G4S Asia Emerging Risks Report

ASIA EMERGING RISKS REPORT 2020

g4s.us C O R P O R AT E RISK SERVICES

TABLE OF CONTENTS Biographies 3

Sanjay Verma 3

Robert L. Dodge 4 Ian Betts 5 Introduction 6 Bangladesh 8 Cambodia 10 Mainland China 12 Hong Kong, China 14 India 16 Indonesia 18 Japan 20 Laos 22 Malaysia 24 Myanmar 26 Nepal 28 Pakistan 30 Papua New Guinea 32 Philippines 34 Singapore 36 South Korea 38 Sri Lanka 40 Thailand 42 Vietnam 44 Outlook 46 G4S Corporate Risk Services 47 Hill & Associates 47 SROC Key Capabilities 48 G4S Asia Presence 50 Contacts 51

Disclaimer: This report was prepared for the exclusive use of the recipient. It may contain proprietary, confidential information of either the recipient or G4S Corporate Risk Services (CRS) and is not intended for public disclosure. Any dissemination or reproduction of the report is governed by the applicable contract or letter of agreement between the recipient and CRS. Any disclosures outside of the contract terms must be authorized in writing by CRS. The findings in this report are based on information from open and private sources, and information to which CRS was provided access. CRS does not assume any responsibility or liability for the failure to detect, identify or make known any additional hazards, threats or areas of risk beyond what is identified in the report. Additionally, CRS makes no representations or warranties with respect to the recipient’s use of the report nor to any third party relating to information contained in this report. All images used in this report are licensed.

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SANJAY VERMA REGIONAL CEO, ASIA PACIFIC, G4S

With comprehensive operations throughout the region, the Asia Pacific region is an essential part of the global G4S presence. We are proud to leverage our unmatched footprint, our solid track record and our committed talent base to partner with our clients and help them with their security and risk mitigation needs. We can’t deny that risk is evolving and changing in Asia, and that the change is happening fast. The tremendous development that we’ve seen in Asia over the last few decades has brought enormous change to the region as nations, economies and commerce in general grapple with modern governance and the inherent risks of progress.

For those working in or traveling to Asia, the risks still abound. In this report, we have identified the key risk factors and highlighted the current status of each, presenting the reader with a high level summary of the situation, country by country, while also aiming to pinpoint current hot topics and emerging risks. The risks vary widely from country to country, upon political stability, the propensity for civil unrest, the prevalence of crime and the precedent of what are often devastating natural disasters. We have aimed to bring a systematic approach to the analysis, assessing each country by way of a summary risk matrix.

At the same time, the benefits to working, investing and operating in Asia have never been higher. The region has seen the rise of global powerhouses in China and India. It hosts one of the world’s most important trading blocs in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and its constituent nations have some of the highest economic growth rates in the world. Any traveller to the region will know that these countries have rich histories, diverse populations and sophisticated cultures. With such variation, yet at the same time deep commonalities, the region demands intimate knowledge and expertise in order to operate safely and take advantage of the enormous economic growth opportunities that have already become a key component of global economic mix.

At G4S, in line with our global approach, we work to support our clients in Asia with integrated security solutions to the challenges they face in their operations. These include bringing in the latest technology through innovative platforms and by way of our risk consulting business, Hill & Associates, whose analysts have contributed to this report. These solutions are changing the face of security management in Asia and we look forward to partnering with you in helping your organization create additional value through better understanding and managing risks.

ASIA EMERGING RISKS REPORT

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ROBERT DODGE PRESIDENT, G4S CORPORATE RISK SERVICES

We are proud to present our Asia Emerging Risks report.

Our high-level analysis is designed to provide our global clients with a relevant and accurate picture of the major and emerging security risks across the region.This enables stakeholders to deploy proper risk mitigation strategies to protect their employees and assets abroad. Asia continues to be one of the world’s most diverse and complicated regions with many security challenges.

This report represents the evolution of G4S Corporate Risk Services and our Security Risk Operations Center (SROC) in Jupiter, Florida. Our strategically equipped operations center is designed to streamline the process of intelligence collection on a global scale. This allows us to leverage our insightful regional analysts and key operational management stakeholders in the Asia Region.

Our highly refined analytics and intelligence reporting enables us to provide our clients with valuable insight, with more than 158,000 employees across more than 15 locations throughout Asia.

We appreciate your readership and hope that our Emerging Travel Risks report acts as a key supplement to your organization’s risk management strategy.

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IAN BETTS

DIRECTOR, MAINLAND SOUTHEAST ASIA, HILL & ASSOCIATES

Asia is undoubtedly today one of the world’s most important economic regions. Within its boundaries lie enormous manufacturing powerhouses that supply production for factories around the globe. To the west is India in South Asia, a regional giant with growing influence on the sub-continent; to the east, China, a world superpower, staking a claim to a seat at the highest table for matters of commerce and industry. Between them, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which has emerged as a vigorous and growing trading bloc, a global hub of manufacturing, production and export, a leading trade partner for the European Union, the United States, Japan and other regional powers, battered by the impacts of COVID-19 yet energized by the recent signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

This report aims to identify and highlight the risks that visitors to Asia may encounter while travelling in the region.

Written by our analysts based in Hill & Associates’ country offices in the major cities of Asia, the report reflects the diversity of the team as well as the terrific variety of risks that may be found in the region.

For my part, having spent more than 25 year in the region, Asia is home. But it’s clearly a place of evolving and everchanging risk. New technologies and industries are emerging, set against the wax and wane of regional powers and the impact of political developments in the west, in Africa, the Americas, the Middle East and Europe. All of this makes for a tremendously rich risk culture in Asia. We hope that after reading this report, you’ll agree. Safe travels!

ASIA EMERGING RISKS REPORT

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C O R P O R AT E RISK SERVICES

INTRODUCTION G4S Corporate Risk Services’ Asia Emerging Risks report aims to provide a comprehensive tactical overview of the preeminent risks impacting 19 of Asia’s top business and travel destinations. In collaboration with Hill & Associates, a G4S company with locations and analysts across Asia, our global intelligence capabilities identified and evaluated top emerging travel risks. Local intelligence allows G4S to track emerging trends in realtime to provide our readers with accurate and concise situational awareness. This report focuses on risks posed to travelers, rather than residents.

Conducting business abroad brings many unforeseen challenges, even to the most experienced traveler. As we explore risk across Asia, we break down our assessment across risk types: political stability, crime, terrorism/insurgency, civil unrest, emergency response capabilities, health and environmental threats. We have assessed the risk level for each of these factors for each location, applying an easy-to-reference color-coded risk matrix. A low risk is indicated by the color green, medium is assigned as yellow and a high risk is indicated with red. Finally, we highlight hot spots for risk in the location and emerging trends. This report frequently refer to ‘locations,’ rather than ‘countries,’ as Hong Kong is assessed separately from mainland China. This decision was made due to their highly different threat landscapes.

For each of the 19 locations covered in this report, we examine the political situation.

Recent elections, such as that which took place in Myanmar in November, could have an impact on travel safety and security. Equally, regional elections in Indonesia in December may cause concern in what is ASEAN’s largest economy. Malaysia too is seeing some instability in politics, which observers are watching keenly, and Thailand is faced by daily pro-democracy rallies the like of which have not been seen for years. The key points that affect political stability in each location are captured in this report.

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For visitors and travelers anywhere, crime and the consequences of crime can be harrowing and even disastrous. This is no less the case in Asia. For each location we identify the main crime types that are prevalent, focusing on those that are most likely to impact a visitor.These may be the opportunistic and petty crimes that are reported in cities around the world, but also the more serious crimes that are rarer but which can still occur (assault, kidnap, armed robbery, etc.) The threat posed by organized crime and cyber-crime is also reviewed.

As in other parts of the world, terrorism/insurgency poses a significant threat to some Asian countries, and travelers must make themselves aware of the risks. Militant extremist groups operate throughout the Indian sub-continent and in prominent Southeast Asian nations such as Indonesia. Past terrorist attacks by groups affiliated with either al-Qaeda or the socalled Islamic State (IS), have targeted hotels, shopping malls and houses of worship, where expatriates, travelers and visitors gather and meet. Though the chances of being caught in a terrorist attack are small, this is a risk that cannot be ignored.

The countries of Asia, like other parts of the world, are subject to socio-economic changes and civil unrest. Protest movements can emerge and demonstrations are held on a diverse portfolio of political, social and economic issues and grievances. These can disrupt business and affect a location’s overall security posture, often resulting in safety concerns for visitors. For some countries, civil unrest is par for the course. Indonesia has seen unrest over its Omnibus “Job Creation” bill, and a pro-democracy movement in Thailand seeks broad reforms. Malaysia is undergoing a period of political stability, while Myanmar’s recent election has been marred by complaints from the military. We monitor these emerging fault lines and asses their impact on travel security.

A country’s capability to respond to emergencies is key to understanding risk. We review emergency response capabilities for each location in the report, looking at major cities as well as remote areas, assessing response times and the nature and quality of service provision.

Such information can literally save lives.

COVID-19 has devastated the economies of much of Asia and risk may intensify as a result and in its aftermath as commercial activities resume. The pandemic has restricted access to what in some cases were already poor public health facilities, compounding the risk to health across much of the region. While China recovered quickly from the pandemic and countries like Thailand imposed swift and successful mitigation measures, other countries have fared less well and travel remains difficult and in some cases impossible. These are assessments that we aim to bring out in the report, in addition to a review of other ongoing major health concerns, such as malaria, dengue and overall medical care capabilities.

Rounding out the set of risk factors, we can’t ignore the threat posed by natural disasters in a region impacted by tsunami, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions with the ‘Ring of Fire’ at its core. The monsoon climate can bring floods and landslides to many Asian countries.

Heat waves and other unusual weather patterns are increasingly prevalent, and the impacts of global warming and climate change are manifesting in rising sea levels, erosion and other security concerns.

Finally, each location includes “hot spots” and emerging risk trends, to focus the potential traveler’s attention on growing concerns and what the future may hold.

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BANGLADESH RISK SCALE

Bangladesh’s government is led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina whose Awami League par ty secured a convincing victory in the parliamentary election two years ago. Growing tensions between the Awami League and its rival, the Bangladesh National Par ty (BNP), may trigger isolated violence. A rise in political and religious violence has increasingly polarized the country between moderate and secular groups on one side and radical Islamists on the other. Radical groups are successfully reaching the population though the Internet, with increasing recruitment through effective propaganda.

CRIME

The crime rate in Bangladesh has increased over the last few years. Mugging, burglary, financial scams, petty drug crimes and assaults constitute the majority of criminal activities in Dhaka and other cities. Growing violence against women has become a matter of serious concern. According to Dhaka-based human rights organization Aino-Salish Kendra, more than 900 women or girls were raped in the first nine months of 2020.

Law enforcement agencies often face criticism for their slow response, and officials’ lack of gender sensitivity. According to the Women and Children Repression Prevention Tribunal, only 3% of cases relating to violence against women and children result in a conviction. Meanwhile, petty crime tends to increase during festival days when roads and public places are especially crowded.

Criminals may target foreign nationals.

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TERRORISM

The risk of terrorism in Bangladesh has increased since the 2016 Holey Artisan Bakery attack in Dhaka.

The most significant group operating in Bangladesh is Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB). Some groups are inspired by Islamic State, including NeoJMB and Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT). Al-Qaeda splinter groups, especially al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), seek to gain a foothold.

Attacks perpetrated by ‘lone wolves’ or single violent extremists (SVS) have increased, as has the risk of attacks against foreign nationals.

CIVIL UNREST

Bangladesh has experienced increasing protests over social issues such as road safety and women’s security in recent years. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy and employment has led to labor unions protesting nationwide, especially in the industrial belts of Dhaka, Chattogram, Khulna and Sylhet. Major student protests over road safety also occurred in August 2018. Protests can cause congestion and clashes are possible, including with the police.

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EMERGENCY RESPONSE

Bangladesh has a centralized 24/7 emergency support system to connect callers with the police, fire and ambulance services. However, the operational capability of emergency response units outside of major cities is limited. Police and medical services in Dhaka, Chattogram and Sylhet are adequate but response time for ambulances is slow.

HEALTH

The COVID-19 pandemic has put enormous pressure on the country’s healthcare system.

Bangladesh saw an increase in positive cases in November, indicating a resurgence of the virus.

While the government has denied any plans to impose a lockdown in the country, authorities could impose restrictions in Dhaka and Chattogram, which remain the epicenters of the outbreak.

Vector-borne diseases like malaria and dengue are common, but low public awareness about health practices is a major concern. Healthcare facilities are often basic outside major cities like Dhaka and Chattogram.

ASIA EMERGING RISKS REPORT BANGLADESH

ENVIRONMENT

Bangladesh, a coastal country, is vulnerable to floods, cyclones, storm surges, river bank erosion, salinity intrusion and tsunami. It is one of the world’s most disaster-prone countries, where more than 80% of people and one-third of the landmass are exposed to floods. Rising sea levels due to global warming are a major concern.

HOT SPOTS

Chattogram Hill Tracts (CHT) is seeing an increased threat of armed robbery and kidnapping in remote areas.

The COVID-19 pandemic may re-emerge, forcing authorities to impose restrictions in Dhaka and other places.

EMERGING TRENDS

Growing religious polarization and fundamentalism pose a significant threat to the country’s internal security.

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CAMBODIA RISK SCALE

Cambodia is a constitutional monarchy, with the Prime Minister acting as the head of government. Hun Sen of the Cambodian People’s Par ty has served as Prime Minister since 1985. Democracy has deteriorated recently, with the primary opposition, the Cambodian National Rescue Par ty, banned and dissolved ahead of the 2018 elections. Cambodia is now effectively a one-par ty state, but is relatively stable. Relations with Vietnam, Thailand and Laos are tense due to historic reasons and border disputes that periodically result in conflict. Anti-Thai and anti-Vietnamese sentiment also periodically poses a risk to nationals from those counties. Cambodia has grown closer to China in recent years, resulting in increasing tensions with the United States.

CRIME

Cambodia has a moderate-to-high level of crime.

While the majority of crimes are petty crimes, violent crimes — including incidents of kidnap for ransom — have been reported. Gun ownership is prevalent, and gun-related crimes are not uncommon. Isolated incidents involving explosive devices remain possible due to the availability of weapons and a relatively poor security apparatus.

A grenade explosion that occurred in Phnom Penh in 2016 was attributed to a personal dispute.

Cambodia is a dollarized economy, and counterfeit U.S. dollars are common. Sihanoukville, a resort and casino town that has seen a large influx of Chinese investment and tourism, experiences significant violent and petty crime. Robberies are significantly more likely to result in violence if the victim resists.

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TERRORISM

There is no significant transnational or domestic terrorist presence known in Cambodia. However, there remains a risk of international terrorism globally.

CIVIL UNREST

Protests and demonstrations take place frequently, mostly in the capital of Phnom Penh. The level of participation can be in the thousands, and clashes are not uncommon. Protests in 2013-14 over alleged electoral fraud led to clashes with police in which four people were shot and killed.

EMERGENCY RESPONSE

Cambodia’s emergency and medical services are not well developed. Local law enforcement can be unresponsive. Both public and private health facilities are considered poor. Private clinics and hospitals, and Thai-run hospitals in Phnom Penh and Siem Reap may be slightly better. Medical evacuation to Thailand or Singapore may be required for more serious medical cases. English is not widely spoken.

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HEALTH

Although Cambodia’s official infection numbers have been questioned, the country has fared relatively well in the COVID-19 pandemic. A combination of early testing, contact-tracing, and partial lockdowns proved effective, while sociological conditions, including a largely rural population, are credited with limiting spread.

A small cluster detected in early November was quickly contained with similar measures.

Separately, there is a significant risk of various food/water-borne (hepatitis A, typhoid, cholera) and mosquito-borne (yellow fever, Japanese encephalitis) illnesses in Cambodia.

ENVIRONMENT

The rainy season lasts from May to November, when flooding is common on the Mekong River and Tonle Sap Lake.

ASIA EMERGING RISKS REPORT CAMBODIA

HOT SPOTS

Phnom Penh is subject to significant crime, particularly in the Riverfront and Beoung Keng Kang (BKK) areas. Sihanoukville is also a crime hot spot, with both local and foreign (mostly Chinese) criminal gangs operating in the area. Land mines and unexploded ordnance are found in remote and rural areas, especially in the provinces of Battambang, Banteay Meanchey, Pursat, Siem Reap, Pailin, and Kampong Thom. Travelers should strictly avoid veering off well-trodden paths.

EMERGING TRENDS

Rising dissatisfaction among young people, due mainly to the slow pace of development, could fuel unrest.

China’s growing influence in Cambodia is geopolitically significant in the immediate Mekong region, in Southeast Asia more broadly due to Cambodia’s membership in ASEAN, and with regard to the United States, which perceives China’s infrastructure projects to present a possible military threat.

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MAINLAND CHINA RISK SCALE

Mainland China is very stable. Economic achievement, intense anti-corruption campaigns and mitigation of the COVID-19 pandemic underpin widespread public suppor t. President Xi Jinping has consolidated power, and his leadership is likely to contribute to stability in the near to medium term. Historically unstable regions, principally par ts of Xinjiang and Tibet, have improved, although reliance on heavy security raises questions about long-term prospects.

Geopolitically, 2019-2020 was a turning point for China, with foreign nations increasingly pressuring China on various issues, including economic policies and perceived territorial aggression. Stability in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea has deteriorated, with the risk of a military encounter with the United States increasing. Conflict along the disputed Sino-Indian border has also re-emerged, although the actions of both nations indicate a desire to limit escalation.

CRIME

Violent crime is rare throughout the country.

However, petty crime, including pickpocketing and scams is common. Property theft is increasingly uncommon. While the basic cybersecurity risk is moderate in China, high-level intellectual property theft is a significant concern.The Chinese government strictly monitors the internet and communications platforms and travelers should have no expectation of digital privacy. Travelers should refrain from discussing controversial topics as well as direct criticism of the government in public forums both on and offline. While the risk of serious repercussions is low, such conduct could potentially result in being barred from Chinese social media, and reputation risk.

TERRORISM

There is no significant transnational terrorist presence known in China. Ethnic and religious tensions between the Han majority and Uyghur minority have led to attacks in the Xinjiang region, and occasionally elsewhere. However, aggressive and controversial security operations appear to have largely mitigated this threat.

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CIVIL UNREST

Major unrest is rare in mainland China, although small- to medium-scale, usually non-violent protests are common. These often stem from unpopular local government policies or labor/ commercial disputes. Unrest in minority areas has declined due to aggressive security policies.

Large protests occasionally occur in response to geopolitical events.

EMERGENCY RESPONSE

English-speaking emergency responders are limited in major cities and rare elsewhere. Medical services in major cities are modern, but frequently do not meet Western standards of quality. Major cities also have private hospitals and clinics, although they command a significant price premium. Response time for ambulances is slow.

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HEALTH

A decisive response to COVID-19 has meant that the epidemic has largely been resolved since late April, with life and travel largely normalized since May. Subsequent outbreaks have been quickly contained. Foreign nationals sometimes attract additional health scrutiny, especially in lowertier municipalities and rural areas. Pollution and food safety remain highly problematic, but have improved markedly in recent years.

ENVIRONMENT

Seasonal heavy rain in eastern and southern China frequently result in severe flooding in spring and summer. Earthquakes in some parts of the country are also a risk, and buildings may not meet statutory requirements.

ASIA EMERGING RISKS REPORT MAINLAND CHINA

HOT SPOTS

ƒ Xinjiang and Tibet have long been politically sensitive. Safety is slightly less guaranteed, and access remains limited. ƒ High-traffic areas and tourist attractions frequently have higher levels of petty crime.

EMERGING TRENDS

Intensifying geopolitical tensions with the United States, Canada, Australia, India and others has fueled concerns about increased risk to foreign nationals, particularly with regard to arbitrary detentions. However, for the vast majority of people, arbitrary detention is very unlikely. Those at risk include those working directly in politically sensitive areas, people with a background in the military or foreign intelligence services, Chinese citizens with foreign passports and key personnel working in strategically important sectors.

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HONG KONG, CHINA RISK SCALE

The Hong Kong government remains stable and relatively well-functioning in the wake of the 2019-2020 political crisis and pro-democracy protest movement, though it still faces a range of unresolved problems and uncer tainties and suffers a low level of public confidence. The passage of the Hong Kong National Security Law (NatSec Law) in June 2020 raised serious questions about the Special Administrative Region’s (SAR) autonomy, in par ticular the viability of the political opposition and the continued independence of the cour ts. In par t due to the NatSec Law, the Hong Kong government has emerged from the crisis in a stronger position, with the weakened opposition less able to maneuver substantially. Certain preconditions for major unrest persist, including a disaffected and disenfranchised public, but it is uncer tain whether fur ther protests will be triggered.

CRIME

Hong Kong’s crime rate experienced a surge during the period of social unrest, with substantial increases in robbery and burglary rates. However, with protests quelled, these figures are expected to decline, particularly as police resume normal activities. Even at elevated rates, crime in Hong Kong remains relatively low compared to other countries and territories in the region, and it is generally safe to walk on the streets.

TERRORISM

A number of incidents involving homemade bombs employing high-explosives and remote-detonation capabilities, discoveries of bombmaking materials and weapons seizures during the protest period fueled concerns of a nascent “home grown” terrorist threat in Hong Kong but this appears to have subsided. Incidents ceased with a spate of arrests and the fading of protests, although further activity cannot be ruled out. It should also be noted that local and Mainland authorities have liberally applied the term “terrorism” to disruptive protest activities, and may continue to use this term as it pressures opposition forces. There is no significant transnational terrorist presence known in Hong Kong.

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CIVIL UNREST

Due to a combination of increased enforcement (including via the new NatSec Law), COVID-19 and protester “fatigue,” the unrest that began in March 2019 was essentially over by June-July 2020, although periodic gatherings continue to occur around certain sensitive dates. Travelers should be aware of the possibility of localized disruptions and enhanced police presence on key dates in certain areas, for example monthly and yearly anniversaries of the Aug. 31 “Prince Edward Incident,” referencing an event in 2019, or the more substantial July 1 “Handover Day.”

EMERGENCY RESPONSE

Hong Kong’s healthcare and emergency response systems are highly developed. Emergency rooms at public hospitals, however, are sometimes overcrowded, and travellers should be aware of long queues for routine treatment should they visit the public hospital. English is an effective means of communication in emergencies.

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HEALTH

HOT SPOTS

Although the city never experienced COVID-19 outbreaks comparable to the severity of that seen in Wuhan, it has struggled to control the virus. Antiepidemic measures include the temporary closure of restaurants, entertainment venues and schools, the renewed enforcement of mask-wearing and other common-sense measures. The city is likely to experience periodic outbreak and response cycles until an effective vaccine is widely available.

ƒ Crowded tourist areas have a slightly elevated risk of petty crime. ƒ Protests tend to occur repeatedly in the same locations. Mong Kong and Prince Edward in Kowloon, and Central, Admiralty and Victoria Park on Hong Kong Island are often the location of demonstrations and unrest.

ENVIRONMENT

EMERGING TRENDS

The primary environmental risk in Hong Kong is seasonal typhoons, which occasionally lead to temporary city shutdowns. Extreme heat and humidity can also be a concern in the summer, particularly for vulnerable individuals.

Although the protest movement has subsided, Hong Kong will remain the focus of geopolitical tensions. Of particular concern is the potential for the NatSec law to impact foreign travelers, especially as it claims extraterritorial jurisdiction.

However, early signs are that these aspects of the law will only be enforced sparingly, and that its main targets will be those with a clear involvement in opposition politics.

ASIA EMERGING RISKS REPORT HONG KONG, CHINA

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INDIA RISK SCALE

India has a stable government at the federal level. However, political tensions are likely to rise amid a large number of Legislative Assembly elections scheduled over the next two years. Major upsets at the regional level may trigger localized political instability. Potential violent clashes and shutdowns may adversely impact travel. Cross-border militancy in Kashmir following the decades-long insurgency in the nor th-eastern region may also impact on safe travel.

CRIME

The majority of crime in India is opportunistic in nature. The latest National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) report revealed that India reported more than 5 million crimes in 2019 — a 1.6% year-on-year increase. Crime against members of ethnic minorities rose by 26.5% from 2018-19 and data show that women are increasingly the victims of crime. An exponential growth in cybercrime has become a matter of serious concern for businesses relying on virtual data storage and online financial transactions. India reported a 63.5% increase in cyber-crime from 2018-19.

Petty crime such as snatch-thefts are expected to increase in the cities and suburbs as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting decline in socio-economic conditions for many.

CIVIL UNREST

Protests can break out over various issues ranging from gender-specific crime to controversial legislation. Labor unions may also stage protests over workers’ rights. Protests can be spontaneous but are often disruptive and cause congestion.

EMERGENCY RESPONSE

The response of the police and other emergency services can be slow. Police forces are often poorlyresourced and work under heavy stress, especially in the major cities, but private sector participation in emergency response services is increasing.

Responses are more reliable in major cities, and rural areas often have to depend on rudimentary services in times of crisis.

TERRORISM

India is at high risk from terrorism, which further increases at major festivals and commemorations such as Independence Day (Aug. 15) and Republic Day (Jan. 26). Groups operating in India include Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and al-Qaeda. Islamic State (IS) is also trying to secure a foothold in the country. Left-wing extremism has also persisted for more than 50 years and continues to pose a threat to national security.

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HEALTH

The COVID-19 pandemic has placed massive pressure on India’s health system as the country is among the worst-impacted. Other health concerns include mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue and the Zika virus. Local medical facilities may not meet western standards, especially in remote areas. Public spending on healthcare is around 1.15% of GDP, but the government aims to increase this to 2.5% by 2025. Private care is available in larger cities, but remains expensive.

The COVID-19 pandemic has further stretched the medical system, as well as impacted medical tourism.

ENVIRONMENT

Flooding occurs annually in India, especially along the vast Gangetic region. Megacities like Delhi and Mumbai experience heavy flooding during the monsoon rains, and tropical summers are increasingly marked by heat waves. Landslides are common and global warming is contributing to rising sea levels. The World Wildlife Fund for Nature (WWF) predicts that 30 Indian cities may experience acute water scarcity by 2050.

ASIA EMERGING RISKS REPORT INDIA

HOT SPOTS

Significant communications and travel restrictions are likely in the union territory of Jammu and Kashmir due to cross-border militancy, and also in the Ladakh region due to the build-up of troops near the border with China.

Delhi and other investment hubs such as Gurugram and Noida see high crime rates.

Carjacking and crimes against women are especially high there.

EMERGING TRENDS

India remains closed to international flights with few exceptions due to the COVID-19 outbreak.

Travel restrictions are likely to remain while the country responds to COVID-19.

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INDONESIA RISK SCALE

Indonesia is led by President Joko Widodo and a broad coalition of centrist par ties. Politicians and other influential figures frequently revert to identity politics, exacerbating ethnic and religious fault lines and conflicts. Political par ties can broadly be categorized as those who wish to see Islam play a larger role in politics and life, and those aiming for a more secular society.

CRIME

Crimes are mostly non-violent and gun crime is rare. However, crime reports are unreliable. Crime is often opportunistic in nature and both locals and expatriates are targeted in Greater Jakarta, at all times of day.Thefts, robberies and assaults occur, and nighttime burglaries of expatriate homes are increasing, as are scams, fraud and cyber-crime.

Burglaries at upscale residences can occur even when the owners are present.

TERRORISM

There is a high risk of terrorism nationwide, with plots continuing to be disrupted. Terrorists often target police and government offices, but western assets have been and may continue to be targeted. The Islamic State (IS)-linked Jamaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD) remains a major threat.

A plot by members of al-Qaeda-affiliate Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) earlier this year raised concerns about the possible emergence of AQ splinter groups. Separately, violent clashes continue between Indonesian security forces and armed insurgents seeking an independent state in Papua.

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CIVIL UNREST

Demonstrations are common in major cities and industrial areas such as Jakarta, Surabaya, Medan and Makassar. Labor and student rallies tend to be peaceful, but can turn violent. Demonstrations against changes to labor laws led to violence in October 2020. In September 2019, two died and hundreds were injured amid unrest prompted by law reforms. The protests were among the biggest student rallies since those in 1998 toppled the Suharto government.

EMERGENCY RESPONSE

Indonesian emergency services, police, fire and ambulances are often rudimentary, and emergency numbers may not always be answered. Some may be answered in Bahasa. It is often more effective to physically go to the Indonesian authorities to ask for their help rather than to wait for emergency services to respond.The capacity of emergency and rescue services to deal with large natural disasters is limited, although improving.

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HEALTH

The government has struggled to bring COVID-19 under control. Testing is limited, and there is poor compliance with health protocols. Authorities are unlikely to impose restrictive measures even if cases increase, but are more likely to limit business operations and activities at public venues. Routine medical care is available in all major cities. Rabies, as well as mosquito-borne diseases, are a risk across Indonesia. Water-borne, food-borne, parasitic and other infectious diseases (including cholera, hepatitis, measles, typhoid and tuberculosis) are also prevalent.

ENVIRONMENT

Volcanic eruptions and earthquakes occur regularly and there is a risk of tsunami. Indonesia is home to more active volcanoes than any other country. Ash clouds can affect flight schedules and operations. Floods and landslides occur regularly during the rainy season from October to March, often disrupting key services.

ASIA EMERGING RISKS REPORT INDONESIA

HOT SPOTS

Poso in Central Sulawesi is impacted by terrorist activity due to the presence of Islamist extremists.

Civilians are at risk in Papua, due to fighting between security forces and the Free Papua Movement (OPM).

Much of eastern Indonesia is subject to earthquakes measuring above 5.0-magnitude.

EMERGING TRENDS

A potential alliance between IS-affiliates and hardline members of JI could heighten the threat of terrorism.

The recent return of Rizieq Shihab, leader of the Islamic Defenders Front (FPI), is expected to increase political tensions.

Anti-Chinese sentiment is rising where Chinese workers are employed at industrial areas in several regions.

Indonesia is increasingly countering Chinese incursions into the waters of its northern Natuna Islands.

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JAPAN RISK SCALE

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stepped down in September 2020, and was replaced by Yoshihide Suga in a parliamentary vote. Suga is expected to broadly continue the policies of his predecessor. Japan is generally very politically stable. Regional geopolitics, however, have been turbulent. Relations with South Korea worsened in 2018 with the re-emergence of unresolved historical issues related to WWII. Tensions calmed slightly in 2020, and the ascendance of Suga could provide an oppor tunity for a reset. Japan’s relations with China are also complicated. While relations began to thaw in 2018 after several years of strain following the flare-up of a territorial dispute, China’s military strengthening is putting pressure on Japan to do the same.

Again, it is unclear how the Prime Ministership of Suga may impact relations.

CRIME

Crime levels are low, with violent crime even rarer. According to the United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime, Japan’s homicide rate was among the lowest in the world in 2018. While more prevalent, levels of petty crime are also low by regional standards, being most common in crowded urban areas and entertainment districts.

TERRORISM

There is no significant transnational terrorist presence known in Japan. Incidents of domestic terrorism have occurred, but this threat is considered to be low.

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CIVIL UNREST

Protests in Japan are rare, and are generally peaceful when they occur. Some recent issues that have triggered protests in Japan have included nuclear power, government efforts to revise the Japanese constitution and attempts to end Japan’s 40-year rice subsidy. Anti-American demonstrations also occur in Okinawa, where there are tensions over the U.S. military presence.

EMERGENCY RESPONSE

While medical care in Japan is highly modernized, English-speaking physicians and medical facilities of western standards are difficult to find in major urban centers in Japan, and even more limited in rural areas.

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HEALTH

Comparative success in handling COVID-19 has occurred despite a lack of widespread public testing. As of late November, the seven-day moving average for new cases accelerated to an all-time high of more than 2,000, prompting the government to reconsider policies aimed at increasing domestic travel and eating out.

However, the situation is expected to remain under control. The central government has limited power to enforce a nationwide response, and has instead relied on “recommendations” — this is not expected to change. Overall, standards of public health are similar to those of the United States.

ENVIRONMENT

Japan is prone to natural disasters, including typhoons, torrential seasonal rain, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and tsunami. Japan’s population and industry are confined to flatlands in between mountainous terrain, which magnifies the impact of natural disasters.

ASIA EMERGING RISKS REPORT JAPAN

HOT SPOTS

The Roppongi and Kabuki-cho entertainment districts have higher rates of petty crime Southern Japan is more susceptible to flooding and natural disasters.

Anti-American sentiment has risen due to outbreaks of COVID-19 on U.S. military bases, particularly in Okinawa, where the local population has long resented the American military presence.

EMERGING TRENDS

The replacement of Abe by Suga ushers in a period of relative uncertainty.

Geopolitical tensions with South Korea and China are a long-term concern. It is uncertain how these issues will develop under Suga’s leadership. Recent diplomacy between Beijing and Tokyo suggests a balanced approach by both sides.

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LAOS RISK SCALE

Laos is a one-par ty state with limited political rights and freedoms, but the government has been largely stable in recent years. Small pockets of resistance remain opposed to the government, such as armed groups in Xaisomboun province, although insurgency has weakened over the past decades. In more recent years there have also been attacks perpetrated by armed groups against Chinese nationals in Xaisomboun, as Chinese infrastructure projects are implemented. There is a growing undercurrent of anti-Chinese sentiment as the government draws closer to China.

CRIME

The capital, Vientiane, is generally considered to be low risk for crime, although petty crime is not uncommon. Areas such as Xaysomboun are considered to be of higher crime risk as armed, organized gangs operate there, often targeting travelers and perpetrating robberies, particularly on Route 13.

TERRORISM

While terrorist attacks are not common, attacks have been perpetrated against Chinese nationals in less-secure areas, particularly in Xaisomboun where the government has struggled to ensure security. In January 2016 two Chinese nationals were killed in an explosion, and in June 2017 a Chinese national was shot. Violence perpetrated by armed groups against Chinese nationals also occurred in Luang Prabang in March 2016. In response, Laos appointed a military official as governor of Xaisomboun to crackdown on the region’s armed groups. Laos has no recent history of international terrorism, but visitors are advised to remain aware of global risks and developments.

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CIVIL UNREST

Due to the lack of political rights and freedoms, the government has threatened legal action against and arrest of those who promote pro-democracy sentiments.The government also restricts protests and political gatherings.

EMERGENCY RESPONSE

Laotian police and medical services generally lack the resources to swiftly respond to emergencies.

Medical care in Laos is generally below international standards. Police response to crimes is generally limited, slow, and at times unavailable due to lack of officers. English-speaking tourist police are available in Vientiane.

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HEALTH

While Laos lacks well-developed healthcare infrastructure, it responded swiftly to the COVID-19 pandemic and the country has had a relatively low recorded number of infections. This is in part due to early lockdown measures, but may also reflect a lack of testing. Access to healthcare is uneven, with hospitals and clinics primarily concentrated in cities. Healthcare quality in Laos is not as high as in other countries in the region. It is not uncommon, for those who can afford it, to seek treatment in other countries when dealing with more serious or complex medical issues.

ENVIRONMENT

Landslides and flooding are common. The mountainous and remote terrain in some parts of the country can hinder relief efforts, especially as the few existing roads and infrastructure may be damaged in the event of a natural disaster. In October 2020, tropical storms Linfa and Nangka caused flooding which affected nearly 70,000 people in three provinces. Visitors should also be wary of rural areas where unexploded ordnance poses a threat.

ASIA EMERGING RISKS REPORT LAOS

HOT SPOTS

There is a heightened risk in Xaisomboun province, in large part due to a low-intensity armed conflict between the government and ethnic Hmong. The mountainous province is more difficult for the government to control, as criminal groups are also present in the area. Drug trafficking occurs in the border regions with Myanmar.

EMERGING TRENDS

Following the pro-democracy protest in Thailand in October 2020, there have been calls for a similar movement in Laos. While this movement has primarily been online via social media and has yet to result in a mass protest, this could change if the movement gathers sufficient momentum. Laos may also face economic instability as the COVID-19 pandemic results in reduced remittances from Laotian workers who work in neighboring countries. This, coupled with a rising debt burden due to Chinese infrastructure projects, could lead to growing political instability and rising anti-Chinese sentiment. While this anti-Chinese sentiment may not lead to an increase in direct attacks against Chinese nationals (attacks against Chinese nationals have decreased since 2016-17), it could translate to growing criticism of the government.

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MALAYSIA RISK SCALE

Questions over the stability of Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yasin’s coalition have persisted since he took office in March 2020. Yasin faces infighting within his ruling coalition and a leadership challenge from Anwar Ibrahim, a long-time opposition figure who claims to have the majority suppor t in parliament to oust him.

While the parliamentary passing of the 2021 budget is a success for Yasin, it is not the end of the various challenges to his leadership. Opposition leaders have already stressed that any cooperation will be ad hoc and does not imply endorsement of his government.

CRIME

There is a medium risk of crime. Bag snatching by thieves on motorcycles is a common occurrence in tourist areas of Kuala Lumpur, and criminals target motorists stuck in traffic. Bag snatchings, pick-pocketing, and residential burglaries are the most common crimes against foreigners.

Taxi drivers in central Kuala Lumpur have also perpetrated violent crimes against tourists and residents. Credit card fraud and ATM scams are common in many areas.

TERRORISM

Terrorist attacks remain a possibility in major cities, and foreigners are occasionally targeted [see Hot Spots]. A suspected supporter of Islamic State (IS) arrested in September 2019 reportedly planned to stage attacks on politicians and non-Muslims.

Since 2013, Malaysian authorities have arrested more than 400 IS supporters. Terrorist groups actively recruit young people. In late 2019, two university students were recruited by IS-affiliates on social media.They were indoctrinated, received online training on bomb-making and groomed to carry out an attack, which authorities prevented.

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CIVIL UNREST

Tensions between the government and opposition have led to demonstrations, mostly in Kuala Lumpur, in recent years. Local law prohibits nonMalaysians from participating in public protests in the country. While most protests in Malaysia are peaceful, demonstrations can escalate into violence with little or no warning.

EMERGENCY RESPONSE

Callers to Malaysia’s “999” emergency number are directed to the nearest hospital. Emergency response time may be slow and responses limited.

“Tourist Police” stations are available in some areas.

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HEALTH

Medical capabilities are generally adequate in major cities. Malaysian paramedics do not have training equivalent to western standards.

Malaria, chikungunya and dengue are endemic.

Leptospirosis has also been reported. Frequent and comprehensive testing as well as contact tracing has enabled authorities to swiftly localize COVID-19 hot spots. While widespread community transmission has been avoided, the implementation of localized travel and business restrictions has not managed to significantly slow the outbreak. The government has imposed movement restrictions in a number of locations facing COVID-19 increases, which may change at short notice.

ENVIRONMENT

Parts of Malaysia have been hit by worsening floods in recent years. Nearly 5 million people live in flood-prone areas. While air quality is generally acceptable, it can sometimes be affected by transboundary haze due to the slash and burn practice by farmers and peat fires carried on the wind from Indonesia.

ASIA EMERGING RISKS REPORT MALAYSIA

HOT SPOTS

There is a serious threat of kidnap-for-ransom and violence from both terrorist and criminal groups in eastern Sabah, including by the Philippinesbased Abu Sayyaf Group. In addition to incursions on coastal or resort islands, criminal or terrorist groups may attempt to intercept boats ferrying tourists from the mainland to resort islands.

EMERGING TRENDS

The political situation remains fluid under Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin’s governing coalition. A snap election in the first quarter of 2021 remains likely and further political infighting could trigger rallies and demonstrations.

The repatriation of Malaysians who joined IS in Syria is a long-term concern.

Questions remain about the efficacy of deradicalization programs for individuals who have participated in active combat and who remain deeply committed to extremist views.

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MYANMAR RISK SCALE

The political situation in Myanmar is volatile, and the possibility of civil unrest remains high, including in the capital Yangon. The ruling National League for Democracy led by Aung San Suu Kyi has retained power following its landslide victory in the November 2020 election. However, the main opposition par ty, the military-aligned Union Solidarity and Development Par ty (USDP), raised claims of electoral fraud and has called for a new election to be held with the assistance of the military.

CRIME

Crime rates are considered lower than those in neighboring countries. A number of crimes, such as mugging, petty theft and burglary occasionally occur and target locals as well as foreign visitors. Violent crime and the use of weapons are not common.

TERRORISM

Government troops have been battling the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), a group that recruits from the mostly Buddhist majority. Violent confrontations between ARSA and government forces have occurred near the border with Bangladesh in Rakhine State.

More than 730,000 ethnic Rohingya Muslims fled Rakhine state in 2017 following a military crackdown which the United Nations said was executed with genocidal intent.

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CIVIL UNREST

Demonstrations often occur, mostly in Yangon, and have the potential to turn violent. A number of protests in recent years have led to significant disruptions to traffic and public transportation.

Authorities sometimes respond with force. There is a high risk of civil unrest in Paletwa Township in Chin State, Kachin State, Northern Shan State and Rakhine State. The security situation in those areas could deteriorate with little or no warning.

In March 2014, violent protests targeting the staff and offices of international organizations were held in Sittwe, Rakhine State. Since December 2018, violent confrontations between ethnic armed groups and the military have been reported in parts of northern and central Rakhine State, including in the tourist destination of Mrauk U.

EMERGENCY RESPONSE

Medical facilities are extremely limited, particularly outside Yangon. Immediate cash payment may be required for health services in some parts of the country. English-speaking emergency hotline operators may not be available. The quality of police and medical emergency responses is limited outside Yangon.

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HEALTH

Myanmar is one of Southeast Asia’s hardesthit countries by COVID-19. Restrictions on international travel, domestic movement and business remain in effect, and most of the Yangon is effectively under lockdown. Lockdown regulations differ across areas and may not be applied uniformly. While a few cities such as Yangon, Naypyitaw and Mandalay have more advanced medical care, the vast majority of the country lacks access to basic healthcare.

The country has previously struggled with managing communicable diseases such as tuberculosis, and many healthcare services are run by volunteers and aid groups. Visitors are advised to remain alert for common insect-borne diseases including malaria, dengue, chikungunya and Japanese encephalitis.

Polio is also a risk. Waterborne, foodborne and other infectious diseases such as hepatitis, typhoid and tuberculosis are common.

HOT SPOTS

Some townships in Rakhine State, southern Chin State and northern Shan State are particularly dangerous due to ongoing conflict involving armed groups. There are also unmarked ordnances in conflict-affected areas.

EMERGING TRENDS

The lack of consensus on security matters and trust between the military and ethnic armed groups will continue to hamper the peace process in conflict areas, including in Rakhine State.

While there is no recent evidence of links between ARSA and international terrorist groups, new evidence suggests that they may have perpetrated massacres against civilians in a similar manner to those of other extremist groups.

ENVIRONMENT

Thunderstorms, floods, landslides and cyclones can occur during the monsoon season from May to October. Myanmar is also prone to moderate and large magnitude earthquakes as well as tsunami along its coastline.

ASIA EMERGING RISKS REPORT MYANMAR

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NEPAL RISK SCALE

Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli has led a communist coalition government since 2018, but the country has a history of political turmoil. Political change appeared imminent in early October when an apparent foreign policy shift toward China evoked a response from Kathmandu’s political fraternity. Nepal is seen as a buffer state between India and China, and maintaining an even balance between New Delhi and Beijing is becoming more difficult for Nepal, with rising tensions emerging between the two regional powers.

CRIME

Crime, including petty theft, assault, smuggling, sexual offences, and pickpocketing occur especially in the tourist hotspots of the Kathmandu Valley, Pokhara and the Annapurna region. Travelers could be targeted due to their perceived wealth. Cyber-crime has also been rising in recent years. A large number of foreign tourists and mountaineers visit Nepal, especially for trekking and hiking. Unregistered and fraudulent travel agencies offer trekking packages, often accepting payments and then disappearing. Such scams are more common during the peak season. Credit card fraud is also common, and taxi drivers may also refuse to use the meter, charging exorbitant rates.

TERRORISM

Nepal reported no major acts of terrorism in 2019, and there are no repor ts of transnational terrorist organizations operating there. However, minor bombings occur throughout the country, which authorities blame on the Biplav Group, insurgents who engage in acts of terrorism, although they do not pose a major challenge to national stability.

India shares a border with Nepal, and international terrorists are believed to use it to evade arrest. In August 2013 Indian authorities arrested Yasin Bhatkal, co-founder of the terrorist group Indian Mujahideen, near the international border in Bihar’s Raxaul town. Another extremist group operating in Nepal is the Mongol Mulbasi Rastriya Force.

CIVIL UNREST

Protests and shutdowns can occur in Nepal without notice. Rallies and demonstrations by political parties and special interest groups in places such as Maitighar Mandala in Kathmandu have often turned violent and clashes with security forces have occurred, with violence resulting in deaths.

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EMERGENCY RESPONSE

The absence of an integrated emergency communication and response system may hinder the provision of prompt, coordinated and effective emergency services. Response by the police and fire fighters can be delayed, especially in rural areas and during the monsoon season. There is no centralized public ambulance service, although private providers operate in main cities. Many ambulances carry no formal paramedics and accommodate no medical equipment. Nepal does operate helicopter-based emergency services (HEMS) throughout the entire country.

HOT SPOTS

Kathmandu Valley has emerged as a COVID-19 cluster, though other places also report high infection rates.

International border points are prone to smuggling, especially narcotics and counterfeit currency notes.

EMERGING TRENDS

Nepal has become more important diplomatically since June 2020 when India-China bilateral tensions began to escalate.

HEALTH

Nepal witnessed a sudden surge in COVID-19 cases in October, with an increasing number of frontline workers testing positive. Health experts warn that if transmission continues unabated in the countryside, the country’s healthcare system will be overwhelmed. Most healthcare facilities are located in Kathmandu.

ENVIRONMENT

Nepal is vulnerable to natural disasters such as flash floods, landslides and earthquakes. More than 400 people lost their lives in rain-induced disasters across the country in the monsoon this year.

ASIA EMERGING RISKS REPORT NEPAL

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PAKISTAN RISK SCALE

A convincing election victory brought Imran Khan to the position of prime minister in 2018, but opposition has been increasing. Although Pakistan is politically stable at this point, political unrest is possible in 2021 as a coalition of opposition par ties seeks Khan’s resignation and is targeting the military lobby that wields considerable influence in the country’s foreign policy formulation.

CRIME

Organized crime that can affect foreign travelers in Pakistan includes drug trafficking, money laundering and vehicle theft. The U.S. Depar tment of State has assessed Lahore as a high-threat area, but Islamabad, Karachi and Quetta also regularly repor t incidents of crime.

Statistics do not always reflect the ground reality as a large number of incidents may go unrepor ted. The U.S. advises foreign nationals to avoid Baluchistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa provinces, including the former federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), due to the prevalence of kidnap-for-ransom and extor tion.

Foreign travelers should also beware of cybercrime, including debit/credit card fraud.

TERRORISM

Terrorism poses a significant threat to Pakistan.

Karachi, Peshawar, Sindh and Balochistan have all reported bombing attacks since May 2020 when authorities raised the terror alert level. According to the Global Terrorism Index by the Institute of Economic and Peace, Pakistan was the fifth most vulnerable country to terrorism in the world in 2019. Foreign individuals or places frequented by foreign nationals may be targeted. Active groups include al-Qaeda, Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Jaish-eMohammed (JeM) and al-Badr. The media have reported recruitment activities by Islamic State (IS) near the international border with Afghanistan.

Pakistan has often been blamed for taking ineffective actions against terrorist organizations that are active in other parts of the region, especially India and Afghanistan. The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has maintained Pakistan on its ‘Gray List’ for failing to control terrorist financing.

CIVIL UNREST

Demonstrations over civil issues are common in the Gilgit-Baltistan region. The possibility that parties opposed to the government and military may organize further protests is growing. This could result in congestion, disruption to business and even clashes between rival groups, especially in major cities.

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EMERGENCY RESPONSE

HOT SPOTS

The country’s ability to respond to emergencies, such as natural disasters, is inconsistent. Major urban and commercial zones, including the Islamabad Capital Region (ICT) and Karachi have better-developed emergency response measures but responses can be slow. Remote areas often have rudimentary infrastructure.

Baluchistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa are both prone to crime and vulnerable to terror attacks.

Areas near the Afghanistan border and Line of Control (LoC) with India may report violence at any time.

HEALTH

EMERGING TRENDS

The COVID-19 outbreak may intensify in Pakistan after the government allowed most commercial activities to resume in April-May. The pandemic is expected to restrict Pakistan’s capability to address other major public health concerns and disease burdens, including a polio vaccination campaign for children.

Protests by political opposition parties may gather momentum in the country.

The COVID-19 pandemic in Pakistan may worsen, forcing authorities to reimpose travel restrictions.

ENVIRONMENT

Monsoon floods are common and hilly areas report landslides. Intense heat waves claim lives every year. Pakistan is also vulnerable to earthquakes. A major earthquake in Kashmir killed 87,000 people and affected nearly 3.5 million others in 2005.

ASIA EMERGING RISKS REPORT PAKISTAN

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PAPUA NEW GUINEA RISK SCALE

Papua New Guinea is led by Prime Minister James Marape who has faced serious challenges to his leadership from opposition par ties. Politicians have a high turnover rate due to a tendency to be elected on a personal or ethnic basis rather than by par ty affiliation. Elections are typically marred by allegations of fraud and violence. Former Prime Minister Peter O’Neill resigned in May 2019 after widespread dissatisfaction.

CRIME

Papua New Guinea has one of the highest crime rates in the world. Law and order are poor in much of the country. High unemployment and weak law enforcement have provided optimal conditions for street gangs to flourish.

Settlement areas are par ticularly dangerous; machetes and firearms are often used in assaults and robberies. Carjacking is common in Por t Moresby, especially at night. Criminals may coordinate robberies and carjackings at known chokepoints. Locals may perceive Westerners as wealthy, potentially making them targets of kidnapping and robbery.

TERRORISM

There have been no recent terrorist attacks repor ted in Papua New Guinea. Terrorism remains a peripheral threat due to the country’s location in a region where Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) and the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) are able to infiltrate porous borders.

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CIVIL UNREST

There is a moderate risk of civil unrest in Port Moresby. This generally stems from socioeconomic issues and the inability of the government to maintain control over crowds.

Police have been known to use live rounds against protesters. There have been demonstrations over government entitlements and land disputes.

Protests, although uncommon, can also occur on Manus Island, where there is a detention center for refugees. Clashes between refugees and local residents have occurred in the past.

EMERGENCY RESPONSE

Papua New Guinea has one of the lowest ratios of police-to-population in the world, and officers are often undertrained and lack basic law enforcement tools. On-the-ground police presence is sparse and response times are lengthy. Healthcare facilities are generally poor, including in the capital, Port Moresby. Large towns usually have facilities for routine matters, but ambulance services outside the capital are limited.

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HEALTH

The recorded number of COVID-19 infections is low by global standards, however the true rate of infection is likely to be higher due to low levels of testing. The government has generally been credited for taking the COVID-19 threat seriously and introducing appropriate measures such as curfews and a domestic travel ban. There is a risk of Zika virus transmission. Cases of drug resistant tuberculosis have also reported. Mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue fever are also endemic.

ENVIRONMENT

Papua New Guinea experiences a large number of natural disasters, from earthquakes and volcanoes to tsunami and cyclones. Cyclones generally affect the country from November to April, especially in Milne Bay and the northern provinces. The country is situated in the Pacific Ring of Fire and earthquakes and volcanoes are fairly common. Deforestation and torrential rains have a tendency to cause devastating landslides and flooding during the rainy season.

ASIA EMERGING RISKS REPORT PAPUA NEW GUINEA

HOT SPOTS

Unexploded ordnance and landmines are abundant in Bougainville, East New Britain and many other islands Exercise a high degree of caution in Bougainville, where law enforcement is limited and tourist facilities poorly-developed

EMERGING TRENDS

Political tensions appear set to continue with the Prime Minister under pressure to resign amid growing dissatisfaction within his coalition.

Foreigners continue to be targeted in robberies, assaults, carjacking and kidnappings.

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PHILIPPINES RISK SCALE

President Rodrigo Duter te enjoys a remarkable level of public suppor t. Mid-term elections in 2019 saw the ruling coalition take the Senate, and the opposition is now fractured. Two political controversies surround Duter te. (1) The President’s drug war has resulted in nearly 6,000 deaths and allegations of extrajudicial killings. As of October 2020, this is subject to investigation by the International Criminal Cour t, although surveys show domestic suppor t. (2) Duterte has pursued what is commonly described as a “pro-China” position on the South China Sea.The opposition characterizes this policy as treasonous, and public opposition to China’s territorial claims periodically produces protests. Moreover, there is a risk of geopolitical conflict caused by Manila’s precarious policy of playing the United States and China off of one another.

CRIME

Overall, the Philippines, including Manila, has a medium risk of crime. Violent crime, including robbery and rape are not uncommon. According to the U.S. Overseas Security Advisory Council, robbery victims have sometimes been targeted by taxi drivers or criminals operating stolen cabs.

Physical risks in the southern Philippines are significantly more serious due to insurgency. Other petty crime, including theft and pickpocketing is also common. Crime on the whole has declined recently.

TERRORISM

Numerous Islamist terrorist groups operate in the southern Philippines, including the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, and the Abu Sayyaf Group, which is associated with Islamic State. These groups are primarily active in Mindanao, the Sulu Archipelago and southern Palawan. Martial law was implemented in Mindanao from 2017 to 2019 to combat insurgencies there, after extended fighting in Marawi left 1,000 dead and more than 1 million displaced.

Militants in the region have also been responsible for kidnapping foreigners in recent years, including from vessels in the Sulu and Celebes Seas.

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CIVIL UNREST

Civil unrest is common. Incidents in the aforementioned areas of the south present a greater threat. Small-scale protests against Duterte’s controversial policies are frequent in Manila. There are also periodic (generally peaceful) protests against the United States and China, often outside their embassies in relation to geopolitical issues, including the South China Sea.

EMERGENCY RESPONSE

The quality of healthcare and emergency services varies by location, with the capital offering affordable access to high-quality care, although not necessarily reaching the standards of western hospitals. Outside Manila, the quality of service may decline significantly. Emergency services show similar geographic disparities, and the healthcare industry as a whole suffers from a lack of manpower due to emigration. The Philippines is an English-speaking country.

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HEALTH

There is a significant risk of various food/waterborne and mosquito-borne illnesses. Rural areas may not have access to clean water. The 2019 measles outbreak also particularly impacted Manila and overwhelmed hospitals.The Philippines has struggled to contain COVID-19, although daily new infections declined from August through late November. The Philippines has relied heavily on lockdowns, with Manila enduring the longest lockdown in the world. Re-escalation of transmission would likely be met with similar measures, although concerns for economic activity may temper this somewhat.

ENVIRONMENT

The Philippines experiences frequent typhoons and associated flooding and landslides that can be devastating. It is also a seismically active country, with periodic earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.

ASIA EMERGING RISKS REPORT PHILIPPINES

HOT SPOTS

There is a heightened risk in the southern Philippines due to the presence of active terrorist groups and an associated kidnapping threat. Large cities, including Manila and Quezon City are mostly safe, but also have high-risk areas.

EMERGING TRENDS

There are indications of a peace accord in Mindanao, however progress has been delayed by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The police reported more than a 20% decrease in various crimes categories (including homicide, robbery and rape) in 2019 compared to the previous year.

Geopolitical tension in the South China Sea is intensifying. The Duterte administration has pursued risky strategies that play on tension between Beijing and Washington.

In particular, the need for the Philippines to secure more fossil fuel resources has encouraged politically sensitive and uncertain cooperation with China in disputed territories.

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SINGAPORE RISK SCALE

Singapore has been politically stable throughout its history with no recent history of political violence.

The ruling People’s Action Par ty (PAP) has been in power since the nation gained independence. This year, Singapore held a general election which saw the PAP retain its supermajority in parliament. However, the Workers’ Par ty (WP) won 10 seats, making it the largest opposition group in parliament since 1966. Some exper ts claim that the election marked a shift in Singaporean politics toward a more open and diverse political scene.

CRIME

CIVIL UNREST

Singapore has one of the lowest violent crime rates in the world, including the second-lowest murder rate in the world. This is due in par t to strict measures, widespread surveillance and a relatively prosperous economy. However, common sense precautions should still be exercised, especially in relation to non-violent crimes such as scams or theft of unattended proper ty.

Protests and riots are rare in Singapore due to strict laws governing the authorization of rallies and demonstrations. One notably violent riot occurred on the evening of Dec. 8, 2013 in Little India shortly after a migrant laborer was killed in a traffic accident. Authorities said that approximately 300 migrant laborers were involved and 62 people were injured. The rioters set fire to cars and clashed with police.

TERRORISM

EMERGENCY RESPONSE

There is a low risk of terrorism in Singapore, and no history of attacks. The Singaporean authorities have been effective and proactive in dealing with potential threats. Attempts by terrorist groups in Indonesia to attack Singapore have been reported. Six people were convicted of terrorism charges in 2016, for planning to fire a rocket at the Marina Bay Sands Resort from Batam in Indonesia’s Riau Islands. This year, a Singaporean court convicted three Indonesian nationals of financing terrorism by sending money to Islamic State (IS) in the Middle East.

CORPORATE RISK SERVICES

Singapore has a robust emergency service system with effective police and medical staff. Operators and services are generally prompt.

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HEALTH

Singapore has an effective healthcare system.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, Singapore faced significant infection rates within its migrant labor population who predominantly live in dormitories.

However, it has managed to keep community transmission among citizens and long-term residents to relatively low levels with effective contact tracing and testing measures.

ENVIRONMENT

Singapore does not tend to experience frequent natural disasters. It is not located in a seismically active area, nor is there a particular danger of typhoons and severe tropical storms. Singapore’s infrastructure is also generally effective at preventing severe flooding. However, air quality is low at times due to haze from wildfires in Sumatra.

ASIA EMERGING RISKS REPORT SINGAPORE

HOT SPOTS

Singapore is generally a safe environment. There are some areas where petty crime incidents may be more likely to occur, including in nightlife and bar areas such as Geylang and Clarke Quay.

EMERGING TRENDS

While Singapore responded quickly to the COVID-19 outbreak, the pandemic still heavily affected the Singaporean economy. It remains to be seen how the changing socio-economic impacts of the pandemic and the recent election outcome will affect the nation going forward.

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SOUTH KOREA RISK SCALE

South Korea is a strong democracy with robust institutions. President Moon Jae-in’s Democratic Party won a decisive victory in parliamentary elections in April. However, geopolitics on the Korean Peninsula continues to be a challenge.The U.S. engagement with North Korea failed, and it is unclear how the Biden administration will address this. Any rapprochement between Seoul and Pyongyang is on hold. In June, North Korea unexpectedly demolished the Inter-Korean Liaison Office, and in September a South Korean man was killed by soldiers in North Korean waters. While Kim Jong-un reportedly apologized over the latter incident, suggesting a desire to limit escalation, both developments severely limit Moon’s ability to engage. Barring a major crisis, however, the issue is unlikely to impact day-to-day life or travel. More likely to affect business is tension with Japan.

Relations between the neighbors worsened in 2018 with the re-emergence of unresolved historical issues stemming from WWII, and at one point threatened an intelligence-sharing agreement, as well as cross-border investments. The situation stabilized somewhat in 2020, but the future remains uncertain.

CRIME

The crime rate in South Korea is among the lowest in the world. Violent crime is rare.

Travelers should, however, remain aler t for petty crime and scams. A par ticular problem in South Korea is the prevalence of voyeurism, with frequent discoveries of hidden cameras in places such as hotels, public toilets and pools — some of which have been linked to illegal livestreaming services.

TERRORISM

There is no recent history of terrorism, and no significant transnational terrorist presence known in South Korea. However, visitors should remain aware of global risks and geopolitical developments.

CORPORATE RISK SERVICES

CIVIL UNREST

Protests occur frequently. Corruption, abuse of power, scandals involving officials or celebrities and disputes with foreign countries (particularly North Korea and Japan) are recurring themes.The most recent large-scale demonstrations occurred in 2016-2017, calling for former President Park Geun-hye to step down. Protesters gathered in the hundreds of thousands every weekend for several months. Clashes with police resulted in dozens of injuries and three deaths.

EMERGENCY RESPONSE

South Korea’s healthcare and emergency response systems are highly modernized. Large hospitals usually operate international healthcare centers designed specifically for foreign visitors. Urban emergency services are foreigner-friendly, with English-speaking police officers and doctors available 24/7. Clinics in rural areas, however, can be less accommodating.

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HEALTH

As of late November, South Korea is experiencing a third wave of COVID-19 infections. The country quickly increased social-distancing requirements and closed entertainment venues, and the government is considering further measures under a tiered system. Outbreaks and response cycles will likely continue until an effective vaccine is available. Restrictions on international travel remain in place, although these are slowly being eased on a country-by-country basis.

ENVIRONMENT

The local typhoon season runs from June to November. Heavy rains sometimes trigger floods and landslides.

ASIA EMERGING RISKS REPORT SOUTH KOREA

HOT SPOTS

Gwanghwamun Square is a common site for rallies.

Demonstrations also occur occasionally near the foreign missions of the United States, Japan and China. Protests may also be held outside of courts, especially during high-profile cases.

As mentioned, voyeurism is a long-standing social issue in South Korea. Travelers should pay extra attention in public toilets and red-light districts, such as Itaewon and Yongdeungpo.

EMERGING TRENDS

Moon Jae-in won the presidency by promising to fight corruption, reduce the power of “Chaebol” monopolies, and improve relations with North Korea. Three years into his single five-year term, Moon is struggling to meet expectations. In early October, tens of thousands of people protested against Moon and his Justice Minister Cho Kuk, who faces multiple charges, including bribery and document fraud. If public dissatisfaction escalates, it could hinder Moon’s ability to govern.

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SRI LANKA RISK SCALE

A constitutional crisis arose in Sri Lanka in 2018, but the island nation is now politically stable following the election of Mahinda Rajapaksa as prime minister, and his brother, Gotabaya, as president. An ongoing challenge remains for Sri Lanka to maintain an equal distance from two regional powers — India and China — as both have large stakes in the country’s infrastructure.

CRIME

Petty criminals, such as pickpockets, often target foreign nationals, particularly in crowded public places. House break-ins are also often reported.

Thefts from hotel and guest house rooms is common. The latest government data indicate an upward trend in serious crime. Armed robbers targeted tourists in southern Sri Lanka in 2019.

Street crime may be reported at or near large hotels, commercial areas and popular tourist destinations. The U.S. Embassy has warned female travelers to beware of sexual harassment, especially by local taxi drivers. Foreigners may also fall victim to debit/credit card fraud or ATM skimming. Property-related crime has increased in areas with high tourist volume.

TERRORISM

CIVIL UNREST

Civil unrest is not a high risk in Sri Lanka, but protests, demonstrations or shutdowns over issues such as ethnic rights can affect normal life and transportation. Issues concerning the Tamil community and alleged human rights violations during the civil war may trigger unrest in the north and north-east, including Jaffna, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi and Batticaloa.

EMERGENCY RESPONSE

The police in Sri Lanka are known to have performed well in solving crimes perpetrated against foreign nationals. Ambulance and fire response services may not always be prompt outside the city, especially in semi-urban and rural areas.

The April 2019 Easter bombings underlined the threat of terrorism in the country and the growing influence of Islamic State (IS). The government in Colombo enhanced its bilateral collaboration against terrorism with New Delhi, but Sri Lanka needs to strengthen its intelligence-gathering network. The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), which was defeated in 2009 following a civil war fought for more than two decades, continues to propagate its extremist ideology through international networks and remains a small but persistent threat.

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HEALTH

Swift actions by the authorities to contain COVID-19 earned the country praise, though it had to re-impose restrictions after infection clusters were found in October and the country remains closed to international flights.

The country has a free and universal primary healthcare system, but the infrastructure has been under pressure due to the pandemic.

Growing non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and elderly care needs may affect prompt healthcare service delivery.

ENVIRONMENT

HOT SPOTS

Tension over issues related to community rights for ethnic Tamils may increase in the northeastern region, including Jaffna.

EMERGING TRENDS

President Gotabaya’s plan to secure sweeping executive power is likely to be challenged in court by multiple petitioners. This may trigger sociopolitical tensions. Widespread protests are also possible in some areas, especially where ethnic Tamils are a majority.

Sri Lanka is vulnerable to natural disasters, particularly floods and landslides during the monsoon season. Tsunami in the event of a major earthquake remain a persistent threat.

ASIA EMERGING RISKS REPORT SRI LANKA

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THAILAND RISK SCALE

Since an election in 2019 (the first since a military coup in 2014), Thailand has been impacted by a young prodemocracy movement that seeks wide-ranging political change and reform in this Southeast Asian kingdom.

Large anti-government protests have occurred almost daily in Bangkok and other areas of Thailand since midOctober. There is a risk of clashes between pro-democracy groups, royalists, other pro-establishment forces and the police at these protests. Those attending can also face arrest or other legal consequences. Thailand also faces an armed insurgency (see below.)

CRIME

Petty crime, such as pickpocketing and bagsnatching, is common in Thailand and poses a risk to travelers, particularly in urban centers. Violent crimes, including armed robbery and other firearmrelated crime rarely targets foreign nationals, but sexual assault and unprovoked attacks have been reported in tourist destinations, along with drinkspiking and credit card fraud. Numerous organized crime groups are concentrated in major cities and involved in drug trafficking, human trafficking, prostitution and document fraud.

TERRORISM

Thailand faces an armed separatist insurgency in its southernmost provinces. Ethnic Malay-Muslim insurgents carry out indiscriminate attacks in the south, generally targeting the police and security forces, while some sporadic minor bombings have been perpetrated in Bangkok. In August 2019, a series of explosions occurred in Bangkok near transit stations and outside several government buildings, but the campaign is predominantly focused on the southern provinces of Pattani, Songkhla, Yala and Narathiwat. Authorities have instituted curfews and military patrols, but a heightened military presence has only exacerbated the insurgency. Peace talks facilitated by Malaysia have yet to result in a settlement.

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CIVIL UNREST

Protests have been ongoing in Bangkok and across Thailand by pro-democracy groups challenging the political establishment and calling for broad constitutional reforms. In previous years, large political protests have resulted in violence and multiple deaths. Protests, rallies and demonstrations should be avoided.

EMERGENCY RESPONSE

Police effectiveness is hampered by a lack of funding and a need for training. Medical treatment is good in urban areas. In Bangkok, Chiang Mai and Pattaya, very good facilities exist for routine, longterm and emergency health care. Basic medical care is available in rural areas, but English-speaking providers may not always be available.

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HEALTH

The COVID-19 outbreak has peaked in Thailand for the present, and the number of reported daily new infections and active cases remains low. Dengue fever outbreaks have increased since 2013, and Zika virus is also a risk. Rabies is a concern in both domestic and wild animals.

Industrial emissions, crop burning and motor vehicle fumes have caused air pollution levels to spike in recent years, increasing long-term health risks for residents and frequent visitors.

ENVIRONMENT

Tropical storms are a periodic issue in Thailand with the monsoon season taking place from July to October. Flooding is common during this period both in rural and urban areas, and can have a severe impact. Unseasonal flooding may also occur. Lakes, caves, and waterfalls are particularly prone to dangerous flash floods. Northern Thailand is subject to earthquakes and tremors with coastal areas vulnerable to tsunami.

ASIA EMERGING RISKS REPORT THAILAND

HOT SPOTS

The security situation in the country’s Deep South region remains volatile. Violent incidents, such as bombings, shootings, arson and skirmishes occur with regularity and are likely to continue.

EMERGING TRENDS

Political risk in Thailand is increasing, driven by pro-democracy demonstrations, with reference to martial law and even a coup frequently made in the media.

Ongoing mass protests in Bangkok and other cities elevate the risk of COVID-19 transmission.

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VIETNAM RISK SCALE

Vietnam is a one-party state ruled by the Communist Party of Vietnam. Domestically, Vietnam is generally stable with the ruling par ty maintaining firm control. Political dissent and freedom of speech are strictly limited. Authorities have generally intensified crackdowns on political dissent prior to the par ty Congress held every five years when the country’s leaders are chosen by the par ty. The next Congress is scheduled to be held in early 2021. Political and economic tensions with China have worsened in recent years over the South China Sea. China’s ‘nine dash line’ territorial claim overlaps with Vietnamese sovereign waters in the disputed waterway.

CRIME

There is a considerable risk of petty crime in certain parts of large urban centers, such as Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi. Visitors should be particularly vigilant for street theft and pickpocketing. Violent armed robberies are not common, but if they occur the perpetrators may be armed with bladed or sharp weapons, such as knives or razors. Firearm-related crime is rare in Vietnam. It is not uncommon for thieves and robbers to be riding motorcycles to allow for quick getaways or snatching valuables from pedestrians.

TERRORISM

The risk of terrorism in Vietnam is low.The country does not have a recent history of terror attacks.

However, visitors should remain aware of global risks and geopolitical developments.

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CIVIL UNREST

The most substantial civil unrest threats in recent years have come in the form of labor strikes and protests. In 2014, a dispute involving a Chinese oil rig in Vietnamese sovereign waters triggered anti-Chinese sentiment and riots which targeted Chinese-owned businesses and factories.

Reports of fatalities varied from three to 21, and approximately 100 people were injured.

EMERGENCY RESPONSE

Emergency services in Vietnam can be accessed by dialing 113, however few operators speak English. Responses may not be prompt due to a lack of resources, par ticularly in rural areas. Private clinics and medical services in cities are usually of higher quality than government healthcare but they are considerably more expensive. Police in Vietnam will generally be responsive to serious crime, including those that involve violence. They will be less effective at solving cases of petty crime due to their frequent occurrence and limited resources.

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HEALTH

Vietnam has responded to the COVID-19 pandemic effectively in comparison to other countries in the region. However, a second wave of infections did occur which forced the reimplementation of quarantine restrictions in the coastal town of Da Nang. Health authorities continue to be vigilant for impor ted cases, par ticularly among illegal visitors. Other health risks in Vietnam include the mosquito-borne Dengue fever. In 2019 there were more than 320,000 cases of Dengue fever in Vietnam with 54 deaths.

ENVIRONMENT

Strong winds, flooding and landslides caused by monsoon rains and typhoons are the main environmental risks in Vietnam. Four major storms struck Vietnam from the South China Sea in October 2020, triggering landslides and flooding that caused more than 150 deaths. The typhoon season in Vietnam varies in different regions. In the southwest it lasts from April to September, on the Central Coastline it usually lasts from August to November, and in the north it typically occurs from October to March.

ASIA EMERGING RISKS REPORT VIETNAM

HOT SPOTS

Organized crime and narcotics syndicates pose an elevated risk in some areas. For example, Tay Ninh province on the border with Cambodia is frequently used as a smuggling route for drug traffickers. Organized crime elements may also be present in some nightclubs in Ho Chi Minh City.

EMERGING TRENDS

Vietnam is expected to face further environmental risks from the upcoming monsoon season, with the potential for further storms to strike the country from the South China Sea. Geopolitical tensions with China are also increasing with regard to the South China Sea, over which China is becoming increasingly assertive with its claims.

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OUTLOOK This repor t outlines myriad security concerns and dynamic changes across Asia.

Countries in the region are responding to tremendous change as China rises as an economic superpower. Each country and bloc must come to terms with this as China seeks to work with and benefit from its Southeast Asian neighbors but aims to play a leading role in trade, setting the rules and often using economic power to secure its objectives. The U.S. election and the impact of U.S. foreign and trade policy in Asia are being closely monitored. What will a Biden presidency mean for Asia and broader political risk in the region? Will there be a "turning to Asia" following four years of Trump's "America First" policy?

In terms of broader foreign policy, the countries of Asia must consider their positions with regard to developments such as the Quad, a new "alternative" power base and the Japan-Australia defense treaty.

Some Asian countries continue to struggle with internal conflicts: Indonesia's Papua, Thailand's Deep South and Myanmar's Rakhine state to name only three.

In the Philippines correspondingly there are indications of a peace accord in Mindanao, but what are the prospects for peace for the other conflicts in 202122? Terrorism continues to plague Indonesia even though there has not been a major attack for many years. We continue to monitor how this risk develops.

Despite the positivity and magnitude of Asia, with all of its tremendous diversity and extremes, its teeming populations and challenging environments, the region’s production, supply chains, populations and economies have been severely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The associated risks will have an impact on safe travel to the region in 2021. One of the greatest threats to the economies of the Asia region is climate change and global warming.

Asia continues to face long-term effects with damage to the region's fragile environments and deep-seated social change as societies respond to new trends and developments in work and technology. A number of significant stressors, both old and new, play on Asia and threaten the stability of its peoples, its economies and safe travel in the region.

CORPORATE RISK SERVICES

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G4S CORPORATE RISK SERVICES G4S is one of the world’s largest security companies, employing nearly 533,000 employees and supporting operations in around 80 countries. With one of the most tenured senior management teams, subject matter experts who are highly decorated members of the industry, and global visibility, we are committed to providing integrated security strategies with a holistic, all-hazards perspective.

Our Corporate Risk Services team are specialists in providing risk consulting, corporate investigations and executive protection. We provide clients access to unparalleled industry knowledge, expert consulting and integrated technologies.

We’re a company that stands apart from the crowd; one that transforms challenges into opportunities and savings.

HILL & ASSOCIATES Hill & Associates, a G4S company, is the largest risk management firm in Asia.

Headquar tered in Hong Kong, we have more than 120 international Asiabased staff with backgrounds in security, law, accounting, banking, military, intelligence and cyber security. Deep local knowledge allows us to react swiftly and effectively across the region, providing security risk management, fraud prevention, integrity risk management, corporate intelligence and risk intelligence. We can provide regular repor ting, bespoke and tailored assessments, incident aler ts and training.

Risk Assessments

Advisories

Traning Courses

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SECURITY RISK OPERATIONS CENTER (SROC) KEY CAPABILITIES INTELLIGENCE AS A SERVICE

Security Intelligence provides actionable and comprehensive insights that reduce risk and operational effort for any size organization. Understanding what is happening across resources is critical when identifying threats. G4S employs global subject matter experts on geopolitical risk who provide real-time analysis of events through impact analysis, media monitoring and social/web/dark web analysis.This AI-augmented intelgathering enables you to immediately know when incidents occur.

SITUATIONAL AWARENESS MONITORING & ALERTING

When organizations have thousands of people and assets, there is limited time to assess and manage risk. G4S Security Risk Operations Center (SROC) analysts and operators leverage powerful situational awareness technology that can save hours of sorting through data and reaching stakeholders during a crisis. SROC analysts and operators leverage a powerful AI algorithm to review relevant news, social media, government information and other sources.

SOCIAL MEDIA/DEEP WEB MONITORING

G4S analysts monitor across social media platforms, as well as the open and deep web. This allows our analysts to identify real-time and emerging threats to clients’ security, ranging from executive protection and asset management to reputational risk.

GLOBAL & EXECUTIVE PROTECTION TRAVEL RISK MANAGEMENT

G4S’ unrivaled geographic footprint helps you manage employees’ safety from departure to return. SROC analysts develop pre-travel advisory intelligence reports and on-demand, pre-travel security briefings. The SROC uses geolocation software to track your team members and provide in-country travel intelligence alerts (via text and mobile) to ensure employees remain safe and connected.

EXECUTIVE PROTECTION & TRANSPORT

From natural disasters and civil unrest to workplace violence, the SROC delivers immediate assistance during crises across the globe. Intelligence analysts keep executives safe by providing critical resources when disaster strikes — even in high-risk areas. SROC operators work 24/7 on requests to deploy G4S assets, including armored vehicles and air transport to secure and extract executives and business personnel.

MONITORING & GSOC REMOTE VIDEO MONITORING

The G4S suite of monitoring solutions includes event monitoring, video verification, intrusion & life-safety, virtual patrol & chaperone, rapid video deployment and system diagnostic & retrieval. Using advanced technology, our team of highly trained and experienced operators act in real-time to protect client assets, helping to reduce costs, monitor remote areas and optimize security budgets through technology.

GLOBAL SECURITY OPERATIONS CENTER (GSOC) AS A SERVICE

This solution provides outsourced or augmented solutions that integrate travel risk management, situational awareness monitoring & alerting, intelligence as a service, global crisis management response, security data analytics and remote video camera & alarm monitoring. Fully or partially outsourcing a GSOC to G4S will help you save money, decrease capital expenditure and expand resources. If you choose to build your own Security Operations Center (SOC), G4S provides expert assistance in designing and staffing a modern operations center to deliver a Center of Excellence for security

CORPORATE RISK SERVICES

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SROC INTELLIGENCE REPORTING

Situation Alerts

Intelligence Assessments

Social Media & Deep Web Monitoring

White Papers

Investigations

Disaster Advisory Reports

ASIA EMERGING RISKS REPORT

Travel Risk Assessments

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G4S ASIA PRESENCE G4S Global Statistics 2019 Revenue: £7.7bn Employees: 558,000+ Global Presence: 90+ Countries 500,000+ monitoring connections G4S in Asia 2019 Asia Revenue: £940m 2019 Organic Growth: +4.4% G4S Locations Across Asia

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CONTACTS G4S Corporate Risk Services www.g4s.us 1395 University Boulevard Jupiter, FL 33458

Hill & Associates www.hill-assoc.com Units 101B & 104, 1/F, Tower 2, The Harbourfront 22 Tak Fung Street Hung Hom, Kowloon Hong Kong

Robert L. Dodge President, G4S Corporate Risk Services robert.dodge@usa.g4s.com

Sanjay Verma Regional CEO, Asia Pacific, G4S

Jason L. David Ian Betts Sr. Director, Intelligence & Security Risk Director, Mainland Southeast Asia Operations Center, G4S Corporate Risk ian.betts@hill-assoc.com Services jason.david@usa.g4s.com Research & Analysis Johanna Loock Senior Intelligence Analyst johanna.loock@usa.g4s.com Bryce Green Risk Management Advisor bryce.green@hill-assoc.com Renindya Hiera Senior Analyst, Indonesia & Southeast Asia renindya.hiera@hill-assoc.com Ihsan Pradana Analyst, Indonesia & Southeast Asia ihsan.pradana@hill-assoc.com Thomas Nunlist Senior Analyst, Greater China & North Asia thomas.nunlist@hill-assoc.cn Diganta Biswas Senior Analyst, South Asia diganta.biswas@hill-assoc.com ASIA EMERGING RISKS REPORT

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C O R P O R AT E RISK SERVICES

ASIA EMERGING RISKS REPORT 2020

G4S Corporate Risk Services www.g4s.us 1395 University Boulevard Jupiter, FL 33458