1.0 THE 2035 CLIMATE AMBITION GAP
AN EMISSIONS AND ENERGY ANALYSIS OF G20 NDCS
Ten years after the Paris Agreement, taking stock of 2035 climate action plans on the road to achieving the 1.5°C limit.
SUMMARY
Countrieshavemadecollectivecommitmentstolimittheglobaltemperature riseto1.5°C,toreduceemissionsby60%by2035,totriplerenewableenergy anddoubleenergyefficiencyby2030,andtotransitionawayfromfossilfuels. Butcurrenttargets,policies,measures,andfinancialsupportarenot matchingupandwearefacingasubstantialambitionandimplementation gap Withallcountriesexpectedtobringinnew2035targetsbyCOP30,itwas hopedthatsubstantialprogresswouldbemade.BythemiddleofCOP30 howevermanycountrieshavenot(yet)submittednewtargets,andthosewho didhavepresentedplansthatcollectivelydonotmeetexpectations.In particular,G20countries-andespeciallythedevelopedcountriesamong them-whoareresponsibleforthevastmajorityofglobalgreenhousegas emissionsandthebulkoffossilfuelconsumption,arefailingtopresent adequatetargetsandmeasures.
TheimportanceoftheG20ʼscontributiontoglobalclimateactioncannotbe overstated.Thesemajoremittersaccountforalmost80%ofcurrentemissions andaround85%ofglobalGDP,givingtheirpoliciesoutsizedinfluenceon
globaltrade,investmentandtechnologyflows.Inshort,whatG20countries do-orfailtodo-willdeterminewhetherthe1.5°Ctemperaturelimitremains inreach.
Yettakentogetherasagroup,G20countriesʼsubmittedandannounced2035 targetswouldonlyleadtoareductionof23%to29%oftheiremissions comparedtotheiremissionsin2019.Thisrepresentsaseriousshortfall comparedtotheglobal60%reductionagreedintheGlobalStocktakeonlytwo yearsago.
WithintheG20,developedcountriesbearthegreatestresponsibility,given theirhistoricandcurrentcontributiontoglobalemissionsandtheirfar greatercapacitytoact.Theiremissionreductioncommitmentsshould thereforebewellinexcessof60%,accompaniedbytheprovisionofadequate climatefinancetosupportactionindevelopingcountries.Manyfallfarshort of60% andnonemeettheirfairshareoftheactionrequiredtomeetthis collectivetarget Takentogether,G20developedcountryNDCsamounttoonly a51%to57%reductioninemissionscomparedwith2019levels,representing aglaringfailuretoleadbythecountriesthatshouldbedrivingglobal ambition.
Beyondtheemissionsgap,allG20countryNDCsarefailingtoadequately contributetotheagreedenergytransition.Theylackboththenecessary commitmenttophaseoutfossilfuelsaswellasquantifiedtargetsforprogress relatedtorenewablesandenergyefficiencydevelopments.Overall,G20 countries-hometotheworldʼslargestproducersandconsumersoffossilfuelsofferNDCsthatconspicuouslylackcredible,actionableplanstophaseoutthe veryfuelsdrivingtheclimatecrisis.Developedcountriesinparticularstandout: thoughtheybearthegreatestresponsibilitytoleadandmovefirstandfastest, theirNDCscomenowhereclose.
AtCOP30,countrieswillneedtoadoptaGlobalResponsePlantotacklethe mitigationambitiongapandensuresubstantialandequitableprogressis madeinreducinggreenhousegasemissionsandphasingoutfossilfuels. Progressonclimatefinance,especiallytheprovisionofsignificantlyscaledup publicfinancebydevelopedcountries,willalsobecriticaltounlockgreater ambitionfromdevelopingcountriesthatneedsupport.
The challenge to prevent dangerous climate change
2024wasthewarmestyearsinceobservationsstarted175yearsago,withaverage temperaturesgoingbeyond15°C(comparedtothe1850-1900average)forthefirst time.1 Averagewarmingovera20-yearperiodreached1.25°C,whichsubstantially increasedextremeweatherevents,includingdestructivecyclones,floods,
1 Pleasenotethatthisreferstoanannualaverageabove15°Cwhichisdifferentfromthetargetunderthe ParisAgreementwhichreferstoa20yearaveragetemperaturerise
droughts,forestfiresandextremeheat,withdevastatingimpactonhumanlife.2 Andtheseimpactswillonlygrowasweareontracktofurthersubstantial increases,3 witheconomistswarningthattheglobaleconomycouldfacea50% lossinGDPafter2070,unlessimmediatepolicyactiononrisksposedbythe climatecrisisistaken.4
Temperatureswillcontinuerisingunlesswedrasticallyreduceemissions Emissionshaveincreasedby1.4%peryearbetween1990and2015,theyearofthe adoptionoftheParisAgreement,andby1.6%peryeareversince.5 Emissionsare highlyconcentratedinalimitednumberofcountries.The43membercountries oftheG20,includingtheEU27butexcludingtheAfricanUnion,madeupfor77% ofemissionsin2023 Whenaddingthe55membersoftheAfricanUnion,the sharewouldincreasebyonly5%,highlightingthelargediscrepancyinthe contributionofdifferentcountries(andcontinents).Thesedisparitiesincrease furtherwhentakingintoaccountthehistoricalresponsibilityofmostlydeveloped countriesforgreenhousegasconcentrationsintheatmosphere.
Ifwearetosubstantiallyreduceglobalgreenhousegasemissionstonearzero, thentheuseoffossilfuelswillneedtobecompletelyphasedout.Currentlyfossil fueluseisresponsibleforaround70%ofgreenhousegasemissions,and emissionsfromfossilfuelusehaveincreasedbymorethan60%since1990 6 Inits recentAdvisoryOpinionontheobligationsofstateswithrespecttoclimate change,7 theInternationalCourtofJustice(ICJ)underlinedtheimportanceof phasingoutfossilfueluseinordertoachievethegoalsoftheParisAgreement stating“thatastateʼsfossilfuelproduction,fossilfuelconsumption,grantingof fossilfuelexplorationlicenses,andtheprovisionoffossilfuelsubsidiesmay constituteaninternationallywrongfulactwhichisattributabletothatstate” (paragraph427).
International commitments to act
Alreadyin1992,whenadoptingtheUNFrameworkConventiononClimate Change,countriescommitted“toachievestabilizationofgreenhousegas concentrationsintheatmosphereatalevelthatwouldpreventdangerous
2 WMO(2025),“StateoftheGlobalClimate2024”.March2025: https://librarywmoint/viewer/69455/download?file=WMO-1368-2024 enpdf&type=pdf&navigator=1
3 IPCC,“ClimateChange2022:Impacts,AdaptationandVulnerability”. February2022: https://wwwipccch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-ii
4Trust,Setal (2025),“PlanetarySolvency–findingourbalancewithnatureGlobalriskmanagementfor humanprosperity”,InstituteandFacultyofActuariesandUniversityofExeter January2025: https://actuariesorguk/document-library/thought-leadership/thought-leadership-campaigns/climate-paper s/planetary-solvency-finding-our-balance-with-nature
5EDGAR,“GHGEmissionsofallworldcountries” 2024:https://edgarjrceceuropaeu/report 2024
6UnitedNations,“Causesandeffectsofclimatechange”. https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/causes-effects-climate-change
7 InternationalCourtofJustice(ICJ)(2025),“ObligationsofStatesinrespectofClimateChange”,Advisory Opinion July2025:https://wwwicj-cijorg/sites/default/files/case-related/187/187-20250723-adv-01-00-enpdf
anthropogenicinterferencewiththeclimatesystem”.8 Inthe2015Paris Agreement,countriesfurthercommittedto“holdingtheincreaseintheglobal averagetemperaturetowellbelow2°Cabovepre-industriallevelsandpursuing effortstolimitthetemperatureincreaseto1.5°Cabovepre-industriallevels, recognizingthatthiswouldsignificantlyreducetherisksandimpactsofclimate change”.9 Subsequentagreementsconfirmedcountries'commitmenttolimit temperatureriseto1.5°Cbytheendofthecentury.10
TheParisAgreementobligescountriestosubmit,atleasteveryfiveyears, NationallyDeterminedContributions(NDCs)indicatingspecificnational objectivesforthenext10years.Throughthefirstandsecondround11 ofNDCs,195 countriessetspecificobjectivesfor2030 12 ThethirdroundofNDCswhichhaveto besubmittedthisyear13 shouldincludeobjectivesfor2035.
Asof15November2025,114countries,covering74%ofglobalemissionshave submittedan(economy-wideorsectoral)2035target 14 Someofthelargest emittingcountriesarestilltosubmittheirNDC.Asofnow,twelveG20member stateshavesubmittedanNDC.ThisincludestheUS,whoseNDCisnolonger supportedbythecurrentadministration,andisnotonlywithdrawingfromthe ParisAgreement,butalsorollingbackpoliciesandmeasuresthatwould implementtheNDC Asaresult,itisestimatedthattheUSwouldonlyachieve halforevenlessoftheemissionreductionsincludedinits2035NDC 15
TheParisAgreementalsoputsinplacea5-yearGlobalStocktakeprocesstotake stockoftheprogressofcountriesinreachingthecollectiveobjectivetolimitthe globalaveragetemperatureriseto1.5°C.Thisprocessshouldinformthe
8UnitedNations(1992),“UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange” May1992: https://unfccc.int/files/essential background/background publications htmlpdf/application/pdf/conveng.p df
9UnitedNations(2015),“ParisAgreement”.December2015: https://unfcccint/sites/default/files/english paris agreementpdf
10Suchasinparagraph21oftheGlasgowClimatePactofNovember2021: https://unfcccint/sites/default/files/resource/cma3 auv 2 cover%20decisionpdf
11ThefirstroundofNDCsweresubmittedpriortothe2015COP21inParis MostoftheseNDCstargeted 2030,thoughafewalsotargeted2025emissions Asecondroundmostlyconsistedofanupdateofthefirst NDCsintheperiod2021-2023,withpledgesfocusingon2030.
12TheUNreceived168NDCs,representing195countries Nolessthan180countriesprovidedmultiple (updated/improved)versionsoftheirfirstNDC.Source: https://unfcccint/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs/20 24-ndc-synthesis-report
13InfacttheParisAgreementcallsforthesesubmissionstohappenatthe latest9monthsbeforeCOP30, meaningthe'official'deadlinewasFebruary10 As90%ofcountriesfailedtosubmittheirNDCintime,a seconddeadlinewassetforendSeptembertoallowtheUNFCCCsecretariattoincludetheseNDCsintheir annualSynthesisReport Only64countriessubmittedanNDCintimefortheSynthesisReport
14 123countries(includingallEU27MemberStates)havesubmittedaneworrevisedNDCsince1stof November2024.Ofthese,100countriessubmittedanNDCwithaneconomy-wide2035target.14countries submittedanNDCcontainingasectoraltarget,while9countries(re-)submitteda2030target.Afull overviewcanbefoundontheUNFCCCNDCSubmissionpage:https://unfccc.int/NDCREG
15 TheRhodiumGroupestimatestheUSisontracktoreduceemissionsby26%to35%by2035,ascompared totheNDCwhichaimsatreducingemissionsby61%to66% B King(2025),“TakingStock2025:USEnergy andEmissionsOutlook“https://rhgcom/research/taking-stock-2025
developmentofNDCs.TheoutcomeofthefirstGlobalStocktake,whichendedin November2023,wasclear:moreactionisneededifwearetopreventdangerous climatechange UndertheGlobalStocktake,countriesendorsed:
● deep,rapidandsustainedreductionsinglobalgreenhousegasemissions of43percentby2030and60percentby2035relativetothe2019leveland reachingnetzerocarbondioxideemissionsby2050(para27);
● triplingrenewableenergycapacityby2030(para28a);
● doublingtheannualrateofenergyefficiencyimprovementsby2030(para 28a);
● transitioningawayfromfossilfuelsinenergysystems,inajust,orderly andequitablemanner,acceleratingactioninthiscriticaldecade(para 28d);
TheoutcomeoftheGlobalStocktake16 isamajorachievementasitclearlyputs theenergytransitionfrontandcentreofthedebateandcontainsspecific commitmentsrelatedtothepromotionofrenewablesandenergyefficiencyand thephaseoutoffossilfueluse.
16 UnitedNations(2023) Outcomesofthefirstglobalstocktake:https://unfcccint/documents/637073
COP21: Arc de Triomphe Sun Action in Paris. © Greenpeace
Failure to achieve the 1.5°C objective of the Paris Agreement
Havingcountriescommittothe15°CtemperaturetargetintheParisAgreement wasamajorachievement,butonethatneedstobefollowedbyambitious nationaltargetsaswellaspoliciesandmeasurestoensurethetargetsaremet. Severalreportsassessingcountries'currenttargets,policiesandmeasuresclearly indicatethattheworldfacesasubstantialgapbetweenwhatisneededtolimit temperatureriseto1.5°Candwhatisactuallybeingdone.
Current (2030) NDCs and policies
BothlastyearʼsUNEP2024EmissionsGapReport17 andtheUNFCCC's2024NDC SynthesisReport18 wereclear:afailuretoincreaseambitionin2030NDCs combinedwiththeirweakimplementationputstheworldontrackfora temperatureincreaseof26°Cto31°Coverthecourseofthiscentury Current NDCswouldleadtoemissionsof51.5GtCO2-ein2030,alevelonly2.6%lower thanin2019.Thisisfarfromthe43%cutby2030agreedintheGlobalStocktake. A2.6°Cincreaseinglobaltemperaturewouldleadtoasignificantescalationof climatechangeimpactscomparedto1.5°C,includingmorefrequentandintense heatwaves,droughts,andfloods,widespreadoceanimpactslikethelossof tropicalcoralreefs,andsevereconsequencesforwater,agriculture,andhuman health.Thislevelofwarming,whichcurrentclimatepledgesputusontrackto reach,wouldbemarkedbydangerous,compoundingrisks,andthelikelihoodof crossingmultipletippingpointsintheclimatesystem,triggeringsevere,abrupt andirreversiblechanges.19
New (2035) NDCs and the central role of the G20
TheimportanceoftheG20ʼscontributiontotheachievementofa60%greenhouse gasemissionreductionby2035cannotbeoverstated.Thesemajoremitters accountfor almost80%ofcurrentemissionsandaround85%ofglobalGDP, givingtheirpoliciesoutsizedinfluenceonglobaltrade,investmentand technologyflows Inshort,whatG20countriesdo-orfailtodo-willdetermine whetherthe1.5°Ctemperaturelimitremainsinreach.
OftheG20memberstates,Australia,Brazil,Canada,China,theEU,Indonesia, Japan,Russia,SouthAfrica,Turkiye,theUKandtheUShavesubmitteda2035 target.Twomorecountries(MexicoandSouthKorea)publiclyannouncedtheir 2035targetsbutdidnotofficiallysubmitthisyettotheUN.ThreeG20countries
17UNEnvironmentProgramme(2024),“Nomorehotair please!Withamassivegapbetweenrhetoricand reality,countriesdraftnewclimatecommitments” October2024: https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2024
18UNFCCC(2024),“NationallydeterminedcontributionsundertheParisAgreement Synthesisreportby thesecretariat“.October2024:https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cma2024 10 adv.pdf
19ArmstrongMcKayetal (2022)“Exceeding15°Cglobalwarmingcouldtriggermultipleclimatetipping points” Science,9September2022: https://wwwscienceorg/doi/101126/scienceabn7950
(Argentina,IndiaandSaudiArabia)havenot(yet)submitted(norannounced) theirNDC.
AsTable1shows,basedonthesubmittedandannounced2035targets,G20 countrieswouldreducetheiremissionsby-23%to-29%by2035comparedto2019 -farshortofthetrajectoryrequiredtolimitwarmingto1.5°C.20
Table1:2035targetsforallG20memberscomparedwith2019emissions21
2-e(net) -29%-42%
SouthAfrica 320-380MtCO2-e(net) -21%-33% SouthKorea -53%-61%/2018(net) -50%-59%
Turkiye 643MtCO2-e(net) +42% UK -81%/1990(net) -66%
Combinedtotalfor G20countrieswith a2035target -23%-29%
1:CanadaistheonlyG20countrythathassubmittedagrossemissionstarget,whichonlydealswith emissionsandnotwithland-based(LULUCF)norindustrialremovals;2:tocalculateChinaʼstargetwe assumedemissionswouldpeakin2024andbasedpeakemissionsonanincreaseof670Mt(asreportedin theEDGARdatabase)abovethe2021emissionslevelsreportedinChinaʼsBiennialTransparencyReport (BTR);3:basedontheexistingNDCfromtheBidenadministration.
20 AllnumbersbasedondatacontainedincountriesʼNDC,furtheraddedbydatafromcountriesʼrespective InventoryReportstotheUNFCCCandwhereneededadditionaldatawereusedfromfromtheClimate Watchdatabase:www.climatewatchdata.org/ghg-emissions
21 Alltargetnumbersinthetablearebasedonofficialsubmissions Notallcountriesusethesame methodologytoaccountfortheiremissionsandactualemissionsmaydiffersubstantiallyfromthose reportedbygovernments
Notethatdevelopedcountries,owingtotheirhigherhistoricalemissionsandgreatereconomiccapacity, shouldaimforsignificantlydeeperemissionsreductionsthantherequiredglobalaverage
The G20 and beyond: Assessing global ambition of 2035 NDCs Asof15November2025,100countriessubmittedaneconomy-wide2035target. Furthermore,14countriessubmittedanNDCwithsectoraltargetsfor2035.A preliminaryassessmentofallcurrent2035economy-widetargets22 showsthatthe worldisfarofftrackfromreachingthe60%reductionby2035(comparedto2019) thatwasagreedintheGlobalStocktake.Currentsubmitted(andannounced) NDCs(G20countriesandbeyond)wouldleadtoagreenhousegasreduction between16%and25%23 comparedto2019emissions24 .
22 NotethatthisassessmentdoesnotincludeNDCswithsectoraltargets.
23 Thisassessmentincludesbothconditionalandunconditionaltargets Anumberofdevelopingcountries havesubmittedconditionaltargets(nexttounconditionalones)whoseimplementationdependsonthe provisionofadequateclimatefinanceandothersupportfromdevelopedcountries
24 NotethisassessmentincludesNDCssubmittedafterthecutoffdatefortheUNFCCCʼs(updated)Synthesis ReportaswellastheannouncedtargetsofMexicoandSouthKoreawhichwerenotincludedinthe SynthesisReport.Furthermore,theSynthesisReportsfocusesontargetsexcludingLULUCF(landuse,land usechangeandforestry)whileonlysevenofthe102countriesassessedhavetargetsexcludingLULUCF. ThisindicatesthatforalargemajorityofcountriestheSynthesisReportisbasedonassumptionsonthe divisionofcountriesʼeffortsbetweenemissionsandremovalsintheLULUCFsectorandemissionsinthe non-LULUCFsectors Ourreporthasnotengagedincalculatingsuchassumptionsandfocusesoncountriesʼ nettargetsasindicatedintheirNDCs.
Whilealreadyfarfromtheneeded60%reduction,thisnumbermightberather optimisticas(a)possiblythecountriesthathavenotyetsubmitteda2035target willhavebelowaveragetargets;(b)China'stargetiscalculatedbasedonits2024 emissions,assumingthiscouldbetheirpeakyear,whichmaynotbethecaseand inthatcaseChina'semissionsin2035willbehigherthaninthisexercise;and(c) theUSNDCwassubmittedbytheBidenadministrationandactionstakenbythe currentadministrationwillmakeachievingthistargetextremelychallenging.
Akeydriverofthislowambitionisweakcommitmentsfrommostdeveloped countries.AspartoftheequityprinciplesoftheUNFrameworkConventionon ClimateChange,developedcountries25 areexpectedtotaketheleadinreducing emissionsandshouldthusaimatemissionreductiontargetswellbeyondthe averageof-60%.UNSecretary-GeneralAntonioGuterrescalledupondeveloped countriestoreducegreenhousegasemissionstonetzeroby2040,whichwould needdevelopedcountriestoreducetheiremissionsbyatleast75%by2035.26 However, currentpledgesindicatedevelopedcountriesareontrackfor emissionsreductionsofonly-50%to-55%comparedto2019.
Althoughtheoverwhelmingresponsibilityfortheemissionsgaprestswith developedcountries,whosehistoricandcurrentemissionsremainfarabove equitablelevels,strongerambitionfromsomedevelopingcountrieswillalsobe essentialtolimitwarmingto1.5°C.Evenifdevelopedcountriesweretocommitto achievingnetzerogreenhousegasemissionsassoonas2035,toachievethe agreed-60%reduction,developingcountriesasawholewouldstillneedtoreduce their2019emissionsbyatleast35%by2035.Severalmajordeveloping-country emittershavesettargetsthatfallshortoftheirfairshareofwhatisrequired, furtherwideningtheglobalambitiongap.
Itshouldbenotedhoweverthatdevelopingcountriesarenotahomogenous groupintermsoftheiremissionsprofiles,economiccapacities,ordevelopment needs-andthisshapeswhatcanbeexpectedoftheir2035NDCtargets.For developingcountrieswithlowerincomesandsignificantdevelopmentneeds, substantialinternationalsupportwillalsobecriticaltoraisingambition
Aswellasleadingonmitigationefforts,theequityprinciplesoftheUN FrameworkConventionalsorequiredevelopedcountriestoprovidesubstantial climatefinancetosupportactionindevelopingcountriesthatneedit The inadequateNewCollectiveQuantifiedGoal(NCQG)agreedatCOP29lastyear highlightsthatthisisstillfarfrombeingachieved.27 Itisbothunjustand
25Developedcountriesinthisassessmentincludeallso-calledAnnex1countries,exceptforTurkiye,and all(non-annex1)Europeancountries
26 UnitedNations(2023) Secretary-GeneralCallsonStatestoTackleClimateChangeʻTimeBombʼthrough NewSolidarityPact,AccelerationAgenda,atLaunchofIntergovernmentalPanelReport.20March2023: https://press.un.org/en/2023/sgsm21730.doc.htm
27 SeeGreenpeaceInternationalresponsetoCOP29outcome https://wwwgreenpeaceorg/international/press-release/71474/cop29-ends-weak-climate-finance-goal-eyesturn-belem/
unrealistictoexpectdevelopingcountriesthatneedsupporttodramatically increasetheirambitionwithoutit.
Off track from the energy targets of the First Global Stocktake
2030 NDCs (and policies)
Doubling,nottriplingrenewableenergy:
ToimplementtherenewablesgoaloftheGlobalStocktakerenewableenergy capacityinthepowersectorneedstobeincreasedtoatleast11,000GWby2030, whichisatriplingascomparedto2022 28 TheIEA29 assessedcountries'renewables targetsandmeasuresinandoutsideofNDCsanditsanalysisindicatesthat triplingglobalrenewablepowercapacityby2030isanambitiousbutachievable goal.Countriesʼoverallambitionsonrenewablepowercapacitycorrespondto reachingalmost8,000GWgloballyin2030,whichis2.2timesthe2022leveland 30%shortoftriplingby2030 Solarandwindmakeupmostofthecapacity explicitlyidentifiedbygovernments.
28IEA,“NetZeroRoadmap:AGlobalPathwaytoKeepthe15°CGoalinReach 2023Update” September 2023:https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-roadmap-a-global-pathway-to-keep-the-15-0c-goal-in-reach
29IEA,“COP28TriplingRenewableCapacityPledge.Trackingcountriesʼambitionsandidentifyingpolicies tobridgethegap” June2024: https://ieablobcorewindowsnet/assets/ecb74736-41aa-4a55-aacc-d76bdfd7c70e/COP28TriplingRenewableC apacityPledgepdf
Wind Park in Feldheim, Germany. © Paul Langrock / Greenpeace
AsimilaranalysisbyEmber30 foundthatnearlytwoyearsaftertheagreementto triplerenewableenergycapacity,mostcountrieshaveyettoreflectthisambition intheirownnationalrenewableenergytargets AsofJuly2025,onlyeight countrieshaveupdatedtheirnationalrenewabletargets,withtheglobalsumof nationaltargetsjust2%higherthanatthetimetheGlobalStocktakeended.
Only1%,not2%energyefficiencyimprovements:
Globalenergyefficiencyprogress–measuredbytherateofchangeinprimary energyintensity–issettoseeonlyaweakimprovementofabout1%in2024.31 Thisisthesamerateasin2023,andaroundhalfoftheaveragerateoverthe 2010-19period.Whiletheenergycrisismarkedapossibleturningpointfor energyefficiencyinsomecountries,globalenergyintensityprogresshasbeen lacklustrein2023and2024.
Noorganisedtransitionawayfromfossilfuels:
Hardlyanycountryhassetatargetfortransitioningawayfromfossilfuelsintheir nationalpolicies,letaloneintheirNDC.Thisissupportedbyananalysis32 of2030 NDCsfromthetop20biggestfossil-fuel-producingcountries,33 whichtogether accountfor93%ofglobalcoalproduction,80%ofoil,and77%ofgas.Athirdof theseNDCsmakenomentionoffossilfuelproduction,whilesixstatedan intentiontocontinueorincreaseproduction.
New(2035)NDCs
Giventheabovefindingsthatcountriesarecurrentlynotontracktoachievethe collectiveenergytargetsofthefirstGlobalStocktake,itisimportanttoassess whetherthe2035NDCsprovideneweffortstobridgethegap.Ascountriesare askedtoexplicitlyindicatehowthefirstGlobalStocktakehasaffectedthe developmentofthenewNDCs,newcommitmentswouldbeexpected.However suchcommitmentsremainlimited,includingfromdevelopedcountrieswho shouldbeleadingtheway.
WhileallG20NDCs,withtheexceptionofJapanandRussia,givespecific attentionandsupporttoatleastoneofthemainthreecommitmentsofthefirst GlobalStocktake:triplingrenewables;doublingefficiency;andtransitioningaway
30Altieri,K.,“Whatʼsnewwithnationalrenewabletargets?Notmuch!”,Ember.July2025: https://ember-energyorg/app/uploads/2025/07/Ember-Whats-new-with-national-renewables-targets -Nothi ng-much-1pdf
31IEA(2024),“EnergyEfficiency2024” November2024:https://wwwieaorg/reports/energy-efficiency-2024
32IISD(2024):HowtheTransitionAwayFromFossilFuelProductionCanBeIncludedinNewClimate CommitmentsandPlans June2024: https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2024-06/fossil-fuel-transition-new-climate-commitments.pdf
33ThisincludesthefollowingG20countries:Australia,Brazil,Canada,China,Germany,India,Indonesia, Poland(aspartoftheEU),Russia,SaudiArabia,SouthAfrica,TürkiyeandtheUnitedStates.Additionally theresearchalsocovers:Algeria,Iran,Iraq,Kuwait,Norway,QatarandUnitedArabEmiratesanddoesnot coverthefollowingG20members:Argentina,mostoftheEU27,UnitedKingdom,Japan,SouthKoreaand Mexico
fromfossilfuels,fewincludespecificqualitativeandquantitativeindicationshow theywillcontributetothecollectivetargetsoftheGST.Withoutquantified economy-widerenewablesandefficiencytargetsandwithoutclearindicationsof pathwaystophaseoutfossilfueluse,itisimpossibletoassessthecontributionof G20countriestotheachievementofthecollectivegoalsoftheGST.
WhilemostG20NDCs(againwiththeexceptionofJapanandRussia)contain clearreferencestopolicies,measuresandsometimestargetstoincreasethe shareofrenewableenergy,theygenerallyprovidelimiteddetailonenergy efficiency(withtheEUasanotableexception).Andoverall,whileG20NDCs acknowledgethecommitmenttotransitionawayfromfossilfuels,theygenerally gonofurtherthansupportingtheglobaltransitionandinafewcasesthe domesticphaseoutofcoal.OnlytheNDCsofBrazilandtheUKcanbeseenas goingabitfurtherthantheothers.
Overall,G20countries-hometotheworldʼslargestproducersandconsumersof fossilfuels-offerNDCsthatconspicuouslylackcredible,actionableplansto phaseouttheveryfuelsdrivingtheclimatecrisis.Developedcountriesin particularstandout:thoughtheybearthegreatestresponsibilitytoleadand movefirstandfastest,theirNDCscomenowhereclose.
Table2providesanoverviewofenergycommitmentsinG20NDCs,andis followedbyacompilationofelementsfromG20NDCsonthethreekeyenergy commitmentsoftheGST.
Global Climate March during COP30 in Belém, Brazil © Filipe Bispo / Greenpeace
Table2:EnergycommitmentsinG20NDCs34
ThetablebelowindicateswhetherG20countriesreferencepolicies,measures,or targetsintheirNDCsthatsupportthecommitmentstotriplerenewables,double efficiency,ortransitionawayfromfossilfuels.ItdoesnotassesswhethertheNDC contentoracountryʼspoliciesaresufficienttoachievetheseobjectives. AsnoG20 countrymentionsatargetfortransitioningawayfromfossilfuels,thesubtarget columnreferstotargetsrelatedtoeithercoalpowerplantsand/orcombustionengine phaseouts. Tripling
Target(s) (oncoal and/or combust ion engines only)
34 ThisassessmentoftheenergycontentofNDCsdoesnotincludeMexiconorSouthKorea Whilethey publiclyannouncedtheir2035climatetargets,withouttheirNDCsubmissionitisimpossibletoassesstheir energycommitments GiventhecurrentUSadministrationistakingoppositemeasurestothose announcedintheNDC,theUSNDCisalsotakenoutofthisexerciseoflookingattheenergyelementsof the2035NDCs
Japan
Mexico
Russia
Saudi
Arabia
South Africa
South Korea
Turkiye
Triplingrenewablecapacity
Australia Wehavepoliciesinplacetosupportafurtherdoublingofourproportionof renewablesby2030,increasingrenewableelectricitygenerationtoatargetof 82%by2030.TheAustralianGovernmenthasintroducedtheRewiringthe Nationprogramtosupportthemodernisationoftheelectricitygrid, alongsidetheCapacityInvestmentScheme,anationalframeworktosupport greaterinvestmentinrenewables,todeliver40GWofrenewableenergy generationcapacityby2030.
Brazil Intheenergysector,wherethecountryalreadystandsoutforthehighshare ofrenewablesourcesinitsenergymatrix-89.2%electricitymixand49.1%in energymix-Brazilwillseektoexpandelectricitygenerationwithan increasedshareoftechnologyandcleansources
Canada Canadahasoneofthecleanestelectricitymixesintheworld–over80%of electricitygeneratedisnon-emitting However,Canadaisdrivingtowardsan evencleanerelectricitygridthroughtheCleanElectricityRegulations.
China Thecombinedinstalledcapacityofwindandsolarpowergenerationwillbe morethansixtimesthatof2020,strivingtoreach36billionkilowatts
EU
TheEUagreedtoatargettoensurethattheshareofenergyfromrenewable sourcesintheUnionʼsgrossfinalconsumptionofenergyin2030isatleast 42.5%,withanadditionalendeavourtoincreasetheshareofenergyfrom renewablesourcesintheUnionʼsgrossfinalconsumptionofenergyin2030to 45%
Indonesia GovernmentRegulationNo 40Year2025onNationalEnergyPolicy,setout theambitiontotransformby2030,2040and2060,theprimaryenergy supplymixwithsharesofnewandrenewableenergyasfollows:(i)19%-23% in2030,(ii)36%-40%in2040,and(iii)70%-72%in2060
South Africa
Ourelectricityplanenvisagesaddingsignificantgreenenergysourcestothe SouthAfricanpowersystem TheIRP2025indicatesthatatotalof44GWof newrenewableenergycapacitywillbeinstalledby2035,thuscontributingto greenindustrializationandhelpingtoachievethemitigationtargetsinthis secondNDC
Turkiye TheLongTermStrategy,whichisalignedwiththeoutcomesofthefirst GlobalStocktake(GST),outlineskeysectoralpoliciesfor2035and2053, includinganincreaseintheuseofrenewableenergysourcesand technologies,thedevelopmentofbatteryandhydrogeninfrastructure,the reductionofenergyintensity
UK TheUKisfullycommittedtotheoutcomesofParagraph28and33oftheGST, includingcontributingtowardtheseglobalgoals,commitmentsandefforts, andthisisreflectedintheactiontakentoachieveourNDC Thegovernment willworkwiththeprivatesectortoradicallyincreasethedeploymentof onshorewind,solarandoffshorewindsothatelectricitygeneratedby renewablesandnuclearpowerwillbethebackboneofacleanelectricity systemby2030.
Australia Whileincreasingrenewableenergysupply,theAustralianGovernmenthas introducedmeasurestoreduceenergydemandthroughtheNationalEnergy PerformanceStrategy,workingwithstateandterritorygovernmentsandlocal councils
Brazil Brazilwillalsoprioritizetheexpansionofenergyefficiencyactions ThePact forEcologicalTransformationincludescommitmentstoimplement managementmeasurestoincreaseenergyefficiency.
Canada TheCanadaGreenBuildingsStrategyincludesseveralaspectsimportantfor improvingenergyefficiency,suchasdeliveringtheCanadaGreenerHomes AffordabilityProgram(CGHAP),modernizingtheEnergyEfficiencyAct;and
developingasuiteofcommonlabellingstandards,tools,andguidelinesto supporthomelabellinginitiativesacrossCanada
China Strictlycontrolfossilfuelconsumption,prioritisingreductionsinnon-power coaluseanddispersed,inefficientcoalcombustion,whileenhancingthe cleanandefficientutilisationoffossilfuels.
EU TheEUagreedtoincreaseambitiononenergysavingsthroughanenhanced targettoreducefinalenergyconsumptionatEUlevelby11.7%in2030 comparedtotheprojectionsofthe2020EUReferenceScenario.
Indonesia GovernmentRegulationNo.33Year2023concerningEnergyConservation, representsaconcretesteptakenbythegovernmenttoregulatetheefficient andrationaluseofenergyresources,energysources,andenergyusage This regulationestablishesvariousprogrammesandmechanismstopromotethe implementationofenergy conservationacrossdifferentsectors(energy provider,industrial,transportation,building,andhousehold)
South Africa SouthAfricacontinuestoenhanceourmitigationefforts,withthe implementationofpolicies,programmesandplanswithsignificant mitigationoutcomes,includingourIntegratedResourcePlanforelectricity, GreenTransportStrategy,draftpost-2015NationalEnergyEfficiencyStrategy.
Turkiye
TheLongTermStrategy,whichisalignedwiththeoutcomesofthefirst GlobalStocktake(GST),outlineskeysectoralpoliciesfor2035and2053, includinganincreaseintheuseofrenewableenergysourcesand technologies,thedevelopmentofbatteryandhydrogeninfrastructure,the reductionofenergyintensity.
UK ThisgovernmenthasalsocommittedtotheWarmHomesPlantoimprove energyefficiencyandtosupporttheconversiontolowcarbon heatingin Britishbuildings
Australia Alongsidetheexitofcoalfromourenergysystem,theAustralianGovernment isacceleratingthedeploymentofrenewableresourcestodelivercleaner, morereliableenergyforAustralia.Australiaisrapidlyshiftingtoamodern, cost-effectiveelectricitysystembasedonrenewableenergy,withcoal-fired power-generationphasingout,andgasplayingafirmingrolealongsidehydro andbatteries.35
Brazil Brazilwouldwelcomethelaunchingofinternationalworkforthedefinition ofschedulesfortransitioningawayfromfossilfuelsinenergysystems,ina just,orderlyandequitablemanner,withdevelopedcountriestakingthelead, onthebasisofthebestavailablescience,reflectingequity Intheenergy
35 NotethatthiscommitmentcoversonlyAustraliaʼsdomesticuseoffossilfuels Thevastmajorityof Australianfossilfuelproductionisforexport
Transitionawayfromfossilfuels
sector TheNationalClimatePlanwillprovidedetailsabouttheexpansionof electricitygenerationand,inthemediumtolongterm,thegradual replacementoftheuseoffossilfuelswithelectrificationsolutionsand advancedbiofuels.
Canada In2016,Canadabecamethefirstcountryintheworldtointroduceregulations oncoal-firedpowerplantsandannouncedaphase-outofcoal-firedelectricity by2030
China China'sNDCadherestotheprinciplesandprovisionsoftheConventionand theParisAgreement,takingfullaccountofthefindingsofthefirstglobal stocktake.
EU TheEUanditsMemberStateshighlighttheimportanceofachievingthe globalphaseoutofunabatedfossilfuelsandapeakanddeclineintheir consumptionalreadyinthisdecadetodeliverthenecessarymitigationas indicatedbyIPCC TheEUanditsMemberStatesagreedthattheenergy sectorshouldbepredominantlyfreeoffossilfuelswellaheadof2050 underliningtheimportanceofaimingtoachieveafullyorpredominantly decarbonisedglobalpowersysteminthe2030s,leavingnoroomfornewcoal power.
South Africa Thisstructuraltransformationrequiresdiversifyingoureconomyawayfrom adependenceonfossilfuels,inajust,orderlyandequitablemanner,and informedbybestavailablescienceandsustainabledevelopmentpriorities.
Turkiye TürkiyeiscommittedtocontributingtheglobalgoalsoutlinedinthefirstGST.
UK InDecember2024,theUKpublishedtheCleanPower2030ActionPlansetting outapathwaytoacleanpowersystemby2030.Wewillconsultonour commitmenttonotissuenewoilandgaslicensestoexplorenewfields.The UKiscommittedtocleanpowerby2030andwehavealreadymadesignificant progressintransitioningawayfromfossilfuelsInSeptember2024,theUK wasthefirstG7economytoachievecoalpowerphaseout.
Recommendations for COP30
InordertoensurethecollectiveclimateandenergycommitmentsoftheParis AgreementandthefirstGlobalStocktakeareupheld,countriesmusturgently takeadditionalactiontoensurethe1.5°Ctargetremainsinreachandthe transitionawayfromfossilfuelsisaccelerated.
GreenpeaceiscallingonG20countriestoraisetheirambition-withdeveloped countriestakingthelead-andtoworktogethertocoordinateglobalaction groundedinequityandsharedresponsibilitytoachievemuchdeeperemissions reductions.TheworldcannotwaitforthenextGlobalStocktaketoagreeand advancethecollectiveactionneeded.COP30mustbeaturningpointwhere countriescommittoacredibleGlobalResponsePlantokeep1.5alive.
ThisGlobalResponsePlanmustinclude:
● Arecognitionofthecollectiveshortfallinemissionreduction commitmentsandanagreementtopeakglobalgreenhousegasemissions in2025anddeclinerapidlythereafteronapathto60%reductionby2035 (comparedto2019);
● Acommitmenttoreviseandstrengthen2035NDCsbyCOP31,whichmust includenationalplansandtimelinestotransitionawayfromfossil fuels,alignedwithequityandeachcountryʼsfairshare,andwhich contributetotheglobalgoalsonrenewableenergyandenergyefficiency;
● Anagreementona(existingornew)processwherecountriescandiscuss anddeliveracceleratedactiontotacklethemitigationambitiongapand theimplementationoftheGlobalStocktakeincludingsectoralaction;
● Theadoptionofadedicatedworkprogrammeonaroadmapforajust, orderlyandequitabletransitionawayfromfossilfuels;andtheadoption ofaForestActionPlanandmeasurestoaddresstheemissionscausedby theagricultureandland-usesectorby2030;
● AnagreementonexpandingthemandateoftheannualNDCSynthesis Reporttotrackandassesscollectiveprogresstowardsthemitigation relatedgoalsofthefirstGlobalStocktake.
IntegraltothesuccessofaGlobalResponsePlan,progressonclimatefinanceis vitaltoensureenhancedambitionindevelopingcountriesissupportedbythe necessarymeansofimplementation,includingcritically,theurgentscalingupof publicfinancebydevelopedcountries.Affirmingprogressiveenvironmental taxationinlinewiththepolluterpaysprincipleandCBDR-RC(Commonbut DifferentiatedResponsibilitiesandRespectiveCapabilities),andcommittingto taxcorporatepolluters-suchasprofittaxesonoilandgascorporations-willbe keytomobilisingtheadditionalresourcesneededformitigationaction,and protectingcommunitiesfromclimateimpacts
COP30mustalsodeliveraBelemActionMechanismonjusttransition-to coordinate,support,andscaleupjusttransitioneffortsworldwide,particularlyin developingcountries-ensuringthatactionstoreduceemissiondonotleave affectedcommunitiesbehindorworsenexistinginequalities