Perry Campaign Advertising Did they lead with the wrong message? Overview Evolving Strategies executed an online message experiment testing pairs of positive and negative ads about Romney, Gingrich, and Perry. Our first analysis of the data identified the impact of Gingrich and Romney ads on candidate ranking. We found that Gingrichʼs support was decimated when respondents were exposed to negative advertising, anticipating his subsequent decline in the polls. The current analysis quantifies the effectiveness of four Perry ads and one clip of Perry speaking at a forum. We utilized a non-probability, opt-in respondent sample of 672 Republicans fielded December 6-8th. The Perry campaign kicked off advertising in South Carolina with a spot called “Values,” continuing the focus on his social conservative credentials that characterized his disappointing Iowa effort. Clearly, traditional message-testing results inside the Perry campaign must have indicated that the “Values” ad and a socialissues theme was promising. Traditional ad-testing through survey questions, focus-groups and dial-meters cannot identify a true causal impact from ads or quantify ad effectiveness. Using well-established methods and analyses from the fields of political behavior, experimental psychology, and behavioral economics, we identified true causal impacts on vote choice. Standard polls give you a snapshot of where the public is. ES shows you where the public is, where itʼs going, and why.
Summary Analysis Our experiment indicates that the Perry campaign led with a relatively ineffective message - the “Values” ad - in Iowa and South Carolina. Although the movement was limited, Perryʼs standing increased most when respondents viewed his “Outsider” ad, indicating a potentially lost opportunity to regain his footing in the GOP primary. •
The “Values” ad is not effective at increasing Perryʼs standing.
•
Perryʼs “Outsider” ad stands out as the most effective Perry ad we tested.
•
Perryʼs standing increased only modestly even with the most effective ads.
•
The Perry campaign appears to have advanced a relatively ineffective lead message in his attempt to rebound from his early fall in the primary race.
evolving-strategies.com | 703.373.7384 | info@evolving-strategies.com
1