A Spatial Analysis of Mortality Rates in NYS from 2015-2020 Fatimah Mozawalla1,2 and Dr. Lance Becker1 1Donald
Background • • •
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The daily “death toll” due to COVID -19 is a widely broadcasted figure that has played a prominent role in shaping national policy. Mortality rates influence funding and resource allocation, and their far reaching economic, social, and political implications necessitate the need for accuracy. NYS an epicenter during the pandemic and as mortality rates skyrocketed and hospitals became overwhelmed, it is highly suspected that many individuals have been undiagnosed as dying due to COVID191. This project seeks to perform a spatial analysis of the undercount of deaths due to COVID-19 on the zip code level. This will aid in determining adequate resource allocation and discovering correlating social determinants of health with the spread of COVID-19 in NYS.
2KLAR
and Barbara Zucker School of Medicine at Hofstra/Northwell Leadership Development and Innovation Management Program
Results Cases of COVID-19 by NYC Zip Code (March 17-May 17)
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Mortality rates from 2020 will be greater than the average mortality rate from 2015-2019, and the excess deaths will exceed the number of deaths believed to have been related to COVID-19. Causes of death related to COVID-19 will show an increase in mortality rates, while causes of death not related to COVID-19 will remain the same in 2020 compared to the average from 2015-2019. Zip codes lacking adequate healthcare accessibility will have an increase in the number of deaths occurring outside of the hospital during 2020.
1. Utilizing data from the NYCDOH and NYSDOH to determine if there is a statistically significant increase in mortality rates in 2020 compared to the average mortality rate from 2015-2020. 2. Comparing the increased mortality rate in 2020 to the number of reported deaths due to COVID and determining if there is a statistically significant difference. 3. Utilizing zip codes and ArcGIS to spatially show the distribution of cases and deaths due to COVID- 19. 4. Correlating mortality rates by zip code with the area deprivation index2. 5. Determining what ICD-10 codes and co-morbidities are correlated with a significant increase in mortality.
Conclusions/ Future Work
Hypothesis •
Methods
• Research in collaboration with the NYCDOH, NYSDOH, and Northwell Emergency Medicine Department is still ongoing and further analysis is needed. • Preliminary data (normalized according to population) shows that zip codes including Far Rockaway, Corona, Jackson Heights, East Elmhurst, and Williamsbridge experienced proportionally higher numbers of COVID-19 cases. Created in Collaboration with the NYC Department of Health3.
Resources https://doi.org/10.1016/ S1473-3099(20)30195-X 2 https://www.neighborhoodatlas.medicine.wisc.edu 3 https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page 1