INTELLIGENCE UPDATE COVID-19: United States and Latin America August 18, 2020
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U.S. Situation in Numbers
5,455,136+ Total Confirmed Cases
16% Decrease in Average Cases per Day from Two Weeks Earlier
UNITED STATES: CURRENT SITUATION As of August 18, G4S Corporate Risk Services assesses that the geographic risk environment for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission in the United States is HIGH. The outbreak of the disease, caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has continued to spread globally from person-to-person since having been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) on March 11. According to data from state and local health agencies and hospitals, there have been at least 5,455,136 confirmed cases of COVID-19 infection and 170,451 associated deaths throughout the United States. The respiratory illness, at this stage of its proliferation, has been recorded in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and each territory, except for American Samoa. The latest reports from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) indicate that the national overall percentage of individuals testing positive for COVID-19 is 9%, with 6,281,615 positive results out of 70,155,956 total tests. In addition, the overall cumulative COVID-19 hospitalization rate is 144.1 per 100,000 people, with the highest rates in persons aged 65 years and older (394.2 per 100,000) and 50-64 years (217.0 per 100,000). Highlights: ▪
Five states--California, Florida, Texas, New York, and Georgia--account for about 45% of all COVID-19 cases in the United States. New York, New Jersey (which has the highest number of deaths per 100,000 population, with at least 15,916), California, Texas, and Florida account for around 47% of all deaths.
▪
California (the most populous state) remains the epicenter of the outbreak in the U.S., as it approaches 635,000 confirmed cases of infection and 11,400 deaths. Los Angeles County has reported at least 223,131 cases, 35% of the state’s total number.
▪
Louisiana, with 138,608 confirmed cases and 4,526 deaths, and Mississippi, with 72,412 confirmed cases and 2,095 deaths, also continue to be among the states most affected by the disease.
▪
Newly reported cases in the last two weeks have increased in the following states/territories (sorted by cases per capita): U.S. Virgin Islands, North Dakota, Kansas, Puerto Rico, Hawaii, Illinois, Delaware, Guam, South Dakota, and Vermont.
▪
Newly reported deaths have increased in the following states/territories: Georgia, Tennessee, North Dakota, Puerto Rico, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Washington, Illinois, West Virginia, Kentucky, and Minnesota.
▪
Texas reported 54,118 new cases in the last seven days (187 per 100,000 population), while Georgia reported 19,565 new cases (184 per 100,000). Mississippi recorded 183 deaths in the last seven days (6 per 100,000), whereas Florida reported 1,262 new deaths (6 per 100,000).
3.1% Case-Fatality Ratio
51.24 Deaths per 100,000 Population
2 | Intelligence Update
G4S Corporate Risk Services
VISUALIZATION OF U.S. TRENDS: MAPS AND MODELS Figure: Average Daily COVID-19 Cases Per 100,000 People in Last 7 Days (August 18)
Source: The New York Times
Figure: Daily Confirmed New Cases in U.S. Based on 5-Day Moving Average (August 18)
Source: Johns Hopkins University
3 | Intelligence Update
G4S Corporate Risk Services
Figure: Pneumonia, Influenza, and COVID-19 Mortality Data (August 13)
Figure: Laboratory Confirmed COVID-19 Associated Hospitalizations (August 8)
Source: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention / National Center for Health Statistics
4 | Intelligence Update
G4S Corporate Risk Services
Figure: Forecasts of New and Total National COVID-19 Deaths (August 10)
Source: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
5 | Intelligence Update
G4S Corporate Risk Services
COVID-19 U.S. Cases Total Cases: 5,455,136 Total Deaths: 170,451 As of 5 a.m. ET, Tuesday, August 18
State/Territory Texas Georgia Florida
Cases in Last 7 Days Per 100,000 187
Deaths in Last 7 Days Per 100,000
All Time Cases Per 100,000
All Time Deaths Per 100,000
Total Cases
5
1,963 36 569,058 Recovered: 7,139,985 184 5 2,089 44 221,841 Total Countries, Areas and Territories with Confirmed Infections: 188 182 6 2,682 44 576,086
Total Deaths 10,559 4,624 9,538
Virgin Islands
173
—
715
8
760
9
Nevada
162
4
2,014
35
62,022
1,077
Mississippi
160
1
2,433
25
72,412
2,095
Idaho
159
2
1,573
15
28,113
275
Tennessee
158
2
1,929
20
131,742
1,370
California
154
2
1,607
29
634,991
11,334
Missouri
146
1
1,138
24
69,836
1,468
Louisiana
140
5
2,982
97
138,608
4,526
North Dakota
123
2
1,135
17
8,651
130
Alabama
122
3
2,223
39
109,004
1,925
Oklahoma
120
2
1,231
17
48,711
665
Kansas
118
<1
1,220
14
35,544
410
Iowa
116
2
1,674
31
52,829
987
Puerto Rico
116
2
790
10
26,760
335
South Carolina
113
5
2,077
44
106,953
2,288
Hawaii
111
<1
367
3
5,192
39
Kentucky
109
1
931
19
41,610
840
Arkansas
101
2
1,759
20
53,077
603
Illinois
100
1
1,657
63
209,942
7,990
Nebraska
97
<1
1,580
19
30,563
363
Delaware
93
<1
1,698
61
16,536
593
Indiana
92
1
1,232
47
82,909
3,135
Wisconsin
92
<1
1,216
18
70,796
1,050
Arizona
88
5
2,666
62
194,027
4,509
North Carolina
85
2
1,392
23
145,942
2,384
Guam
83
—
906
4
1,527
6
South Dakota
79
<1
1,171
17
10,360
153
Virginia
78
<1
1,259
28
107,421
2,385
Alaska
78
<1
698
4
5,108
26
6 | Intelligence Update
G4S Corporate Risk Services
Utah
76
<1
1,464
11
46,936
366
Minnesota
75
1
1,166
31
65,762
1,758
Maryland
74
<1
1,675
60
101,276
3,641
Montana
73
<1
544
8
5,810
82
District of Columbia
66
<1
1,881
85
13,273
597
Ohio
63
1
933
33
109,062
3,832
Rhode Island
60
<1
1,942
97
20,572
1,023
Washington
56
1
926
25
70,510
1,870
Michigan
54
<1
1,030
66
102,872
6,592
New Mexico
50
1
1,121
34
23,500
718
Wyoming
50
<1
576
6
3,331
33
West Virginia
49
1
482
9
8,632
160
Oregon
47
<1
556
9
23,461
391
Pennsylvania
42
1
1,013
59
129,686
7,535
Colorado
40
<1
927
33
53,391
1,903
Massachusetts
37
1
1,797
128
123,841
8,842
New Jersey
31
<1
2,135
179
189,606
15,916
New York
24
<1
2,214
167
430,636
32,435
Connecticut
20
<1
1,438
125
51,267
4,456
New Hampshire
12
<1
515
31
7,004
423
Maine
11
<1
312
9
4,197
127
Vermont
10
—
245
9
1,527
58
Northern Mariana Islands American Samoa
8
—
103
4
53
2
—
—
—
—
0
0
7 | Intelligence Update
G4S Corporate Risk Services
LATAM Situation in Numbers
6,194,618+ Total Confirmed Cases
1.1x
LATIN AMERICA: CURRENT SITUATION As of August 18, G4S Corporate Risk Services assesses that the geographic risk environment for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission in Latin America is HIGH. According to data obtained from local governments, Johns Hopkins University, and the World Health Organization (WHO), there have been at least 6,194,618 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 242,957 associated deaths in Latin America, making it the region with the highest number of cases--more than a quarter--globally. As indicated by the WHO’s Weekly Epidemiological Update published on August 17, the disease has spread to more than 50 countries, territories, and areas throughout Latin America. On August 6, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released COVID-19 Travel Recommendations that assess most destinations in the region as Warning - Level 3: Avoid Nonessential Travel. Additionally, on August 6, the U.S. Department of State issued updated country-specific Travel Advisories that assess many parts of the region as Level 4: Do Not Travel. Highlights: ▪
The WHO reported as of August 16 a total of 6,040,643 confirmed cases of COVID-19 infection in Latin America compared to 5,519,857 cases a week ago, a 9% increase.
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Brazil (population est. 212 million) remains the epicenter of the outbreak in the region, with 3,359,570 confirmed cases of infection and 108,536 deaths. The country accounts for more than both 50% of total cases and 40% of total deaths in the region. São Paulo state has reported at least 702,665 cases, over 20% of Brazil’s total number. However, Roraima, Amapá, Distrito Federal, Sergipe, and Amazonas have been the hotspots (based on cases per 100,000 population).
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Peru (population est. 32 million), with at least 535,946 confirmed cases and 26,281 deaths, and Chile (population est. 18 million), with 387,502 confirmed cases and 10,513 deaths, also continue to be hit hard by the disease.
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Newly reported cases in the last two weeks have increased in the following countries/territories/areas (sorted by cases per capita): Peru, Argentina, Ecuador, Venezuela, Costa Rica, Paraguay, Haiti, Cuba, Suriname, The Bahamas, Jamaica, Aruba, Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago, Belize, Sint Maarten, Turks and Caicos Islands, and Bermuda.
82.35
▪
Five countries (Brazil, Mexico, Peru, Colombia, and Chile) have each reported more than 10,000 deaths.
Deaths in Peru per 100,000 Population
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Aruba reported 491 new cases in the last seven days (464 per 100,000 population), while Sint Maarten reported 137 new cases (337 per 100,000). Peru recorded 5,209 deaths in the last seven days (16 per 100,000), whereas Colombia reported 2,529 new deaths (5 per 100,000).
Increase in Reported Infections from Previous Week
11.0% Case-Fatality Ratio in Mexico
8 | Intelligence Update
G4S Corporate Risk Services
VISUALIZATION OF LATAM TRENDS: MAPS AND MODELS Figure: Average Daily COVID-19 Cases Per 100,000 People in Last 7 Days (August 18)
Source: The New York Times
Figure: Daily Confirmed New Cases in Most Affected LATAM Countries (August 18)
Source: Johns Hopkins University
9 | Intelligence Update
G4S Corporate Risk Services
COVID-19 LATAM Cases Total Cases: 6,194,618 Total Deaths: 242,957 As of 5 a.m. ET, Tuesday, August 18
Country/Area/ Territory Aruba
Cases in Last 7 Days Per 100,000 464
Deaths in Last 7 Days Per 100,000
All Time Cases Per 100,000
All Time Deaths Per 100,000
Total Cases
<1
Total Deaths
1,059 4 1,121 Recovered: 7,139,985 337 — 802 42 326 Total Countries, Areas and Territories with Confirmed Infections: 188 Turks and Caicos 218 — 791 5 298 Islands Peru 181 16 1,675 82 535,946
4
Colombia
180
5
960
31
476,659
15,371
Panama
171
3
1,976
43
82,543
1,788
Brazil
144
3
1,604
52
3,359,570
108,536
Costa Rica
104
1
582
6
29,084
304
Sint Maarten
Argentina
17 2 26,281
102
2
672
13
299,126
5,814
Suriname
102
3
534
8
3,077
48
Bahamas
100
1
345
5
1,329
19
Bolivia
84
4
892
36
101,223
4,123
Belize
78
<1
118
<1
452
3
Chile
67
2
2,069
56
387,502
10,513
Dominican Republic
59
1
816
14
86,737
1,481
Paraguay
42
<1
146
2
10,135
145
Ecuador
41
<1
596
36
101,751
6,083
Honduras
37
<1
532
17
50,995
1,583
El Salvador
36
<1
361
10
23,193
618
Guatemala
35
<1
365
14
62,944
2,389
Mexico
32
3
417
45
525,733
57,023
Venezuela
28
<1
121
<1
34,802
288
Trinidad and Tobago Guyana
22
<1
42
<1
588
12
18
<1
91
3
709
23
Bermuda
13
—
260
14
166
9
Nicaragua
3
<1
64
2
4,115
128
Cuba
3
—
30
<1
3,364
88
Barbados
3
—
53
1
152
7
Curaçao
3
—
23
<1
36
1
10 | Intelligence Update
G4S Corporate Risk Services
Uruguay
3
Jamaica
3
Haiti
2
Antigua and Barbuda Falkland Islands (Malvinas) Cayman Islands Montserrat
42
2
1,457
40
38
<1
1,129
14
<1
71
2
7,897
196
1
—
97
3
93
3
—
—
383
—
13
—
—
—
316
2
203
1
220
17
13
1
53
—
58
—
30
3
9
1
25
—
18
—
22
—
24
—
—
20
—
3
—
—
14
—
25
—
—
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
<1
British Virgin Islands
—
Dominica
—
Grenada Anguilla Saint Lucia
<1
— —
— — —
11 | Intelligence Update
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G4S Corporate Risk Services
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