IRAN ON THE EDGE

Escalating to De-escalate

Are Iran and Saudi Arabia tensions on the brink of spilling over to dialogue? BY MIRIAM MOKHEMAR

The Islamic Republic of Iran had an im- point” because of the large volumes of oil that portant policy decision to make: con- flow through the waterway every day. Nearly tinue upholding a deal that compels the every country with hefty decision-making international community to ease pressure or power in the international economy is conreestablish nuclear research aggravating a nected to oil or shipping coming out of the longstanding rivalry to re-exert its own in- Gulf. Key players like Japan, China, South fluence. The Shia theocratic state chose the Korea, France, and Germany all rely latter. Iran has attacked six oil tanks in the on petroleum Strait of Hormuz, two of which belonged to products, gas, Iran's longtime rival, the Kingdom of Sau- and oil from di Arabia, and one of which belonged to the the Persian Gulf, United Arab Emirates (UAE). Furthermore, and shipping is Iran’s attacks destroyed an advanced United the key bargaining States drone, and demonstrated Iran’s readi- chip for Iran in the ness to escalate aggression. standoff with the U.S.

Iran is hedging against the joint Ameri- If shipping is threatened, can, Israeli, and Saudi “maximum pressure” the international commucampaign, including actions such as with- nity will have to take the drawing from The Joint Comprehensive Plan U.S.-Iran spat, and its conseof Action (the Iran Nuclear Deal) and rein- quences, more seriously. Iran immestated hefty economic sanctions against The diately got what it desired; Washington Islamic Republic. What better way to attack backpedaled on its aggression towards Tehthis coalition than to refuel old tensions with ran after President Trump stated he is open a neighboring rival who is also a strong re- to talks with President Rouhani of Iran. The gional ally to the U.S., but is not a high profile Islamic Republic has long sought to pull Saunuclear state? Escalating conflict with Saudi di Arabia away from the United States - Israel Arabia was Iran’s best bet at hindering this alliance. Afshon Ostovar, an Iran expert at campaign. the Naval Postgraduate School, asserts that

In regard to the latest attack on Saudi oil with recent lack of an American military refields, Chief Pentagon Spokesperson for the sponse to the strikes on Saudi soil created the Department of Defense, Jonathan Hoffman, ideal opening for Iran to do just that. believes the Iranian attack poses an interna- After Saudi Defense Ministry representational problem because the sheer “number of tive Col. Turki al-Maliki confirmed recovered airborne projectiles, was very sophisticated, drone and missile debris linked to Iranian coordinated” and the “dramatic impact on technology, the Department of Defense rethe global markets.” leased a statement that the Pentagon would

The air assault on the deploy two hundred troops to Saudi Arabia, world’s largest crude oil but refuse militarily retaliation against Iran processing plant and oil for the oil field attacks. Saudi Arabia promptfield forced Sau- ly sought its own solution to the conflict. di Arabia to shut The Prime Ministers of Iraq down at least half and Pakistan and officials from of its production op- Kuwait and The United Arab erations, which trig- Emirates have intervened on gered the largest spike in behalf of both states in an crude oil prices in decades, attempt to defuse tenas well as renewed concerns sions. According of the potential for a broader to the Global conflict between Persian Gulf Security Restates that could exacerbate view, Pakistan's current civil wars in Syria, Yemen, Prime Minister, Libya and other parts of the Mid- Imran Khan, spoke to dle East and North Africa region. The Rouhani on the sidelines of the events in the Strait of Hormuz are pivotal United Nations General Assembly to in the ongoing tensions in the Middle East. discuss steps to ease escalation between

According to the U.S. Energy and Infor- Riyadh and Tehran. The UAE held direct mation Administration, the Strait of Hormuz maritime security talks with Iran and has is “the world’s most important oil choke- pulled back from the Yemeni civil conflict, in which it supports the Hadi government along with the Saudis against the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels. In an Al-Jazeera interview, Ali Larijani, speaker of Iran’s Parliament, said, “Iran is open to starting a dialogue with Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region” and that dialogue between these two countries “could solve many of the region’s security and political problems.” Since the 1979 Iranian revolution, tensions between Sunnis and Shias deepened when Shia clerics took control of the country, offering support and giving hope to Shia populations in Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria. While the new regime launched an aggressive foreign policy of exporting Iran-style theocratic uprising in the region, Saudi Arabia saw this as a threat to its heavy influence in the Middle East, and to the Saudi monarchy itself.

While actions, such as the Saudi execution of the Shia cleric Nimr al-Nimr in 2016, didn’t aid the jockeying theocracies, the root of the competition is motivated by a desire for regional influence not religion. Engaged in the struggle for power, the two states have used sectarianism to form easy political alliances and is why sectarianism has gotten as bad as it has in the Middle East. Sunni governments and rebels are more likely to turn to Saudi Arabia for help and in turn Shia groups turn to Iran. As conflicts progress, these sectarian molds intensify inviting Saudi and Iranian intervention, further polarizing countries on sectarian lines.

If Saudi Arabia joins Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates in reaching out to Iran, it could undermine the Trump administration’s effort to build an international coalition that is containing the Iranians. However, the dialogue will have to overcome the Sunni-Shia sectarianism divide and years of power balancing in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and now Yemen, where both states have been stalemated in disastrous wars for over a decade.

Iran has gotten the US president to rollback US policy by calling for talks and Saudi Arabia to open diplomatic channels for dialogue all because it started to escalate matters against international shipping. Tehran had made its points and should stop escalating tensions to pursue diplomacy instead.