October 2020 Nantucket Real Estate Market Insights

OCT 20

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights BY JEN ALLEN

MONTHLY SALES HIGHLIGHTS

HIGHEST COMMERCIAL SALE

HIGHEST RESIDENTIAL SALE

$20,000,000

$3,550,000

45 CLIFF ROAD MARKETED FOR [41 Days]

FISHER’S REVIEW

If you thought Nantucket real estate sales couldn’t get any hotter than last

HIGHEST LAND SALE

$11,000,000

31 WESTERN AVENUE MARKETED FOR [47 Days]

44 BREWSTER & 4-6 HARBORVIEW

[Private Sale]

KEY MARKET STATISTICS ALL PROPERTY TYPES

FY 2020

Transactions Dollar Volume ($in 000s)

FY 2019

% CHANGE YOY

5-YEAR AVG.

445

334

33% d

379

$1,340,126

$651,757

106% d

$927,560

6.6

5.7

16% d

6.6

Avg. Months on Market Sale Price to Last Ask Price

94%

94%

0

94%

October sales. October represented the

Active Listings (Oct)

281

436

-36% f

377

fourth consecutive month of historic

Months Supply of Inventory

6.3

12.6

-50% f

11.0

sales volume for the island market, with

New Contracts (Oct)

112

56

100% d

62

month’s record volume, take a look at

108 transactions totaling a whopping $361 million. This represented a respective 104 percent and 162 percent increase from the same period one year

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE ACTIVITY THROUGH OCT 2011–20

ago and the highest dollar volume on record. Cumulatively, for the 10 months ending October 31, 2020, there were 445 property transfers totaling $1.34

© 2 0 2 0 F I S H E R R E A L E S TAT E

basis and 70 percent on a dollar volume basis. Single-family homes sales hit

Dollar Volume

increase to 33 percent on a transaction

# of Transactions

billion. This brought the year-over-year

record numbers with rapid marketing times and minimal discounts. This kept inventory at record lows while contract activity showed just a slight shift in downward momentum. Here are Fisher’s October Market Insights...

Dollar Volume per Quarter

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4YTD

# of Transactions

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

1

DE O CC T 16 20

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE

Market Insights

BY JEN ALLEN SHALLEY

SINGLE-FAMILY DATA REVIEW RESIDENTIAL SALES ANALYSIS

HIGH-END RESIDENTIAL SALES ANALYSIS

RECORD VOLUME, RAPID ABSORPTION & VIBRANT HIGH-END

SALES SOAR IN $5M+ PRICE POINTS

2020

Total Transactions Total Sales Dollar Volume

2019

% Change

$5M–$10M

5-Year Avg (2016-20)

345

237

46% d

276

$1,182,201,037

$614,681,716

92% d

$782,295,562

>$10M

Transactions

Total Sales Volume

Transactions

2011

7

$41,020,000

1

Total Sales Volume

$11,800,000

2012

14

$98,300,000

2

$29,800,000 $80,029,000

Avg. Selling Price

$3,426,670

$2,593,594

32% d

$2,791,351

Median Selling Price

2013

$2,575,000

$1,900,000

36% d

$1,974,500

8

$58,766,300

6

2014

7.0

5.9

20% d

6.7

16

$98,887,500

6

$81,637,500

2015

11

$73,648,875

6

$82,000,000

Avg. Months on Market Avg. Price as % of Last Ask

94%

94%

0

94%

2016

18

$123,185,502

7

$90,525,000

Avg. Price as % of Original Ask

89%

90%

–1 f

90%

2017

24

$164,202,750

8

$101,290,000

Avg. Price as % of Assessed Value

131%

130%

1d

129%

2018

29

$186,472,000

8

$107,640,000

2019

24

$160,585,000

2

$30,670,000

2020

55

$351,427,000

10

$175,373,000

•

•

•

Single-family home sales (excluding condos, co-ops & covenant properties) during the month of October measured 85 transactions totaling $310 million. This is effectively double the transaction and dollar volume witnessed in both October 2019 and the five-year October average. Monthly dollar volume also slightly exceeded September 2020 levels, which previously set the record for the highest monthly dollar volume. The transactions brought the cumulative year-to-date total to 345 single-family home sales totaling $1.18 billion through October 31, 2020, a respective 46 percent and 92 percent increase from one year ago.

•

October property sales were notable not only for the extraordinary increase in high-end transactions (see next section) but also for the rapid sales timeline. On average, properties that sold in October were marketed for 144 days, nearly two months faster than the year-to-date average. That figure is a bit misleading as it was affected by several outlier properties that were marketed for more than one year. The other 62 percent of October transactions took place within 90 days, illustrating just how “hot” the Nantucket market was this summer when these properties went under contract.

With year-over-year transaction volume rising 33 percent and dollar volume vastly outpacing that increase by an additional 37 percent, there is only one thing that explains the gap – the high-end market. October sales illustrate a fiery high-end segment with 20 percent of all monthly transactions selling for $5 million or more. Those sales contributed $175 million, more than half of the total monthly dollar volume. The ultra-high-end, or sales above $10 million, were particularly active with five transactions taking place during the month. This compares to zero transactions in October 2019 and just four ultra-high-end sales during all of 2019.

•

These monthly sales add to what has been a remarkable year for high-end activity. As of October 31, 2020, there were 55 property transactions between $5 million and $10 million, more than double the activity witnessed just one year ago. For the ultra-high-end segment, there have been 10 transactions compared to just two in 2019.

•

These transactions aided in lowering high-end inventory to levels not seen in several years. In fact, since 2015, the number of ultra-high-end properties listed for sale ranged anywhere from 20 to 35 properties in October. As of October 31, 2020, there were just 13 properties remaining for sale. It’s a similar story for most of the million-dollar pricing segments between $5 million and $10 million. All but the $5 million to $6 million segment saw dramatically lower inventory levels as compared to one year ago.

Similar to the average marketing time, the average home sale price statistics don’t reveal the full story as several outlier sales drew the average down. Wherein the Nantucket market historically saw just a handful of properties trade at full asking price on an annual basis, October 2020 sales included 11 properties that sold for full asking price or higher.

MARKET INDICATORS CONTRACT ACTIVITY

NANTUCKET PROPERTY INVENTORY

NEW PURCHASE ACTIVITY HELD STRONG

# of Contracts

INVENTORY AT HISTORIC LOWS

© 2 0 2 0 F I S H E R R E A L E S TAT E

August

•

Total inventory figures remained at historic lows and measured the lowest level in at least five years. As of October 31, 2020, there were 285 properties listed for sale including residential, commercial and vacant land listings. This represented a decline of 35 percent from one year ago. The total months’ supply, or how long it would take to sell all listings based on trailing 12-month sales, measured 4 months for residential properties, six months for vacant land and 21 months for commercial properties.

•

Every price point with the exception of sub-$1 million properties had markedly less inventory than one year ago (and the only reason the sub-$1 million segment isn’t relatively lower is that there are only 11 properties listed). The $1 million to $2 million segment saw the largest yearover-year declines while the $4 million to $5 million price point was also considerably lower.

For the first time in a few years and for reasons mentioned above, ultra-high-end inventory above $10 million was also competitive. With vibrant transaction activity, many properties in this price point are trading more quickly, resulting in far less supply than historic norms.

September

October

•

Although contract activity moderated in October relative to August and September, total new purchase activity remained at historic levels. Recorded contracts (Offers to Purchase and Purchase & Sale Contracts excluding duplicates) for the monthly period ending October 31, 2020, totaled 111 properties, down from the 121 reported in August but exactly double the activity witnessed one year ago. It was also significantly higher than any October over the past five years.

•

Most of the contracts booked in October, 35 percent, were for properties last priced between $1 million and $2 million, slightly lower than the 39 percent for this segment in 2019. New contracts for properties listed between $3 million to $5 million also increased, while sales above $5 million continued to show solid activity as we approach year’s end.

•

In reviewing preliminary November data and seeing what is in the pipeline, the Nantucket market may well surpass $1.5 billion for full-year volume.

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

2

O C T 20

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE

Market Insights

BY JEN ALLEN

RESIDENTIAL SALES ANALYSIS RECORD VOLUME, RAPID ABSORPTION & VIBRANT HIGH-END

2020

Total Transactions

2019

% Change

5-Year Avg (2016–20)

345

237

46% d

276

$1,182,201,037

$614,681,716

92% d

$782,295,562

Avg. Selling Price

$3,426,670

$2,593,594

32% d

$2,791,351

Median Selling Price

$2,575,000

$1,900,000

36% d

$1,974,500

7.0

5.9

20% d

6.7

Avg. Price as % of Last Ask

94%

94%

0

94%

Avg. Price as % of Original Ask

89%

90%

–1 f

90%

Avg. Price as % of Assessed Value

131%

130%

1d

129%

Total Sales Dollar Volume

Avg. Months on Market

•

Single-family home sales (excluding condos, co-ops & covenant properties) during the month of October measured 85 transactions totaling $310 million. This is effectively double the transaction and dollar volume witnessed in both October 2019 and the five-year October average. Monthly dollar volume also slightly exceeded September 2020 levels, which previously set the record for the highest monthly dollar volume. The transactions brought the cumulative year-to-date total to 345 single-family home sales totaling $1.18 billion through October 31, 2020, a respective 46 percent and 92 percent increase from one year ago.

•

October property sales were notable not only for the extraordinary increase in high-end transactions (see next section) but also for the rapid sales timeline. On average, properties that sold in October were marketed for 144 days, nearly two months faster than the year-to-date average. That figure is a bit misleading as it was affected by several outlier properties that were marketed for more than one year. The other 62 percent of October transactions took place within 90 days, illustrating just how “hot” the Nantucket market was this summer when these properties went under contract.

•

Similar to the average marketing time, the average home sale price statistics don’t reveal the full story as several outlier sales drew the average down. Wherein the Nantucket market historically saw just a handful of properties trade at full asking price on an annual basis, October 2020 sales included 11 properties that sold for full asking price or higher.

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

3

O C T 20

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE

Market Insights

BY JEN ALLEN

HIGH-END RESIDENTIAL SALES ANALYSIS SALES SOAR IN $5M+ PRICE POINTS

$5M–$10M

>$10M

Transactions

Total Sales Volume

Transactions

Total Sales Volume

2011

7

$41,020,000

1

$11,800,000

2012

14

$98,300,000

2

$29,800,000

2013

8

$58,766,300

6

$80,029,000

2014

16

$98,887,500

6

$81,637,500

2015

11

$73,648,875

6

$82,000,000

2016

18

$123,185,502

7

$90,525,000

2017

24

$164,202,750

8

$101,290,000

2018

29

$186,472,000

8

$107,640,000

2019

24

$160,585,000

2

$30,670,000

2020

55

$351,427,000

10

$175,373,000

•

With year-over-year transaction volume rising 33 percent and dollar volume vastly outpacing that increase by an additional 37 percent, there is only one thing that explains the gap – the high-end market. October sales illustrate a fiery high-end segment with 20 percent of all monthly transactions selling for $5 million or more. Those sales contributed $175 million, more than half of the total monthly dollar volume. The ultra-high-end, or sales above $10 million, were particularly active with five transactions taking place during the month. This compares to zero transactions in October 2019 and just four ultra-high-end sales during all of 2019.

•

These monthly sales add to what has been a remarkable year for high-end activity. As of October 31, 2020, there were 55 property transactions between $5 million and $10 million, more than double the activity witnessed just one year ago. For the ultra-high-end segment, there have been 10 transactions compared to just two in 2019.

•

These transactions aided in lowering high-end inventory to levels not seen in several years. In fact, since 2015, the number of ultra-high-end properties listed for sale ranged anywhere from 20 to 35 properties in October. As of October 31, 2020, there were just 13 properties remaining for sale. It’s a similar story for most of the million-dollar pricing segments between $5 million and $10 million. All but the $5 million to $6 million segment saw dramatically lower inventory levels as compared to one year ago.

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

4

O C T 20

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE

Market Insights

BY JEN ALLEN

NANTUCKET PROPERTY INVENTORY INVENTORY AT HISTORIC LOWS

•

Total inventory figures remained at historic lows and measured the lowest level in at least five years. As of October 31, 2020, there were 285 properties listed for sale including residential, commercial and vacant land listings. This represented a decline of 35 percent from one year ago. The total months’ supply, or how long it would take to sell all listings based on trailing 12-month sales, measured 4 months for residential properties, six months for vacant land and 21 months for commercial properties.

•

Every price point with the exception of sub-$1 million properties had markedly less inventory than one year ago. (And the only reason the sub-$1 million segment isn’t relatively lower is that that are only 11 properties listed). The $1 million to $2 million segment saw the largest yearover-year declines while the $4 million to $5 million price point was also considerably lower.

And, for the first time in a few years and for reasons mentioned above, ultra-high-end inventory above $10 million was also competitive. With vibrant transaction activity, many properties in this price point are trading more quickly, resulting in far less supply than historic norms.

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

5

Market Insights

BY JEN ALLEN

CONTRACT ACTIVITY NEW PURCHASE ACTIVITY HELD STRONG

# of Contracts

O C T 20

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE

August

September

October

•

Although contract activity moderated in October relative to August and September, total new purchase activity remained at historic levels. Recorded contracts (Offers to Purchase and Purchase & Sale Contracts excluding duplicates) for the monthly period ending October 31, 2020, totaled 111 properties, down from the 121 reported in August but exactly double the activity witnessed one year ago. It was also significantly higher than any October over the past five years.

•

Most of the contracts booked in October, 35 percent, were for properties last priced between $1 million and $2 million, slightly lower than the 39 percent for this segment in 2019. New contracts for properties listed between $3 million to $5 million also increased, while sales above $5 million continued to show solid activity as we approach year’s end.

•

In reviewing preliminary November data and seeing what is in the pipeline, the Nantucket market may well surpass $1.5 billion for full-year volume.

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

6