In 2018, these airports are the top two in the region based on available airline seats (see chart), followed by Jeddah and Riyadh’s King Khalid International – both in Saudi Arabia. King Khalid has pushed Abu Dhabi International into fifth place. This is partly thanks to King Khalid’s own strong development, but also due to a slowdown at Abu Dhabi, as well as hub carrier Etihad’s own strategic review and reduction in seat capacities since 2016. Overall, across more than 140 Middle East airports monitored by OAG (the analyst uses the IATA geographical definition which includes Israel), seat growth between 2014 and 2018 has averaged 33.7%. But this year it is expected to be just 0.9%, with flat or negative seat availability among the top five airports. The best capacity growth is forecast to be from King Khalid International (1.9%). Looking further down the list of the top 15 airports, the sixth seventh and eight-ranked airports – Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv, Kuwait International and Muscat International – look to be strong bets for duty free sales. Capacity growth in 2018 is forecast at 15.6%, 8.2% and 6.7% respectively, while all three have seen above-average seat growth in the four years to 2018. However, seats don’t tell the whole story. Qatar Airways, for example has continued to increase its capacity despite a blockade
against Qatar by GCC member countries due to political tensions that are now over two years old. According to ACI World, Hamad International has suffered badly with total passengers falling by -14.8% in the five months to May 2018. This compares with an average Middle East traffic downturn of -0.8% over the same period. Looking ahead to next year, the picture is somewhat mixed, but it looks as though Saudi Arabia will buoy the region. Its 27 airports witnessed a passenger traffic rise of 7.7% to 91.8 million in 2017, according to the General Authority of Civil Aviation. This was at a time when Middle East traffic grew by +4.7% (below the world average of 6.4%) based on ACI data. Meanwhile Dubai’s domination (88.2 million passengers in 2017) will not be challenged. “It is twice as large as its nearest competitor and I would expect to see growth of between 4-5% into 2019,” says John Grant, OAG’s Senior Analyst. “Doha will be pretty flat unless the current dispute with the other GCC members is resolved and they start flying to those destinations again in which case there may be some growth.” He notes that both Emirates and Etihad have “a quite significant order book of deliveries for 2019” which will likely mean more capacity going into 2020 and could see a resurgence for Abu Dhabi – provided those seats can be filled.
TOP 15 MIDDLE EAST AIRPORTS BASED ON ONE-WAY* SEAT CAPACITIES, 2018 Rank 2018
Airport
Seats 2017
Seats 2018
2018 vs 2014 (%)
2018 vs 2017 (%)
1
Dubai International
57,326,612
57,318,205
27.3
0.0
2
Doha
24,719,899
25,095,922
35.1
1.5
3
Jeddah
23,986,641
23,864,708
27.8
-0.5
4
Riyadh King Khalid Intl
17,991,788
18,336,016
37.4
1.9
5
Abu Dhabi International Apt
15,285,314
14,000,142
5.6
-8.4
6
Tel Aviv-yafo Ben Gurion International
11,174,641
12,920,069
59.5
15.6
7
Kuwait
10,197,902
11,038,492
45.6
8.2
8
Muscat
9,576,599
10,214,101
74.7
6.7
9
Tehran Mehrabad International Airport
7,714,009
7,871,006
53.3
2.0
10
Dammam
7,271,485
7,065,730
94.8
-2.8
11
Bahrain
6,574,594
6,616,742
9.0
0.6
12
Amman Queen Alia International Apt
5,280,569
5,611,302
14.7
6.3
13
Beirut
5,389,857
5,605,056
32.4
4.0
14
Sharjah
6,148,233
5,531,104
11.0
-10.0
15
Madinah
5,051,667
5,282,948
62.2
4.6
Source: OAG * Double the numbers for the total seats available in and out.
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