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airlines is clearly on the wane. Foreign-trained personnel do not appear to be much of a factor in U.S. aviation labor markets, perhaps because foreign airlines who often pay for training themselves are not likely to train large numbers of pilots beyond their own immediate needs. Nor has ab initio training been adopted much by U.S. airlines, most likely because its high cost does not seem justified as long as there is a substantial applicant pool of pilots trained in the military, collegiate programs, and on-the-job training. This leaves on-the-job training and collegiate-based programs as the pathways that seem most likely to replace military training as the primary route to the major airlines. The committee expects that collegiate aviation increasingly will dominate on-the-job training because it can produce higher-quality pilots that are better able to adapt to changing technology. Collegiate aviation education, which embeds technical training in a broader foundation of learning, is potentially well suited to preparing workers who can adapt to new technology, learn continuously throughout their careers, and operate effectively in the team-oriented environment of the modern cockpit and maintenance workplace. As the experience of pilot candidates in the 1990s already proves, collegiate aviation programs, combined with the more advanced training offered by specialized flight schools, present individuals with numerous options for accumulating the extensive qualifications that airlines require when the labor market is tight. In the committee's view, a civilian aviation training system grounded in collegiate aviation education offers the most practical alternative to the decline of the military pathway. The key question then becomes: Can a civilian training system that depends heavily on postsecondary education institutions to prepare aviation's most highly specialized workers be expected to provide the numbers and kind of workers that the air transportation industry will need to operate efficiently and safely? Challenges For A Civilian Training System With the downsizing of the military, it is clear that the civilian training system will have to play a larger role in meeting the pilot and AMT needs of the airlines. The committee concludes that the civilian training system, dominated by the collegiate pathway, can meet the specialized workforce needs of commercial aviation, both in terms of the number of people needed and the quality of the training provided. Before the system is fully effective, however, several challenges will have to be addressed. Meeting Airline Demand The initial question posed by military downsizing is whether civilian training will be able to make up numerically for reductions of military-trained aviation personnel, and the committee concludes that the answer is unequivocally yes. In
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