GOP Primary Dynamics The Impact of Advertising on Candidate Support Overview Evolving Strategies is the first to provide objective, scientific evidence of Newt Gingrich’s vulnerability in the primary race. Some analysts claim Gingrich’s long career means that the public already knows the candidate, and they have priced his negative “baggage” into his stock. Still others argue voters don’t know Gingrich, what he stands for, or what he’s been doing since leaving office. In the past week, new attack ads against Gingrich have hit the air. Will support for Gingrich hold or collapse under attack? Does Romney gain support in the midst of all the negatives? And are voters willing to give Perry a second look? These questions are impossible to answer with standard surveys. That’s why Evolving Strategies executed an online message experiment testing pairs of positive and negative ads about Romney, Gingrich, and Perry. We utilized a non-probability, opt-in respondent sample of 672 Republicans fielded December 6-8th. Using well-established methods and analyses from the fields of political behavior, experimental psychology, and behavioral economics, we identified true causal impacts on vote choice. Standard polls give you a snapshot of where the public is. ES shows you where the public is, where it’s going, and why.
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