightly exceed the percentage of the childhood disability among the children of primary and secondary school age in the Tyumen region and the YamaloNenets Autonomous District. At the Russian level, in terms of the number of disabled children between the ages of 8 and 14, the Kurgan region ranks â&#x201E;&#x2013; 51. The number of the disabled children aged 15-17 years in the Kurgan region is 19.99% with the total number of the disabled children, which corresponds to the 2 nd place in the rating in the Ural Federal District (within the district the Sverdlovsk region has a higher number of the disabled children in this age group) and to the 46th place in the Russian Federation.

CONCLUSION

There has been a tendency towards the decrease in the population in Russia and the Kurgan region for three years, while the ratio of children under the age of 18 is increasing. In the Kurgan region and in Russia as a whole for 2017-2019, there has been an increase in the disability rate with the increase in the percentage of incapacitation among children and adults. The changes are observed in the population according to gender, the number of men is not significant but it is increasing while the number of women is decreasing both in the country as a whole and in the Kurgan region. In the gender difference, the number of male disabled people is higher than female disabled people in both cases, and the number of female disabled children, as well as their percentage increase for last three years, is lower than that male disabled children. Against the background of the decrease in the total number of disabled persons in the Russian Federation and the Kurgan region, there has been an increase in the number of childhood disabilities. The percentage of incapacitation in the total number of the disabled is decreasing, and in the group of childhood disabilities, incapacitation is increasing. Childhood disability is the most common among the school population aged 7-14.

N.L. Egorova, V.A. Dubovskaya, S.A. Musikhina, L.C. Dmitriyevskikh

6. DATA AND MATERIAL AVAILABILITY Data can be provided by contacting the corresponding author.

REFERENCES

Declaration on the Rights of Disabled Persons. http://www.un.org/ru/documents/decl_conv/declarations/disabled.shtml

(2019)

Denner, V.А., P.S. Fedyunina, О.V. Davletshina and М.V. Nabatchikova. (2016). Scientific review of the question of the childhood disability as a medical social problem. Molodoj uchenyj. 20, 7175. (in Russian) Egorova, N.L., V.А. Dubovskaya, S.А. Musikhina, and L.S. Dmitrievskikh. (2020). To the question of the prevalence of the disorders of psycho-physiological development and the provision of special help to people with special healthcare needs and disabled people. Proceedings of the International Scientific and Practical Conference “Ecological, social and economic systems: competition and cooperation models”. in print. (in Russian) Federal

official

site.

(2019).

Federal Service of State Statistics: official site. (2019) http://www.gks.ru Migranova, L.А., and Yu.S Nenakhova. (2015). The programme Accessible Environment and assessment of its implementation by the disabled. Nаrodonаselenie. 1(67), 107-122. (in Russian) Natsun, L.N. (2019). The incapacitation of the population of European countries as the indicator of effectiveness of their policy in the sphere of healthcare. Economic and social changes: facts, tendencies, forecast. 12(4), 200-219. DOI: 10.15838/esc.2019.4.64.13 Pagán-Rodráguez, R. (2015). Disability, training and job satisfaction. Social Indicators Research. 122(3), 865-885. DOI: 10.1007/s11205-014-0719-2 KS. (2019). The Kurgan region in figures: brief statistical compilation. Kurgan: Sverdlovskstat. (in Russian) Vasin S.А. (2017). Prospects of changes in the total size and age composition of adults with disability in Russia. Studies on Russian Economic Development. 28(5), 558-567. DOI: 10.1134/S1075700717050148 Egorova Natalia Leonidovna is an Associate Professor. She is a Candidate of Pedagogical Sciences. Her scientific interests relate to Education and Upbringing of Children with Special Health Abilities, including Children with Intellectual Disabilities, Visual and Hearing Impairments of Preschool and School Age.

Dubovskaya Vera Alexandrovna is an Associate Professor and Head of the Department of Defectology, Kurgan State University. She is a Candidate of Pedagogical Sciences. Her scientific interests are Speech Therapy, Linguistic Problems Of Special Pedagogy and Psychology, Speech Therapy Work on the Formation of Language Competence in Children with Speech Underdevelopment, Development of Language and Speech Activity in Ontogenesis, Pathogenetic Approach in the Correction of Speech Disorders in Children with Special Health Abilities. Musikhina Svetlana Alexandrovna is an Associate Professor. She is a Candidate of Pedagogical Sciences. Her scientific interests encompass Preparing Children with Developmental Disabilities to Learn to Read and Write, Prevention and Correction of Reading and Writing Disorders in Primary School Children with Special Health Abilities.

Dmitrievskikh Lyudmila Sergeevna is a Senior Lecturer. Her scientific interests include Speech Development of Children in Normal and Pathological Conditions, Methods for the Development of Speech of Children with Special Health Abilities.

*Corresponding author (N. L. Egorova). Email: natacha10022010@mail.ru ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9J http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9J.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.172

ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies

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DISSECTING NEW YORK TIMES AND THE HINDU PERSPECTIVE ON WAR ON TERROR 1

Shahid Minhas , Muhammad Anwar , Tasaddaq Hussain , Masroor Ahmad

Department of Communication, GIFT University, PAKISTAN. Department of Media Studies, Khushal Khan Khattak University, Karak, PAKISTAN. 3 Department of Mass Communication, International Islamic University, Islamabad, PAKISTAN. 4 Department of Mass Communication, Virtual University of Pakistan, PAKISTAN. 2

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A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 11 January 2020 Received in revised form 2 March 2020 Accepted 23 March 2020 Available online 30 March 2020

This study was based to investigate the comparative viewpoint on the War on Terror in Pakistan of Indian and American press by analyzing the content of these newspapers. The study objective was to determine how The Hindu of India and the New York Times (NY Times) of America depicted and how the War on Terror in Pakistan is significantly covered and portrayed by these selected newspapers. The Keywords: Pakistan-US relationship; study also analyzes to what extent the NY Times and The Hindu Indo-Pak relation; News followed its state's foreign policies while covering the issue. The study pointed out that NY Times gives slight coverage to Pakistan and also coverage; NY Times; The Hindu of India; other third world countries, however, as for as the War on Terror in Terrorism coverage; Pakistan is concerned it gives a considerable coverage compare to The Framing terrorism; Hindu with favorable stance and portray Pakistan as front line state in Hardliner. the War on Terror in Pakistan. This research study also finds out that when the NY Times gives coverage to other third world countries that it has no interests, it inclines to cover negative news. The results of this study will benefit the government concerned to know and formulate the policy regarding the War on Terror in Pakistan. Disciplinary: Multidisciplinary (Journalism and Mass Communication Science (Information and Media Sciences), Political Sciences (International Relations), Global Studies). 2020 INT TRANS J ENG MANAG SCI TECH.

1. INTRODUCTION Since the 9/11 incident and when Pakistan became a partner of the United States i.e. an ally in this US announced War against Terrorism as a front-line state, the country has experienced several terrorist attacks. The attacks have varied from grenade attacks to gun attacks to suicide attacks. The Pakistani media vastly covered the incidents, the aftermaths, and even at times live as they occurred. The government also launched a security campaign to smoke out the terrorists from the *Corresponding author (S. Minhas). Email: shahid.minhas@gift.edu.pk ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9K http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9K.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.173

Country. Several questions have emerged from this background: The role and significance of media an unwitting accomplice with the government and its policies, the media truly intensifying the menace of terrorism among the people by sensational reporting of War on Terror compare to alleviating their terror. The media unbiased and precise while reporting the War on Terror in Pakistan and by their plot and framing the War on Terror in Pakistan (Barrett & Shuang, 2008). Meanwhile, the study aims to investigate, the reporting stance of WoT in Pakistan, having a comparative analysis of these two country print media. The content analysis method was used to conduct this research study to investigate the qualitative and quantitative analysis of WoT in the context of Pakistan by The Hindu and New York Times (NY Times). The research study analyzed hard news of these newspapersthroughout2012 through a purposive sampling method. This study examined the frame and slant used to describe the coverage given by these three countries media to the War on Terror (WoT) in Pakistan. This research focused on two countries press perspective i.e. Indian and American newspapers, The Hindu is selected by the study from India and NY Times from America, Pakistan and America are directly associated to War on Terror, however, India as a rival of Pakistan by nature and neighbor country have a great impact on War on Terror in Pakistan and on international scenario and policies. As the Indian government always stances Pakistan is a hardliner country and propagated that militants from Pakistan attacked Indian. Thus, the coverage of the Indian newspaper is considered as necessary to investigate the press stance of Indian about WoT in Pakistan (Reese & Lewis, 2009).

2. LITERATURE REVIEW Generally, media contemplates contending that writers socially build impact among the spectators just through determination as well as lapse of segments of publishing exclusive news (Scheufele, 2000). Moreover, the idea of social constructionism has made ready for the build of framing (Anwar et al., 2020). Besides, numerous individual-level components, including a writer's close to the home source, encounters, dispositions, qualities and convictions conceivably outline content of the media outlets which can be reflected as their context (Anderson, 2017). Normally, to cover and frame terrorism-related news or framing the conflict situation always focused on insight into the past judgment, using contextual analyses, and contends unsophisticated framing of the pave the way for the war in Iraq after 9/11 that "agreed with the government of United States strategy and certainly not recognized the propriety of a totally, elective frame" (Monaghan, 1968). According to Entman (2004), framing has its importance as it is a fragmented, worldview for correspondence researchers, as it coordinates impacts from different controls. It is a communication process originated among the sender, receiver, content of media and social system of human being viewpoint. In the Mass Communication and International relations disciplines, framing means in what way persons understand, recollect, evaluate, and follow up on an issue (Abdul & Hussain, 2012). The hypothetical point of view created by Akiba, Cohen, and Wolfsfeld proposes that terrorism monger events are regularly comprehended through news "frames" that streamline, organize and structure the story stream of events. Understanding mass correspondence through the idea of framing has turned out to be progressively typical, regardless of whether in the fields of social brain science, available assessment or media ponders (Entman, 2004). For instance, the frame

S.Minhas, M.Anwar, T.Hussain, M.Ahmad

of WoT turned into the crux of mutual dissemination and accepting country Law and Order situation in the United States.

2.1 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK Two basic theories are applied and get benefits, for this study to evaluate the frame and slant analyzing the content of the selected three newspapers.

2.2 FRAMING THEORY Goffman (1995), who developed the notion of framing, described the framing as a practice of communication which proposes that how things are presented to the audiences to influence the thinking of people on how to interpret the message or piece of information. Natural and social distinctions were stated by the Goffman, which both play the role to interpret the piece of information by people. The concept of social constructionism was further elaborated by researchers under the media effects as a characteristic of media framing (Scheufele, 2000).

2.3 AGENDA SETTING THEORY McCombs and Shaw (1972) described the theory as the capability to affect the significant retained on the topics of audience agenda, while the main relationship of people general perception and world events was developed by Lippmann under the Agenda Setting Theory (Biltereyst, 1995). According to Cohen who stated that the objective fact that the world will look changed to changed people/audiences depended on the news and agenda shown or reported by the newspapers or media outlets.

3. METHODOLOGY The content analysis method is used to investigate and examine the news of the NY Times and The Hindu during 2012. This period was selected because in the year the American presidential election was held while this period also has some importance because U.S president Barak Obama was participating in the election as he was already remaining president of America in the last tenor.

3.1 SELECTION OF THE NEWSPAPERS Two leading newspapers The Hindu and NY Times were selected to investigate the issue which is leading and widely circulation newspapers of the concerned countries. Policymakers, high officials and opinion leaders are the readers of these newspapers across the globe. WoT in Pakistan is the most important issue which significantly important for two countries so how these leading newspapers covered and frame it was the main reason to select these newspapers.

3.2 METHOD OF THE STUDY The Content of the Hindu and NY Times were analyzed through content analysis method to find out the portrayal of WoT in Pakistan by the Indian and American press. According to Paisley, the process of communicating information which is coded through a systematic way of categorization rules, into figures that can be concise and related is known as Content Analysis. Researchers also define Content Analysis as a rigorous and deductive approach (Gilboa, 2002). This study investigated hard news using the content analysis method. The slant to be decoded in the terms of favorable, unfavorable and neutral while analyzing the news published in these newspapers *Corresponding author (S. Minhas). Email: shahid.minhas@gift.edu.pk ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9K http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9K.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.173

while topics will also be coded in seven categories defined as under variable section (Becker, Matthew & McManus, 2016). Cataloging the hard news was constructed on vigilant qualitative analysis instead of documentation of these variables as stated in the listed hypotheses.

3.3 VARIABLES FOR THE RESEARCH Topic, Frame, and Slant are the variables developed for this study to investigate the issue. The below categories topic is selected for the study. o

Terrorism

War on Terror

Pakistanâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Nuclear Program

Pak India Relation

Pak America Relation

Drone Attacks

Foreign Relation

Pakistanâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Politics

3.4 SLANT According to Asheim (1952) that while analyzing media content tone and topic are two diverse tactics. Topic and Slant are both inter-reliant in the content analysis approach, as per the previous studies what was reported means topic while how it was narrated direct the tone or slant of the content. 1. Positive: the story was coded positive if more paragraphs showed favorable to Pakistanâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s policy and narrative in WoT. 2. Negative: the story was coded negative if more paragraphs showed unfavorable to Pakistan in the war on terror. 3. Neutral: if the content of the news story neither positive nor negative or if there is no clear stance or either positive or negative will be noted as neutral.

3.5 FRAME Ally, Foe and Hardliner are the terms to detect the Frame, studies described this frame classification as deionization of the frame. The entire news item is investigated through textual viewpoint, to detect the frames from these notified terms (Monaghan, Richard, Budd & Lewis, 1968). 1. Ally: if Pakistan is shown as a friend in War on Terror in Pakistan 2. Foe:

if Pakistan being foe in the War on Terror in Pakistan

3. Hardliner:

Pakistan being a hardliner in War on Terror in Pakistan

3.6 CODING UNIT The coding unit defined as the definite piece of information/data/message that is categorized by enlisting it in a specified group (Holsti, 1969). A single word or a sign is usually considered as the lowest unit of analysis, so we have studied the placement of the story, slant, topic, and frame as variables and entire story as a unit of analysis. Hard news stories published were the contextual unit and topics, frame, slant; published by The Hindu and NY Times was the unit of analysis (Kent &

S.Minhas, M.Anwar, T.Hussain, M.Ahmad

Schmi, 2004).

4. DATA INTERPRETATION The following data dig out after examining the coverage of these country's newspapers NY Times and The Hindu by content analysis method. The total number of Hard News relation to War on Terror in Pakistan Coverage for the specific period of the year 2012 covered by these Newspapers was (N 79) in which 37 (46%) was published in The Hindu and 42 (53%) was published in NY Times. Which pointed out that the NY Times covered the WoT more than The Hindu, however, the slant and perspective of the NY Times observed differently than The Hindu. Table 1: Overall Coverage in 2012. New York Times 42 (53%)

The Hindu 37 (46%)

Total 79 (100%)

Table 1 elaborate NY Times give enough coverage to the WoT in Pakistan, one of the reasons of such good coverage of NY Times is that it was the year of US presidential election and Mr. Barak H. Obama also completed its first period as a president of US, he was propagating its policy regarding WoT especially War on Terror in Pakistan as it's opponent republican candidate deadly opposing his policy in the shape of war against Pakistan, while on the other hand the Hindu was not given such an adequate coverage to the war on terror in Pakistan. As described in Table 2, the American newspaper NY Times give 25 (59%) favorable coverage to War on Terror in Pakistan as it covered 42 (53%) number of stories about the issue in which 25 (59%) were favorable to the War on Terror in Pakistan and covered 5 (11%) unfavorable while 12 (28%) were neutral coverage. Table 2: Slant of the New York Times Coverage Total 42 (53%)

Favorable 25 (59%)

Unfavorable 5 (11%)

Neutral 12 (28%)

As described in the above Table 2, the slant of NY Times is favorable than unfavorable which showed that the newspapers supported the role of Pakistan and its efforts contributing in the War on Terror in Pakistan, the slant also showed that Pakistan is facing deadly opposition as also respected the struggle of the Pakistani state in War on Terror. Generally, the newspapers also gave satisfactory coverage in favorable slant to economical and livelihood loss occurred while fighting the War on Terror. The newspapers did not ignore the part as a front line ally state with US in this deadly fighting. Table 3: The Hindu Coverage Total 37 (46%)

Favorable 4 (10%)

Unfavorable 25 (67%)

Neutral 8 (21%)

Table 3 shows that the Hindu gave 25 (67%) unfavorable coverage to the WoT in Pakistan, as it covered total 37(46%) stories regarding the WoT in Pakistan in which it covered 4 (10%) was favorable to the War On Terror in Pakistan and 25 (67%) unfavorable coverage while it gave 8 (21%) neutral coverage to the issue.

*Corresponding author (S. Minhas). Email: shahid.minhas@gift.edu.pk ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9K http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9K.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.173

4.1 FRAME OF COVERAGE Table 4 illustrate the overall framing of the selected newspaper for the War on Terror. Table 4: Overall Frame of the Coverage Frame NYT Hindu N= 79

Ally 35 (92%) 03 (8%) 38

Foe 1 (12%) 7 (88%) 8

Hardliner 6 (18%) 27 (82%) 33

Table 4 shows how these three selected newspapers frame the War On Terror in Pakistan. Findings of the NY Times frame 35 (92%) Pakistan as an ally in the War on Terror and only 1 (12%) as for while 6 (18%) portrayed Pakistan as a hardliner country. Meanwhile the Indian Newspaper, The Hindu framed 3 (8%), Pakistan in the war on terror as ally and 7 (88%) as Foe while 27 (82%) as hardliner country. While Pakistani newspapers which if we generally were framed Pakistan as a friend in the WoT in Pakistan and showed as frontline fighters having faced a lot of loss in the form of economy and human lives.

4.2 COVERAGE OF TOPICS Table 5, shows deliberately the quantity of coverage given to each of the topics selected for the study, as discussed in the methodology chapter the topics were selected which will be helpful during the analyses about the slant of the story covered. The Table showed that The Hindu and NY Times gave more coverage to the topic Drone attacks in Pakistan against the militants and terrorism topic but Pak-American relations and Pak-Indian relation topics were also given more coverage. While the war on terror and Pakistan's internal politics were also got significant coverage by these three newspapers in the selected period. Table 5 Overall Topics Coverage Topics Terrorism War on terror Pakistan Nuclear Pak Indian relation Pak-US relation Drone attacks Foreign relation Pakistan politics

NYT 55 (80%) 22 (62%) 5 (62.5%) 20 (44) 34 (61.8%) 17 (35.4%) 2 (22.2%) 4 (44.4%)

Hindu 13 (20%) 11 (36%) 3 (37.5%) 30 (56%) 21 (38.1%) 31 (64.5%) 7 (77.7%) 5 (55.5%)

Total 68 33 8 50 55 48 9 9

4.3 STATISTICAL ANALYSIS After conducting the ANOVA test for the overall coverage and variable Slant and frame. As shown in the below table. Table 6: ANOVA Test Result Source of Variation Overall Coverage Slant Error Total

SS 1108.67 1684.67 2714.67 5508

df 2 2 4 8

MS 554.33 842.33 678.67

F 0.82 1.24

P-value 0.50 0.38

F crit 6.94 6.94

Table 6 shows that here the P-value is 0.50 which is higher than the 0.05, therefore for the overall reporting of the War on Terror in Pakistan given by e selected countries press and P-Value for Slant variable by the newspapers is 0.3 which also higher than the alpha value (0.05) which

S.Minhas, M.Anwar, T.Hussain, M.Ahmad

showed that we cannot reject the null hypothesis and that the difference between the mean is not statistically significant. The null hypothesis is true can be concluded here. The statistical analysis also proves that the amount of coverage given by these three newspapers has the same average.

4.4 TESTS OF HYPOTHESES & RESEARCH QUESTION RQ1: To explore the quantitative coverage of Indian and American and Indian press given the WoT in Pakistan during the study period? H 1:

It is more likely that the Hindu gave negative coverage to the War on Terror in Pakistan.

The result shows 42 (53%) was printed in NY Times and 37 (46%) was published in The Hindu. If we observed the coverage given by Indian and American press, it showed that NY Times gives more than The Hindu, as Pakistan is focused by the NY Times, however, we can’t ignore the coverage given by The Hindu which is also significant as quantitative. However, by testing hypothesis H1 the analysis showed that The Hindu gave negative coverage to War on Terror in Pakistan as its perspective was that Pakistan is a hardliner country and supported the militants' group within its country and using it against the neighbor’s country. This proves the hypothesis H1as true. RQ2: What was the slant of Indian and American press on the WoT in Pakistan? According to results the slant of the NY Times was favorable to the War on Terror in Pakistan while The Hindu gave mostly unfavorable and neutral coverage. The study shows that the hypothesis H2 is true. RQ3: To discover The Hindu portrayal of reporting War on Terror in Pakistan?

NY Times frames Pakistan as a friend but the Hindu frames Pakistan as Hardliner country. While the results show that The Hindu covered Pakistan as a terrorist country and almost published stories that Pakistan supports the terrorist groups in Pakistan and Pakistan is a country that is a haven for the terrorist groups. The Hindu also focused that Pakistan trained terrorists to attack the Indians. While the Hindu also stance that Pakistan is playing a proxy war in the region. H2:

It is more likely that the NY Times negatively cover the War on Terror in Pakistan.

The outcomes showed that the NY Times give favorable attention to the War on Terror in Pakistan and focused that Pakistan plays a vital and important role. The NY Times also stance that Pakistan faces a great loss in the term of the economy and human lives and a great victim of terrorism. So the hypothesis H2 not accepted.

5. ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION The Study noted that truly, United States media or press gives less coverage to Pakistan and other third world countries if there is no United States interest is attached which also noted by several studies however if the United States media gives coverage it covered negatively. As per statistics US mass media for the mostly depict weak nations in negative stories taking into account violations, fiascos, clashes, and disappointment of regimes while ranges comprising science, *Corresponding author (S. Minhas). Email: shahid.minhas@gift.edu.pk ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9K http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9K.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.173

expressions, and society were fundamentally underestimated. Pakistan was more frequently covered negative than positive and further regularly covered as an enemy than an ally, in general. Pakistan likewise encircled extra frequently as a fundamentalist than a progressive government. Additionally, a large portion of the news about Pakistan had US-bylines, lagged by the Pakistani and Indian bylines. When Pakistan turned into a partner of the US, the daily papers reliably underscored the part of Pakistan and Parvez Musharraf (President of Pakistan) as United Statesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; companion in the War on Terror. These newspapers specified Musharraf's push to favor the United States besides the inner political weight as a rule and the Islamic bunches specifically (Aasima & Budiman, 2014). While covering different subjects/topics (War on Terrorism, Indo-Pak relationship, Drone assaults, Internal Politics, and Foreign Relations with other countries), every one of the daily papers gave the majority of the scope to Indo-Pak relationships, trailed by WoT and Drone assaults. The Indo-Pak relations presumed the greater part of scope on the Kashmir issue and Indian judgment of terroristâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s penetration across the border. Amid the selected period, both Pakistan and India were extremely war-oriented. Though later the conclusion of unfriendly warfare, United States keeps up a great association with India; however, this did not influence inclination and casing in the scope of Pakistan in the US-media (Entman, 2004). The scope on the topic of the India and Pakistan relations was generally headed for harmony concerning India and Pakistan. By then, the US government never needed war in the middle of India and Pakistan relatively needed Pakistan to completely focus on the War on Terror and to prepare its powers on the fringe with Afghanistan to battle extremism, and so on. The daily papers tended to depict the Pakistan government as a genius Western pioneer and noticed his expectation to contradict radicalism. The 1998 armed upset that he was in charge of existed named as a violent takeover after 9/11 and was examined regarding its constructive outcomes. The Pakistani government was introduced as attractive, for a nation helpless to Islamic radicalism (Khan, 2008). The daily papers talked about his arrangement for fighting defilement, enhancing expectations for everyday comforts, and guaranteeing an honest to goodness majority rule government by organizing top-down controls in administration. The daily papers more than once underscored Pakistan government as a liberal, standard, progressive and valiant which endeavored to move nation far from radical strengths. These study results are following prior exploration of United States media scope of inviting dictatorial governments. While studying the news story and content of newspaper The Hindu that focused and covered that the U.S. is in the furnished clash; with al-Qaeda, Taliban, and related strengths, Furthermore, drone strikes meet the prerequisite of need because the objectives are of clear military esteem, that such strikes target just military destinations, and that the assaults are proportionate. It even guaranteed that the utilization of drones is insightful because it diminishes the threat to the U.S. workforce, and that it moral and just because regular people are not deliberately focused on. The Hindu documented that the U.S. is the main nation to utilize rambles consistently in strife and that different nations wonâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t take after its self-broadcasted models for drone assaults.

6. CONCLUSION The study concludes that the relationship in the United States and Pakistan seems huge change following the incident of 9/11, where the United States announced War on Terror officially and

S.Minhas, M.Anwar, T.Hussain, M.Ahmad

Pakistan became its ally in this war. The study also confirms that foreign policy influences media content and coverage also frame and slant regarding the issue and also relating to international events which Shoemaker and Rees had noted in the war on terror issues. The results of this study also endorsed the findings of several other studies related to War on Terror that media and especially the NY Times have the attitude to portrayal the countries as positive and favorable where the United States has close interests even if these countries have no democratic governments or dictatorship. This study finds that press framing of War on Terror and its portrayal depends on the United States interest in the country concerned and interest related to the issue as well as depends on the United States foreign policy while The Hindu perspective was observed as completely following the Indian government foreign policy while reporting WoT in Pakistan.

7. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIAL Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding authors

8. ACKNOWLEDGMENT The authors appreciate the financial supports from Electric Power Company. Helps from Muhammad Anwar Khan is fully acknowledged.

9. REFERENCES Aasima, S., &Budiman, A. M. (2014). Media Conformity to Foreign Policy: Coverage of War On Terror by The British Press. Journal of the Research Society of Pakistan 51 (1). Abdul, S. S., & Hussain, S. (2012). War media galore in Pakistan: A perspective on Taliban conflict." Global Media Journal: Pakistan Edition, 5 (1), 2070-2469. Anderson, C.W. (2017). Mediating the Message in 21st Century. Journal of Broadcasting & Electronic Media,, 61(1), 185-186. Anwar, M., Akbar, M.W., Khan, A. (2020). Framing terrorism related issues in Pakistani newspapers: exploring the agenda on terrorism in perspective of post-united states attacks on Afghanistan since 2009. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies, 11(2), 11A02T: 1-10 Asheim, L. (1952). Content Analysis in Communication Research. Bernard Berelson. The Library Quarterly, 22 (4), 356-357. Barrett, J., &Shuang, X. (2008). Al-Jazeera, Phoenix Satellite Television and the Return of the State: Case studies in market liberalization, public sphere and media imperialism. International Journal of Communication, 2 (2), 202-262. Becker, M, E., Matthew, S. C., & McManus, I. P. (2016). Reviving the Russian empire: The Crimean intervention through a neoclassical realist lens. European Security, 25 (1), 112-133. Biltereyst, D. (1995). Qualitative audience research and transnational media effects: a new paradigm? European Journal of Communication, 10 (2), 245-270. Entman, R. M. (2004). Projections of Power: Framing News, Public Opinion, and US Foreign Policy. Chicago, Ill: University of Chicago Press. Gilboa, E. (2002). Global communication and foreign policy. Journal of communication 52 (4), 731748. Holsti, O. R. (1969). Content Analysis for the Social Sciences and Humanities. Reading, Mass: Addison-Wesley Pub. Co. Kent, K., &Schmi, L. A. (2004). Coverage of the September 11 attacks in leading newspapers of selected countries: A content analysis. Journal of International Communication, 10 (1), 11-33. *Corresponding author (S. Minhas). Email: shahid.minhas@gift.edu.pk ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9K http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9K.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.173

Khan, A. M. (2008). The Image of Pakistan in Prestigious American Newspaper Editorials: A Test of the Media Conformity Theory. Strategic studies journal, 28(2&3), 105-128. Monaghan, R. R., Budd, R. W., Thorp, R. K., &Donohew, L. (1968). Content Analysis of Communications. Journal of Marketing Research, 5 (3), 330-333. Monaghan, R. R., Richard, W., Budd, R. K., & Lewis, D. (1968). Content Analysis of Communications. Journal of Marketing Research, 5 (3), 333. Reese, S. D., & Lewis, S. C. (2009). Framing the War on Terror: The internalization of policy in the US press. Journalism, 10 (6), 777-797. Scheufele, D.A. (2000). Agenda-setting, priming, and framing revisited: Another look at cognitive effects of political communication. Mass Communication & Society, 3 (2-3), 297-316. Shahid Minhas is a PhD Scholar at GIFT University Pakistan. He is working as Assistant Professor GIFT University, Pakistan. His research is related to News and Terrorism.

Dr. Muhammad Anwar is an Assistant Professor at Department of Media Studies, Khushal Khan Khattak University, Karak, Pakistan. His research is related to Information and Media Sciences. muhammad.anwar @ kkkuk.edu.pk

Tasaddaq Hussain is an Assistant Professor at International Islamic University (IIU), Islamabad, Pakistan. tasaddaqqureshi @ gmail.com

Masroor Ahmad is an Assistant Professor at Department of Mass Communication, VUP, Pakistan. masroor.msmc @ gmail.com

Trademarks Disclaimer: All products names including trademarksâ&#x201E;˘ or registeredÂŽ trademarks mentioned in this article are the property of their respective owners, using for identification and educational purposes only. Use of them does not imply any endorsement or affiliation.

S.Minhas, M.Anwar, T.Hussain, M.Ahmad

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A9L

MOOC-BASED FOR SCIENCE OF MEDICINE TEACHING 1,2*

Nadezhda N. Sokolaeva , Liliya A. Kripakova , 3 2 Nikolay S. Chekalkin , Maxim A. Nazarenko 1

Institute of Linguistics and Intercultural Communication, I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, RUSSIA 2 Department of Quality Management and Certification, MIREA — Russian Technological University, RUSSIA 3 Department of High Mathematics-2, MIREA — Russian Technological University, RUSSIA ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 18 December 2019 Received in revised form 25 February 2020 Accepted 02 March 2020 Available online 28 March 2020

The article describes the practice of utilizing Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) at Sechenov Medical University for teaching English. MOOCs on the platform “Future Learn” is intended for specialists, but they also can be used to improve language skills. We analyze how MOOCs affect the learning process in general, and the MOOC “Science of Medicines” being included in the training program “Translational Medicine” for pharmaceutical students, in particular. On completing the course, students were offered to fill in a questionnaire. We ask them whether it is reasonable to use MOOCs this way, to give the pros and cons as well as to assess their achievements. “Science of Medicines” is a 6-week online course designed for specialists in pharmacy, that’s why it was given to the forth-year students of pharmacy, who had got specialist training long enough to cope with the course (3 academic groups comprising 37 students). All the students completed the course on time but 43 percent had to admit that their English was not good enough and 70 percent designated the course as difficult or very difficult. The average rating of their achievements was 3.85, according to their assessment on a five-point scale.

Keywords: MOOC English course; MOOC evaluation; MOOC questionnaire; online course; Pharmacy senior students.

Disciplinary: Multidisciplinary (Education (Teaching Information Technology (MOOC), Medicine and Pharmacy).

English),

1. INTRODUCTION Translational medicine is an interdisciplinary branch of medicine supported by three main pillars: bench, bedside and community – “bench to bedside” (B2B) for short. The aim is to improve health enhancing the efficacy of biomedical discoveries and application. *Corresponding author (N.N.Sokolaeva). Email: Sokolaeva.nn@1msmu.ru ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9L http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9L.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.174

Recently, at Sechenov Medical University many new educational programs have emerged to provide professional training for successfully translating research into improved clinical outcomes, among them “Translational medicine”, “Professional Communication in Medicine”, “Professional Communication in pharmacy”, MSc Program in Biotechnology and some others. For successful communication with colleagues abroad future medical professionals have to master English and Medical English, in particular (Molchanov, 2019). Moreover, they need to keep pace with recent advances in biomedical science like bioinformatics, biotechnology, bioengineering, medical nanotechnology, pharmacogenomics pharmacogenetics, and personalized medicine. Online courses for specialists give the opportunity to solve the problem – students can learn English which is spoken by specialists on the subject of interest. (Basok, 2019) In this article we describe the practice of utilizing Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) at Sechenov Medical University.

2. MATERIALS AND METHODS Nowadays, there are a lot of MOOC platforms – edX, Coursera, Future Learn, Udemy, Openlearning, Standford Online, Yole, etc. (Shcherbinin et al., 2019). The Future Learn platform appears to be a most suitable for medical students, it provides courses on medicine, biochemistry, clinical research, bioinformatics as well as psychology and education. Future Learn is a British platform designed by the British Council in cooperation with the universities of Birmingham, Bristol, London, Manchester, Leeds, Dublin, and some others. Brief information on courses is given in Table 1.

2.1 MOOC COURSE DEVELOPMENT These online courses are integrated into the training programs for senior students, whose level of knowledge and skills on their specialty is high enough to comprehend the information given and to do tests. Although courses are intended for continuing education of specialists, they may also be successfully used to improve language skills. Our study aimed to analyze how MOOCs affect the learning process in general and the MOOC “Science of Medicines”, in particular. This course of six-week duration contains 6 Units: Week 1 – Introduction

Week 4 – Pain

Week 2 – Diabetes

Week 5 – Smoking

Week 3 – Heart disease

Week 6 – Depression

In the introduction, a general approach to drug development is given (Chemistry, Pharmaceutics, Pharmacology). The other Units are uniform in structure – they contain Introduction, Patient Summary, Physiology, Chemistry, Pharmaceutics, Pharmacology. The course is fairly informative, and what is particularly valuable, it contains videos, which show dynamic images of drug molecules, docking, and binding to their target receptors. This is an advanced approach that is used in the so-called rational computer-aided drug design (CADD). On completion of the course, students were offered to fill in a questionnaire. We ask them whether it is reasonable to use MOOCs this way – to give their pros and cons as well as to assess their achievements. (Djevello, 2018).

Nadezhda N. Sokolaeva, Liliya A. Kripakova, Nikolay S. Chekalkin, Maxim A. Nazarenko

Table 1: MOOCs on FutureLearn platform for students and specialists in medicine and pharmacy 1

МООС Food as Medicine

The Science of Medicines

Good Brain, Bad Brain: Drug Origins Nanotechnology for Health: Innovative Designs for Medical Diagnosis Biochemistry: the Molecules of Life Clinical Bioinformatics: Unlocking Genomics in Healthcare Exploring Cancer Medicines

5 6 7 8 9 10

University Monash University

Improving Healthcare Through Clinical Research Medicines Adherence: Supporting Patients with Their Treatment Exercise Prescription for the Prevention and Treatment of Disease

University of Birmingham

Duration 3 wks/4 hrs/wk 6 wks/3 hrs/wk 2 wks/ 4 hrs/wk 4 wks/3 hrs

Reference futurelearn.com/courses/fo od-as-medicine futurelearn.com/courses/th e-science-of-medicines futurelearn.com/courses/g ood-brain-bad-brain-drugs futurelearn.com/courses/n anotechnology-health

3 wks/ 3 hrs/wk 5 wks/ 2 hrs/wk 2 wks/ 2 hrs/wk 4 wks/4 hrs

futurelearn.com/courses/bi ochemistry futurelearn.com/courses/bi oinformatics futurelearn.com/courses/e xploring-cancer-medicines futurelearn.com/courses/cl inical-research futurelearn.com/courses/m edicinesadherence futurelearn.com/courses/e xercise-prescription

University of Twente UEA (University of East Anglia) The University of Manchester University of Leeds King’s College London Trinity College Dublin (The University of Dublin)

2 wks/2 hrs 2 wks/ 4 hrs

3. RESULTS “Science of Medicines” is designed for specialists in pharmacy, that is why it was given to the forth-year students of pharmacy, who had got specialist training long enough to cope with the course. (3 academic groups – 37 students). All the students completed the course on time and completion answered the questions of the questionnaire. Some questions require yes/no answers, and they are given in Table 2. Table 2: Science of Medicines course – general questions: assessments and achievements N* 1 4 5 7 8 10 13 14 15

Questions Did you manage to complete the course on time? Was there any information in the course useful/novel to you? Does your (poor) English affect your achievements? Are there any tasks you couldn’t cope with? Did you seek help from your classmates? Did the course help you to acquire new knowledge in your specialty? Do you think that it is reasonable to include MOOCs in teaching English programs? Will you use MOOCs for your self-education/continuing professional development? Do you have any critical comments on tasks/tests given? * Question number in the questionnaire.

Yes % 96 83 43 48 39 65 70 61 30

Two other interdependent qualitative assessments are given in Table 3

Table 3: Science of Medicines course: How difficult it is. The course was not difficult difficult very difficult

% 30 60 10

How often did you look up in dictionaries? hardly ever rare often

% 17 35 48

*Corresponding author (N.N.Sokolaeva). Email: Sokolaeva.nn@1msmu.ru ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9L http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9L.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.174

In Table 4, we summarized quantitative assessments of the course difficulty (on a 10-point scale, with 10 is the highest difficulty level) and rating of achievements (on a 5-point Likert scale, with 5 is the highest achievement). Table 4: Level of Difficulty versus Achievements Level of difficulty 4-5 6-7 8

% 22 61 17

Rating of achievements 5 4 3

% 17 45 38

Average rating 3.85

One more qualitative assessment we are interested in is the improvement in English according to the students’ judgment (see Table 5).

Table 5: Progress in English versus Rating of success My English improved significantly not significantly not at all

% 5 78 17

Average rating of success (in a cohort) 3.0 4.0 3.8

We asked students to rank activities by their impact/usefulness in order of priority (Table 6). It is interesting that each of students focuses on different activities.

Table 6: Rank of activities: How useful they are Activities Watching videos Doing tasks/tests Comments & discussion

Priority order (%) Group I Group II Group III 70 26 4 26 61 13 9 9 82

We also are very much interested in students’ critical comments on MOOCs in general and on the course “Science of Medicines”, in particular. These are given in Table 7. Students were allowed to mark more than one disadvantage.

Table 7: Critical comments 1 2 3 4

Disadvantages Tests are formalistic and biased No communication with a tutor/lecturer I have to pay for the Certificate I can learn correct answers from my friend

Rating % 65 52 39 17

4. DISCUSSION All the students managed to finish the course, 96% complete before the deadline, most considered the course useful (83%) and 65% said that the course helped them to acquire new specialist knowledge. Nonetheless, about half of the students (43%) had to admit that their English was not good enough and 60% designated the course as difficult or very difficult (10%), that was

Nadezhda N. Sokolaeva, Liliya A. Kripakova, Nikolay S. Chekalkin, Maxim A. Nazarenko

why 47% often looked up in dictionaries, and 39% asked their class-mates for help. However there is a suspicion that 39% is not high enough to be true, as the proportion of those who couldn’t do all the tasks themselves is 48% (by 10% higher). Only 17% could do without dictionaries, which corresponds with 17% of those who assessed their achievements at 5 points (the highest mark). Answering the question of whether their English improved 17% said “yes” (by a curious coincidence) - “curious” because these are not those who gave themselves 5 points! Paradoxically, a significant increase in English proficiency level was claimed by those who evaluated their success as limited (3 points). As to the question of whether it is reasonable to include MOOCs in teaching English programs, the negative attitude was demonstrated by those who couldn’t cope with all the tasks themselves, they don’t plan to use MOOCs for self-education either. Although among them there are some students, who think the other way round – they consider it is reasonable to use MOOCs in teaching/learning English – so this cohort divided into two. “This method is effective in case when trainees are interested in training” – a student from this cohort wrote. Critical comments can be boiled down to one thing – there are some unclear and sometimes ambiguous questions in tasks and tests, and there are no correct answers to choose (in multiple-choice tasks). Such remarks can be found in 30% of questionnaires and made by those students who had to admit that their skills in English were not up to the mark. It seems to suggest they couldn’t overcome the shortage of active vocabulary since those who evaluated their success at 5 points didn’t have such difficulties and claims (Nazarenko, 2017). Most students (80%) answered that online courses are useful and effective. As to pros, they mentioned mobility and flexibility (i.e. they can do the course any time, any place) as well as good visualization and the opportunity to listen to native speakers. Here are some citations from their questionnaires to confirm: “All the time we have learned something new and relevant to our future profession”, “We have known much about clinical trials, drug design, and drug metabolism”, “We got the opportunity to study pharmacy along with English”, “It was very interesting to listen to lectures delivered by native speakers and learn something new”. As regards to cons, the lack of feedback and alive communication is considered to be the main disadvantage of online learning as well as the lack of speaking practice.

5. CONCLUSION To address the issue of lack of feedback it is reasonable to use the so-called “blended learning” when online training and practical classes with tutors alternate. In communication with tutors and other students, it is possible to overcome the challenges they face. (Dubov, 2019) Nowadays we cooperate with the English Language Centre in Brighton, developing new joint courses “English for Doctors” and “English for Pharmacy”. We test these pilot courses, using blended learning methods in groups of students who joined the program “Professional Communication in Medicine/ Pharmacy”. On successful completion of this joint courses, students will get the CPD Certificate (Continuing Professional Development), which certifies that “the *Corresponding author (N.N.Sokolaeva). Email: Sokolaeva.nn@1msmu.ru ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9L http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9L.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.174

course gives learners the specific English skills and knowledge they need to discuss the fundamentals of pharmacy/medicine in an English-speaking environment”. It improves their outlook in competitive terms and chances to participate in international cooperation in the field of Translational Medicine.

6. DATA AND MATERIAL AVAILABILITY Data can be provided by contacting the corresponding author.

7. REFERENCES Basok B.M., Rozhanskaya A.N., Frenkel S.L. (2019) On web-applications usability testing. Russian Technological Journal.7(6):9-24. DOI:10.32362/2500-316X-2019-7-6-9-24 Djevello E.S., et al. (2018). Specifics of Management Quality Implementation to Information Systems and Products. Proceedings of the 2018 International Conference ''Quality Management, Transport and Information Security, Information Technologies'', IT and QM and IS 2018. 40-43. DOI: 10.1109/ITMQIS.2018.8524995

Dubov S.S., Linkov V.V., Karbainova M.A. (2019) Child’s Information Security in Digital Space of the Russian Federation. Russian Technological Journal. 7(4):21-30. DOI:10.32362/2500-316X2019-7-4-21-30 Molchanov K.V. (2019). The dialectic study of the English language in the light of the work "science of logic" by hegel: new dialectic cognition, dialectical programming, and the processes of thinking. Russian Technological Journal. 7(2), 74-82. DOI: 10.32362/2500-316X-2019-7-2-74-82 Nazarenko M.A., Khronusova, T.V. (2017). Big data in modern higher education. Benefits and criticism. Proceedings of the 2017 International Conference "Quality Management, Transport and Information Security, Information Technologies", IT and QM and IS 2017. 676-679. DOI: 10.1109/ITMQIS.2017.808 Shcherbinin, M.N., Kruchinin, S.V., Ivanov, A.G. (2019). MOOC and MOOC degrees: New learning paradigm and its specifics. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies, 10(19), 10A19K, 1-14. Nadezhda N. Sokolaeva is a student at Department of Quality Management and Certification in MIREA — Russian Technological University, assistant professor of the Institute of linguistics and intercultural communication of I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University. Sokolaeva is interested in Quality Management and Certification, Teaching English for Medical Purposes, Teaching English for Pharmaceutical Purposes, Online courses, MOOC Scientometric indicators ORCID ID 0000-0003-2737-6027 Liliya A. Kripakova is an Assistant Professor of the Institute of linguistics and intercultural communication of I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University. She·got·Candidate·degree·in··engineering·science Mrs·Kripakova·is·interested·in·Quility·Management·and·Certification, Teaching English for Medical Purposes, Teaching English for Pharmaceutical Purposes, Online courses, MOOC Scientometric indicators ORCID·ID:·0000-0001-9552-0401 Nikolay S. Chekalkin is Chair of the Department of High Mathematics-2 in MIREA — Russian Technological University. He got a Ph.D. in Physics and Mathematics. Dr. Chekalkin scientific interests cover High Mathematics, Statistical Analysis Teaching Mathematics in High Education.

Maxim A. Nazarenko is Chair of the Department of Quality Management and Certification in MIREA — Russian Technological University. He got a Ph.D. in physics and mathematics. Dr. Nazarenko scientific interests cover a wide range of subjects, especially in Quality Management and Standardization. Scientometric indicators. ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3452-0982; ResearcherID: A-5575-2016; Scopus Author ID: 54783073400.

Nadezhda N. Sokolaeva, Liliya A. Kripakova, Nikolay S. Chekalkin, Maxim A. Nazarenko

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A9M

TECHNOLOGICAL TOOLS FOR DATA SECURITY IN THE TREATMENT OF DATA RELIABILITY IN BIG DATA ENVIRONMENTS Luay Abdulwahid Shihab 1

Department of Basic Science, College of Nursing, University of Basrah, Basrah, IRAQ.

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 03 January 2020 Received in revised form 05 March 2020 Accepted 16 March 2020 Available online 28 March 2020

The set of new technological solutions that allow organizations to better manage their information, commonly known as "Big Data", have a growing role in all types of public and private organizations. As a Big Data problem, how data grows in volume, speed and variety can be contemplated. This is due to the great advance and use of information technologies, and the daily use that people make of them. Within the state of the art are found from various definitions of the term Big Data to existing technologies to start a project in an institution of any productive, commercial, or educational branch. This article gives an overview of the data security technology processes, defining those that lead to rising data veracity in Big Data environments. As a result of this analysis, a series of criteria was established relevant to the authenticity of the data and the use of network security measures were suggested for each of these criteria. The article also seeks to lead to further work on information security within Information Science, as it would provide a perspective on the methods available for approaching information security, leading to increasing the reliability of knowledge obtained from contexts containing significant volumes of knowledge. This work proposes adding two criteria for veracity, highlighted as a contribution of this work, in addition to the previous criteria. These are legality and privacy.

Keywords: Information security; Data authenticity; Technological security tools; Reliability of data; Information security mechanism; Big Data technologies; Data

legality; Network security measures; Veracity in Big Data; Data privacy.

1. INTRODUCTION Increasing the amount of data generated by numerous applications and day-to-day operations in society has forged the need to alter, refine and produce data management and treatment approaches and models that account for database and computer system limitations. Big Data emerges in reaction to this, a concept that incorporates multiple techniques involved with handling vast volumes of data from diverse sources and is easily generated. (Li et al 2015). *Corresponding author (L.A.Shihab). Email: Luaay.abdulwahid@uobasrah.edu.iq ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9M http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9M.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.175

The word Big Data is generally synonymous with exorbitant volumes of data. This idea must be put aside because Big Data is not only targeted at a massive scale, it rather includes both the quantity and range of data and the speed and efficiency of entry. The process has now been moved to contact, to get the most value from the information produced minute by minute (Mohanty et al., 2015). With the rise of Big Data, a new concept, Data Science has also been accommodated, in a generic way to refer to the series of techniques necessary for the treatment and manipulation of massive information from an approach of statistical and computer science. Also, the emergence of a new professional profile, the â&#x20AC;&#x153;Data Scientistâ&#x20AC;? (Aalst, 2014), the people trained in this profile should know about the business, computational tools, and statistical analysis and interpretation. Among the objectives of Information Science is to provide a means for making relevant information available to individuals, groups, and organizations involved with science and technology (Douglas, 2006). Bhadani et al. (2016) conceptualize information security as a set of measures that aims to protect and preserve information and information systems, that any information must be correct, accurate, and available to be stored, retrieved, processed, and made available safely and reliably. Oussous (2017) conceptualizes Big Dataâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s environments that have large volumes of data, and that if the processed data is not authentic, the information generated will not be reliable. In addition to the volume, other characteristics are speed, variety, veracity, value, variability, and visualization (Zikopoulos et al., 2011). To contribute to increasing the reliability of the data and information generated in the Big Data environments, this study proposes to carry out an analysis focusing on the characteristic veracity in Big Data, presenting the relations of this aspect with the technological mechanisms of information security.

1.1 INFORMATION SECURITY AND ITS MECHANISMS Information security transcends computational controls, thus allowing different approaches to be used in its conceptual defines information security as a process to protect information from misuse, whether intentional or not, carried out by people inside or outside the organization (DeCandia et al., 2007). Information security makes it possible to use the resources that support the necessary information for strategic, tactical, and operational activities in a reliable manner in an organization (Bahga and Madisetti, 2012). Feng (2014) explores data security as an expertise field devoted to securing data assets from unlawful entry, improper modification, or unavailability of information assets. Implementing an adequate range of safeguards, including rules, protocols, practices, operational structure, and device and hardware functions ensure information security. In its origins and for historical reasons, information security is generally associated with the principle of confidentiality/secrecy where security controls in a more rudimentary version were adopted to guarantee the confidentiality of critical information. Confidentiality is an important principle within information security, but others must be considered to ensure the effective protection of data and information. (Marchal et al.,2014) states that three basic principles guide the implementation of information security, including confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For critical information must be protected to prevent its destruction, temporary unavailability, tampering, or unauthorized disclosure. Manogaran (2016) also describes that the degree of availability, integrity, and confidentiality will protect information for the organization to operationalize its business and meet its objectives.

Luay A. Shihab

Hashizume et al. (2013) present two additional principles for the protection of information to be achieved, authenticity and non-repudiation - also found in the literature as irreversible. Already (Sabahi, 2011) also introduces the principle of timeliness that references to electronic documents, so that they have the same degree of reliability in the existing paper documents such as authenticity, integrity, and timeliness. For the development of this study, the six principles of information security presented by these authors are considered: • • • • • •

Confidentiality is the principle that ensures that information is accessed only by authorized entities. Integrity ensures that the information is complete and faithful, that is, that it does not change by entities not authorized by its owner. Availability deals with the principle that ensures that information is available whenever necessary. Authenticity guarantees that the entities involved in a process containing digital information are authentic, that is, if they are true, ensuring that the information comes from the advertised source. Irretractability (also called non-repudiation) refers to the guarantee that an entity does not deny the authorship of something done by it. Timeliness is the principle that guarantees the validity of digital information over time.

For each of the principles, specific technological mechanisms are adopted, which are the tools, technologies, and protocols used in the information security process. The technological mechanisms of information security to be used in the analysis are proposed. Note that digital certificates and time stamps are technologies that implement security mechanisms, however, they are addressed in this work because they are technologies consolidated in the legal scope.

1.2 TECHNOLOGICAL MECHANISMS FOR INFORMATION SECURITY •

•

• •

Cryptography: It is of fundamental importance for information security since it is the basis for several technologies and protocols used to guarantee confidentiality, integrity, authentication, and non-retractability of information. This mechanism transforms readable data into unreadable data using a code in such a way that only authorized entities and owners of it can decrypt and interpret them (LiYi et al., 2017) and the sleek and encryption systems, electronic high security because of the strong and difficult to break and therefore the confidentiality of this system depends on the secret key Encryption converts the text flowing to the explicit text of the encrypted beta - beta at the same time. (Luaay Abdulwahed Shihab et al, 2012 ) Hashing: They are mathematical calculations used in algorithms that produce the history of the information, making it possible to identify whether it has been altered. Calculation algorithms hashing are used to ensure the integrity and identify whether there were unforeseen changes. (Harfoushi, Osama & Obiedat, Ruba., 2018) Digital signature: It is the combination of hashing and encryption mechanisms, used to guarantee the authenticity, integrity, and irritability of information. (Ye et al., 2015) Access control: It deals with the limitation of access to information and must be implemented considering the “need to know” and the “need for access”. The standard recommends that access permissions be approved by the information officer. Also, the “profile” feature can be adopted to authorize not only access but also individual actions or those of a group of users (Hu, Vincent & Grance et al 2014). Backup: They are backup copies that guarantee the recovery of information in case of loss or unavailability of them in their original bases (Hu, Vincent & Grance et al 2014). Digital Certificates: They materialize the use of the digital signature and enable the use of cryptography, being issued by certifying authorities that certify that the information used in its generation is true and valid for a certain time. With the use of mathematical functions, it

*Corresponding author (L.A.Shihab). Email: Luaay.abdulwahid@uobasrah.edu.iq ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9M http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9M.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.175

•

is possible to obtain a guarantee of authenticity, irreversibility, integrity, and confidentiality (Tanwar et al., 2014). Timestamp: It guarantees the validity of digitally signed information over time. It is a seal that certifies the date and time that a document was digitally signed, ensuring that it was not tampered with in the time interval between signing and consulting the document. This mechanism adds a temporal anchor to the electronic document so that some characteristics present in physical documents, such as identification of authorship and imperceptible alteration in the document, are also present in electronic documents to avoid possible legal challenges (Jain et al, 2016)

1.3 BIG DATA The term Big Data refers to large volumes of data that have different characteristics, are heterogeneous and that originate from different sources. In a reality in which organizations are generating huge amounts of data, which requires a specific management process to guarantee its quality, Big Data solutions and practices are necessary when traditional technologies and techniques are not sufficient for execution of activities related to the management of large datasets (Tian, 2017). Another issue to be considered is the number of actors involved in the generation of data and information, since, with the advent of the internet, social networks and mobile devices, this number has increased considerably. Currently, this scenario has expanded even more with the progressive implementation of the Internet of Things, a proposal that assumes the interconnection of all “things”, generating information about events and transactions carried out and captured by them. (Ahmed et al., 2018) reinforce this observation by citing that the massive adoption of cell phones by society and a large number of existing computers and information systems, generates an avalanche of information and complements that the speed with which this data is generated and accumulated data is an important factor in defining Big Data. Kashyap et al. (2018) states that while the volume factor receives all the attention, one of the most challenging aspects of Big Data is related to the lack of structure to deal with all this data. Environments with single servers, databases structured in rows and columns, and static repositories need to be adequate to store large amounts of data, whether structured or not, being of different types and formats, thus generating an intense and continuous flow. According to Bhogal et al. (2015), there are different points of view in the literature regarding the characteristics that make up Big Data. What seems to be a consensus is that, for a data set to be considered as such, it must have at least one of these particularities? Three of them were initially identified by Doug (Matturdi et al., 2014). Some years later, other characteristics were added to the set of aspects related to Big Data and they are: veracity, value, variability and visualization, where: •

Veracity: it is related to the quality and fidelity of the data, that is, to the degree of precision and reliability that the data has;

•

Value: refers to the usefulness of the data and its importance within a given context.

•

Variability: it is the change of meaning that the data undergoes over time;

•

Visualization: refers to the effectiveness of the way data is presented.

1.4 VERACITY IN BIG DATA The characteristic veracity in Big Data environments refers to the degree of credibility of the data, and they must have significant reliability to provide value and utility to the results generated from them. In Inukollu et al. (2014) conception, data need to be evaluated for veracity, objectivity, and credibility to guarantee the production of true, objective, and credible information.

Luay A. Shihab

Zhang et al. (2016) states that it is necessary to rethink traditional repository architectures so that they are prepared to receive and process large volumes of structured and unstructured data. Unstructured data by nature brings a significant amount of inaccuracy and uncertainty, similar to data originated from social media, which are inherently inaccurate. Levels of data inaccuracy and uncertainty can vary from one database to another and decisions need to be made on the data that has the highest level of truth. Concerning the requirements to verify the veracity of the data, Claverie-Berge et al. (2012) proposes the inconsistency that refers to the divergent data on the same fact; the incompleteness that is related to the lack of essential data to reach a certain objective; the ambiguity regarding the possibility of different and mistaken interpretations of the data; the latency that is related to the time the data is collected until the moment when it generates some kind of result; and finally, the approximation models (algorithms) that consider the correlation between the data to treat them. From Rubin (2013) point of view, the theme veracity in Big Data is related to the management of uncertainties. The authors present a proposal for the reduction of uncertainties regarding the content of textual data, associating computational linguistics tools that can be used to measure three dimensions of veracity: the objectivity that is related to the particular form of writing of those who generate the information; the veracity that refers to the degree of truth in the information; and the credibility that concerns how much of the information is credible. It is possible to observe a scarcity of studies on the requirements of the veracity of the data, with different approaches to deal with the subject. Some with similar understandings and others complimentary, however, all with the same objective - obtaining greater accuracy and credibility of the data.

2. PROCEDURE The methodological procedures has a qualitative approach since it is not concerned with numerical representativeness, but with deepening the understanding of a social group, an organization, etc. As for nature, it is basic research because it aims to generate new knowledge, useful for the advancement of science. As for the objectives, it is exploratory research because it aims at a better understanding of the problems, having the purpose of promoting greater familiarity with the themes to make them more explicit and also to help in the construction of new ones. This study is classified as bibliographic research, elaborated from surveys of theoretical references already analyzed and published in written and electronic media, such as books, scientific articles, and websites. To verify the originality and possible contribution of this study to the area of Information Science, this study considers main databases of WoS, IEEE, Scopus, For the terms “Big Data” and Veracity more than 26 publications were found, for the terms “Big Data ” and “Information Security”, more than 5 publications and finally for the terms that contemplated the three subjects treated in this study, “Big Data ” and “Veracity” and “ Information Security”, the result was no publication. Therefore, given the figures presented, it is noted that studies in the Big Data area are still incipient from the perspective of veracity related to information security.

3. BIG DATA TREATMENT Currently, the techniques and technologies for the capture, rubbing, analysis, and visualization of Big Data are classified into three categories of processing tools: i) batch; ii) by flows (streaming); *Corresponding author (L.A.Shihab). Email: Luaay.abdulwahid@uobasrah.edu.iq ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9M http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9M.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.175

and iii) interactive analysis (Chen et al., 2014). These are based on the Apache Hadoop infrastructure, such as Mahout and Dryad. For streaming processing tools Storm or S4 platforms are usually used, while for interactive analysis the platforms are usually Google's Dremel and Apache Drill. Data analytics refers to any mathematical or scientific method that allows obtaining a new vision of the data or discovering patterns of that data (Dietrich, 2014). Big data and data analytics have been used to describe the relationship between data sets and data analysis techniques for applications that require terabyte or exabyte data handling and where the technology to store, manage, and analyze data is essential. The Big data analytics architecture, first, the data is acquired from various sources, internal to the same organization or external to other organizations; They are then curated (prepared) in the format of Excel, XML, CSV files, and other unstructured formats such as text files, emails, web pages, twits. Subsequently, a series of technological tools are applied to manipulate this data, and finally, data analytics is applied, in the form of queries, reports, data mining techniques, statistical techniques. The results of the analysis are presented graphically using different types of diagrams, trees, pie diagrams, lines, 3D, etc.

3.1 BIG DATA TECHNOLOGIES The listed used techniques are inexhaustive, considering growing developments. There is a wide variety of techniques and technologies to add, manipulate, analyze and visualize Big Data developed from different fields e.g. statistics, computer science, applied mathematics and economics, from flexible and multidisciplinary approachs. EU Commission (2013) produced the list of techniques, technologies, and tools, Table 1. Figure 1 shows Big Data technologies to be reviewed in this article. Table 1: Different types of Techniques, Technologies, and Big Data Visualization Tools. (after EU Commission (2013)). Techniques Technologies Visualization • • • • •

A/B Testing Association rule learning Data Mining Genetic algorithms Neural Networks

• • • • • •

Cassandra Cloud computing Extract, transform and load Hadoop SQL NoSQL

• • • • •

Tag clouds Conversation clouds Cluster graphics Historical flows Spatial information flows

Figure 1: Big Data Technologies

Luay A. Shihab

4. RESULTS Techniques: The techniques listed here are some of those used, so this list is not intended to be exhaustive, bearing in mind that developments in this area are constantly growing. • A/B testing: a control group is compared to a variety of test groups to determine what is the best procedure to achieve a particular objective. Big Data allows several tests to be carried out, ensuring large enough groups. • Association rule learning: set of techniques to discover relationships between variables in large databases • Data mining: Techniques for identifying patterns from large datasets, incorporating computational and machine learning approaches. These approaches include studying the law of association, the study of the groups, grouping, and regression. • Genetic algorithms: Technique of optimization inspired by the mechanisms of evolution (the survival of the fittest). These are commonly called "evolutionary algorithms." • Machine Learning: Related to the design and creation of algorithms that allow computers to learn empirical data-driven behaviors. NLP (Natural Language Processing), is a machine learning example. • Neural Networks: Computational models inspired by the framework of biological neural networks (e.g. cells and brain connections) to scan and refine data set patterns Technologies • Cassandra: open source database administrator for the treatment of large amounts of data in a distributed system. It is an Apache Software project. • Cloud computing: (or computing cloud) Computing model in which highly scalable computing services are delivered as a service over a network, often implemented as a distributed system. • Extract, transform, and load (ETL): Computer methods used to retrieve data from external databases, convert it and load it into a database to fulfill organizational needs. • Hadoop: Open source program framework for the management of large distributed datasets. Its architecture was inspired by Google's MapReduce and Google File System, originally built on Yahoo!, and currently operated as a project of the Apache Software Foundation. • HBase: Open, distributed and incompatible table, using Google's Big Table as a platform. It was originally developed by Powerset and is now operated as part of Hadoop by the Apache Software Foundation. • MapReduce: Google-inspired programming model for processing large databases on distributed systems. It was also implemented by Hadoop. In Fig. 3.2 the outline of a MapReduce process is presented and then, a description of each phase involved is made.

Figure 2: General diagram of the MapReduce processes *Corresponding author (L.A.Shihab). Email: Luaay.abdulwahid@uobasrah.edu.iq ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9M http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9M.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.175

•

SQL: (structured query language), a computer language designed to manage relational databases, allowing to specify different types of operations

Display The visualization tools allow to communicate, understand and improve the analysis of the results obtained from Big Data, efficiently. • Tag Cloud: or weighted text cloud, where the most frequently used words appear larger than the least frequent. • Clustergram: visualization technique used to show how members of a database are assigned to a cluster as the number of clusters increases. • History Flow: simulation methodology that maps a document's history as it is written by many contributing authors. • Spatial information flow: demonstrates how data flows spatially, that is, from one area to another, country, place, etc.

5. DISCUSSION To select the requirements related to the veracity of the data to be part of this study, an analysis of the requirements presented in the session that deals with the veracity in Big Data was carried out according to Arnaboldi (2017) and Gill (2015). The analysis considered the complementarity, similarities and equivalences existing between them. From this analysis, the requirements were compiled and selected to form the set of requirements to be worked on in this article. Table 2 presents the selection of the requirements obtained from the analysis from the literature. Table 2: Selection of veracity requirements presented in the literature. Researcher Arnaboldi (2017) Gill (2015) Wamba et al (2015)

Selected Requirements inconsistency, incompleteness, ambiguity, latency and approximation models Reliability Veracity

Excluded Requirements objectivity and credibility

This study use the full requirements proposed by Claverie-Berge (2012). The selection of the veracity requirement proposed by Rubin and Lukoianova (2014) is justified because it is understood in the presented context, it is complementary to the reliability requirement Sordi (2008). Thus, seven requirements related to the veracity of the data are presented. Based on the analyzes carried out in this work, in addition to these, it was decided to include two other requirements understood as important to meet the objectives of this study, they are: Legality: Legislation applied in in the country is important in the context of Big Data, both for access, as for the use and availability of data. This requirement was included because it is understood that the legislation relevant to each situation, applicable to the locations to which the data is being accessed, used and made available, needs to be met in order to transmit trust to Big Data users also from a legal perspective. Privacy: refers to the protection of private data, referring to its use, storage and availability. It is important to consider what data can be obtained and maintained so that adequate privacy for each type is offered and thus provide users of these environments with the confidence that private data will be treated as such, from its acquisition to its availability. It is also important to consider that data published in different media can be viewed publicly and be used to generate erroneous conclusions, as they are isolated and out of context data. However, the privacy requirement from this point of view is not the scope of this study.

Luay A. Shihab

Therefore, the requirements regarding the veracity of data in Big Data environments to be analyzed in this work totaled nine items, as defined: inconsistency, incompleteness, ambiguity, latency, approximation models, reliability, veracity, legality and privacy. The results of the analysis on each of the requirements will be presented below, the security mechanisms that can contribute to their treatment and the justifications for their proposals. The proposition of security mechanisms for the inconsistency requirement presented in Table 3, considers two aspects, the inconsistency generated in the data source (in the case of unreliable sources), where the proposed mechanism is the use of a digital certificate issued by a Public Key Infrastructure (PKI) of international accreditation in the data sources, for that its authenticity is proven. This mechanism attests that the basis is not false, as it has been certified by an authorized and recognized digital certificate regulator and the inconsistency in the storage base of the collected data, where the proposition is the adoption of mechanisms for validating the input data in the relevant fields of the system. This proposal considers the possibility of a security breach that allows inconsistent data (which does not correspond to reality) to be recorded in the systems. Table 3: The proposition of security mechanisms (Source: author). Security mechanisms

Requirement Inconsistency

Information security mechanisms for the inconsistency requirement Incompleteness

Information security mechanisms for the ambiguity requirement Information security mechanisms for the latency requirement

Ambiguity

Information security mechanisms for the approach models requirement

Approach models

Information security mechanisms for the reliability requirement Information security mechanisms for the veracity requirement Information security mechanisms for the legality requirement Information security mechanisms for the privacy requirement

Latency

Reliability Veracity Legality Privacy

Mechanisms -Digital certificate in the data sources -Validation mechanisms of input data in the relevant fields, in the storage system - Use of hashing in data traffic. - Use of hashing in data storage. - Authentication for access to the collected data base. - Adoption of the data access profile feature. - Adoption of data replication systems. - Address the ambiguity of the data, no technological mechanisms of information security were directly identified. - Digital signature. - Timestamp. - Deal with the approximation models, no directly associated information security mechanisms were identified. - Digital certificate in data sources. - The digital signature of data, at the source. - Digital certificate in data sources. - The digital signature of data, at the source. - Authentication for access to the database. - Adoption of the data access profile feature. - Traffic encryption and data storage. - Authentication for access to the database.

Table 3, the security mechanisms for the incompleteness requirement refer to the adoption of a traffic hashing mechanism that allows it to be verified whether the data received are the same extracted from the source, that is, it checks whether the data received is faithful to the originals (source). The completeness of the data must also be maintained for as long as the data remains stored. In this way, it is possible to identify the existence of changes in the data and the accesses are segmented according to the needs - with the options “read-only” of the data or “total access”. These mechanisms reduce the risk of data deletions and changes by unauthorized entities and, if they occur, that are identified. The replication of the collected data can also be adapted to promote the “backup ” of the data *Corresponding author (L.A.Shihab). Email: Luaay.abdulwahid@uobasrah.edu.iq ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9M http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9M.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.175

and guarantee its completeness, in case of storage servers unavailability. Besides, replication systems also use hashing mechanisms to ensure that data remains complete after replication and integration. It is worth mentioning that no security mechanisms were identified to deal with incompleteness when the data is generated incomplete and if there are flaws in the data collection mechanism. The mechanisms presented here aim to ensure completeness during data traffic and storage. Ambiguity refers to the imprecision of data in a way that generates different and misinterpretations. Even though these are not security mechanisms, it is suggested that consistent metadata, semantic techniques be adopted, such as the use of ontologies and data dictionaries to minimize the chances of resulting in false interpretations. The mechanisms of digital signature and time stamp can be used to contribute to the latency requirement since together they allow to verify that even the data being used after some time after its collection, they were authentic and valid when they were digitally signed in its generation (in this context generation is understood as the moment when the data was collected and stored for later analysis). It is worth mentioning that the mechanisms proposed for this requirement do not attest to the obsolescence of the data, but confirm its validity in the generation, after a while. Approximation models are applied in algorithms to treat the data and identify the correlation between them. In this case, the recommendation is that the algorithms adopt, as far as possible, the relevant security mechanisms, presented for the other requirements. The data needs to be authentic and thus be perceived by its users to be reliable. As presented in Table 3 it is proposed that the security mechanisms for the reliability requirement are, the adoption of data sources that have a digital certificate issued by PKI with international accreditation, since this mechanism certifies that the source is not false, and the use of digital signatures to guarantee authenticity and legitimacy of data at source. For the veracity requirement, the proposition is the use of a digital certificate and the digital signature in the source data. If in the reliability of the data, the perception is generated by the trust in the source that generated the data, the veracity also considers this factor, that data generated by suitable sources have a high degree of truth in its content. Therefore, the proposed mechanisms corroborate this, as they provide the authenticity and legitimacy of the data at the source. Table 3 shows the proposition of the security mechanisms for the legality requirement, where the protection of the data in its availability after the analysis was considered. These should be made available only to authorized entities considering the current legislation and according to the type of data. The suggested security mechanism is authentication with the use of a profile to access the databases, limiting only those entities authorized by law. It is worth mentioning that as important as the context presented, it is to observe the legality of the data under other aspects, such as legality in the data collection, so that it is only from open and/or authorized sources, the use of data protected by intellectual property and other controls such as digital curation to obtain a more complete treatment for this requirement, however for these cases. For data to have their privacy guaranteed, the proposal is the adoption of encryption, both in traffic and in its storage, in this way it is possible to ensure that only authorized entities that have the key to decrypt the data, have access to them. Also, the adoption of authentication to access the database. However, it is worth mentioning that the mechanisms presented do not guarantee that privacy will be respected in its entirety, as they do not ensure compliance with privacy in the

Luay A. Shihab

collection, use and availability of this data. The item must be complemented with the adoption of ethical procedures and processes for using the data by the law. Given the presented, it is understood that to ensure the veracity of data in Big Data environments, they must be consistent and complete, ambiguity, latency and approximation models need to be addressed and the data must be reliable, and factors related to their legality and privacy must be respected and maintained.

6. CONCLUSION The term Big Data is approached in the literature from different perspectives and there is no single concept in relation to it, however, the main idea can be defined as environments that involve the use of large amounts of data to make decisions more precisely. In general, seven factors characterize Big Data, however, the expectation for the use of this data is that it is based on accurate and reliable data. This condition makes the characteristic veracity in Big Data an indispensable factor to obtain value and the results are in line with expectations. The requirements for veracity and information security mechanisms were presented in this study in a broad and general way. However, Big Data environments are used for different purposes. Therefore, the applicability of these mechanisms, to a lesser or greater degree, must be assessed considering the specificities and needs of each scenario. In this study, whose objective was to contemplate an analysis of the technological mechanisms of information security that contribute to the veracity of data in Big Data environments, the factors that characterize an environment such as Big Data were presented. Emphasizing the veracity factor and studying the technological mechanisms of information security that could be related to this factor. The main requirements related to the veracity of the data were also identified and those that would be part of the analysis and that would be linked to the information security mechanisms were selected. As a contribution of this work, the suggestion of including two veracity requirements proposed by the authors of this article, in addition to the requirements identified based on the literature, is highlighted: they are legality and privacy. The mechanisms: encryption, access control, hashing, backup, data replication, digital certificate, digital signature, and time stamp can contribute to the requirements of data veracity in Big Data environments. For the ambiguity requirements and approximation models, no directly associated information security mechanisms were identified. It is recommended to address ambiguity, actions in the scope of people and processes and for approximation models, when possible and applicable, to implement the security mechanisms presented for the other veracity requirements. It is also concluded that the technological mechanisms presented in this work do not address the requirements of veracity in their entirety but can contribute to this end. For a complete solution, non-technological security mechanisms must also be considered, that is, those related to people and processes. This work does not intend to exhaust the issues related to information security mechanisms and the requirements for the veracity of data in Big Data environments. Mechanisms such as authorizations for data changes, evaluation of the methods used for data hygiene, methods used in data collection, the expertise of the data analyst and confidence in the supplier that stores the data are some of the points to be considered for a more complete treatment of the data. *Corresponding author (L.A.Shihab). Email: Luaay.abdulwahid@uobasrah.edu.iq ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9M http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9M.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.175

7. DATA AND MATERIAL AVAILABILITY Data can be provided by contacting the corresponding author.

8. REFERENCES Aalst, W. M. P. (2014). Data Scientist: The Engineer of the Future. In Enterprise Interoperability VI(7), K. Mertins, F. Bénaben, R. Poler, and J. P. Bourrières, Eds. Springer, 13-26. Ahmed, E. et al. (2018). Recent Advances and Challenges in Mobile Big Data. IEEE Communications. 56. DOI: 10.1109/MCOM.2018.1700294. Arnaboldi, M.; Busco, C.; Cuganesan, S. (2017). Accounting, accountability, social media and big data: Revolution or hype. Account. Audit. Account. J. 30, 762–776 Bahga, A., & Madisetti, V. K. (2011). Analyzing massive machine maintenance data in a computing cloud. IEEE Transactions on Parallel and Distributed Systems, 23(10), 1831-1843. Bhadani, A., Jothimani, D. (2016). Big data: Challenges, opportunities and realities, In Singh, M.K., & Kumar, D.G. (Eds.), Effective Big Data Management and Opportunities for Implementation (1-24). Bhogal, N. & Jain, S. (2017). A review on big data security and handling. 6. DeCandia, G., et al. (2007). Dynamo: amazon’s highly available key-value store. SOSP, 7, 205–220. Deka, G. C. (2013). A survey of cloud database systems. IT Professional, 16(2), 50-57. EU Commission (2013). “Big Data. Analytics & Decision Making”. Business Innovation Observatory. Feng, D. G., Zhang, M., & Li, H. (2014). Trusted Computing and Information Assurance Laboratory, Institute of Software, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Big Data Security and Privacy Protection. 37(1), 246-258. Gill, J., & Singh, S. (2015). Enormous Possibilities in Big Data: Trends and Applications. Asian Journal of Computer Science and Technology, 4(2), 23-26. Harfoushi, O., Obiedat, R. (2018). Security in Cloud Computing Using Hash Algorithm: A Neural Cloud Data Security Model. Modern Applied Science. DOI: 10.5539/mas.v12n6p143. Hashizume K. Rosado D. G. Fernández-Medina E. Fernandez E. B. (2013). An analysis of security issues for cloud computing. Journal of Internet Services and Applications, 4(1), 1–13. 10.1186/1869-0238-4-5 Hu,

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Luay A. Shihab

LiYi,Keke Gai,Longfei Qiu, Meikang Qiu, ZhaoHuid, Intelligent cryptography approach for secure distributed big data storage in cloud computing, Information Sciences, Volume 387, May 2017, Pages 103-115. Luaay Abdulwahed Shihab. (2012). Wireless LAN Security and Management, International Journal of Engineering and Advanced Technology (IJEAT), 2(1). Manogaran, G., Thota, C., & Kumar, M. V. (2016). MetaCloudDataStorage architecture for big data security in cloud computing. Procedia Computer Science, 87, 128-133. Marchal, S., Jiang, X., State, R., & Engel, T. (2014). A Big Data Architecture for Large Scale Security Monitoring. In IEEE Big Data Congress, 56-63. DOI: IEEE. 10.1109/BigData.Congress.2014.18 Matturdi, Bardi & Zhou, Xianwei & Li, Shuai & Lin, Fuhong. (2014). Big Data security and privacy: A review. China Communications. 11. DOI: 135-145. 10.1109/CC.2014.7085614. Mohanty, H., Bhuyan, P., & Chenthati, D. (Eds.). (2015). Big data: A primer. 11. Springer. Oussous, A., et al. Big Data technologies: A survey. Journal of King Saud University – Computer and Information Sciences (2017), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jksuci.2017.06.001 Rubin, V., & Lukoianova, T. (2014). Veracity roadmap: Is big data objective, truthful and credible? Advances in Classification Research Online, 24(1), 4-15. Singh, S. and N. Ahuja, “Article recommendation system based on keyword using map-reduce,”in 2015 Third International Conference on Image Information Processing (ICIIP), 2015, pp. 548-550. Sabahi, F. (2011). Virtualization-level security in cloud computing. In Communication Software and Networks, IEEE 3rd International Conference. DOI: IEEE. 10.1109/ICCSN.2011.6014716 Singh, S., & Ahuja, N. (2015). Article recommendation system based on keyword using map-reduce. In IEEE Third International Conference on Image Information Processing (ICIIP) (548-550).. Tanwar, S., Prema, V. (2014). Role of Public Key Infrastructure in Big Data Security. CSI Communications, 45-48 Tian, Y. (2017). Towards the Development of Best Data Security for Big Data. Communications and Network. 09. 291-301. DOI: 10.4236/cn.2017.94020. Wamba, S.F., Akter, S., Edwards, A., Chopin, G., Gnanzou, D. (2016). How ‘big data’ can make big impact: Findings from a systematic review and a longitudinal case study. Int. J. Prod. Econ.165, 234-246 Ye, F., Y. Qian, R.Q. Hu. (2015). An Identity-Based Security Scheme for a Big Data Driven Cloud Computing Framework in Smart Grid. 2015 IEEE Global Communications Conference (GLOBECOM), San Diego, CA, 1-6. Zhang, Yingfeng & Ren, Shan & Liu, Yang & Si, Shubin. (2016). A big data analytics architecture for cleaner manufacturing and maintenance processes of complex products. Journal of Cleaner Production. DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.07.123. Zikopoulos, P., Eaton, C., et al., 2011. Understanding Big Data: Analytics for Enterprise Class Hadoop and Streaming Data. McGraw-Hill. Luay Abdulwahid Shihab is a Lecturer at Department of Basic Medical Science, Nursing College, University of Basra, Iraq. He is a PhD student at UTM, Malaysia. He got an MSc in Computer Science (Network) from College of Skobad, Agra University, India. His research is focused on Wireless Networks, Image Processing and Communication Security.

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A9N

URBAN DESIGN ELEMENTS’ ANALYSIS OF BANDAR ENSTEK, NILAI NEGERI SEMBILAN, MALAYSIA 1

Irene Ng Wei Yong , Yasser Arab 1

, Jestin Nordin and Ahmad Sanusi Hassan

School of Housing, Building & Planning, Universiti Sains Malaysia, MALAYSIA.

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 04 July 2019 Received in revised form 23 December 2019 Accepted 07 February 2020 Available online 31 March 2020

The study discusses modern urban design elements in a superblock planning concept for housing development in Malaysia. A case study of Kuarters KLIA & Bander Enstek, Nilai is conducted on how urban design elements influence the behaviour and flow of the tenants in the studied neighbourhood. To determine the quality of urban design elements in Kuarters KLIA & Bandar Enstek, this work conducts a qualitative and quantitative survey through the inventory of the layout plan, observations and interviews with residents. The curvilinear design approach accentuates the planning. Loops and cul-de-sacs increase security and privacy, reduce car traffic, allow more green spaces and create a social-interactive neighbourhood. Public courtyards and playgrounds in every superblock promote communal interaction. The superblock concept with public courtyards is an ideal urban design method for modern housing that promotes social interaction in a neighbourhood.

Keywords: Urban Design Element; Superblock township; Modern urban design; Social-interactive neighbourhood; Loop and cul-de-sac road systems; Smokeless and slumless city, Land use; Street system path; Landmarks; Nodes; Edges; Real social interaction.

1. INTRODUCTION Malaysia has experienced spectacular urban spatial transformations from the traditional water village, British colonisation, pre- and post-independence developments, and now the fast-growing modern urban design (Hassan, 2005). The implementation of the Multimedia Super Corridor (MSC) in 1996, Malaysia’s first technological region stretching from KLCC to Kuala Lumpur International Airport (KLIA) jump-started the development of Putrajaya, Cyberjaya and Sepang (Siong, 2006). The Garden City concept (Howard & Osborn, 1965) employed by this Corridor pioneered a green complex urban township with modern facilities and technologies in Malaysia. This research focuses on two townships namely Kuarters KLIA and Bandar Enstek, which will be used as case studies. The aim was to study the Malaysian interpretation of modern urban design elements of a garden city superblock township. The main objective was to investigate the image of *Corresponding author (Y.Arab). Email: Yasserarab2005@yahoo.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9N http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9N.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.176

the city or the visual intelligibility that is shared by residents through their mental perception. This research also aims to determine the quality of the urban spaces that create a sense of safety and belonging. Lastly, this research determines the distinction of public areas that promote neighbourhood interaction.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 IMAGE OF THE CITY People structure their perception of a city into recurring elements through “mental” maps with five urban elements which are paths, nodes, edges, districts and landmarks (Lynch, 1960). These five urban elements can influence and impact a locality through interactions with each other, movability in a place and usability of a place. In Kevin Lynch’s book “The Image of the City”, he defines a legible city as characterised by a visual quality of clear space which allows its parts to be recognised and organised into coherent patterns. This environmental, mental image represents the strategic link. This image is formed through two factors: immediate sensation and memory of previous experiences. One becomes free from the fear of disorientation, leading to a strong sense of home that is not only familiar but also distinctive. The elements mentioned above form the building blocks of the operation of differentiating structures on an urban level. This helps to provoke the image of the surroundings and makes its visual identification easier. These five elements can be divided into two groups which are movement facilitators and movement inhibitors. Paths, nodes and districts facilitate the movement of people, whereas edges and landmarks can be viewed but cannot be entered (Tomko & Winter, 2013). Paths are the channels along which observers occasionally or potentially move, and they act as the predominant connectors for people to travel between two places, typified by roads, walkways, railroads and streets. Paths are represented as one-dimensional linked segments or, after integration with other paths, as networked configurations. Human travel takes place either freely in an unstructured natural environment or artificial ways (Golledge, 1999). People observe the city while moving through it and experience other environmental elements that are arranged and related along these paths. Nodes can be defined as foci of strategic nature through which one can penetrate. It may range from small points in a city to a large square or a park. Special attention should be given to squares as they form, with paths, the main components for any urban fabric. Nodes bring social, environmental, health and economic benefits to a compact community. Boundaries or barriers between two phases are called edges. Edges are continuous, linear breaks that are not considered paths, and they separate one region from another, exemplified by shores, railroad cuts and walls. Edges act as lateral references. Districts are medium to large sections of the city that contain zones for different land uses, building forms, and mass. Landmarks are physical structures, buildings, or geographical features that can be used as a point of reference by the individual to navigate the built environment. It is a simple external reference to the individual. When a person is not very familiar with a city, they depend on landmarks as a guide. Some people rely only on landmarks to read the space and identify the position of adjacent spaces (Ornstein, 1992). This dependence on landmarks tends to single out an

Irene Ng Wei Yong, Yasser Arab, Jestin Nordin, A.Sanusi Hassan

element from other possibilities. Cognitive mapping, beginning with landmarks elements that inform landmark knowledge, precedes route knowledge, and both precede configurational knowledge in environmental development (Siegel & White, 1975). What makes a landmark memorable is its uniqueness, clarity, significance, distinctive location and its contrast to the background (Amin, 2002).

2.2 NEIGHBOURHOOD UNIT Clarence Perry in his book “The Neighbourhood Unit” (1929) explained Ebenezer Howard’s Garden City concept with further justifications. He suggested the ideal locations of elementary school sites, small scale parks and playgrounds, commercial areas like shops that could serve dayto-day needs, and a residential environment. This self-contained residential neighbourhood revolves around several physical design principles. Firstly, the essential requirement of the elementary school in the centre of the neighbourhood and its actual size depends on the density of the population. Secondly, arterial streets should surround the unit, allowing a sufficient width to facilitate by-passing traffic. Thirdly, small parks and recreational areas should be provided according to neighbourhood needs. Fourthly, one or more commercial districts like shops should be laid out in the circumference of the unit, preferably at traffic junctions and adjacent to similar districts of adjoining neighbourhoods. Lastly, the internal street system should be distinguished from arterial streets through curvilinear patterns for safety and aesthetic purposes to enhance the safety of pedestrians.

2.3 SUPERBLOCK Stein in his book “Toward New Towns for America” in 1951 expanded the idea of Garden City and Neighbourhood Unit by converting boring and stale urban subsection to an exciting superblock concept which introduces large courtyard and separate vehicles and pedestrian via a vast greens area. From his early work of Sunnyside Gardens to his most significant work Radburn in New Jersey, Stein introduced large residential superblock and pioneered the use of cul-de-sacs road system. Radburn design is represented by the superblocks facing common green yards and promote less car-oriented township.

3. METHODOLOGY This research documents the urban design elements of the case studies based on Kevin Lynch’s five urban design elements to structure the perception and mental mapping of these townships. Therefore, this study employs several qualitative methods to obtain data. First, an inventory of the layout plan and field observation of both Kuarters KLIA and Bandar Enstek were conducted. The site inventory was made in person. There is a belief that the perception of a city is not just observed; it is felt with the body (Lefebvre, 1991). The on-site observation was conducted at three different times which are: Sunday evening (5-7 pm) when residents would have more social interactions at the park and playground, during peak hours (6.30-8 am) for workers and students going to work and school in the morning, and during non-peak hours (2-4.30pm). The site inventory evaluated site features, circulation, sensory input, zoning, activities and behaviours of people, and urban and architecture styles. A photographic study enhanced the observations via onsite photography. Second, a literature review of secondary printed sources such as books, journals, and articles *Corresponding author (Y.Arab). Email: Yasserarab2005@yahoo.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9N http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9N.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.176

was conducted to gain a background understanding of urban design elements. Others than that, qualitative data collected via non-structured interviews will be analysed and documented. Random face-to-face, non-structured interview was conducted on-site. The interviews provided a more indepth understanding of the perception of residents towards their neighbourhood unit. They were conducted informally with the residents at random in conjunction with the site inventory.

Figure 1: The key plan of Kuarters KLIA & Bandar Enstek. (Courtesy of Google Earth).

4. KUARTERS KLIA AND BANDAR ENSTEK The implementation of MSC and the decision to build Kuala Lumpur International Airport (KLIA) in 1998 stimulated rapid development in the surrounding areas such as Nilai, Sepang, Salak Tinggi, Banting and Cyberjaya. New developments sprang up such as housing schemes, schools, universities, and other facilities including the Sepang International Circuit. Kuarters KLIA and Bandar Enstek are two of the earlier housing schemes developed to facilitate the needs of rapid population growth in the area. It is surrounded by three cities, namely Nilai, Sepang, and Seremban (Figure 1).

Figure 2: The location plan of Kuarters KLIA and Bandar Enstek. (Courtesy of Google Earth).

Irene Ng Wei Yong, Yasser Arab, Jestin Nordin, A.Sanusi Hassan

Kuarters KLIA and Bandar Enstek are located in the district of Nilai, at the border of Negeri Sembilan and Selangor, constructed over former oil palm plantations and small villages. The strategic location, approximately 10km away from KLIA and 28km from Putrajaya, makes them the prime housing location for KLIA employees or civil servants in Putrajaya. It is located between Nilai and Sepang via Jalan Dengkil-Sepang North, accessible by Jalan Felda LBJ from Seremban, Elite and PLUS highways, and sites 5km from the nearest landmark, the Sepang International Circuit via Jalan Kuarters KLIA (Figure 2).

Figure 3: Kuarters KLIA and Bandar Enstek Site Plan. (Courtesy Google Earth) Kuarters KLIA was constructed in 1998 by the Prime Minister’s Department to provide accommodations for KLIA employees and their families. A direct highway from the Sepang International Circuit is the main access route into this township, followed by a secondary road from Nilai (Figure 3). Kuarters KLIA township includes 18 superblock apartments called “Kelompok” (the Malay word for “group”), primary and secondary schools, recreational parks, sports complexes, mosques, kindergartens, clinics, and shops.

Figure 4: Bandar Enstek Master Plan (Courtesy of TH Properties Sdn Bhd). *Corresponding author (Y.Arab). Email: Yasserarab2005@yahoo.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9N http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9N.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.176

Another township next to Kuarters KLIA is Bandar Enstek. TH Properties Sdn Bhd wholly developed it under the subsidy of Lembaga Tabung Haji. Spanning 5,119 acres, the township was first launched in 2000 comprising residential, commercial, institutional and industrial properties (Figure 4). For this research, the case study includes the first phase of the Bandar Enstek residential development that comprise Persada (the Malay word for “arena”) Ikhlas, Persada Damai, Persada Jaya, Persada Kasih, Persada Aman, and later development, Cenderawasih, built in 2006.

5. ANALYSIS OF CASE STUDIES 5.1 LAND USE The land use of Kuarters KLIA and Bandar Enstek can be classified into four types, namely residential, public facilities, commercial, and public open areas (Figure 5). As afore-mentioned, the Kuarters KLIA and Bandar Enstek housing schemes were constructed to tackle the population growth of Nilai and Sepang. Therefore, 53% of the area was taken up by residential development, with 47% green space. The ratio of the residential area to green space is almost 1:1, reflecting the aspects of ecological planning of the Garden City concept. The vast open space aims to create a neighbourhood that combines the best of city and country living in a smokeless and slumless city (Howard & Osborn, 1965).

Figure 5: Districts Zoning of Kuarters KLIA and Bandar Enstek. Schools and public recreational facilities are arranged in proximity to open spaces, while shops are located around the borders, junctions, and arranged at places with easy access. This planning follows the guideline “Hierarchy of Recreational Areas” adopted by the Department of Town and Country Planning of Peninsular Malaysia (JPBD). This guideline advises seven steps for open space town planning, neighbourhood parks, playgrounds and sports facilities, in hierarchical planning.

5.2 STREET SYSTEM PATH The road network in Kuarters KLIA and Bandar Enstek consists of a group of main roads (100’), secondary roads (66’), local roads (40’) and back lanes (20’). The road pattern for each group of roads is predominantly curvilinear and loopy. The main road, Persiaran Milenia 2,

Irene Ng Wei Yong, Yasser Arab, Jestin Nordin, A.Sanusi Hassan

stretching from North Kuarters KLIA to the south-east of Bandar Enstek is curvilinear. The curvilinear pattern continues throughout all secondary roads of the township (Figure 6). Ease of orientation of curvilinear pattern can alter perceptions of direction but guide movements more directly and intuitively between origins and destinations (Limited, 2010). Besides, curvilinear road creates a more prominent effect to the township in overall. The circular road pattern in the public amenities zone was introduced to help with traffic circulation in the complex planning. Further, in the early stage of Bandar Enstek’s residential area, the loop and cul-de-sac road systems created a traffic-free precinct and decrease the volume and speed of vehicles. Loops create a non-directional pattern of streets that tend to loop back on themselves. Both loops and cul-de-sacs allow children to play in the front yard, playfields, and streets without being endangered by fast-moving traffic (Limited, 2010) which creates a sense of safety and belonging to the urbanites. Access was possible only through one entrance for security purposes. However, the inner-ring and linear grid road patterns were dominant in the more recent development, as can be seen in Cenderawasih.

Figure 6. The hierarchy of road system The roads’ hierarchy represent one important factor that form the mental image of the township and a special feature characterises each road. Its recreational and commercial activities characterise the main road. The decorative water feature served as a welcome signboard of Bandar Enstek (Figure 7), and the massive roundabout near the KLIA Kuarters Mosque highlights its distinctiveness.

Figure 7: Various visual identity in the main roads along Recreation Park (left), Commercial Activities (middle) and Bandar Enstek Welcome Sign (right). (Courtesy of Google Streets) *Corresponding author (Y.Arab). Email: Yasserarab2005@yahoo.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9N http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9N.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.176

On the other hand, the secondary and local roads lack this distinguished visual characteristic. Since it is a residential area, this creates a group of fenced, repeated, similar spaces which harms directional and geographical clarity when navigating within the zone (Figure 8).

Figure 8: Visual similarity of the secondary and local roads at Kelompok Kuarters KLIA (Left), Persada Ikhlas (Middle) and Cenderawasih (Right). Source: Google Streets

5.3 LANDMARKS The mosque built in Kuarters KLIA area is a distinctive visual landmarks. Its strategic location on higher land acts as the first landmark for individuals coming from the Sepang International Circuit (Figure 9). Its monumental building scale with its special blue dome makes it the most remarkable landmark in this township. Besides, other landmarks such as Village@Enstek and Zemark (the commercial centres) are usually used by the residents (Figure 10).

Figure 9. Landmarks

Figure 10. Special blue dome of Kuartes KLIA Mosque (left) and local hypermarket as the landmark Village@Enstek (middle) and the Zemart (right).

5.4 NODES There were two types of nodes in Kuarters KLIA and Bandar Enstek (Figure 11). Firstly, the

Irene Ng Wei Yong, Yasser Arab, Jestin Nordin, A.Sanusi Hassan

public park near the main roundabout of Kuarters KLIA is distinguished by its scale and geographical characteristics. The park is a recreational space for residents. Its scale and sunken geographical character with a lake make it a remarkable park in the township (Figure 12). Unfortunately, residents do not use it as for main social gatherings or human activities due to its removed location away from the residential area; it is only reachable by vehicle.

Figure 11: A large recreation park and neighbourhood garden in every superblock.

Figure 12: Public Recreation Park. Neighbourhood gardens exist in each superblock are easily accessed by residents; thus are used as the main social gathering area and play park for the children. Evening time is the peak periods residents, use these gardens for social and human activities. Non-fenced residential neighbourhood gardens allow residents from other superblocks to access them, and this promotes interaction between superblocks. However, some gardens are not used for social gatherings or human activities but are instead used for vehicle parking (Figure 13). Some are left in bad physical conditions with no signs of regular maintenance, which creates a negative impact on the unity between inhabitants and their surrounding urban environments.

Figure 13: Neighbourhood gardens (left) as the main social place for residents (middle) but some are misused as car parks (right)

5.5 EDGES Kuarters KLIA and Bandar Enstek have distinctive clear edges formed by its significant *Corresponding author (Y.Arab). Email: Yasserarab2005@yahoo.com ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9N http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9N.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.176

topography. Palm plantations spread over most of its northern, western and eastern flanks. Electrical transmission towers form a clear boundary in the west, separating Kuarters KLIA and Bandar Enstek in Negeri Sembilan from Selangor. The southern border, Timur@Enstek, is adjacent to other residential areas (Figure 14).

Figure 14. The edge of Kuarters KLIA & Bandar Enstek

6. DISCUSSION The town planning of Kuarters KLIA and Bandar Enstek is similar to the neighbourhood unit concept (Perry, 1998), in which schools and recreational parks are located at the center of neighbourhood unit while commercial districts are laid out at traffic junctions. Consequently, each district is visually readable, which increases the legibility of the township. The different types form a clear visual image with a hierarchical arrangement. T significance of the path system in this township has been strongly affected by the size of the road in general. While the size of the road meets the requirements of the Department of Town and Country Planning (Jabatan Perancangan Bandar dan Desa) which dictates the path system hierarchy of a town. However, the lack of visual characteristics of the secondary roads and local roads can be improved by adding more landscape features. This creates uniqueness and less similarities between all secondary and local roads. As mentioned earlier, the mosque in this township is a distinctive welcome landmark for all residents and visitors from the direction of the Sepang International Circuit. This memorable and unique landmark is not only an external reference, but also a pivotal point for the whole layout. This religious landmark represents the religion of the residents in this township. One can understand the beliefs of the residents via this landmark. The concept of the neighbourhood garden playground in every superblock promotes social interaction in this neighbourhood. It plays a role in softening the environment (Wilson, 1984) and enhances the quality of life by reducing stressful life conditions. The playfield is suitable for children, adults and elderly for both its convenience and usefulness as an open public space and vistas for adjacent homes. Planting around the edges divides the playfield from the roads.

Irene Ng Wei Yong, Yasser Arab, Jestin Nordin, A.Sanusi Hassan

7. CONCLUSION This research has shown several urban design elements that are important and represent good urban environments, wayfinding and image identity of a township. Urban design is successful is not only in its usage but also when it creates the probability of encountering others (Amin, 2002). A distinctive and ordered environment helps the resident orient themselves (Sternberg, 2000). Residents and visitors are able to figure out the basic layout, land uses and orientation of the neighbourhood through its landmarks, districts zoning, nodes, edges, and road paths. A sense of security is elicited when one can relate to the surrounding urban world. Besides, the visual identity of urbanscape is clearly defined when it shows the components of the culture of the society. The unique element of town planning in this township is its religious facility. This reflects the beliefs and culture of residents. Urban design should encourage social interaction. The structure of a township should have more public life. The open space playfield in every superblock and loop housing is a good approach to promote neighbourhood interaction. The built environment was designed for all residents of the community where different kinds of people can meet. However, overlapping the functions of open space playfields in each superblock with recreational parks caused an excess of parks in one township. Public open spaces can be successfully used for different functional activities for every superblock to avoid overlapping functions such as badminton court, basketball court, futsal court, and a jogging track in each different superblock.

8. DATA AND MATERIAL AVAILABILITY This study data can be provided upon contacting the corresponding author.

9. REFERENCES Amin, M. (2002). Urban quality and designing of spaces. Paper presented at the International Planning Congress, Athens. Golledge, R. G. (1999). Wayfinding behavior: Cognitive mapping and other spatial processes: JHU press. Hassan, A. S. (2005). Konsep rekabentuk bandar di Semenanjung Malaysia: Kuala Lumpur dan bandarbandar di sekitarnya. Universiti Sains Malaysia Press, Penang. Howard, E., & Osborn, F. J. (1965). Garden cities of to-morrow (Vol. 23): MIT Press. Lefebvre, H. (1991). The production of space (Vol. 142): Oxford Blackwell. Lin, L. H., Nordin, J., Hassan, A. S., & Arab, Y. (2019). Elements of Paths, Edges, Nodes, Districts and Landmarks in Fishing Village Waterfront, George Town, Penang. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies, 10(18), 10A18E: 114. Lynch, K. (1960). The image of the city (Vol. 11): MIT Press. Ornstein, S. (1992). First impressions of the symbolic meanings connoted by reception area design. Environment and Behavior, 24(1), 85-110. Perry, C. (1998). The neighbourhood unit: Routledge. Siegel, A. W., & White, S. H. (1975). The development of spatial representations of large-scale environments. Advances in child development and behavior, 10, 9-55. *Corresponding author (Y.Arab). Email: Yasserarab2005@yahoo.com ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9N http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9N.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.176

Siong, H. C. (2006). Putrajaya-Administrative Centre Of Malaysia. Paper presented at the Planning Concept and Implementation. Sustainable Urban Development and Governance Conference. Korea.: Sung Kyun Kwan University, Seoul. Sternberg, E. (2000). An integrative theory of urban design. Journal of the American Planning Association, 66(3), 265-278. Tomko, M., & Winter, S. (2013). Describing the functional spatial structure of urban environments. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 41, 177-187. Wilson, E. O. (1984). Sociobiology (1980) and Biophilia: The Human Bond to Other Species. Harvard University Press. Irene Ng Wei Yong obtained her Master of Architecture from the School of Housing, Building, and Planning, Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM).

Dr. Yasser Arab is a Researcher in Architecture. He obtained his Bachelor of Architecture from Ittihad Private University, Aleppo, Syria. He obtained a Ph.D. in Sustainable Architecture from Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM), Penang, Malaysia. His research focused on the Environment Performance of Residential High-Rise Buildingsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; FaĂ§ade in Malaysia. He teaches Studio for first year student and involved in supervising student of Master of Architecture and Urban Design. He is a registered Architect in the Syrian Engineers Union. Dr. Jestin Nordin is a Lecturer at the School of Housing, Building and Planning, Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM), Penang, Malaysia. He has a Master of Science in Project Management degree and a Bachelor of Architecture, Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM), Penang, Malaysia. He received his Ph.D. in Architecture, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, with a focus in Architectural Disaster. His main research interests are Climate Responsive Architecture, Low Energy Ventilation Technologies and Thermal Comfort Studies in Tropical Building. Professor Dr.Ahmad Sanusi Hassan is Professor in Architecture Programme at the School of Housing, Building and Planning, Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM), Penang, Malaysia. He obtained a Bachelor and a Master of Architecture degrees from University of Houston, Texas, USA, and Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) degree focusing on Sustainable Architecture and Urban Design Development for Southeast Asia from University of Nottingham, UK. His research encompasses Urban Design, Studio Architecture, History and Theory of Architecture and Computer Aided Design (CAD)

Note: The original of this article was reviewed, accepted, and presented at the 4th International Conference-Workshop on Sustainable Architecture and Urban Design (ICWSAUD2019) conference held in Penang, Malaysia during 24-26 June 2019.

Irene Ng Wei Yong, Yasser Arab, Jestin Nordin, A.Sanusi Hassan

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A9O

INCORPORATION OF ISLAMIC ARCHITECTURAL FEATURES IN NEPALESE ARCHITECTURE Tabassum Siddiqui 1 2

1,2

Department of Architecture, Institute of Engineering, Pulchowk Campus, Kathmandu, NEPAL. Department of Architecture, Nepal Sanskrit University, NEPAL.

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 04 July 2019 Received in revised form 20 January 2020 Accepted 10 February 2020 Available online 31 March 2020

To identify the adopted Islamic architectural design elements in the religious and secular buildings of Nepal, the studied parameters are confined to mosque and temple complexes, which show the reflection and amalgamation of borrowed architectural style from neighbouring countries. Islamic design principles and elements of Mughal architecture from North India due to the migration of Muslims have been integrated into the building design in Nepal. This architectural characteristic is visible in the master plan, layout plan, roof (dome) and elevation as well as arches and window openings with window screen, niches, and geometric design patterns used in the decoration of building facades, floorings, roofs, ceilings, landscapes and water bodies. Being a land-lock between India and China, the country's architecture has evolved with an exchange of regional art, culture, and tradition.

Keywords:

Nepalese architecture; Temple architecture; Islam masjid; Islamic architectural feature; Mosque architecture.

1. INTRODUCTION Nepal is famous for natural beauty and distinctive architectural features that can be observed in religious, public and private buildings. Nepalese Architecture is commonly known as Vastukala, which is Nepali term to denote Nepalese Architecture. It plays a significant role in the cultural recognition and heritage art of Nepal mostly with an expression of the religious temples. Other buildings are palaces, monasteries, public and residential houses, water elements (Dhungey-dharas and Hitti), Pati and Powhas, which also have distinctive Nepalese architectural features. In Nepali term, Dhunge means stone and Dharas means water spouts. It refers to water spout made of stone. Hitti refers to city water reservoirs. Patis means a covered rest place’s platform with a rear wall leaving three to two sides open. Powhas is a rest house, which has a hall often with an upper storey and is usually located adjacent to a temple where pilgrims may stay for a few days. This research main objective is to display the gradual process of establishment of Islamic features and building structures blended within the built environment of Nepalese culture and *Corresponding author (Siddiqui). Email: tabassumnca@yahoo.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9O http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9O.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.177

tradition. During the Malla period, mosque architecture was established in Nepal, which is the cultural heritage of the Muslim community. The Malla Dynasty ruled Kathmandu from 1201-1779. In the first half of the 19th century, Islamic architectural features were integrated by Mughal architects in the Nepalese temple architecture. Famous buildings were Janaki Mandir in Janakpur, Kal Mochan temple in Durbar, Bhimbhatkeswora temple in Bagh Durbar and Rani Pokhari in Kathmandu.

2. ISLAM, FOLLOWER OF ISLAM AND ISLAMIC BUILDINGS OF NEPAL Islam is an Arabic word; the verbal noun originated from the trilateral root S-L-M, which relates to the concept of wholeness, submission for peace. In the context of religion, it means “voluntary submission to Almighty God (Allah)”. Muslims are the believer of Islam, who follows the teaching and beliefs written in the Holy Quran. Islam believes in justice and fairness, based on five pillars of Islam: faith, prayers, pilgrimage, fasting, and charity (zakat). Since the 15th century, Muslims have been living in Nepal. According to the 2001 census, the Muslim community consisted of 4.4% of the total population of Nepal, is the second-largest religious minority group whose ancestors migrated from different parts of South Asia, Central Asia, and Tibet. Kashmiri traders were the first Muslims who arrived in Kathmandu during the King Ratna Malla’s reign (1484-1526), followed by Afghans, Persians, and even Arabians. Many Muslims had also migrated to Nepal from northern India at the time of King Pratap Malla (1641-74) (Sharma, 2004). They were engaged in the business of carpets, shawls and woolen garments between Kashmir, Ladakh, and Lhasa. Besides trades, Muslims from Afghanistan and India were experts in manufacturing guns, cartridges and cannons while others were useful in international diplomacy because of their knowledge of Persian and Arabic language. Pratap Malla was interested in the Persian Language that he included it in his inscription at Hanuman Dhoka. Persian was also a lingua franca for correspondence with the British during colonial times. During the 16th and 17th centuries, Muslims also had trained Nepalese soldiers on how to use firearms and ammunitions. Many Persian and Arabic words were used in the local Newari language in the 16th and 17th centuries (Ardalan, 1973 & 1980). The Malla Kings were deeply influenced by Mughal culture, especially Mughal art, architecture, weaponry, attire and language. Muslims had also migrated from India due to the violence of the Indian Revolution against the British rule in India (Sepoy Mutiny) in 1857 and settled down in Tarai, a region at Southern Belt of Nepal. They had engaged in selling leather goods and working as agricultural labourers. In 1959, Tibetan Muslims migrated to Nepal when the Chinese took over Tibet. Migration of Bihari Muslims from India as well as refugees from Bangladesh in the post-1971 period also added the Muslim population in Nepal (Bista, 1985; Sharma, 1994). Nepal Civil Code 1854 (Muluki Ain 1854) categorises the migrated Muslims as ‘impure and untouchable’ (Hofer, 1979), the new legal code in 1963 has provided equal rights for all the population regardless of ethnic origins and faith. They have started to practice their religion freely only after the enactment of the new civil code in 1963. As a result, Muslims also felt like an integral part of societies. They started voluntarily practising their customs and religious activities, including the construction of many new mosques in different parts of Nepal. The recent political transformation, changing Nepal from the official Hindu state to a secular system has further liberalised development, conservation, and prosperity of Muslim cultural heritage.

Tabassum Siddiqui

2.1 ISLAMIC BUILDINGS Among religious and secular structures of the Muslim community, a mosque is the most sacred place for worship. The name of the mosque derived from the Arabic term 'masjid', defined literally as a 'place of prostration’. The art, design and construction of mosque architecture provide a way of understanding the relationship between Islam and regional culture. This small community has a cultural origin and ethnic homogeneity (Shrestha, 2014; Fadzakir, 2001). The three essential elements exist in a basic layout of a mosque- the courtyard, the ‘qibla wall’ and the roofed prayer hall. In mosque architecture, three aspects are interrelated and significant –form, meaning, and function. It has a rectangular prayer hall characterised by a qibla wall perpendicular to axis to Mecca (west). It also comprises a recessed niche in the wall (mihrab) denoting the direction of prayers, and a pulpit (minbar) from which a sermon (khutba) is delivered at congregational prayer during Friday prayer. Islamic sacred textbook is kept in the bookshelves in the prayer hall. Fountain, located on the ground floor near the main entrance is for ablution purposes. Ornamentation in the exterior and interior is fabricated with the analogous colours, geometric figures, patterns, and calligraphies of Quranic texts creating distinct sensations. The elements such as arches, domes and columns create a continuous sense of peace. Mosque illustrates a character of the prayer hall (interior space and the orientation of the prayer’s direction/qiblah), outer form (dome and minarets), the symbolic meaning of colour (green, blue, gold) and calligraphy. Mosque has become the centre of practicing Islamic culture, promoting brotherhood among Muslim communities, learning place of Islamic education, besides their sentimental attachment. Muslim structures are grouped into two characters which are religion (mosques, tombs, and mausoleums) and non-religion (forts, palaces, gateways, and garden) entities. In Kathmandu valley, one of the oldest mosques is Kashmiri Masjid located at Durbar Square, Ghanta Ghar and another one is Nepali Jami Masjid located at the junction of Baghbazar.

Figure 1: Inner View of Kashmiri Mosque 2.1.1 KASHMIRI MASJID Kashmiri masjid (Figures 1 & 2) is the first mosque in Kathmandu under the reign of King Pratap Malla (1641-1674). Siddika (1993) wrote a book ‘Muslims of Nepal’, Kashmiri masjid advocates the ‘Barelwi’ School of Thought. Barelwi is a movement following the Sunni Hanafi School of jurisprudence. Located at the northern end of Ghanta Ghar near the junction of Jamal, Kashmiri mosque is accessible from a narrow gate to street. The mosque has three complexes; the main prayer hall, the annex and Madrasa (school). The annex is a three-storied building with graceful arches facing the pond where ablutions are performed before prayer. Adjacent to the annex is the madrasa. *Corresponding author (Siddiqui). Email: tabassumnca@yahoo.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9O http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9O.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.177

2.1.2 THE TOMB WITHIN KASHMIRI MASJID PREMISES There are two tombs (Figures 3 & 4) located within the premises, one near the entrance of the mosque and the other situated on higher ground next to the madrasa. The upper tomb of Haji Mishkin Shah is accessible through a series of gates and steps that lead the visitors to the garden. Haji Mishkin Shah is the first Muslim who had arrived in Kathmandu. His tomb is under the shade of a large tree, and at the base of the tree are receptacles where incense places, lending the perfumes to the air. The grave is raised concrete mound with a border of white tile and mound is covered with velvet and flowers. The lower tomb is Khwaja Gyasuddin Shah, the nephew of Haji Mishkin Shah, and his tomb is similar to the tomb of Haji Mishkin Shah. The only difference on the premises of his tomb is two graves of his closest relatives, a reminder to the time when Muslims were buried around the mosque.

Figure 2: Exterior View of Kashmiri Mosque

Figure 3: Exterior View of the Tomb

Figure 4: Inner View of the Tomb

Figure 5: Exterior View of Nepali Jame Masjid

2.1.3 NEPALI JAME MASJID Nepali Jame Masjid (Figure 5) was built by Muslims who migrated from northern India during King Pratap Malla (1641-74). The present mosque was reconstructed in the old site in 1995, advocated the â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;Deobandiâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; School of Thought. The mosque comprises a rectangular prayer hall which consists of the qibla wall, mihrab, minbar. All the three floors together with open terraces at two levels are used for prayer areas. The three-story minaret of Jame Masjid is at the corner of the mosque. Dome, which is another element of the mosque, is not visible, covered by the floor slab. Green colour has been considered as the superior colour and has been extensively used in mosque decoration. Jame Masjid has rented its three and a half story structures for commercial uses to support the running cost of mosque and madrasa (school). Beside the Jame Market is a small enclosure of a low iron fence with shrubs and flowering plants that surround the tomb of Hazrat Begum Mahal, the wife of the Sultan of Oudh. The other tomb is Hazrat Mahal located at a corner of the busy junction of Baghbazar, making it one of the stops for those who wish to visit the tomb. Apart

Tabassum Siddiqui

from praying in the mosque, space could be used for other activities, such as reading, learning, lecturing, discussing, playing, and resting.

3. NEPALESE TEMPLE ARCHITECTURE Nepalese temples are associated with an enclosed space made out of stone, brick or wood and single or multi-tiered roof where the statue of god or goddess resides called Mandir. In the Newari language, ‘Degah’ is a word used for the temple. The plan of the temple is either square or rectangular shape. The most common temple plan is squarely based on Vastu Purusha Mandala, an integral part of Vastu Shastra which is the ancient Hindu design principles of architecture and town planning. The three-dimensional structure arises from the two-dimensional plane with the mandala as the blueprint. The mandala (Figure 6) has 9 x 9 grid patterns in which each grid and cardinal direction resides a god or goddess (Dangol, 2011). In each grid, the central space is Bhrahma sthan for God state and Brahma Pada is kept empty. Devika pada is circulation area, Manusha pada is for livable structure and Paisachi pada for extra ambulatory spaces. The inner area of the ground floor is a sanctuary and does not have internal floors in the upper levels nor stairways to reach there, and it remains empty. The element of Nepalese temple architecture is gilt pinnacle, roof, struts, cornice and strings course, windows (Ga Jhya and Pashukha Jaya), niches, Torana (archway), door and door frame, columns and plinth. Gilt pinnacle or Gajura is a crowned umbrella at the top part of the temple. Ga Jhya is a blind window specially used in temples and Pasukya Jhya is a monastic window, which has three or five openings located at the first floor. Torana is a semicircular, flat object made of wood or wood plated with metal, placed above the doorways in the temple. It has several miniature deities, animals, devotes, floral motifs carved on the background.

Figure 6: Mandala plan of 9 x9 grids.

3.1 CONSTRUCTION MATERIAL AND TECHNOLOGY The existing traditional Nepalese temple (Figure 7) was made of load-bearing brick walls enclosed with timber frame construction like wall plates, corner posts and rafters which are connected by timber pegs and lap joint. They were single or multiple levels of plinths. Timber was used as a structural material in the temple for the construction of pillars, beams, Brackets, Struts openings (door and windows, roofing). Special moulding bricks are used for decorative windows and cornice supporting the lower end of the slanting roof struts. Wall openings reflect iconic and symbolic *Corresponding author (Siddiqui). Email: tabassumnca@yahoo.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9O http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9O.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.177

aspirations more than ventilation or lighting the interior space. Most of the openings are small, with decoration and sculptural frames (Tiwari, 2009). The Nepalese architecture style is divided into two major groups: Religious (temple, monasteries, etc.) and non-religious buildings (palaces, residential, public, etc.). The temple is categorised as a roof structure, or other associated architectural details which are similar in both the horizontal plans and vertical elevations. At this roof structure, there are locations of Gavakshya, a blind window; Kuta, the sloped roof of the upper shrine; the Agam, sanctum room for tantric worship, and a bell under the Gajur, a finial crowning element of temples. They all show the unity of ritual purpose behind the geometric fabric. Earlier Islamic architectural features were initiated to public places (Bagh Darbar); monuments then to the religious structure. Mughals had introduced the domical roof structure during King Shah and Rana period during the 19th century, with a bell-shaped roof at Ghantakar temple, and the Gumbaz temple. Janaki Mandir, a temple located at Jankpur exhibits certain Mughal architectural features in layout plan and elevation treatment (Tiwari, 2009). The sloped roofs create tiered temples with a domical roof in the construction, a symbol dedicated to Siva. The temples were built on a square plan over three-terraced plinths and topped by a dominating dome. The walls had finishing with pilaster designs in light reliefs course and blind cusped arches. The domical style roof was typically used in temples enshrine the votive set up by the elite rulers of the King Rana period. Some of the prominent existing examples are Jang-Hiranya Hemnarayan Temple, Bhim Bhakteshwora temple, Bhaidegah Temple in Patan Durbar Square (Dangol, 2011).

Figure 7: Elements of Nepalese Temple Figure 8: Exterior Views Of Kal Mochan Temple 3.1.1 KAL MOCHAN TEMPLE Kal Mochan Temple (Figure 8) also known as Janga Hiranya Hemnarayan temple, located at the Kal Mochan ghat in Thapathali, earlier was a part of the Durbar Complex. It was constructed by Jang Bahadur Rana around the mid-19th century in the Mughal architectural style. The shrine in the centre has a proportioned square shape with a small domical roof. The corner turrets in the terrace on the first floor are replaced by cast Bronze sculpture of rearing Lions. The overall composition on the walls and cornice reliefs is also much simplified. 3.1.2 BHIMSEN THAPA TEMPLE Bhimsen Thapa constructed the temple of Bhim Bhakteshwora at Bagh Durbar in 1823. It is also called a Gumbaz temple as it has a domical roof. It was erected with the brick in lime Surkhi (brick

Tabassum Siddiqui

dust). Mortar is plastered with the same material. The temple stands on three-stage plinths and brick-paved court, and the sanctum (Garvagriha). It is a square room with small entrance doors in all four directions and enclosed by an internal circumambulatory (circulation area). It can be accessed by axially-placed arched openings in the outer wall. The exterior entrance doors are done elaborately in stone with the standard post and sill system and a trefoil Torana (archway) with Makara (crocodile motif symbolising Ganga holy water) and Chhepu (mythical animal figure) with motifs arching above. Fluted pilasters with floral capitals divide the outer walls of the circumambulatory into three parts as per tradition. In the lower walls is the typical Muslim cusped and engrailed arch. The cornice has a low relief painted pattern strip with standard projecting string layers of different motifs. Inner sanctum walls are raised over the first floor, and a slightly sloping terrace is formed over the space occupied by the circumambulatory below. The first-floor recess is one-fifth of the width of the outer wall below. Small miniature turrets are placed at the four corners of this unapproachable terrace. The upper wall is composed of a large projected vault with a cusped arch design on the outside that is supported on pillars, and the narrow vault frames a small window on all four sides. Corners of the upper wall are embellished with a less decorative pilaster. The top of the wall is topped by black paint on white pattern relief in plasterwork. An onion dome with a lotus leaf pattern circling its base crowns of the upper floor. The overhanging dragon (Naga) shapes snaking down and out into the four cardinal directions provide additional motifs for the gilded metal finial. 3.1.3 BHAIDEGAH TEMPLE Bhaidegah temple in Patan Durbar Square was destroyed in the 1934 earthquake. It was constructed during Malla-era Pagoda, with Shikhara style architecture on the square base made of wood, mud and indigenous roof tile. It had a three-storied pagoda architecture. To protect the Shiv Lingam, it was reconstructed after the earthquake. A Mughal dome was built on the temple plinth. Now, Baidegah temple has embedded with a design of Mughal style.

Figure 9: Exterior and Interior View of Janaki Mandir

3.1.4 JANAKI MANDIR TEMPLE Janaki Mandir temple (Figure 9) located in Janakpur, which covers an area of 4860 sqft, is one of the most prominent and finest examples of synchronistic art in Nepal. Most Mughal architectural features can be visualised both in the layout plan and building facades. Queen Vrishna Bhanu of Tikmgarh built this temple in 1910. The temple is also known as Nau Lakha Mandir as the construction cost of the temple was about nine lakhs. The massive structure is made of wood and bricks, a joint by lime mortar and plastered by brick dust and lime. There are two entry doors to enter the complex. The north-east entrance has an animal figure as a guardian. The east and north-east entrances have a tall arch opening door. *Corresponding author (Siddiqui). Email: tabassumnca@yahoo.com ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9O http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9O.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.177

The main entrance of this temple is the eastern one, while the lion door is on the north where two lion statues are standing in front of the gate. It consists of two parts: The outer part is known as Sis Mahal, and the Inner part is called Tahakhana, which has a courtyard and a temple. The main temple is located at the centre where the ancient idols of Ram and Sita are worshipped. The height of the main temple is fifty meters, and it is a three-storied structure made entirely from stones and marbles. There are sixty rooms within the temple complex. Each room is decorated with the flag of Nepal, coloured glass, engravings and paintings with beautiful lattice windows and turrets. Just in front of the main temple, there is a small fountain. The height of the entrance door is 30 meters. It has a small circumambulation and sanctum sanatorium or cella. There are numerous domes and gold plated pinnacles having carvings of different birds and animals, plants and flowers. There are also towers in the four corners of the temple and several small towers scattered in the structure. The front yard of Janaki temple is a large area of free and open spaces. In these open spaces, people can freely move. The front wing is symmetrical and has a design with a white faรงade and four towers-like-structure called turrets. Small shrines and temples have a dome roof structure located near the temple periphery. Various types of arches and struts have been used for the exterior faรงade elements. The lattice windows and parapet walls have a dome-shaped design to create a barrier space between the exterior and interiors. Also, the connecting bridge connects the central temple complex. It looks like a rose window with a frame of coloured glasses. Through the detailed analysis, we concluded that certain design elements used in Nepalese architecture are similar to Islamic architecture, as illustrated in Table 1. Table 1: Similarities of design elements between Nepalese and Islamic architecture Elements Call for prayers Layout Grid 9x9 Openings/Windows Religious places

Nepalese Architecture Bell Vastupurusha mandala Ga Jhaya Pashukya Jhya Niches Mandir

Water Elements

Pokhari, Dhunge Dhara Canals Hitti

Private Spaces

Darbar

Public Spaces

Bazar

Educational Building

Material Structure Roof Courtyard

Vidhyalay Moulded decorated bricks Iconography in relief work Religious Motifs Caring on wooden members, i.e. window and door frame, brackets, columns struts, jamb, cornice, Torana. Brick, wood, stone Trabeated Pitched Aagan

Light

Lamps (artificial)

Ornamentation

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Islamic Features Minaret Hasht-behesht Mashrabiya Dakkah Niches Mosque Fountain, Reflecting pools Watercourses, Water spouts Qanats (sloping tunnels wells) Aquifers Water Wheels (Norias) Pumps, Hydraulics Palaces Caravanseries Hammamas Souq Madrasa Muqarnas Mashrabiya Arabesque Calligraphy Geometric Pattern Brick, stone, Lime mortar Arcuated Dome Sahn iwan Natural ( windows, screens) Lamps ( Artificial)

4. CONCLUSION Nepalese architecture apart from the religious belief and structure has certain similarities with Islamic architecture. The difference is only the way of expression of ideology. When Muslims migrated to Nepal, they had introduced Islamic architectural features in the Nepalese architecture. They proposed the principle of symmetry in the building plan and facade treatment. Referring to Islamic architecture, Nepalese temples have geometric and floral motifs patterns and shapes in religious motifs in the form of iconography. To create three-dimensional optical effects, the temples have interlacing design to create the illusion of different planes, geometric patterns that enable to manipulation of two-dimensional figures. They also have incorporated arches in the design of entrance and wall pillars which are used as structural and decorative elements. Dome roof is constructed over a cubic space that inspires the symbol of heavens above the earth. The symbols used in architectural designs are either an expression of cultural or religious belief. Not only in religious buildings but once can also visualise the Islamic features in other non-religious buildings in Nepal. This integration has embedded the livelihood of people, tradition, culture, and originality.

5. GLOSSARY Muqarnas - a three-dimensional decoration of Islamic architecture. Its physical form characterised by fluidity and replication of the Honeycomb pattern. Calligraphy - Arabic quotation specially used for reference from the holly Quran and teaching of Prophet Muhammad. Dakkah - A seat in front of the windows Foliage - a frequent motif typically stylised. Ghats - a series of steps leading down to a body of water, particularly holy river or lake Gopuram - (Gopura) is a monumental entrance tower, usually ornate, at the entrance of a Hindu temple. Grandiose Forms - large domes, towering minarets, large courtyards intended to convey power. Kunda - a part of the temple for ablutions. Iwan - a rectangular hall or space usually vaulted, walled on three sides with one end entirely open. Mashrabiya - a type of outer projection window enclosed with carved wood Masqurah - an enclosure, box or wooden screen near the mihrab or the centre of the qibla wall Mihrab - a semicircular niche in the mosque that indicates the qibla (the direction of the Kaaba) Minarets - a spire or tower-like structure featuring small windows with an enclosed staircase. The primary function is to allow the muezzin to call for worship. Muqarnas - Honeycomb, used in domes, transitional zones in cornice and frieze Pendentives - a tapered structure that allows a circular base for a round or elliptical dome placed on a square or rectangular room; decorated with tiles or muqarnas (i.e. sculptural decorations) Pishaq - a Persian term for a portal projecting from the façade of a building, usually decorated with calligraphy bands, glazed tile-work and geometric designs) a rectangular frame around an arched opening, associated with an iwan. A formal gateway to the iwan is called ‘pishtaq’. Stamb - denotes a pillar or column exists at the entrance of the temple with the image of the lingam and sacred animals.

*Corresponding author (Siddiqui). Email: tabassumnca@yahoo.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9O http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9O.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.177

Tombs - (Samadhi) may or may not contain the body of the deceased, built to honour people regarded as saints. Toranas - a free-standing archway for ceremonial purposes in front of the temples, monasteries etc. Turrets - is as an architectural element used for fortification. A turret is curved, allowing those insides to view the world at nearly 360 degrees. A small, slit-like window allows those inside the turrets to see out and shoot arrows at the enemy on the ground. The walls of most turrets are curved; turrets typically don't start at the ground level but cantilever out from another upper level. A turret is simply a small, circular tower attached to a larger structure, usually on a corner or angle.

6. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIAL Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding authors.

7. REFERENCES Ardalan, N. (1980). The Visual Language of Symbolic Form: A Preliminary Study of Mosque Architecture. Architecture as Symbol and Self-Identity. Katz, J. G. (ed.). Philadelphia: Aga Khan Award for Architecture. 18-36. Ardalan, N., Bakhtiar, L. (1973). The Sense of Unity: The Sufi Tradition in Persian Architecture. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Bista, D. B. (1985). Ethnicity: its Problems and Prospects. Centre for Nepal and Asian Studies (CNAS) Report, Kathmandu, Nepal. Dangol, P. (2011). Elements of Nepalese Temple Architecture. New Delhi: Adroit Publishers. Fadzakir, A. (2001). The Muslims of Kathmandu: A Study of Religious Identity In A Hindu Kingdom. PhD Thesis, Department of Human Science, Brunel University. Hofer, A. (1979). The Caste Hierarchy and the State in Nepal, A study of the Muluki Ain of 1854. Khumbu Himal, 13(2). Innsbruck: Universitatsverlag Wagner. Sharma, S. (1994). How the Crescent Fares? Himal., 37. Sharma, S. (2004). Lived Islam in Nepal. Lived Islam in South Asia: Adaptation, Accommodation and Conflict. Imtiaz, A. and Helmut, R (eds.). London: Routledge. Shrestha, B. K., Shrestha, S. (2014). Emerging Mosque Architecture (New Architectural Vocabulary in Secular Nepal); International Journal of Architecture and Urban Development. 4(2), 5-14. Siddika, S. (1993). Muslims of Nepal. Katmandu: Gazala Siddika. Tiwari, S.R. (2009). Temple of the Nepal Valley. Kathmandu: Sthapit Press. Tabassum Siddiqui is a visiting Lecturer of Department of Architecture at several colleges in Pulchowk campus, Thapathali Campus, Himalayan College and Kantipur International College located at Katmandu, Nepal. She has a Bachelor of Architecture and Master in Interior Design from National College of Arts, Lahore Pakistan. She is pursuing a PhD degree from Nepal Sanskrit University. Her research is Islamic Architecture in the Modern context of Nepal.

Tabassum Siddiqui

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A9P

THE EPIDEMIC COVID-19 OUTBREAK AND ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN IN DEVELOPING ASIA: A REVIEW 1*

Sarfaraz Ahmed Bhutto , Saifullah Shaikh , 1 2 Muhammad Ashraf , Hussain Amar 1 2

Institute of Commerce, Shah Abdul Latif Unversity Khairpur, Sindh, PAKISTAN. Government Islamia Arts & Commerce College, Sukkur, Sindh, PAKISTAN.

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 28 February 2020 Received in revised form 21 March 2019 Accepted 26 March 2020 Available online 31 March 2020

This study has taken a review of COVID-19 outbreak on the economic slowdown in developing Asia. Wuhan, City of PRC where this outbreak raised to the whole world, made several economic challenges for PRC and developing Asian economies. It is observed in this study that economic channels like trade, travel, production and services are affected through demand shock spillover and investment decline. Additionally, this study has reported different economic uncertainties and economic scenarios like best, moderate, and worse for PRC and other developing Asian economies. A brief review has taken for pandemic like SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome), MERS (Middle-east respiratory syndrome), Ebola, Seasonal flu, and COVID19. Elliptically, the transition and spread of COVID-19 is higher than other outbreaks, however, death ratio is relatively small compared to Ebola and MERS epidemics. Moreover, this study also briefed the role of Asian Development Bank (ADB) to provide financial and nonfinancial (knowledge and partnership) assistance to PRC and other developing economies of Asia.

Keywords: Infectious COVID-19 epidemic; MERS; PRC; Coronavirus pandemic; Tourism loss; SARS; Economics recession; Developing Asia; Tourism industry shrink; Coronavirus consequences for tourism.

1. INTRODUCTION This disease is also known as novel Coronavirus, which mean a new coronavirus and medically it is termed as Covid-19. This outbreak was initially raised in December 2019 from Wuhan, a city of China or People’s Republic of China (PRC) (Chang et al. 2020; Chen et al. 2020). The medical science referred the belongingness of this virus from the same family of coronavirus that were previously caused as MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) and SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome). SARS and MERS outbreak were raised in 2003 and 2012 respectively (Althus, 2014; Brahmbhatt & Dutta, 2008). Covid-19 outbreak mortality rate was quite smaller (or *Corresponding author (S.A.Bhutto) Email: Sarfaraz_ahmed0333@yahoo.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9P http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9P.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.178

lower) and impressively estimated (ranged from 1% to 3.4%) than SARS and MERS. However, SARS outbreak contained 10% of mortality rate and MERS outbreak 34%. Table-1 Shows the infection rate (human-to-human) of covid-19 is higher than MERS and Seasonal flue, with approximated ranges around the rates of infection like Ebola and SARS Table 1: Fatality rates and Infection rates of COVID-19 and Other Epidemics Disease Fatality rate (deaths/cases) Infection rate ( per infected person ) Ebola 50% 1.5–2.5 MERS 34.30% 0.42–0.92 SARS 10% 3 COVID-19 1%–3.4% 1.5–3.5 Seasonal flu 0.05% 1.3 (Sources: Center of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), (WHO, 2003). CDC, MERS Clinical Features, (2019)

Figure 1: Total COVID-19 Cases, 20-Jan to 29-Feb, 202 Note: The discrete jump in the series in mid-February is due to the change in the diagnostic criterion applied to identify infections. (Sources: CEIC Data Company; and World Health Organization. 2020. Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation reports. http://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/ (accessed 2 March 2020)).

It is observed that cases of Covid-19 (confirmed) have been rapidly increased in PRC but now, the spread is also faster worldwide and exceeded from SARS (CDC, 2020). In the end of Feb, 2020, the nCov had infected more than 86000 among 55 economies and forecasted the spread of pandemic among 190 economies and may infect more than 1 million people if it continues with the same pace (Wu et al., 2020). In the end of February 2020, death toll of 2924 was reported among 55 economies. However, majority of this figure contained in PRC and it is expected that USA could be the next epicenter for this disease after PRC. Figure 1 shows the spread. Moreover, in the start of March, 2020 it is observed that spread is rapidly increasing outside the PRC (Heymann et al., 2020), like Italy, USA, Iran, Korea etc. Covid-19 seemed lower fatality rate that SARS, however, infection rate has been surpassed from SARS, Figure 2 shows the statistics. According to Asian Development Bank (ADB) Covid-19 outbreak has brought up several challenges for the economies and affected various economic channels. Further, ADB put forward analysis from global economy to regional or specific sector’s economies influenced from prevailing covid-19 outbreak (Wang et al., 2020). This study quantifies and forecasts likely approximations or effect size of this pandemic under several scenarios. The scenario assumptions and method behind effect size is clear. Moreover, this study does not only provide a bunch of regional or global influence but also roughly estimates about individual economies and sectors with their economies by experiencing and facing a significant outbreak. Additionally, present study summarizes the

S.A.Bhutto, S.Shaikh, M.Ashraf, H.Amar

respond of developing member countries and actions of ADB against this pandemic.

Figure 2: SARS and COVID-19 Infections and Fatalities Source: ADB calculations using data from CEIC Data Company and World Health Organization. 2020. Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation reports. https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports (accessed 2 March 2020).

2. SEVERAL AFFECTED ECONOMIC CHANNELS The nCov will effect several economic channels not only in that country where this outbreak started (PRC) but also among other developing nations of Asia. The domestic consumption (except basic goods) in PRC and other affected nations have temporarily declined. As consumption shrunk, decline in investment is also possible, because, acceleration in business activities is only possible when there is high rate of consumption. The business like travel and tourism, weak trade & production due to fall in international demand and barriers of freight and carriage, disruption of supply due to spillover of demand (or shocks), and a relatively high effect on health sectorial industries they temporary pump due to high mortality brings excess of demand for health care equipment. According to IMF (2019) (accessed 10th February 2019), experiencing SARS outbreak during 2003, PRCâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s rate of consumption had dropped temporarily and that was mainly domestic consumption, domestic was effected because people were told that if they stay home they become safe (Noy and Shields. 2019). Figure 3 shows that a massive decline rate in retail sales growth when experiencing SARS outbreak in PRC. The magnitude or effect size of Covid-19 may be much bigger than SARS, as world started suffering from this epidemic. Hence, this scenario forecasts a global investment decline in future and it is much dangerous for under developing countries like Pakistan. It is depicted that among several economic channels, business travel and tourism would have damaging effects in PRC and other nations. It is notion in developing Asia that tourism is one of the important sources of revenue for economies. The statistics shows that worldwide tourism receipt considered to be 40% of the GDP in nations such as Maldives and Palau. For instance, it is observed in Figure 4 that a total of tourism and travel is more than GDP with a rate of 10% among the members of ADB. Moreover, Chinese national are significant part for any country in terms of visitors. It is seen than outbound Chinese tourist 11 Million (in 2003) to 87 Million (in 2018). It is more than a quarter of world tourist, so, Figure 5 shows that countries like Hong Kong, Palau, Cambodia, Viet Nam, Korea, Mongolia, Thailand, Myanmar, and china himself (domestic travel) mostly experiences Chinese visitors. After nCov outbreak bans of tourism arrivals and receipts have been taken as precautionary measures which results a massive decline or slowdown in developing *Corresponding author (S.A.Bhutto) Email: Sarfaraz_ahmed0333@yahoo.com ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9P http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9P.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.178

Asian economies. Initially, 24 January 2020 travel and tourism bans was imposed by PRC. After imposition of the ban, 55% of the outbound tourism has been affected and expected to decline more. On 29 January 2020, experiencing china, 47 economies (mainly were USA, Australia, and Russia) have taken bans (travel to and from China) as precautionary measures. Figure 6 Shows that china sustained a 7.7% decline while experiencing SARS outbreak in 2003. Figure 7 shows that the outbreak of 2003 (SARS) East and Southeast Asian nations like Korea, Thailand, and Indonesia had declined even though they have few cases SARS.

Figure 3: Retail Sales and Personal Consumption Expenditures during SARS Episode (Sources: Haver Analytics; CEIC Data Company; WHO; and ADB).

Figure 4: International Tourism receipts by percentage of the GDP, 2017. Further, trade and production would also be effected due to external shocks and demand spill over. Trade & production sector also considered as one of the main and important sector of economy. After USA, China is worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s largest and remunerative economy, it is considered as 1/3 of the global economic growth. A large export among Developing Member Countries (DMCs) and ADB member countries (Figure 8). Hence, the outbreak (nCov) caused a massive drop in demand of goods and services of PRC (domestically and internationally). In 2018, MRIOT (Multiregional Input-Output Table) had used to incorporate and examine demand shocks spillovers on account of

S.A.Bhutto, S.Shaikh, M.Ashraf, H.Amar

trade and production. It estimates inter-economy and inter-sector connections for 62 nations (which is taken as 95% of world’s GDP) and every economy is being isolated into 35 sectors containing both goods and services. Hence, the Knock-on effects of tourism bans on trade and production can be traced through MRIOT. Another important economic channels is supply-side, especially, heath & health care. Certain disruption is observed in the process of production because lockdowns (forced closure of business) and workers’ inability or non-willingness to join workplace.

Figure 5: Tourist Arrivals from the PRC as share of Total arrivals, 2018.

Figure 6: Inbound Tourist Arrivals in the People’s Republic of China , 1995–2018 (Source: UNWTO (2019)). *Corresponding author (S.A.Bhutto) Email: Sarfaraz_ahmed0333@yahoo.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9P http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9P.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.178

Figure 7: Tourist Arrivals from Outside Asia to Selected Developing Member Countries, 20002005. (Source: World Tourism Organization.) The economic indicators revealed that at start of nCov outbreak PRC had lost 50% to 60% of normal level but now they are moving towards normal conditions. China is considered as hub for trade & add to trades (or value chains) and manufacturing concerns. Figure 9 shows the input of PRC (from & to). Although, effects of this disruption spreading out through the world because economies are interdependent.

3. Uncertainties and numerous after scenarios The progression of nCov outbreak is being observed among unpredictable trends and it has need to use and assume numerous after scenarios. Chunyun a right middle of PRC where the outbreak was originated in a festival from 10th Jan, 2020 to 18th Feb, 2020. This festival is basically for Chinese Lunar New Year. Festival griped a large number of people (including foreigners and local migrants). The estimated data given by PRC’s authorities revealed that during time of festival a number of 79m local and international flights have been taken by Chinese and other transportation modes such as road trips, rail and sea contains 2.4b, 440m and 45m respectively. The cumulative gathering (containing on in Wuhan dated 18th Jan, 2020) and incubation period of Covid-19 reported by WHO is from 1-14 days, has drastically played a role in spread of this epidemic within and outside of China (Wu and McGoogan, 2020). Consequently, different scenarios are being explored along with detailed assumptions, Table 2 Shows the cases comprising best, moderate and worst. • Best-Case Scenario: The Chinese outbreak has included some quick responses like bans of travel and implication of social distancing. Thus, the outbreak has been successfully quarantined which results a very short decline in consumption growth of PRC having 2.77pp in a quarter or 0.7pp for rest of the year. Compared to SARS, nCov outbreak is at its best scenario. • Moderate-Case Scenario: The Chinese outbreak is considered as last longer and widespread. Due to travel bans and slogan of “Stay at home” can bring a decline of 2pp in Chinese consumption growth for the whole year. • Worse-Case Scenario. The Chinese outbreak considered to adopt more precautionary measures and restrictive policies which can be continued for 6 months or might be more than six months. This economic slowdown can damage the growth in consumption as well as prevailing investment due to demand shock spillover. This decline is expected to 2pp.

S.A.Bhutto, S.Shaikh, M.Ashraf, H.Amar

•

Hypothetical Worst-Case Scenarios: Following the patterns of Chinese outbreak, other economies have assumed to describe if the outbreak reached to their inbound. However, it not a prediction, it is definite to say outbreak does grab these economies. There are several economies where facing this outbreak would be very costly and it may push them back economically for 10-15 years. The worst-case could not be similar for all economies, pandemic after scenarios depend on the economic strength of countries. Although, economies would experience a massive decline in consumption growth due to precautionary measures and restrictive policies. Moreover, weak economies will suffer more as they would be less medical or health facilities, but, nothing can be explained rigidly the outbreak sets its patterns on its own. Table 2: Full Set of Scenario Assumptions

DMC = developing member country, PCE = personal consumption expenditures, pp = percentage point, PRC = People’s Republic of China, SARS = Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome. (Source: ADB staff estimates).

The above mentioned scenarios would be changed if the pandemic spread throughout the world. Although, after PRC (accounted as 97% of the cases till Feb, 2020) now it hits hard to EU countries and USA. It is expected that EU countries and USA would be highly effected from COVID-19 and their economy might face a worse scenario. Moreover, ADB issued the safety warrants to Asian countries especially to Iran, Pakistan and other countries to adopt precautionary measures and make their policies more restrictive. The next update of ADB would be launched in the end of April, 2020. *Corresponding author (S.A.Bhutto) Email: Sarfaraz_ahmed0333@yahoo.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9P http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9P.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.178

4. PRCâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;S REFLECTIONS AND GLOBAL IMPACTS Table 3 shows that scenarios have determined and directs that 77-347 billion dollars would be the global impact and in terms of GDP 0.1-0.4%, while in the moderate level it is estimated as of 156b dollars (or .2%) of global GDP. Following best, worst, and moderate scenarios the 2/3 global impact accounted with PRC. This impact is relatively equal (roughly) to the rest of the developing Asia and world. Quantifying the loss (with moderate-case) for developing Asia would may be 22b dollars which is 0.24% in terms of global GDP. Among several economic channels, the channel of tourism among ADB and DMCs will be drastically affected results as massive drop in demand of tourism. Table 4 revealed that country like Palau, which mainly rely on tourism business (50% of its GDP based on tourism receipts) would be effected 3-9% of GDP from best to worst case scenario. Moreover, other countries who also mainly depends on tourism like Thailand, Maldives and Cambodia would face significant fall in revenue generated from tourism. A big drop in tourism arrivals among other developing Asian economies anecdotally depict a fall of 50-90% compared to the previous year. The authorities approximated a loss in terms of tourism revenue 19-45 billion dollars among developing Asian economies and 15-35 billion dollars only for PRC. Although, countries whose trade and production linage is relatively strong with PRC, would be mainly affected from the outbreak. In this connection (Figure 10), several economies would be materially affected like Viet Nam, Singapore, Magnolia, Hong Kong, and Philippines. However, Figures 8 & 9 considering destination, PRC is important for finished and in-process goods and services. Table 3: Estimated Global Regional Impact of COVID-19, under different Scenarios (Source: Asian Development Bank staff)

5. ADBâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;S RESPONSE FOR nCov OUTBREAK AND DEVELOPING ASIAN ECONOMIES As it is seen that the whole world responding for Covid-19 outbreak through making and adopting different precautionary measures and new policies. In the same manner, mostly countries from developing Asia is also adopting suggested measures to face the virus outbreak significantly. Hence, authorities of different countries have organized certain task forces and suitable mechanism for coordination to retain a smooth response. ADB and DMCs intend to protect their natives and various restrictions have been imposed and regulated on travels and trying to make strong process for more screenings, isolation facilities, awareness and quick quarantine while suspecting infected people. Therefore, continuous efforts have been delivered to make the people aware to understand the nature of outbreak and convince them for staying at home. Thus, authorities of several economies are taking quick actions to improve their health facilities. It is become mandatory for government to arrange and supply medical equipment (or protective equipment) especially for frontline forces like doctors and paramedics.

S.A.Bhutto, S.Shaikh, M.Ashraf, H.Amar

Figure 8: Exports to the People’s Republic of China by % of GDP, 2016-2018 average. Source: CEIC Data Company (accessed 10 February 2020). Economies are also working hard to increase the testing facility and building-up more laboratories. Thus, overcoming on these issues, few economies have already planned in their macroeconomic supportive policies. Interest-cuts are observed for several DMCs to support their fiscal measures and to make their economic cycle more smooth and ease. ADB’s continuous support contains financial and non-financial (like Knowledge and partnership). ADB has provided a technical assistance of 2b dollars to Chinese government to respond and detect nCov. ADB also granted 2m dollars of TA among other DMCs for supportive activities to fight with nCov. Moreover, ADB has reallocated the existing regional heath projects by 469m dollars to respond nCov epidemic. ADB offered further assistance (when needed) to all DMS in terms of emergency loans, instruments, countercyclical programs etc. Moving towards Knowledge perspective, which brings the continual analysis of outbreak and taken as part of ADB’s work. ADB is in partnership with WHO and other international partners like scientist and viral disease experts. ADB is also working to build an advisory group who may continuously look after the mitigation and certain measures for controls and to make an imminent response strategy. Figure 8 contains the average export ratio as per GDP percentage from 2016-2018. On average percentage of GDP, Hong Kong, China made more than 80% of exports and Mongolia is about 44% of its export as per average GDP. Taipei is on third in line, showing 28% of GDP. Moreover, Pakistan had made minimum export to the PRC, showing 3% of GDP which is more than India and less than Azerbaijan. *Corresponding author (S.A.Bhutto) Email: Sarfaraz_ahmed0333@yahoo.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9P http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9P.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.178

The global value chain (GVC) describes the people and activities involved in the production of a good or service and its supply, distribution, and post-sales activities when activities must be coordinated across geographies. Figure 9, Taipei had a slowdown in upstream GVC and increased by its downward GVC, and, the case of Republic of Korea is same like Taipei, China. Moreover, Vietnam, Mongolia and other countries had higher upstream GVC exposure to PRC.

Figure 9: Global Value Chain (GVC) Exposure to the PRC, selected Economies, 2018. From Figure 10, bars indicate the range of estimated impact, with the top of the bar indicating the best-case scenario impact, the midline indicating the moderate scenario impact, and the bottom of the bar indicating the worse-case scenario impact. The marker shows the economic impact of a hypothetical worst case scenario where a significant outbreak occurs in that economy. These should not be interpreted as a prediction that an outbreak will occur in any of these economies; in most of these economies there are very few cases of COVID-19. Rather, they are meant to guide policy makers in determining how costly an outbreak could be, so they can properly evaluate the benefits and costs of prevention and early response.

S.A.Bhutto, S.Shaikh, M.Ashraf, H.Amar

Figure 10: Impact of COVID-19 on the GDP of Selected Economies (Sources: Asian Development Bank (ADB) calculations using data from ADB Multiregional Input–Output Table). BAN = Bangladesh; BHU = Bhutan; BRU = Brunei Darussalam; CAM = Cambodia; FIJ = Fiji; HKG = Hong Kong, China; IND = India; INO = Indonesia; KAZ = Kazakhstan; KGZ = Kyrgyz Republic; LAO = Lao People’s Democratic Republic; MAL = Malaysia; MLD = Maldives; MON = Mongolia; NEP = Nepal; PAK = Pakistan; PHI = Philippines; ROK = Republic of Korea; SIN = Singapore; SRI = Sri Lanka; TAP = Taipei; THA = Thailand; VIE = Viet Nam.

Figure 10 elaborates the impact of COVID-19 on the GDP of Selected Economies. The impact is forecasted by ADB. The impact classified as best-case impact, moderate case impact, worse case impact, and hypothetical worst-case impact. The bottom fall of bar indicates that Maldives and Cambodia could be in the worst-case scenario. However, they have a few cases but they need to be prepared to get rid from the outbreak cost. Thailand has also predicted to have the impact best-case scenario, but, if not prepared so it could be fall into worst case scenario. Table 4: Decline in Tourism Revenues by Percentage of GDP among Asian Economies (Source: ADB staff estimates).

*Corresponding author (S.A.Bhutto) Email: Sarfaraz_ahmed0333@yahoo.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9P http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9P.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.178

Table 4 elaborates the decline in tourism revenue among Asian economies. The specific decline in tourism receipt is estimated by percentage of GDP. Table 4 shows all Asian economies considering best case, moderate case, and worse case. It is observed that in all cases (best, moderate, and worse) the Asian economies have negatively shifted in terms of tourism revenue. Countries like PRC, Thailand, Maldives, and Singapore have high tourism receipts, thus, they sustained with a massive decline in tourism receipt.

6. CONCLUSION In the wake of COVID-19 (Coronavirus) which is disclosed as world pandemic by the world health organization (WHO), mystified world economic system. In the very beginning, the damages came from this virus hits economic as well as health system of Wuhan City of PRC and now the outbreak has effected several economies. This study has reviewed the ongoing economic challenges and a massive slowdown among Asian developing economies (mainly for PRC). Firstly, it has reviewed that Asian developing economies indulged with investment decline and demand shock spillover which effected substantial economic channels like trade, travel, production and services. Secondly, it has reported different economic uncertainties and economic scenarios like best, moderate, and worse for PRC and other developing Asian economies. Thirdly, the essential role of ADB is reviewed with regard to financial and non-financial (Knowledge and Partnership) assistance provided among Asian developing economies.

7. DATA AND MATERIAL AVAILABILITY This study data can be provided upon contacting the corresponding author.

8. REFERENCES Althus, C. 2014. Estimating the Reproduction Number of Ebola Virus (EBOV) during the 2014 Outbreak in West Africa. DOI: 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.91afb5e0f279e7f29e7056095255b288 . Brahmbhatt, M., and A. Dutta. 2008. On SARS Type Economic Effects During Infectious Disease

Outbreaks. Washington DC: The https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/pdf/10.1596/1813-9450-4466.

World

Bank.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). 2020. 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season: Preliminary Burden Estimates. http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm CDC. 2019. MERS Clinical Features. http://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/mers/clinical-features.html. CDC. 2017. SARS Basics Fact Sheet. http://www.cdc.gov/sars/about/fs-sars.html Chang, D. et al. 2020. Epidemiologic and Clinical Characteristics of Novel Coronavirus Infections Involving 13 Patients outside Wuhan, China. JAMA. DOI: 10.1001/jama.2020.1623. Chen, N. et al. 2020. Epidemiological and Clinical Characteristics of 99 Cases of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia in Wuhan, PRC: A Descriptive Study. Lancet. 395 (10223). 507-513. Heymann, D. L. and N. Shindo. 2020. COVID-19: What is Next for Public Health? Lancet. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30374-3. IMF. 2019. Direction of Trade Statistics. International Monetary Fund. http://www.imf.org/en/Data (accessed 10 February 2019).

S.A.Bhutto, S.Shaikh, M.Ashraf, H.Amar

Noy, I., and S. Shields. 2019. The 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Epidemic: A Retroactive Examination of Economic Costs. ADB Economics Working Paper Series. No. 591. Manila: Asian Development Bank. Wang, C. et al. 2020. A Novel Coronavirus Outbreak of Global Concern. Lancet. 395(10223), 470-473. UNWTO. (2019). Guidelines for the Success in the Chinese Outbound Tourism Market. World Tourism Organization, Madrid. DOI: 10.18111/9789284421138. WHO. (2019). Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Situation Reports. World Health Organization http://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation- reports WHO. 2003. Consensus document on the epidemiology of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). https://www.who.int/csr/sars/en/WHOconsensus.pdf WHO. 2020a. Middle East Respiratory Syndrome. http://www.emro.who.int/health-topics/merscov/mersoutbreaks.html. WHO. 2020b. Ebola Virus Disease. http://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/ebola-virusdisease. Wu, J. T., K. Leung, and G. M. Leung. 2020. Nowcasting and Forecasting the Potential Domestic and International Spread of the COVID-19 Outbreak Originating in Wuhan, China: A Modelling Study. The Lancet. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30260-9. Wu, Z. and J. McGoogan. 2020. Characteristics of and Important Lessons from the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in China: Summary of a Report of 72,314 Cases from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. JAMA. 395 (10225). 689â&#x20AC;&#x201C;697. Sarfaraz Ahmed Bhutto is a PhD Scholar at institute of commerce, Shah Abdul Latif University, Khairpur, Sindh, Pakistan. He earned an M.Phil (Finance) from the same university. His core research area has been remained with Corporate Finance, Investments, Financial Markets and Economics. He is an Assistant Professor (Full Time) at Dadabhoy Institute of Higher Education, Pakistan and also works at The Shaikh Ayaz University, Shikarpur, Pakistan as a visiting faculty. Saifullah is a PhD Scholar (Commerce). He is an Assistant Professor (Full Time) at Shah Abdul Latif University Khairpur, Sindh, Pakistan. Shaikh got his M.Phil from SALU Pakistan. His main research interest is in the field of human resource management (HRM)

Ashraf is a PhD scholar at institute of Commerce, Shah Abdul Latif University Khairpur, Sindh, Pakistan. He got an M.Phil (HRM) from University of Karachi, Pakistan. He is an Assistant Professor (Visiting Faculty) at Indus University Karachi, Pakistan. His core research area is HRM.

Dr. Hussain Amar is a Lecturer at Government Islamia Arts & Commerce Government Sukkur, Pakistan. He got his PhD (Commerce) from Institute of Commerce, Shah Abdul Latif University Khairpur, Sindh, Pakistan. He is also a visiting faculty at Dadabhoy Institute of Higher Education. Human resource management is his core research interest. He can be reached at amarjumani88 @ gmail.com

*Corresponding author (S.A.Bhutto) Email: Sarfaraz_ahmed0333@yahoo.com ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9P http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9P.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.178

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A9Q

AN INVESTIGATION OF CAPABILITY OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE APPROACH IN DROUGHT FORECAST 1*

Uruya Weesakul , Shekhar Mahat 1

Department of Civil Engineering, Thammasat School of Engineering, Thammasat University, THAILAND.

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 16 December 2019 Received in revised form 28 February 2020 Accepted 09 March 2020 Available online 31 March 2020

In Thailand, droughts frequently occur during the last 5 decades with increases in frequency of occurrence and their impact on the agricultural sector as well as human economic activities, in recent decades due to climate change. It is necessary to develop drought forecasting models for efficient water resources management. Rare drought forecast models, with high accuracy, are developed in Thailand. The study aims to investigate the capability of an Artificial Intelligence Approach in drought forecasting by using Deep Learning Neural Network (DNN) for monthly rainfall forecast. Eastern river basin in Thailand was selected as a case study, due to its frequent occurrence of drought. Monthly rainfall from Plauk Daeng station during 1991-2016 was collected for analysis of drought situations. Drought in the study is defined as low rainfall than normal conditions leading to insufficient water to meet normal needs. The percentile range method was adopted in the study for drought identification when monthly rainfall is lower than the 40th percentile then drought condition is classified. Monthly rainfall during 1991-2010 was used for the training process of the DNN model while monthly rainfall during 2011-2016 was used for the validation process. Drought forecast during the validation process reveals that Artificial Intelligence Approach can predict drought situations with acceptable accuracy for only three months ahead with 60% accuracy. When the leading time of the forecast increases to be 6 months, the accuracy of the forecast decreases to be only 55%. Further study to improve model performance will be conducted using the Input Selection Technique so that the model is applicable in engineering practice.

Keywords:

Deep neural network; Rainfall forecasting; Large-scale atmospheric variables; Drought forecasting modelling; Klong Yai river basin; Thailand.

1. INTRODUCTION During the last five decades, Thailand frequently experiences drought phenomena in almost all regions in the country. The frequency of drought occurrence, as well as their impacts on agricultural *Corresponding author (Uruya Weesakul). Email: wuruya@engr.tu.ac.th ©2020 International Transaction Journal of

Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9Q http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9Q.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.179

sectors and human economic activities, is increasing in the last two decades due to climate change. To reduce the drought damage, an early drought warning is required. An attempt of developing drought forecast model was conducted in this study. In Thailand, a rare drought forecast model with high accuracy of the forecast was developed. Firstly, the drought situation definition is difficult to explain. Secondly, it is hard to collect ground truth data. The definition of drought is categorized in the four types namely meteorological, agricultural, hydrologic, and economic considerations (Rasmussen et al., 1993). Meteorological (climatological) drought is described as a time interval during that the supply of moisture at a given place cumulatively is less than the climatologically appropriate moisture supply (Palmer, 1965). Agricultural drought is considered for a time interval that soil moisture cannot meet the evapotranspiration demand for crop initiation, to sustain crops and pastures or supply water for irrigation crops or livestock (Rasmussen et al., 1993). Hydrological drought is a condition of a time interval of less than normal streamflow or depleted reservoir/groundwater storage. Socio-economics drought is the effects of physical processes on human economic activities due to drought. In this study drought is defined as low rainfall than normal conditions, leading to insufficient water to meet average water requirements. This study investigates whether Artificial Intelligence approach is able to forecast drought situation or not.

2. STUDY AREA AND DATA COLLECTION Based on the National Economics and Social Development Plan of Thailand, the eastern region will be developed to be Eastern Economics Corridor which certainly has high water demand in the near future. The Klong Yai river basin, situated in the eastern region, was chosen as a study case. Klong Yai river basin covers the drainage area 1800 square kilometers. Monthly rainfall data during 1991-2016 from Pluak Daeng station, see Figure 1, was used for analysis and model simulation.

Figure 1: The study area.

U. Weesakul, S. Mahat

3. IDENTIFICATION OF ATMOSPHERIC PREDICTORS FOR RAINFALL FORECAST It has been revealed by several previous studies (Weesakul et al., 2013a, 2013b, 2013c, 2013d; Weesakul and Yodpongpiput, 2015; Weesakul et al., 2013e, 2014, 2016) that seasonal rainfall in different parts of Thailand was influenced by Large-scale Atmospheric Variables (LAV). However, the correlation between LAV and seasonal rainfall varied from region to region as well as varied from season to season (Weesakul et al., 2013a, 2013b, 2013c, 2013d; Weesakul and Yodpongpiput, 2015; Weesakul et al., 2013e, 2014, 2016). For seasonal rainfall, four Atmospheric Predictors for rainfall forecast are Sea Level Pressure (SLP), Sea Air Temperature (SAT), Surface Zonal wind (ս) and Surface Meridian Wind (ʋ) (Weesakul et al., 2013a, 2013b, 2013c, 2013d; Weesakul and Yodpongpiput, 2015; Weesakul et al., 2013e, 2014, 2016). To develop a rainfall forecast model for water resources management, monthly rainfall should be accurately forecasted instead of seasonal rainfall. Weesakul et al. (2018) investigate the correlation between LAV in different layers and monthly rainfall over the study area to identify predictive Large-Scale Atmospheric Variables for monthly rainfall forecast over the eastern river basin in Thailand. Table 1 presents the influential LAV predictors used to forecast monthly rainfall in this study. Table 1: Large-scale Atmospheric Variables (LAV) used in the study. Variable abbreviation AT1 AT2 AT3 AT4 AT5 GH1 GH2 GH3 MW1 MW2 MW3 O1 O2 OLR1 P1 PR1 PR2 PW1 PW2 RH1 RH2 SH1 SH2 SH3 SH4 SH5 SH6 SLP1 SLP2 SST1 ZW1 Irf

Variable Name

Height Based on atmospheric pressure (millibar)

Geopotential Height

Meridional Wind Omega

0o to 5o S

10o to 16o N 13o N

101o 18’ E

0o to 5o N 12o to 20o N 10o to 15o N 0o to 5o S 11o to 16o N 5o to 10o N 0o to 5o S

2000 Precipitation Rate 925 400 500 Relative Humidity 28up to 300mb only 400 600

Sea Surface Temperature Zonal Wind Monthly Rainfall at Pluak Daeng Station (mm)

25o to 30o N 0o to 5o S o 12 30’ to 17o 30’ N 3o S to 3o N 9o to 14o N 7o to 12o N

2000

850 2000 50 250 600 850 10 150 200 500 925

Outgoing Longwave Radiation Pressure

Sea Level Pressure

Longitude 175o to 180o E 210o to 218o E 157o 30’ to 167o 30’ E 250o to 260o E 110o to 120o E 180o to 185o E 135o to 140o E 240o to 250o E 180o to 190o E o 207 30’ to 212o 30’ E 155o to 160o E 207o 30’ to 212o 30’ E 155o to 160o E 255o to 260o E 220o to 225o E 255o to 260o E 202o to 207o E 180o to 190o E 105o to 115o E 135o to 140o E 202o to 207o E 205o to 210o E 180o to 185o E 120o to 130o E 110o to 120o E 110o to 115o E o 217 30’ to 222o 30’ E 255o to 260o E o 207 30’ to 212o 30’ E 255o to 260o E 85o to 95o E

400 Air Temperature

Latitude

2o S to 3o N 0o to 5o N 5o to 10o S 7o 30’ S to 2o 30’ N 2o to 7o N 5o to 10o N o 12 30’ to 17o 30’ N 0o to 5o N 7o to 15o N 0o to 5o S 0o to 5o N 2o 30’ S to 2o 30’ N 2o to 7o S

Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9Q http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9Q.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.179

4. MODEL FORMULATION APPROACH

BASED

ARTIFICIAL

INTELLIGENCE

Recently, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) was used to forecast monthly rainfall in this eastern region river basin (Thammakul and Kaewprapha, 2017). Yet, the forecast accuracy was not sufficient enough for practical use in water resources management, particularly for reservoir operation. Presently new advanced calculation techniques, particularly AI techniques (Hochreiter and Schmidhuber, 1997; Cho et al., 2014; Donahue et al., 2015; Sutskever et al., 2014; Karpathy and Fei-Fei, 2017; Ranzato et al., 2014; Srivastava et al., 2015; Xu et al., 2015; Klein et al., 2015; Xingjian et al., 2015) are capable of improving the accuracy of the forecast. The monthly rainfall forecast model was therefore developed based on this new AI technique like Deep Learning Neural Network (DNN) technique (Weesakul et al., 2018), using influential LAV as predictors as shown in Table 1. In this study, such a DNN model was applied to forecast monthly rainfall which is a water availability indicator for drought classification. The formulation of Deep Learning Neural Network based on the Artificial Intelligence approach is represented in Figure 2.

Figure 2: DNN architecture developed with 384 inputs to predict the monthly rainfall forecast. Generally, a simple neural network consists of three layers i.e. input, hidden, and output layers. The principle of calculation of the output layer is to minimize the errors (ERR) between Observed output (O) and Predicted output (P) by using quadratic loss function as presented in Equation (3). The procedure of manipulation can be summarized as N ďŁŤ ďŁś = rj Î´ ( net = Î´ B + j) ďŁŹ j â&#x2C6;&#x2018; I ij Fij ďŁˇ i =1 ďŁ ďŁ¸

where I ij is the input at đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; value hidden node đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;;

Fij is the weight for i value hidden node đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;; B j is the bias on hidden node đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;;

rj is the output on hidden node đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;;

Î´ is activation function

U. Weesakul, S. Mahat

(1),

net j is network node input of sigmoid function on the hidden node đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;.

Î´ (net j ) =

1+ e

â&#x2C6;&#x2019; net j

(2),

where đ?&#x203A;żđ?&#x203A;żďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014; ďż˝ is the sigmoid function output on the hidden node đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;. ERR =

1 2 ( Obs â&#x2C6;&#x2019; Pre ) 2

(3),

where ERR is the error,

Obs is the observed output, Pre is the predicted output. In the process of minimizing errors, partial derivatives (Equation (4)) and chain rules were used as techniques in back-propagation (second step of the calculation) to find the best weights ( Fij ) at each node. Summary of manipulation can be written as

where

đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ??šđ??šđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; =

đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ?&#x153;&#x2022; đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ??šđ??šđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;

= ďż˝Obs-Preďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x;đ?&#x2018;&#x;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;â&#x20AC;˛ = ďż˝Obs-Preďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014; ďż˝1 â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014; ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014; â&#x20AC;˛

(4),

đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ??šđ??šđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; is weight change of weights i at the hidden node đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;;

đ?&#x2018;&#x;đ?&#x2018;&#x;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;â&#x20AC;˛ is a derivative activation function at the hidden node đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;;

đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014; is network node input of sigmoid function at the hidden node đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;;

and

đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014; â&#x20AC;˛ is a derivative of the network at the hidden node đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;; đ??šđ??šđ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A; = đ??šđ??šđ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153; + đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ??šđ??šđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;

(5),

đ??šđ??šđ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A; is a new weight of đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; value at the hidden node đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014; đ??šđ??šđ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153; is an old weight of đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; value at the hidden node đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;

In this study, 31 Large Scale Atmospheric Variables and one monthly rainfall, for 12 months 32x12 = 384 input variables were used to forecast one output monthly rainfall. Several simulations in the training process of the model revealed that 5 hidden layers with 128 nodes provide the minimum error of forecast (see Figure 2).

5. DROUGHT INDICATION In this study, drought is defined as low rainfall than normal conditions, leading to insufficient water to meet the average water requirement. Rainfall is major water resources in this area, therefore amount of rainfall is reasonable to be a good indicator of water availability for all kinds of water demand. There are a variety of drought indices using the amount of rainfall as important variables, for example, the Palmer drought severity index (Palmer, 1965), Standardized Precipitation Index (Mckee et al, 1993), the decile method (White and O'Meagher, 1995), etc. This study preliminary investigates the capability of the AI approach in drought forecast, *Corresponding author (Uruya Weesakul). Email: wuruya@engr.tu.ac.th ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of

Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9Q http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9Q.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.179

therefore, in this study drought is simply defined by using the Percentile range. Based on UNESCO report criteria (White et al., 1999), drought condition is defined as shown in Table 2. Table 2: Drought Identification defined by Percentile Range. Percentile Range Drought condition 0-10 Severe drought 11-40 Drought 41-100 Normal to wet The Percentile range method was used in this study to identify drought conditions in the study area. The monthly rainfall of Plauk Daeng station during 1991-2010 was analyzed and ranking percentile for each month. Table 3 shows the amount of monthly rainfall in each month for each level of water availability. Table 3: Drought Identification using Percentile Range of monthly rainfall (mm) at Plauk Daeng rainfall station during 1991-2010. Drought condition Severe drought

Percentile Range 0 10 11 40 41 100

Drought Normal to wet

Jan Feb Mar Apr May

Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

0 0 1 14 15 76

0 0 55 37 56 38 93 87 94 88 335 273

0 6 7 14 15 83

0 9 10 43 44 167

0 29 30 110 111 193

0 78 79 116 117 262

0 76 77 120 124 192

0 97 98 198 199 423

0 129 130 171 172 315

0 0 1 13 14 142

0 0 0 0 1 63

6. PERFORMANCE OF DROUGHT FORECAST MODEL To investigate the capability of the DNN model in the forecasting of drought situation in the study area, firstly monthly rainfall of the study area was forecasted, from 2011-2016. Secondly, the forecasted monthly rainfall was ranked in the Percentile range which indicates the drought situation of that month (Table 3). The forecast accuracy was calculated by comparison between forecasted and observed drought situation, which can be expressed as Accuracy of Forecast =

N CF *100 NT

(6),

where N CF is the number of months that forecasted drought situation is correct, based on observed drought situation

NT is the total number of months which is simulated by DNN model (in this particular case, NT is 72 months i.e. 2011-2016). Evaluation of the performance of the drought forecast model was conducted during 2011-2016 with three scenarios, which are three months leading time of the forecast, six months leading time of forecast and 12 months leading time of forecast. Figure 3 shows the DNN model performance in the forecasting of the drought situation, revealing that model can forecast drought situation with acceptable accuracy for only three months leading time of the forecast, while a one-year leading time of forecast provides unsatisfactorily accuracy of the forecast.

U. Weesakul, S. Mahat

Figure 3: Performance of DNN model in drought forecast in the eastern river basin of Thailand.

7. CONCLUSION An attempt to investigate the capability of the Artificial Intelligence approach in drought forecast was conducted. The selected river basin is in the eastern region of Thailand due to its frequent experiences in lacking water resources in the area. Deep Learning Neural Network (DNN) was selected as an Artificial Intelligence tool for forecasting of monthly rainfall. The monthly rainfall at Plauk Daeng rainfall station during 1991-2010 was analyzed and used in the training process of the DNN model while time series during 2011-2016 was used in the validation process. Correlation analysis between monthly rainfall over the river basin and Large Atmospheric Variables in various layers around the study area revealed that there are 31 influential LAV that can be predictors for forecasted monthly rainfall. The percentile range method was adopted in the study to identify drought situation. When monthly rainfall is lower than the 40th percentile, the drought situation is identified. Comparison between forecasted drought based on DNN model and observed drought during 2011-2016 revealed that the DNN model is capable of forecasting drought for three months leading time with acceptable accuracy of about 60%. However, the accuracy of forecast decreased to 55% and 51% when the leading time of forecast increases to 6 months and one year, respectively. It is necessary to further study to improve the performance of the DNN model in forecast monthly rainfall, which may be the improvement in the process of input selection technique to identify the most predictable predictors, consequently providing more satisfactorily result which can be used in real engineering practice.

8. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIAL Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding authors.

9. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This research has been financially supported by the Faculty of Engineering, Thammasat University.

10. REFERENCES Rasmussen, E. M., Dickinson, R. E., Kutzbach, J. E., Cleaveland, M. K. (1993). Handbook of Hydrology. Climatology. McGraw-Hill, New York. 2-1. *Corresponding author (Uruya Weesakul). Email: wuruya@engr.tu.ac.th ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of

Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9Q http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9Q.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.179

Palmer, W. C. (1965). Meteorological drought. US Department of Commerce, Weather Bureau. Research no. 45. Vol. 30. Weesakul, U., Singhrattna, N., Viwat, H. (2013, September). Identification of large-scale atmospheric predictors for rainfall forecasting of Nan River Basin. In the 5th National Convention on Water Resources Engineering Symposium. Chiangrai, Thailand. Weesakul, U., Singhratta, N., Luangdilok, N. (2013). Identification of large-scale atmospheric predictors for rainfall forecasting of Chi River Basin (Thailand). In the 5th National Convention on Water Resources Engineering Symposium. Chiangrai, Thailand, 5-6. Weesakul, U., Singhratta, N., Yodpongpiput, P. (2013). Statistical relationships between large-scale atmospheric variables and rainfall in Mun River Basin (Thailand). In the 5th National Convention on Water Resources Engineering Symposium. Chiang Rai, Thailand. Thailand: Engineering Institute of Thailand. Weesakul, U., Singhrattna, N., Khetped, N. (2013). Large-scale atmospheric variables influencing on rainfall in Tapee River Basin. In 5th National Convention on Water Resources Engineering Symposium. Chiengrai, Thailand. Weesakul, U., Yodpongpiput, P. (2015). Interannual variability of monsoon rainfall in Thailand: an inconsistent effect of climate change over South East Asian region. American Transactions on Engineering and Applied Sciences. 4(4), 251-60. Weesakul, U., Singhrattna, N., Luangdilok, N. (2013, November). Effects of climate change on Thailand rainfall variability. In the 3rd International Engineering Symposium on Engineering, Energy and Environments. Bangkok, Thailand. Weesakul, U., Singhratta, N., Luangdilok, N. (2014). Rainfall forecast in northeast of Thailand using modified k-nearest neighbor. Engineering and Applied Science Research. 41(2), pp. 253-261. Weesakul, U., Singhratta, N., Yodpongpiput, P. (2016). Seasonal rainfall forecast for cropping pattern planning using a modified k-nearest neighbor model. Engineering and Applied Science Research. 43(3), pp. 156-161. Weesakul, U., Kaewprapha, P., Boonyuen, K., Mark, O. (2018). Deep learning neural network: A machine learning approach for monthly rainfall forecast, case study in eastern region of Thailand. Engineering and Applied Science Research. 45(3), 203-211. Thammakul, P., Kaewprapha, P. (2017, November) Rainfall forecasting using artificial neural networks in eastern river basin of Thailand. In the 40th Electrical Engineering Conference. Chonburi, Thailand. Hochreiter, S., Schmidhuber, J. (1997). Long short-term memory. Neural computation. 9(8), pp. 1735-1780. Graves, A. (2013). Generating sequences with recurrent neural networks. arXiv preprint arXiv:1308.0850. Cho, K., Van MerriĂŤnboer, B., Gulcehre, C., Bahdanau, D., Bougares, F., Schwenk, H., Bengio, Y. (2014). Learning phrase representations using RNN encoder-decoder for statistical machine translation. arXiv preprint arXiv:1406.1078. Donahue, J., Anne Hendricks, L., Guadarrama, S., Rohrbach, M., Venugopalan, S., Saenko, K., Darrell, T. (2015). Long-term recurrent convolutional networks for visual recognition and description. In IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence. 39(4), 677-691. Sutskever, I., Vinyals, O., Le, Q. V. (2014, December). Sequence to sequence learning with neural networks. In Advances in neural information processing systems. Montreal, Canada, 3104-3112. Karpathy, A., Fei-Fei, L. (2017). Deep visual-semantic alignments for generating image descriptions. IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence. 39(4), 664-676. Ranzato, M., Szlam, A., Bruna, J., Mathieu, M., Collobert, R., Chopra, S. (2014). Video (language) modeling: a baseline for generative models of natural videos. arXiv preprint arXiv:1412.6604. Srivastava, N., Mansimov, E., Salakhudinov, R. (2015, June). Unsupervised learning of video representations using lstms. In International conference on machine learning, 843-852.

U. Weesakul, S. Mahat

Xu, K., Ba, J., Kiros, R., Cho, K., Courville, A., Salakhudinov, R., Zemel, R., Bengio, Y. (2015, June). Show, attend and tell: Neural image caption generation with visual attention. In International conference on machine learning, 2048-2057. Klein, B., Wolf, L., Afek, Y. (2015). A dynamic convolutional layer for short-range weather prediction. In Proceedings of the IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition. Boston, MA. pp. 4840-4848. Xingjian, S. H. I., Chen, Z., Wang, H., Yeung, D. Y., Wong, W. K., Woo, W. C. (2015). Convolutional LSTM network: A machine learning approach for precipitation nowcasting. In Advances in neural information processing systems. pp. 802-810. McKee, T. B., Doesken, N. J., Kleist, J. (1993, January). The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology. 17(22), pp. 179-183. White, D. H., O'Meagher, B. (1995). Coping with exceptional droughts in Australia. Drought Network News (1994-2001). 91. White, I., Falkland, T., Scott, D. (1999, June). Droughts in small coral islands: case study, South Tarawa, Kiribati. Paris: Unesco. Shekhar Mahat is pursuing an M. Sc. degree at Department of Civil Engineering, Thammasat School of Engineering, Thammasat University, Thailand. He received his Bachelorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s degree in Civil Engineering from JNTUA, India. His research interest areas are Hydrology, Rainfall Forecast, Drought Monitor, Flood Analysis, Climate Change, and Machine Learing Applications.

Dr. Uruya Weesakul is an Associate Professor at Department of Civil Engineering, Thammasat School of Engineering, Thammasat University, Thailand. She received her Doctoral degree in Mechanical and Civil Engineering from University of Montpellier II, France. Her research of interest focuses on Rainfall Forecast Modelling, Drought and Flood Forecast Modelling, Water Resource Management and Planning.

*Corresponding author (Uruya Weesakul). Email: wuruya@engr.tu.ac.th ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of

Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9Q http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9Q.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.179

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A9R

NEXUS AMONG SOCIAL SUSTAINABLE PERFORMANCE, SOCIAL SUSTAINABLE SUPPLY CHAIN PRACTICES AND OPERATION PERFORMANCE: DOES THE LONG-TERM ORIENTATION MATTER? Abhishek Tripathi 1

Department of Management & Information System, College of Business Administration, University of Hail, KINGDOM OF SAUDI ARABIA.

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 04 January 2020 Received in revised form 02 March 2020 Accepted 19 March 2020 Available online 31 March 2020

This study’s prime objective is to explore the nexus among social sustainable performance, socially sustainable supply chain practices, and operational performance. Additionally, the study has also examined the moderating role of long-term orientation between social sustainability performance and socially sustainable supply chain practices. The results of the study are different from the previous researches in different ways. Keywords: performance cannot be improved through the Operational performance Operational implementation of basic social sustainable supply chain practices. (OP); Supply Chain; Innovation can be suppressed by basic practices in this way. The Social sustainable; Sustainable service operational outcomes can improve through the use of advanced social supply chain (SSSC); sustainable supply chain practices. Moreover, it influences the Limited Time Offer operational performance positively. The results are consistent with the (LTO); Corporate previous research, which supports that change in product design and the sustainability; Business process can result in improved learning for the organization. In this Sector Support Program research, the specific practices and their influence created on the (BSSP); Social Sustainability Orientation operational performance have been defined, which makes it different from the previous researches. The use of advanced SSSC practices needs (SSOR). coordination and improved strategic planning in the supply chain. The operational outcomes of the firm can improve as well. The study has contributed to long term orientation and social sustainable performance theory regarding the second research question. The use of advanced practices enables the positive influence of sustainability orientation on the firm’s operational performance. It has been found that the use of advanced practices results in operational benefits but there is a need for further analysis from the aspect of basic practices. It is important to invest in advanced practices that may require more resources but result in improved operational performance. Disciplinary: Management Sciences (Sustainable Management). ©2020 INT TRANS J ENG MANAG SCI TECH. *Corresponding author (A. Tripathi). Tel: +966-530136562 Email: a.tripathi@uoh.edu.sa ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9R http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9R.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.180

1. INTRODUCTION Different initiatives are included in socially sustainable supply chains. These initiatives are related to slave and child labor, health and safety, community impact and human rights programs. In 2012, the incident of Dhaka fire and Rana Plaza collapse in 2013 highlighted the issues of slave and child labor in the internal supply chain (Haque & Azmat, 2015; International Labor Organization, 2017). Several international brands including Marks and Spencer started expanded their practices of SSSC (Sustainable Service Supply Chain) to facilitate better human rights across the supplier communities and supply chain. Different outcomes can be achieved through the implementation of SSSC (Sustainable Service Supply Chain) practices as compared with environmental ones (Bansal & Song, 2017; Yawar & Seuring, 2017). For suppliers, the practices of SSSC including monitoring and codes of conduct serve as instructions for the issues of sustainability and monitoring of supplier activities (Mani & Gunasekaran, 2018; Mani et al., 2016; Yawar & Seuring, 2017). By improving behavior of supplier sustainability, sustainability performance may not be achieved. The compliance audit was passed for the Rana Plaza just a few months before its collapse. The Ferrero Group planned to eliminate the slavery of cocoa suppliers by 2020. Being the 3rd largest producer of chocolate in the world, the act was done in collaboration with Enterprise Cooperative Kimbre in Côte D’Ivoire. A major factor of sustainability effort was formed by this collaboration while representing the challenges for reputation and improving the operational performance (OP) (Croom et al., 2018). It has been argued that a wide range of SSSC activities should be implemented by firms. Most of the firms try to limit such practices to the upstream partners including certification and monitoring. It is crucial to know about the effective practices to improve sustainability, which enhances the overall performance of the firm and the ways for creating such influence (Hameed et al., 2019; Stevens & Johnson, 2016). In a wide range of sustainable service supply chain practices, the basic and advanced practices were distinguished by Mani and Gunasekaran (2018). The basic practices focus on the workers’ health and safety within the supply chain and management systems. However, the advanced practices have focused on new products/processes development, offering several benefits to the stakeholders, ensuring transparency. These include the communities and NGOs in the decision making of the supply chain (Mani & Gunasekaran, 2018). It is difficult to define these activities because of limited research on practices of SSSC. Therefore, it is not much known about their drivers and influences. Moreover, the evidence is not clear for the influence of SSSC on the firm’s OP (Mani & Gunasekaran, 2018). Some studies found that the knowledge access and capabilities of information sharing are improved through general practices of sustainability. OP can be improved indirectly by the SSSC practices through a decrease in the operational risk and increase of reputation when the public recognizes the adoption of SSSC (Yawar & Seuring, 2017). Sodhi (2015) noted further investigation of this concept. Thus, this study is based on analyzing the influence of social sustainability orientation (SSOR) and Limited Time Offer (LTO) on OP and SSSC practices. SSOR refers to the level with which the firms are committed to the practices of SSSC in their activities. This study, research questions are Research Question 1: Is there any influence of sustainability orientation on operational performance via SSSC practices (basic and advanced). In what way, the influence is created, Research Question 2: Is there any influence of LTO on the association of SSSC practices, sustainability orientation, and OP? If yes then how?

Abhishek Tripathi

2. LITERATURE REVIEW AND HYPOTHESIS DEVELOPMENT 2.1 BASIC AND ADVANCED SSSC ORIENTATION (SSOR) AND OP

PRACTICES,

SOCIAL

SUSTAINABILITY

Mani and Gunasekaran (2018) used SSSC practices, based on the context of internal decisionmaking and the firm’s sourcing. The potential relationship between operational performance and sustainability orientation of a firm is not addressed by their study. Two main types of basic SSSC practices have been identified including management systems and monitoring activities, to improve the workers’ health and safety within the supply chain (Mani and Gunasekaran, 2018). The relationship between OP and basic practices of SSSC has been analyzed by a limited number of studies. The influence of basic practices including capabilities and behaviors of suppliers as well as productivity on the operational performance has been examined by some studies. It was found that the basic practices including policies and code of conduct of the company can support improvement in the sustainable behavior of suppliers but these may not result in sustainable outcomes. Yawar and Seuring (2017) found the firms implementing basic SSSC practices including monitoring of suppliers can share the social capabilities of suppliers. Similarly, the quality, productivity, retention of employees is improved through the use of basic practices. Yawar and Seuring (2017) suggested that the benefits of basic practices can improve quality, processes, reduction in lead-time, which ultimately improves operational performance. For a decade, an international company for sportswear, Puma has engaged itself in dialogues with multiple stakeholders. These dialogues are being used in the process of decision-making and strategy formulation. Suppliers have been motivated to give information about the key indicators for social performance. The supply chain visibility has been increased allowing Puma to identify opportunities and mitigate risks for the development of products and processes. Social issues become central to the supply chain and organization. It should increase the long-term performance of the firm (Bansal & Song, 2017). Moreover, the identification of inefficiencies of products and processes in an analytical manner signifies the advanced practices. This is based on the use of operational data in the analysis for making a decision. The personnel engaged in the knowledge sharing collaboration related to the internal activities of organizations is increased by this forensic approach. The sustainability goals are achieved by this approach. By analyzing the relationship between operational performance and social sustainability orientation, the influence of SSSC practices (basic and advanced) can be different. The relationship will be influenced by the implemented type of practice. In this way, the following hypotheses have been developed: H1: SSOR has a significant impact on Operational performance (OP). H2: SSOR has a significant impact on the Business Sector Support Program (BSSP). H3: SSOR has a significant impact on the Application-Specific Standard Product (ASSP). H4: BSSP has a significant impact on the OP. H5: ASSP has a significant impact on Operational performance. LTO is important to achieve the benefits of supply chain practices and sustainable operations. *Corresponding author (A. Tripathi). Tel: +966-530136562 Email: a.tripathi@uoh.edu.sa ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9R http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9R.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.180

The corporate sustainability is considered as a construct, which is long term (Klassen & Hajmohammad, 2017). Bansal and Song (2017) argued that the value of investing in sustainable activities is recognized by LTO even the investments cannot be recovered in a short time. Therefore, other benefits including lower risks, stakeholder relations, and reduced distraction of management by increasing alignment between the demands of stakeholders need to be traded off. The relationship between LTO, sustainability, and firm performance has been supported by Stevens and Johnson (2016). It was pointed out that several firms realize that there is a need for LTO for the implementation of SSCM practices in a successful manner. For instance, when firms have LTO, they are capable of making partnerships successfully with the suppliers. This can create a positive influence on the operational performance through reduction in lead times, improvement of processes, and quality. Jamali and Karam (2018) and Klassen and Hajmohammad (2017) noted that rare attention has been received by the temporal issues linked with performance and sustainability practices. The temporal orientation of a firm is linked with use of various types of sustainability practices. Indicated by literature, the adoption of SSSC practices (basic) is based on temporal orientation. A small number of studies have analyzed the temporal orientation of the firm on the use of SSSC practices (basic). The short-term outcomes are emphasized by some certification programs of suppliers i.e. FLO-CERT given by Fairtrade (Klassen & Hajmohammad, 2017). Moreover, such suppliers can retain skilled workers for a long time that signifies the role played by LTO in the decision of a firm to implement basic practices. Moreover, there is a relationship between advanced practices of SSSC with LTO. Khan et al. (2016) found a positive relationship between sustainable firms and LTO. It is claimed that the use of sustainable practices is required for LTO, which can fulfill the needs of various groups of stakeholders. The discussion formulates the research hypotheses H6: LTO moderates the relationship between SSOR and BSSP. H7: LTO moderates the relationship between SSOR and ASSP.

3. METHODOLOGY AND MEASUREMENT A total of 239 questionnaires were forwarded to the respondents and the gathered questionnaires were around 137. The response rate came out to be 57.32 percent, which is significant as per the argument of Dikko (2016). A 30 percent response rate is acceptable for research surveys. Senior management includes chief executives, vice presidents, presidents (19 %) supply chain and operations managers (58.2%), and supply chain directors (22.9%) along with functional in managing supply chain (58.2%) were included in the sample. The average respondents were working for 7-8 years. A seven-point Likert scale was used for checking the agreement level of the respondents (1 refers strong disagree and 7 strongly agree). A seven-item construct was used to measure the orientation of social sustainability as proposed by Mani and Gunasekaran (2018). The measures proposed were used to assess operational performance. Two-second order constructs were used to determine SSSC practices (basic and advanced). A three-item construct was used to determine the LTO suggested by Bansal and Song (2017).

Abhishek Tripathi

4. RESULTS Two tools have been used for the analysis of data in this research including Smart PLS-2 and SPSS. For statistical analysis, SPSS version 22 can be used for coding, screening of data, descriptive statistics, biasness of non-response, missing data detection, and assessment of internal consistency and condition of multivariate data i.e. common method variance, homoscedasticity, normality, and linearity, etc. Ringle et al., (2015) has recommended software for statistical analysis, which has been used in this research for the determination of the inner and outer model. The software is Smart PLS 2.0 M3. The hypotheses have been tested in the estimation of the structural model. The inter associations among the variables can be examined simultaneously through SEM (structural equation modeling). Substantial justification is required for the adoption of PLS-SEM (Jaafar et al., 2015; Muneer, 2020). Therefore, this research has selected PLS-SEM because of the various benefits associated with it. Firstly, when then the model is complex, a simple PLS approach cannot give appropriate results. For the complexity of research models with several variables and paths, PLS-SEM is considered an effective approach. It has been recommended by Jaafar et al. (2015) that when there are more than 23 items involved in the research model, PLS-SEM can be effective to adopt. Another important fact, which makes the choice of PLS-SEM method effective, is the sample size. Suitable results are not given by the goodness of fit for the validation of the model (Henseler et al., 2015). Through the use of simulated data with the PLS path models, model validation cannot be determined by goodness of fit. In this research, the initial step involves the evaluation of the outer model i.e. measurement model and the final step is the inner model evaluation i.e. structural model.

Figure 1: Measurement Model Certain measures are involved in the assent of the outer model as depicted in Figure 1. These measures involve the reliability of individual items, reliability of internal consistency, discriminant validity, and convergent validity (Hair et al., 2016; Henseler et al., 2015). Hair et al. (2014) suggested that the reliability of every item is explained by the reliability of the individual item. *Corresponding author (A. Tripathi). Tel: +966-530136562 Email: a.tripathi@uoh.edu.sa ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9R http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9R.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.180

Therefore, the outer loadings of every construct have been determined to evaluate the reliability of individual items (Hair et al., 2014). Table 1: Outer loading Variable Application-specific standard product (ASSP)

Business Sector Support Program (BSSP)

Limited Time Offer (LTO) Operational Performance (OP)

Social Sustainability Orientation (SSOR)

ASSP1 ASSP2 ASSP3 ASSP4 ASSP5 ASSP6 ASSP7 BSSP1 BSSP2 BSSP4 BSSP5 BSSP6 LTO1 LTO2 OP1 OP2 OP3 SSOR1 SSOR2 SSOR3 SSOR4 SSOR5 SSOR6 SSOR7

ASSP 0.853 0.919 0.895 0.911 0.866 0.824 0.865

BSSP

LTO

SSOR

0.835 0.779 0.879 0.869 0.867 0.919 0.914 0.924 0.904 0.898 0.887 0.889 0.892 0.878 0.916 0.877 0.879

Different cases have been provided in literature in which weak outer loadings are obtained (Davcik & Sharma, 2016). The items with a value in the range 0.4-0.7 need to be excluded for improving the composite reliability and AVE. These values should be greater than the standard value. The level with which the same concept is measured by a specific scale item is referred to as reliability of internal consistency. To determine the reliability of internal consistency, the coefficient of composite reliability has been estimated because composite reliability (CR) has benefits over Cronbach’s alpha. Composite reliability gives less biased estimates of reliability, compared with the coefficient of Cronbach’s alpha. Another reason, CR is the over or underestimation of reliability in Cronbach’s alpha. Alternatively, the occurrence of various loadings for indicators is considered by CR. The individual loading of every item is signified in CR along with their contribution. It also determines the correlation of the same variable with other measures. For every latent variable, convergent validity has been determined by examining the average variance extract (AVE). Table 2 shows all reliabilities are more than 0.7 thresholds. Table 2: Reliability Variable ASSP BSSP LTO OP SSOR

Abhishek Tripathi

Cronbach's Alpha 0.950 0.900 0.810 0.895 0.955

rho_A 0.951 0.902 0.810 0.902 0.956

CR 0.959 0.926 0.913 0.934 0.963

AVE 0.769 0.716 0.840 0.825 0.789

The extent to which a specific variable is different from other unobserved variables is shown by discriminant validity (Hair et al., 2016). Therefore, the discriminant validity has been examined through the use of AVE and cross-loadings criterion (Tzempelikos & Gounaris, 2017). The discriminant validity is determined when the AVE square root is high than the correlation of unobserved variables. Table 3 indicates the discriminant validity is sufficient. Table 3: Validity. Variable ASSP BSSP LTO OP SSOR

ASSP 0.899 0.826 0.843 0.885 0.829

BSSP

LTO

SSOR

0.896 0.749 0.787 0.835

0.017 0.832 0.726

0.909 0.735

0.888

Figure 2: Structural Model. To determine the path coefficient significant, the method of bootstrapping has been used in this research with a sample of 5000 and 134 cases (Hair et al., 2016; Henseler et al., 2015). It is essential to use the bootstrapping method in PLS because of the non-normality distribution of data (Hair et al., 2014). Moreover, better standard error estimates are provided by the process of bootstrapping. The path coefficients have been explained as the strength of the relationship between the endogenous and exogenous variables and the hypothesized relationships. Table 4: Direct and moderation results. Mediation ASSP  OP BSSP  OP LTO  ASSP LTO  BSSP Moderating Effect 1  BSSP Moderating Effect 2  ASSP SSOR  ASSP SSOR  BSSP

(O) 0.315 0.326 0.105 0.536 -0.001 0.015 0.870 0.499

Mean 0.325 0.320 0.110 0.529 -0.002 0.016 0.865 0.505

SD 0.160 0.158 0.042 0.057 0.022 0.017 0.034 0.044

T Statistics 1.972 2.069 2.485 9.343 22.243 2.43 25.927 11.366

p-values 0.024 0.019 0.006 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001

*Corresponding author (A. Tripathi). Tel: +966-530136562 Email: a.tripathi@uoh.edu.sa ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9R http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9R.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.180

For the assessment of the structural model, the criterion of R2 has been used in PLS-SEM. This criterion is also known as the coefficient of determination. It is suggested by Hair, Hult &Sarstedt (2016) that the greater the value of R2 , the higher is the percentage change of endogenous variables explained by the exogenous variables (Hair et al., 2017). The range of R 2 is 0-1. The closer the value to 1, the higher is the predictive power and the closer the value to 0, the weaker is the predictive power of explanatory variables. Table 5: R-square Variable ASSP BSSP OP

R2 0.869 0.873 0.376

To determine the predictive relevance of the research model, the measure of Q2 has been used in this study (Hair et al., 2017; Jaafar et al., 2015). When its value lies above 0, it shows the predictive relevance of the model and there is no predictive relevance when the value is below zero.

Figure 3: Blindfolding Table 6 shows the results of blindfolding. However, the values of Q2 have been represented in Table 6 for all the explanatory variables. The result shows that the value of Q2 is greater than 0, suggesting that the model has predictive relevance (Henseler et al., 2015). Table 6: Blindfolding Variable ASSP BSSP LTO OP SSOR

Abhishek Tripathi

SSO 1,519.000 1,085.000 434.000 651.000 1,519.000

SSE 565.199 445.814 434.000 462.020 1,519.000

QÂ˛ (=1-SSE/SSO) 0.628 0.589 0.290

All the studied research hypotheses are accepted with the significant impact of organizational performance.

5. CONCLUSION Several insights have been provided for the relationship of LTO, the orientation of social sustainability, operational performance and various practices of SSSC. To answer the study's first research question, the results support the findings of Mani and Gunasekaran (2018) in which the adoption of SSSC practices (basic and advanced) is based on the orientation of social sustainability. The results of the study are different from the previous researches in different ways. Operational performance cannot be improved through the implementation of basic SSSC practices, which is in contrast with the findings of Lindgreen et al. (2016) and Stevens and Johnson (2016). According to these researchers, the overall performance of the firm is improved through the use of basic practices. This study does not support the use of management and monitoring systems to improve the innovation process (Hafeez et al., 2018). Innovation can be suppressed by basic practices in this way. The operational outcomes can be improved through the use of advanced SSSC practices. Moreover, it influences the operational performance positively. The results are consistent with the previous research, which supports that change in product design and the process can result in improved learning for the organization. The firm can achieve improvements in performance, which are long term. In this research, the specific practices and their influence created on the operational performance have been defined, which makes it different from the previous researches. The use of advanced SSSC practices needs coordination and improved strategic planning in the supply chain. The operational outcomes of the firm can improve as well (Šuligoj & Štrukelj, 2017; Hameed et al., 2018). This influence is strong for the organizations, which have high LTO and weak for those having low LTO (Bansal & Song, 2017). When there is LTO, it supports in creating benefits of sustainability orientation. The findings of existing studies related to the influence of LTO on performance are supported by the results of the study (Flammer & Bansal, 2017; Klassen & Hajmohammad, 2017). It has been shown in this research that different levels of LTO can influence the association between operational performance and sustainability orientation. The advanced SSSC practices can be improved through LTO that can support firms to get long-term advantages (Flammer & Bansal, 2017). It has been revealed by the findings that LTO and higher orientation of social sustainability enable the firms to implement basic practices at higher levels. Previous studies supported this finding of the expected influence of LTO in the adoption of advanced practices (Mani et al., 2016). For the first research question, the operational performance is not significantly improved by basic practices. It is indicated by the LTO influence on the adoption of basic practices that these are the initial steps for moving on the journey of social sustainability. Higher LTO and orientation of social sustainability along with basic SSSC practices act as the basis for sustainability activities. Socially sustainable practice can result in different ways of adopting SSSC practices that can influence the firm’s operational performance. The relationship between basic and advanced SSSC practices should be further explored.

6. DATA AND MATERIAL AVAILABILITY This study data can be provided upon contacting the corresponding author.

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Abhishek Tripathi

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Šuligoj, M., & Štrukelj, T. (2017). Socially responsible enterprises for sustainable future: greening practices from Slovenia Green Economy in the Western Balkans: Towards a Sustainable Future. Emerald, 241-284 Tripathi, A. Bains, A. (2016). Key CSR Practices and Their Contribution towards Business- A Study of selected SMEs in Punjab India. Saudi Journal of Business and Management Studies, 1(2), 4350. Tzempelikos, N., & Gounaris, S. (2017). A conceptual and empirical examination of key account management orientation and its implications–the role of trust The Customer is NOT Always Right? Marketing Orientations in a Dynamic Business World. 673-681, Springer. Wamba, S. F., Gunasekaran, A., Akter, S., Ren, S. J.-f., Dubey, R., & Childe, S. J. (2017). Big data analytics and firm performance: Effects of dynamic capabilities. Journal of Business Research, 70, 356-365. Yawar, S. A., & Seuring, S. (2017). Management of social issues in supply chains: a literature review exploring social issues, actions and performance outcomes. Journal of Business Ethics, 141(3), 621-643. Dr.Abhishek Tripathi is an Assistant Professor of Department of Management and Information System at University of Hail, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. He obtained his PhD from Punjabi University, India. He focuses on Strategic Management, Merger & Acquisition, Small and Business Entrepreneurship and Corporate Social Responsibility.

Abhishek Tripathi

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A9S

HERDING BEHAVIOUR IN EMERGING MARKET: EVIDENCE FROM PAKISTAN STOCK EXCHANGE 1

Rida Imran , Amir Rafique 1

, Faheem Aslam

Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, PAKISTAN.

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 09 January 2020 Received in revised form 09 March 2020 Accepted 23 March 2020 Available online 3 April 2020

To measure the extent of fundamental and non-fundamental herding behaviour in Pakistan stock exchange for the period 2012-2017, this study takes into account the relationship between stock returns, crude oil prices and multifactor assets pricing models such as size (SMB), value (HML) and momentum (MOM) using cross-sectional absolute dispersion Keywords: (CSAD) of return for 67 non-financial firms. The study finds that there is Stock returns; evidence of non-fundamental herding and herding during political Fundamental factors; Non-fundamental factors; turbulence, but investors do not herd during a downward moment of oil prices. Financial momentum; Cross sectional absolute dispersion CSAD, Nonfinancial firms..

1. INTRODUCTION In financial markets, herding behaviour is explained as peer influence on people to adopt certain actions. These actions are theirs believes, how they perceive forecast and principles on which they base their actions. When a group of people mimics each other, they form a group that leads towards a correlation in the pricing of the asset. Herding prevails when many investors have different information and make certain decisions based on that information. Furthermore, the literature supports the notion that herding is more pronounced during the days when major news is released, which is macroeconomic or political. People tend to copy other investors who are well informed or known for their good reputation in the market, in the hope of gaining more benefit from the arising situation (Galariotis et al., 2015; 2016). Unintentional herding is common among professional traders who have the same educational and work experience, tools, techniques and indicators used for their analysis, characteristic in their trading and same political and regulatory framework (Guney et al., 2017). In a study by Guney et al. (2017) researched sample made from US mutual funds, he explained herding behaviour can help managers achieve good repute by keeping good relative performance. This study highlights the presence of both, fundamental and non-fundamental herding *Corresponding author (A.Rafique). Email: amir.rafique@comsats.edu.pk ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9S http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9S.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.181

behaviour during the period of a falling market, unforeseen emergency and moment of oil prices in the international markets. This study suggests that investors herd differently under different market conditions that include oil price fluctuation, trends in the market, uncertainty, and crisis. The study also documents the effects of oil price fluctuations especially slump of 2014 to 2016 on the stock market. This is the most prolonged slump in the history of the oil world lasting for almost two years when oil prices started dropping on June 23, 2014 from a high of $23/barrel to $24/barrel on Jan. 18, 2016. Previously recorded slumps were in 1986 and 2008 but they were very short-lived, and prices recovered within six months. It is considered that there is a negative association between oil prices and stock market prices in the oil trading nations (Siddiqui et al., 2019).

2. LITERATURE REVIEW Most recent studies claim that the attitude of the speculator is not to look at the maximum returns and risk intensities as explained and assumed by the portfolio theory. Speculators are generally eyeing for a potential bullish trend with downside security. They look for consistency in return, so choose to make decisions that maintain future financial flexibility. Market investors often rely on their other investors to make investment decisions, which may explain the misrepresentations in the market. The Behavioural Finance theory emerged with the assumption of the effective business hypothesis of financial market members through governance-based study and decision-making practices. Bondt & Thaler (1995) and Zhang & Zheng (2015) studied the theory of behavioural finance and termed it as "simple, broad-minded funding". They did not agree with the idea of market efficiency and beyond. Kahneman (1979) inspects the postulate of ordinary utility, which additionally helps in avoiding risks, and cannot be predicted by simply giving examples that the assumption is true and accurate. There is a need for a model that, through analysing the definition in the responsible market and the deficit foresees a greater benefit decision that needs an ideal model to represent the conclusion made under state of vulnerability, social and market transparency. Also, the financial world is very complex where defining herding is not an easy task as individuals try to distinguish herding from normal behaviour in the market. Herding can be of different sorts, such as intentional and unintentional herding (Devenow & Welch, 1996). They identified various forms of concentration when analysing the effects of various research studies on herding behaviour in financial literature. They acknowledged different kinds of motivations like payoff externalities, bank runs, liquidity in market and evidence about acquirement. Keeping in view the discussion of herding, Kremer & Nautz (2013) recognized three types of herding; the unintentional, intentional and spurious herding. According to them, the first is fundamental herding driven because nearly all institutions receive the same private information and therefore examine the same factors that lead them to a similar conclusion for each stock. Intentional herding has been described as being more sediment-driven as other market participants are being actively copied by traders, resulting in trading the same stocks regardless of any data revealing about them or previous information. That is why asset prices do not represent reliable and fundamental data, leading to extreme exacerbation of market volatility and destabilization. Furthermore, an examination question is whether sure worldwide intermediaries of market strain can clarify the development of herd and anti-herd behaviour in the market. Balcilar et al.

Rida Imran, Amir Rafique, Faheem Aslam

(2014); Balcilar & Demirer (2015; Philippas et al. (2013; Wang et al. (2013; Yao et al. (2013) contributed towards the understanding of herding behaviour of the investors during oil prices fluctuations. If one can recognize such worldwide intermediaries of market stress that fundamentally impact financial specialists' conduct, especially in developing markets, at that point controllers in those nations can concentrate on those stress intermediaries to create wellbeing nets and turn off switches. This can assist in anticipation of destabilization impacts of speculator herding as herd conduct assumes a job in influencing market unpredictability and price disorganization. Wang et al. (2013) claim that 20-30% fluctuation in the stock returns is the result of oil price jolts. Their study further explained that oil price shocks contribute as much as oil importance in the economy of the country. Depending on the country trade of oil, high volatility of oil prices, depending on its direction, improves or damages the equity price (IndÄ rs et al., 2019). Besides, studies reveal that during the period of stressful market conditions, highly volatile market, news release or fluctuation, herding behaviour in the investors is quite prominent. When the market is under stress there prevails aggregated irrationality. This exponentially increases instability in the market and the whole system becomes vulnerable and fragile (Bikhchandani & Sharma, 2001). Portfolio management also gets hurt because of this unusual behaviour in the market. All these actions trigger a chain reaction that elevates inefficiency, instability and fragility generating a financial crisis during market turbulence (Cakan et al., 2019). Hwang & Salmon (2004) claimed that herding takes place before and during the crisis, there is a flight of fundamentals in terms of volatility of returns and the level of average return.

3. HYPOTHESES DEVELOPMENT The literature backs the notion that herding in the wealth maximization sense can be rational when other participants in the market are thought to be more informed and accurate in their decisions. Although there is very little certainty that some investors might have full access to complete and accurate information. However, people mimic their investment decisions because they believe that they are more informed (Chiang & Zheng, 2010). Unintentional herding is common among professional traders who have the same educational and work experience, tools, techniques and indicators they use for their analysis, characteristic in their trading, and same political and regulatory framework (Guney et al., 2017). In emerging markets (like Pakistan), non-fundamental factors drive herding among investors because there is less informational transparency which pulls their trust from public information leading to herding. We develop the hypothesis based on the discussion: H1:

Investors exhibit herd behaviour at fundamental or non-fundamental factors.

Pakistan

stock

exchange

driven

Herding is induced by the common believes of the investors looking into fundamental information that is macroeconomic factors or news release (Institute, 2000). In 2018 Balaji et al. (2018) analysed the effect of general elections on both NSE and BSE returns in pre and postelections period compared to volatilities of the periods using data from the Indian stock market for daily closing prices of NIFTY & SENSEX index from 1998-2014. They comprehended an increase in volatility and uncertainty during the election period. Elections have a strong effect on the stock market in the short term period. Chaudhry et al. (2018) examined the effects of terrorism on the *Corresponding author (A.Rafique). Email: amir.rafique@comsats.edu.pk ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9S http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9S.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.181

stock markets of numerous South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Countries. The data included stock indices of SAARC countries, data of terrorist attacks, and earthquake data from 2000 to 2014. Terrorism produces adverse effects on the stock markets of the SAARC. They concluded that terrorism is followed by adverse effects on the stock markets of the SAARC countries and severely hurts investors and regulatory authorities. Especially in Pakistan and India it causes uncertainty on a much larger scale. Political turbulence is usually escorted by increased uncertainty and high uncertainty is followed by herding. Herding determinants, which are widely tested. Non-fundamental information is expected to back herd behaviour during political turbulence and security concern periods. Based on the discussion, we propose H2: Investors exhibit herding behaviour due to fundamental or non-fundamental factors during periods of political turbulence or terrorist attack.

Shaeri & Katircioğlu (2018) examined the relationship between crude oil prices and stock prices of oil, transport, and tech-related companies of USA listed companies to conclude crude oil fluctuations are more reflected in oil companies’ stock prices as compared to the transport and tech companies’ stocks. Chong et al. (2017) explained that herding was caused due to risk and shortterm investor horizon. They studied herding in the Chinese stock market using a nonlinear model which was based on cross-sectional absolute dispersion of return (CSAD). They found a significant herding effect during the bearish market in the service industry and bullish market in the manufacturing industry (Camara, 2017). Balcılar et al. (2017) studied herding on oil speculation in major oil-exporting countries. Their findings suggested that herding existed in the crisis period or volatility is high in the market. They found that extreme oil price moment results in herding which can be fundamental or non-fundamental. Thus, the hypothesis of this study is: H3: On days of large oil price fluctuations, investors exhibit fundamental or nonfundamental herding.

4. METHODOLOGY

4.1 TEST FOR FUNDAMENTAL/NON-FUNDAMENTAL HERDING The cross-sectional standard deviation of return (CSSD) model proposed by Christie and Huang in 1995 to examine the herding effect in the stock market will be used in the study. The main concept of this model was to calculate the dispersion of return in investment (Christie & Huang, 2006). This method tends to compare an individual stock return and overall market return but the inefficiency of the CSSD model led Chang et al. (2000) to develop cross-sectional absolute dispersion of return (CSAD) model that is based on CSSD model and CAPM. The model scrutinizes the association of market rate of return and deviation of return. CSAD is a more effective model to determine herding behaviour in the market. In its regression model, instead of using a dummy variable as in CSSD, it uses market returns and deviations. Thus, providing solid data support for pragmatic analysis of herding effect. The deviation of the return rate of stocks decreases as the market yield increases indicate that there exists certain herding. Because this model is based on rational CAPM, when the factual results lack the rational explanation of the hypothesis, it leads to the indication of some irrational factors present in the market such as herding. Crosssectional absolute dispersion measures dispersion of return expressed as a nonlinear regression model was developed to cover the market consensus during extreme fluctuation in prices

Rida Imran, Amir Rafique, Faheem Aslam

đ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??ś = đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝1 + đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝2 ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą ďż˝ + đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝3 ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą ďż˝ + đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą

(1),

where constant is denoted by đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝1 , đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝2 and đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝3 are coefficients and error term is denoted by đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą at time 2

t. ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą ďż˝ is the square of market return that captures the linearity of the relationship. If đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝2 and đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝3 are

equal to zero, then there is no herding. Herding exist if đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝3 is negative and statistically significant. The method proposed by Chang could indicate herding but could not distinguish whether it is fundamental or non-fundamental. For this purpose, we have a decomposed version by (Dang & Lin, 2016; Galariotis et al., 2015) to determine fundamental and non-fundamental variables. đ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą = đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝1 + đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝2 ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x201C;đ?&#x2018;&#x201C;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą ďż˝ + đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝3 |đ??ťđ??ťđ??ťđ??ťđ??ťđ??ťđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą | + đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝4 |đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą | + đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝5 |đ?&#x2018;&#x20AC;đ?&#x2018;&#x20AC;đ?&#x2018;&#x20AC;đ?&#x2018;&#x20AC;đ?&#x2018;&#x20AC;đ?&#x2018;&#x20AC;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą | + đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą

(2),

where, đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą represents the market return on day đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą. đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x201C;đ?&#x2018;&#x201C;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą represents a risk-free rate. HML represents a

high minus low factor. SMB represents a small minus big factor. MOM represents momentum factor and đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą represents error term at time đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą. Considering the unavailability of data on the fundamental factors for Pakistan, (Fama & French, 1993; 1995) is used to calculate HML and SMB factors while MOM is constructed in line with Carhart (1997). The risk premium, HML, SMB and MOM factors are fundamental factors while the error term is a non-fundamental factor. For measuring overall fundamental and non-fundamental, herding regression equations are 2 + đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą đ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą,đ??šđ??š = đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝1 + đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝2 ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą ďż˝ + đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝3 đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą

2 + đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą đ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą,đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; = đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝1 + đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝2 ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą ďż˝ + đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝3 đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą

(3), (4),

If non-fundamental factors drive herding behaviour, in Equation (3) đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝3 must be negative and statistically significant, while đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝3 in Equation 8 should be insignificant. H1 will be accepted if đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝3 for Equation (8) is statistically significant and negative and đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝3 in Equation 3 is insignificant. Asymmetric herding using dummy variable will be tested using 2 2 + đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝4 đ??ˇđ??ˇđ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018; ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą ďż˝ + đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝5 đ??ˇđ??ˇđ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018; đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą + đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą đ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??ś = đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝1 + đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝2 đ??ˇđ??ˇđ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą ďż˝ + đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝3 đ??ˇđ??ˇđ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą

(5).

Equation (5), đ??ˇđ??ˇđ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ = 1 when đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą is greater than 0, while đ??ˇđ??ˇđ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018; = 1 when đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą is less than 0. To

uncover the basic mechanism of herding, if there exists any herding, we test Equation (5) for both factors i.e. fundamental and non-fundamental. If coefficients of đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝4 and đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝5 are negative and statistically significant indicates herding during the up or down market. If the model calculated for non-fundamental herding, negative and statistically significant đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝5 depicts herding is due to nonfundamental factor. While insignificant đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝5 for fundamental factors model. Herding will be considered more pronounced during falling market if đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝3 is insignificant for the model calculated for non-fundamental factors.

4.2 TEST FOR TERRORISM AND POLITICAL TURBULENCE PERIOD

Data is divided into three parts. The first is political regime change from 13-24 May 2013. General elections took place in Pakistan, Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) government completed its five years, and PMLNâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Nawaz Sharif became a new prime minister. Presidential and General elections have a great impact on the stock market returns. There is uncertainty, which leads to a stressful market condition (Khan, 2015). Fluctuations in stock markets are based on news, good or bad. Elections can be good or bad news for investors because they are unsure as to what is going to happen when the next ruling party comes (Balaji et al., 2018). We will test herding for the short *Corresponding author (A.Rafique). Email: amir.rafique@comsats.edu.pk ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9S http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9S.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.181

period before and after the election. Then we will test herding for the period when Nawaz Sharif was disqualified and had to step down from the seat of prime minister. The window was created from 28 July to 10 August 2017. Another window is a 10-day window after the Peshawar massacre in 2014. Terrorist attacks negatively affect the stock market. These attacks can lead to uncertainty and chaos in the market (Ahmed, 2018; Chaudhry et al., 2018). Literature gives enough evidence that uncertainty causes herding. For that, we will check herding in the period 16-30 December 2014. For measuring the herding effect in the crisis period, the regression model is 2 + đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝4 đ??ˇđ??ˇđ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;? đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161; + đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą đ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą,đ??śđ??ś = đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝1 + đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝2 ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą ďż˝ + đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝3 đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą

(6),

where đ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą,đ??śđ??ś is the cross-sectional absolute deviation of crisis period returns. đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą In this

equation are the returns during the period of turbulence. đ??ˇđ??ˇđ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;? = 1 for the day when turbulence occurs and 0 otherwise. Statistically significant and negative đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝4 implies herd effect in the crisis period. H2 will be accepted when đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝4 is negative and statistically significant for non-fundamental components and insignificant for fundamental components.

4.3 TEST FOR OIL PRICE FLUCTUATION

Lastly, we will test the effect of oil fluctuation specifically reflecting the effect of the oil slump of 2014-2016. Previously herding is tested in a highly volatile market when oil prices are rising. This will be a new addition to the literature as herd behaviour is tested when the oil prices are decreasing. Oil price fluctuations affect transport, oil and technology sectors (Shaeri & KatircioÄ&#x;lu, 2018), which are included in our data. Following specifications will be the test of the herd effect 2 2 2 + đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝4 đ??ˇđ??ˇđ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘,2.1%đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą + đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝4 đ??ˇđ??ˇđ?&#x2018;&#x2122;đ?&#x2018;&#x2122;,2.1%đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą + đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą đ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą = đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝1 + đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝2 ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą ďż˝ + đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝3 đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą

(7).

Equation (7), days when changes in oil prices falling in the upper 2.1th percentile bracket is represented by đ??ˇđ??ˇđ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘,2.1% = 1 which is otherwise 0; a day with changes in the oil prices falling in the

lower 2.1th percentile bracket is represented by đ??ˇđ??ˇđ?&#x2018;&#x2122;đ?&#x2018;&#x2122;,2.1% = 1 which is otherwise 0. The threshold is set at the first percentile to determine the strength of the equation. During the days of extreme fluctuations in oil prices, herding in Pakistan Exchange is reflected by negative and statistically significant đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝4 coefficient when oil prices are going upward and đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝5 coefficient represents when oil prices are going downward. The negative and statistically significant value of đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝4 or đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝5 represents fundamental or non-fundamental herding. Because oil price change occurs only once a month so there are a smaller number of days for a change. So, our threshold is reduced to 2.1% to capture the market-wise effect of an oil price change and its fluctuation. This study scope is to measure herding behaviour, which can lead a group of people taking making the same decision which if under normal circumstances would not be so. This activity contributes to the mispricing of assets, which causes a rise in the bubble. This change in the market is temporary but when the bubble pops the whole market crashes. This research target tests the presence of herding in Pakistan stock exchange so that ways to eliminate herding can be devised in the future.

Rida Imran, Amir Rafique, Faheem Aslam

5. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 5.1 HERDING TOWARDS MARKET Table 1 shows the empirical result of herding towards the market from the equal-weighted estimation of Equations (3), (4), and (5). Newey-West heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent standard errors are used to estimate p-values. The significance level is set to 5%. The result shows that there is overall herding in the market. When we decompose it into fundamental and non-fundamental components, we see that the herding is due to non-fundamental components. Thus, H1 is accepted. Table 1: Fundamental/non-fundamental Herding

Total Herding P-Value Fundamental Herding P-Value Non-Fundamental Herding

P-Value

Full Sample Up Market Intercept ďż˝đ?&#x2018;šđ?&#x2018;šđ?&#x2019;&#x17D;đ?&#x2019;&#x17D;,đ?&#x2019;&#x2022;đ?&#x2019;&#x2022; ďż˝ đ?&#x2018;šđ?&#x2018;šđ?&#x;?đ?&#x;?đ?&#x2019;&#x17D;đ?&#x2019;&#x17D;,đ?&#x2019;&#x2022;đ?&#x2019;&#x2022; đ?&#x2018;šđ?&#x2018;šđ?&#x;?đ?&#x;? Intercept đ?&#x2018;Ťđ?&#x2018;Ťđ?&#x2019;&#x2013;đ?&#x2019;&#x2013; ďż˝đ?&#x2018;šđ?&#x2018;šđ?&#x2019;&#x17D;đ?&#x2019;&#x17D;,đ?&#x2019;&#x2022;đ?&#x2019;&#x2022; ďż˝ 0.013 0.433 -8.658 0.194 .0127 0.471 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 0.015 0.003 -0.200 0.230 -0.002 0.460 <0.001 0.475 0.111 <0.001 <0.001 -0.002 0.423 -8.461 0.187 0.015 0.011 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 0.032

Down Market đ?&#x2018;Ťđ?&#x2018;Ťđ?&#x2019;&#x2013;đ?&#x2019;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;šđ?&#x2018;šđ?&#x;?đ?&#x;?đ?&#x2019;&#x17D;đ?&#x2019;&#x17D;,đ?&#x2019;&#x2022;đ?&#x2019;&#x2022; đ?&#x2018;Ťđ?&#x2018;Ťđ?&#x2019;&#x2026;đ?&#x2019;&#x2026; ďż˝đ?&#x2018;šđ?&#x2018;šđ?&#x2019;&#x17D;đ?&#x2019;&#x17D;,đ?&#x2019;&#x2022;đ?&#x2019;&#x2022; ďż˝ đ?&#x2018;Ťđ?&#x2018;Ťđ?&#x2019;&#x2026;đ?&#x2019;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;šđ?&#x2018;šđ?&#x;?đ?&#x;?đ?&#x2019;&#x17D;đ?&#x2019;&#x17D;,đ?&#x2019;&#x2022;đ?&#x2019;&#x2022; đ?&#x2018;šđ?&#x2018;šđ?&#x;?đ?&#x;? -8.330 0.313 -6.009 0.209 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 -8.552 0.321 -6.112 0.212 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 -0.377 -0.011 0.166 0.024 0.060 0.021 0.261

5.2 TEST FOR CRISIS AND POLITICAL TURBULENCE PERIOD Table 2 represents the results of Equation (6). Test show no overall herding during 2013 elections but when the decomposed results of fundamental and non-fundamental equations are analysed, fundamental herding is detected while no non-fundamental herding was detected. Similarly during terrorist activity in 2014 no overall and fundamental herding was reported, but there was non-fundamental herding. Newey-West heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent standard errors are used to estimate p-values. The significance level is set to 5%. When we analysed results for disqualification of Nawaz Shareef (2017), there were no signs of overall herding but when we decomposed equation and detected non-fundamental herding. Therefore, we accept hypothesis 2. Table 2: Herding Under Crisis. Intercept Total Herding Election 2013 P-Value Terrorist Attack P-Value Disqualification P-Value Non-Fundamental Election 2013 P-Value Terrorist Attack P-Value Disqualification P-Value Fundamental Election 2013 P-Value Terrorist Attack P-Value Disqualification P-Value

ďż˝đ?&#x2018;šđ?&#x2018;šđ?&#x2019;&#x17D;đ?&#x2019;&#x17D;,đ?&#x2019;&#x2022;đ?&#x2019;&#x2022; ďż˝

đ?&#x2018;šđ?&#x2018;šđ?&#x;?đ?&#x;?đ?&#x2019;&#x17D;đ?&#x2019;&#x17D;,đ?&#x2019;&#x2022;đ?&#x2019;&#x2022;

đ?&#x2018;Ťđ?&#x2018;Ťđ?&#x2019;&#x2020;đ?&#x2019;&#x2020; đ?&#x2018;šđ?&#x2018;šđ?&#x;?đ?&#x;?đ?&#x2019;&#x17D;đ?&#x2019;&#x17D;,đ?&#x2019;&#x2022;đ?&#x2019;&#x2022;

đ?&#x2018;šđ?&#x2018;šđ?&#x;?đ?&#x;?

0.015 <0.001 0.017 <0.001 0.017 <0.001

1.195 0.075 -1.002 0.080 -0.946 0.070

-66.342 0.152 98.277 0.049 69.313 0.070

0.001 -0.023 -53.980 0.051 226.21 <0.001

0.207

-0.001 -0.50 0.001 0.548 -0.002 -2.05

-0.284 -0.65 -0.941 0.083 0.315 1.33

30.176 1.08 99.859 0.036 -12.931 -0.94

0.00 -61.035 0.025 63.831 3.72

0.285

0.015 <0.001 0.016 <0.001 0.0183 <0.001

1.479 0.016 -0.061 0.772 -1.261 0.016

-96.519 0.025 -1.590 0.919 82.244 0.014

0.00 7.055 0.375 162.38 <0.001

0.310

0.442 0.697

0.378 0.249

0.432 0.650

*Corresponding author (A.Rafique). Email: amir.rafique@comsats.edu.pk ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9S http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9S.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.181

5.3 TEST FOR OIL PRICE FLUCTUATION Table 3 shows the results of estimating Equation (7). There is the only downward movement of oil during the said period there is no evidence of herding in regards to the downward movement of oil prices. Neither on the bases of fundamental nor non-fundamental factors. Thus, H3 is not accepted, as the result does not signify any herding during days with the downward movement of oil. Newey-West heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent standard errors are used to estimate p-values. The significance level is set to 5%. Table 3: Oil Price Herding Total Herding At 2.1 Percentile P-Value Fundamental At 2.1 Percentile P-Value Non-Fundamental At 2.1 Percentile P-Value

Intercept 0.013 <0.001 0.015 <0.001 -0.002 <0.001

ďż˝đ?&#x2018;šđ?&#x2018;šđ?&#x2019;&#x17D;đ?&#x2019;&#x17D;,đ?&#x2019;&#x2022;đ?&#x2019;&#x2022; ďż˝ 0.436 <0.001 0.003 0.496 0.421 <0.001

đ?&#x2018;šđ?&#x2018;šđ?&#x;?đ?&#x;?đ?&#x2019;&#x17D;đ?&#x2019;&#x17D;,đ?&#x2019;&#x2022;đ?&#x2019;&#x2022; -8.884 <0.001 -0.197 0.190 -8.312 <0.001

đ?&#x2018;Ťđ?&#x2018;Ťđ?&#x2018;Ťđ?&#x2018;Ťđ?&#x2018;Ťđ?&#x2018;Ťđ?&#x;?đ?&#x;?đ?&#x2019;&#x17D;đ?&#x2019;&#x17D;,đ?&#x2019;&#x2022;đ?&#x2019;&#x2022; 3.388 0.507 0.069 0.798 -0.854 0.169

đ?&#x2018;šđ?&#x2018;šđ?&#x;?đ?&#x;? 0.184 0.024 0.186

Table 4: Summary of Empirical Results Events Overall Elections 2013 Terrorist attack 2014 Disqualification 2017 Oil prices

Total herding Yes No No No No

Fundamental No Yes No No No

Non-fundamental Yes No Yes Yes No

6. CONCLUSION Overall Pakistan stock exchange manifests herding. We also found empirical evidence of herding during political turbulence and period of terrorism. Therefore, hypothesis 1 and 2 are accepted. Table 4 illustrates a summary of the results. The non-fundamental factors drive herding in the market. This study determines herding during the up and down market though it was not a part of our study; it gives a clear picture and understanding of herding. Therefore, herding during down markets is more visible and it is merely due to non-fundamental factors. Investors do not exhibit herding during the down market, as it does not trigger any stress in the market. Fundamental herding was during the general election period of 2013 observed while no overall herding and nonfundamental herding was determined. However, when the news of disqualification and termination uproar in the microenvironment, non-fundamental herding was observed. However, we did not observe herding behaviour during a downward moment of oil prices. In addition, the 2013 election period was a regime switch from Asif Ali Zardari of Pakistan Peopleâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Party (PPP) to Nawaz Shareef of Pakistan Muslim League-N (PMLN). People were quite aware of the whole situation and PPP had served its 5 years so there was no such political stress environment. However, the new government has new sets of policies and new ways of governing. That is in favor of few and opposed by others. So people herd on fundamental factors. Our data period is the era of oil price slump and we have observed the absence of herding behaviour. Because oil prices are significantly decreasing. Pakistan is an importer of oil and Pakistan's government policies are to regulate oil prices. However, this oil slump was so significant that oil prices in Pakistan dropped significantly. Therefore, we see non-herding during this period and hypothesis 3 is rejected.

Rida Imran, Amir Rafique, Faheem Aslam

In contrast, we see non-fundamental herding while Nawaz Shareef termination. Investors got a hint of uncertainty. In this situation investors herd without referring to fundamentals. Similarly, when the massacre of APS School occurred in 2014, there was again a stress full condition in the market and participants of the market blindly followed each other due to panic. Therefore, we see non-fundamental herding at large but lack of fundamental and overall herding.

7. DATA AND MATERIAL AVAILABILITY This study data can be provided upon contacting the corresponding author.

8. REFERENCES Ahmed, J. (2018). The impact of major terrorist attacks on stock prices : the case of Karachi Stock Exchange. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 8(3), 394–405. DOI: 10.18488/journal.aefr.2018.83.394.405 Balcilar, M., & Demirer, R. (2015). Effect of Global Shocks and Volatility on Herd Behavior in an Emerging Market : Evidence from Borsa Istanbul. DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2015.1011520 Balcilar, M., Demirer, R., & Hammoudeh, S. (2014). What drives herding in oil-rich, developing stock markets? Relative roles of own volatility and global factors. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 29, 418–440. DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2014.06.009 Balcılar, M., Demirer, R., & Ulussever, T. (2017). Does speculation in the oil market drive investor herding in emerging stock markets? Energy Economics, 65, 50–63. DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2017.04.031 Bondt, W. F. M. De, & Thaler, R. H. (1995). Chapter 13 Financial Decision-Making in Markets and Firms : A Behavioral Perspective. 9, 385–410. Cakan, E., Demirer, R., Gupta, R., & Marfatia, H. A. (2019). Oil speculation and herding behavior in emerging stock markets. Journal of Economics and Finance, 43(1), 44–56. DOI: 10.1007/s12197-018-9427-0 Camara, O. (2017). Industry herd behaviour in financing decision making. Journal of Economics and Business, 94, 32–42. DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2017.08.001 Chaudhry, N., et al. (2018). Impact of terrorism on stock markets: empirical evidence from the SAARC region. Finance Research Letters. DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2018.02.024 Chong, T. T. L., Liu, X., & Zhu, C. (2017). What Explains Herd Behavior in the Chinese Stock Market? Journal of Behavioral Finance, 18(4), 448–456. DOI: 10.1080/15427560.2017.1365365 Christie, W. G., & Huang, R. D. (2006). Following the Pied Piper: Do Individual Returns Herd around the Market? Financial Analysts Journal, 51(4), 31–37. DOI: 10.2469/faj.v51.n4.1918 Dang, H. V., & Lin, M. (2016). Herd mentality in the stock market: On the role of idiosyncratic participants with heterogeneous information. International Review of Financial Analysis, 48, 247–260. DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2016.10.005 Devenow, A., & Welch, I. (1996). Rational herding in financial economics. 40, 603–615. Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1993). Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds. Journal of Financial Economics, 33, 3–56. Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1995). American Finance Association Size and Book-to-Market Factors in Earnings and Returns Size and Book-to-Market Factors in Earnings and Returns. Source: The Journal of Finance Journal of Finance, 50(1), 131–155. DOI: 10.1080/00032710500210626 *Corresponding author (A.Rafique). Email: amir.rafique@comsats.edu.pk ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9S http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9S.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.181

Galariotis, E. C., Krokida, S. I., & Spyrou, S. I. (2016). Herd behavior and equity market liquidity: Evidence from major markets. International Review of Financial Analysis, 48, 140–149. DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2016.09.013 Galariotis, E. C., Rong, W., & Spyrou, S. I. (2015). Herding on fundamental information: A comparative study. Journal of Banking and Finance, 50(March), 589–598. DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.03.014 Guney, Y., Kallinterakis, V., & Komba, G. (2017). Herding in frontier markets: Evidence from African stock exchanges. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 47, 152– 175. DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2016.11.001 Hwang, S., & Salmon, M. (2004). Market stress and herding. Journal of Empirical Finance, 11(4), 585– 616. DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2004.04.003 Indārs, E. R., Savin, A., & Lublóy, Á. (2018). Herding behaviour in an emerging market: Evidence from the Moscow Exchange. Emerging Markets Review, 38, 468–487. DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2018.12.002 Kremer, S., & Nautz, D. (2013). Causes and consequences of short-term institutional herding. Journal of Banking and Finance, 37(5), 1676–1686. DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2012.12.006 Philippas, N., Economou, F., Babalos, V., & Kostakis, A. (2013). International Review of Financial Analysis Herding behavior in REITs : Novel tests and the role of fi nancial crisis. International Review of Financial Analysis, 29, 166–174. DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2013.01.004 Shaeri, K., & Katircioğlu, S. (2018). The nexus between oil prices and stock prices of oil , technology and transportation companies under multiple regime shifts. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 31(1), 1–22. DOI: 10.1080/1331677X.2018.1426472 Siddiqui, A., Mahmood, H., & Margaritis, D. (2019). Oil Prices and Stock Markets during the 2014-16 Oil Price Slump: Asymmetries and Speed of Adjustment in GCC and Oil-Importing Countries. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade. DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2019.1570497 Wang, Y., Wu, C., & Yang, L. (2013). Oil price shocks and stock market activities : Evidence from oilimporting and oil-exporting countries. Journal of Comparative Economics, 41(4), 1220–1239. DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2012.12.004 Yao, J., Ma, C., & He, W. P. (2013). Investor herding behaviour of Chinese stock market. International Review of Economics and Finance. DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2013.03.002 Zhang, Y., & Zheng, X. (2015). A STUDY OF THE INVESTMENT BEHAVIOR BASED ON BEHAVIORAL FINANCE. 10(1). Rida Imran is a student of MBA (Finance) at the Department of Management Sciences, Comsats University Islamabad, Pakistan. She got her BBA (Hons.) degree from Comsats University, Islamabad. Her work mainly focuses on Herding behavior in stock market of Pakistan. She likes to stay in touch with new advancements in Finance.

Dr. Faheem Aslam is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Management Sciences, Comsats University Islamabad, Pakistan. He got his BBA (Hons.) and MBA (Finance) from International Islamic University, Islamabad. He earned his master’s and Ph.D. Degrees from Hanyang University Business School, Seoul, South Korea. He deeply invests in creative and innovative research ideas related to Financial Analytics, Data Mining, Artificial Intelligence, and Data Sciences.

Rida Imran, Amir Rafique, Faheem Aslam

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A9T

A PROTECTION SHIELD AGAINST ELECTROMAGNETIC FIELDS OF TRANSFORMER SUBSTATIONS IN RAIL TRANSPORT 1*

Gennady Bilenko , Evgenii Novikov , Valery Ridel , Anton Chekhov , Mikhail Rybin

Department of Transportation Management, Russian University of Transport (MIIT), RUSSIA. Department of Electrification and Power Supply, Russian University of Transport (MIIT), RUSSIA. 3 Department of Transportation Infrastructure Management Systems, Russian University of Transport (MIIT), RUSSIA. 2

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Article history: Received 14 January 2020 Received in revised form 06 March 2020 Accepted 28 March 2020 Available online 09 April 2020

This paper presents characteristics of electromagnetic fields that arise from the generation and affect railroad workers. Besides, radiofrequency electromagnetic fields, there is human exposure to electromagnetic fields that are being generated by utility frequency power transformers. The high voltages and high currents of the transformer substations are sources of strong electromagnetic fields on railroad. For this reason, the analysis has been conducted on protective properties of a new shield design and suggested a design of a multilayer electromagnetic shield to protect the workers and automatic equipment for the railroad industry from exposure to utility frequency fields.

Keywords: Utility frequency fields; Electromagnetic shield; Shielding wall; Transformer; Multilayer electromagnetic shield (MES); Shielding coefficient (attenuation).

Disciplinary: Transportation Electromagnetic Engineering.

Infrastructure

Management,

1. INTRODUCTION Electrical installations of transformer substations (TS), including traction ones are a powerful source of electromagnetic fields (EMFs), as they change voltage from one level to another at a sufficiently high-current load. Today, in fact, a source of biological hazard is three-phase sources of the utility frequency (UF) 50 Hz that produces electromagnetic induction (for example [1, 2]). It is a common fact that a hygienic evaluation of the electromagnetic field of utility frequency (50 Hz) is done separately, according to the electric field strength (E) in kV/m and the magnetic field strength (H) in A/m (or magnetic field induction (B) in μT). A load irregularity over time and its nature leads to the current harmonics and voltage harmonics *Corresponding author (G. Bilenko). Email: genbilenko@mail.ru ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9T http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9T.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.182

in the chains, which are the sources of electromagnetic influence on the workers and the automatic equipment for the railroad industry in a wide frequency range from 0 Hz to units of kilohertz, including the utility frequency 50 Hz. Figure 1 shows a spectrum of the electric field (EF) intensity in a transformer substation room, and Figure 2 shows the change in the EF intensity over time [3].

Figure 1: The spectrum of the EF intensity in the transformer substation room.

Figure 1: The change in the EF intensity over time. As noted above, here arises a problem with the shielding of power transformers at the transformer substations. In addition, the multilayer shields are the most effective shielding for that [4-6].

2. RESEARCH METHOD Generally, the shielding attenuation coefficient of radiofrequency electromagnetic fields for the electromagnetic fields of utility frequency is defined as [7]:

Gennady Bilenko, Evgenii Novikov, Valery Ridel, Anton Chekhov , Mikhail Rybin

đ??¸đ??¸

đ??´đ??´đ??¸đ??¸ = 20 log 0 đ??¸đ??¸

đ??´đ??´

đ??ťđ??ť

đ??´đ??´đ??ťđ??ť = 20 log đ??ťđ??ť0

đ??´đ??´

(1), (2),

where đ??´đ??´đ??¸đ??¸ is the shielding coefficient (attenuation) for the electric component of the electromagnetic field, dB đ??´đ??´đ??ťđ??ť is the shielding coefficient (attenuation) for the magnetic component of the electromagnetic field, dB, đ??¸đ??¸0 is the electric intensity of the electromagnetic field at the measurement point when the shield is absent, V/m, đ??¸đ??¸đ??´đ??´ is the electric intensity of the electromagnetic field at the measurement point when the shield is present, V/m đ??ťđ??ť0 is the magnetic intensity of the electromagnetic field at the measurement point when the shield is absent, A/m; đ??ťđ??ťđ??´đ??´ is the electric intensity of the electromagnetic field at the measurement point when the shield is present, A/m. Quite often, we can calculate quantitative characteristics for the protection properties of electromagnetic shields. In some cases, calculation methods give more reliable results, especially in relation to ultra-low frequency ranges that may have significant measurement errors. In addition, we need to consider conductivity of component materials for complex shielding systems as well as modern composite materials. Power attenuation of the electromagnetic wave Đ&#x161;Đľ is defined as

Ke =

(n + 1) + c z ďŁŤ z â&#x2039;&#x2026; c â&#x2039;&#x2026;Ď&#x2030; â&#x2039;&#x2026; x ďŁś exp ďŁŹ ďŁˇ c 4n ďŁ ďŁ¸

(3),

where n is refraction coefficient of the material, Ď&#x2021; is the coefficient that determines the wave attenuation rate, Ď&#x2030; is the cyclic radiation frequency, x is the sample thickness, z is the coefficient the corrects attenuation when there is the protection shield consisting of two materials. z=

Ď&#x192;1 Ď&#x192;2

*Corresponding author (G. Bilenko). Email: genbilenko@mail.ru ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9T http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9T.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.182

(4),

where Ď&#x192;1 is the material conductivity 1, Ď&#x192;2 is the material conductivity 2. z = 1 if we use only one material. If the wave attenuates, the reflection coefficient Ke is given as Đ&#x161;Đľ =

(n - 1) 2 + Ď&#x2021; z (n + 1) 2 + Ď&#x2021; z

(5),

The magnitude of the extinction coefficient Ď&#x2021; and the magnitude of refraction coefficient of the material n are determined in relation Ď&#x2021;=

Îľ 'â&#x2C6;&#x2019; Îľ ' 2 +Îľ ' ' 2 2

(6),

Îľ '+ Îľ ' 2 +Îľ ' ' 2 2

(7),

where Îľ' is the real part of the complex dielectric constant Îľ'' is the imaginary part of the complex dielectric constant đ?&#x153;&#x201D;đ?&#x153;&#x201D; = đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x153;&#x20AC; + đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;(4đ?&#x153;&#x17D;đ?&#x153;&#x17D;ďż˝đ?&#x153;&#x201D;đ?&#x153;&#x201D;)

(8),

where Ď&#x192; is the electrical conductivity of the material Ď&#x2030; is the cyclic radiation frequency To determine the frequency and amplitude dependence of the shielding coefficients for various materials in laboratory conditions requires special equipment such as wideband voltage generators and time-consuming work. The most acceptable way is to determine the spectrum of the shielding field before and after the shield and to obtain changes in the field amplitudes at the frequency with the necessary step of its change (frequency).

3. RESULT AND DISCUSSION Next, we have examined the design of the multilayer electromagnetic shield (MES) for built in and built on transformer substations. The shielding principles were developed, tested, and confirmed by measurements. They are being used to protect the human and the equipment against exposure to the electromagnetic fields induced by the equipment of transformer substations at the high-current load (up to 3500 A) [8]. Such MESs were tested out on the influence of long-duration electromagnetic pulses (EMPs) with a front rise-time up to 7 ns. The MES attenuates the level of acoustic noise produced by power

Gennady Bilenko, Evgenii Novikov, Valery Ridel, Anton Chekhov , Mikhail Rybin

transformers within the range of 8 to 12 dB. The reviewed MES converts and suppresses the electromagnetic fields of the utility frequency compared to single layer shields that are still being in practice. The MES design provides acceptable stabilization for the background level of the magnetic field in the protected rooms when the induction intensity increases as the transformer is overloaded. Sheets of the electromagnetic shield that are covered with protection coating and transition frequency decrease in the metal sheets through the dew point as a result of its heating by the magnetic field decrease a velocity of electrochemical and biological corrosion processes. That way an expected operational life of the MES is at least 25 years [8]. The basic design of the MES (Fig. 3) consists of three shielding layers. The first and third layers were made from the sheets of isotropic electrical steel with a 1 mm thickness. There is a double layer lattice placed between the sheets and made from a metal rectangular pipe 80 × 40 mm (with 2 mm wall thickness). Besides, there cells that play the role of a waveguide below cut-off. The lattice cells suppress the vertical components of the magnetic field that have passed from the 1st layer of magnetic fields. Thus, “the lattice, the 3rd layer of the MES” is in space and works as the waveguide mechanism. It is expected that the lattice weakens only a component of the linearly polarized magnetic field. The third layer should suppress this magnetic field to an intended safe level in the protected premises.

Figure 3: The design of the multilayer electromagnetic shield: 1 and 2 - steel sheets, 3 - an example of an overlap side and end joints of steel sheets during their installation, 4 - bar guide pipes (and tie bars between them), 5 - gap between sheets, 6 - continuous welded seam. Gap between sheets - thickness of the bar guide pipe 4 (50-100 mm). *Corresponding author (G. Bilenko). Email: genbilenko@mail.ru ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9T http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9T.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.182

The ferromagnetic metal of electrical steel sheets and the lattice pipes absorb the energy of the shielded magnetic field, heat the shield elements, and increase the MES shielding efficiency. Namely, it is a result of swirling effect, hysteresis loop and magnetization reversal process. The magnetization reversal energy losses are proportional to the area of the hysteresis loop and the magnetic field of the metal shield elements. Shielding effectiveness depends on shape of the shields. Considering the shielding effectiveness level of an internal source, let us compare widely used shields that have regular shapes without gaps, such as a cube, a cylinder, and a sphere. Let us say the effectiveness of shield that has the shape of cube (rectangle) set to 1, then the shielding effectiveness of shield that has the shape of cylinder will be more than twice as high as the shield with the rectangle shape. Even more, if the shield has the shape of sphere (ball), then its shielding effectiveness will be 3 times higher than the rectangular shield can provide. The shielding efficiency of the two-layer shield with the gap that was made from the steel sheets is almost four times higher than the efficiency of the two-layer shield without the gap, and it is four times less in metal mass at the same efficiency value. Figure 4 shows the experimental characteristic that has intended for the optimal choice of the gap d at the proposed MES depending on the size of the first layer D.

Figure 4: Dependence of the mutual inductance Mp (H /m2) and the capacity Cp (F/m2) from the ratio of the gap size d to the length of the current flowing along the straight part D of the shield layers 1 and 2 (d/D). Figure 5 shows how to mount a shield on (inside view). Outside there are a layer of metal and the bar guide pipes 4 (as in Figure 3). The internal shield is not installed. Figure 5, there is not any shield in a picture as it should be mounted before the transformer will be installed. There is no train in the picture as well. The transformer substations to supply power for consumers and railroads are not installed near the rails, they usually installed in places that are the most suitable for the consumers. The railroad system requires shield walls because there are the high voltages and currents as well as a very high interference level.

Gennady Bilenko, Evgenii Novikov, Valery Ridel, Anton Chekhov , Mikhail Rybin

Figure 5: Mounting the multilayer shield.

4. CONCLUSION A need for the TS shielding is caused by growing problems of increasing their power, negative effects on human and equipment created by the magnetic field induction, rapid development of the railroad infrastructure and the protection of equipment from external factors. The proposed design of the multilayer electromagnetic shield to protect human and equipment from exposure to the electromagnetic fields of utility frequency at power transformer substations is more effective than the known options. This is supported by the measurements. Here are presented a new approach to convert the rotating magnetic fields of utility frequency at the power transformers into the linearly polarized fields and the methods for their effective suppression using the example of the three-layer MES - “sheet-lattice-sheet”.

5. DATA AND MATERIAL AVAILABILITY Information regarding this study is available by contacting the corresponding author.

6. REFERENCES [1] Shukla, Yb & Joshi, Satish. (2011). 3-phase induction heating system using bi-directional switching transformer. 11. [2] Samaras, T., et al. (2015). Opinion on potential health effects of exposure to electromagnetic fields. Bioelectromagnetics, 36, 480-484. DOI: 10.1002/bem.21930 [3] Belinsky S.O., Kirpichnikova I.M., Averyanov Yu.I. (2017). Experimental studies of the parameters of electromagnetic fields with a frequency of 50 Hz in a traction DC substation. *Corresponding author (G. Bilenko). Email: genbilenko@mail.ru ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9T http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9T.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.182

Vestnik SUSU, Energy Series, 17(2), 41â&#x20AC;&#x201C;47. [4] Iosif, F.D. & Costea, Marius Aurel. (2014). Multilayer electromagnetic screens for electronics. 62, 96-102. [5] Ziolkowski, Marcin & Gratkowski, Stanislaw. (2009). Shielding From External Magnetic Fields by Rotating Nonmagnetic Conducting Cylindrical Shells. Electromagnetic Compatibility, IEEE Transactions, 51, 720-724. DOI: 10.1109/TEMC.2009.2025701. [6] Liu, L., Matitsine, S., Tan, P. (2008). Electromagnetic Smart Screen for Tunable Transmission and Reflection Applications. Piers Online. 4. 251-254. DOI: 10.2529/PIERS071204100826. [7] Legkiy N. (2020). Screens for Protection Against Electromagnetic Radiation / International Journal of Innovative Technology and Engineering, 9(3), 2398-2402. [8] Ryabov, Yu.G., Gurov, IB. (2014). Shielding of built-in transformer substations. EMC Technologies. 3(50), 21-28 (in Russia). [9] Ryabov Yu.G., et al. (2011). A multilayer electromagnetic screen to protect the environment from electromagnetic influences. Energy security and energy saving, 1, 3-7. (in Russia) Dr. Gennady Mikhailovich Bilenko is Chief of the Department of Transport Management at the Russian University of Transport (MIIT). He is a Candidate of Technical Sciences. His area of interest is Optimization and Ensuring the Safety of Traffic Flows.

Dr. Evgenii Vladimirovich Novikov is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Electrification and Power Supply of the Russian University of Transport (MIIT). He is a Candidate of Technical Sciences since 2012, Area of Scientific interests: Reliability, Safety of Railway Transport Infrastructure Facilities.

Professor Dr. Valery Voldemarovich Ridel is Professor at the Department of Transport Infrastructure Management Systems of the Russian University of Transport (MIIT). He received a Doctorate in Technical Sciences. His research interests are Mathematical Modeling of Systems with Distributed Parameters.

Dr. Anton Pavlovich Chekhov is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Electrification and Power Supply of the Russian University of Transport (MIIT). He is a Candidate of Technical Sciences. His field of interests include Information Technology in Production, Electric Machines.

Dr. Mikhail Aleksandrovich Rybin is Head of the Testing Laboratory of the Russian University of Transport (MIIT). He is a Candidate of Technical Sciences. His interests encompass Information Technology.

Gennady Bilenko, Evgenii Novikov, Valery Ridel, Anton Chekhov , Mikhail Rybin

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A9U

IMPACTS OF DEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLES ON CAUSES AND OUTCOMES OF OCCUPATIONAL STRESS: CASE OF JUDICIARY IN KPK PAKISTAN Tehseen Ahmad 1

, Qamar Afaq Qureshi

Department of Public Administration, Institute of Political and Administrative Studies, Gomal University DIKhan, KP,, PAKISTAN.

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Article history: Received 24 October 2019 Received in revised form 02 March 2020 Accepted 31 March 2020 Available online 09 April 2020

Everyone experiences stressful situations, though people react to them in different ways. The concept of stress has been identified as being a major protagonist of ill health and poor senses of wellbeing amongst all age groups. Several stress factors have been determined to affect both Judges and advocates. However, relevant literature does not adequately explore the effect of demographic variables on the stress factors. This Keywords: Demographics stress; Job study aimed to examine the differences between demographic stress; Experience stress; characteristics and occupational stress. Data was collected through questionnaires by using 285 samples from all the twenty-five districts of Individual stressors; Collective Stressors; Khyber Pakhtunkhwa per population size to include respondents from all Outcomes of stress; over the province. A simple random sampling was used to determine the Judges’ stress; Ill-Health; participants in the study. Seven (Age, Gender, Designation, Experience, Advocates’ stress. Qualification, Residence, and Marital status) demographic attributes of the judges and advocates were taken from the literature to identify any mean differences between different groups of the respondents on demographic diversities. Data was analysed through t-test and One-way ANOVA. Results revealed that the questions regarding demographic relations were significantly contributed to revealing that opinion has changed due to six of seven variables. Disciplinary: Public Administration & Management Sciences. ©2020 INT TRANS J ENG MANAG SCI TECH.

1. INTRODUCTION The advocates and judges enjoy a high level of respect in society but at the same time they have huge responsibilities on their shoulders. Due to the psychologically demanding nature of the job they face occupational stress which leads to adverse health. The judges preside the courtrooms and after examining the evidence they have to make the judgments, similarly prosecutor help in an investigation on legal points and present the case in the court, Therefore due to immense nature of *Corresponding author (Tehseen Ahmad). Email: tehseenahmed430@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9U http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9U.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.183

the job, non-cooperating behaviour of the culprits, life threats from the accused, work overload, etc their job is very stressful (Freedy and Hobfoll, 2017). By evaluating the relevant material on the specific topic the researchers refer to various stress factors, types of stress, which affect the turnover, performance, or burnout, except its demographic determinants (Eswi et al. 2013). However, numerous studies analysed the group means differences between the sources of stress, outcomes of stress and the demographic variables, specifically for advocates and judicial employees. The importance of this research can be examined from the fact that in Pakistan there are not enough studies or literature on occupational stress of judicial employees and secondly there is no mechanism to control or reduce the causes of stress. So the impact of demographic variables on occupational stress always remains poorly understood (Beheshtifar et al. 2011). Therefore, this research project's basic goal is to investigate the differences between the demographic variables and job stress factors for judges and advocates. This study’s hypotheses are H#1 Respondents with a qualification of LLM have job stress score higher than LLB. H#2 Judges have job stress score higher than the advocates. H#3 Respondents having 21 plus years’ experience have job stress score higher than the rest of the groups. H#4 Females have job stress score higher than males. H#5 Rural respondents have job stress score higher than urban. H#6 Age change response on all research variables. H#7 Married respondents have job stress score higher than unmarried ones.

H#3 and H#6 test with ANOVA, while the rest uses tests of significance. Table 1: List of Demographic Variables 1 2 3 4 5 6

Demographic Variables Age Gender Experience Status Residency Qualification

Codes AGE GDR EXP STS RES QUA

Marital status

MRS

Explanation Age of the respondent Male and female Years of experience Judge and advocate Urban, Rural Bachelor of Law (LLB), Master of Law (LLM) Single, Married

Table 1 lists all the research demographic variables.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW Occupational stress is a physical or psychological pressure that appears when there will be a conflict between resources and job demands (Malik, 2011). Term job stress is utilised alternatively with occupational stress and work stress in the context of organisation (Kannan et al., 2015). It is generally caused when an imbalance occurs between the employees’ abilities and work demands, a combination that can eventually lead to job burnout. Occupational stress is a general term that is defined as a temporary adaptation process causing psychological strain (Rasti and Salajeghe, 2019).

Tehseen Ahmad, Qamar Afaq Qureshi

According to Malik (2011), occupational stress is one of the leading issues for today’s employees and it appears from their reactions to their working situations and environment which threatened them (Kishori and Vinothini, 2016). Job Stress can affect an organization with employee’s intension to leave, absenteeism, poor performance and interpersonal difficulties (Freedy and Hobfoll, 2017). Job dissatisfaction is a common cause of occupational stress. (Golbasi et al., 2008) show a positive relationship between voluntary turnover, employee burnout, intention, and shows a negative relationship with organisational productivity and employee performance (Fox and Tang, 2017). 2.1 CAUSES OF STRESS Stress is a physical and emotional strain caused due to our response to pressure. This is a response by the body to a stimulus that distracts regular functioning (Parveen and Inayat, 2017). The most observed sources of stress were uncertainty about the future, fear of failure, lack of confidence, nervousness, sadness, discomfort, depression, lack of confidence, lethargy, negative attitudes, fatigue and low temper, poor satisfaction with performance and decrees sleep. Identification of sources of stress will bring a positive change in performance and attitude (Kishori and Vinothini, 2016). 2.2 OUTCOMES OF STRESS Anxiety, Depression, and trauma are the most commonly diagnosed psychological problems (Samartha and Begum, 2014). Numerous studies revealed that anxiety, stress and depression produce several negative outcomes at jobs such as dissatisfaction and decreased performance (Malik, 2011).

Figure 1: The study framework. Figure 1, the proposed model showing the Impact of Demographic variables on causes of stress and their outcome. 2.3

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

Data is collected through a standardized questionnaire. it is most feasible to collect data from big populations in less time and cost. Data collected from all the 25 districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Judges and advocates are the target population. Simple random sampling is used to collect the data. Initially, a pilot study was conducted to ensure the reliability and validity of the scales. A pilot study was carried by utilizing a specimen of 75 respondents. The scholar himself went and regulated the questionnaire among these respondents. Toal 285 questionnaires were floated and 252 were received back with a response rate of 88%. Seven demographic variables covering all the related characteristics, which are expected to influence their reactions, are included in the instrument on a seven-point Likert scale. *Corresponding author (Tehseen Ahmad). Email: tehseenahmed430@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9U http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9U.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.183

3. ANALYSED RESULTS a. Mean Differences on Qualification Groups In Table 2, the role of qualification is tested through a t-test. Due to qualification, the views of the respondents have been changed on two out of three variables. The views of the respondents have been changed on Collective Stressors and outcomes of stress, While no significant mean differences in the Individual stressors. Cohen (1998), stated about the level of effect size as small (d= 0.20), medium (d=0.50) & large (d= 0.80). Cohen d was computed to measure the effect size. The value of (d= 0.22) for Individual stressors, (d= 0.51) for Collective stressors, (d= 0.63) for outcomes. The magnitude of the difference in the means was small. Here the response rate is 2/3= 66%, Two variables changed while one is insignificant. Thus, hypothesis H#1 is partially accepted. Table 2: Independent Samples Test for groups based on Qualification [H#1] Test Individual stressors

F 0.13

Sig. 0.71

T Df Sig. (2-tailed) Cohen’s D EVA 0.08 252 0.93 0.22 EVNA 0.08 17.17 0.93 Collective Stressors EVA 8.74 <0.01 -2.03 252 0.04 0.51 EVNA -1.40 15.87 0.01 Outcomes EVA 1.49 0.22 3.42 252 <0.01 0.63 EVNA 3.39 179.04 <0.01 Key: Equal variance assumed (EVA); Equal variance not assumed (EVNA)

b. Mean Differences on Designation In Table 3, the difference of opinion occurs between advocates and Judges on collective stressors (independent variable) and outcomes of stress (dependent variable). Cohen d was calculated to measure the effect size and the value of (d= 0.30) for Individual stressors, (d= 0.42) for Collective stressors, (d=0.25) for outcomes. Here the response rate is 2/3=66%, therefore; hypothesis H#2 is partially accepted. Table 3: Independent Samples Test for Designation [H#2] Individual stressors Collective Stressors Outcomes

EVA EVNA EVA EVNA EVA EVNA

F 35.12 0.09 21.74

Sig. <0.01 0.75 <0.01

T -2.42 -2.30 -0.20 -0.20 -1.89 -1.83

Df 252 176.23 252 243.55 252 202.13

Sig. (2-tailed) 0.30

Cohen’s D 0.30

0.02 0.42 0.03 0.25

c. Mean Differences on Experience In Table 4 One-way ANOVA was applied to check the group means difference. The results show the significant classification of the respondents because the hypothesis that the respondents having above 20 years’ experience have job stress score higher than the rest of the groups, it stands true on all of the three variable i.e (individual stressors, Collective stressors, Outcomes). Therefore, hypothesis H#3 is accepted. Eta Square was calculated to measure the effect size and the value of (d=0.00) for Individual stressors, (d= 0.06) for Collective stressors, (d= 0.09) for outcomes.

Tehseen Ahmad, Qamar Afaq Qureshi

Table 4: ANOVA for Experience-based mean differences (H#3). Test Individual stressor Between Groups Within Groups Total Collective Stressors Between Groups Within Groups Total Outcomes Between Groups Within Groups Total

Sum of Squares 0.08 51.52 51.60 0.08 55.47 55.55 0.46 216.74 217.21

Df 2 250 252 2 250 252 2 250 252

Mean Square 48.76 1.47

F 33.01

Sig. <0.01

15.44 5.83

2.64

0.05

29.44 1.33

21.98

<0.01

Eta square

0.00

0.06

0.09

d. Mean Differences on Gender In Table 5, a t-test was applied to check the group's means difference. The results show the significant classification of the respondents because the hypothesis was that females have job stress score higher than males. It stands true on three variables i.e (individual stressors, Collective stressors, Outcomes). Cohen d was calculated to measure the effect size and the value of (d = 0.53) for Individual stressors, (d= 0.60) for Collective stressors, (d = 0.73) for outcomes. Here the response rate is 3/3=100% Therefore the H#4 is accepted as true and substantiated. Table 5: Independent Samples Test for Gender (H#4). Test Individual stressors Collective Stressors Outcomes

EVA EVNA EVA EVNA EVA EVNA

F 0.15

Sig. 0.69

1.49

0.22

36.61

0.00

T 3.56 3.47 3.42 3.39 4.68 4.00

Df 252 167.92 252 179.04 252 103.25

Sig. (2-tailed) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Cohen’s D 0.53 0.60 0.73

e. Mean Differences on Residence Table 6 shows an insignificant relationship among all the three variables because p-values fall beyond the required critical value of 0.05. The respondents either living in urban or rural areas have no difference of opinion. They have the same views. Thus, H#5 is rejected. Table 6: Independent Samples Test for Residence (H#5)

Individual stressors Collective Stressors Outcomes

EVA EVNA EVA EVNA EVA EVNA

Levene's Test for Equality of Variances F Sig. 0.87 0.34 0.52

0.47

0.93

0.33

Sig. (2tailed)

0.48 0.46 -0.33 -0.32 -0.49 -0.48

250 162.91 250 165.09 250 167.13

0.632 0.641 0.741 0.746 0.621 0.627

Cohen’s D

0.6 0.4 0.6

f. Mean Differences on Age In Table 7, one-way ANOVA was applied to check the group means difference. The results show the significant classification of the respondents on individual stressors with a p-value of 0.05. While collective stressors and outcomes show insignificant results therefore, H#6 is partially substantiated (1/3). The effect size for the ANOVA was calculated through Eta square, which shows that the effect is statistically significant, low for organisational strategies and strong for the rest of the variables. *Corresponding author (Tehseen Ahmad). Email: tehseenahmed430@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9U http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9U.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.183

Table 7: Analysis of variances (ANOVA) Applications on Age Groups Individual stressors Collective Stressors

Outcomes

Between Groups Within Groups Total Between Groups Within Groups Total Between Groups Within Groups Total

Sum of Squares 1.24 26.45 27.69 1.79 82.88 84.67 0.90 60.64 61.54

Df 2 250 252 2 250 252 2 250 252

Mean Square 0.62 0.20

F 3.03

Sig. 0.05

Eta-square 0.04

0.89 0.64

1.39

0.25

0.02

0.45 0.47

0.95

0.38

0.01

g. Mean Differences on Marital Status In Table 8, the marital status has changed the views. Married people have job stress scores higher than the unmarried. This hypothesis stands true on all variables. Cohen d was calculated to measure the effect size and the value of (d= 0.50) for Individual stressors, (d= 0.33) for Collective stressors, (d= 0.79) for outcomes, (d=0.12) for Personal Strategies, (d= 0.09) for Organisational Strategies. The H#7 is therefore accepted as (3/3). Table 8: Independent Samples Test for Marital status (H#7). Individual stressors Collective Stressors Outcomes

EVA EVNA EVA EVNA EVA EVNA

F 13.64

Sig. 0.00

9.78

0.00

0.15

0.69

T -4.13 -3.73 -2.70 -2.84 3.56 3.47

Df 105 59.79 105 104.66 219 167.92

Sig. (2-tailed) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Cohenâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s D 0.50 0.33 0.79

Table 9: Summary Table Demographic Impacts Individual stressors Collective stressors Outcomes

QUA 0.93 0.04 0.00

DES 0.3 0.02 0.05

EXP 0.00 0.05 0.00

GDR 0.00 0.00 0.00

RES 0.64 0.74 0.62

AGE 0.05 0.25 0.38

MRS 0.00 0.00 0.00

Table 9 gives a summary of the overall results. The overall result is 86%. Six hypotheses out of seven stand true and only one hypothesis is rejected. The residency does not change the opinions of the respondents.

4. CONCLUSION This study finds the group-mean differences due to demographic classification which provides the real nature of the issue and thus solution models will be developed accordingly. Almost all the demographic variables have affected the view of respondents on every research variable including causes and outcomes of occupational stress. The visible trend is that seniority in different aspects is creating differences of opinion. For example, respondents with a higher qualification, greater experiences and age are scoring higher. Likewise, females are also showing mean differences on all the variables as compared to their counterparts. It shows that all have similar mean job stress scores about the role of organizational practices to manage employeesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; occupational stress. The role of these factors is critical and significant in the contemporary environment of the judicial sector in KPK. While there is no difference of opinion of the respondents either living in urban or rural areas. They have the same views. The results verify the documented studies claiming the possible role of

Tehseen Ahmad, Qamar Afaq Qureshi

demographic attributes in changing the viewpoint of respondents. Thus, keeping in view this research analysis the government and related organization should take the proper steps to reduce the level of stress among the employees.

5. DATA AND MATERIAL AVAILABILITY Information regarding this study is available by contacting the corresponding author.

6. REFERENCES Beheshtifar, M., Hoseinifar, H., & Moghadam, M. (2011). Effect procrastination on work-related stress. European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences, 38, 59-64. Eswi, A. S., Radi, S., & Youssri, H. (2013). Stress/stressors as perceived by baccalaureate Saudi nursing students. Middle-East Journal of Scientific Research, 14(2), 193-202. Fox, J., & Tang, W. Y. (2017). Womenâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s experiences with general and sexual harassment in online video games: Rumination, organizational responsiveness, withdrawal, and coping strategies. New Media & Society, 19(8), 1290-1307. Freedy, J., & Hobfoll, S. E. (2017). Conservation of resources: A general stress theory applied to burnout Professional burnout (pp. 115-129): Routledge. Kannan, P., & Suma, U. (2015). Managing Stress among Co-Operative Bank Employees in Palakkad district. International Journal of Scientific Engineering and Applied Science, 1(7), 22-24. Rasti, A., Salajeghe, S. (2019). Impacts of occupational stress and employee empowerment on employee alienation. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. 10(7), 977-986. Malik, N. (2011). A study on occupational stress experienced by private and public banks employees in Quetta City. African Journal of Business Management, 5(8), 3063-3070. Manjunatha, M., & Renukamurthy, T. (2017). Stress among Banking Employee-A Literature Review. Int. J. Res. Granthaalayah, 5, 207-213. Parveen, A., & Inayat, S. (2017). Evaluation of factors of stress among Nursing Students. Advanced Practices in Nursing, 2(2), 1000136. Samartha, V., & Begum, M. (2014). A comparative analysis of occupational stress among the employees in public and private sector banks in dakshina kannad district. Bank management, 2(2). TehseenAhmad is a Ph.D. scholar at Dept. of Public Administration, Gomal University, D.I. Khan, KPK, Pakistan. He completed his M Phil from Qurtaba University . His research is in areas of Stress Management, Islamic Banking etc.

Dr. Qamar Afaq Qureshi is an Assistant Professor at Dept. of Public Administration, Gomal University, D.I. Khan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. He got his MPA & MPhil Degrees from DPA, GU, and Ph.D. from the Department of Management Sciences, Hazara University, Hazara. His research is focused on E-Health and HRM.

*Corresponding author (Tehseen Ahmad). Email: tehseenahmed430@gmail.com ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.9 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A9U http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A9U.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.183

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