March 2019 Nantucket Market Insights from Fisher Real Estate

MAR 19

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE

Market Insights BY JEN SHALLEY ALLEN MONTHLY SALES HIGHLIGHTS

HIGHEST SALE

LOWEST SALE

$4,900,000

$410,000

17 MAIN STREET, UNIT 1 MARKETED FOR [236 days]

FISHER’S REVIEW

Despite a rather seasonable first three months of the year (as far as New England winters go), the 2019 real estate market hasn’t quite caught the spark that was setting all the first quarter records this time last year.

Perhaps it was the lack of nor’easters

FASTEST SALE

$529,000

3A SUN ISLAND ROAD #4 PRIVATE SALE

4A GOLDFINCH DRIVE MARKETED FOR [1 day]

KEY MARKET STATISTICS ALL PROPERTY TYPES

Transactions

JAN-MAR FY19

JAN-MAR FY18

% CHANGE YOY

75

122

–39% f

$141,416

$266,854

–47% f

9

7.8

15% d

Sale Price to Last Ask Price

93%

94%

–1

Active Listings (Mar)

284

244

16% d

8.5

6.1

39% d

31

29

7% d

Dollar Volume ($in 000s) Avg. Month on Market

Months Supply of Inventory New Contracts (Mar)

this year that kept buyers at bay?

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE ACTIVITY

Nonetheless, this year’s start had

THROUGH MAR 2011–19

difficulty keeping pace with the 1Q18 performance anomaly. On the other hand, comparing 1Q19 results with the

may be a more appropriate measure for the health of the current market.

In great news looking forward, new

Dollar Volume

little bit better and, quite honestly,

# of Transactions

five-year average makes us all feel a

contract activity in March surpassed all other March periods and sets the tone for a more robust second quarter. Here are Fisher’s first quarter market insights…

Dollar Volume

# of Transactions

f

MA DE C R 16 19

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE RESIDENTIAL SALES ACTIVITY:

VACANT LAND SALES SUMMARY

MODERATED START TO 2019; SUB-$1M SALES DECLINE SIGNIFICANTLY

REDUCED LAND INVENTORY & DECLINE IN SALES

Transactions Total Sales Dollar Volume

•

•

BY JEN SHALLEY ALLEN

1Q RESIDENTIAL & VACANT LAND SALES SUMMARY

2019

•

Market Insights

2018

% Change

5 Year Avg (2015–19)

2019

44

82

–46% f

61

$93,902,500

$209,718,419

–55% f

$143,682,966

Total Transactions Total Sales Dollar Volume

2018

% Change

5 Year Avg (2015–19)

44

82

–46% f

61

$93,902,500

$209,718,419

–55% f

$143,682,966

Avg. Selling Price

$2,134,148

$2,557,542

–17% f

$2,356,218

Avg. Selling Price

$2,134,148

$2,557,542

–17% f

$2,356,218

Median Selling Price

$1,637,500

$1,722,500

–5% f

$1,720,850

Median Selling Price

$1,637,500

$1,722,500

–5% f

$1,720,850

Avg. Months on Market

10.4

8.6

21% d

8.56

Avg. Months on Market

10.4

8.6

21% d

8.6

Avg. Price as % of Last Ask

94%

94%

0% d

93%

Avg. Price as % of Last Ask

94%

94%

0% d

93%

Avg. Price as % of Original Ask

88%

89%

–1% f

88%

Avg. Price as % of Assessed Value

131%

1238%

–4% d

127%

Avg. Price as % of Original Ask

88%

89%

–1% f

88%

Avg. Price as % of Assessed Value

131%

128%

4% d

127%

Single-family home sales (excluding condos, multi-family homes, co-ops & Nantucket covenant properties) fell 46 percent behind 2018 sales while dollar volume declined by 55 percent. A total of 75 properties, 44 of which were single-family homes, sold through March 31, 2019. This compares to a respective 122 properties and 82 single-family homes sold during the same period one year ago. While it’s not particularly concerning to see 1Q19 off from 1Q18, given that 1Q18 set the highest number of transactions for the first quarter period since the 100 homes sold in 1Q06, it’s a bit eye-raising to see that 1Q19 trailed the five-year average. In fact, 1Q19 was off approximately 28 percent on a transaction basis and 36 percent on a dollar volume basis.

If, however, we exclude 1Q18 from the data set and use a four-year average, we see that 1Q19 is right in line with previous first quarter performances. Time will tell where the market goes from here…

In reviewing 2019 sales by price point, against both 2018 and the 5-year average, homes sales for less than $1 million declined to just six transactions compared to 18 in 2018 and 15 for the five-year average. Not surprisingly, homes priced between $1 million and $2 million saw the most amount of activity with 20 transactions – this is largely in line with historic trends. Sales activity for home sales above $5M was virtually non-existent, with just two transactions so far in 2019, wherein 11 occurred in 2018 and nine for the five-year average.

The median home sale price saw a modest decline while the average marketing time lengthened; the trend line in these data points will be more insightful as more transactions are added throughout the year. Pricing metrics were largely steady, while single-family inventory levels were approximately 22 percent higher than one year ago and nearly identical to levels seen at the end of 1Q17.

•

This time last year we were reporting on record transaction volume in the overall market and in vacant land sales. So far, 2019 seems to be settling back into a more moderated sales pace. Through March 31, 2019, 12 vacant land transactions totaling $13.2M took place. This compares to 24 transactions totaling $37.1M in 2018 and 17 transactions totaling $21M for the five-year average. The decline in lot sales stemmed not just from an overall reduction in market activity, but also from the reduced number of available lots for sale. As of March 31, 2019, the number of vacant land listings totaled 44 properties as compared to the 50 listed parcels of land in 2018.

•

The 1Q19 land transactions ranged from the $550,000 sale of a .68-acre Mid-island lot to a $2.25 million sale of 3.6 acres in the Quidnet area. While difficult to truly compare land sales from year to year (given the relatively low number of transactions and the significant differences in size, location and type) the median selling price of a vacant lot sold during the first quarter declined from $823,550 for the five-year average to $785,250 for 1Q19. Despite the decline in inventory (which was at a historical low), the average marketing time rose just over one month from the same time one year ago but was in line with the five-year average.

FORWARD MARKET INDICATORS

INVENTORY LEVELS BY PRICE POINT

HISTORICAL COMPARISON OF CONTRACT ACTIVITY

THREE-YEAR HISTORY SHOWS RISE IN $1M TO $2M INVENTORY

©2019 FISHER REAL ESTATE

MARCH PURCHASE AGREEMENTS RISE

•

As of March 31, 2019, total inventory for all Nantucket property types (residential, land and commercial properties) totaled 284 properties compared to 244 properties one year ago and 299 in 2017. The only property types to see a year-to-year decline in the number of active listings were multi-family properties and land.

•

In looking at the three-year history of single-family listings by price point as of March 31st each year, the biggest outlier is the $1 million to $2 million price point.

Listings measured 46 properties in 2017 and 41 properties in 2018, but jumped to 64 listed properties as of March 31, 2019. It is the only price point to see such a sizable increase, largely due to the appreciation that has occurred in this segment of the market.

•

All other single-family price points remained largely steady and nearly every price segment saw a rise in inventory as compared to 2018. The only exception to this is the $5M to $6M price point which saw a decline of five listings from one year ago.

Given that much of the seasonal inventory will come on the market in the next three months, we will be able to better discern trends in the coming months.

•

Continuing the yearover-year first quarter narrative, 1Q19 contract activity trailed 1Q18 by twenty-two percent and was more in line with 1Q15-1Q17 results.

In total, there were 73 Offers and Purchase and Sale agreements recorded (duplicates excluded). What is most telling about forward momentum, however, is that new purchase contracts surged in March and were higher than during any of the past five years. Boding well for the upcoming second quarter results, March activity included 31 new contracts. Anecdotally, April contract activity also felt quite robust so we will compare that in next month’s report to determine if 2019 was simply off to a more subdued first quarter start but will improve throughout the year.

•

Most of the first quarter contracts, 35 percent, were for properties last priced between $1 million and $2 million, slightly lower than the 41 percent for this segment in 1Q18. New contract activity for the $2 million to $3 million price point rose from one year ago, as did contracts for $3 million to $4 million properties. There was one new recorded contract for a property priced between $7 million and $8 million, wherein there were no recorded contracts in this price point at this time last year.