INDIA NEWS
Dec 16-31, 2021 - Vol 2, Issue 11
EDITORIAL
From the editor's desk Putin visiting India: Is it A Tall General bids adieu strategic balancing? with other Bravehearts By Major General S.B. Asthana
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ndia’s first Chief of the Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat tragically died on 8 December in a Mi-17V5 helicopter crash in the hills near Coonoor district in Tamil Nādu, along with his wife Madhulika Rawat and 11 other defence personnel onboard. The dead included CDS’ Defence Adviser Brig Lakhbinder Singh Lidder, Group Captain Varun Singh, Staff Officer Lt Col Harjinder Singh, Wing Commander Prithvi Singh Chauhan, Squadron Leader Kuldeep Singh, Junior Warrant Officer Rana Pratap Das, Junior Warrant Officer Arakkal Pradeep, Havildar Satpal Rai, Naik Gursewak Singh, Naik Jitendra Kumar, Lance Naik Vivek Kumar, Lance Naik B Sai Teja is on life support in the Military Hospital at Wellington and all efforts are being made to save his life. Expressing grief at the tragedy Prime Minister Narendra Modi said, "I am deeply anguished by the helicopter crash in Tamil Nadu in which we have lost Gen Bipin Rawat, his wife and other personnel of the Armed Forces. They served India with utmost diligence. My thoughts are with the bereaved families. Gen Bipin Rawat was an outstanding soldier. A true patriot, he greatly contributed to modernising our armed forces and security apparatus. His insights and perspectives on strategic matters were exceptional. His passing away has saddened me deeply. Om Shanti. As India’s first CDS, Gen Rawat worked on diverse aspects relating to our armed forces including defence reforms. He brought with him a rich experience of serving in the Army. India will never forget his exceptional service." Vice President Venkaiah Naidu also tweeted, “Deeply shocked by the tragic death of Chief of Defence Staff, General Bipin Rawat, his spouse Smt. Madhulika Rawat, senior officials of the armed forces & others in a helicopter crash in Coonoor, Tamil Nadu.” Homage poured in from around the world. The US defence secretary Lloyd Austin described
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Gen Rawat as a "valued partner". He said, "General Rawat left an indelible mark on the course of the US-India defence partnership and was at the centre of the Indian armed forces' transformation into a more jointly integrated warfighting organization." Russian Ambassador to India Nikolay Kudashev said Russia lost "a very close friend." [Gen Rawat] played a big role in promotion of our bilateral special and privileged strategic partnership. Grieving together with India. Goodbye, friend! Farewell, commander!" The European Union's ambassador to India Ugo Astuto, also condoled, along with General Qamar Javed Bajwa, Pakistan’s Army Chief who had served with Gen Rawat in a UN peacekeeping mission in Congo in 2008. Opposition leader Rahul Gandhi called the accident an "unprecedented tragedy". Sun Weidong, China’s Ambassador to New Delhi conveyed "deep condolences on the sad demise of CDS General Bipin Rawat, his wife and other victims in the helicopter crash". Bhutanese Premier Lotay Tshering described the tragedy as heart aching. Barry O'Farrell, Australian High Commissioner to India, conveyed condolences and noted that Australia-India relationship thrived during General Rawat's tenure. India’s Defence Minister Rajnath Singh in a statement in the Parliament said, “With profound grief and heavy heart, I stand to convey the unfortunate news of the crash of the military helicopter in the noon of 8th December 2021, with India's first Chief of Defence Staff, Gen Bipin Rawat onboard…A tri Service enquiry regarding the incident has been ordered by Indian Air Force, headed by Air Marshal Manvendra Singh, Air Officer Commanding-in-Chief Training Command.” General Bipin Rawat was appointed India’s Army Chief on 31 December, 2016 and then first CDS on 1 January, 2020 and was slated to be in the position until March 2023.
ith heated exchanges between the US and Russia due to heavy concentration of troops in Ukraine border scheduled for talks between both, Russia’s growing dependency on China due to sanctions from West, and Indian tilt towards the US with inclusion in Quad, the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to India on December 6, appears to be viewed differently by different world players. Even in domestic debates, the public anger due to Chinese intrusion in Ladakh and growing partnership of Russia and China, indicates that the visit is sensitive in context of international geopolitical scenario; hence will require a delicate strategic balancing including text of joint statement, if issued at the end of the visit. Notwithstanding the above, the visit is a scheduled 21st India-Russia Annual Summit, which couldn’t take place earlier due to the coronavirus pandemic. There are many justified reasons to continue with 'Indo-Soviet Friendship Treaty (1971)' matured into 'Strategic Partnership (2000)', which has stood the test of time till date, even during ongoing rough relations between China and India. Why Russia matters to India despite the Chinese embrace
Despite India's effort for Atmanirbhar Bharat in defence manufacturing and SIPRI indicating a significant 33 per cent decrease in import of military hardware by India in recent years, it remains heavily dependent on Russian technology, maintenance, procurement of hardware and spares. For many decades Russians have been collaborating with India in its indigenous manufacturing programs and were amenable to transfer of technology, which India was finding difficult to get from others. It includes some major systems like nuclearpowered submarines, warships/ frigates, nuclear reactors, space programmes and flagship projects like Brahmos. The impending visit, besides the deal to commence indigenous manufacturing of AK 203 Kalashnikov rifles, may see some forward movement in collaboration in manufacturing (including transfer of technology of very short range air defence missile systems (VSHORADS), twin engine helicopters to replace Cheetah and Chetak, upgradation of inventory of MIG-29 and Sukhoi aircrafts. S-400 Triumf surface-to-air missile system which India had signed in 2018 for $5.43 billion is a done deal, and the threat of CAATSA is unlikely to have any impact on delivery schedule. It was chosen because it was most suitable to Indian requirements at that point of time. There are also speculations
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of approximately ten agreements to be signed between the two countries, which could include reciprocal exchange of logistics agreement and 10-year military technical agreement, besides Two plus Two dialogue to strengthen existing strategic partnership. The US may be amenable to a waiver on CAATSA for S-400, in view of the common China challenge, but further deals may create some new friction points in strengthening Indo-US relations. In a strategic context, Russia continues to be a favourable P5 member in the UN and continues to support India in various multilateral organisations like the UN, SCO, BRICS on crucial issues. It's a technological powerhouse, one of the largest producers of military hardware, producing rugged equipment suited for a variety of terrain, where Indian forces operate. While its nearness to China, its discomfort with Indian embrace to Quad, growing Indo-US partnership, and hardware sale to Pakistan, forces some of the opinion makers in India to suggest divorcing Russia in favour of US, but such opinions are marred by impracticality, ignorance of Indian hardware dependency on Russia and its track record of reliability of its partnership with India. In its revised Military Strategy document Russia continues to name India as its partner along with China, and has not delayed/defaulted on any hardware support to India, even during standoff with China. The interest of both countries also coincide regarding concerns on export of terror after Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan and resultant humanitarian crisis, which will certainly be a subject of discussion and may find some mention in joint statement. Reality of Sino-Russian embrace The much publicised SinoRussian embrace by Chinese media and Russian acceptance to go along has been due to economic compulsions due to increasing sanctions from West, common adversary US branding both as competitors in security strategy documents. Objectively an expansionist, aggressive China seeking Sino-centric world order does suit Russia as well, which is looking for multilateral world order. Chinese BRI has already side-lined Eurasian dream, its technological theft like alleged hypersonic technology proliferation and increasing border claims in previously settled borders with Tajikistan are not to Russian liking. Russia has made no commitment to back China's misadventure in South China Sea/Himalayas and China has also not made any commitment on Ukraine borders. Reiterating India as a strategic partner may be Moscow's message to the US and Beijing
both. It is however, impractical to expect Russia criticising China or Pakistan or India discussing Ukraine issue during this visit, due to peculiar geo-political equations, and Russians’ need for strategic and economic balancing. Strategic balancing by India India and US have commonality of Interest in most issues including tackling China, which has pushed India to become an important global strategic partner of US, by its aggressive designs. There is congruence of interests in most global issues between US and India in the current geo-strategic equation. India stands with the US and Quad in the context of the Indo-Pacific and facing China’s challenge. India continues to do its best to respond to sensitivities and concerns of the US, at times risking some of its old relationships like Iran. To accommodate US interest, India reduced import of oil from Iran, bearing a cost disadvantage, as Iran oil was being imported in rupee terms, in crude form and attuned to existing refineries in India. India doesn't seem to be repeating the same mistake with Russians, who haven't done anything bilaterally which demands a divorce in a mutual relationship. Moreover, military capacity building of India also adds to the collective strength of Quad, which is in collective interest. Lately India is trying to be selfreliant, as well as diversifying procurement from various countries to include the US, France and Israel. In the last decade the defence procurement from Russia has gradually reduced from over 65 percent approximately to nearly 49 percent and correspondingly increased in favour of the US, Israel and France. There is a noticeable upward trend in purchase of US military hardware, as the year 2020 alone saw a purchase of $3.4 billion worth of US military equipment, indicating enough accommodation by India. In a buyers' market the US has competitors including Russia, Israel and France. India has also made a modest beginning in exporting Rs 38,000 crore worth of military equipment, as a step towards self-reliance, seeking support of all the partners. (Major General S.B. Asthana is a strategic and security analyst, a veteran Infantry General. He is the Chief Instructor, United Service Institution of India. The views expressed are personal)
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