INTERNATIONAL
Escalating to De-escalate Are Iran and Saudi Arabia tensions on the brink of spilling over to dialogue? BY MIRIAM MOKHEMAR
T
he Islamic Republic of Iran had an important policy decision to make: continue upholding a deal that compels the international community to ease pressure or reestablish nuclear research aggravating a longstanding rivalry to re-exert its own influence. The Shia theocratic state chose the latter. Iran has attacked six oil tanks in the Strait of Hormuz, two of which belonged to Iran's longtime rival, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and one of which belonged to the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Furthermore, Iran’s attacks destroyed an advanced United States drone, and demonstrated Iran’s readiness to escalate aggression. Iran is hedging against the joint American, Israeli, and Saudi “maximum pressure” campaign, including actions such as withdrawing from The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (the Iran Nuclear Deal) and reinstated hefty economic sanctions against The Islamic Republic. What better way to attack this coalition than to refuel old tensions with a neighboring rival who is also a strong regional ally to the U.S., but is not a high profile nuclear state? Escalating conflict with Saudi Arabia was Iran’s best bet at hindering this campaign. In regard to the latest attack on Saudi oil fields, Chief Pentagon Spokesperson for the Department of Defense, Jonathan Hoffman, believes the Iranian attack poses an international problem because the sheer “number of airborne projectiles, was very sophisticated, coordinated” and the “dramatic impact on the global markets.” The air assault on the world’s largest crude oil processing plant and oil field forced Saudi Arabia to shut down at least half of its production operations, which triggered the largest spike in crude oil prices in decades, as well as renewed concerns of the potential for a broader conflict between Persian Gulf states that could exacerbate current civil wars in Syria, Yemen, Libya and other parts of the Middle East and North Africa region. The events in the Strait of Hormuz are pivotal in the ongoing tensions in the Middle East. According to the U.S. Energy and Information Administration, the Strait of Hormuz is “the world’s most important oil choke-
point” because of the large volumes of oil that flow through the waterway every day. Nearly every country with hefty decision-making power in the international economy is connected to oil or shipping coming out of the Gulf. Key players like Japan, China, South Korea, France, a n d Germany all rely on petroleum products, gas, and oil from the Persian Gulf, and shipping is the key bargaining chip for Iran in the standoff with the U.S. If shipping is threatened, the international community will have to take the U.S.-Iran spat, and its consequences, more seriously. Iran immediately got what it desired; Washington backpedaled on its aggression towards Tehran after President Trump stated he is open to talks with President Rouhani of Iran. The Islamic Republic has long sought to pull Saudi Arabia away from the United States - Israel alliance. Afshon Ostovar, an Iran expert at the Naval Postgraduate School, asserts that with recent lack of an American military response to the strikes on Saudi soil created the ideal opening for Iran to do just that. After Saudi Defense Ministry representative Col. Turki al-Maliki confirmed recovered drone and missile debris linked to Iranian technology, the Department of Defense released a statement that the Pentagon would deploy two hundred troops to Saudi Arabia, but refuse militarily retaliation against Iran for the oil field attacks. Saudi Arabia promptly sought its own solution to the conflict. The Prime Ministers of Iraq and Pakistan and officials from Kuwait and The United Arab Emirates have intervened on behalf of both states in an attempt to defuse tensions. According to the Global Security Review, Pakistan's Prime Minister, Imran Khan, spoke to Rouhani on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly to discuss steps to ease escalation between Riyadh and Tehran. The UAE held direct maritime security talks with Iran and has pulled back from the Yemeni civil conflict, in
which it supports the Hadi government along with the Saudis against the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels. In an Al-Jazeera interview, Ali Larijani, speaker of Iran’s Parliament, said, “Iran is open to starting a dialogue with Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region” and that dialogue between these two countries “could solve many of the region’s security and political problems.” Since the 1979 Iranian revolution, tensions between Sunnis and Shias deepened when Shia clerics took control of the country, offering support and giving hope to Shia populations in Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria. While the new regime launched an aggressive foreign policy of exporting Iran-style theocratic uprising in the region, Saudi Arabia saw this as a threat to its heavy influence in the Middle East, and to the Saudi monarchy itself. While actions, such as the Saudi execution of the Shia cleric Nimr al-Nimr in 2016, didn’t aid the jockeying theocracies, the root of the competition is motivated by a desire for regional influence not religion. Engaged in the struggle for power, the two states have used sectarianism to form easy political alliances and is why sectarianism has gotten as bad as it has in the Middle East. Sunni governments and rebels are more likely to turn to Saudi Arabia for help and in turn Shia groups turn to Iran. As conflicts progress, these sectarian molds intensify inviting Saudi and Iranian intervention, further polarizing countries on sectarian lines. If Saudi Arabia joins Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates in reaching out to Iran, it could undermine the Trump administration’s effort to build an international coalition that is containing the Iranians. However, the dialogue will have to overcome the Sunni-Shia sectarianism divide and years of power balancing in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and now Yemen, where both states have been stalemated in disastrous wars for over a decade. Iran has gotten the US president to rollback US policy by calling for talks and Saudi Arabia to open diplomatic channels for dialogue all because it started to escalate matters against international shipping. Tehran had made its points and should stop escalating tensions to pursue diplomacy instead.
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