November Market Insights - Nantucket Real Estate

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights BY JEN ALLEN MONTHLY SALES HIGHLIGHTS

RECENT RESALE

HIGHEST SALE

$14,900,000

$6,400,000

88 POCOMO ROAD MARKETED FOR [2,645 Days]

KEY MARKET STATISTICS

REVIEW

ALL PROPERTY TYPES

FY 2021

Transactions

FY 2020

% CHANGE YOY

5-YEAR AVG.

25% d

477

$1,555,929

29% d

$1,284,524

7.2

-39% f

6.2

96%

94%

2d

94%

Active Listings (Nov)

87

282

-69% f

301

Months Supply of Inventory

1.4

5.9

-77% f

9.1

New Contracts (Nov)

36

71

-49% f

46

Dollar Volume ($in 000s)

657

527

$2,014,425 4.4

Avg. Months on Market Sale Price to Last Ask Price

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE ACTIVITY THROUGH NOVEMBER 2011–21

# of Transactions

Although November real estate sales declined significantly from the record 2021 monthly figures set in October, activity was still mighty impressive.

November transactions included 67 property transfers totaling $211 million, just shy of the record November volume posted in 2020. These sales buoyed cumulative figures through November 30, 2021 to 657 transactions totaling $2.01 billion, a respective 25 percent and 29 percent increase from one year ago. Single-family home transactions continued to see recordlow marketing times but also recordlow inventory. Commercial activity not only posted a monstrous turnaround from one year ago but is poised to set a historic record in transaction and dollar volume. New contract activity continued its downward trend in an ever-dwindling property inventory environment but is still poised to surpass $2.3 billion. Here are Fisher’s November Market Insights...

$6,100,000

2 NORTH STAR LANE SOLD FOR $4.275M IN 2018

Dollar Volume

NOV 21

34 EASTON STREET MARKETED FOR [33 Days]

FISHER’S

LONGEST SALE

Dollar Volume per Quarter

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 YTD

# of Transactions

© 2 0 2 1 F I S H E R R E A L E S TAT E

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

1

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights

BY JEN ALLEN

RESIDENTIAL SALES ACTIVITY

SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES

COMMERCIAL SALES SUMMARY

HIGH DEMAND CONTINUED TO DRIVE RECORD-SETTING YEAR

RECORD NUMBER OF YTD COMMERCIAL SALES

2021

Total Transactions Total Sales Dollar Volume Avg. Selling Price Median Selling Price

5-Year Avg (2017-21)

% Change

444

405

10% d

343

$1,581,588,937

$1,366,901,674

16% d

$1,059,300,231

Transactions Total Sales Dollar Volume

$3,562,137

$3,375,066

6% d

$3,014,386

Avg. Selling Price

$2,575,000

8% d

$2,208,020

Median Selling Price

3.8

7.8

-51% f

6.2

96%

94%

2d

94%

Avg. Price as % of Last Ask

Avg. Price as % of Last Ask Avg. Price as % of Original Ask Avg. Price as % of Assessed Value

94%

89%

5d

90%

Avg. Price as % of Original Ask

130%

30d

135%

Avg. Price as % of Assessed Value

Single-family home sales (excluding condos, co-ops & covenant properties) during the month of November measured 55 transactions totaling $179.5 million, a slight decline from the monthly sales activity one year ago. These transactions brought the year-to-date tally to 444 single-family home sales totaling $1.58 billion through November 30, 2021, the highest single-family home transaction and dollar volume ever recorded for any similar period.

•

Though the focus is often on the high-end of the market, sales between $1 million and $2 million represented the lion’s share of activity with 30 percent of total transaction volume on a year-to-date basis. Perhaps surprisingly in an environment of robust appreciation, this was two percent higher than one year ago but three percent lower than the five-year average. Not surprisingly, home sales for less than one million dwindled to just four percent of transaction activity, down six percent from the five-year average. This is the biggest shift (positive or negative) over the last five years for any price point. Home sales between $3 million and $4 million saw a modest two percent year-overyear increase but have gained four percent of total activity since 2016. All other price points were within one to three percentage points of the five-year average.

The single biggest shift in monthly home sale metrics occurred in the average marketing time.

Homes sales during November 2021 occurred within 2.7 months of the initial listing date, compared to 12.1 months for November transactions a year ago. On a year-to-date basis, homes sold within 3.8 months of marketing, compared to 7.8 months at this time in 2020. This speed was fueled by the fact that there were just 71 homes for sale at the end of month whereas this time last year, there were 189 homes for sale. Interestingly, the median home sale value increased just eight percent in the last 12 months compared to a rise of 37 percent between the same period in 2019 and 2020.

2020

% Change

5 Year Avg (2017–21)

33

10

230% d

16

$157,940,484

$20,491,632

671% d

$57,711,423

$4,786,075

$2,049,163

134% d

$2,959,573

$2,400,000

$2,330,000

3% d

$2,144,399

6.8

6.1

12% d

6.2

91%

91%

0

93%

89%

90%

-1 f

92%

152%

145%

7d

145%

Avg. Months on Market

160%

•

•

2021

$2,769,600

Avg. Months on Market

NOV 21

2020

•

One of the biggest turnarounds in the Nantucket real estate market over the last 12 months has been commercial transaction activity. One year ago, we were commenting on how few commercial transactions there were in 2020 as compared to the historic norm. Well, that more than reversed in 2021 and it’s something we will delve further into in our 2021 Year in Review. Through November 30, 2021, there were 33 commercial transactions totaling $158 million, more than triple the transaction volume and more than seven times the dollar volume for the same period in 2020. These figures also dwarfed the five-year average for both metrics.

•

While there were no commercial transactions during the month of November, the year has otherwise been chock full of transactions ranging from as small as $335,000 for an 890 square foot property to $38.5 million for one of Blue Flag Development’s larger portfolio acquisitions. The price per square foot of these transactions spanned from $360 for a mid-island location to upwards of $2500 for Main Street. And while each transaction is different in myriad ways, rendering comparisons virtually useless, one thing is for certain – there is a big appetite for commercial space on the island.

•

As of November 30, 2021, there were only five commercial properties listed for sale as compared to the 16 properties listed one year ago. They ranged from a second floor, Main Street condo listed for $795,000, to a consortium of mixed use residential/commercial property on Bartlett Road for $2.225 million.

FORWARD MARKET INDICATORS

PROJECTED MONTHS ON MARKET FOR SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES

HISTORICAL COMPARISON OF CONTRACT ACTIVITY

DRAMATIC REDUCTION IN MARKETING TIMES CONTINUED

Trailing 12-Mo Sales

SFH Inventory

NEW PURCHASE AGREEMENTS TRAILED HISTORIC NORM

Projected MOM

September

October

November

•

As of November 30, 2021, there were a total of 87 actively listed properties on the entire island, a nearly 70 percent decline from the 282 properties listed at the same time one year ago. This included 78 residential properties (including condos, multi-family properties and co-ops), four parcels of land and five commercial properties. The absorption rate, or projected time until sale, was just one month for all property types combined.

•

Though there is normally a seasonal decline in new contracts during this time of year, November’s activity seemed more pronounced most likely due to the lack of supply to meet demand. Offers to Purchase and Purchase & Sale Contracts (excluding duplicates) measured just 36, down from 52 contracts during October, and less than half of the contracts recorded in November 2020.

•

Given the reduction in inventory across the board, it’s an interesting time to evaluate how the projected months on market timeline has shifted by price point for residential properties. For this analysis we compared trailing 12-month sales to the current inventory for each million-dollar price point of singlefamily homes (excluding condo, multi-family properties and co-ops). If one assumes sales activity will continue at the trailing 12-month pace, the absorption projection ranged from less than one month ($1M-$2M properties) to a maximum of five months ($10M + properties) and were markedly faster than one year ago. In fact, the projected months on market for properties listed between $8 million to $9 million was 18 months one year ago. As of November 30, 2021, it was just 4.5 months. Properties listed between $4 million and $5 million were projected to sell in nine months in 2020. That declined to just two months in 2021. The only price point that didn’t see a dramatic drop in absorption was the $5 million to $6 million price point. And a quick glance at some of the listings suggests it may still be possible to overprice properties in this market.

•

Most of the contracts, 33 percent, were for properties last priced between $1 million and $2 million, which may come as a surprise given inventory levels in this segment. As a result, nearly every property in this price point received multiple bids within the first 48 hours, leading to what are rumored to be many full- or above-ask contract prices. The next price point to see the bulk of new purchase activity, at 25 percent, was the $2 million and $3 million price point. The ultra-high end of the market saw just one new contract, compared to three one year ago, but that was likely due to reduced inventory and the fact that the upper end of the market saw more activity earlier in the year than is typical.

•

As of the production of this report, December 2021 sales measured $135 million, placing the market close to $2.2 billion. There were also $212 million in booked contracts (based on last list prices not selling prices), indicating the Nantucket real estate market will see the strongest year in history by a healthy margin.

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

2

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights

BY JEN ALLEN

SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES HIGH DEMAND CONTINUED TO DRIVE RECORD-SETTING YEAR 2021

Total Transactions

% Change

5-Year Avg (2017-21)

444

405

10% d

343

$1,581,588,937

$1,366,901,674

16% d

$1,059,300,231

$3,562,137

$3,375,066

6% d

$3,014,386

$2,769,600

$2,575,000

8% d

$2,208,020

3.8

7.8

-51% f

6.2

Avg. Price as % of Last Ask

96%

94%

2d

94%

Avg. Price as % of Original Ask

94%

89%

5d

90%

160%

130%

30d

135%

Total Sales Dollar Volume Avg. Selling Price Median Selling Price Avg. Months on Market

NOV 21

2020

Avg. Price as % of Assessed Value

•

Single-family home sales (excluding condos, co-ops & covenant properties) during the month of November measured 55 transactions totaling $179.5 million, a slight decline from the monthly sales activity one year ago. These transactions brought the year-to-date tally to 444 single-family home sales totaling $1.58 billion through November 30, 2021, the highest single-family home transaction and dollar volume ever recorded for any similar period.

•

Though the focus is often on the high-end of the market, sales between $1 million and $2 million represented the lion’s share of activity with 30 percent of total transaction volume on a year-to-date basis.

Perhaps surprisingly in an environment of robust appreciation, this was two percent higher than one year ago but three percent lower than the five-year average. Not surprisingly, home sales for less than one million dwindled to just four percent of transaction activity, down six percent from the five-year average.

This is the biggest shift (positive or negative) over the last five years for any price point. Home sales between $3 million and $4 million saw a modest two percent year-over-year increase but have gained four percent of total activity since 2016. All other price points were within one to three percentage points of the five-year average.

•

The single biggest shift in monthly home sale metrics occurred in the average marketing time. Homes sales during November 2021 occurred within 2.7 months of the initial listing date, compared to 12.1 months for November transactions a year ago. On a year-to-date basis, homes sold within 3.8 months of marketing, compared to 7.8 months at this time in 2020. This speed was fueled by the fact that there were just 71 homes for sale at the end of month whereas this time last year, there were 189 homes for sale. Interestingly, the median home sale value increased just eight percent in the last 12 months compared to a rise of 37 percent between the same period in 2019 and 2020.

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

3

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights

BY JEN ALLEN

COMMERCIAL SALES SUMMARY RECORD NUMBER OF YTD COMMERCIAL SALES

2021

Transactions

% Change

5 Year Avg (2017–21)

33

10

230% d

16

$157,940,484

$20,491,632

671% d

$57,711,423

$4,786,075

$2,049,163

134% d

$2,959,573

$2,400,000

$2,330,000

3% d

$2,144,399

6.8

6.1

12% d

6.2

Avg. Price as % of Last Ask

91%

91%

0

93%

Avg. Price as % of Original Ask

89%

90%

-1 f

92%

152%

145%

7d

145%

Total Sales Dollar Volume Avg. Selling Price Median Selling Price Avg. Months on Market

NOV 21

2020

Avg. Price as % of Assessed Value

•

One of the biggest turnarounds in the Nantucket real estate market over the last 12 months has been commercial transaction activity. One year ago, we were commenting on how few commercial transactions there were in 2020 as compared to the historic norm. Well, that more than reversed in 2021 and it’s something we will delve further into in our 2021 Year in Review. Through November 30, 2021, there were 33 commercial transactions totaling $158 million, more than triple the transaction volume and more than seven times the dollar volume for the same period in 2020. These figures also dwarfed the five-year average for both metrics.

•

While there were no commercial transactions during the month of November, the year has otherwise been chock full of transactions ranging from as small as $335,000 for an 890 square foot property to $38.5 million for one of Blue Flag Development’s larger portfolio acquisitions. The price per square foot of these transactions spanned from $360 for a mid-island location to upwards of $2500 for Main Street. And while each transaction is different in myriad ways, rendering comparisons virtually useless, one thing is for certain – there is a big appetite for commercial space on the island.

•

As of November 30, 2021, there were only five commercial properties listed for sale as compared to the 16 properties listed one year ago. They ranged from a second floor, Main Street condo listed for $795,000, to a consortium of mixed use residential/commercial property on Bartlett Road for $2.225 million.

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

4

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights

BY JEN ALLEN

PROJECTED MONTHS ON MARKET FOR SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES

NOV 21

DRAMATIC REDUCTION IN MARKETING TIMES CONTINUED

Trailing 12-Mo Sales

SFH Inventory

Projected MOM

•

As of November 30, 2021, there were a total of 87 actively listed properties on the entire island, a nearly 70 percent decline from the 282 properties listed at the same time one year ago. This included 78 residential properties (including condos, multi-family properties and co-ops), four parcels of land and five commercial properties. The absorption rate, or projected time until sale, was just one month for all property types combined.

•

Given the reduction in inventory across the board, it’s an interesting time to evaluate how the projected months on market timeline has shifted by price point for residential properties. For this analysis we compared trailing 12-month sales to the current inventory for each million-dollar price point of single-family homes (excluding condo, multi-family properties and co-ops). If one assumes sales activity will continue at the trailing 12-month pace, the absorption projection ranged from less than one month ($1M-$2M properties) to a maximum of five months ($10M + properties) and were markedly faster than one year ago. In fact, the projected months on market for properties listed between $8 million to $9 million was 18 months one year ago. As of November 30, 2021, it was just 4.5 months. Properties listed between $4 million and $5 million were projected to sell in nine months in 2020. That declined to just two months in 2021. The only price point that didn’t see a dramatic drop in absorption was the $5 million to $6 million price point. And a quick glance at some of the listings suggests it may still be possible to overprice properties in this market.

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

5

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights

BY JEN ALLEN

HISTORICAL COMPARISON OF CONTRACTUAL ACTIVITY

NOV 21

NEW PURCHASE AGREEMENTS TRAILED HISTORIC NORM

September

October

November

•

Though there is normally a seasonal decline in new contracts during this time of year, November’s activity seemed more pronounced most likely due to the lack of supply to meet demand. Offers to Purchase and Purchase & Sale Contracts (excluding duplicates) measured just 36, down from 52 contracts during October, and less than half of the contracts recorded in November 2020.

•

Most of the contracts, 33 percent, were for properties last priced between $1 million and $2 million, which may come as a surprise given inventory levels in this segment. As a result, nearly every property in this price point received multiple bids within the first 48 hours, leading to what are rumored to be many full- or above-ask contract prices. The next price point to see the bulk of new purchase activity, at 25 percent, was the $2 million and $3 million price point. The ultra-high end of the market saw just one new contract, compared to three one year ago, but that was likely due to reduced inventory and the fact that the upper end of the market saw more activity earlier in the year than is typical.

•

As of the production of this report, December 2021 sales measured $135 million, placing the market close to $2.2 billion. There were also $212 million in booked contracts (based on last list prices not selling prices), indicating the Nantucket real estate market will see the strongest year in history by a healthy margin.

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

6