The Hampton Economics Digest
From The Editor
Hello, and welcome to the inaugural edition of The Hampton Economics Digest!
In this edition, we take a look at a wide range of interesting topics, from an insight into Class Inequality in the UK, to the Demographic Death Spiral, and even across the globe for an in-depth look into Togo Electoral Corruption. Despite the recent introduction of UCAS and university applications, our writers have been working tirelessly to produce high-quality articles. And for this, I must thank the entire writing team, along with the Media team at Hampton for publishing our work. With that done, all that’s left to say is enjoy!
Charlie Childs Founder and Editor
Writers: Charlie Childs, Alex Rust, Alex Nelson, Rohan Ladva, Zaid Ahmed, Nathaniel Carson
Tariffs Through Time
On the other side of the Atlantic, US President Donald Trump is implementing tariffs on two of the country’s main trading partners, Canada and Mexico. But what are tariffs, how have they been used in the past, and can they be beneficial forTrump’sAmerica?
Tariffs have been used for centuries, in a variety of contexts. In the city state of Athens in Ancient Greek times, the government placed a levy of 2% on all goods passing through the port of Piraeus, in order to raise money for the government. Looking forward to the 15th century, when (amongst others) King Henry VII reigned, England implemented measures such as increasing taxes onexportsofrawwool.Henry’sTudor Descendants (especially Henry VIII andElizabethI),continuedhislegacy by using protectionist policies, leading to England becoming the most prolific wool-producing nation intheworld.
Tariffs,orinBritain’scase,thelackof them,couldbeseentohaveledtothe fading of the world’s once greatest superpower.In1849,freetraderswon over in the UK, leading to all tariffs being removed. This was in the hope
thatothercountrieswouldfollowsuit – unfortunately they did not. The UK was ahead of the times. The European continent and the US continued using more conventional protectionist policies, and the difference in economic growth was palpable. In the years 1870 to 1913, the UK’s industrial production (2.1%) rose on average by 2% less than Germany (4.1%) and 2.6% less than theUSA(4.7%).TheUKreliedonother countries conforming to free trade, forthegreatergoodofall,buttheydid not, leading to the relative decline in British manufacturing. America overtook Britain as the leading economic force by 1880, and by the time the decisions were reversed in 1932,thedamagewasirrevocable.
Despitethis,tariffsaregenerallynow regarded as a barrier to economic growth,andfreetradeisacceptedby many free-market economists as the best option for countries worldwide. Western economies can no longer compete with low-wage economies, like China and Vietnam, who can produce goods at a lower cost. Therefore, increasing tariffs on these countries, as America has recently done, will raise costs for citizens domestically, while also disrupting
the flow of working capital (materials andhalf-finishedgoods)intotheUS.
It is worth mentioning that tariffs do securethesafetyofacountry’sgoods forthefuture,butthisargumentdoes not hold up to scrutiny in America’s current situation for two main reasons. Firstly, the US is arguably already overwhelmingly selfsufficient for most goods. In addition tothis-perhapsunlikeChina-Mexico andCanada(andtheEU,whotheUS seems poised to aim tariffs at next) werehardlythreatstotheUSinterms ofcuttingoffthesupplyofgoodsand services.
Themostobviouscasestudyintothe damaging effects of tariffs is the Great Depression, which took place in the 1930s. After the FordneyMcCumberActof1922,USimporttax rates reached 40%. However, in the wake of the 1929 Wall Street Crash –the sharp decline in prices on the New York Stock Exchange, which led to a collapse in consumer and producer confidence in the US banking system, and therefore a vast reduction in spending – there was a vast appetite to increase US production back to the levels of the Roaring‘20s. Therefore, protectionist policies,namelyraisingtariffratesby afurther20%,wereintroducedinthe Smoot-Hawleybillof1930.
The effects of this bill were devastating. Retaliation from other governments (like China has already done in the present day, and Mexico and Canada have implemented) ensued, causing many foreign banks to fail, and a huge decrease in global trade – imports and exports between Europe and the US had fallen by two thirds by 1932. These impacts (along with myriad others) contributed further to the deepening recession. Some commentators have even pointedtothefactthatthesepolicies contributed to nationalistic feeling, potentiallyenablingextremiststorise topower,acommonthemeinthelate 1930s.
As the famous phrase coined by George Santayana goes, ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it’. Donald Trump must be careful about understanding and limiting the negative consequences of his recent tariff increases, or the global economy will face years of turmoil ahead.
Nathaniel Carson
The Rise of AI in the Workforce
AIandsimilartechnologieshaveseen huge advancements in recent years, improvingandenhancingourliveson a daily basis. Their applications in industry have had astronomical effects improving efficiency and helping to do menial and slow tasks. Thisshiftmirrorsasignificantchange in our recent history – the Industrial Revolution – which mechanised labour in the primary and secondary sectors creating a global shift towardswhite-collarjobs,whilstalso creating new jobs in the process. However,manyquestionwhetherthe same can be said for the use of AI in the workplace, with concerns over mass unemployment and economic inequalitybeingprevalent.
Previously, the application of technology in industry was through the automation of labour-intensive processes – namely manufacturing and agriculture. These were successful in lowering the prices of clothes, food, and other household items. What’s more, the process of automation has, over time, led to the creation of new jobs to keep up with the evolving world – with the technology industry taking off –mitigatingtheunemploymentcaused bytheuseofmachinery.
In more recentyears,technology has been seen to be replacing not only manual labour, but white-collar jobs too with some heavily affected industries including finance, retail, law,andmedia&marketing.Thiscan lead to job polarisation where the highest-skilled workers are less affected and even benefit in some cases,whereaslower-skilledworkers are faced with redundancy as they maylack thevarietyofskillstoadapt tothechanginglabourrequirements.
Looking at this from a wider perspective, AI automation could cause widespread unemployment across the globe, especially in emerging and developing countries. Inaddition,ariseininequalitymaybe observed – something governments havebeenworkingtoreduceformany decades – as workers move towards the extremes of incomes. Thiscould, in turn, lead to increased crime and poverty, whilst slowing economic growth and lowering wellbeing which arebothkeyelementsofasuccessful society. The government can try to intervene, as it has already been doing in recent years, by investing in retraining schemes to provide workers with transferable skills to
keep up with the evolution of technology.
Ahotlydebatedresponsetothecrisis we face is the implementation of UniversalBasicIncome(UBI).UBIisa guaranteed, unconditional form of benefits provided to all citizens in order to cover the costs of basic necessities. The first time UBI was mentioned was in 1797, in an essay published by Thomas Spence, but more recently it has been becoming increasingly prevalent to such an extentthatithasbeentrialledinsome majorcountries,withvaryingdegrees of success. The trial in Finland was the only one that managed to successfully complete the experiment, where 2000 initially unemployed people were given €560 every month over a 2-year period. A small decrease was seen in their unemployment rate; however, their perceived well-being and health did increasesignificantly.
and may not contribute to society as previously hoped. New ways of providing economic growth must be implemented if these plans are to come to fruition. The use of robots and AI could be taxed, allocating this revenue towards funding UBI. Anotheroptionistoupskillthelabour force to ensure it keeps up with the new jobs created with each technological advancement – for example the development of quantumcomputinghasopenedupa new sector of cybersecurity to combat the threats this poses to privacy.
Aswelooktothefuture,itisclearthat the development and use of AI and automation is inevitable. While this will bring new fears and challenges, we mustn’t forget the potential opportunities it will provide too –driving innovation and reshaping the world. As a society, we must aim to preserve equality and adapt to the newsituationsweface.
It must be noted that the economic strain on a country to sustain UBI indefinitely for the entire population would be astronomical, making its current form unfeasible in the long run as it poses a significant strain on nationalbudgets.What’smore,whilst in some cases it can encourage innovation and entrepreneurialism, it’s important to consider lots of peoplewillbedisincentivisedtowork
Charlie Childs
The Demographic Death Spiral
If you are reading this, the odds are you will soon be part of a declining species. Europe’s working age populationmayhavealreadypeaked, and the future will be one of school closures and underfunded pension systems.Tounderstandthisproblem, weneedtounderstandhowweended up in what can be described as the demographicdeathspiral.
Notsolongago,peoplewereworried abouttheoppositeproblem.In1968, the Stanford academic Paul Ehrlich wrote the book The Population Bomb arguing that mankind was growing fasterthanitsabilitytofeeditself.He predicted a future of plague, famine andwar.Thesetheoriescreptintothe mindsofbothpeopleandpoliticians.
Communist China introduced the one-child policy, aiming to curb the country’s population growth. Restrictions were tight and over 300 million Chinese women received IUDs. 100 million were sterilised. Across the sea in South Korea, the country feared they wouldn't be able to handle an increasing child population in the aftermath of the Korean War. From 1953 to the early 2000s, nearly 200,000 children were sent to live abroad. This wasn't only
orphans - thousands of women were pressured into giving away their newbornsaswell.
The‘replacement rate’is the average number of children per woman. Ironically, this began to decrease even before all this mania wastaking place. As societies became more equal and wealthier, women gained greater freedom to choose if they wanted to have children or not. This, combinedwiththenewavailabilityof contraception, lowered the replacementratefromapeakof5.3in 1963 to nearly half of this by the millennium.
Initially, the population change was small due to decreasing child mortality rates and increasing life expectancies. Since 1990, the mortality rate for under-fives has fallen by nearly 60%. In the last 20 years, global life expectancy has increased by five years from an average of 68 to 73. Around 2010, governments started realising a new workforcewasneededtosupportthe ageing population. China permitted twochildrenperwomanin2015,then three, only to see no change. In the end, they abolished restrictions entirely-butstillsawnoresponse.
European countries resorted to more desperate attempts to reverse the plummeting birth rate. Denmark released the “Do It For Denmark” campaign, which actually saw a success of a small increase in newborns (whether that was due to the campaign or not is still debated). Last year, Putin’s health minister urged citizens to reproduce “during workbreaks”,warningthatthefateof Russiadependsonit.
Italy also sees this as a crisis. Its Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, has appointed a family minister, for “the simple reason that we want Italy to have a future again”. On current projections,hercountrywillloseover five million workers by 2050. This points to a future with a shrinking economy and a bankrupt pension system.
spent more than any other to cajole, beg and bribe its women to have children, only to consistently beat its own record for the world’s lowest replacement rate year after year. It is currently at 0.78, down to just 0.57 birthsperwomaninSeoul.
Italy can at least be thankful that it doesn’t have South Korea’s demographics. Their government
In Britain, the debate is entirely different. When official figures forecasted an increase of five million in the work force, this led to panic because so much of it would be driven by immigration. Foreign-born mothersnowaccountforoneinthree British births, including mine. Even this isn’t enough to stop a decline in the number of primary school children,whichpeakedfiveyearsago. Secondary state schools are expectedtopeakin2027,afterwhich universities might have to start to worry about a lack of applicants. But overall,Britain’sprojectedpopulation growth is an outlier and some forecasters say this will make Britain Europe'slargesteconomy.
Demographically, tomorrow belongs to sub-Saharan Africa. Their population is expected to double by 2050, making them the envy of other nations. Looking at Europe, Asia and their deepening panic over falling births, perhaps Britain should be grateful for the problems we don’t have.
Alex Nelson
Class Inequality in the UK: A Lasting Divide
In 2013, Professor Mike Savage led the Great British Class Survey, a landmark study that highlighted the deep and evolving nature of class division in the UK. Over nine million people filled out the survey within a weekofitsrelease,acleartestament to the nation’s enduring preoccupation with class identity. Yet, despite the visibility of class inequality, its structural underpinnings remain largely unchallenged.
Thetraditionalclassmodel,basedon occupation and employment, no longer adequately captures the realities of modern Britain. Savage’s research outlined a more nuanced, seven-tier class structure, ranging from the ‘elite’ to the ‘precariat’. The most striking revelation from the survey was the role of wealth in shaping class divisions. While the average UK household has accumulatedassetsworth£200,000£230,000, wealth distribution is alarmingly skewed, with the richest 1% owning over 70% of total assets. This concentration of wealth has exacerbated existing inequalities, further entrenching intergenerational privilege.
Oneofthemostpressingconcernsis the increasing significance of inherited wealth in determining life chances.Aspropertypricessoarand wages stagnate, younger generations have become reliant on financial support from their parents - whether thatbepurchasingahomeorfunding highereducation.Theracialaspectof wealth inequality further compounds this issue, with WhiteBritonsholding significantly more wealth than in African and Bangladeshi communities, thereby reinforcing bothclassandracialdivides.
Economic policies over the past few decades have done little to alleviate these disparities. Successive governments, whether Labour or Conservative, have largely failed to address this imbalance. Even today, politicians frequently invoke‘working people’ in their rhetoric - Labour’s latest manifesto referenced the term 21 times - but rarely propose substantial measures to redistribute wealth.
London epitomises the UK’s class divide. As a global financial hub, it is home to both extreme affluence and entrenched poverty. The starkness of thisinequalityisillustratedbythefact
that, “you could clear out all the residents of Manchester, and fill it with London children who live below the poverty line, and you’d still need more space”. Despite such glaring disparities, discussions on class remain largely overshadowed by political narratives that focus on economic growth rather than redistribution.
Furthermore,today’sworkingclassis vastly different from that of previous generations. Traditional manufacturing jobs have declined, replaced by low-paid and often insecure service sector roles. Many key workers, including nurses & teachers now form the backbone of the working class, yet they remain undervaluedandunderpaid.
The UK’s class system is no longer about occupation or status; it is fundamentally about wealth. Addressingclassinequalityrequiresa radical shift in economic policy, one that prioritises wealth redistribution, public investment, and the dismantling of structural barriers to social mobility. Without such changes, class divisions will only widen, leaving large sections of society struggling while a privileged fewcontinuetothrive.
Alex Rust
The UK University Cash Crisis
The Office for Students (OfS) has predicted that almost three quarters of universities will find themselves in financial trouble this year.
Perhaps a quieter side of education today that isn’t being talked about enough, UK universities are currently facing concerns financially, and this isexpectedtoworsenoverthecourse of this year. Now of course, most of the people reading this will be considering going to university, and perhapsyouhaveheardoftherecent rise in university tuition fees. Yet very few are fully aware of the financial pressure currently affecting universities.
It is difficult to pinpoint exactly what iscausingtheseissues,butthereare acoupleofmainreasonstoconsider. Firstly, it may not come as a surprise that the ever-publicised topic of UK inflationinrecentyearshashadapart in this. Ever since the introduction of tuition fees approximately two decades ago, they haven’t increased as fast as inflation, which has meant thatthecostofuniversityeducationis nownotfullyreflectedinthefees.The remaining burden now falls on the universityitself.Anotherreasonisthe situation of international students coming into the UK. There is a
decreasing number of students coming in from abroad to study, and considering the very high fees for international students, this means that revenue from tuition fees is decreasing.
It may seem that increasing fees might be an option for the government to help solve the problem. The issue is that, despite the recent increase for home students from £9250 to £9535, there is only so far this can go. Since historically these fees havenot really kept up with inflation, it is very difficult to suddenly make big or consistent increases now, as this wouldnotgodownwellwithstudents and their families. A similar example tothissortofsituationinaneconomy isstickywages,whereemployeesget sousedtotheirhighercurrentwages, and it is therefore a real challenge to decrease wages even if the economy demands it due to employee resistance.
The university ‘cash crisis’ is not the only problem currently affecting higher education providers, with ‘rogueoperators’alsocausingissues. These are franchised higher education providers which are in partnership with registered
universities, and they help to deliver some courses on their behalf. This soundsallwell andgood,andseems likeitmusthaveapositiveimpacton theeducationsector.However,these operators often stay unregistered themselves and provide low quality courses, but still have access to student loan funding, essentially openingupabigriskofloanfraud.
A recent investigation into this by the National Audit Office (NAO) has led the government to announce a new plan to tackle this issue, with stricter rules to be put in place. Under these rules, it will be compulsory for any franchisedcourseprovidertoregister with the Office for Students (OfS) before they can gain access to the studentloansystem.
Despite this new plan, the financial problemsstillstand.Oneargumentis thattheuniversityfinancialcrisismay actually have caused this increase in ‘rogue operators’. Since universities are not really able to increase tuition fees by too much, they are instead looking for more students to enrol in UK higher education to increase revenue.Thisopensopportunitiesfor such providers who can take advantage of this and the student loansystem.
Zaid Ahmed
Togo Electoral Corruption
Amidst numerous accusations of corruption, Togo held its elections in April 2024. The ruling Union for the Republic (UNIR) party secured a dominant victory, winning 108 out of 113 seats in the National assembly. This result has created an uncontestedpathforPresidentFaure Gnassingbétoextendhis,atthetime, 19-year hold on power. This result cast a shadow over the country's democratic processes and has affecteditseconomicenvironment.
There were reports of irregularities during Togo's 2024 legislative elections. A controversial voter registration drive started the election process, but it was postponed under pressure from the opposition party. The government was accused by opposition leaders like Jean-Pierre Fabre of trying to set up a fraudulent registration process. Overall, 4.2 millionoutof9.7millionpeoplewere said to have voted despite these reservations, which then brought forward the idea that there was vote tampering,tothepublic.
Theseproblemsweremadeworseby the postponement of the elections, which created a constitutional crisis when the terms of the departing deputies expired on December 31, 2023.Thesedelayswerecriticisedby the opposition, which claimed UNIR
was using them as a means of retainingpower.
Allegations of fraud have plagued Togo's elections in the past. For example, there was a great deal of controversy surrounding the 2020 presidential election, as Gnassingbé was favoured by the results, despite the opposition being widely thought to have received most of the votes. This has resulted in the public’s mistrust of the electoral system, whichcausedandcontinuestocause widespreadunrest.
Foreigninvestors,wholookforstable environments, are put off by political unrest and corruption. So even with thelowbarrierstoentertheTogolese market(apolicyimplementedamong with numerous others to promote foreign investment), there is a prevalent lack of those willing to investinTogo.
As a result, there are economic inefficiencies due to corruption; according to reports, corruption costs the Togolese economy 25% of its GDP every year. Such losses worsen poverty levels and impede economicgrowth.
In addition, corruption has worsened the clear social divide in Togo. The inequality gap between the rich and the poor gets wider because of
corruption-induced resource misallocation. The economic gap is widening as poverty rates in rural areas are much greater (58.8%) than inurbanareas(26.5%).
The rise in public mistrust by reason of ongoing electoral fraud damages the public's faith in the government, which sparks civil unrest. The economy may experience additional strain stemming from the aforementioned instability, since resources are reallocated to uphold order, rather than advance development.
Togo’s 2024 legislative elections underline the complex relationship between economic prosperity and political integrity. Resolving electoral corruption is essential for maintaining the integrity of democratic processes as well as for promoting economic expansion and raisingthestandardofliving.
Rohan Ladva