THE HOUSE REPORT - JAN 2024

T H E

HOUSE R E P O R T

INSIDER LOOK AT THE PHOENIX METRO MARKET

TRENDS

EXPERT GUIDANCE

INSIDER INSIGHT

An overview into which trends to watch

Navigate this year’s market with confidence

Words of wisdom from Nicole Kobrinsky

Copyright January © 2024

CONTENTS

Overall Insights 1

A quick and insightful look at the realities of the real estate market in Phoenix Metro

Highlights 2

We utilize The Cromford Index™ which is a set of market indicators to measure the balance of supply and demand

Trends 3-4

A comprehensive look at more detailed market statistics from a past and current perspective

OVERALL INSIGHTS The market has improved for sellers in some ways since last month. The supply of active listings is down almost 9% since December 1 and down more than 10% from a year ago. It is always good for a seller to have less competition from other homes. The monthly sales count for December was an improvement over November, but is still down from a year ago, when things were already not too good. So this is neutral for sellers. The pending and under contract counts are downright bad for sellers, down sharply from last month and significantly lower than a year ago.

Considering how much mortgage rates have fallen in the last two months, the numbers can be described as fairly disappointing from a seller's perspective.

Lower mortgage rates are supposed to bring out more buyers. So far that is barely noticeable.

From a buyer's perspective this is good news because they have less competition to worry about.

HOUSE REPORT | PAGE 1

Prices are still stable, up by more than 7% from this time last year when measured by $/SF, and up 4.4% if measured by median sales price. This is a shade more than the latest rise in the Consumer Price Index. The difference between the two price measurements is caused by the strength in pricing in the luxury market.

Median sales prices are dominated by the entry-level and mid-range markets which have been weaker than the top end.

We are still very short of 2024 data to show which way things are heading. Both supply and demand are picking up, as we would always expect in January. Supply has risen 0.5% in the first 3 days while listings under contract are up 3%. This is barely enough data to draw a conclusion, but the indicators are better for sellers than buyers. The contract ratio has risen from 35.13 to 35.98. This is consistent with a neutral, balanced market, but with the trend again moving in favor of sellers.

I would say a case for (very) mild optimism can be made. There is certainly no sign whatsoever of a housing market crash.

What the market needs most now is higher transaction volumes. I do not yet know if that is coming, but to hope for it is legitimate.

Nicole Kobrinsky PRESIDENT & BROKER OF RECORD

DATA SOURCE: ARIZONA REGIONAL MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE, INC (ARMLS) & CROMFORD ASSOCIATES LLC

HIGHLIGHTS CROMFORD MARKET INDEX | ALL AREAS & TYPES

MARKET TYPE ABOVE 100 SELLER'S MARKET

100 BALANCED

BELOW 100 BUYER'S MARKET

HOUSE REPORT| PAGE 2

SUPPLY TREND

MARKET INDEX

DEMAND TREND

The Supply Trend Index is down a small 1.6 pts in the last month

The 100 mark represents the index value for a balanced market. A value above 100 represents a market that favors a seller.

A value below 100 represents a market that favors a buyer. The Market Index Trend is up 6.1 pts in the last month.

The Demand Index Trend is up a small 0.5pts in the last month

DATA SOURCE: ARIZONA REGIONAL MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE, INC (ARMLS) & CROMFORD ASSOCIATES LLC

TRENDS THREE YEAR | ALL AREAS & TYPES

CROMFORD MARKET INDEX

HOUSE REPORT| PAGE 3

MARKET HIGH

2024 EXPECTATIONS

MARKET LOW

The Market Index was 514 at the height of the market in May 2021.

Entering into 2024 we would say a case for (very) mild optimism can be made. There is certainly no sign whatsoever of a housing market crash.

In the late Spring of 2022, the market decelerated quickly. The lowest Market Index of 88.3 was seen in December 2022.

DATA SOURCE: ARIZONA REGIONAL MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE, INC (ARMLS) & CROMFORD ASSOCIATES LLC

TRENDS YEAR OVER YEAR | ALL AREAS & TYPES

AS OF JANUARY 2023

AS OF JANUARY 2024

16,298

14,593

-10.5%

15,981

-8.7%

18,097

16,457

-9.1%

18,050

-8.8%

PENDING LISTINGS

3,263

3,657

-10.8%

3,798

14.1%

LISTINGS UNDER CONTRACT

5,456

5,127

-6%

5,867

-12.6%

DAYS ON MARKET

69

62

-4.4

58

6.67%

MONTHS OF INVENTORY

3.4 mo

3.3 mo

-2.9%

3.4 mo

-2.9%

SALES PER MONTH

5,138

4,929

-4.1%

4,634

6.4%

SALES PER YEAR

84,935

72,321

-16.04%

72,568

-0.34%

MONTHLY AVERAGE SALES PRICE PER SQ. FT.

$265.90

$284.85

7.1%

$289.30

-1.5%

MONTHLY MEDIAN SALES PRICE

$412,000

429,990

4.4%

$439,000

-2.1%

ACTIVE LISTINGS (excluding under contract)

ACTIVE LISTINGS (including under contract)

%∆ (yr) 1 MONTH AGO

%∆ (1 mo)

HOUSE REPORT| PAGE 4

PRICING

INVENTORY

VOLUME

The monthly median sales price trend down and monthly average price per square foot trend up slightly YOY.

Active listings (excluding UBC) are down 17% and months of inventory is down from 3.8 months to 3.6 months YOY. Prices are likely to inch upward in the coming months especially if demand picks up in the Fall and/or interest rates decline.

Overall volume of residential sales for the year is down a very slight 0.34%.

DATA SOURCE: ARIZONA REGIONAL MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE, INC (ARMLS) & CROMFORD ASSOCIATES LLC

Questions or Comments? Email Report author: Nicole Kobrinsky at nicole@housegallery.com

6901 East 1st St Suite 103 Scottsdale, Arizona 85251 (480)808-1223 | housegallery.com

© 2024 HOUSE GALLERY COLLECTIVE. ALL WORLDWIDE RIGHTS RESERVED. ALL MATERIAL PRESENTED HEREIN IS INTENDED FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. WHILE, THIS INFORMATION IS BELIEVED TO BE CORRECT, IT IS REPRESENTED SUBJECT TO ERRORS, OMISSIONS, CHANGES OR WITHDRAWAL WITHOUT NOTICE. THIS INFORMATION IS BASED ON DATA FROM ARIZONA REGIONAL MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE, INC (ARMLS), CROMFORD ASSOCIATES LLC , REALTORS PROPERTY RESOURCE®, LLC AND INTERPRETED BY HOUSE GALLERY COLLECTIVE, LLC. DATA HAS BEEN LIMITED TO SALES REPORTED WITHIN THE COUNTY OF MARICOPA BOUNDARIES. IF YOUR PROPERTY IS CURRENTLY LISTED WITH ANOTHER REAL ESTATE BROKER, OR YOUR ARE UNDER A BUYER REPRESENTATION CONTRACT WITH ANOTHER REAL ESTATE BROKER, PLEASE DISREGARD THIS OFFER. IT IS NOT OUR INTENTION TO SOLICIT THE OFFERINGS OF OTHER REAL ESTATE BROKERS.